Development and validation of a mortality risk model for pediatric sepsis

Hierarchical Capability in Distinguishing Severities of Sepsis via Serum Lactate: A Network Meta-Analysis

Background: Blood lactate is a potentially useful biomarker to predict the mortality and severity of sepsis. The purpose of this study is to systematically review the ability of lactate to predict hierarchical sepsis clinical outcomes and distinguish sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock. Methods: We conducted an exhaustive search of the PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library databases for studies published before 1 October 2022. Inclusion criteria mandated the presence of case-control, cohort studies and randomized controlled trials that established the association between before-treatment blood lactate levels and the mortality of individuals with sepsis, severe sepsis or septic shock. Data was analyzed using STATA Version 16.0. Results: A total of 127 studies, encompassing 107,445 patients, were ultimately incorporated into our analysis. Meta-analysis of blood lactate levels at varying thresholds revealed a statistically significant elevation in blood lactate levels predicting mortality (OR = 1.57, 95% CI 1.48-1.65, I2 = 92.8%, p < 0.00001). Blood lactate levels were significantly higher in non-survivors compared to survivors in sepsis patients (SMD = 0.77, 95% CI 0.74-0.79, I2 = 83.7%, p = 0.000). The prognostic utility of blood lactate in sepsis mortality was validated through hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) analysis, yielding an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% CI 0.68-0.76), accompanied by a summary sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CI 0.59-0.7) and a summary specificity of 0.7 (95% CI 0.64-0.75). Unfortunately, the network meta-analysis could not identify any significant differences in average blood lactate values' assessments among sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock patients. Conclusions: This meta-analysis demonstrated that high-level blood lactate was associated with a higher risk of sepsis mortality. Lactate has a relatively accurate predictive ability for the mortality risk of sepsis. However, the network analysis found that the levels of blood lactate were not effective in distinguishing between patients with sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock.

Machine learning for the prediction of sepsis-related death: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Sepsis is accompanied by a considerably high risk of mortality in the short term, despite the availability of recommended mortality risk assessment tools. However, these risk assessment tools seem to have limited predictive value. With the gradual integration of machine learning into clinical practice, some researchers have attempted to employ machine learning for early mortality risk prediction in sepsis patients. Nevertheless, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the construction of predictive variables using machine learning and the value of various machine learning methods. Thus, we carried out this systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the predictive value of machine learning for sepsis-related death at different time points.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases were searched until August 9th, 2022. The risk of bias in predictive models was assessed using the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). We also performed subgroup analysis according to time of death and type of model and summarized current predictive variables used to construct models for sepsis death prediction.

RESULTS

Fifty original studies were included, covering 104 models. The combined Concordance index (C-index), sensitivity, and specificity of machine learning models were 0.799, 0.81, and 0.80 in the training set, and 0.774, 0.71, and 0.68 in the validation set, respectively. Machine learning outperformed conventional clinical scoring tools and showed excellent C-index, sensitivity, and specificity in different subgroups. Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) are the preferred machine learning models because they showed more favorable accuracy with similar modeling variables. This study found that lactate was the most frequent predictor but was seriously ignored by current clinical scoring tools.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning methods demonstrate relatively favorable accuracy in predicting the mortality risk in sepsis patients. Given the limitations in accuracy and applicability of existing prediction scoring systems, there is an opportunity to explore updates based on existing machine learning approaches. Specifically, it is essential to develop or update more suitable mortality risk assessment tools based on the specific contexts of use, such as emergency departments, general wards, and intensive care units.

Presepsin: Hope in the Quest for the Holy Grail

How to cite this article: Samprathi A, Samprathi M, Reddy M. Presepsin: Hope in the Quest for the Holy Grail. Indian J Crit Care Med 2022;26(6):664–666.

Non-traumatic coma in young children in Benin: are viral and bacterial infections gaining ground on cerebral malaria?

Background

While malaria morbidity and mortality have declined since 2000, viral central nervous system infections appear to be an important, underestimated cause of coma in malaria-endemic Eastern Africa. We aimed to describe the etiology of non-traumatic comas in young children in Benin, as well as their management and early outcomes, and to identify factors associated with death.

Methods

From March to November 2018, we enrolled all HIV-negative children aged between 2 and 6 years, with a Blantyre Coma Score ≤ 2, in this prospective observational study. Children were screened for malaria severity signs and assessed using a systematic diagnostic protocol, including blood cultures, malaria diagnostics, and cerebrospinal fluid analysis using multiplex PCR. To determine factors associated with death, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed.

Results

From 3244 admissions, 84 children were included: malaria was diagnosed in 78, eight of whom had a viral or bacterial co-infection. Six children had a non-malarial infection or no identified cause. The mortality rate was 29.8% (25/84), with 20 children dying in the first 24 h. Co-infected children appeared to have a poorer prognosis. Of the 76 children who consulted a healthcare professional before admission, only 5 were prescribed adequate antimalarial oral therapy. Predictors of early death were jaundice or increased bilirubin [odd ratio (OR)= 8.6; 95% confidential interval (CI): 2.03–36.1] and lactate > 5 mmol/L (OR = 5.1; 95% CI: 1.49–17.30). Antibiotic use before admission (OR = 0.1; 95% CI: 0.02–0.85) and vaccination against yellow fever (OR = 0.2, 95% CI: 0.05–0.79) protected against mortality.

Conclusions

Infections were found in all children who died, and cerebral malaria was by far the most common cause of non-traumatic coma. Missed opportunities to receive early effective antimalarial treatment were common. Other central nervous system infections must be considered in their management. Some factors that proved to be protective against early death were unexpected.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-00956-2.

Comparison between hospital- and community-acquired septic shock in children: a single-center retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

We explored the differences in baseline characteristics, pathogens, complications, outcomes, and risk factors between children with hospital-acquired septic shock (HASS) and community-acquired septic shock (CASS) in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU).

METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled children with septic shock at the PICU of Beijing Children's Hospital from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2019. The patients were followed up until 28 days after shock or death and were divided into the HASS and CASS group. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 298 children were enrolled. Among them, 65.9% (n = 91) of HASS patients had hematologic/oncologic diseases, mainly with Gram-negative bacterial bloodstream infections (47.3%). Additionally, 67.7% (n = 207) of CASS patients had no obvious underlying disease, and most experienced Gram-positive bacterial infections (30.9%) of the respiratory or central nervous system. The 28-day mortality was 62.6% and 32.7% in the HASS and CASS groups, respectively (P < 0.001). Platelet [odds ratio (OR) = 0.996, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.992-1.000, P = 0.028], positive pathogen detection (OR = 3.557, 95% CI = 1.307-9.684, P = 0.013), and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (OR = 10.953, 95% CI = 1.974-60.775, P = 0.006) were risk factors for 28-day mortality in HASS patients. Lactate (OR = 1.104, 95% CI = 1.022-1.192, P = 0.012) and mechanical ventilation (OR = 8.114, 95% CI = 1.806-36.465, P = 0.006) were risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients with CASS.

CONCLUSIONS

The underlying diseases, pathogens, complications, prognosis, and mortality rates varied widely between the HASS and CASS groups. The predictors of 28-day mortality were different between HASS and CASS pediatric patients with septic shock.

Prognostic factors and models to predict pediatric sepsis mortality: A scoping review

Introduction

Several scoring systems are available to assess the severity of sepsis in pediatric patients in diverse settings worldwide. This study investigates the quality and applicability of predictive models for determining pediatric sepsis mortality, especially in acute care and limited-resource settings.

Data sources

Mortality prediction factors and models were searched in four databases using the following criteria: developed for pediatric health care, especially in acute settings, and with mortality as an outcome.

Study selection

Two or more reviewers performed the study selection to ensure no bias occurred. Any disagreements were solved by consensus or by the decision of a third reviewer.

Data extraction

The authors extracted the results and mapped the selected studies qualitatively to describe the prognostic properties of the risk factors and models proposed in the study.

Data synthesis

The final analysis included 28 mortality prediction models. Their characteristics, analysis, and performance measures were summarized. Performance was described in terms of calibration and discrimination, including assessing for risk of bias and applicability. A modified version of the PRISM-III score based on physiologic criteria (PRISM-III-APS) increased its predictive value to 0.85-0.95. The vasoactive-inotropic score at 12 h had a strong independent association with death. Albumin had an excellent predictive value when combined with other variables. Lactate, a biomarker widely measured in patients with sepsis, was highly associated with mortality. The bioimpedance phase angle was not considered applicable in our setting. Measurement using more straightforward methods, such as mid-upper arm circumference, was feasible in numerous health care facilities.

Conclusion

Leveraging prognostic models to predict mortality among pediatric patients with sepsis remains an important and well-recognized area of study. While much validation and development work remains to be done, available prognostic models could aid clinicians at the bedside of children with sepsis. Furthermore, mortality prediction models are essential and valuable tools for assessing the quality of care provided to critically ill pediatric patients.

Criteria for Pediatric Sepsis-A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis by the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce

OBJECTIVE

To determine the associations of demographic, clinical, laboratory, organ dysfunction, and illness severity variable values with: 1) sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock in children with infection and 2) multiple organ dysfunction or death in children with sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from January 1, 2004, and November 16, 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Case-control studies, cohort studies, and randomized controlled trials in children greater than or equal to 37-week-old postconception to 18 years with suspected or confirmed infection, which included the terms "sepsis," "septicemia," or "septic shock" in the title or abstract.

DATA EXTRACTION

Study characteristics, patient demographics, clinical signs or interventions, laboratory values, organ dysfunction measures, and illness severity scores were extracted from eligible articles. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed.

DATA SYNTHESIS

One hundred and six studies met eligibility criteria of which 81 were included in the meta-analysis. Sixteen studies (9,629 patients) provided data for the sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock outcome and 71 studies (154,674 patients) for the mortality outcome. In children with infection, decreased level of consciousness and higher Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores were associated with sepsis/severe sepsis. In children with sepsis/severe sepsis/septic shock, chronic conditions, oncologic diagnosis, use of vasoactive/inotropic agents, mechanical ventilation, serum lactate, platelet count, fibrinogen, procalcitonin, multi-organ dysfunction syndrome, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction score, Pediatric Index of Mortality-3, and Pediatric Risk of Mortality score each demonstrated significant and consistent associations with mortality. Pooled mortality rates varied among high-, upper middle-, and lower middle-income countries for patients with sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Strong associations of several markers of organ dysfunction with the outcomes of interest among infected and septic children support their inclusion in the data validation phase of the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce.

Biomarkers in pediatric sepsis: a review of recent literature

Sepsis remains the leading cause of death in infants and children worldwide. Prompt diagnosis and monitoring of infection is pivotal to guide therapy and optimize outcomes. No single biomarker has so far been identified to accurately diagnose sepsis, monitor response and predict severity. We aimed to assess existing evidence of available sepsis biomarkers, and their utility in pediatric population. C-reactive protein and procalcitonin remain the most extensively evaluated and used biomarkers. However, biomarkers related to endothelial damage, vasodilation, oxidative stress, cytokines/chemokines and cell bioproducts have also been identified, often with regard to the site of infection and etiologic pathogen; still, with controversial utility. A multi-biomarker model driven by genomic tools could establish a personalized approach in future disease management.

Surviving sepsis campaign international guidelines for the management of septic shock and sepsis-associated organ dysfunction in children

OBJECTIVES

To develop evidence-based recommendations for clinicians caring for children (including infants, school-aged children, and adolescents) with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction.

DESIGN

A panel of 49 international experts, representing 12 international organizations, as well as three methodologists and three public members was convened. Panel members assembled at key international meetings (for those panel members attending the conference), and a stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in November 2018. A formal conflict-of-interest policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among the chairs, co-chairs, methodologists, and group heads, as well as within subgroups, served as an integral part of the guideline development process.

METHODS

The panel consisted of six subgroups: recognition and management of infection, hemodynamics and resuscitation, ventilation, endocrine and metabolic therapies, adjunctive therapies, and research priorities. We conducted a systematic review for each Population, Intervention, Control, and Outcomes question to identify the best available evidence, statistically summarized the evidence, and then assessed the quality of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. We used the evidence-to-decision framework to formulate recommendations as strong or weak, or as a best practice statement. In addition, "in our practice" statements were included when evidence was inconclusive to issue a recommendation, but the panel felt that some guidance based on practice patterns may be appropriate.

RESULTS

The panel provided 77 statements on the management and resuscitation of children with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction. Overall, six were strong recommendations, 49 were weak recommendations, and nine were best-practice statements. For 13 questions, no recommendations could be made; but, for 10 of these, "in our practice" statements were provided. In addition, 52 research priorities were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

A large cohort of international experts was able to achieve consensus regarding many recommendations for the best care of children with sepsis, acknowledging that most aspects of care had relatively low quality of evidence resulting in the frequent issuance of weak recommendations. Despite this challenge, these recommendations regarding the management of children with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction provide a foundation for consistent care to improve outcomes and inform future research.

Surviving Sepsis Campaign International Guidelines for the Management of Septic Shock and Sepsis-Associated Organ Dysfunction in Children

OBJECTIVES

To develop evidence-based recommendations for clinicians caring for children (including infants, school-aged children, and adolescents) with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction.

DESIGN

A panel of 49 international experts, representing 12 international organizations, as well as three methodologists and three public members was convened. Panel members assembled at key international meetings (for those panel members attending the conference), and a stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in November 2018. A formal conflict-of-interest policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among the chairs, co-chairs, methodologists, and group heads, as well as within subgroups, served as an integral part of the guideline development process.

METHODS

The panel consisted of six subgroups: recognition and management of infection, hemodynamics and resuscitation, ventilation, endocrine and metabolic therapies, adjunctive therapies, and research priorities. We conducted a systematic review for each Population, Intervention, Control, and Outcomes question to identify the best available evidence, statistically summarized the evidence, and then assessed the quality of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. We used the evidence-to-decision framework to formulate recommendations as strong or weak, or as a best practice statement. In addition, "in our practice" statements were included when evidence was inconclusive to issue a recommendation, but the panel felt that some guidance based on practice patterns may be appropriate.

RESULTS

The panel provided 77 statements on the management and resuscitation of children with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction. Overall, six were strong recommendations, 52 were weak recommendations, and nine were best-practice statements. For 13 questions, no recommendations could be made; but, for 10 of these, "in our practice" statements were provided. In addition, 49 research priorities were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

A large cohort of international experts was able to achieve consensus regarding many recommendations for the best care of children with sepsis, acknowledging that most aspects of care had relatively low quality of evidence resulting in the frequent issuance of weak recommendations. Despite this challenge, these recommendations regarding the management of children with septic shock and other sepsis-associated organ dysfunction provide a foundation for consistent care to improve outcomes and inform future research.

Application of regression model combined with computer technology in the construction of early warning model of sepsis infection in children

This paper uses computer technology combined with regression model to analyze the risk factors of children with sepsis, determine the relevant factors and establish a corresponding early warning model of sepsis, and then verify the clinical application value of the regression model. The paper collected severe infections and sepsis in children who came to our hospital from 2014 to 2018, including 129 patients with infection and 86 patients with sepsis. The general conditions, clinical symptoms, laboratory tests and other factors were used. Analysis, to identify the risk of infection development into sepsis, and use Logistic regression model combined with computer technology to construct an early warning model of sepsis. The experimental results show that early warning of sepsis is closely related to skin spots, platelets, procalcitonin, creatinine and international normalized ratio. The experiment demonstrates that the early warning model has higher sensitivity and specificity, and has higher accuracy for predicting whether infection develops into sepsis in advance, and has certain clinical value.

Infections and internal medicine patients: Could a comorbidity score predict in-hospital mortality?

Infectious diseases (ID) are frequently cause of internal medicine wards (IMW) admission. We aimed to evaluate risk factors for in-hospital mortality (IHM) in IMW patients with ID, and to test the usefulness of a comorbidity score (CS).This study included ID hospital admissions between January 2013, and December 2016, recorded in the database of the local hospital. ICD-9-CM codes were selected to identify infections, development of sepsis, and to calculate a CS.We analyzed 12,173 records, (age 64.8 ± 25.1 years, females 66.2%, sepsis 9.3%). Deceased subjects (1545, 12.7%) were older, had higher percentage of sepsis, pulmonary infections, and endocarditis. Mean value of CS was also significantly higher. At multivariate analysis, the odds ratio (OR) for sepsis (OR 5.961), endocarditis (OR 4.247), pulmonary infections (OR 1.905), other sites of infection (OR 1.671), and urinary tracts infections (OR 0.548), were independently associated with IHM. The CS (OR 1.070 per unit of increasing score), was independently associated with IHM as well. The calculated weighted risk, obtained by multiplying 1.070 for the mean score value in deceased patients, was 19.367. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that CS and development of sepsis were significant predictors for IHM (area under the curve, AUC: 0.724 and 0.670, respectively).Careful evaluation of comorbidity in internal medicine patients is nowadays matter of extreme importance in IMW patients hospitalized for ID, being IHM related to severity of disease, type and site of infection, and also to concomitant comorbidities. In these patients, a careful evaluation of CS should represent a fundamental step in the disease management.