Multiple Overimputation to Address Missing Data and Measurement Error: Application to HIV Treatment During Pregnancy and Pregnancy Outcomes

Pregnancy outcomes in women living with HIV and HIV-negative women in South Africa: Cohort analysis based on bias-corrected gestational age

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) use during pregnancy may be associated with adverse outcomes, but findings have been inconsistent, at least in part due to unreliably estimated gestational age.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the association between HIV status, ART initiation timing and adverse birth outcomes, with reliably assessed gestational age at booking, in a public sector primary care facility in Cape Town, South Africa.

METHODS

Pregnant women, HIV-negative or living with HIV (WLHIV), were enrolled at first antenatal care visit and followed through delivery. Ultrasound-assessed gestational age was deemed the gold standard. Based on quantitative bias analysis for outcome misclassification, gestational age by non-ultrasound assessment was corrected using multiple overimputation, which deals with missing data and measurement error simultaneously. Using bias-corrected gestational age, birth outcomes were compared between WLHIV and HIV-negative women, and among WLHIV who initiated ART before versus during pregnancy, further divided into trimesters.

RESULTS

Of 3952 women enrolled, 37% were WLHIV (mostly using tenofovir + emtricitabine + efavirenz). Last menstrual period (LMP)-based gestational age was identified to be biased, and LMP measures were thus corrected using multiple overimputation. Comparing WLHIV and HIV-negative women, adjusted risk ratio (aRR) of overall pregnancy loss was 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.98, 1.61); aRR of preterm delivery was 1.02 (95% CI 0.88, 1.20); aRR of small for gestational age infants was 1.43 (95% CI 1.14, 1.80). Among WLHIV, outcomes were similar by ART initiation timing.

CONCLUSIONS

In this routine care cohort, risk of SGA, and possibly of pregnancy loss, was increased in WLHIV compared with HIV-negative women, with no evidence of increased risk of preterm delivery. Further research is needed to improve mechanistic understanding of the contribution of ART to adverse birth outcomes to optimize treatment for pregnant WLHIV and ensure optimal maternal and infant outcomes.

Scientific Opinion of the PPR Panel on the follow-up of the findings of the External Scientific Report 'Literature review of epidemiological studies linking exposure to pesticides and health effects'

In 2013, EFSA published a comprehensive systematic review of epidemiological studies published from 2006 to 2012 investigating the association between pesticide exposure and many health outcomes. Despite the considerable amount of epidemiological information available, the quality of much of this evidence was rather low and many limitations likely affect the results so firm conclusions cannot be drawn. Studies that do not meet the 'recognised standards' mentioned in the Regulation (EU) No 1107/2009 are thus not suited for risk assessment. In this Scientific Opinion, the EFSA Panel on Plant Protection Products and their residues (PPR Panel) was requested to assess the methodological limitations of pesticide epidemiology studies and found that poor exposure characterisation primarily defined the major limitation. Frequent use of case-control studies as opposed to prospective studies was considered another limitation. Inadequate definition or deficiencies in health outcomes need to be avoided and reporting of findings could be improved in some cases. The PPR Panel proposed recommendations on how to improve the quality and reliability of pesticide epidemiology studies to overcome these limitations and to facilitate an appropriate use for risk assessment. The Panel recommended the conduct of systematic reviews and meta-analysis, where appropriate, of pesticide observational studies as useful methodology to understand the potential hazards of pesticides, exposure scenarios and methods for assessing exposure, exposure-response characterisation and risk characterisation. Finally, the PPR Panel proposed a methodological approach to integrate and weight multiple lines of evidence, including epidemiological data, for pesticide risk assessment. Biological plausibility can contribute to establishing causation.

Dosage of Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine and Risk of Low Birth Weight in a Cohort of Zambian Pregnant Women in a Low Malaria Prevalence Region

In Lusaka, Zambia, where malaria prevalence is low, national guidelines continue to recommend that all pregnant women receive sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) for malaria prophylaxis monthly at every scheduled antenatal care visit after 16 weeks of gestation. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women should receive co-trimoxazole prophylaxis for HIV and not SP, but many still receive SP. We sought to determine whether increased dosage of SP is still associated with a reduced risk of low birth weight (LBW) in an area where malaria transmission is low. Our secondary objective was to determine whether any association between SP and LBW is modified by receipt of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We analyzed data routinely collected from a cohort of HIV-positive pregnant women with singleton births in Lusaka, Zambia, between February 2006 and December 2012. We used a log-Poisson model to estimate the risk of LBW by dosage of SP and to determine whether the association between SP and LBW varied by receipt of ART. Risk of LBW declined as the number of doses increased and appeared lowest among women who received three doses (adjusted risk ratio [ARR] = 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64-0.95). In addition, women receiving combination ART had a higher risk of delivering an LBW infant compared with women receiving no treatment or prophylaxis (ARR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.09-1.28), but this risk was attenuated among women who were receiving SP (risk ratio = 1.09; 95% CI = 0.99-1.21). SP was associated with a reduced risk of LBW in HIV-positive women, including those receiving ART, in a low malaria prevalence region.