Severity Scores in Emergency Department Patients With Presumed Infection: A Prospective Validation Study

Analysis of fecal microbiota and related clinical indicators in ICU patients with sepsis

Background

To analyze the characteristics of fecal microbiota disturbance in the intensive care unit (ICU) patients with sepsis and the correlation with related clinical indicators.

Methods

This study included 31 patients with sepsis admitted to the emergency ICU ward between September 2019 and December 2021. They were divided into Group without septic shock (ND_NS group, 7 cases) and Group with septic shock (ND_S group, 24 cases) according to the presence or absence of septic shock. Furthermore, we divided these 31 sepsis patients into Clinical Improvement group (21 cases) and Death or DAMA group (10 cases) based on clinical outcome, 15 cases of Physical Examiner recruited in the same period were included as control group: ND_HC group (15 cases). The fecal samples of the patients with sepsis within 24 h of admission and random fecal samples of the control group were collected and analyzed by 16S rDNA gene sequencing used for the analysis of fecal microbiota. At the same time, the relevant clinical data of these patients with sepsis were also collected for analysis.

Results

There were 15 cases with drug-resistant bacteria in the ND_S group and only 2 cases in the ND_NS group (P = 0.015). There were significant differences in APACHE II score, length of ICU stay, lactate level, and oxygenation index of patients between the Death or DAMA group and Clinical Improvement group (all P < 0.05). For phylum level, the abundance of Firmicutes, Actinobacteria, and Bacteroidetes decreased in the ND group compared with the ND_HC group, while the abundance of Proteobacteria increased (P < 0.05). For genus level, the relative abundance of Escherichia-Shigella and Klebsiella were significantly increased in the ND group compared with the ND_HC group (P < 0.05). The top six genera in relative abundance in the ND_S group were Escherichia-Shigella, Enterococcus, Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus, Akkermansia, and Klebsiella. Compared with the Clinical Improvement group, the relative abundance of Escherichia-Shigella and Klebsiella in the Death or DAMA group showed an increasing trend with no significant significance, while the relative abundance of Enterococcus and Faecalibacterium decreased in the Death or DAMA group (P < 0.05). Alpha diversity analysis showed that compared with the ND_HC group, the alpha diversity of the fecal microbiota in the ND group decreased. There were significant differences in the Observed_species index, Chao1 index, and ACE index of patients between the ND_HC group and ND group (all P < 0.05). Moreover, compared with the ND_NS group, the Alpha diversity of the ND_S group was more abundant. PCoA analysis showed significant differences in microbial community structure between the ND group and ND_HC group (P = 0.001). There also were significant differences in microbial community structure between the ND_S group and ND_NS group (P = 0.008). LEfSe analysis showed that compared with the ND_HC group, there were significant differences in the species of the ND group, including Enterobacteriaceae, Escherichia-Shigella, Enterococcus, Elizabethkingia, and Family_XIII_AD3011_group.

Conclusions

ICU patients with sepsis suffered intestinal microecological disturbances with significantly decreased abundance of fecal microbiota, diversity, and beneficial symbiotic bacteria. For these patients, the ratio of pathogenic bacteria, including Escherichia-Shigella and Klebsiella increased and became the main bacterial genus in some samples. Moreover, the increasing trend of these two pathogenic bacteria may be correlated with the development of septic shock and the risk of death in patients with sepsis.

Development and Validation of a Rapid and Efficient Prognostic Scoring System for Sepsis Based on Oxygenation Index, Lactate and Glasgow Coma Scale

Objective

To develop a concise scoring system for efficient and rapid assessment of sepsis prognosis applicable to emergency departments.

Methods

This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of patients with sepsis. In this study, a new scoring system (oxygenation index, lactate, and Glasgow coma scale: GOL) was developed through a derivation group, and then the GOL was validated using a validation group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the relationship between GOL and 28-day adverse outcomes. The GOL was compared with the previous scoring system using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and decision analysis curves. The endpoints of this study were mortality, mechanical ventilation (MV), and admission to the intensive care unit (AICU).

Results

608 patients were included in the derivation group and 213 patients in the validation group, with 131 and 42 deaths, respectively. In the validation group, lactate (Lac), oxygenation index (PaO₂/FiO₂), and Glasgow coma scale score (GCS), the three best performers in predicting 28-day mortality from receiver operating characteristic curves, were used to construct the GOL. The higher the GOL score, the higher the incidence of death, MV and AICU within 28 days. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that when the GOL was greater than 1, it was an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality, MV, and AICU. In predicting 28-day mortality, GOL was superior to the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis Score (MEDS), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Score (SIRS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and was comparable to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA).

Conclusion

The GOL is a simple, rapid, and accurate method for early identification of patients at increased risk of in-hospital death from sepsis.

Development and assessment of scoring model for ICU stay and mortality prediction after emergency admissions in ischemic heart disease: a retrospective study of MIMIC-IV databases

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death and emergency department (ED) admission. We aimed to develop more accurate and straightforward scoring models to optimize the triaging of IHD patients in ED. This was a retrospective study based on the MIMIC-IV database. Scoring models were established by AutoScore formwork based on machine learning algorithm. The predictive power was measured by the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic analysis, with the prediction of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, 3d-death, 7d-death, and 30d-death after emergency admission. A total of 8381 IHD patients were included (median patient age, 71 years, 95% CI 62-81; 3035 [36%] female), in which 5867 episodes were randomly assigned to the training set, 838 to validation set, and 1676 to testing set. In total cohort, there were 2551 (30%) patients transferred into ICU; the mortality rates were 1% at 3 days, 3% at 7 days, and 7% at 30 days. In the testing cohort, the areas under the curve of scoring models for shorter and longer term outcomes prediction were 0.7551 (95% CI 0.7297-0.7805) for ICU stay, 0.7856 (95% CI 0.7166-0.8545) for 3d-death, 0.7371 (95% CI 0.6665-0.8077) for 7d-death, and 0.7407 (95% CI 0.6972-0.7842) for 30d-death. This newly accurate and parsimonious scoring models present good discriminative performance for predicting the possibility of transferring to ICU, 3d-death, 7d-death, and 30d-death in IHD patients visiting ED.

Which scoring system is effective in predicting mortality in patients with Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever? A validation study

We aimed to decide which scoring system is the best for the evaluation of the course of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) by comparing scoring systems such as qSOFA (quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment), SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment), APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) and SGS (Severity Grading System) in centers where patients with CCHF were monitored. The study was conducted with patients diagnosed with CCHF in five different centers where the disease was encountered most commonly. Patients having proven PCR and/or IgM positivity for CCHF were included in the study. The scores of the scoring systems on admission, at the 72^nd hour and at the 120^th hour were calculated and evaluated. The data of 388 patients were obtained from five centers and evaluated. SGS, SOFA and APACHE II were the best scoring systems in predicting mortality on admission. All scoring systems were significant in predicting mortality at the 72^nd and 120^th hours. On admission, there was a correlation between the qSOFA, SOFA and APACHE II scores and the SGS scores in the group of survivors. All scoring systems had a positive correlation in the same direction. The correlation coefficients were strong for qSOFA and SOFA, but poor for APACHE II. A one-unit rise in SGS increased the probability of death by 12.818 times. qSOFA did not provide significant results in predicting mortality on admission. SGS, SOFA and APACHE II performed best at admission and at the 72^nd and 120^th hours.

Heart rate n-variability (HRnV) measures for prediction of mortality in sepsis patients presenting at the emergency department

Sepsis is a potentially life-threatening condition that requires prompt recognition and treatment. Recently, heart rate variability (HRV), a measure of the cardiac autonomic regulation derived from short electrocardiogram tracings, has been found to correlate with sepsis mortality. This paper presents using novel heart rate n-variability (HRnV) measures for sepsis mortality risk prediction and comparing against current mortality prediction scores. This study was a retrospective cohort study on patients presenting to the emergency department of a tertiary hospital in Singapore between September 2014 to April 2017. Patients were included if they were above 21 years old and were suspected of having sepsis by their attending physician. The primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality. Stepwise multivariable logistic regression model was built to predict the outcome, and the results based on 10-fold cross-validation were presented using receiver operating curve analysis. The final predictive model comprised 21 variables, including four vital signs, two HRV parameters, and 15 HRnV parameters. The area under the curve of the model was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.70–0.84), outperforming several established clinical scores. The HRnV measures may have the potential to allow for a rapid, objective, and accurate means of patient risk stratification for sepsis severity and mortality. Our exploration of the use of wealthy inherent information obtained from novel HRnV measures could also create a new perspective for data scientists to develop innovative approaches for ECG analysis and risk monitoring.

Development and Assessment of an Interpretable Machine Learning Triage Tool for Estimating Mortality After Emergency Admissions

IMPORTANCE

Triage in the emergency department (ED) is a complex clinical judgment based on the tacit understanding of the patient's likelihood of survival, availability of medical resources, and local practices. Although a scoring tool could be valuable in risk stratification, currently available scores have demonstrated limitations.

OBJECTIVES

To develop an interpretable machine learning tool based on a parsimonious list of variables available at ED triage; provide a simple, early, and accurate estimate of patients' risk of death; and evaluate the tool's predictive accuracy compared with several established clinical scores.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This single-site, retrospective cohort study assessed all ED patients between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2016, who were subsequently admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore. The Score for Emergency Risk Prediction (SERP) tool was derived using a machine learning framework. To estimate mortality outcomes after emergency admissions, SERP was compared with several triage systems, including Patient Acuity Category Scale, Modified Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score, Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage, Rapid Acute Physiology Score, and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score. The initial analyses were completed in October 2020, and additional analyses were conducted in May 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Three SERP scores, namely SERP-2d, SERP-7d, and SERP-30d, were developed using the primary outcomes of interest of 2-, 7-, and 30-day mortality, respectively. Secondary outcomes included 3-day mortality and inpatient mortality. The SERP's predictive power was measured using the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

The study included 224 666 ED episodes in the model training cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.60 [16.90] years; 113 426 [50.5%] female), 56 167 episodes in the validation cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.58 [16.87] years; 28 427 [50.6%] female), and 42 676 episodes in the testing cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 64.85 [16.80] years; 21 556 [50.5%] female). The mortality rates in the training cohort were 0.8% at 2 days, 2.2% at 7 days, and 5.9% at 30 days. In the testing cohort, the areas under the curve of SERP-30d were 0.821 (95% CI, 0.796-0.847) for 2-day mortality, 0.826 (95% CI, 0.811-0.841) for 7-day mortality, and 0.823 (95% CI, 0.814-0.832) for 30-day mortality and outperformed several benchmark scores.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this retrospective cohort study, SERP had better prediction performance than existing triage scores while maintaining easy implementation and ease of ascertainment in the ED. It has the potential to be widely applied and validated in different circumstances and health care settings.

A critical appraisal of the prognostic predictive models for patients with sepsis: Which model can be applied in clinical practice?

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is associated with high mortality and predictive models can help in clinical decision-making. The objective of this study was to carry out a systematic review of these models.

METHODS

In 2019, we conducted a systematic review in MEDLINE and EMBASE (CDR42018111121:PROSPERO) of articles that developed predictive models for mortality in septic patients (inclusion criteria). We followed the CHARMS recommendations (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies), extracting the information from its 11 domains (Source of data, Participants, etc). We determined the risk of bias and applicability (participants, outcome, predictors and analysis) through PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool).

RESULTS

A total of 14 studies were included. In the CHARMS extraction, the models found showed great variability in its 11 domains. Regarding the PROBAST checklist, only one article had an unclear risk of bias as it did not indicate how missing data were handled while the others all had a high risk of bias. This was mainly due to the statistical analysis (inadequate sample size, handling of continuous predictors, missing data and selection of predictors), since 13 studies had a high risk of bias. Applicability was satisfactory in six articles. Most of the models integrate predictors from routine clinical practice. Discrimination and calibration were assessed for almost all the models, with the area under the ROC curve ranging from 0.59 to 0.955 and no lack of calibration. Only three models were externally validated and their maximum discrimination values in the derivation were from 0.712 and 0.84. One of them (Osborn) had undergone multiple validation studies.

DISCUSSION

Despite most of the studies showing a high risk of bias, we very cautiously recommend applying the Osborn model, as this has been externally validated various times.

Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for Critically Ill Patients with Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumonia e (CrKP): A Cohort Study from Developing Country

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence indicates carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CrKP) is increasingly prevalent in intensive care unit (ICU), but its clinical characteristics and risk factors remain unknown.

AIM

The aim of the present study was to evaluate clinical characteristics, risk factors in critically ill patients with CrKP infection.

METHODS

A retrospective study was included in patients from January 2013 to October 2019. Clinical data were collected from CrKP patients on the day of specimen collection admitted to ICU. Multivariable logistic regression was used for risk factors. Receiver operating curve (ROC) and the area under the curve (AUC) with DeLong method of MedCalc software were used. Two-way repeated-measures ANOVA analysis was used to analyze the characteristics of independent risk factors over time.

FINDINGS

A total of 147 adult patients with CrKP were screened, among them, 89 (median age 64.0 years, 66 (74.15%) males) patients with CrKP were finally included, of which 38 patients (42.7%) were non-survival group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that lactic acid (OR3.04 95% CI 1.38-6.68, P = 0.006), APACHE II score (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.33, P < 0.001), tigecycline combined with fosfomycin treatment (OR0.15, 95% CI 0.04-0.65, P = 0.011) are independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients with CRKP infection (P<0.05). Combined lactic acid with APACHE II score could predict 28-day mortality, of which AUC value was 0.916 (95% CI, 0.847-0.985), with sensitivity 0.76 and specificity 0.98. ANOVA analysis showed that APACHE II score and lactic acid between the two groups at three-time points were statistically significant, which interactive with time and showed an upward and downward trend with time (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Therapeutic strategy based on improving lactic acid and APACHE II would contribute to the outcome in patients with CrKP infection. Tigecycline combined with fosfomycin could reduce the 28-day mortality in patients with CrKP infection in developing country.

Comparison the accuracy of early warning scores with qSOFA and SIRS for predicting sepsis in the emergency department

INTRODUCTION

The aims of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of early warnings scores including National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (MEDS), Search Out Severity score (SOS) and compare them with quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) for detecting sepsis among infected patients at the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted at ED of a university hospital. Primary outcome was sepsis defined by sepsis-2 definition. Secondary outcomes were sepsis defined by sepsis-3 definition, hospital admission and in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 652 (83.9%) from 777 infected patients were classified as sepsis by sepsis-2. MEWS and SOS outperformed other scores in predicting sepsis with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (95%CI) 0.845 (0.805-0.885) and 0.839 (0.799-0.879), followed by NEWS 0.800 (0.753-0.846), MEDS 0.608 (0.551-0.665) and qSOFA 0.657 (0.609-0.706) (p < .001 for all). MEWS ≥3 had a sensitivity of 87.7%, specificity of 69.6%, positive and negative likelihood ratio of 2.88 and 0.18 for predicting sepsis by sepsis-2. Whereas, MEDS and NEWS presented the highest AUC for predicting sepsis according to sepsis-3 (AUC 0.738 and 0.722). NEWS ≥7 predicted sepsis by sepsis-3 with 53.3% sensitivity, 80.9% specificity, 2.75 positive likelihood ratio (LR+) and 0.59 negative likelihood ratio. qSOFA had the highest LR+ of 3.69 for predicting hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

The early warning scores, qSOFA and SIRS had limited decision making for predicting sepsis and adverse outcomes among infected patients.

Biomarker-assisted identification of sepsis-related acute liver impairment: a frequent and deadly condition in critically ill patients

Background The prognostic impact of mild/moderate liver impairment among critically ill patients is not known. We aimed to determine whether acute liver impairment, as measured by several biomarkers, (i) is frequent, (ii) influences prognosis and (iii) to determine whether such an effect is specific for infected critically ill patients. Methods A biomarker and clinical cohort study based on a randomized controlled trial. All-cause mortality was the primary endpoint. Biomarkers hyaluronic acid (HA), bilirubin, albumin, alkaline phosphatase and the international normalized ratio (INR) were determined. Multivariable statistics were applied to estimate risk increase according to liver biomarker increase at baseline and the model was adjusted for age, APACHE II, severe sepsis/septic shock vs. milder infection, chronic alcohol abuse Charlson's co-morbidity index, cancer disease, surgical or medical patient, body mass index, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, mechanical ventilation and the other biomarkers. Time-to-event graphs were used. The patients were critically ill patients (n = 1096) from nine mixed medical/surgical intensive care units without known hepatobiliary disease. Results HA levels differed between infected patients (median 210.8 ng/mL [IQR: 93.2-556.6]) vs. the non-infected (median 56.8 ng/mL [IQR: 31.9-116.8], p < 0.001). Serum HA quartiles 2, 3 and 4 were independent predictors of 90-day all-cause mortality for the entire population (infected and non-infected). However, the signal was driven by the infected patients (positive interaction test, no signal in non-infected patients). Among infected patients, HA quartiles corresponded directly to the 90-day risk of dying: 1st quartile: 57/192 = 29.7%, 2nd quartile: 84/194 = 43.3%, 3rd quartile: 90/193 = 46.6%, 4th quartile: 101/192 = 52.3 %, p for trend: <0.0001. This finding was confirmed in adjusted analyses: hazard ratio vs. 1st quartile: 2nd quartile: 1.3 [0.9-1.8], p = 0.14, 3rd quartile: 1.5 [1.1-2.2], p = 0.02, 4th quartile: 1.9 [1.3-2.6], p < 0.0001). High bilirubin was also an independent predictor of mortality. Conclusions Among infected critically ill patients, subtle liver impairment, (elevated HA and bilirubin), was associated with a progressive and highly increased risk of death for the patient; this was robust to adjustment for other predictors of mortality. HA can identify patients at high risk.

Evaluation and Predictors of Fluid Resuscitation in Patients With Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock

OBJECTIVES

Rapid fluid resuscitation has become standard in sepsis care, despite "low-quality" evidence and absence of guidelines for populations "at risk" for volume overload. Our objectives include as follows: 1) identify predictors of reaching a 30 mL/kg crystalloid bolus within 3 hours of sepsis onset (30by3); 2) assess the impact of 30by3 and fluid dosing on clinical outcomes; 3) examine differences in perceived "at-risk" volume-sensitive populations, including end-stage renal disease, heart failure, obesity, advanced age, or with documentation of volume "overload" by bedside examination.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study. All outcome analyses controlled for sex, end-stage renal disease, heart failure, sepsis severity (severe sepsis vs septic shock), obesity, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score, and time to antibiotics.

SETTING

Urban, tertiary care center between January 1, 2014, and May 31, 2017.

PATIENTS

Emergency Department treated adults (age ≥18 yr; n = 1,032) with severe sepsis or septic shock.

INTERVENTIONS

Administration of IV fluids by bolus.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In total, 509 patients received 30by3 (49.3%). Overall mortality was 17.1% (n = 176), with 20.4% mortality in the shock group. Patients who were elderly (odds ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.46-0.83), male (odds ratio, 0.66; CI, 0.49-0.87), obese (odds ratio, 0.18; CI, 0.13-0.25), or with end-stage renal disease (odds ratio, 0.23; CI, 0.13-0.40), heart failure (odds ratio, 0.42; CI, 0.29-0.60), or documented volume "overload" (odds ratio, 0.30; CI, 0.20-0.45) were less likely to achieve 30by3. Failure to meet 30by3 had increased odds of mortality (odds ratio, 1.52; CI, 1.03-2.24), delayed hypotension (odds ratio, 1.42; CI, 1.02-1.99), and increased ICU stay (~2 d) (β = 2.0; CI, 0.5-3.6), without differential effects for "at-risk" groups. Higher fluid volumes administered by 3 hours correlated with decreased mortality, with a plateau effect between 35 and 45 mL/kg (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Failure to reach 30by3 was associated with increased odds of in-hospital mortality, irrespective of comorbidities. Predictors of inadequate resuscitation can be identified, potentially leading to interventions to improve survival. These findings are retrospective and require future validation.

Prognostic utilization of models based on the APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II scores for predicting in-hospital mortality in emergency department

BACKGROUND

This study was designed to evaluate and compare the prognostic value of the APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPSII scores for predicting in-hospital mortality in the ED on a large sample of patients. Earlier studies in the ED setting have either used a small sample or focused on specific diagnoses.

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted to include patients with higher risk of mortality from March 2016 to March 2017 in the ED of Emam Reza Hospital, northeast of Iran. Logistic regression was used to develop three models. Evaluation was performed in terms of the overall performance (Brier Score, BS, and Brier Skill Score, BSS), discrimination (Area Under the Curve, AUC), and calibration (calibration graph).

RESULTS

A total of 2205 patients met the study criteria (53% male and median age of 64, IQR: 50-77). In-hospital mortality amounted to 19%. For APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II the BS was 0.132, 0.125 and 0.133 and the BSS was 0.156, 0.2, and 0.144, respectively. The AUC was 0.755 (0.74 to 0.779) for APACHE II, 0.794 (0.775 to 0.818) for APACHE IV, and 0.751 (0.727 to 0.776) for SAPS II. The APACHE IV showed significantly greater AUC in comparison to the APACHE II and SAPS II. The graphical evaluation revealed good calibration of the APACHE IV model.

CONCLUSION

APACHEIV outperformed APACHEII and SAPSII in terms of discrimination and calibration. More validation is needed for using these models for decision-making about individual patients, although they would perform best at a cohort level.

Comparison of the Predictive Performances of qSOFA, APACHE II, and SGS for Evaluation of the Disease Prognosis of CCHF Patients at the Emergency Department

In this study, we compared the predictive performances of quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II) scores, and the severity grading score (SGS) for evaluation of the disease prognosis of patients with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) at the emergency department. We recorded the qSOFA, SGS, and APACHE II scores at admission and at the 72nd and 120th hour in 97 patients admitted to the emergency department and diagnosed with CCHF. In our study, the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve values of qSOFA, SGS, and APACHE II at admission were found to be 0.640, 0.824, and 0.576, respectively. No statistical significance was found for a qSOFA score ≥ 2 at admission as a predictor of mortality. The use of qSOFA score for diseases with a mortal prognosis such as CCHF is insufficient in predicting the prognosis.

Performance of the MEDS score in predicting mortality among emergency department patients with a suspected infection: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To carry out a meta-analysis to examine the prognostic performance of the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score in predicting mortality among emergency department patients with a suspected infection.

METHODS

Electronic databases-PubMed, Embase, Scopus, EBSCO and the Cochrane Library-were searched for eligible articles from their respective inception through February 2019. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and receiver operator characteristic area under the curve were calculated. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore the prognostic performance of MEDS in selected populations.

RESULTS

We identified 24 studies involving 21 246 participants. The pooled sensitivity of MEDS to predict mortality was 79% (95% CI 72% to 84%); specificity was 74% (95% CI 68% to 80%); positive likelihood ratio 3.07 (95% CI 2.47 to 3.82); negative likelihood ratio 0.29 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.37) and area under the curve 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.86). Significant heterogeneity was seen among included studies. Meta-regression analyses showed that the time at which the MEDS score was measured and the cut-off value used were important sources of heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

The MEDS score has moderate accuracy in predicting mortality among emergency department patients with a suspected infection. A study comparison MEDS and qSOFA in the same population is needed.

External validation of the sepsis severity score

INTRODUCTION

Sepsis is defined as a life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection. Mortality rates are high, exceeding 50% in patients with septic shock. The sepsis severity score (SSS) was developed to determine the severity of sepsis and as a prognostic model. The aim of this study was to externally validate the SSS model.

METHODS

Calibration and discrimination of the SSS were retrospectively evaluated using data from a single-center sepsis registry.

RESULTS

Data from 156 septic patients were recorded; 56% of them had septic shock, 94% of patients required mechanical ventilation. The observed hospital mortality was 60.3%. The mean SSS value was 94.4 (95% CI 90.5-98.3). The SSS presented excellent discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.806 (95% CI 0.734-0.866). The pairwise comparison of APACHE II (AUC = 0.789; 95% CI 0.715-0.851) with SSS and 1st day SOFA (AUC = 0.75; 95% CI 0.673-0.817) with SSS revealed no significant differences in discrimination between the models. The calibration of the SSS was good with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H test 9.59, P > 0.05. Analyses of calibration curve show absence of accurate predictions in lower deciles of lower risk (2nd and 4th).

CONCLUSION

The SSS demonstrated excellent discrimination. The calibration evaluation gave conflicting results; the H-L test result indicated a good calibration, while the visual analysis of the calibration curve suggested the opposite. The SSS requires further evaluation before it can be safely recommended as an outcome prediction model.

The New York Sepsis Severity Score: Development of a Risk-Adjusted Severity Model for Sepsis

OBJECTIVES

In accordance with Rory's Regulations, hospitals across New York State developed and implemented protocols for sepsis recognition and treatment to reduce variations in evidence informed care and preventable mortality. The New York Department of Health sought to develop a risk assessment model for accurate and standardized hospital mortality comparisons of adult septic patients across institutions using case-mix adjustment.

DESIGN

Retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data.

PATIENTS

Data from 43,204 severe sepsis and septic shock patients from 179 hospitals across New York State were evaluated.

SETTINGS

Prospective data were submitted to a database from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS

Maximum likelihood logistic regression was used to estimate model coefficients used in the New York State risk model. The mortality probability was estimated using a logistic regression model. Variables to be included in the model were determined as part of the model-building process. Interactions between variables were included if they made clinical sense and if their p values were less than 0.05. Model development used a random sample of 90% of available patients and was validated using the remaining 10%. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p values were considerably greater than 0.05, suggesting good calibration. Areas under the receiver operator curve in the developmental and validation subsets were 0.770 (95% CI, 0.765-0.775) and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.758-0.787), respectively, indicating good discrimination. Development and validation datasets had similar distributions of estimated mortality probabilities. Mortality increased with rising age, comorbidities, and lactate.

CONCLUSIONS

The New York Sepsis Severity Score accurately estimated the probability of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock patients. It performed well with respect to calibration and discrimination. This sepsis-specific model provides an accurate, comprehensive method for standardized mortality comparison of adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.

Validation of the mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score in a Singaporean cohort

The emergency department (ED) serves as the first point of hospital contact for most septic patients. Early mortality risk stratification using a quick and accurate triage tool would have great value in guiding management. The mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score was developed to risk stratify patients presenting to the ED with suspected sepsis, and its performance in the literature has been promising. We report in this study the first utilization of the MEDS score in a Singaporean cohort.In this retrospective observational cohort study, adult patients presenting to the ED with suspected sepsis and fulfilling systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria were recruited. Primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM) and secondary outcome was 72-hour mortality. MEDS, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were compared for prediction of primary and secondary outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare predictive performance.Of the 249 patients included in the study, 46 patients (18.5%) met 30-day IHM. MEDS score achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-0.93), outperforming the APACHE II score (0.77, 95% CI 0.69-0.85) and SOFA score (0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85). On secondary analysis, MEDS score was superior to both APACHE II and SOFA scores in predicting 72-hour mortality, with AUC of 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.95), 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.89), and 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.87), respectively. In predicting 30-day IHM, MEDS score ≥12, APACHE II score ≥23, and SOFA score ≥5 performed at sensitivities of 76.1%, 67.4%, and 76.1%, and specificities of 83.3%, 73.9%, and 65.0%, respectively.The MEDS score performed well in its ability for mortality risk stratification in a Singaporean ED cohort.

Evaluating the Outcome of Multi-Morbid Patients Cared for by Hospitalists: a Report of Integrated Medical Model in Korea

BACKGROUND

The lack of medical personnel has led to the employment of hospitalists in Korean hospitals to provide high-quality medical care. However, whether hospitalists' care can improve patients' outcomes remains unclear. We aimed to analyze the outcome in patients cared for by hospitalists.

METHODS

A retrospective review was conducted in 1,015 patients diagnosed with pneumonia or urinary tract infection from March 2017 to July 2018. After excluding 306 patients, 709 in the general ward who were admitted via the emergency department were enrolled, including 169 and 540 who were cared for by hospitalists (HGs) and non-hospitalists (NHGs), respectively. We compared the length of hospital stay (LOS), in-hospital mortality, readmission rate, comorbidity, and disease severity between the two groups. Comorbidities were analyzed using Charlson comorbidity index (CCI).

RESULTS

HG LOS (median, interquartile range [IQR], 8 [5-12] days) was lower than NHG LOS (median [IQR], 10 [7-15] days), (P < 0.001). Of the 30 (4.2%) patients who died during their hospital stay, a lower percentage of HG patients (2.4%) than that of NHG patients (4.8%) died, but the difference between the two groups was not significant (P = 0.170). In a subgroup analysis, HG LOS was shorter than NHG LOS (median [IQR], 8 [5-12] vs. 10 [7-16] days, respectively, P < 0.001) with CCI of ≥ 5 points.

CONCLUSION

Hospitalist care can improve the LOS of patients, especially those with multiple comorbidities. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the impact of hospitalist care in Korea.

Validation the performance of New York Sepsis Severity Score compared with Sepsis Severity Score in predicting hospital mortality among sepsis patients

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to compare the performance of the New York Sepsis Severity Score (NYSSS) with the Sepsis Severity Score (SSS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation and Simplified Acute Physiology Scores for predicting mortality in sepsis patients.

METHOD

A retrospective analysis was conducted in the intensive care unit. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Overall 1680 sepsis patients were enrolled. The hospital mortality rate was 44.4%. The NYSSS underestimated actual mortality with standard mortality ratio (SMR) of 1.28 (95%CI 1.19-1.38). However, the SSS slightly overestimated the actual mortality with an SMR of 0.94 (0.88-1.01). The NYSSS had moderate discrimination with an AUC of 0.772 (0.750-0.794), in contrast to the SSS which had good discrimination with an AUC of 0.889 (0.873-0.904). The AUC of the SSS was statistically higher than that of the NYSSS. The AUCs of both the NYSSS and SSS were significantly lower than other standard severity scores. The calibrations for all severity scores were poor. The SSS had better overall performance than the NYSSS (Brier score 0.149 and 0.201, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The SSS had better discrimination and overall performance than the NYSSS. However, both sepsis severity scores were poorly calibrated.

Combining Heart Rate Variability with Disease Severity Score Variables for Mortality Risk Stratification in Septic Patients Presenting at the Emergency Department

The emergency department (ED) serves as the first point of hospital contact for many septic patients, where risk-stratification would be invaluable. We devised a combination model incorporating demographic, clinical, and heart rate variability (HRV) parameters, alongside individual variables of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) scores for mortality risk-stratification. ED patients fulfilling systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria were recruited. National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), quick SOFA (qSOFA), SOFA, APACHE II, and MEDS scores were calculated. For the prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality, combination model performed with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.95), outperforming NEWS (0.70, 95% CI: 0.63–0.77), MEWS (0.61, 95% CI 0.53–0.69), qSOFA (0.70, 95% CI 0.63–0.77), SOFA (0.74, 95% CI: 0.67–0.80), APACHE II (0.76, 95% CI: 0.69–0.82), and MEDS scores (0.86, 95% CI: 0.81–0.90). The combination model had an optimal sensitivity and specificity of 91.4% (95% CI: 81.6–96.5%) and 77.9% (95% CI: 72.6–82.4%), respectively. A combination model incorporating clinical, HRV, and disease severity score variables showed superior predictive ability for the mortality risk-stratification of septic patients presenting at the ED.

Performance Assessment of the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis Score, Modified Early Warning Score, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, and Rapid Acute Physiology Score in Predicting Survival Outcomes of Adult Renal Abscess Patients in the Emergency Department

Background

Renal abscess is a relatively uncommon yet debilitating and potentially fatal disease. There is no clearly defined, objective risk stratification tool available for emergency physicians' and surgeons' use in the emergency department (ED) to quickly determine the appropriate management strategy for these patients, despite early intervention having a beneficial impact on survival outcomes.

Objective

This case control study evaluates the performance of Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis Score (MEDS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS) in predicting risk of mortality in ED adult patients with renal abscess. This will help emergency physicians, surgeons, and intensivists expedite the time-sensitive decision-making process.

Methods

Data from 152 adult patients admitted to the EDs of two training and research hospitals who had undergone a contrast-enhanced computed tomography scan of the abdomen and was diagnosed with renal abscess from January 2011 to December 2015 were analyzed, with the corresponding MEDS, MEWS, REMS, RAPS, and mortality risks calculated. Ability to predict patient mortality was assessed via receiver operating curve analysis and calibration analysis.

Results

MEDS was found to be the best performing physiologic scoring system, with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 87.50%, 88.89%, and 88.82%, respectively. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) value was 0.9440, and negative predictive value was 99.22% with a cutoff of 9 points.

Conclusion

Our study is the largest of its kind in examining ED patients with renal abscess. MEDS has been demonstrated to be superior to MEWS, REMS, and RAPS in predicting mortality for this patient population. We recommend its use for evaluation of disease severity and risk stratification in these patients, to expedite identification of critically ill patients requiring urgent intervention.

Characteristics, treatment and outcomes for all emergency department patients fulfilling criteria for septic shock: a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

Most published data on emergency department (ED) patients with septic shock have been generated from studies examining the effect of early protocolised resuscitation in selected cohorts. Consequently, these data do not generally represent patients falling outside trial inclusion criteria or judged unsuitable for aggressive treatment. Our aim was to determine the characteristics, treatment and outcomes for all ED patients fulfilling the criteria for septic shock.

METHODS

Septic shock patients were identified from a prospective database of consecutive ED patients admitted with infection. Descriptive data were compared with those from previous studies and associations between ED processes of care and mortality were determined.

RESULTS

A total of 399 septic shock patients were identified, with a 30-day mortality of 19.5%. The median ED length of stay was 9.2 h. Rates of vasopressor use (22.6%) and ICU admission (37.3%) were low. Subgroups fulfilling the lactate criteria alone, hypotension criteria alone and both criteria represented distinct shock phenotypes with increasing severity of illness and mortality. Mortality for patients with limitations to treatment determined in the ED was 65.6% and 6.1% for those without limitations. Greater volumes of intravenous fluid and early vasopressor therapy for appropriate patients were associated with survival.

CONCLUSION

Median length of stay over 9 hours may have enhanced identification of patients with limitations to treatment and fluid responders, reducing invasive therapies and ICU admissions. Distinct shock phenotypes were apparent, with implications for revision of septic shock definitions and future trial design. Liberal fluids and early vasopressor use in appropriate patients were associated with survival.

Validation of the Sepsis Severity Score Compared with Updated Severity Scores in Predicting Hospital Mortality in Sepsis Patients

INTRODUCTION

Recently, the Sepsis Severity Score (SSS) was constructed to predict mortality in sepsis patients. The aim of this study was to compare performance of the SSS with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II-IV, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, and SAPS 3 scores in predicting hospital outcome in sepsis patients.

METHODS

A retroprospective analysis was conducted in the medical intensive care unit of a tertiary university hospital.

RESULTS

A total of 913 patients were enrolled; 476 of these patients (52.1%) had septic shock. The median SSS was 80 (range 20-137). The SSS presented good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.892. However, the AUC of the SSS did not differ significantly from that of APACHE II (P = 0.07), SAPS II (P = 0.06), and SAPS 3 (P = 0.11). The APACHE IV score showed the best discrimination with an AUC of 0.948 and the overall performance by a Brier score of 0.096. The AUC of the APACHE IV score was statistically greater than the SSS, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SAPS 3 (P <0.0001 for all) and APACHE III (P = 0.0002). The calibration of all scores was poor with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H test <0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

The SSS provided as good discrimination as the APACHE II, SAPS II, and SAPS 3 scores. However, the APACHE IV score had the best discrimination and overall performance in our sepsis patients. The SSS needs to be adapted and modified with new parameters to improve its performance.

The effectiveness of physiologically based early warning or track and trigger systems after triage in adult patients presenting to emergency departments: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Changes to physiological parameters precede deterioration of ill patients. Early warning and track and trigger systems (TTS) use routine physiological measurements with pre-specified thresholds to identify deteriorating patients and trigger appropriate and timely escalation of care. Patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) are undiagnosed, undifferentiated and of varying acuity, yet the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using early warning systems and TTS in this setting is unclear. We aimed to systematically review the evidence on the use, development/validation, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physiologically based early warning systems and TTS for the detection of deterioration in adult patients presenting to EDs.

METHODS

We searched for any study design in scientific databases and grey literature resources up to March 2016. Two reviewers independently screened results and conducted quality assessment. One reviewer extracted data with independent verification of 50% by a second reviewer. Only information available in English was included. Due to the heterogeneity of reporting across studies, results were synthesised narratively and in evidence tables.

RESULTS

We identified 6397 citations of which 47 studies and 1 clinical trial registration were included. Although early warning systems are increasingly used in EDs, compliance varies. One non-randomised controlled trial found that using an early warning system in the ED may lead to a change in patient management but may not reduce adverse events; however, this is uncertain, considering the very low quality of evidence. Twenty-eight different early warning systems were developed/validated in 36 studies. There is relatively good evidence on the predictive ability of certain early warning systems on mortality and ICU/hospital admission. No health economic data were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Early warning systems seem to predict adverse outcomes in adult patients of varying acuity presenting to the ED but there is a lack of high quality comparative studies to examine the effect of using early warning systems on patient outcomes. Such studies should include health economics assessments.

Review article: Sepsis in the emergency department - Part 1: Definitions and outcomes

Sepsis has recently been redefined as acute organ dysfunction due to infection. The ED plays a critical role in identifying patients with sepsis. This is challenging due to the heterogeneity of the syndrome, and the lack of an objective standard diagnostic test. While overall mortality rates from sepsis appear to be falling, there is an increasing burden of morbidity among survivors. This largely reflects the growing proportion of older patients with comorbid illnesses among those treated for sepsis.

Comparison of the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis Score, Modified Early Warning Score, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score and Rapid Acute Physiology Score for predicting the outcomes of adult splenic abscess patients in the emergency department

Background

Splenic abscess is rare but has mortality rates as high as 14% even with recent improvements in management. Early and appropriate intervention may improve patient outcomes, yet at present there is no identified method that can predict mortality risk rapidly and accurately for emergency physicians, surgeons, and intensivists to decide on the ideal course of action.

Objective

This study aims to evaluate the performance of Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis Score (MEDS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS) for predicting the mortality risk of adult splenic abscess patients. This will expedite decision making in the emergency department (ED) to increase survival rates and help avoid unnecessary splenectomies.

Methods

Data of 114 adult patients admitted to the EDs of 4 research and training hospitals who had undergone an abdominal contrast CT scan and diagnosed with splenic abscess between Jan 2000 and April 2015 were analyzed. The MEDS, MEWS, REMS, and RAPS and their corresponding mortality risks were calculated, with their abilities to predict patient mortality assessed through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and calibration analysis.

Results

MEDS was found to be the best performing scoring system across all indicators, with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 92.86%, 88.00%, and 88.60% respectively; its area under curve for AUROC analysis was 0.92. With a cutoff value of 8, negative predictive value of MEDS was 98.88%.

Conclusion

Our series is the largest multicenter study in adult ED patients with splenic abscess. The results from the present study show that MEDS is superior to MEWS, REMS and RAPS in predicting mortality, thus allowing earlier detection of critically ill adult ED splenic abscess patients. Therefore, we recommend that MEDS be used for predicting severity of illness and risk stratification in these patients.

High Risk Subgroups Sensitive to Air Pollution Levels Following an Emergency Medical Admission

For three cohorts (the elderly, socially deprived, and those with chronic disabling disease), the relationship between the concentrations of particulate matter (PM₁₀), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), or oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) at the time of hospital admission and outcomes (30-day in-hospital mortality) were investigated All emergency admissions (90,423 episodes, recorded in 48,035 patients) between 2002 and 2015 were examined. PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO_x daily levels from the hospital catchment area were correlated with the outcomes for the older admission cohort (>70 years), those of lower socio-economic status (SES), and with more disabling disease. Adjusted for acuity and complexity, the level of each pollutant on the day of admission independently predicted the 30-day mortality: for PM₁₀-OR 1.11 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.15), SO₂-1.20 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.24), and NO_x-1.09 (1.06-1.13). For the older admission cohort (≥70 years), as admission day pollution increased (NO_x quintiles) the 30-day mortality was higher in the elderly (14.2% vs. 11.3%: p < 0.001). Persons with a lower SES were at increased risk. Persons with more disabling disease also had worse outcomes on days with higher admission particulate matter (PM₁₀ quintiles). Levels of pollutants on the day of admission of emergency medical admissions predicted 30-day hospital mortality.

Use of the low-frequency/high-frequency ratio of heart rate variability to predict short-term deterioration in emergency department patients with sepsis

OBJECTIVE

To examine the ability of the low-frequency/high-frequency (LF/HF) ratio of heart rate variability (HRV) analysis to identify patients with sepsis at risk of early deterioration.

METHODS

This is a prospective observational cohort study of patients with sepsis presenting to the Montefiore Medical Center ED from December 2014 through September 2015. On presentation, a single ECG Holter recording was obtained and analysed to obtain the LF/HF ratio of HRV. Initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were computed. Patients were followed for 72 hours to identify those with early deterioration.

RESULTS

466 patients presenting to the ED with sepsis were analysed. Thirty-two (7%) reached at least one endpoint within 72 hours. An LF/HF ratio <1 had a sensitivity and specificity of 34% (95% CI (19% to 53%)) and 82% (95% CI (78% to 85%)), respectively, with positive and negative likelihood ratios of 1.9 (95% CI (1.1 to 3.2)) and 0.8 (95% CI (0.6 to 1.0)). An initial SOFA score ≥3 had a sensitivity and specificity of 38% (95% CI (22% to 56%)) and 92% (95% CI (89% to 95%)), with positive and negative likelihood ratios of 4.9 (95% CI (2.8 to 8.6)) and 0.7 (95% CI (0.5 to 0.9)). The composite measure of HRV+SOFA had improved sensitivity (56%, 95% CI (38% to 73%)) but at the expense of specificity (77%, 95% CI (72% to 80%)), with positive and negative likelihood ratios of 2.4 (95% CI (1.7 to 3.4)) and 0.6 (95% CI (0.4 to 0.9)). Receiver operating characteristic analysis did not identify a superior alternate threshold for the LF/HF ratio. Kaplan-Meier survival functions differed significantly (p=0.02) between low (<1) and high (≥1) LF/HF groups.

CONCLUSIONS

While we found a statistically significant relationship between HRV, SOFA and HRV+SOFA, and early deterioration, none reliably functioned as a clinical predictive tool. More complex multivariable models will likely be required to construct models with clinical utility.

Predictive performance of quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment for mortality and ICU admission in patients with infection at the ED

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this study are to investigate the performance of the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) in predicting mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients with clinically diagnosed infection and to compare its performance with that of Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA).

METHODS

From July to December 2015, we retrospectively analyzed 477 patients clinically diagnosed with infection in the emergency department. We compared the performance of SOFA, MEDS, APACHE II, and qSOFA in predicting ICU admission and 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

All scores were higher in nonsurvivors and ICU patients than in survivors and non-ICU patients (P< .001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of qSOFA was lower than that of MEDS (0.666 vs 0.751; P< .05) and similar to that of SOFA (0.729) and APACHE II (0.732) in predicting 28-day mortality. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of qSOFA, SOFA, MEDS, and APACHE II in predicting ICU admission were 0.636, 0.682, 0.661, and 0.640, respectively. There were no significant differences among the score systems. In patients with qSOFA scores less than 2 and greater than or equal to 2, 28-day mortality rates were 17.4% and 42.9% (P< .001), and ICU admission rates were 16.0% and 33.3% (P< .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Quick SOFA predicted ICU admission with similar performance to that of SOFA, MEDS, and APACHE II. Its prognostic ability was similar to that of SOFA and APACHE II but slightly inferior to that of MEDS.