Early predictors of mortality after spine trauma: a level 1 Australian trauma center study

Serum glucose/potassium ratio as a clinical risk factor for predicting the severity and prognosis of acute traumatic spinal cord injury

OBJECTIVE

Acute traumatic Spinal cord injury (TSCI) is a devastating event that causes severe sensory and motor impairments as well as autonomic dysfunction in patients, yet relevant clinical biomarkers have not been established. This study aimed to determine the significance of the serum glucose/potassium ratio (GPR) in evaluating TSCI severity and predicting prognosis.

METHODS

An analysis of 520 clinical records of acute TSCI patients from January 2012 to June 2022 was conducted. The relationships between serum GPR and The American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS) grade 6-month post-trauma prognosis and the admission AIS grade were analyzed. To evaluate the discriminatory ability, a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used. All methods were performed in accordance with the relevant guidelines and regulations.

RESULTS

Based on the initial assessment of AIS grade, 256 (49.2%) patients were categorized into the severe TSCI group (AIS A-B), and there was a significant correlation between the severe TSCI group and serum GPR (p < 0.001). Serum GPR was reduced in an AIS grade-dependent manner (R = - 0.540, p < 0.001). Of the 520 patients, 262 (50.4%) patients were classified as having a poor prognosis according to the AIS grade at discharge. Serum GPR was also reduced in an AIS grade at discharge-dependent manner (R = - 0.599, p < 0.001), and was significantly higher in the poor prognosis group compared to the good prognosis group (p < 0.001). Poor prognosis was significantly associated with sex (p = 0.009), severity of TSCI (p < 0.001), location of TSCI (p < 0.001), surgical decompression (p < 0.018), body temperature (p < 0.001), heart rate (p < 0.001), systolic arterial pressure (SAP) (p < 0.001), diastolic arterial pressure (DAP) (p < 0.001), serum GPR (p < 0.001), serum glucose (p < 0.001), serum potassium (p < 0.001), and white blood cell count (p = 0.003). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed a significant correlation between poor prognosis and serum GPR (p = 0.023). The ROC analysis showed the area under the curve of serum GPR to be a poor predictor of prognosis in TSCI patients at 0.842 (95% confidence interval, 0.808-0.875).

CONCLUSION

There was a significant relationship between serum GPR and admission injury severity and the 6-month prognosis of acute TSCI patients. Serum GPR serves as a readily available clinical risk factor for predicting the severity and 6-month prognosis of acute traumatic spinal cord injury, which holds potential clinical significance for patients with TSCI.

Spinal injury in major trauma: Epidemiology of 1104 cases from an Italian first level trauma center

INTRODUCTION

Traumatic spinal injuries are frequent and their management is debated, especially in major trauma patients. This study aims to describe a large population of major trauma patients with vertebral fractures to improve prevention measures and fracture management.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 6274 trauma patients prospectively collected between October 2010 and October 2020. Collected data include demographics, mechanism of trauma, type of imaging, fracture morphology, associated injuries, injury severity score (ISS), survival, and death timing. The statistical analysis focused on mechanism of trauma and the search of predictive factors for critical fractures.

RESULTS

Patients showed a mean age of 47 years and 72.5% were males. Trauma included 59.9% of road accidents and 35.1% of falls. 30.7% patients had at least a severe fracture, while 17.2% had fractures in multiple spinal regions. 13.7% fractures were complicated by spinal cord injury (SCI). The mean ISS of the total population was 26.4 (SD 16.3), with 70.7% patients having an ISS≥16. There is a higher rate of severe fractures in fall cases (40.1%) compared to RA (21.9% to 26.3%). The probability of a severe fracture increased by 164% in the case of fall and by 77% in presence of AIS≥3 associated injury of head/neck while reduced by 34% in presence of extremities associated injuries. Multiple level injuries increased with ISS rise and in the case of extremities associated injuries. The probability of a severe upper cervical fracture increased by 5.95 times in the presence of facial associated injuries. The mean length of stay was 24.7 days and 9.6% of patients died.

CONCLUSIONS

In Italy, road accidents are still the most frequent trauma mechanism and cause more cervico-thoracic fractures, while falls cause more lumbar fractures. Spinal cord injuries represent an indicator of more severe trauma. In motorcyclists or fallers/jumpers, there is a higher risk of severe fractures. When a spinal injury is diagnosed, the probability of a second vertebral fracture is consistent. These data could help the decisional workflow in the management of major trauma patients with vertebral injury.

Risk factors for thirty-day morbidity and mortality after spinal trauma

BACKGROUND

Traumatic Spinal Injuries (TSI) often follow high velocity injuries and frequently accompanied by polytrauma. While most studies have focussed on outcomes of spinal cord injuries, the incidence and risk factors that predict morbidity and mortality after TSI has not been well-defined.

METHODS

Data of consecutive patients of TSI (n = 2065) treated over a 5-year-period were evaluated for demographics, injury mechanisms, neurological status, associated injuries, timing of surgery and co-morbidities. The thirty-day incidence and risk factors for complications, length of stay and mortality were analysed.

RESULTS

The incidence of spinal trauma was 6.2%. Associated injuries were seen in 49.7% (n = 1028), and 33.5% (n = 692) patients had comorbidities. The 30-day mortality was 0.73% (n = 15). Associated chest injuries (p = 0.0001), cervical spine injury (p = 0.0001), ASIA-A neurology (p < 0.01) and ankylosing spondylitis (p = 0.01) correlated with higher mortality. Peri-operative morbidity was noted in 571 patients (27.7%) and were significantly associated with age > 60 (p = 0.043), ASIA-A neurology (p < 0.05), chest injuries (p = 0.042), cervical and thoracic spine injury (p < 0.0001). The mean length of stay in hospital was 8.87 days. Cervical spine injury (p < 0.0001), delay in surgery > 48 h (p = 0.011), Diabetes mellitus (p = 0.01), Ankylosing spondylitis (p = 0.009), associated injuries of chest, head, pelvis and face (p < 0.05) were independent risk factors for longer hospital stay.

CONCLUSION

Key predictors of mortality after spinal trauma were cervical spine injury, complete neurological deficit, chest injuries and ankylosing spondylitis, while additionally higher age and thoracic injuries contributed to higher morbidity and prolonged hospitalisation. Notably multi-level injuries, higher age, co-morbidities and timing of surgery did not influence the mortality.

Association of Mortality and Charlson Comorbidity Index in Surgical Spinal Trauma Patients at a Level I Academic Center

OBJECTIVES

The Charlson Comorbidity Index score (CCI) records the presence of comorbidities with various weights for a total score to estimate mortality within 1 year of hospital admission. Our study sought to assess the association of CCI with mortality rates of patients undergoing surgical intervention.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective study.

METHODS

Retrospective study of patients with surgical spinal trauma at a large academic level I trauma tertiary center from 2015 to 2018. Information collected included age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, body mass index, Charlson comorbidities, injury severity score, the presence of spinal cord injury, and mortality. Mortality was measured at 30 days, 90 days, and 1 year. Descriptive and bivariate analyses were completed. The results were significant at P < 0.05.

RESULTS

The highest proportion of 1-year mortality was in the patients with cervical (11.3%) and thoracolumbar injuries (7.4%) (P = 0.002). Patients with low CCI had low 1-year mortality (1.7%). Patients with high CCI had high 1-year mortality (13.8%) (P < 0.001). A significant association existed between CCI and mortality at 30 days, 90 days, and 1 year (P < 0.001). Mortality was higher in patients with spinal cord injury (14/108; 13%) than in those without (11/232; 5%) (P = 0.021). No association existed between ISS and mortality (P = 0.26).

DISCUSSION

The CCI was associated with a higher proportion of deaths at 30 days, 90 days, and 1 year. This association may help predict this unfortunate complication and guide the surgical team in formulating treatment plans and counseling patients and families regarding mortality associated with these injuries and the risks of surgical intervention.

Acute traumatic quadriplegia: Predictors of in-hospital and six-month mortality

Background

Traumatic spinal cord injury is one of the most disastrous and devastating health burdens all over the world with a high mortality rate. The present study aimed to evaluate the predictors of in-hospital and six-month mortality in these patients.

Methods

The electronic medical records of 87 consecutive patients with acute complete traumatic quadriplegia were reviewed to extract clinical, radiological, and laboratory data. Simple and multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate crude and adjusted odds with 95% confidence interval (CI) ratios for the predictors of in-hospital mortality and six-month mortality.

Results

There were 48 males and the mean age was 38.67 ± 12.81; in-hospital and six-month mortality were 21.84% and 11.76%, respectively. Traffic road accidents (67.8%) and falls (12.6%) were the most common causes of injury. The univariate analysis demonstrated advanced age, level of injury, late surgery or no surgical intervention, the lack of methylprednisolone therapy, a higher Charlson comorbidity index, the Injury Severity Score, and the presence of respiratory failure or bradycardia on admission were predictors of in-hospital mortality ( p < 0.05). In the final multiple logistic regression model, the level of injury (OR = 0.02 (0.001,0.35), p = 0.008) and the presence of respiratory failure (OR = 2.37 (0.03,13.88), p = 0.024) were the only predictors of in-hospital mortality. The univariate model showed that the level of injury, respiratory failure on admission, and the Injury Severity Score were the predictors of six-month mortality; however, the level of injury was the only predictor of the six-month mortality (OR = 1.12 (0.99, 1.27), p = 0.028) according to the multiple logistic regression model.

Conclusions

Several factors could affect in-hospital and six-month mortality in patients with traumatic spinal cord injury. Our findings demonstrated the level of injury and respiratory failure on admission as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in these patients. Furthermore, the level of injury was the only independent predictor of six-month mortality in the present study.

1-Year Mortality and Surgery Incidence in Older US Adults with Cervical Spine Fracture

BACKGROUND

Traumatic cervical spinal cord injuries (SCIs) can be lethal and are especially dangerous for older adults. Falls from standing and risk factors for a cervical fracture and spinal cord injury increase with age. This study estimates the 1-year mortality for patients with a cervical fracture and resultant SCI and compares the mortality rate with that from an isolated cervical fracture.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of U.S. Medicare patients older than 65 years of age. International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 codes were used to identify patients with a cervical fracture without SCI and patients with a cervical fracture with SCI between 2007 and 2014. Our primary outcome was 1-year mortality cumulative incidence rate; our secondary outcome was the cumulative incidence rate of surgical intervention. Propensity weighted analysis was performed to balance covariates between the groups.

RESULTS

The SCI cohort had a 1-year mortality of 36.5%, compared with 31.1% in patients with an isolated cervical fracture (risk difference 5.4% (2.9%-7.9%)). Patients with an SCI were also more likely to undergo surgical intervention compared with those without a SCI (23.1% and 10.3%, respectively; risk difference 12.8% (10.8%-14.9%)).

CONCLUSIONS

Using well-adjusted population-level data in older adults, this study estimates the 1-year mortality after SCI in older adults to be 36.5%. The mortality after a cervical fracture with SCI was 5 percentage points higher than in patients without SCI, and this difference is smaller than one might expect, likely representing the frailty of this population and unmeasured covariates.

Lack of Prognostic Model Validation in Low Back Pain Prediction Studies: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to investigate the frequency with which prediction studies for low back pain outcomes utilize prospective methods of prognostic model validation.

METHOD

Searches of Medline and Embase for terms "predict/predictor," "prognosis," or "prognostic factor." The search was limited to studies conducted in humans and reported in the English language. Included articles were all those published in 2 Spine specialty journals (Spine and The Spine Journal) over a 13-month period, January 2013 to January 2014. Conference papers, reviews, and letters were excluded. The initial screen identified 55 potential studies (44 in Spine, 11 in The Spine Journal); 34 were excluded because they were not primary data collection prediction studies; 23 were not prediction studies and 11 were review articles. This left 21 prognosis papers for review, 19 in Spine, 2 in The Spine Journal.

RESULTS

None of the 21 studies provided validation for the predictors that they documented (neither internal or external validation). On the basis of the study designs and lack of validation, only 2 studies used the correct terminology for describing associations/relationships between independent and dependent variables.

DISCUSSION

Unless researchers and clinicians consider sophisticated and rigorous methods of statistical/external validity for prediction/prognostic findings they will make incorrect assumptions and draw invalid conclusions regarding treatment effects and outcomes. Without proper validation methods, studies that claim to present prediction models actually describe only traits or characteristics of the studied sample.

Epidemiological State, Predictors of Early Mortality, and Predictive Models for Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: A Multicenter Nationwide Cohort Study

STUDY DESIGN

Multi-center, retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the epidemiology, identify predictors of early mortality, and develop predictive models for traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI).

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Despite improved initial care and management strategies, traumatic SCI remains a devastating event. Knowledge of the epidemiological state and predictive factors for mortality is important for developing strategies and counseling; however, they have not been adequately investigated, and predictive modeling regarding outcomes remains an underused modality for patients with traumatic SCI.

METHODS

Using a nationwide trauma registry-the Japan Trauma Data Bank-we identified adult (≥18 yrs) patients with SCI between 2004 and 2015. The endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Characteristics of each patient were described. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors significantly associated with in-hospital mortality and develop a predictive model.

RESULTS

In total, 236,698 patients were registered in the database. Of the 215,835 adult patients, 8069 (3.7%) had SCI. The majority had SCI at the cervical level with falls at ground level being the primary etiology. Over the study period, median age, the proportion of cervical SCI, and the etiology of falls at ground level increased. The mortality rate was 5.6%. The following eight factors, age, sex, Glasgow Coma Scale on arrival (GCS), hypotension on arrival, bradycardia on arrival, severe head injury, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and neurological severity of SCI, were independently associated with mortality. A predictive model consisting of these variables predicted mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86-0.90).

CONCLUSION

Over the 12-year period, patient characteristics, etiology, and post-SCI outcomes significantly changed. We identified eight prognostic factors of early mortality. A predictive model including these factors showed excellent performance and may improve treatment strategies, healthcare resource allocation, and counseling.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3.

Early predictors of health-related quality of life outcomes in polytrauma patients with spine injuries: a level 1 trauma center study

Study Design Retrospective review on clinical-quality trauma registry prospective data. Objective To identify early predictors of suboptimal health status in polytrauma patients with spine injuries. Methods A retrospective review on a prospective cohort was performed on spine-injured polytrauma patients with successful discharge from May 2009 to January 2011. The Short Form 12-Questionnaire Health Survey (SF-12) was used in the health status assessment of these patients. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were applied to investigate the effects of the Injury Severity Score, age, blood sugar level, vital signs, brain trauma severity, comorbidities, coagulation profile, spine trauma-related neurologic status, and spine injury characteristics of the patients. Results The SF-12 had a 52.3% completion rate from 915 patients. The patients who completed the SF-12 were younger, and there were fewer patients with severe spinal cord injuries (American Spinal Injury Association classifications A, B, and C). Other comparison parameters were satisfactorily matched. Multivariate logistic regression revealed five early predictive factors with statistical significance (p ≤ 0.05). They were (1) tachycardia (odds ratio [OR] = 1.88; confidence interval [CI] = 1.11 to 3.19), (2) hyperglycemia (OR = 2.65; CI = 1.51 to 4.65), (3) multiple chronic comorbidities (OR = 2.98; CI = 1.68 to 5.26), and (4) thoracic spine injuries (OR = 1.54; CI = 1.01 to 2.37). There were no independent early predictive factors identified for suboptimal mental health-related qualify of life outcomes. Conclusion Early independent risk factors predictive of suboptimal physical health status identified in a level 1 trauma center in polytrauma patients with spine injuries were tachycardia, hyperglycemia, multiple chronic medical comorbidities, and thoracic spine injuries. Early spine trauma risk factors were shown not to predict suboptimal mental health status outcomes.

Epidemiological trends of spine trauma: an Australian level 1 trauma centre study

Knowledge of current epidemiology and spine trauma trends assists in public resource allocation, fine-tuning of primary prevention methods, and benchmarking purposes. Data on all patients with traumatic spine injuries admitted to the Alfred Hospital, Melbourne between May 1, 2009, and January 1, 2011, were collected from the Alfred Trauma Registry, Alfred Health medical database, and Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. Epidemiological trends were analyzed as a general cohort, with comparison cohorts of nonsurvivors versus survivors and elderly versus nonelderly. Linear regression analysis was utilized to demonstrate trends with statistical significance. There were 965 patients with traumatic spine injuries with 2,333 spine trauma levels. The general cohort showed a trimodal age distribution, male-to-female ratio of 2:2, motor vehicle accidents as the primary spine trauma mechanism, 47.7% patients with severe polytrauma as graded using the Injury Severity Score (ISS), 17.3% with traumatic brain injury (TBI), the majority of patients with one spine injury level, 7% neurological deficit rate, 12.8% spine trauma operative rate, and 5.2% mortality rate. Variables with statistical significance trending toward mortality were the elderly, motor vehicle occupants, severe ISS, TBI, C1-2 dissociations, and American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) A, B, and C neurological grades. Variables with statistical significance trending toward the elderly were females; low falls; one spine injury level; type 2 odontoid fractures; subaxial cervical spine distraction injuries; ASIA A, B, and C neurological grades; and patients without neurological deficits. Of the general cohort, 50.3% of spine trauma survivors were discharged home, and 48.1% were discharged to rehabilitation facilities. This study provides baseline spine trauma epidemiological data. The trimodal age distribution of patients with traumatic spine injuries calls for further studies and intervention targeted toward the 46- to 55-year age group as this group represents the main providers of financial and social security. The study's unique feature of delineating variables with statistical significance trending toward both mortality and the elderly also provides useful data to guide future research studies, benchmarking, public health policy, and efficient resource allocation for the management of spine trauma.

Early predictors of functional disability after spine trauma: a level 1 trauma center study

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective review on prospective cohort and explicit chart review.

OBJECTIVE

To identify early spine trauma predictors of functional disability and to assess management compliance to established spine trauma treatment algorithms.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Identification of early (within 48 hours) spine trauma predictors of functional disability is novel and may assist in the management of patients with trauma. Also, with significant global variation, spine trauma treatment algorithms are essential.

METHODS

Analysis was performed on patients with spine trauma from May 1, 2009, to January 1, 2011. Functional outcomes were determined using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) at 1 year. Univariate and multivariate regressions were applied to investigate the effects of the injury severity score, age, blood sugar level, vital signs, traumatic brain injury, comorbidities, coagulation profile, neurology, and spine injury characteristics. A compliance study was performed using the SLIC and TLICS spine trauma algorithms.

RESULTS

The completion rate for the GOS was 58.8%. The completed GOS cohort was 4.2 years younger in terms of mean age, had more number of patients with severe polytrauma, but less number of patients with severe spinal cord injuries (ASIA [American Spinal Injury Association] A, B, and C) in comparison with the uncompleted GOS cohort. Multivariate logistic regression revealed 3 independent early spine trauma predictors of functional disability with statistical significance (P < 0.05). They were (1) hypotension (OR [odds ratio] = 1.98; CI [confidence interval] = 1.13-3.49), (2) hyperglycemia (OR = 1.67; CI = 1.09-2.56), and (3) moderate/severe traumatic brain injury (OR = 5.88; CI = 1.71-20.16). There were 305 patients with subaxial cervical spine injuries and 653 patients with thoracolumbar spine injuries. The subaxial cervical spine injury classification and thoracolumbar injury classification and severity score compliance studies returned agreements of 96.1% and 98.9%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Early independent spine trauma predictors of functional disability identified in a level 1 trauma center with high compliance to the subaxial cervical spine injury classification and thoracolumbar injury classification and severity score algorithms were hypotension, hyperglycemia, and moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. Spine trauma injury variables alone were shown not to be predictive of functional disability.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3.