Predictors of mortality within 6 weeks after treatment of gastric variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients

Comparison of different severity scores in correlating hemoglobin levels with the severity of hepatic decompensation: An observational study

BACKGROUND

Chronic liver disease is a growing global health problem, leading to hepatic decompensation characterized by an array of clinical and biochemical complications. Several scoring systems have been introduced in assessing the severity of hepatic decompensation with the most frequent ones are Child-Pugh score, model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and MELD-Na score. Anemia is frequently observed in cirrhotic patients and is linked to worsened clinical outcomes. Although studies have explored anemia in liver disease, few have investigated the correlation of hemoglobin level with the severity of hepatic decompensation.

AIM

To determine the relationship between hemoglobin levels and the severity of decompensated liver disease and comparing the strength of this correlation using the Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-Na scores.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital with 652 decompensated liver disease patients enrolled in the study. Data was collected on demographics, clinical history, and laboratory findings, including hemoglobin levels, bilirubin, albumin, prothrombin time (international normalized ratio), sodium, and creatinine. The Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-Na scores were calculated. Statistical analysis was performed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 26, and correlations between hemoglobin levels and severity scores were assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

The study included 405 males (62.1%) and 247 females (37.9%) with an average age of 58.8 years. Significant inverse correlations were found between hemoglobin levels and Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-Na scores (P < 0.01), with the MELD scoring system being the strongest correlator among all. One-way analysis of variance revealed significant differences in hemoglobin levels across the severity groups of each scoring system (P = 0.001). Tukey's post hoc analysis confirmed significant internal differences among each severity group.

CONCLUSION

Understanding the correlation between hemoglobin and liver disease severity can improve patient management by offering insights into prognosis and guiding treatment decisions.

Risk Factors for Rebleeding After Endoscopic Injection of Cyanoacrylate Glue for Gastric Varices: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Rebleeding is a significant complication of endoscopic injection of cyanoacrylate in gastric varices in cirrhotic patients.

AIM

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the efficiency of endoscopic cyanoacrylate injection and summarized the risk factors for rebleeding.

METHODS

Databases were searched for articles published between January 2012 and December 2022. Studies evaluating the efficiency of endoscopic injection of cyanoacrylate glue for gastric varices and the risk factors for rebleeding were included.

RESULTS

The final analysis included data from 24 studies. The hemostatic rates ranged from 65 to 100%. The pooled rate of gastric varices recurrence was 34% [95% CI 21-46, I2 = 61.4%], early rebleeding rate was 16% [95% CI 11-20, I2 = 37.4%], late rebleeding rate was 39% [95% CI 36-42, I2 = 90.9%], mild and moderate adverse events rate were 28% [95% CI 24-31, I2 = 91.6%], 3% [95% CI - 2 to 8, I2 = 15.3%], rebleeding-related mortality rate was 6% [95% CI 2-10, I2 = 0%], all-cause mortality rate was 17% [95% CI 12-22, I2 = 63.6%]. Independent risk factors for gastric variceal rebleeding included portal venous thrombosis, ascites, cyanoacrylate volume, fever/systemic inflammatory response syndrome, red Wale sign, previous history of variceal bleeding, active bleeding and paragastric veins. The use of proton pump inhibitors could be a protective factor.

CONCLUSIONS

Endoscopic cyanoacrylate glue injection is an effective and safe treatment for gastric varices. Cirrhotic patients with the above risk factors may benefit from treatment aimed at reducing portal hypertension, antibiotic prophylaxis, and anticoagulation if they meet the indications.

Proton Pump Inhibitors Increases Longitudinal Risk of Mortality, Decompensation, and Infection in Cirrhosis: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are frequently prescribed to cirrhotic patients, but there is limited longitudinal evidence regarding their effects. This study aimed to assess the impact of PPIs on adverse events in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

A comprehensive search was conducted using the Medline and Embase databases to identify relevant articles. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model were calculated to evaluate the risk of adverse events such as long-term mortality, hepatic decompensation, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), and overall infection in cirrhotic patients with PPI use.

RESULTS

The analysis included 28 studies with 260,854 cirrhotic patients. The prevalence of PPI use among cirrhotic patients was 55.93%. The use of PPIs was not significantly associated with short-term mortality in cirrhotic patients. However, long-term mortality (HR 1.321, 95% CI 1.103-1.581, P = 0.002), decompensation (HR 1.646, 95% CI 1.477-1.835, P < 0.001), HE (HR 1.968, 95% CI 1.372-2.822, P < 0.001), SBP (HR 1.751, 95% CI 1.649-1.859, P < 0.001), and infection (HR 1.370, 95% CI 1.148-1.634, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with PPI use. Sensitivity analysis with prospective studies yielded similar results.

CONCLUSION

PPIs should be reserved for appropriate indications at lowest effective dose for cirrhotic patients due to the potential harm.

Endoscopic ultrasound-guided diagnosis and treatment of gastric varices

Gastric varices (GV) represent a common and severe complication in patients with portal hypertension, commonly seen in patients with cirrhosis and severe pancreatic disease. Endoscopic ultrasonography is a safe and efficacious approach that can perform real-time ultrasonic scanning and intervention for the gastrointestinal submucosa, portal vein and its tributaries, and collateral circulations during direct endoscopic observation. Recently, various studies have been published about endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided management of GV, mainly including diagnosis, treatment, and prognostic analysis. This article reviews published articles and guidelines to present the development process and current management of EUS-guided GV procedures.

Comparison of outcomes between variceal and non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis: Insights from a Nationwide Inpatient Sample

Background

Variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (VUGIB) occurs in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, but non-VUGIB (NVUGIB) is not uncommon. We compared the outcomes of VUGIB and NVUGIB in cirrhotic patients.

Methods

This retrospective study used Nationwide Inpatient Sample employing International Classification of Diseases codes for adult NVUGIB and VUGIB patients. Mortality, morbidity, and resource utilization were compared. Analyses were performed using STATA; proportions and continuous variables were compared using Fisher's exact and Student's t-test, respectively. Confounding variables were adjusted using propensity matching, multivariate logistic and linear regression analyses.

Results

Of 2,166,194 cirrhotics, 92,439 had a diagnosis of NVUGIB and 17,620 VUGIB. VUGIB patients had higher rates of mortality [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-1.69], hemorrhagic shock (aOR 1.84, 95%CI 1.54-2.17) and intensive care unit admission (aOR 2.47, 95%CI 2.18-2.81), greater hospitalization costs ($16,251 vs. $12,295, P<0.001), more need for packed red blood cell transfusion (aOR 1.12, 95%CI 1.03-1.22) or endoscopic therapy (aOR 2.71, 95%CI 2.47-2.93), and a longer hospital stay compared to NVUGIB. However, NVUGIB had higher aOR of undergoing diagnostic endoscopy and radiography-guided vessel embolization. There were no differences in the rates of acute kidney injury between the 2 groups. Ascites and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis were independently associated with increased VUGIB mortality.

Conclusions

VUGIB in patients with cirrhosis is associated with greater hospital costs, mortality, and morbidity burden than NVUGIB. This study provides updated and current knowledge of patient characteristics and differences in outcomes between VUGIB and NVUGIB, required to successfully address the healthcare delivery gaps.

Diagnostic and interventional EUS in hepatology: An updated review

EUS has become an increasingly used diagnostic and therapeutic modality in the armamentarium of endoscopists. With ever-expanding indications, EUS is being used in patients with liver disease, for both diagnosis and therapy. EUS is playing an important role in providing additional important information to that provided by cross-sectional imaging modalities such as computerized tomography and magnetic resonance imaging. Domains of therapy that were largely restricted to interventional radiologists have become accessible to endosonologists. From liver biopsy and sampling of liver lesions to ablative therapy for liver lesions and vascular interventions for varices, there is increased use of EUS in patients with liver disease. In this review, we discuss the various diagnostic and therapeutic applications of EUS in patients with various liver diseases.

Ендоскопічне лікування кровотеч із варикозно розширених вен шлунка

Кровотеча з варикозно розширених вен стравоходу та шлунка є найнебезпечнішим для життя ускладненням цирозу печінки та портальної гіпертензії. Кровотеча з варикозно розширених вен шлунка часто є серйознішою та може призвести до смерті. Для її зупинки спочатку проводиться ендоскопічне лікування. Зараз міжнародні консенсусні рекомендації щодо лікування кровотечі з варикозу шлунка відрізняються залежно від ендоскопічної класифікації. Варикозне розширення вен шлунка має іншу фізіологію та клінічні характеристики порівняно з варикозним розширенням вен стравоходу. Існує мало інформації про способи гемостазу при кровотечі зі шлункових вариксів. Незважаючи на те, що кілька нещодавніх розробок щодо препаратів і методів поліпшили результати при цій патології, консенсус щодо оптимального лікування не досягнутий. У цій статті розглядаються сучасні можливості ендоскопічного втручання при варикозній кровотечі зі шлунка за літературними даними з бази MedLine.

Comparison of endoscopic ultrasound-guided coil deployment with and without cyanoacrylate injection for gastric varices

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Gastric variceal bleeding is more severe than esophageal variceal bleeding, and is associated with higher rebleeding and mortality rates. The benefits of endoscopic ultrasound-guided coil deployment alone for treating gastric varices, compared with concomitant cyanoacrylate injection, remain unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the outcomes of both modalities.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data of patients who underwent endoscopic ultrasound-guided coil deployment with/without concomitant cyanoacrylate injection for gastric varices between 2010 and 2021 were reviewed. The rates of rebleeding, reintervention, and survival were assessed.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight patients (mean age, 55.9 ± 12.9 years; 17 men) underwent endoscopic ultrasound-guided coil deployment, either alone (EUS-coil) (n = 19) or with cyanoacrylate injection (EUS-coil/CYA) (n = 9), to treat cardiofundal varices. Among the 20 patients treated for secondary prophylaxis, including 3 actively bleeding patients (11 via EUS-coil, 9 with EUS-coil/CYA), no significant differences were observed in the rates of rebleeding (1 vs. 2), reintervention (1 vs. 0) or adverse events (1 vs. 1) (all P > 0.05). The 6-month, 1-year, and 3-year overall survival rates did not differ between the treatment groups (crude survival ratio: 76.9% vs. 77.8%; survival rates: 0.923, 0.682, and 0.615 vs. 0.778 for each year; log-rank = 0.227; P = 0.633). In patients treated for primary prophylaxis (n = 8; all via EUS-coil alone), no bleeding episodes were observed after 433 days of follow-up; however, one patient required reintervention for the reappearance of varices without bleeding.

CONCLUSION

EUS-coil alone was not inferior to EUS-coil/CYA combination concerning rebleeding, reintervention, or survival.

Additional Benefits Conferred by Endoscopic Sclerotherapy to Liver Cirrhosis Patients Receiving Endoscopic Variceal Ligation

Objective

Gastroesophageal varices are a direct consequence of portal hypertension in cirrhosis. The management of gastroesophageal varices has evolved over the last decade resulting in reduced mortality and morbidity rates. The study was aimed to analyze the short-term and long-term efficacy of different endoscopic methods in the treatment of gastric varices in cirrhotic patients.

Methods

From January 2016 to December 2019, 135 patients with liver cirrhosis and gastric varices undergoing different endoscopic treatment protocols were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into three groups according to endoscopic variceal ligation, endoscopic sclerotherapy, and a combination of both, respectively. Main outcomes including the overall response rate, hemostasis, short- and long-term rebleeding (3 months before and after treatment), complication, blood pressure, heart rate, portal venous pressure (PVP), portal vein diameter (PVD), portal vein velocity (PVV), portal vein blood flow (PVF) detected by ultrasound, recurrence rate, and mortality were analyzed after treatments.

Results

The overall response rate in the combined group was higher than that in the ligation group and the sclerotherapy group (P < 0.05). The incidence rate of complications in the combined group and the ligation group was lower than that in the sclerotherapy group (P < 0.05). After treatment, the PVP, PVD, and PVF were reduced in the combined group compared with the ligation group and the sclerotherapy group, while the PVV was not (P < 0.05). Lower rates of long-term rebleeding, recurrence, and mortality were noted in the combined group compared to the ligation group and the sclerotherapy group (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

Endoscopic variceal ligation combined with endoscopic sclerotherapy is more effective than both alone in treating liver cirrhosis and gastric varices. The combined therapy contributed to reduced short-term and long-term rebleeding rate, decreased long-term recurrence rate, and mortality.

Safety and efficacy of EUS-guided coil and glue injection for the primary prophylaxis of gastric variceal hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Gastric variceal bleeding (GVB) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. EUS-guided coil and cyanoacrylate (CYA) injection (EUS-CCI) has been shown to be an effective therapy in acute bleeding and secondary prophylaxis; however, there is a paucity of data on primary prophylaxis.

METHODS

In this single-center observational study, adult patients with high-risk gastric varices (GV; size >10 mm or cherry red spot) without prior bleeding underwent EUS-CCI for the primary prophylaxis of GVB between June 2009 and December 2019. The primary outcome was post-treatment GVB.

RESULTS

Eighty patients with a mean variceal size of 22.5 ± 9.4 mm and a mean length of follow-up of 3.0 ± 2.4 years were included. The etiology of portal hypertension was cirrhosis in 71 patients (88.7%) and noncirrhotic in 9 (11.3). The mean model for end-stage liver disease score was 12.3 ± 3.7 in patients with cirrhosis. The mean coil number was 1.5 (range, 1-3) and mean glue volume injected 2 mL (range, .5-5). Technical success was achieved in 100%, 96.7% had EUS confirmation of GV obliteration, and 67.7% were obliterated with 1 treatment session. Post-treatment GVB occurred in 2 patients (2.5%) and adverse events in 4 (4.9%). No deaths related to GVB occurred, and emergent transjugular intrahepatic shunts were not needed during the follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with high-risk GV, EUS-CCI for primary prophylaxis is highly effective at preventing GVB with a low rate of adverse events. Primary prophylaxis of high-risk GV with coil and CYA glue injection should be considered in centers with the appropriate expertise.

Impact of acute kidney injury on mortality in patients with acute variceal bleeding

Background

The effect of acute kidney injury (AKI) on patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) using the recently proposed International Club of Ascites (ICA) criteria is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of AKI using the ICA criteria and factors associated with the outcomes in cirrhotic patients with AVB.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included data of cirrhotic patients with AVB from two centers in Korea. The association of the ICA criteria for AKI with 6-week mortality was analyzed through univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

In total, there were 546 episodes of AVB in 390 patients, of which 425 and 121 episodes were due to esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding, respectively. Moreover, 153 patients fulfilled the ICA criteria for AKI, and 64, 30, 39, and 20 patients were diagnosed with stages 1a, 1b, 2, and 3, respectively. Conversely, 97 patients developed AKI within 42 days as per the conventional criteria. The 6-week mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with ICA-AKI than in patients without ICA-AKI; the occurrence of ICA-AKI was an independent factor for predicting the 6-week mortality.

Conclusion

The ICA criteria could help diagnose renal dysfunction earlier, and presence of AKI is a predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis and AVB.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01862-x.

Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Creation for Treatment of Gastric Varices: Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of Clinical Outcomes

PURPOSE

To quantify the pooled clinical outcomes of stent-graft transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation for the management of gastric varices (GVs) through systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A PubMed and Embase search was performed from 2003 to 2020. Search terms included: (transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt OR TIPS) AND (gastric varices OR fundal varices OR gastroesophageal varices OR gastroesophageal varices) AND (hemorrhage OR rebleeding OR rebleeding OR survival). Inclusion criteria spanned: English language studies, publication in peer reviewed journals, sample size ≥ 10, reported clinical outcome data, exclusive treatment of GVs (no esophageal varices), exclusive use of stent-grafts for TIPS, no chemical obliteration of GVs. Outcomes included GV rebleeding rate, overall rebleeding rate, GV occlusion rate, hepatic encephalopathy (HE) incidence, and adverse event (AE) rate.

RESULTS

Literature search yielded 936 articles. Of these, 5 (0.5%) retrospective observational cohort studies met inclusion criteria, spanning 209 patients (quinquagenarian men with viral or alcoholic liver disease) with GVs treated using TIPS with adjunctive coil embolization (47%). Clinical follow-up time ranged from 4.3 to 30.6 months. Outcomes included a pooled GV rebleeding rate of 15% (95% CI: 11%, 20%), total rebleeding rate of 21% (95% CI: 15%, 27%), GV occlusion rate of 33% (95% CI: 22%, 45%), HE incidence of 30% (95% CI: 24%, 36%), and AE incidence of 3% (95% CI: 1%, 8%).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of GV rebleeding after stent-graft TIPS is high. The results suggest the need for additional measures to reduce recurrent hemorrhage incidence from GVs.

Beyond the scope and the glue: update on evaluation and management of gastric varices

Gastric varices are encountered less frequently than esophageal varices. Nonetheless, gastric variceal bleeding is more severe and associated with worse outcomes. Conventionally, gastric varices have been described based on the location and extent and endoscopic treatments offered based on these descriptions. With improved understanding of portal hypertension and the dynamic physiology of collateral circulation, gastric variceal classification has been refined to include inflow and outflow based hemodynamic pathways. These have led to an improvement in the management of gastric variceal disease through newer modalities of treatment such as endoscopic ultrasound-guided glue-coiling combination therapy and the emergence of highly effective endovascular treatments such as shunt and variceal complex embolization with or without transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement in patients who are deemed ‘difficult’ to manage the traditional way. Furthermore, the decisions regarding TIPS and additional endovascular procedures in patients with gastric variceal bleeding have changed after the emergence of ‘portal hypertension theories’ of proximity, throughput, and recruitment. The hemodynamic classification, grounded on novel theories and its cognizance, can help in identifying patients at baseline, in whom conventional treatment could fail. In this exhaustive review, we discuss the conventional and hemodynamic diagnosis of gastric varices concerning new classifications; explore and illustrate new ‘portal hypertension theories’ of gastric variceal disease and corresponding management and shed light on current evidence-based treatments through a ‘new’ algorithmic approach, established on hemodynamic physiology of gastric varices.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure as a major predictive factor for mortality in patients with variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND/AIMS

This study examined the risk factors associated with mortality in cirrhotic patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding, and evaluated the effects of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) on the prognosis of these patients.

METHODS

This study was retrospectively conducted on patients registered in the Korean acute-on-chronic liver failure study cohort, and on 474 consecutive cirrhotic patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding from January 2013 to December 2013 at 21 university hospitals. ACLF was defined as described by the European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure Consortium.

RESULTS

Among a total of 474 patients, 61 patients were diagnosed with ACLF. The cumulative overall survival (OS) rate was lower in the patients with ACLF than in those without (P<0.001), and patients with higher ACLF grades had a lower OS rate (P<0.001). The chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score was identified as a significant prognostic factor in patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding (hazard ratio [HR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-1.50; P<0.001), even in ACLF patients with variceal bleeding (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.19-1.46, P<0.001). Concerning the prediction of the mortality risk at 28- and 90-day using CLIF-SOFA scores, c-statistics were 0.895 (95% CI, 0.829-0.962) and 0.897 (95% CI, 0.842-0.951), respectively, and the optimal cut-off values were 6.5 and 6.5, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In cirrhotic patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding, the prognosis was poor when accompanied by ACLF, especially depending upon CLIF-SOFA score. CLIF-SOFA model well predicted the 28-day or 90-day mortality for cirrhotic patients who experienced variceal bleeding.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: definition, prognosis and management

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a recently described entity in chronic liver disease defined by acute hepatic decompensation, organ failure and a high risk of short-term mortality (usually less than 4 weeks). This condition is distinct from acute liver failure and stable progression of cirrhosis in numerous ways, including triggering precipitant factors, systemic inflammation, rapid progression and a potential for recovery. While a clear definition of ACLF has been forwarded from a large European Consortium study, some heterogeneity remains in how patients present and the types of organ failure, depending on whether they are described in Asian or European studies. Active alcoholism, acute alcoholic hepatitis and infections are the most frequent precipitants for ACLF. Underpinning the pathophysiology of ACLF is a state of persistent inflammation and immune dysfunction, collectively driving a systematic inflammatory response syndrome and an increased propensity to sepsis. Prevention and early treatment of organ failure are key in influencing survival. Given increasing organ shortage and more marginal grafts, liver transplantation is a limited resource and emphasises the need for new therapies to improve ACLF outcomes. Recent data indicate that liver transplantation has encouraging outcomes even in patients with advanced ACLF if patients are carefully selected during the permissive window of clinical presentation. ACLF remains a significant challenge in the field of hepatology, with considerable research and resource being channelled to improve upon the definition, prognostication, treatment and unravelling of mechanistic drivers. This Review discusses updates in ACLF definition, prognosis and management.

Update on management of gastric varices

Gastric varices (GV) have different physiology and clinical characteristics compared to oesophageal varices (OV). There is little information about the management of GV. Most part of the recommendations is extrapolated from studies where the majority of participants had OV. Thus, most recommendations lack of strong evidence. This is a comprehensive review on all aspects of management of GV, i.e., primary, secondary prophylaxis and management of acute bleeding. The papers on which international societies’ recommendations are based are scrutinised in this review and areas of research are identified.

Safety of endoscopic N-Butyl-2 Cyanoacrylate injection for the treatment of bleeding gastric varices in children

Objective:

To determine the safety and efficacy of N-butyl 2-cyanoacrylate in bleeding gastric varices in children.

Methods:

This retrospective observational study was conducted in the Department of Gastroenterology and Pediatric Surgery in Liaquat National Hospital Karachi between January 2010 and January 2017. Gastric fundal varices were obliterated in pediatric population with single shot of N-butyl-2 Cyanoacrylate 0.50ml diluted with 0.50ml of Lipoidal with use of forward-viewing video endoscope with 22-gauge needle. The primary outcome was primary hemostasis, Secondary outcome was complications, re-bleeding and mortality.

Results:

Thirty patients was included in the study, 18(60%) were male with mean age of 7.12± 2.9 years. Non cirrhotic portal hypertension was the most common etiology in 15 (50%) patients, followed by liver cirrhosis secondary to hepatitis B and D co-infection in 6(20%) patients. Primary hemostasis was achieved in 29 (96.7%), while 3(10%) patients developed re-bleeding after 48 hours, and hemostasis was achieved after second session of endoscopic obliteration. Abdominal pain and fever developed in 3(10%) patients which was managed conservatively. Mortality was observed in 1(3%) of cases due to sepsis after shunt surgery.

Conclusion:

Endoscopic fundal varix obliteration with N Butyl-2 cyanoacrylate was safe and effective in treatment of gastric variceal hemorrhage in children.

Scoring systems for prediction of mortality in decompensated liver cirrhosis: A meta-analysis of test accuracy

AIM

To compare the accuracy of the scoring systems Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (MELD), MELD-Na, and MELD to Serum Sodium ratio (MESO) to predict the mortality in decompensated liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

The PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Ovid databases were systematically searched from inception to September 2018 for relevant articles, and we evaluated the quality of the included studies. The accuracy of scoring systems was analyzed with Stata 12 and MetaDiSc 1.4.

RESULTS

Sixteen studies involving 2337 patients were included. The pooled areas under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, and MESO to predict mortality were 0.81, 0.78, 0.85, and 0.86, respectively. Within 3 mo, the AUROCs of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na in predicting mortality were 0.78, 0.76, and 0.89, respectively. The AUROCs of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na at 3 mo were 0.86, 0.78, and 0.86, respectively. The AUROCs of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na at 6 mo were 0.91, 0.83, and 0.90, respectively. The AUROCs of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na at 12 mo were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.84, respectively. In cirrhotic patients with bleeding, the AUROCs of CTP and MELD were 0.76 and 0.88, respectively.

CONCLUSION

MESO has the highest AUROC in all assessed scoring systems. Considering the different time points, MELD-Na has good accuracy in predicting the mortality of decompensated liver cirrhosis. Compared to CTP, MELD is better in predicting variceal bleeding.

Acute kidney injury predicts mortality in cirrhotic patients with gastric variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The International Club of Ascites (ICA) recently proposed a new definition of acute kidney injury (AKI) in cirrhotic patients. The study evaluated the ICA-AKI criteria and their association with the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with gastric variceal bleeding (GVB).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using prospective database of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with the first presentation of acute GVB at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from April 2007 to December 2010 was performed to evaluate the development of AKI. The study used Cox proportional hazards model to examine the association of ICA-AKI criteria and mortality.

RESULTS

Of 113 patients, 46 (41%) fulfilled the ICA-AKI criteria and most (70%) initially had stage 1 AKI. Child-Pugh score, systemic blood pressure at admission, and number of blood units transfused before endoscopy were independent predictors of AKI. Among patients with AKI, 30% progressed to higher stages with more advanced liver disease, lower serum sodium, more units of blood transfusion, higher frequency of infection, and higher serum creatinine levels at diagnosis of AKI. The 6-week mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with AKI than in patients without AKI (37% vs 3%, P < 0.001), and AKI stages were independent predictors of 3-month survival (93% in patients without AKI, 73% in stage 1, and 30% in stages 2 and 3, P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of AKI as defined by the ICA criteria is common in cirrhotic patients with acute GVB. The presence of AKI was associated with much higher 6-week mortality, and the stages of AKI further predicted 3-month survival.

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.