Weight Change and the Onset of Cardiovascular Diseases: Emulating Trials Using Electronic Health Records

Age-related differences in the association between financial hardship and weight change during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

To examine the association of financial hardship with weight changes in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

We used data from the COVID-19's Unequal Racial Burden survey, a nationally representative, cross-sectional, online survey of diverse adults living in the US, 12/2020-2/2021. This study included 1000 Asian, Black, Latino (half Spanish-speaking), and White adults and 500 American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, and multiracial adults (5500 total). Age-specific (18-39, 40-59, ≥60) associations between financial hardship domains and weight change were estimated using multinomial logistic regression, adjusted for demographic and health characteristics.

Results

Financial hardship during the COVID-19 pandemic was prevalent across all age groups (18-39: 76.2 %; 40-59: 75.6 %; ≥60: 50.6 %). Among adults aged 18-39 and ≥ 60 years old, food insecurity was significantly associated with weight loss (18-39: aOR = 1.42, 95 % CI = 1.04, 1.95; ≥60: aOR = 3.67, 95 % CI = 1.50, 8.98). Among all age groups, unmet healthcare expenses was also associated with weight loss (18-39: aOR = 1.31, 95 % CI = 1.01, 1.70; 40-59: aOR = 1.49, 95 % CI = 1.06, 2.08; ≥60: aOR = 1.73, 95 % CI = 1.03, 2.91). Among adults aged 18-39 and ≥ 60 years old, lost income was significantly associated with weight gain (18-39: aOR = 1.36, 95 % CI = 1.09-1.69; ≥60: aOR = 1.46, 95 % CI = 1.04, 2.06), and among adults 40-59 years old, experiencing increased debt was significantly associated with weight gain (aOR = 1.50, 95 % CI = 1.13, 1.99).

Conclusions

For those aged 18-39 and ≥ 60 years old experiencing financial hardship during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with both weight loss and weight gain. Less correlation was observed among adults aged 40-59.

Gastrointestinal: Weight gain increases the risk of metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasm observed in post-polypectomy surveillance colonoscopy

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Although obesity is a known risk factor for colorectal neoplasms, the correlation between weight change and colorectal neoplasm is unclear. Thus, we aim to evaluate the association between weight change and advanced colorectal neoplasm (ACRN) recurrence during post-polypectomy surveillance colonoscopy.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 7473 participants diagnosed with colorectal neoplasms between 2003 and 2010 who subsequently underwent surveillance colonoscopies until 2020. We analyzed the association between the risk of metachronous ACRN and weight change, defining stable weight as a weight change of <3% and weight gain as a weight increase of ≥3% from baseline during the follow-up period.

RESULTS

During a median 8.5 years of follow-up, 619 participants (8.3%) developed ACRN. Weight gain was reported as an independent risk factor for metachronous ACRN in a time-dependent Cox analysis. A weight gain of 3-6% and ≥6% had adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) of 1.48 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-1.84) and 2.14 (95% CI: 1.71-2.69), respectively. Participants aged 30-49 and 50-75 years with weight gain of ≥6% showed AHRs of 2.88 (95% CI: 1.96-4.21) and 1.90 (95% CI: 1.43-2.51), respectively. In men and women, weight gain of ≥3% was significantly correlated with metachronous ACRN.

CONCLUSIONS

Weight gain is associated with an increased risk of metachronous ACRN. Furthermore, weight gain is associated with the recurrence of ACRN in both men and women regardless of age.

On the estimation of the effect of weight change on a health outcome using observational data, by utilising the target trial emulation framework

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

When studying the effect of weight change between two time points on a health outcome using observational data, two main problems arise initially (i) 'when is time zero?' and (ii) 'which confounders should we account for?' From the baseline date or the 1st follow-up (when the weight change can be measured)? Different methods have been previously used in the literature that carry different sources of bias and hence produce different results.

METHODS

We utilised the target trial emulation framework and considered weight change as a hypothetical intervention. First, we used a simplified example from a hypothetical randomised trial where no modelling is required. Then we simulated data from an observational study where modelling is needed. We demonstrate the problems of each of these methods and suggest a strategy.

INTERVENTIONS

weight loss/gain vs maintenance.

RESULTS

The recommended method defines time-zero at enrolment, but adjustment for confounders (or exclusion of individuals based on levels of confounders) should be performed both at enrolment and the 1st follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of our suggested method [adjusting for (or excluding based on) confounders measured both at baseline and the 1st follow-up] can help researchers attenuate bias by avoiding some common pitfalls. Other methods that have been widely used in the past to estimate the effect of weight change on a health outcome are more biased. However, two issues remain (i) the exposure is not well-defined as there are different ways of changing weight (however we tried to reduce this problem by excluding individuals who develop a chronic disease); and (ii) immortal time bias, which may be small if the time to first follow up is short.

Association of change in fat and lean mass with incident cardiovascular events for women in midlife and beyond: A prospective study using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA)

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether changes in fat and lean mass over time, quantified using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), are related to incident cardiovascular events. Previous studies using surrogate anthropometric methods have had inconsistent findings.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective, longitudinal observational study of women aged 40 to 80 randomly selected from the electoral roll and stratified into decades: 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-79 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in anthropometric measurements (body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio) and DXA-quantified fat mass and lean mass between the first and fifth years of the study. Incident cardiovascular events recorded from the sixth to the 12th year.

RESULTS

In total 449 participants (87.9 %) were analyzed. A 10 % or greater decrease in total fat mass index was associated with a 67 % lower likelihood of any cardiovascular event (OR = 0.33, 95%CI 0.15-0.71); no association was observed for an increase. A 10 % or greater decrease in abdominal fat mass index was associated with a 62 % lower likelihood of incident stroke (OR = 0.38, 95%CI 0.16-0.91); no association was observed for an increase. A 10 % or greater decrease in appendicular lean mass index resulted in increased odds ratio of 2.91 for incident peripheral artery events (OR = 2.91, 95%CI 1.18-7.20).

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing fat mass for women in midlife and beyond may decrease the risk of cardiovascular events. An increase in fat mass may not contribute to additional cardiovascular events. A reduction in limb muscle mass may provide an independent marker for cardiometabolic risk and peripheral artery disease. No independent association was found using anthropometric measurements and incident cardiovascular events.

The implementation of target trial emulation for causal inference: a scoping review

OBJECTIVES

We aim to investigate the implementation of Target Trial Emulation (TTE) for causal inference, involving research topics, frequently used strategies, and issues indicating the need for future improvements.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We performed a scoping review by following the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) guidance and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist. A health research-focused librarian searched multiple medical databases, and two independent reviewers completed screening and extraction within covidence review management software.

RESULTS

Our search resulted in 1,240 papers, of which 96 papers were eligible for data extraction. Results show a significant increase in the use of TTE in 2018 and 2021. The study topics varied and focused primarily on cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and infectious diseases. However, not all papers specified well all three critical components for generating robust causal evidence: time-zero, random assignment simulation, and comparison strategy. Some common issues were observed from retrieved papers, and key limitations include residual confounding, limited generalizability, and a lack of reporting guidance that need to be improved.

CONCLUSION

Uneven adherence to the TTE framework exists, and future improvements are needed to progress applications using causal inference with observational data.

Dissecting the mediating and moderating effects of depression on the associations between traits and coronary artery disease: A two-step Mendelian randomization and phenome-wide interaction study

Background

Depression is often present concurrently with coronary artery disease (CAD), a disease with which it shares many risk factors. However, the manner in which depression mediates and moderates the association between traits (including biomarkers, anthropometric indicators, lifestyle behaviors, etc.) and CAD is largely unknown.

Methods

In our causal mediation analyses using two-step Mendelian randomization (MR), univariable MR was first used to investigate the causal effects of 108 traits on liability to depression and CAD. The traits with significant causal effects on both depression and CAD, but not causally modulated by depression, were selected for the second-step analyses. Multivariable MR was used to estimate the direct effects (independent of liability to depression) of these traits on CAD, and the indirect effects (mediated via liability to depression) were calculated. To investigate the moderating effect of depression on the association between 364 traits and CAD, a cross-sectional phenome-wide interaction study (PheWIS) was conducted in a study population from UK Biobank (UKBB) (N=275,257). Additionally, if the relationship between traits and CAD was moderated by both phenotypic and genetically predicted depression at a suggestive level of significance (Pinteraction≤0.05) in the PheWIS, the results were further verified by a cohort study using Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

Univariable MR indicated that 10 of 108 traits under investigation were significantly associated with both depression and CAD, which showed a similar direct effect compared to the total effect for most traits. However, the traits "drive faster than speed limit" and "past tobacco smoking" were both exceptions, with the proportions mediated by depression at 24.6% and 7.2%, respectively. In the moderation analyses, suggestive evidence of several traits was found for moderating effects of phenotypic depression or susceptibility to depression, as estimated by polygenic risk score, including chest pain when hurrying, reason of smoking quitting and weight change. Consistent results were observed in survival analyses and Cox regression.

Conclusion

The independent role of traits in CAD pathogenesis regardless of depression was highlighted in our mediation analyses, and the moderating effects of depression observed in our study may be helpful for CAD risk stratification and optimized allocation of scarce medical resources.

Reporting of Observational Studies Explicitly Aiming to Emulate Randomized Trials: A Systematic Review

Importance

Observational (nonexperimental) studies that aim to emulate a randomized trial (ie, the target trial) are increasingly informing medical and policy decision-making, but it is unclear how these studies are reported in the literature. Consistent reporting is essential for quality appraisal, evidence synthesis, and translation of evidence to policy and practice.

Objective

To assess the reporting of observational studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial.

Evidence Review

We searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science for observational studies published between March 2012 and October 2022 that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial of a health or medical intervention. Two reviewers double-screened and -extracted data on study characteristics, key predefined components of the target trial protocol and its emulation (eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, treatment assignment, outcome[s], follow-up, causal contrast[s], and analysis plan), and other items related to the target trial emulation.

Findings

A total of 200 studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial were included. These studies included 26 subfields of medicine, and 168 (84%) were published from January 2020 to October 2022. The aim to emulate a target trial was explicit in 70 study titles (35%). Forty-three studies (22%) reported use of a published reporting guideline (eg, Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology). Eighty-five studies (43%) did not describe all key items of how the target trial was emulated and 113 (57%) did not describe the protocol of the target trial and its emulation.

Conclusion and Relevance

In this systematic review of 200 studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial, reporting of how the target trial was emulated was inconsistent. A reporting guideline for studies explicitly aiming to emulate a target trial may improve the reporting of the target trial protocols and other aspects of these emulation attempts.

Body weight, weight change and the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with hypertension: a primary-care cohort study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) often co-occur. However, the effects of excessive body weight and weight change on CVD in patients with hypertension are not clearly established. We examined the associations of BMI, weight change and the risk of CVD in patients with hypertension.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Our Data were drawn from the medical records of primary-care institutions in China. A total of 24,750 patients with valid weight measurements attending primary healthcare centers were included. Body weight were grouped in BMI categories of underweight ( < 18.5 kg/m2), healthy weight (18.5-22.9 kg/m2), overweight (23.0-24.9 kg/m2) and obesity ( ≥ 25.0 kg/m2). Weight change over 12 months was divided into: gain >4%, gain 1-4%, stable (-1 to 1%), loss 1-4%, and loss ≥4%. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) between BMI, weight change and the risk of CVD.

RESULTS

After multivariable adjustment, patients with obesity were related to higher risks of CVD (HR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.19-1.85). Higher risks were seen in participants with loss ≥4% and gain >4% of body weight compared to stable weight (loss ≥4%: HR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.04-1.70; gain >4%: HR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.04-1.77).

CONCLUSION

Obesity and weight change of loss ≥4% and gain >4% were related to higher risks of CVD. Close monitoring and appropriate interventions aimed at achieving an optimal weight are needed to prevent adverse cardiovascular outcomes for patients with hypertension.

Inflammatory Cytokines, Redox Status, and Cardiovascular Diseases Risk after Weight Loss via Bariatric Surgery and Lifestyle Intervention

Background and Objectives: Obesity is a chronic inflammatory condition and is considered a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The effects of obesity management via sleeve gastrectomy (SG) and lifestyle intervention (LS) on inflammatory cytokines, redox status, and CVD risk were studied in this work. Materials and Methods: A total of 92 participants (18 to 60 years old) with obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2 were divided into two groups: the bariatric surgery (BS) group (n = 30), and the LS group (n = 62). According to the achievement of 7% weight loss after 6 months, the participants were allocated to either the BS group, the weight loss (WL) group, or the weight resistance (WR) group. Assessments were performed for body composition (by bioelectric impedance), inflammatory markers (by ELISA kits), oxidative stress (OS), antioxidants (by spectrophotometry), and CVD risk (by the Framingham risk score (FRS) and lifetime atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk (ASCVD)). Measurements were taken before and after six months of either SG or LS (500 kcal deficit balanced diet, physical activity, and behavioral modification). Results: At the final assessment, only 18 participants in the BS group, 14 participants in the WL group, and 24 participants in the WR group remained. The loss in fat mass (FM) and weight loss were greatest in the BS group (p < 0.0001). Levels of IL-6, TNF-a, MCP-1, CRP, and OS indicators were significantly reduced in the BS and WL groups. The WR group had significant change only in MCP-1 and CRP. Significant reductions in the CVD risk in the WL and BS groups were detected only when using FRS rather than ASCVD. The FM loss correlated inversely with FRS-BMI and ASCVD in the BS group, whereas in the WL group, FM loss correlated only with ASCVD. Conclusions: BS produced superior weight and fat mass loss. However, both BS and LS produced a similar reduction in the inflammatory cytokines, relief of OS indicators, and enhancement of antioxidant capacity, and consequently reduced the CVD risk.

A Systematic Review of Whether the Use of N95 Respirator Masks Decreases the Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease in the General Population

The usage of masks such as the N95 has increased exponentially worldwide. With the ever-increasing global rates of cardiovascular disease, it is vital that preventative measures are adopted to help tackle this crisis. N95 masks have been promoted as health prevention odysseys in the battle against viruses such as COVID-19. A systematic review was conducted on whether the N95 masks could help improve our cardiovascular health. Our data sources included PubMed, Medline and Scopus. Eleven studies met the eligibility criteria to be included in the review. N95 mask usage led to increased reports of dyspnoea, however, no significant effect was seen on blood pressure. N95 masks also showed improvement in aortic parameters. While encouraging results were yielded, further focussed studies on the use of N95 masks and the effect on various cardiovascular parameters would help strengthen the association.

Target Trial Emulation for Transparent and Robust Estimation of Treatment Effects for Health Technology Assessment Using Real-World Data: Opportunities and Challenges

Evidence about the relative effects of new treatments is typically collected in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). In many instances, evidence from RCTs falls short of the needs of health technology assessment (HTA). For example, RCTs may not be able to capture longer-term treatment effects, or include all relevant comparators and outcomes required for HTA purposes. Information routinely collected about patients and the care they receive have been increasingly used to complement RCT evidence on treatment effects. However, such routine (or real-world) data are not collected for research purposes, so investigators have little control over the way patients are selected into the study or allocated to the different treatment groups, introducing biases for example due to selection or confounding. A promising approach to minimise common biases in non-randomised studies that use real-world data (RWD) is to apply design principles from RCTs. This approach, known as 'target trial emulation' (TTE), involves (1) developing the protocol with respect to core study design and analysis components of the hypothetical RCT that would answer the question of interest, and (2) applying this protocol to the RWD so that it mimics the data that would have been gathered for the RCT. By making the 'target trial' explicit, TTE helps avoid common design flaws and methodological pitfalls in the analysis of non-randomised studies, keeping each step transparent and accessible. It provides a coherent framework that embeds existing analytical methods to minimise confounding and helps identify potential limitations of RWD and the extent to which these affect the HTA decision. This paper provides a broad overview of TTE and discusses the opportunities and challenges of using this approach in HTA. We describe the basic principles of trial emulation, outline some areas where TTE using RWD can help complement RCT evidence in HTA, identify potential barriers to its adoption in the HTA setting and highlight some priorities for future work.

Weight Change over 4 Years and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases in China: The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

INTRODUCTION

Previous studies had reported the impact of weight changes in middle age on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the results were inconsistent. In present study, we aimed to investigate the impact of a 4-year weight change on the risk of CVD in middle-aged and elderly Chinese individuals.

METHODS

Using nationally representative data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, 7,530 participants (age: 58.2 ± 8.9 years) were included. Weight change was calculated by subtracting weight at baseline from that at 4-year follow-up. Weight change over 4 years was divided into 5 categories (loss ≥5 kg; loss 2-5 kg; stable (change ≤2 kg); gain 2-5 kg; and gain ≥5 kg).

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, a total of 758 respondents experienced CVD (including 319 stroke and 477 cardiac events). The multivariable ORs of CVD for gain ≥5 kg compared to stable weight (change ≤2 kg) was 1.50 (95% CI, 1.14-1.97) versus 1.41(1.09-1.83) for losing ≥5 kg. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression model with restricted cubic splines showed a U-shaped association between weight change and the risk of CVD (p for nonlinearity <0.001). The significant associations did not change in subgroup and sensitivity analysis. Weight change was also associated with higher risk of stroke and cardiac events.

CONCLUSION

Weight changes (weight gain or loss more than 5 kg) during middle age were associated with an increased risk of CVD in middle-aged and elderly Chinese individuals.

Long-term neurologic outcomes of COVID-19

The neurologic manifestations of acute COVID-19 are well characterized, but a comprehensive evaluation of postacute neurologic sequelae at 1 year has not been undertaken. Here we use the national healthcare databases of the US Department of Veterans Affairs to build a cohort of 154,068 individuals with COVID-19, 5,638,795 contemporary controls and 5,859,621 historical controls; we use inverse probability weighting to balance the cohorts, and estimate risks and burdens of incident neurologic disorders at 12 months following acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our results show that in the postacute phase of COVID-19, there was increased risk of an array of incident neurologic sequelae including ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, cognition and memory disorders, peripheral nervous system disorders, episodic disorders (for example, migraine and seizures), extrapyramidal and movement disorders, mental health disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, sensory disorders, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and encephalitis or encephalopathy. We estimated that the hazard ratio of any neurologic sequela was 1.42 (95% confidence intervals 1.38, 1.47) and burden 70.69 (95% confidence intervals 63.54, 78.01) per 1,000 persons at 12 months. The risks and burdens were elevated even in people who did not require hospitalization during acute COVID-19. Limitations include a cohort comprising mostly White males. Taken together, our results provide evidence of increased risk of long-term neurologic disorders in people who had COVID-19.

Identifying adults at high-risk for change in weight and BMI in England: a longitudinal, large-scale, population-based cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Targeted obesity prevention policies would benefit from the identification of population groups with the highest risk of weight gain. The relative importance of adult age, sex, ethnicity, geographical region, and degree of social deprivation on weight gain is not known. We aimed to identify high-risk groups for changes in weight and BMI using electronic health records (EHR).

METHODS

In this longitudinal, population-based cohort study we used linked EHR data from 400 primary care practices (via the Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in England, accessed via the CALIBER programme. Eligible participants were aged 18-74 years, were registered at a general practice clinic, and had BMI and weight measurements recorded between Jan 1, 1998, and June 30, 2016, during the period when they had eligible linked data with at least 1 year of follow-up time. We calculated longitudinal changes in BMI over 1, 5, and 10 years, and investigated the absolute risk and odds ratios (ORs) of transitioning between BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1 and 2, and severe obesity [class 3]), as defined by WHO. The associations of demographic factors with BMI transitions were estimated by use of logistic regression analysis, adjusting for baseline BMI, family history of cardiovascular disease, use of diuretics, and prevalent chronic conditions.

FINDINGS

We included 2 092 260 eligible individuals with more than 9 million BMI measurements in our study. Young adult age was the strongest risk factor for weight gain at 1, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Compared with the oldest age group (65-74 years), adults in the youngest age group (18-24 years) had the highest OR (4·22 [95% CI 3·86-4·62]) and greatest absolute risk (37% vs 24%) of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity at 10 years. Likewise, adults in the youngest age group with overweight or obesity at baseline were also at highest risk to transition to a higher BMI category; OR 4·60 (4·06-5·22) and absolute risk (42% vs 18%) of transitioning from overweight to class 1 and 2 obesity, and OR 5·87 (5·23-6·59) and absolute risk (22% vs 5%) of transitioning from class 1 and 2 obesity to class 3 obesity. Other demographic factors were consistently less strongly associated with these transitions; for example, the OR of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity in people living in the most socially deprived versus least deprived areas was 1·23 (1·18-1·27), for men versus women was 1·12 (1·08-1·16), and for Black individuals versus White individuals was 1·13 (1·04-1·24). We provide an open access online risk calculator, and present high-resolution obesity risk charts over a 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year follow-up period.

INTERPRETATION

A radical shift in policy is required to focus on individuals at the highest risk of weight gain (ie, young adults aged 18-24 years) for individual-level and population-level prevention of obesity and its long-term consequences for health and health care.

FUNDING

The British Hearth Foundation, Health Data Research UK, the UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research.