Radiocephalic Arteriovenous Fistula Patency and Use

Temporal trends in hemodialysis access creation during the fistula first era

OBJECTIVE

Although forearm arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are the preferred initial vascular access for hemodialysis based on national guidelines, there are no population-level studies evaluating trends in creation of forearm vs upper arm AVFs and arteriovenous grafts (AVGs). The purpose of this study was to report temporal trends in first-time permanent hemodialysis access type, and to assess the effect of national initiatives on rates of AVF placement.

METHODS

Retrospective cross-sectional study (2012-2022) utilizing the Vascular Quality Initiative database. All patients older than 18 years with creation of first-time upper extremity surgical hemodialysis access were included. Anatomic location of the AVF or AVG (forearm vs upper arm) was defined based on inflow artery, outflow vein, and presumed cannulation zone. Primary analysis examined temporal trends in rates of forearm vs upper arm AVFs and AVGs using time series analyses (modified Mann-Kendall test). Subgroup analyses examined rates of access configuration stratified by age, sex, race, dialysis, and socioeconomic status. Interrupted time series analysis was performed to assess the effect of the 2015 Fistula First Catheter Last initiative on rates of AVFs.

RESULTS

Of the 52,170 accesses, 57.9% were upper arm AVFs, 25.2% were forearm AVFs, 15.4% were upper arm AVGs, and 1.5% were forearm AVGs. From 2012 to 2022, there was no significant change in overall rates of forearm or upper arm AVFs. There was a numerical increase in upper arm AVGs (13.9 to 18.2 per 100; P = .09), whereas forearm AVGs significantly declined (1.8 to 0.7 per 100; P = .02). In subgroup analyses, we observed a decrease in forearm AVFs among men (33.1 to 28.7 per 100; P = .04) and disadvantaged (Area Deprivation Index percentile ≥50) patients (29.0 to 20.7 per 100; P = .04), whereas female (17.2 to 23.1 per 100; P = .03), Black (15.6 to 24.5 per 100; P < .01), elderly (age ≥80 years) (18.7 to 32.5 per 100; P < .01), and disadvantaged (13.6 to 20.5 per 100; P < .01) patients had a significant increase in upper arm AVGs. The Fistula First Catheter Last initiative had no effect on the rate of AVF placement (83.2 to 83.7 per 100; P=.37).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite national initiatives to promote autogenous vascular access, the rates of first-time AVFs have remained relatively constant, with forearm AVFs only representing one-quarter of all permanent surgical accesses. Furthermore, elderly, Black, female, and disadvantaged patients saw an increase in upper arm AVGs. Further efforts to elucidate factors associated with forearm AVF placement, as well as potential physician, center, and regional variation is warranted.

Computer-assisted image analysis of preexisting histological patterns of the cephalic vein to predict wrist arteriovenous fistula non-maturation

BACKGROUND

We used computer-assisted image analysis to determine whether preexisting histological features of the cephalic vein influence the risk of non-maturation of wrist fistulas.

METHODS

This study focused on patients aged 20-80 years who underwent their first wrist fistula creation. A total of 206 patients participated, and vein samples for Masson's trichrome staining were collected from 134 patients. From these, 94 patients provided a complete girth of the venous specimen for automatic image analysis. Maturation was assessed using ultrasound within 90 days after surgery.

RESULTS

The collagen to muscle ratio in the target vein, measured by computer-assisted imaging, was a strong predictor of non-maturation in wrist fistulas. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.864 (95% confidence interval of 0.782-0.946, p < 0.001). The optimal cut-off value for the ratio was 1.138, as determined by the Youden index maximum method, with a sensitivity of 89.0% and specificity of 71.4%. For easy application, we used a cutoff value of 1.0; the non-maturation rates for patients with ratios >1 and ≤ 1 were 51.7% (15 out of 29 patients) and 9.2% (6 out of 65 patients), respectively. Chi-square testing revealed significantly different non-maturation rates between the two groups (X2 (1, N = 94) = 20.9, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Computer-assisted image interpretation can help to quantify the preexisting histological patterns of the cephalic vein, while the collagen-to-muscle ratio can predict non-maturation of wrist fistula development at an early stage.

Predicting recurrent interventions after radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation with machine learning and the PREDICT-AVF web app

OBJECTIVE

Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) guidelines discourage ongoing access salvage attempts after two interventions prior to successful use or more than three interventions per year overall. The goal was to develop a tool for prediction of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula (AVF) intervention requirements to help guide shared decision-making about access appropriateness.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of 914 adult patients in the United States and Canada undergoing radiocephalic AVF creation at one of the 39 centers participating in the PATENCY-1 or -2 trials. Clinical data, including demographics, comorbidities, access history, anatomic features, and post-operative ultrasound measurements at 4-6 and 12 weeks were used to predict recurrent interventions required at 1 year postoperatively. Cox proportional hazards, random survival forest, pooled logistic, and elastic net recurrent event survival prediction models were built using a combination of baseline characteristics and post-operative ultrasound measurements. A web application was created, which generates patient-specific predictions contextualized with the KDOQI guidelines.

RESULTS

Patients underwent an estimated 1.04 (95% CI 0.94-1.13) interventions in the first year. Mean (SD) age was 57 (13) years; 22% were female. Radiocephalic AVFs were created at the snuffbox (2%), wrist (74%), or proximal forearm (24%). Using baseline characteristics, the random survival forest model performed best, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.82) at 1 year. The addition of ultrasound information to baseline characteristics did not substantially improve performance; however, Cox models using either 4-6- or 12-week post-operative ultrasound information alone had the best discrimination performance, with AUROCs of 0.77 (0.70-0.85) and 0.76 (0.70-0.83) at 1 year. The interactive web application is deployed at https://predict-avf.com.

CONCLUSIONS

The PREDICT-AVF web application can guide patient counseling and guideline-concordant shared decision-making as part of a patient-centered end-stage kidney disease life plan.

Evaluating national guideline concordance of recurrent interventions after radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation

OBJECTIVE

Radiocephalic arteriovenous fistulas have been historically perceived as requiring multiple follow-up procedural interventions to achieve maturation and maintain patency. Recent clinical practice guidelines from the National Kidney Foundation's Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) emphasize a patient-centered hemodialysis access strategy with new maximum targets for intervention rates, potentially conflicting with concomitant recommendations to prioritize autogenous forearm hemodialysis access creation. The present descriptive study seeks to assess whether radiocephalic fistulas can meet the KDOQI guideline benchmarks for interventions following access creation, and to elucidate clinical and anatomic characteristics associated with the timing and frequency of interventions following radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation.

METHODS

Prospective patient-level data from the multicenter PATENCY-1 and PATENCY-2 randomized trials, which enrolled patients undergoing new radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation, was analyzed (ClinicalTrials.govNCT02110901 and NCT02414841). The primary outcome was the rate of interventions at 1 year postoperatively. Incidence rates were calculated, and time to surgical or endovascular intervention following fistula creation was modeled using recurrent event extensions of the Cox proportional hazards model. Confidence intervals at the 95% level were calculated using nonparametric bootstrapping.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 914 patients; mean age was 57 years (standard deviation, 13 years), and 22% were female. Median follow-up was 707 days (interquartile range, 447-1066 days). The incidence of interventions per person-year was 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95-1.13) overall; 1.10 (95% CI, 0.98-1.21) before fistula use, and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.82-1.11) after fistula use. The most common interventions overall were balloon angioplasty (54.9% of all interventions), venous side-branch ligation (16.4%), and open revisions (eg, proximalization from snuffbox to wrist, 16.4%). The locations requiring balloon angioplasty included the juxta-anastomotic segment (51.7% of angioplasties), the outflow vein (29.2%), the inflow artery (14.8%), the central veins (3.8%), and the cephalic arch (0.5%). Common indications were to restore or maintain patency (75.6% of all interventions), assist maturation (14.9%), improve depth (4.4%), or improve augmentation (3.0%). In the multivariable regression analysis, female sex (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.05-1.45), diabetes (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01-1.46), and intraoperative vein diameter <3.0 mm (vs ≥4.0 mm: HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.02-1.66) were associated with earlier and more frequent interventions. Patients not on hemodialysis at the time of fistula creation underwent less frequent interventions (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.59-0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with radiocephalic arteriovenous fistulas can expect to undergo one intervention, on average, in the first year after creation, which aligns with current KDOQI guidelines. Patients already requiring hemodialysis, female patients, patients with diabetes, and patients with intraoperative vein diameters <3.0 mm were at increased risk for repeated intervention. No subgroup exceeded guideline-suggested maximum thresholds for recurrent interventions. Overall, the results demonstrate that creation of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula remains a guideline-concordant strategy when part of an end-stage kidney disease life-plan in appropriately selected patients.

Staged autogenous to prosthetic hemodialysis access creation strategy to maximize forearm options

OBJECTIVE

When an adequate cephalic vein is not available for fistula construction, surgeons often turn to basilic vein or prosthetic constructions. Single-stage forearm prosthetic hemodialysis accesses are associated with poor durability, and upper arm non-autogenous access options are often limited by axillary outflow failure, which inevitably drives transition to the contralateral arm or lower extremity. We hypothesized that initial creation of a modest flow proximal forearm arterial-venous anastomosis to dilate ("develop") inflow and outflow vessels, followed by a planned second-stage procedure to create a cannulation zone with a prosthetic graft in the forearm, would result in reliable and durable hemodialysis access in patients with limited options.

METHODS

We performed an institutional cohort study from 2017 to 2021 using a prospectively maintained database supplemented with adjudicated chart review. Patients without traditional autogenous hemodialysis access options in the forearm underwent an initial non-wrist arterial-venous anastomosis creation in the forearm as a first stage, followed by a second-stage interposition graft sewn to the existing inflow and venous outflow segments to create a useable cannulation zone in the forearm while leveraging vascular development. Outcomes included time from second-stage access creation to loss of primary and secondary patency, frequency of subsequent interventions, and perioperative complications.

RESULTS

The cohort included 23 patients; first-stage radial artery-based (74%) configurations were more common than brachial artery-based (26%). Mean age was 63 years (standard deviation, 14 years), and 65% were female. Median follow-up was 340 days (interquartile range [IQR], 169-701 days). Median time to cannulation from second-stage procedure was 28 days (IQR, 18-53 days). Primary, primary assisted, and secondary patency at 1 year was 16.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.3%-45.8%), 34.6% (95% CI, 15.2%-66.2%), and 95.7% (95% CI, 81.3%-99.7%), respectively. Subsequent interventions occurred at a rate of 3.02 (IQR, 1.0-4.97) per person-year, with endovascular thrombectomy with or without angioplasty/stenting (70.9%) being the most common. There were no cases of steal syndrome. Infection occurred in two cases and were managed with antibiotics alone.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients without adequate distal autogenous access options, staged prosthetic graft placement in the forearm offers few short-term complications and excellent durability with active surveillance while strategically preserving the upper arm for future constructions.

Predicting radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula success with machine learning

After creation of a new arteriovenous fistula (AVF), assessment of readiness for use is an important clinical task. Accurate prediction of successful use is challenging, and augmentation of the physical exam with ultrasound has become routine. Herein, we propose a point-of-care tool based on machine learning to enhance prediction of successful unassisted radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula (AVF) use. Our analysis includes pooled patient-level data from 704 patients undergoing new radiocephalic AVF creation, eligible for hemodialysis, and enrolled in the 2014-2019 international multicenter PATENCY-1 or PATENCY-2 randomized controlled trials. The primary outcome being predicted is successful unassisted AVF use within 1-year, defined as 2-needle cannulation for hemodialysis for ≥90 days without preceding intervention. Logistic, penalized logistic (lasso and elastic net), decision tree, random forest, and boosted tree classification models were built with a training, tuning, and testing paradigm using a combination of baseline clinical characteristics and 4-6 week ultrasound parameters. Performance assessment includes receiver operating characteristic curves, precision-recall curves, calibration plots, and decision curves. All modeling approaches except the decision tree have similar discrimination performance and comparable net-benefit (area under the ROC curve 0.78-0.81, accuracy 69.1-73.6%). Model performance is superior to Kidney Disease Outcome Quality Initiative and University of Alabama at Birmingham ultrasound threshold criteria. The lasso model is presented as the final model due to its parsimony, retaining only 3 covariates: larger outflow vein diameter, higher flow volume, and absence of >50% luminal stenosis. A point-of-care online calculator is deployed to facilitate AVF assessment in the clinic.