Prognosis Predicting Score for Endovascular Treatment of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Risk Modeling Study for Individual Elderly Patients

The role of previous medical history and secondary complications for the outcome of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in elderly patients

BACKGROUND

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) presents a devastating diagnosis for elderly individuals, resulting in high morbidity and mortality rates. The aim of the study was to analyze the impact of medical history and complications during SAH on the outcome of elderly patients.

METHODS

Consecutive SAH cases aged ≥ 65 years old treated in our hospital between 01/2003 and 06/2016 were included (n = 218). Data on comorbidities, previous medication, initial severity, secondary complications, and the outcome were collected. Study endpoints were occurrence of cerebral infarcts, in-hospital mortality, and unfavorable outcome at 6 months after SAH.

RESULTS

Cerebral infarcts were documented in 111 (51.2 % ) individuals. Multivariate analysis showed that angiographic vasospasm caused an increase (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.11, p = 0.022) in the risk of infarction, whereas aspirin treatment decreased (aOR = 0.25, p = 0.001) the risk of infarction. In turn, increasing age (aOR = 1.11, p = 0.002), intracranial hypertension (>20 mmHg, aOR = 3.32, p = 0.006) and acute kidney failure (aOR = 6.65, p = 0.035) during SAH were independently related to the risk of in-hospital mortality (n = 50; 22.9 % ). Finally, patients' age (aOR = 1.09, p = 0.022), high initial SAH burden (WFNS ≥ 4: aOR = 7.5, p < 0.0001; intraventricular hemorrhage: aOR = 4.38, p = 0.007), aneurysm clipping (aOR = 4.07, p = 0.018), and intracranial hypertension during SAH (aOR = 4.08, p = 0.006) were independent predictors of unfavorable outcome (n = 106/192; 55.5 % ). Previous medical history showed no negative impact on the severity, course and outcome of SAH.

CONCLUSION

About half of elderly SAH patients face poor outcomes after aneurysm securing. The initial severity of and complications during SAH are the major contributors to poor treatment results. Our findings might help to optimize the treatment strategies.

Preoperative scale proposal based on clinical outcome for elderly patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms undergoing microsurgery

INTRODUCTION

Life expectancy in individuals has increased in recent years. There is no consensus in the literature on the best treatment for a ruptured aneurysm in the elderly (> 60 years), but some places only have microsurgery as a therapeutic strategy. This work aims to develop a prognostic scale for ruptured intracranial aneurysms in the elderly.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Two thousand five hundred thirty patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage were retrospectively evaluated in the last ten years, and 550 of them were elderly. We developed a prognostic scale from the analysis of medical records, clinical and tomographic features that had statistical significance. Glasgow Coma Outcome (GOS) was the outcome of interest and p value < 0,05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Five hundred fifty patients were evaluated, and the comorbidities that were independent variables for poor prognosis were smoking and arterial hypertension; clinical variables were Hunt-Hess, modified Rankin and Glasgow Coma Scale; tomographic was Fisher scale. Poor outcome was defined as GOS ≤ 3. Poor surgical outcomes were more remarkable in the high-risk factor categories, being 6.41 times higher among individuals who had 3 to 4 risk factors and 8.80 times higher among individuals with 5 to 6 risk factors.

CONCLUSION

In some vascular neurosurgery services worldwide, microsurgery is the only therapeutic option. This scale aimed at the elderly patient individualizes the treatment and can predict the clinical outcome in ruptured intracranial aneurysms.

A novel visual dynamic nomogram to online predict the risk of unfavorable outcome in elderly aSAH patients after endovascular coiling: A retrospective study

Background

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Dynamic nomogram to predict the prognosis of elderly aSAH patients after endovascular coiling has not been reported. Thus, we aimed to develop a clinically useful dynamic nomogram to predict the risk of 6-month unfavorable outcome in elderly aSAH patients after endovascular coiling.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study including 209 elderly patients admitted to the People's Hospital of Hunan Province for aSAH from January 2016 to June 2021. The main outcome measure was 6-month unfavorable outcome (mRS ≥ 3). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis and forwarded stepwise regression to select variables to generate the nomogram. We assessed the discriminative performance using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic and the risk prediction model's calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The decision curve analysis (DCA) and the clinical impact curve (CIC) were used to measure the clinical utility of the nomogram.

Results

The cohort's median age was 70 (interquartile range: 68-74) years and 133 (36.4%) had unfavorable outcomes. Age, using a ventilator, white blood cell count, and complicated with cerebral infarction were predictors of 6-month unfavorable outcome. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.882 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration of the nomogram (p = 0.3717). Besides, the excellent clinical utility and applicability of the nomogram had been indicated by DCA and CIC. The eventual value of unfavorable outcome risk could be calculated through the dynamic nomogram.

Conclusion

This study is the first visual dynamic online nomogram that accurately predicts the risk of 6-month unfavorable outcome in elderly aSAH patients after endovascular coiling. Clinicians can effectively improve interventions by taking targeted interventions based on the scores of different items on the nomogram for each variable.

An accurate prognostic prediction for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage dedicated to patients after endovascular treatment

Background

Endovascular treatment for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) has high fatality and permanent disability rates. It remains unclear how the prognosis is determined by the complex interaction between clinical severity and aneurysm characteristics.

Objective

This study aimed to design an accurate prognostic prediction model for aSAH patients after endovascular treatment and elucidate the interaction between clinical severity and aneurysm characteristics.

Methods

We used a clinically homogeneous data set with 1029 aSAH patients who received endovascular treatment to develop prognostic models. Aneurysm characteristics were measured by variables, such as aneurysm size, neck size, and dome-to-neck ratio, while clinical severity on admission was measured by both comorbidities and neurological condition. In total, 18 clinical variables were used for prognostic prediction. Considering the imbalance between the favorable and the poor outcomes in this clinical population, both ensemble learning and deep reinforcement learning approaches were used for prediction.

Results

The random forest (RF) model was selected as the best approach for the prognostic prediction for all patients and also for patients with good-grade aSAH. Using an independent test data set, the model made accurate predictions (AUC = 0.869 ± 0.036, sensitivity = 0.709 ± 0.087, specificity = 0.805 ± 0.034) with the clinical severity on admission as a leading contributor to the prediction. For patients with good-grade aSAH, the RF model performed the best (AUC = 0.805 ± 0.034, sensitivity = 0.620 ± 0.172, specificity = 0.696 ± 0.043) with aneurysm characteristics as leading contributors. The classic scoring systems failed in this patient group (AUC < 0.600; sensitivity = 0.000, specificity = 1.000).

Conclusion

The proposed prognostic prediction model outperformed the classic scoring systems for patients with aSAH after endovascular treatment, especially when the classic scoring systems failed to make any informative prediction for patients with good-grade aSAH, who constitute the majority group (79%) of this clinical population.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Scoring System for In-hospital Death in Patients With Intra-Abdominal Infection: A Single-Center 10-Year Retrospective Study

Objective: To develop and validate a scoring system to predict the risk of in-hospital death in patients with intra-abdominal infection (IAI).

Materials and Methods: Patients with IAI (n = 417) treated at our hospital between June 2010 and May 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Risk factors for in-hospital death were identified by logistic regression analysis. The regression coefficients of each risk factor were re-assigned using the mathematical transformation principle to establish a convenient predictive scoring system. The scoring system was internally validated by bootstrapping sample method.

Results: Fifty-three (53/417, 12.7%) patients died during hospitalization. On logistic regression analysis, high APACHE II score (P = 0.012), pneumonia (P = 0.002), abdominal surgery (P = 0.001), hypoproteinemia (P = 0.025), and chronic renal insufficiency (P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for in-hospital death. On receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the composite index combining these five risk factors showed a 62.3% sensitivity and 80.2% specificity for predicting in-hospital death (area under the curve: 0.778; 95% confidence interval: 0.711–0.845, P < 0.001). The predictive ability of the composite index was better than that of each independent risk factor. A scoring system (0–14 points) was established by re-assigning each risk factor based on the logistic regression coefficient: APACHE II score (10–15 score, 1 point; >15 score, 4 points); pneumonia (2 points), abdominal surgery (2 points), hypoproteinemia (2 points), and chronic renal insufficiency (4 points). Internal validation by 1,000 bootstrapping sample showed relatively high discriminative ability of the scoring system (C-index = 0.756, 95% confidence interval: 0.753–0.758).

Conclusions: The predictive scoring system based on APACHE II score, pneumonia, abdominal surgery, hypoproteinemia, and chronic renal insufficiency can help predict the risk of in-hospital death in patients with IAI.

Increased blood pressure variability predicts poor outcomes from endovascular treatment for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Predictors of outcomes following endovascular treatment (ET) for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) are not well-defined. Identifying them would be beneficial in determining which patients might benefit from ET.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the predictive factors for poor outcomes following ET for aSAH.

METHODS

120 patients with ruptured cerebral aneurysms underwent endovascular embolization between January 2017 and December 2018. Blood pressure variability was examined using the standard deviation of the 24-hour systolic blood pressure (24hSSD) and 24-hour diastolic blood pressure (24hDSD). Predictors were identified through univariate and multivariate regression analysis. All patients were followed up for three months.

RESULTS

At follow-up, 86 patients (71.7%) had good outcomes and 34 (28.3%) had poor outcomes. Patients with poor outcomes had significantly higher 24hSSD than those with good outcomes (19.3 ± 5.5 vs 14.1 ± 4.8 mmHg; P < 0.001). The 24hDSD did not differ significantly between patients with good outcomes and those with poor outcomes (9.5 ± 2.3 vs 9.9 ± 3.5 mmHg; P = 0.464). The following were significant risk factors for poor outcomes after endovascular embolization: age ≥ 65 years (odds ratio [OR] = 23.0; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.0-175.9; P = 0.002); Hunt-Hess grade 3-4 (OR = 6.8; 95% CI: 1.1-33.7; P = 0.039); Fisher grade 3-4 (OR = 47.1; 95% CI: 3.8-586.5; P = 0.003); postoperative complications (OR = 6.1; 95% CI: 1.1-34.8; P = 0.042); and 24hSSD ≥ 15 mmHg (OR = 14.9; 95% CI: 4.0-55.2; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Elevated 24hSSD is a possibly treatable predictive factor for poor outcomes after ET for aSAH.

Development and Clinical Translation of a Perioperative Nomogram Incorporating Free Fatty Acids to Predict Poor Outcome of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Following Endovascular Treatment

Objective: A reliable prediction of clinical outcome is important for clinicians to set appropriate medical strategies in treating patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). In this study, we aim to establish a perioperative nomogram involving serum lipid signatures for predicting poor outcomes at 3 months in patients with aSAH following endovascular therapy.

Methods: Data of patients with aSAH receiving endovascular therapy were collected. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to screen independent predictors related to unfavorable outcomes defined by the modified Rankin Scale (mFS) ≥3. A novel nomogram based on these significant features was conducted. The clinical application of this nomogram was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve.

Results: A total number of patients included in this study were 213 (average age 58.9 years, 65.7% female), representing a poor 3-month outcome rate of 48.8%. Free fatty acid (FFA) levels on admission were efficient in predicting poor outcomes compared with other contents in serum lipids. Univariable and multivariable analyses revealed advanced age (P = 0.034), poor Hunt Hess (HH) (odds ratio, OR = 3.7, P < 0.001) and mFS (OR = 6.0, P < 0.001), aneurysms in the posterior circulation (OR = 4.4, P = 0.019), and higher FFA levels on admission (OR = 3.1, P = 0.021) were negative independent predictors of poor 3 months outcome. A novel nomogram composed of these significant features presented a concordance index (C-index) of 0.831 while the practical benefit was validated by DCA and clinical impact curve. An online calculator based on R programming promoted the clinical application of this nomogram.

Conclusion: Nomogram involving age, HH grade, mFS, aneurysm location, and serum FFA levels was sufficient to provide an individualized prediction of 3-month poor outcome for each patient with aSAH who underwent endovascular therapy.

An evaluation of the SAFIRE grading scale as a predictor of long-term outcomes for patients in the Barrow Ruptured Aneurysm Trial

OBJECTIVE

The SAFIRE grading scale is a novel, computable scale that predicts the outcome of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) patients in acute follow-up. However, this scale also may have prognostic significance in long-term follow-up and help guide further management.

METHODS

The records of all patients enrolled in the Barrow Ruptured Aneurysm Trial (BRAT) were retrospectively reviewed, and the patients were assigned SAFIRE grades. Outcomes at 1 year and 6 years post-aSAH were analyzed for each SAFIRE grade level, with a poor outcome defined as a modified Rankin Scale score > 2. Univariate analysis was performed for patients with a high SAFIRE grade (IV or V) for odds of poor outcome at the 1- and 6-year follow-ups.

RESULTS

A total of 405 patients with confirmed aSAH enrolled in the BRAT were analyzed; 357 patients had 1-year follow-up, and 333 patients had 6-year follow-up data available. Generally, as the SAFIRE grade increased, so did the proportion of patients with poor outcomes. At the 1-year follow-up, 18% (17/93) of grade I patients, 22% (20/92) of grade II patients, 32% (26/80) of grade III patients, 43% (38/88) of grade IV patients, and 75% (3/4) of grade V patients were found to have poor outcomes. At the 6-year follow-up, 29% (23/79) of grade I patients, 24% (21/89) of grade II patients, 38% (29/77) of grade III patients, 60% (50/84) of grade IV patients, and 100% (4/4) of grade V patients were found to have poor outcomes. Univariate analysis showed that a SAFIRE grade of IV or V was associated with a significantly increased risk of a poor outcome at both the 1-year (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.5-4.2; p < 0.001) and 6-year (OR 3.7, 95% CI 2.2-6.2; p < 0.001) follow-ups.

CONCLUSIONS

High SAFIRE grades are associated with an increased risk of a poor recovery at late follow-up.

Risk Factors for Prognosis in Elderly Patients with Severe Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Retrospective Study

INTRODUCTION

To investigate the risk factors affecting the prognosis of elderly patients with severe aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).

METHODS

Forty-nine elderly patients with severe aSAH (Hunt and Hess [H-H] grade III-V) were enrolled in this retrospective study. Follow-up was conducted with patients 30 days after discharge using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS), on which scores of 1-3 indicated a poor outcome (n = 32) and scores of 4-5 indicated a good outcome (n = 17). The patients' general information (gender, age, presence of hypertension, diabetes, or coronary atherosclerotic heart disease, location of ruptured aneurysm, and H-H grade) and complications (cerebral vasospasm, new cerebral infarction, pulmonary infection, liver dysfunction, hypoalbuminemia, anemia, and electrolyte disturbance) were recorded, and comparison between the different outcome groups was undertaken. Univariate analysis was used to analyze the factors associated with different outcomes, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors that lead to poor outcomes.

RESULTS

The incidence of all complications increased in patients with higher H-H grades, but without statistical significance (P > 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the two outcome (poor and good) groups in general information and complications (all P > 0.05), with the exception of different H-H grades (P < 0.05). H-H grade was a statistically significant risk factor for poor outcomes in elderly patients with severe aSAH (OR 11.627, 95% CI 2.475-55.556, P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

H-H grade is an independent factor related to the prognosis of elderly patients with severe aSAH.

Trends in Incidence and Mortality by Hospital Teaching Status and Location in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVES

Few studies have examined the impact of teaching status and location on outcomes in subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The objective of the present study was to compare mortality and functional outcomes among urban teaching, urban nonteaching, and rural centers for hospitalizations with SAH.

METHODS

The National Inpatient Sample for years 2003-2016 was queried for hospitalizations with aneurysmal SAH from 2003 to 2017. Cohorts treated at urban teaching, urban nonteaching, and rural centers were compared with the urban teaching center cohort acting as the reference. The National Inpatient Sample Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Outcome Measure, a validated measure of SAH functional outcome, was used as a coprimary outcome with mortality. Multivariable models adjusted for age, sex, NIH-SSS score, hypertension, and hospital bed size. Trends in SAH mortality rates were calculated.

RESULTS

There were 379,716 SAH hospitalizations at urban teaching centers, 105,638 at urban nonteaching centers, and 17,165 at rural centers. Adjusted mortality rates for urban teaching centers were lower than urban nonteaching (21.90% vs. 25.00%, P < 0.0001) and rural (21.90% vs. 30.90%, P < 0.0001) centers. While urban teaching (24.74% to 21.22%) and urban nonteaching (24.78% to 23.68%) had decreases in mortality rates over the study period, rural hospitals showed increased mortality rates (25.67% to 33.38%).

CONCLUSIONS

Rural and urban nonteaching centers have higher rates of mortality from SAH than urban teaching centers. Further study is necessary to understand drivers of these differences.

Assessing Contribution of Higher Order Clinical Risk Factors to Prediction of Outcome in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Patients

The goal of this study was to investigate the application of machine learning models capable of capturing multiplica tive and temporal clinical risk factors for outcome prediction inpatients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). We examined a cohort of 575 aSAH patients from Emory Healthcare, identified via digital subtraction angiog- raphy. The outcome measure was the modified Ranking Scale (mRS) after 90 days. Predictions were performed with longitudinal clinical and imaging risk factors as inputs into a regularized Logistic Regression, a feedforward Neural Network and a multivariate time-series prediction model known as the long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture. Through extraction of higher-order risk factors, the LSTM model achieved an AUC of 0.89 eight days into hospitaliza tion, outperforming other techniques. Our preliminary findings indicate the proposed model has the potential to aid treatment decisions and effective imaging resource utilization in high-risk patients by providing actionable predictions prior to the development of neurological deterioration.

The Prognostic Significance of a Cast Fourth Ventricle in Ruptured Aneurysm Patients With Intraventricular Hemorrhage in the Barrow Ruptured Aneurysm Trial (BRAT)

BACKGROUND

Ruptured aneurysms causing intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) are associated with high morbidity. The presence of blood that completely fills the fourth ventricle (cast fourth ventricle, CFV) is thought to be particularly ominous, but studies documenting the outcome of such cases are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the outcomes of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and CFV.

METHODS

We reviewed 406 patients enrolled in the Barrow Ruptured Aneurysm Trial (BRAT, NCT01593267, clinicaltrials.gov); 238 patients with aSAH and IVH were identified, and imaging was reviewed for the presence of CFV. Outcome was evaluated at the 1-yr follow-up. A poor outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score >2.

RESULTS

CFV was identified in 25 patients. Admission Glasgow Coma Score was lower in CFV patients, 7.8 versus 11.5 (P < .001). At discharge and the 1-yr follow-up, patients with CFV had a greater risk of a poor outcome (P < .001 and P = .002, respectively). In a subgroup analysis of 79 patients with IVH and initial Glasgow Coma Score ≤ 8, almost 50% of the patients with IVH but without CFV had made a good recovery versus 7% of patients with CFV (odds ratio [OR] 15, P = .002). On multivariate analysis, CFV was a greater predictor of a poor prognosis at 1 yr post-aSAH than Hunt and Hess grade >3 (6.4 OR vs 2.9 OR [P < .001], respectively).

CONCLUSION

The presence of CFV is a predictor of poor outcome in patients with aSAH. When compared to other patients with IVH and aSAH, CFV is a stronger predictor of a poor outcome than a poor Hunt and Hess Grade.

Development and Validation of the Procedure-Related Neurologic Complications Risk Score for Elderly Patients with Ruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Undergoing Endovascular Treatment

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to develop and validate a procedure-related neurologic complications (PNC) risk score for individual elderly patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms undergoing endovascular treatment (EVT).

METHODS

Preoperatively collected data, including clinical, lesion, and procedure characteristics of consecutive elderly patients (≥60 years), were used to develop a PNC risk predictive score based on the coefficients (β) of a multivariable logistic regression analysis. The PNC included intraprocedural rupture, thromboembolic events, and rebleeding within 30 days after EVT.

RESULTS

Overall, 520 elderly patients who underwent EVT were enrolled. At 30 days, the PNC rate was 13.08%. Six risk factors were independently associated with PNC and comprised the PNC score (PNC score, 0-16 points): hypertension (2 points), Hunt-Hess grade ≥4 (3 points), Fisher grade ≥3 (2 points), wide-necked aneurysm (2 points), with a bleb on the aneurysm sac (3 points), and aneurysm size (3-10 mm, 1 point; <3 mm, 4 points). The PNC score model predicted the risk of PNC at a sensitivity of 63.22% and specificity of 84.79%. Moreover, the PNC score demonstrated significant discrimination (area under curve, 0.799; P < 0.001) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.319). Excellent prediction, discrimination, and calibration properties were reproduced by the internal validation group with bootstrapping techniques.

CONCLUSIONS

The PNC score can be an easily applicable tool for predicting the risk of PNC for individual elderly patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms undergoing EVT. Our study provides large case-based evidence supporting the integration of individual clinical, lesion, and procedure characteristics to predict PNC risk.