Longitudinal Associations of Local Cigarette Prices and Smoking Bans with Smoking Behavior in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Association of cigarette excise taxes and clean indoor air laws with change in smoking behavior in the United States: a Markov modeling analysis

The rates of cigarette smoking in the United States have declined over the past few decades in parallel with increases in cigarette taxes and introduction of more stringent clean indoor air laws. Few longitudinal studies have examined association of taxes and clean indoor air policies with change in smoking nationally. This study examined the association of state and local cigarette taxes and clean indoor laws with change in smoking status of 18,499 adult participants of the longitudinal 2010-2011 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey over a period of 1 year. Every $1 increase in cigarette excise taxes was associated with 36% higher likelihood of stopping smoking among regular smokers. We found no association between clean indoor air laws and smoking cessation nor between taxes and clean indoor air laws with lower risk of smoking initiation. Cigarette taxes appear to be effective anti-smoking policies. Some state and local governments do not take full advantage of this effective policy measure.

Modeling the malleable mental health trajectory - a commentary on Oldehinkel and Ormel (2023)

In their Annual Research Review titled 'Stability of psychopathology: Lessons learned from longitudinal population surveys' (Oldehinkel & Ormel, Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 2022) argue that psychological and psychiatric researchers should not only compare groups but also focus on the within-person variability using repeated measurements in longitudinal studies to advance our understanding of emotional and behavioral problems. I argue adopting such within-person approaches might also change how we think about causality and might lead us to more successful intervention research.

Sales of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) and Cigarette Sales in the USA: A Trend Break Analysis

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) are a potentially lower-risk tobacco product which could help smokers switch completely away from cigarettes. However, the lack of strong evidence to date of a measurable, population-level effect on reducing smoking has generated skepticism about ENDS' potential benefits. This study examines whether increased US ENDS sales have been associated with reduced cigarette sales. Retail data on weekly per-capita cigarette and ENDS purchases in the USA during 2014-2019 were obtained from a national sample of brick-and-mortar retail outlets. Trends in cigarette sales were modeled before (2014-2016) ENDS had a substantial market share, and, after adjusting for macroeconomic factors, projected into the post-period (2017-2019). Actual cigarette sales were lower than projected sales (by up to 16% across the post-period), indicating a substantial "cigarette shortfall" in the post-period. To explore whether general (i.e., inclusive of potentially many mechanisms) substitution by ENDS can explain the cigarette shortfall, its association with per-capita ENDS volume sales was examined. Higher ENDS sales were significantly associated with a greater cigarette shortfall: for every additional per-capita ENDS unit, cigarette sales were 1.4 packs-per-capita lower than expected (B = 1.4, p < .0001). Error correction models which account for spurious correlation yielded similar results. These findings support ENDS serving as a substitute for cigarettes (through potentially many mechanisms including cigarette price), causing cigarette consumption to decline. Since ENDS potentially pose lower risk than cigarettes, this general substitution effect suggests that risk-proportionate tobacco regulation could mitigate the tobacco-related health burden.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10603-022-09533-4.

The Impact of Banning Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems on Combustible Cigarette Sales: Evidence From US State-Level Policies

OBJECTIVES

In the fall of 2019, several states in the United States passed emergency bans on the sale of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), in response to an outbreak of illnesses strongly linked to tetrahydrocannabinol vaping products that received national news coverage. Given that ENDS are potential alternative nicotine products for adult smokers, banning ENDS may have unintended consequences. This study provides evidence of an association between state-level ENDS bans and cigarette sales.

METHODS

We used difference-in-differences and generalized synthetic control methods to estimate the impacts of the emergency ENDS bans on cigarette sales by comparing treatment states that passed ENDS bans in fall 2019 (Massachusetts, Washington, and Rhode Island), halted states that revoked the announced ENDS bans, and control states.

RESULTS

Our results show that cigarette sales in ban states were higher than would have been observed otherwise in the post-ban period. A full ban on ENDS was associated with increased cigarette sales of 7.5% in Massachusetts (P < .01); banning non-tobacco flavored ENDS was associated with 4.6% (P < .1) higher-than-expected cigarette sales. We did not detect statistically significant impacts in halted states, and placebo tests, which randomly assigned control states as treatments, showed no difference in observed cigarette sales in the same period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that banning ENDS is associated with increased cigarette sales. Future research is needed to determine the long-term impact of these policies.

Necessity of Preventing Cardiovascular Disease by Smoke-Free Policies

See Article by https://10.1161/JAHA.118.009829

Prevention and Treatment of Tobacco Use: JACC Health Promotion Series

Tobacco use is the leading preventable cause of death worldwide and is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Both prevention of smoking initiation among youth and smoking cessation among established smokers are key for reducing smoking prevalence and the associated negative health consequences. Proven tobacco cessation treatment includes pharmacotherapy and behavioral support, which are most effective when provided together. First-line medications (varenicline, bupropion, and nicotine replacement) are effective and safe for patients with CVD. Clinicians who care for patients with CVD should give as high a priority to treating tobacco use as to managing other CVD risk factors. Broader tobacco control efforts to raise tobacco taxes, adopt smoke-free laws, conduct mass media campaigns, and restrict tobacco marketing enhance clinicians' actions working with individual smokers.

Long-term smoking cessation rates in elderly versus other adult smokers: A 3-year follow-up study in Taiwan

Introduction

Smoking cessation improves life expectancy at any age. There is some evidence that elderly smokers have at least as good a chance of successfully stopping as other smokers but direct comparisons with long-term follow up are rare. This study aimed to compare success rates up to 3 years in smokers aged 65+ versus other adult smokers with and without adjustment for a range of other smoker characteristics.

Methods

This was a prospective study of 1065 smokers who attended a stop-smoking clinic in Taiwan. Participants (896 < 65 years, 169 65+ years) were followed up by telephone 3, 6, 12 and 36 months after the initial quit date. Prolonged abstinence (abstinent at all follow-ups) and point prevalence abstinence (7 days prior to final follow up) were compared between ‘elderly’ participants aged 65+ years versus ‘non-elderly’ participants aged <65 years with and without adjustment for a range of baseline smoker characteristics (sex, educational level, previous quit attempts, cigarette dependence score). Non-responders were considered to be smoking.

Results

Prolonged 36-month abstinence rates were 20.1% (N = 34) and 15.3% (N = 137) in the elderly and non-elderly participants respectively (p = 0.137). Point prevalence 36-month abstinence rates were 37.3% (N = 63) and 26.5% (N = 237) in the elderly and non-elderly participants respectively (p = 0.005). The odds ratios comparing elderly versus non-elderly abstinence rates after adjustment for baseline variables were 1.17 (95%CI = 0.75–1.83) and 1.52 (95%CI = 1.05–2.20) for prolonged abstinence and point prevalence abstinence respectively.

Conclusions

Elderly smokers attending smoker clinics in Taiwan appear to be at least as likely to achieve long-term abstinence as other adult smokers.

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Prolonged 36-month abstinence rates were higher in the elderly group.

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Point prevalence 36-month abstinence rates were also higher in the elderly group. and non-elderly participants respectively.