Predicting the mortality in geriatric patients with dengue fever

Liver involvement in dengue: A systematic review

Liver involvement is an unusual yet frequently overlooked dengue complication. Pivotal for an efficient clinical management, the early diagnosis of dengue-associated liver involvement relies on an accurate description of its clinical and biological characteristics, its prognosis factors, its association with severe dengue and its clinical management. We conducted a systematic review by searching PubMed and Web of Science databases for original case reports, cohort and cross-sectional studies reporting the clinical and/or biological features of dengue-associated liver involvement. The study was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021262657). Of the 2552 articles identified, 167 were included. Dengue-associated liver involvement was characterised by clinical features including abdominal pain, hepatomegaly, jaundice, nausea/vomiting, and an echogenic liver exhibiting hepatocellular necrosis and minimal inflammation. Elevated Aspartate Aminotransferase and Alanine Aminotransferase but also elevated bilirubin, Alkaline Phosphatase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, increased International Normalised Ratio, creatinine and creatine kinase, lower albumin and prolonged prothrombin and activated partial thromboplastin time were prevalent in dengue-associated liver involvement. Cardiovascular and haematological systems were frequently affected, translating in a strong association with severe dengue. Liver involvement was more common in males and older adults. It was associated with dengue virus serotype-2 and secondary infections. Early paracetamol intake increased the risk of liver involvement, which clinical management was mostly conservative. In conclusion, this systematic review demonstrates that early monitoring of transaminases, clinical assessment, and ultrasound examination allow an efficient diagnosis of dengue-associated liver involvement, enabling the early identification and management of severe dengue.

Frailty in Older Adults with Dengue Fever

Background and objectives: Dengue is one of the most common epidemic infections around the world. Dengue infections in older adults are related to an atypical presentation and a high mortality. Frailty is associated with poor recovery from hospitalization due to infection. However, few studies describe frailty and functional decline after dengue infection. The current case series study aims to investigate the baseline frailty status, functional decline, and time to recovery in older adults after dengue infection. Method: We studied seven patients with post-dengue frailty who had been admitted to the geriatric ward in one tertiary medical center in Taiwan during the 2023 dengue fever outbreak. Result: The mean age was 82 years old. The clinical frailty scale worsened from a mean of 4.7 at baseline to 6.3 at dengue diagnosis. The mean Katz Index of independence in activities of daily living decreased from 10.6 at baseline to 4.7 with dengue, and it recovered to 6.7 one month after discharge. Conclusions: Our preliminary data suggest that there is indeed an increase in frailty in older adults due to dengue. Post-dengue frailty and functional decline might be profound and persistent. Acute geriatric care intervention rehabilitation for frailty after dengue may benefit this population.

Routine blood parameters of dengue infected children and adults. A meta-analysis

The World Health Organization (WHO) has revised dengue case classification in 2009 to better reflect the severity of the disease. However, there was no comprehensive meta-analysis of pooled routine blood parameters according to the age or the categories of the 2009 WHO classification. This study aimed to meta-analyze the routine blood parameters of dengue infected children and adults. Electronic search was performed with eligible articles included for review. Meta-analysis was conducted for six blood parameters stratified into children, adults and all ages, which were further grouped into the three 2009 WHO case classifications (dengue without warning signs, DwoWS; dengue with warning signs, DwWS; severe dengue, SD), non-severe dengue (non-SD) and 'All' cases. A total of 55 articles were included in the meta-analysis. Fifteen studies were conducted in the children's age category, 31 studies in the adult category and nine studies in all ages. The four selected pooled blood parameters for children were white blood cell (WBC) (×103/L) with 5.11 (SD), 5.64 (DwWS), 5.52 (DwoWS) and 4.68 (Non-SD) hematocrit (HCT) (%) with 36.78 (SD), 40.70 (DwWS), 35.00 (DwoWS) and 29.78 (Non-SD) platelet (PLT) (×103/µL) with 78.66 (SD), 108.01 (DwWS), 153.47 (DwoWS) and 108.29 (non-SD); and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (/µL) with 248.88 (SD), 170.83 (DwWS), 83.24 (DwoWS) and 102.99 (non-SD). For adult, WBC were 4.96 (SD), 6.44 (DwWS), 7.74 (DwoWS) and 3.61 (non-SD); HCT were 39.50 (SD), 39.00 (DwWS), 37.45 (DwoWS) and 41.68 (non-SD); PLT were 49.62 (SD), 96.60 (DwWS), 114.37 (DwoWS) and 71.13 (non-SD); and AST were 399.50 (SD), 141.01 (DwWS), 96.19 (DwoWS) and 118.13 (non-SD). These blood parameters could not differentiate between each dengue severity according to the WHO 2009 classification, SD, DwoWS, DwWS and non-SD, because the timing of blood drawing was not known and there was an overlapping confidence interval among the clinical classification. Hence, these pooled blood parameter values could not be used to guide clinicians in management and did not correlate with severity as in previous scientific literatures and guidelines.

Mechanism of Immune Evasion in Mosquito-Borne Diseases

In recent decades, mosquito-borne illnesses have emerged as a major health burden in many tropical regions. These diseases, such as malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, Zika virus infection, Rift Valley fever, Japanese encephalitis, and West Nile virus infection, are transmitted through the bite of infected mosquitoes. These pathogens have been shown to interfere with the host's immune system through adaptive and innate immune mechanisms, as well as the human circulatory system. Crucial immune checkpoints such as antigen presentation, T cell activation, differentiation, and proinflammatory response play a vital role in the host cell's response to pathogenic infection. Furthermore, these immune evasions have the potential to stimulate the human immune system, resulting in other associated non-communicable diseases. This review aims to advance our understanding of mosquito-borne diseases and the immune evasion mechanisms by associated pathogens. Moreover, it highlights the adverse outcomes of mosquito-borne disease.

Predictors of Mortality in Patients With Dengue Fever: Insights From a Comparative Analysis

Objective To determine the clinical and biochemical predictors of mortality in patients with dengue fever. Methods This was an analytical, cross-sectional study conducted at Hayatabad Medical Complex, Peshawar, Pakistan. The study participants were patients admitted to the hospital for the management of dengue fever. Clinical parameters (age, gender, duration of hospital stay, and the presence of complications) and biochemical parameters [white blood cells count (WBC), platelet count, serum c-reactive protein (CRP) level, serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level, and serum creatinine] were recorded. These parameters were compared between the survivors and non-survivors of dengue fever. Results Out of 115 patients, the majority (n=82, 71.3%) were up to 45 years and the mean age was 38.40 ± 18.1 years. Most of the patients (n=105, 91.3%) survived. On univariate logistic regression analysis, age more than 45 years [odds ratio (OR) 0.141, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.034 - 0.585, p = 0.007), leukocytosis (> 11,000/mcL) (OR 0.187, 95% CI 0.049 - 0.719, p = 0.015), and acute kidney injury (creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL) (OR 0.124, 95% CI 0.029 - 0.531, p = 0.005)] at the time of admission reduced the likelihood to survive. Leukocytosis and acute kidney injury remained significant independent predictors of mortality on multivariate logistic regression analysis. [(OR 0.201, 95% CI 0.042 - 0.960, p = 0.044) and (OR 0.148, 95% CI 0.026 - 0.857, p = 0.033) for survival, respectively]. Gender, duration of inpatient stay, thrombocytopenia (platelets < 30,000/mcL), and acute liver injury (ALT > 200 IU/L) were not associated with mortality from dengue fever. Conclusion Age over 45 years, leukocytosis, and acute kidney injury at presentation increased the likelihood of mortality from dengue fever in this study. Gender, duration of hospital stay, thrombocytopenia, and acute liver injury did not affect the odds of mortality.

Risk Factors for Mortality in Patients with Dengue: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate risk factors for mortality in dengue.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis searching MEDLINE, Embase, SciELO, LILACS Bireme, and OpenGrey to identify eligible observational studies of patients with dengue, of both genders, aged 14 years or older, that analyzed risk factors associated with mortality and reported adjusted risk measures with their respective confidence intervals (CIs). We estimated the pooled weighted mean difference and 95% CIs with a DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model. Methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.

RESULTS

Of 1,170 citations reviewed, 18 papers, with a total of 25,851 patients, were included in the systematic review and 12 in the meta-analysis. Severe hepatitis (OR 29.222, 95% CI: 3.876-220.314), dengue shock syndrome (OR 23.575, 95% CI 3.664-151.702), altered mental status (OR 3.76, 95% CI 1.67-8.42), diabetes mellitus (OR 3.698, 95% CI 1.196-11.433), and higher pulse rate (OR 1.039, 95% CI 1.011-1.067) are associated with mortality in patients with dengue. All studies included were classified as having a high quality.

CONCLUSIONS

Proper identification and management of these risk factors should be considered to improve patient outcomes and reduce the hidden burden of this neglected tropical disease. Future well-designed studies are needed to investigate the association of other clinical, radiological, and laboratorial findings with mortality in dengue, as well as to develop prognostic models based on the risk factors found in our study.

Dynamic Changes of Platelet and Factors Related Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever: A Retrospective Study in Indonesian

Dengue is a viral infection caused by the dengue virus (DENV). Dengue infection is a self-limited acute febrile illness caused by four serotypes of DENV (DENV-1~4). Early recognition of high-risk patients would be helpful to reduce mortality rates and prevent severe dengue. Our study aimed to identify factors related to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) based on admission-day data, and further to understand the distribution of biochemical laboratory data in dengue patients. This retrospective study was conducted in hospitals in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, and involved febrile patients who were admitted to the hospital with a diagnosis of dengue during 2018 and 2020. Logistic regression models were used to identify variables related to DHF. In this study, 1087 patients were included as suspected dengue patients, among them 468 had dengue fever (DF) and 619 had DHF. Over half of the DHF patients were males (55.9%) with an average age of 17.9 years, and with a secondary infection (71.3%). By a multivariate analysis, on-admission laboratory data of thrombocytopenia and hemoglobin showed significant association with DHF. Furthermore, DHF patients had significantly prolonged hospitalizations compared to DF patients. In conclusion, on-admission platelet counts and hemoglobin laboratory data are useful as predictors of DHF especially for suspected dengue patients with the limitations of diagnostic tests.

Short-term, medium-term, and long-term risks of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding after dengue virus infection

Dengue patients have an increased risk of acute gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. However, whether dengue virus (DENV) infection can cause an increased long-term risk of GI bleeding remains unknown, especially among elderly individuals who commonly take antithrombotic drugs. A retrospective population-based cohort study was conducted by analyzing the National Health Insurance Research Databases. Laboratory-confirmed dengue patients from 2002 to 2012 and four matched nondengue controls were identified. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate the acute (<30 days), medium-term (31–365 days), and long-term (>365 days) risks of nonvariceal upper GI bleeding after DENV infection. Stratified analyses by age group (≤50, 51–64, ≥65 years old) were also performed. In total, 13267 confirmed dengue patients and 53068 nondengue matched controls were included. After adjusting for sex, age, area of residence, comorbidities, and medications, dengue patients had a significantly increased risk of nonvariceal upper GI bleeding within 30 days of disease onset (adjusted HR 55.40; 95% CI: 32.17–95.42). However, DENV infection was not associated with increased medium-term and long-term risks of upper GI bleeding overall or in each age group. Even dengue patients who developed acute GI bleeding did not have increased medium-term (adjusted HR; 0.55, 95% CI 0.05–6.18) and long-term risks of upper GI bleeding (adjusted HR; 1.78, 95% CI 0.89–3.55). DENV infection was associated with a significantly increased risk of nonvariceal upper GI bleeding within 30 days but not thereafter. Recovered dengue patients with acute GI bleeding can resume antithrombotic treatments to minimize the risk of thrombosis.

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne tropical disease caused by the dengue virus. Dengue patients can have low platelet counts and might have acute gastrointestinal bleeding (tarry stool, bloody stool or bloody vomiting). Most dengue patients will fully recover and return to their previous health levels. Previous studies have indicated that some dengue patients have persistent low platelet counts and high inflammatory responses. The medium-term and long-term upper gastrointestinal bleeding risks remain unknown. Our study suggested that dengue was significantly associated with an increased risk of nonvariceal upper GI bleeding within 30 days after infection but was not associated with increased medium-term (31–365 days) and long-term risks (>365 days) of upper GI bleeding. Therefore, the risk of acute gastroenterology bleeding returned to baseline levels after 30 days. Recovered dengue patients with acute GI bleeding can resume antiplatelet, antithrombotic, and oral anticoagulation (OAC) treatments.

Clinical profile of dengue in the elderly using surveillance data from two epidemics

Background:

Population aging and mobility have increased the exposure of elderly individuals to dengue. This study evaluated the clinical features of dengue in the elderly during the epidemic (2008 and 2012) and interepidemic (2009 and 2010) periods.

Methods:

This cross-sectional study was based on dengue surveillance data from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: 2008 (n=31,210), 2009‒2010 (n=2,884), and 2012 (n=30,773). The analysis was stratified by age group (<60 and ≥60 years).

Results:

Case-fatality rates were higher in the elderly. In 2008, elderly individuals were found to be more prone to hematuria and thrombocytopenia.

Conclusions:

These results can improve the understanding of dengue in elderly individuals who live in or travel to tropical regions.

Dengue models based on machine learning techniques: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Dengue modeling is a research topic that has increased in recent years. Early prediction and decision-making are key factors to control dengue. This Systematic Literature Review (SLR) analyzes three modeling approaches of dengue: diagnostic, epidemic, intervention. These approaches require models of prediction, prescription and optimization. This SLR establishes the state-of-the-art in dengue modeling, using machine learning, in the last years.

METHODS

Several databases were selected to search the articles. The selection was made based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. Sixty-four articles were obtained and analyzed to describe their strengths and limitations. Finally, challenges and opportunities for research on machine-learning for dengue modeling were identified.

RESULTS

Logistic regression was the most used modeling approach for the diagnosis of dengue (59.1%). The analysis of the epidemic approach showed that linear regression (17.4%) is the most used technique within the spatial analysis. Finally, the most used intervention modeling is General Linear Model with 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that cause-effect models may improve diagnosis and understanding of dengue. Models that manage uncertainty can also be helpful, because of low data-quality in healthcare. Finally, decentralization of data, using federated learning, may decrease computational costs and allow model building without compromising data security.

Predictors and Outcomes of Dengue-Associated Acute Kidney Injury

Dengue viral infections present with a wide clinical spectrum ranging from asymptomatic to severe manifestations with organ involvement. The term "expanded dengue syndrome" has been commonly used to illustrate the unusual or atypical manifestations; acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the atypical manifestations of this syndrome. The use of heterogeneous criteria to determine the presence of AKI in dengue patients due to the vast diversity in populations led to difficulties in assessing the true incidence of dengue-associated AKI. This review presents a variable, but often high, frequency of dengue-associated AKI among vastly diverse populations with various disease severities. Dengue-associated AKI is not an uncommon complication, and its importance has often been neglected during the management of dengue patients. The risk factors and certain clinical and laboratory findings commonly reported among dengue patients with AKI should be considered to support a timely diagnosis and case management. This review highlights the need for clinicians to be aware of dengue-associated AKI to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this common and important tropical disease.

Validation of shock index for predicting mortality in older patients with dengue fever

BACKGROUND

Older adults have a higher mortality for dengue fever (DF). However, the best method for predicting mortality is still unclear.

AIMS

We conducted this study to evaluate the shock index (SI) for this issue.

METHODS

A retrospective case-control study was conducted by recruiting older patients (≥ 65 years old) with DF who visited the study hospital in southern Taiwan during the 2015 DF outbreak. Demographic data, vital signs, past histories, decision groups, complications, and mortality were included in the analyses. We evaluated the accuracy of SI ≥ 1 for predicting 30-day mortality in this population.

RESULTS

A total of 626 patients with a mean age of 74.1 years and nearly equal sex distribution were recruited. The mean of SI (± standard deviation [SD]) was 0.6 (± 0.2) and patients with a SI ≥ 1 accounted for 3.5% of the total patients. Logistic regression showed that patients with SI ≥ 1 had a higher mortality than those with SI < 1 (odds ratio: 8.49; 95% confidence interval: 1.76-17.92). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic was 0.76, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was 0.48. The SI ≥ 1 had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 14.8%, 97.0%, 18.2%, and 96.2% for predicting mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The SI ≥ 1 is an easy tool that can be potentially used to predict 30-day mortality in older DF patients, especially in DF outbreak. It has a high specificity and negative predictive value for excluding patients with high-risk mortality.

Leucocytosis and early organ involvement as risk factors of mortality in adults with dengue fever

The clinical profile and risk factors for mortality in dengue fever have evolved over the years. The all-cause mortality in admitted dengue patients is around 6%. We aimed to evaluate the recent change in trends of the clinical characteristics and risk factors for in-hospital mortality in adults with dengue fever. This is a retrospective study on adults with confirmed dengue fever admitted in a medical unit of a tertiary care center in North India. Medical records of confirmed dengue fever patients admitted between January 2011, and December 2016 were reviewed. Chi-squared tests with Bonferroni correction for multiple testing were used to identify risk factors for mortality. 232 records were included, of which 66.8% were males. The mean age was 31.6 ± 14 years. There were 17 deaths with an all-cause mortality rate of 7.3% with 76.5% being classified as severe dengue at admission. Among the 17 mortality cases, dyspnea (47%), tachypnea (86.7%), leucocytosis (58.8%), raised urea (80%), and elevated serum creatinine (52.9%) at presentation were significantly associated with mortality (p < 0.001). Shock at any time during the hospital stay (58.8%) was also found to be significantly associated with mortality (p < 0.001). We found that dyspnea, tachypnea, acute kidney injury, and leucocytosis at presentation was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. Based on our results, we recommend aggressive management of patients with severe dengue and those with mild/moderate disease with the above risk factors.

Prevalence of Geriatric Syndromes and the Need for Hospice Care in Older Patients of the Emergency Department: A Study in an Asian Medical Center

Background

The prevalence of geriatric syndromes and the need for hospice care in the emergency department (ED) in Asian populations remain unclear. This study was conducted to fill the data gap.

Methods

Using a newly developed emergency geriatric assessment (EGA), we investigated the prevalence of geriatric syndromes and the need for hospice care in older ED patients of a tertiary medical center between September 1, 2016, and January 31, 2017.

Results

We recruited a total of 693 patients with a mean age of 78.0 years (standard deviation 8.2 years), comprising 46.6% of females. According to age subgroups, 37.4% of patients were aged 65-74 years, 37.4% were aged 75-84 years, and 25.2% were aged ≥85 years. The prevalence rates of geriatric syndromes were as follows: delirium (11.4%), depression (23.4%), dementia (43.1%), deterioration of activities of daily living (ADL) for <1 year (29.4%), vision impairment (22.2%), hearing impairment (23.8%), sleep disturbance (13.1%), any fall in <1 year (21.8%), polypharmacy (28.7%), pain (35.1%), pressure ulcer (5.6%), incontinence or retention (29.6%), indwelling device or physical restrain (21.6%), nutrition problem (35.7%), frequent use of medical resources (50.1%), lack of advance care planning (84.0%), caregiver problem (4.6%), socioeconomic problem (5.5%), and need for family meeting (6.2%). The need for hospice care was 11.9%. Most geriatric syndromes increased with advancing age except depression, sleep disturbance, polypharmacy, pain, nutrition problem, lack of advance care planning, caregiver problem, and socioeconomic problem.

Conclusion

Geriatric syndromes and the need for hospice care were common in the older ED patients. Further studies about subsequent intervention for improving geriatric care are needed.

Severe dengue and liver involvement: an overview and review of the literature

Introduction: Two billion population are at risk of dengue fever and by 2080, over six billion population will be at risk. Hepatitis is common in dengue and the liver is invariably involved in severe cases. We conducted a literature review using the PubMed database on articles covering a broad range of issues related to dengue and hepatitis.Areas covered: This article overviews available literature on changes in the definition of severe dengue, pathogenesis of liver involvement in dengue, clinical manifestations, and predictors of mortality in severe dengue with liver involvement, impact of viral hepatitis co-infections and hepatotoxic drugs, and hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis.Expert commentary: Hepatitis is commonly seen in dengue however the degree of elevation of transaminases did not correlate well with severity of illness in observational studies, except in the elderly. The underlying pathogenesis of liver injury is still being elucidated and further studies are required to fully understand the cellular pathways. Acute or chronic viral hepatitis does not appear to affect dengue outcomes. Commonly used medications such as paracetamol and statins may influence dengue outcomes.

Long-term mortality in older adults with chronic pain: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan

PURPOSE

This study was conducted to clarify the long-term mortality in the older population with chronic pain (CP), which is still unclear.

METHODS

We identified 17,568 older participants (aged ≥ 65 years) with CP and an identical number of comparison cohort without CP matched 1:1 by age and sex between 1996 and 2000 from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Causes of CP, underlying comorbidities, living areas, and mortality were collected for analyses. The long-term mortality and the causes of mortality were compared between the two cohorts through follow-up since 2000 until 2015.

RESULTS

The mean age (± standard deviation) was 73.5 ± 5.7 years, and female participants comprised 55.1% in both cohorts. The most common causes of CP were osteoarthritis (24.2%), spinal disorders (22.4%), peripheral vascular diseases (14.0%), and osteoporosis (9.5%). Older participants with CP had an increased rate of long-term mortality compared to that among their counterparts without CP after adjusting for the underlying comorbidities and the causes of CP (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.21). The increased mortality rate was observed even after the follow-up of 6 years (AHR 1.15; 95% CI 1.10-1.20). No significant difference was observed in the causes of mortality between the two cohorts. The most common cause of mortality was malignancy, followed by cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Chronic pain was associated with an increased rate of long-term mortality in the older population. Early detection and intervention for treating CP are suggested for this population.

Diagnostic accuracy and predictive value in differentiating the severity of dengue infection

OBJECTIVE

To review the diagnostic test accuracy and predictive value of statistical models in differentiating the severity of dengue infection.

METHODS

Electronic searches were conducted in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE (complete), PubMed and Scopus. Eligible studies to be included in this review were cohort studies with participants confirmed by laboratory test for dengue infection and comparison among the different severity of dengue infection by using statistical models. The methodological quality of the paper was assessed by independent reviewers using QUADAS-2.

RESULTS

Twenty-six studies published from 1994 to 2017 were included. Most diagnostic models produced an accuracy of 75% to 80% except one with 86%. Two models predicting severe dengue according to the WHO 2009 classification have 86% accuracy. Both of these logistic regression models were applied during the first three days of illness, and their sensitivity and specificity were 91-100% and 79.3-86%, respectively. Another model which evaluated the 30-day mortality of dengue infection had an accuracy of 98.5%.

CONCLUSION

Although there are several potential predictive or diagnostic models for dengue infection, their limitations could affect their validity. It is recommended that these models be revalidated in other clinical settings and their methods be improved and standardised in future.

Geriatric influenza death (GID) score: a new tool for predicting mortality in older people with influenza in the emergency department

Although influenza may cause death in the geriatric population, the best method for predicting mortality in this population is still unclear. We retrospectively recruited older people (≥65 yr) with influenza visiting the emergency department (ED) of a medical center between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent mortality predictors and then developed a prediction score. Four hundred nine older ED patients with a nearly equal sex ratio were recruited. Five independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma (Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤8), past histories of cancer and coronary artery disease, elevated C-reactive protein levels (>10 mg/dl), and bandemia (>10% band cells). We divided the patients into three mortality risk and disposition groups: (1) low risk (1.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-3.0%); (2) moderate risk (16.7%; 95% CI, 9.3-28.0%); and (3) high risk (40%; 95% CI, 19.8-64.2%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit of the GID score were 0.86 and 0.578, respectively. The GID score is an efficient and simple tool for predicting mortality in older ED patients with influenza. Further studies are warranted to validate its use.

Shock index predicted mortality in geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The shock index is a rapid and simple tool used to predict mortality in patients with acute illnesses including sepsis, multiple trauma, and postpartum hemorrhage. However, its ability to predict mortality in geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department (ED) remains unclear. This study was conducted to clarify this issue.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective case-control study, recruiting geriatric patients (≥ 65 years) with influenza visiting the ED of a medical center between January 01, 2010 and December 31, 2015. Demographic data, vital signs, shock index, past histories, subtypes of influenza, and outcomes were included for the analysis. We investigated the association between shock index ≥1 and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 409 geriatric ED patients with mean age of 79.5 years and nearly equal sex ratio were recruited. The mean shock index ± standard deviation was 0.7 ± 0.22 and shock index ≥1 was accounted for in 7.1% of the total patients. Logistic regression showed that shock index ≥1 predicted mortality (odds ratio: 6.80; 95% confidence interval: 2.39-19.39). The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.62 and the result of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was 0.23. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of a shock index ≥1 were 30.0%, 94.1%, 20.0%, and 96.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

A shock index ≥1 has a high specificity, negative predictive value, and good reliability to predict 30-day mortality in geriatric ED patients with influenza.