Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Organ-Specific Recurrences After Curative Resection of Colon Cancer

Prognostic value of a nomogram model for postoperative liver metastasis of colon cancer

BACKGROUND

Colon cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors of the digestive system. Liver metastasis after colon cancer surgery is the primary cause of death in patients with colon cancer.

AIM

To construct a novel nomogram model including various factors to predict liver metastasis after colon cancer surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 242 patients with colon cancer who were admitted and underwent radical resection for colon cancer in Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital from December 2019 to December 2022. Patients were divided into liver metastasis and non-liver metastasis groups. Sex, age, and other general and clinicopathological data (preoperative blood routine and biochemical test indexes) were compared. The risk factors for liver metastasis were analyzed using single-factor and multifactorial logistic regression. A predictive model was then constructed and evaluated for efficacy.

RESULTS

Systemic inflammatory index (SII), C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), red blood cell distribution width (RDW), alanine aminotransferase, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level, and lymphatic metastasis were different between groups (P < 0.05). SII, CAR, and RDW were risk factors for liver metastasis after colon cancer surgery (P < 0.05). The area under the curve was 0.93 for the column-line diagram prediction model constructed based on these risk factors to distinguish whether liver metastasis occurred postoperatively. The actual curve of the column-line diagram predicting the risk of postoperative liver metastasis was close to the ideal curve, with good agreement. The prediction model curves in the decision curve analysis showed higher net benefits for a larger threshold range than those in extreme cases, indicating that the model is safer.

CONCLUSION

Liver metastases after colorectal cancer surgery could be well predicted by a nomogram based on the SII, CAR, and RDW.

Prognostic Value of Preoperative Carcinoembryonic Antigen and Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 Levels for Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Stage II Colorectal Cancer: A Nationwide Multicenter Retrospective Study

Objectives

Adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II colorectal cancer patients with high-risk factors for recurrence can be useful; however, its advantage in prognosis remains to be controversial. Thus, in this study, we aimed to assess whether a combination of preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels can predict the prognosis and advantage of adjuvant chemotherapy.

Methods

Using a Japanese nationwide database, in total, 3,688 patients with curative resected stage II colorectal cancer were registered retrospectively between 2008 and 2012 in 24 referral institutions. Patients were classified into three groups as follows: Group A (both non-high levels of CEA and CA19-9), Group B (either high levels of CEA or CA19-9), and Group C (both high levels of CEA and CA19-9).

Results

Multivariable Cox regression analysis, adjusting the depth of tumor invasion, number of dissected lymph nodes, tumor differentiation, lymphatic and venous invasion, and other covariates, showed that the 5-year disease-free survival and overall survival were shorter in Group C than in Groups A and B. Furthermore, in Group C, the 5-year disease-free survival rate was improved in the surgery-plus-AC group compared to the surgery-alone group.

Conclusions

As with existing high-risk factors for recurrence, the combination assessment of preoperative serum CEA and CA19-9 can predict the prognosis for colorectal cancer. Adjuvant chemotherapy may provide a prolonged disease-free survival advantage in stage II colorectal cancer patients with high levels of both tumor markers.

Real-world survival of colon cancer after radical surgery: A single-institutional retrospective analysis

The survival rate for colon cancer after radical surgery has been the focus of extensive debate. To assess the postoperative survival and prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), we collected clinicopathological information for 2,655 patients. The survival time and potential risk factors for OS were analyzed by using Kaplan–Meier curves, Cox proportional hazards models, best subset regression (BSR), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The 5-year survival rates of stage I–IV colon cancer were 96.6%, 88.7%, 69.9%, and 34.3%, respectively. Adjuvant chemotherapy improved the survival rate (90.4% vs. 82.4%, with versus without adjuvant chemotherapy, respectively) in stage II patients with high-risk factors. Elevated preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) were significantly associated with worse OS compared with patients without these elevations. Less than 12 versus more than 12 harvested lymph nodes (LNs) affected prognosis (84.6% vs. 89.7%, respectively). Regarding the lymph node ratio (LNR), the 5-year OS rate was 89.2%, 71.5%, 55.8%, and 34.5% in patients with LNR values of 0, 0.3, 0.3–0.7, and &gt;0.7, respectively. We constructed a nomogram comprising the independent factors associated with survival to better predict prognosis. On the basis of these findings, we propose that stage II colon cancer patients without high-risk factors and with both elevated preoperative CEA and CA199 should receive adjuvant therapy. Furthermore, the LNR could complement TNM staging in patients with &lt;12 harvested LNs. Our nomogram might be useful as a new prognosis prediction system for colon cancer patients.