A review of contemporary methods for the presentation of scientific uncertainty

Conceptualising, evaluating and communicating uncertainty in forensic science: Identifying commonly used tools through an interdisciplinary configurative review

This study provides a set of tools for conceptualising, evaluating and communicating uncertainty in forensic science. Given that the concept of uncertainty is one that transcends disciplinary boundaries, an interdisciplinary configurative review was carried out incorporating the disciplines of medicine, environmental science and economics, in order to identify common themes which could have valuable applications to the discipline of forensic science. Critical Interpretive Synthesis was used to develop sub-synthetic and synthetic constructs which interpreted and synthesised the underlying evidence and codes. This study provides three toolkits, one each for conceptualisation, evaluation and communication. The study identified an underlying theme concerning the obstacles that would need to be overcome for the effective application of these toolkits and achieving effective conceptualisation, evaluation and communication of uncertainty in forensic science to lay-stakeholders. These toolkits offer a starting point for developing the conversation for achieving greater transparency in the communication of uncertainty. They also have the potential to offer stakeholders enhanced understanding of the nuances and limitations of forensic science evidence and enable more transparent evaluation and scrutiny of the reliability, relevance and probative value of forensic materials in a crime reconstruction.

The effect of cognitive load on decision making with graphically displayed uncertainty information

An experiment examined the ability of five graphical displays to communicate uncertainty information when end users were under cognitive load (i.e., remembering an eight-digit number). The extent to which people could accurately derive information from the graphs and the adequacy of decisions about optimal behaviors based on the graphs were assessed across eight scenarios in which probabilistic outcomes were described. Results indicated that the load manipulation did not have an overall effect on derivation of information from the graphs (i.e., mean and probability estimation) but did suppress the ability to optimize behavioral choices based on the graph. Cognitive load affected people's use of some graphical displays (basic probability distribution function) more than others. Overall, the research suggests that interpreting basic characteristics of uncertainty data is unharmed under conditions of limited cognitive resources, whereas more deliberative processing is negatively affected.