The Steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score: validation in the general US population

Diagnostic Accuracy of the LiverRisk Score to Detect Increased Liver Stiffness Among a United States General Population and Subgroups

Background

The LiverRisk score (LRS) has recently been proposed to predict liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. Here, we performed an external validation of this score.

Methods

We used data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, a United States population-based cohort to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the LRS to detect a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥8 and ≥12 kPa. Performance was tested among the entire general population and clinically relevant subgroups.

Results

The cohort comprised 7,025 participants (aged 49 [33-63], 49% male), and 9.7% had an LSM ≥8 and 3.2% had an LSM ≥12 kPa. The area under the receiver characteristic operator curve (AUC) in the overall population was 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] :0.71-0.75) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.74-0.81) to detect an LSM ≥8 and ≥ 12 kPa, respectively, significantly outperforming the fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4) but not the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score, steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE), or metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis 5 (MAF-5). Performance was consistent among most subgroups, but AUC levels to detect an LSM ≥8 kPa decreased to <0.70 among participants aged 18-40 or 60-80 years, blacks, and individuals with diabetes or liver steatosis. The LRS categorized 80.5% as very low risk, 17.7% as low risk, and 1.8% as at risk, prevalence of an LSM ≥8 in these groups was 6.3%, 20.8%, and 50.5%, respectively. The sensitivity to detect an LSM ≥8 kPa was 47.3% in the overall population (but dropped to 21.3% for individuals aged 18-40 years) despite applying the lowest cut-off, which should yield the highest sensitivity.

Conclusion

The LRS score is a promising new tool to predict liver fibrosis; however, its diagnostic accuracy attenuates especially among patients aged 18-40 or 60-80 years. The overall sensitivity was only 47.3% at the lowest LRS cut-off. Further studies assessing cost-benefit ratios according to the LRS compared to FIB-4 and other risk scores such as MAF-5 and SAFE are required to determine its usefulness in referral strategies.

Coexisting steatotic liver disease is not associated with long-term liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Steatotic liver disease (SLD) is an emerging liver disease, whereas chronic viral hepatitis is the renowned cause of chronic liver disease leading to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The impact of coexisting SLD in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on liver-related events (LREs) in the long term is still debated. This study aims to compare all-cause mortality and LRE between CHB patients with and without SLD. This retrospective study included CHB patients who underwent transient elastography between 2014 and 2021 at a tertiary-care hospital. Exclusion criteria were those without controlled attenuated parameter (CAP) results, interquartile range/median of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) > 30%, follow-up time < 6 months, and without hepatitis B virus DNA data during follow-up. SLD was defined as CAP ≥ 248 dB/m, significant liver fibrosis (SF) as LSM ≥ 7 kPa, and cirrhosis as LSM ≥11 kPa or imaging evidence. LRE was defined as the development of HCC and/or cirrhosis complications. Among 532 patients (median follow-up 4.3 years), SLD was present in 161 (30.2%) patients, SF was found in 186 (34.5%) patients, and 104 (19.6%) patients had cirrhosis at baseline. SF was insignificantly more common in SLD patients (40.1% vs 32.4%, P = 0.068). Long-term outcomes showed SF, not SLD, was independently associated with higher LRE development with an adjusted HR of 13.85 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.06-62.76, P < 0.001), while the adjusted HR of SLD was 0.49 (95% CI: 0.16-1.53, P = 0.22). In conclusion, SLD commonly coexists with CHB patients. CHB patients with SLD were more likely to have SF at baseline, albeit not significantly. Long-term HCC and cirrhosis complications development are associated with SF but not SLD status.

Optimal Population Screening Strategies for Liver Fibrosis Associated With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is an important public health threat, potentially leading to chronic liver disease and liver cancer. Current guidelines recommend using the Fibrosis-4 score for initial identification of subjects at risk of future complications. We formulate a novel population screening strategy based on the Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score, recently developed for MASLD risk stratification in primary care.

METHODS

We interrogated the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, 2017-20, in which a sample of subjects representative of US civilian population underwent vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). The current guideline and a new, SAFE-based proposal were applied to these data to project the number of subjects to be diagnosed with liver fibrosis gauged by liver stiffness measurement (LSM), including significant (LSM ≥8 kPa) and advanced (LSM ≥12 kPa) fibrosis, as well as the number of VCTEs to be performed.

RESULTS

In the survey data, 2,691 subjects, projecting to 75.8 million US adults, were found to have MASLD, of whom 11% had LSM 8-12 kPa and 6% LSM ≥12 kPa. When the current guideline was applied, 18.1 million VCTEs would be needed to diagnose 3.5 million subjects with LSM ≥8 kPa and 1.7 million subjects with LSM ≥12 kPa. In comparison, a new approach based on the SAFE score would detect 4.9 million with LSM ≥8 kPa and 2.5 million subjects with LSM ≥12 kPa (37% and 45% improvement over the current guideline, respectively), while requiring 5.0 million fewer VCTEs (28% reduction).

DISCUSSION

The proposed population risk stratification approach using the SAFE score is simpler and substantially more effective, yielding more subjects with liver fibrosis while requiring less resources compared with the currently recommended algorithm.

Sequential SAFE Score and Transient Elastography for Detecting Significant Fibrosis in Asian Patients with MASLD

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), formerly known as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD),1 represents a global public health issue. Fibrosis stage is the most important risk for long-term undesirable outcomes.2,3 From recent meta-analyses, all-cause and liver-related mortalities significantly increased from fibrosis stage 2 (significant fibrosis; F≥2) onward.4,5 In primary care setting, those with F≥2 should be referred to hepatologists; therefore, noninvasive tests to stratify risk of patients with MASLD are crucial. Steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) was recently developed to predict F≥2.6 SAFE has been externally validated and outperformed fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS).7,8 Recently, international guidelines proposed sequential diagnostic steps, initially using FIB-4 and then transient elastography (TE) in non-low-risk patients.9,10 However, the guidelines focused on identifying advanced fibrosis (F≥3), which might be too late. This study aimed to compare the performance among SAFE, FIB-4, and NFS, and evaluate SAFE-TE sequential approach. We hypothesized that by initially using SAFE, the proportion of patients misclassified as low risk despite already having F≥2 could be diminished.

Diagnosis and management of metabolic dysfunction- associated steatotic liver disease in South Asians- A clinical review

Background

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a hepatic manifestation of obesity and metabolic syndrome. It is mainly caused by insulin resistance. With the increased risk of visceral obesity in South Asians, the prevalence of MASLD is on the rise. The morbidity associated with MASLD and its complications, including hepatocellular carcinoma is projected to increase in this South Asian population.

Methods

In this narrative review we explore the diagnosis and management of MASLD in the South Asian population. We summarize the findings from the recent literature on the diagnostic methods and management options for MASLD in this population.

Results

Through our search we found no specific guidelines for the diagnosis and management of MASLD in the South Asian population. The existing general guidelines may not be applied to South Asian populations due to the differences in phenotype, genotype, social and cultural aspects. South Asian countries also have limited resources with the non-availability of newer pharmacotherapeutic agents.

Conclusion

The goal of this review is to guide obesity physicians and primary care providers to have a stepwise approach to treat patients at risk for MASLD with a main focus on interdisciplinary management most applicable to South Asian patients. More research is needed to formulate guidelines and algorithm that are specific for the South Asian population.

Non-invasive testing in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously referred to as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is a leading cause of chronic liver disease, affecting up to 30% of the global population. MASLD is strongly associated with metabolic risk factors such as obesity and type 2 diabetes, and can progress to advanced stages including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Early diagnosis and accurate staging of fibrosis are critical in managing the disease and preventing complications. While liver biopsy has long been considered the gold standard for assessing fibrosis, it is invasive and carries associated risks. In response, non-invasive tests (NITs) have emerged as essential alternatives for the diagnosis and monitoring of MASLD. Key methods include blood-based biomarkers such as the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), and Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test, as well as imaging modalities like vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and magnetic resonance elastography (MRE). These tests provide safer, more accessible methods for identifying liver fibrosis and guiding clinical management. They are integral in assessing disease severity, guiding treatment decisions, and monitoring disease progression, particularly in light of emerging therapies. NITs have become increasingly recommended by clinical guidelines as they reduce the need for invasive procedures like liver biopsy, improving patient care and outcomes. In conclusion, non-invasive testing plays a crucial role in the effective management of MASLD, offering reliable alternatives for diagnosis and monitoring while minimizing risks associated with traditional invasive methods.

Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fibrosis 5 (MAF-5) Score Predicts Liver Fibrosis Risk and Outcome in the General Population With Metabolic Dysfunction

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There is an unmet need for noninvasive tests to improve case-finding and aid primary care professionals in referring patients at high risk of liver disease.

METHODS

A metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis (MAF-5) score was developed and externally validated in a total of 21,797 individuals with metabolic dysfunction in population-based (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, and Rotterdam Study) and hospital-based (from Antwerp and Bogota) cohorts. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was compared with FIB-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), LiverRisk score and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE). MAF-5 was externally validated with liver stiffness measurement ≥8.0 kPa, with shear-wave elastography ≥7.5 kPa, and biopsy-proven steatotic liver disease according to Metavir and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scores, and was tested for prognostic performance (all-cause mortality).

RESULTS

The MAF-5 score comprised waist circumference, body mass index (calculated as kg / m2), diabetes, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets. With this score, 60.9% was predicted at low, 14.1% at intermediate, and 24.9% at high risk of fibrosis. The observed prevalence was 3.3%, 7.9%, and 28.1%, respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve of MAF-5 (0.81) was significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.61), and outperformed the FIB-4 among young people (negative predictive value [NPV], 99%; area under the curve [AUC], 0.86 vs NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.51) and older adults (NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.75 vs NPV, 88%; AUC, 0.55). MAF-5 showed excellent performance to detect liver stiffness measurement ≥12 kPa (AUC, 0.86 training; AUC, 0.85 validation) and good performance in detecting liver stiffness and biopsy-proven liver fibrosis among the external validation cohorts. MAF-5 score >1 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in (un)adjusted models (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.47-1.73).

CONCLUSIONS

The MAF-5 score is a validated, age-independent, inexpensive referral tool to identify individuals at high risk of liver fibrosis and all-cause mortality in primary care populations, using simple variables.

Comparative evaluation of non-invasive tests for risk stratification for cause specific mortality in at-risk population of hepatic fibrosis

Our study aimed to conduct a comparative evaluation of various noninvasive tests (NITs) for risk stratification in at-risk population for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), focusing on cardiovascular and liver-related mortality. A total of 21,715 adults aged 40 years and older were enrolled at baseline. The mean follow-up period was 12.39 years. Three types of NITs (fibrosis-4 index [FIB-4], NAFLD fibrosis score [NFS], and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator [SAFE] score) were used. When using the low cut-off as a 'rule-out' strategy, there were no significant differences in cardiovascular mortality between the 'rule-out' (low-risk) group and the 'rule-in' (intermediate- or high-risk) group based on FIB-4 (aHR = 1.029, P = 0.845) or NFS (aHR = 0.839, P = 0.271) classification. However, the SAFE score exhibited higher sensitivity in predicting cardiovascular mortality compared to FIB-4 or NFS (73.3% in SAFE score vs. 29.6% in FIB-4 or 21.3% in NFS). Only the SAFE score could effectively differentiate the risk between low- and intermediate- or high-risk groups for all types of mortality (all P values for aHR < 0.001). The low cutoff value of the SAFE score discriminated not only liver-related mortality but also identified the cardiovascular high-risk group in the community cohort.

The Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score for assessing significant liver fibrosis in patients with psoriasis

BACKGROUND

There is an urgent need for noninvasive tests to identify patients with psoriasis at risk of significant liver fibrosis.

OBJECTIVES

To externally validate the ability of the Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score to detect significant liver fibrosis in patients with psoriasis using transient elastography (TE) as a reference.

METHODS

We analysed data from 75 patients with psoriasis, including TE, SAFE score, Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score (NFS). Significant liver fibrosis was defined as TE values ≥ 7.1 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

Fifteen patients (20%) exhibited significant liver fibrosis. The AUROCs for the SAFE and FIB-4 scores were 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.97] and 0.62 (95% CI 0.45-0.79), respectively. The SAFE score outperformed the FIB-4 Index (P = 0.01) but was comparable with the NFS (P = 0.05) in predicting significant fibrosis. Using thresholds of < 0, 0 to < 100 and ≥ 100, the SAFE score categorized 36, 24 and 15 patients into low, intermediate and high-risk groups for significant fibrosis, respectively. The negative predictive value for excluding significant fibrosis with a SAFE score of < 0 was 94.4%, and the positive predictive value for diagnosing significant fibrosis with a SAFE score of > 100 was 53.3%. The duration of psoriasis, joint involvement and methotrexate treatment did not affect the diagnostic ability of the SAFE score whereas age of the patient did.

CONCLUSIONS

The SAFE score demonstrated good accuracy in assessing clinically significant fibrosis among patients with psoriasis. This score should prove valuable for risk stratification and patient management in dermatology practice.

Urinary caffeine and its metabolites in association with advanced liver fibrosis and liver steatosis: a nationwide cross-sectional study

Aim: This study used urinary caffeine and its metabolites to evaluate their relationships with liver steatosis and advanced liver fibrosis. Methods: A total of 2068 adult participants with required data were filtered from the 2009-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cycles. Non-invasive scores were applied to define liver steatosis and advanced liver fibrosis. Logistic regression models, weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression models, quantile-based g-computation (QG-Comp) models, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression models were used to assess the associations of urinary caffeine and its metabolites with liver steatosis and advanced liver fibrosis. A series of additional analyses were conducted to examine the subgroup-specific differences and test the robustness of the observed results. Results: The major caffeine metabolite mixture and most individual caffeine metabolites were found to be negatively associated with the risk of advanced liver fibrosis with subgroup-specific variations. Only 7-MX consistently showed a negative association with liver steatosis in all analyses, while no association was observed between the major caffeine metabolite mixture and liver steatosis. Conclusion: The major caffeine metabolite mixture and most individual urinary caffeine metabolites exhibited inverse associations with advanced liver fibrosis with subgroup differences. Further prospective and experimental studies are urgently needed to verify our results and further identify the possible mechanisms.

Combating pan-coronavirus infection by indomethacin through simultaneously inhibiting viral replication and inflammatory response

Severe infections with coronaviruses are often accompanied with hyperinflammation, requiring therapeutic strategies to simultaneously tackle the virus and inflammation. By screening a safe-in-human broad-spectrum antiviral agents library, we identified that indomethacin can inhibit pan-coronavirus infection in human cell and airway organoids models. Combining indomethacin with oral antiviral drugs authorized for treating COVID-19 results in synergistic anti-coronavirus activity. Coincidentally, screening a library of FDA-approved drugs identified indomethacin as the most potent potentiator of interferon response through increasing STAT1 phosphorylation. Combining indomethacin with interferon-alpha exerted synergistic antiviral effects against multiple coronaviruses. The anti-coronavirus activity of indomethacin is associated with activating interferon response. In a co-culture system of lung epithelial cells with macrophages, indomethacin inhibited both viral replication and inflammatory response. Collectively, indomethacin is a pan-coronavirus inhibitor that can simultaneously inhibit virus-triggered inflammatory response. The therapeutic potential of indomethacin can be further augmented by combining it with oral antiviral drugs or interferon-alpha.