1
|
Nakase T, Brownwright T, Okunromade O, Egwuenu A, Ogunbode O, Lawal B, Akanbi K, Grant G, Bassey OO, Coughlin MM, Bankamp B, Adetifa I, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari M. The impact of sub-national heterogeneities in demography and epidemiology on the introduction of rubella vaccination programs in Nigeria. Vaccine 2024; 42:125982. [PMID: 38811269 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.05.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2024] [Revised: 05/14/2024] [Accepted: 05/14/2024] [Indexed: 05/31/2024]
Abstract
Rubella infection during pregnancy can result in miscarriage or infants with a constellation of birth defects known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). When coverage is inadequate, rubella vaccination can increase CRS cases by increasing the average age of infection. Thus, the World Health Organisation recommends that countries introducing rubella vaccine be able to vaccinate at least 80% of each birth cohort. Previous studies have focused on national-level analyses and have overlooked sub-national variation in introduction risk. We characterised the sub-national heterogeneity in rubella transmission within Nigeria and modelled local rubella vaccine introduction under different scenarios to refine the set of conditions and strategies required for safe rubella vaccine use. Across Nigeria, the basic reproduction number ranged from 2.6 to 6.2. Consequently, the conditions for safe vaccination varied across states with low-risk areas requiring coverage levels well below 80 %. In high-risk settings, inadequate routine coverage needed to be supplemented by campaigns that allowed for gradual improvements in vaccination coverage over time. Understanding local heterogeneities in both short-term and long-term epidemic dynamics can permit earlier nationwide introduction of rubella vaccination and identify sub-national areas suitable for program monitoring, program improvement and campaign support.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Taishi Nakase
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Tenley Brownwright
- Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | | | - Abiodun Egwuenu
- Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, FCT, Nigeria
| | - Oladipo Ogunbode
- Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, FCT, Nigeria
| | - Bola Lawal
- Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, FCT, Nigeria
| | - Kayode Akanbi
- Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, FCT, Nigeria
| | - Gavin Grant
- Global Immunization Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, FCT, Nigeria
| | - Orji O Bassey
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, FCT, Nigeria
| | - Melissa M Coughlin
- Division of Viral Disease, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Bettina Bankamp
- Division of Viral Disease, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Ifedayo Adetifa
- Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, FCT, Nigeria
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Matthew Ferrari
- Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Kinoshita R, Arai S, Suzuki M, Nishiura H. Identifying the population susceptible to rubella in Japan, 2020: Fine-scale risk mapping. J Infect Public Health 2024; 17:947-955. [PMID: 38608455 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2024.03.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2023] [Revised: 03/13/2024] [Accepted: 03/27/2024] [Indexed: 04/14/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rubella remains a public health challenge in Japan, impeding the attainment of herd immunity. Despite vaccination efforts since 1976, persistent outbreaks reveal a susceptibility gap in male adults born before 1995. Seroepidemiological surveys are pivotal in evaluating population immunity and identifying at-risk groups. METHODS This study aims to pinpoint high-risk areas for potential rubella outbreaks in Japan by merging seroepidemiological data from 2020 with population census information. Various data sources, including spatial demographic data, reported rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) cases, and traveler lodging statistics, were employed. Geospatial information for Japan's 230,300 small geographic areas was analyzed, and HI (hemagglutination inhibition) titers were examined by age and sex. Seroconversion was defined as an HI titer ≥ 1:32 or 1:16, indicating protective immunity. Geospatial maps illustrated the distribution of susceptible individuals per square kilometer, emphasizing high-risk urban areas like Tokyo and Osaka. Demographic shifts in the working-age population were assessed. RESULTS Susceptible individuals cluster in densely populated urban centers, persisting despite demographic changes. The study highlights areas at risk of increased susceptibility, particularly with an HI titer cut-off of 1:16. Foreign travelers pose potential rubella importation risks as travel volume to Japan rises. To prevent epidemics and congenital rubella syndrome burden, achieving and sustaining herd immunity in high-risk areas is crucial. CONCLUSIONS This study offers a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability in densely populated Japanese regions. Integrating population statistics with seroepidemiological data enhances our understanding of population immunity, guiding resource allocation for supplementary vaccination planning. To avert rubella epidemics, high-risk locations must bolster indirect protection through herd immunity, ultimately preventing congenital rubella syndrome.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ryo Kinoshita
- Center for Surveillance, Immunization, and Epidemiologic Research, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan; Kyoto University School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Satoru Arai
- Center for Surveillance, Immunization, and Epidemiologic Research, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Motoi Suzuki
- Center for Surveillance, Immunization, and Epidemiologic Research, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
| | | |
Collapse
|
3
|
Mojarad N, Forouzani F, Mohammadi Z, Shahriarirad R. Serosurvey of anti-rubella and anti-measles IgG antibodies in young females in Jahrom, southern west Iran in 2012: A review of literature of the serological profile in Iran. J Gen Fam Med 2024; 25:95-101. [PMID: 38481743 PMCID: PMC10927936 DOI: 10.1002/jgf2.677] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2022] [Revised: 01/09/2024] [Accepted: 02/09/2024] [Indexed: 11/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Rubella and measles are two highly contagious viral childhood diseases. However, the high possibility of brutal effects of both microorganisms during pregnancy has kept them emerging as a major public health issue. The current study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of rubella and measles among 15-25-year-old females in southwest Iran. Method This descriptive study was performed in Jahrom, southern west Iran during 2012. Serum samples from female individuals with an age of 15-25 years visiting main laboratories in our study location were collected and evaluated by a commercial ELISA kit for anti-rubella and measles IgG antibodies. Results Among the 179 participants, regarding anti-rubella antibodies, 171 (95.0%) were positive, 3 (1.7%) were negative, and 6 (3.3%) were borderline. Regarding anti-measles antibodies, 166 (92.2%) of the subjects were positive, 1 (5.6%) was negative, and 13 (17.2%) were borderline. By assuming a positive value for the borderline cases, the ultimate findings demonstrated that 98.3% and 99.4% of the participants were immune against rubella and measles, respectively. There was no statistically significant association between measles and rubella immunity with age or the use of immunosuppressor medication. Conclusion Implementation of vaccine program has obtained significant immunity level in inhabitants, particularly women of childbearing age who play a more important role in herd immunity. Therefore, maintaining the national immune screening against rubella and measles is needed to take into consideration to maintain the current satisfactory level of immunization.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Najmeh Mojarad
- School of MedicineJahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran
| | | | - Zahra Mohammadi
- Student Research CommitteeShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran
| | - Reza Shahriarirad
- Student Research CommitteeShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran
- Thoracic and Vascular Surgery Research CenterShiraz University of Medical ScienceShirazIran
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Rodriguez-Cartes SA, Zhang Y, Mayorga ME, Swann JL, Allaire BT. Evaluating the potential impact of rubella-containing vaccine introduction on congenital rubella syndrome in Afghanistan, Dem. Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Pakistan: A mathematical modeling study. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 4:e0002656. [PMID: 38227558 PMCID: PMC10791005 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/18/2024]
Abstract
We assessed the potential impact of introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) on congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) incidence in Afghanistan (AFG), Democratic Republic of Congo (COD), Ethiopia (ETH), Nigeria (NGA), and Pakistan (PAK). We simulated several RCV introduction scenarios over 30 years using a validated mathematical model. Our findings indicate that RCV introduction could avert between 86,000 and 535,000 CRS births, preventing 2.5 to 15.8 million disability-adjusted life years. AFG and PAK could reduce about 90% of CRS births by introducing RCV with current measles routine coverage and executing supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). However, COD, NGA, and ETH must increase their current routine vaccination coverage to reduce CRS incidence significantly. This study showcases the potential benefits of RCV introduction and reinforces the need for global action to strengthen immunization programs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian A. Rodriguez-Cartes
- Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Yiwei Zhang
- Operations Research Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Maria E. Mayorga
- Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
- Operations Research Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Julie L. Swann
- Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
- Operations Research Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Benjamin T. Allaire
- RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Cheng A, Frey K, Mwamba GN, McCarthy KA, Hoff NA, Rimoin AW. Examination of scenarios introducing rubella vaccine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Vaccine X 2021; 9:100127. [PMID: 34849482 PMCID: PMC8608602 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvacx.2021.100127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2021] [Revised: 10/10/2021] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Serosurvey data suggest R0 values for rubella in the DRC on the range 3 to 8. Supplementary immunization activities provide multi-decade reduction in burden. Post-vaccine introduction, burden will likely be concentrated in outbreaks.
Background Rubella vaccine has yet to be introduced into the national immunization schedule of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); the current burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) is unknown and likely to be high. An important consideration prior to introducing rubella containing vaccine (RCV) is the potential inverse relationship between RCV coverage and CRS incidence. Increasing RCV coverage will also increase in the average age of infection. Cumulative infections across all age groups will decrease, but the number of infections in age groups vulnerable to CRS may increase. Methods Rubella transmission dynamics in the DRC were simulated using a stochastic agent-based model of transmission. Input parameter values for known properties, demographic variables, and interventions were fixed; infectivity was inferred from seropositivity profiles in survey data. Results Our simulations of RCV introduction for the DRC demonstrate that an increase in CRS burden is unlikely. Continued endemic transmission is only plausible when routine immunization coverage is less than 40% and follow-up supplemental immunization activities have poor coverage for decades. Conclusion Increased vaccination coverage tends to increase the annual variability of CRS burden. Simulations examining low vaccination coverage and high mean CRS burden are outbreak prone, with multiple years of reduced burden followed by acute outbreaks. These outcomes contrast simulations with no vaccination coverage and high mean CRS burden, which have more consistent burden from year to year.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alvan Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Kurt Frey
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Kevin A McCarthy
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nicole A Hoff
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Anne W Rimoin
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Plotkin SA. Rubella Eradication: Not Yet Accomplished, but Entirely Feasible. J Infect Dis 2021; 224:S360-S366. [PMID: 34590132 PMCID: PMC8482023 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Rubella virus is the most teratogenic virus known to science and is capable of causing large epidemics. The RA 27/3 rubella vaccine, usually combined with measles vaccine, has eliminated rubella and congenital rubella syndrome from much of the world, notably from the Western Hemisphere. Except in immunosuppressed individuals, it is remarkably safe. Together with rubella vaccine strains used in China and Japan, eradication of the rubella virus is possible, indeed more feasible than eradication of measles or mumps.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Stanley A Plotkin
- Emeritus Professor of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania, Vaxconsult, Doylestown, Pennsylvania, USA
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Higgins SG, Hoff NA, Gadoth A, Fusellier A, Mukadi P, Alfonso V, Randall C, Ashbaugh H, Poncheri M, Doshi RH, Gerber S, Budd R, Wolfert R, Williams R, Okitolonda-Wemakoy E, Muyembe-Tamfum JJ, Rimoin AW. Field Test and Validation of the Multiplier Measles, Mumps, Rubella, and Varicella-Zoster Multiplexed Assay System in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by Using Dried Blood Spots. mSphere 2019; 4:e00112-19. [PMID: 31413172 PMCID: PMC6695516 DOI: 10.1128/msphere.00112-19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2019] [Accepted: 06/19/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Here we describe baseline validation studies and field performance of a research-use-only chemiluminescent multiplex serology panel for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella-zoster virus used with dried blood spots in support of the 2013-2014 Democratic Republic of the Congo Demographic and Health Survey. Characterization of the panel using U.S. FDA-cleared commercial kits shows good concordance for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella-zoster with average sensitivity across assays of 94.9% and an average specificity of 91.4%. As expected, performance versus available standards validated for plaque-reduction assays does not provide a 1:1 correspondence with international units and yet demonstrates excellent linearity (average Hill's slope = 1.02) and ∼4 logs of dynamic range. In addition, for the four assays, the multiplexed format allowed for inclusion of three positive and two negative controls for each sample. A prototype Dynex Multiplier chemiluminescent automated immunoassay instrument with a charge-coupled device camera provided a rugged and robust processing and data acquisition platform. Performance of a multiplex instrument for serological testing in a substantially resource-limited environment shows excellent reproducibility, minimal cross-reactivity, and a clear discrimination between specific assays and should be considered a viable option for future serosurveys.IMPORTANCE The critical evaluation of immunization programs is key to identifying areas of suboptimal vaccination coverage, monitoring activities, and aiding development of public health policy. For evaluation of vaccine effectiveness, direct antibody binding assay methods, including enzyme immunoassay, enzyme-linked fluorescence assays, and indirect immunofluorescence assay, are most commonly used for detection of IgG antibodies. However, despite their well-demonstrated, reliable performance, they can be labor-intensive and time-consuming and require separate assays for each individual marker. This necessitates increased sample volumes, processing time, and personnel, which may limit assessment to a few key targets in resource-limited settings, that is, low- and middle-income locations where funding for public health or general infrastructure that directly impacts public health is restricted, limiting access to equipment, infrastructure, and trained personnel. One solution is a multiplexed immunoassay, which allows for the detection of multiple analytes in a single reaction for increased efficiency and rapid surveillance of infectious diseases in limited-resource settings. Thus, the scope of the project precluded a full validation, and here we present abbreviated validation studies demonstrating adequate sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Nicole A Hoff
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Adva Gadoth
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | | | - Patrick Mukadi
- National Institute of Biomedical Research (INRB), Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Vivian Alfonso
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | | | - Hayley Ashbaugh
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | | | - Reena H Doshi
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Sue Gerber
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Roger Budd
- Dynex Technologies Inc., Chantilly, Virginia, USA
| | | | - Russell Williams
- UCLA-DRC Research Program, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Emile Okitolonda-Wemakoy
- Kinshasa School of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | | | - Anne W Rimoin
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Ahmed MAA, Mohamedain A, Ali AA, Adam I. Seroprevelence of rubella among children suspected of having measles in Gadarif Hospital, Eastern Sudan. Sudan J Paediatr 2019; 19:14-18. [PMID: 31384083 DOI: 10.24911/sjp.106-1548830177] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
While generally mild in children, rubella infection during pregnancy can lead to miscarriage, foetal death or congenital rubella syndrome. Rubella vaccination is not yet available as a part of routine immunisation in Sudan, and the burden of infection is unknown. Using the clinical case definition adopted by the World Health Organisation, a total of 123 children suspected of having of measles were enrolled in this study during January-December 2017 in Gadarif Hospital, Eastern Sudan. Those cases whose sera were negative for measles IgM antibodies were tested for rubella IgM antibody. A confirmed rubella case was a person who tested positive for rubella IgM. Sera were analysed for IgM specific antibodies against measles virus and rubella virus using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Among the total 123 children suspected to have measles, 92 (74.8%) children were positive for measles IgM antibodies. Of the 31 children who had measles IgM antibodies negative, 20 (16.3%) children were seropositive for rubella IgM antibodies. Implementation of a surveillance system will provide the improved estimates of rubella virus and estimated the burden of congenital rubella syndrome. Such information is necessary and it is an important step for future policy decisions for vaccine delivery strategies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Ahmed Mohamedain
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan.,Department of Biomedical Sciences, King Faisal University, Alhasa, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Ishag Adam
- Unaizah College of Medicine, Qassim University, Unaizah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Use of FTA Cards To Transport Throat Swabs and Oral Fluid Samples for Molecular Detection and Genotyping of Measles and Rubella Viruses. J Clin Microbiol 2019; 57:JCM.00048-19. [PMID: 30814262 DOI: 10.1128/jcm.00048-19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2019] [Accepted: 02/16/2019] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
The genetic characterization of measles viruses is an important tool for measles surveillance. Reverse cold chain requirements for the transportation of samples to reference laboratories are challenging in resource-limited settings. FTA cards facilitate the transport of virologic samples at ambient temperature as noninfectious material; however, the utility of FTA cards for the detection and genotyping of measles virus from clinical samples has not been evaluated. Throat swabs (TS) and oral fluid (OF) samples were collected from suspected measles cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Virus detection (reverse transcription-quantitative real-time PCR [RT-qPCR]) and genotyping (endpoint RT-PCR) were compared for samples from 238 suspected cases; these samples were either transported using the reverse cold chain or at ambient temperature on FTA cards. Virus detection showed excellent positive agreement for OF samples compared to TS (95.3%; confidence interval [CI], 91.6 to 97.4), in contrast to 79.4% (CI, 73.5 to 84.3) for TS on FTA, and 85.5% (CI, 80.2 to 89.6) for OF on FTA compared to OF samples. Genotyping results obtained for a subset of samples indicated that 77.3% of all TS and 71.0% of OF samples would produce genotype information compared to 41.6% of TS and 41.3% of OF on FTA cards. Similar results were found for 16 measles-negative samples that were confirmed as rubella cases. Measles genotype B3 and rubella genotype 2B were detected. FTA cards have limited utility for virologic surveillance of sporadic cases of measles; however, they can be a useful tool for the expansion of virologic surveillance in countries where the reverse cold chain is not available.
Collapse
|