Effect of the disease severity on the risk of developing new-onset diabetes after acute pancreatitis

The risk of developing splanchnic vein thrombosis in acute pancreatitis increases 3 days after symptom onset: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Splanchnic vein thrombosis is a complication of acute pancreatitis (AP) and is likely often underdiagnosed.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to understand the time course and risk factors of splanchnic vein thrombosis in the early phase of AP.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted using the PRISMA guidelines (PROSPERO registration CRD42022367578). Inclusion criteria were appropriate imaging techniques in adult AP patients, studies that reported splanchnic vein thrombosis data from the early phase, and reliable information on the timing of imaging in relation to the onset of pancreatitis symptoms or hospital admission. The proportion of patients with thrombosis with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was calculated using random-effects meta-analyses, and multiple subgroup analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Data from 1951 patients from 14 studies were analyzed. The proportion of patients with splanchnic vein thrombosis within 12 days after symptom onset was 0.13 (CI 0.07-0.23). The occurrence was lowest at 0.06 (CI 0.03-0.1) between 0 and 3 days after symptom onset, and increased fourfold to 0.23 (CI 0.16-0.31) between 3 and 11 days. On hospital admission, the proportion of patients affected was 0.12 (CI 0.02-0.49); it was 0.17 (CI 0.03-0.58) 1-5 days after admission. The prevalence in mild, moderate, and severe AP was 0.15 (CI 0.05-0.36), 0.26 (CI 0.15-0.43), and 0.27 (CI 0.17-0.4), respectively. Alcoholic etiology (0.31, CI 0.13-0.58) and pancreatic necrosis (0.55, CI 0.29-0.78, necrosis above 30%) correlated with increased SVT prevalence.

CONCLUSION

The risk of developing splanchnic vein thrombosis is significant in the early stages of AP and may affect up to a quarter of patients. Alcoholic etiology, pancreatic necrosis, and severity may increase the prevalence of splanchnic vein thrombosis.

Risk factors for diabetes mellitus after acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Within 5 years of having acute pancreatitis (AP), approximately 20% of patients develop diabetes mellitus (DM), which later increases to approximately 40%. Some studies suggest that the prevalence of prediabetes (PD) and/or DM can grow as high as 59% over time. However, information on risk factors is limited. We aimed to identify risk factors for developing PD or DM following AP.

Methods

We systematically searched three databases up to 4 September 2023 extracting direct, within-study comparisons of risk factors on the rate of new-onset PD and DM in AP patients. When PD and DM event rates could not be separated, we reported results for this composite outcome as PD/DM. Meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Of the 61 studies identified, 50 were included in the meta-analysis, covering 76,797 participants. The studies reported on 79 risk factors, and meta-analysis was feasible for 34 risk factor and outcome pairs. The odds of developing PD/DM was significantly higher after severe and moderately severe AP (OR: 4.32; CI: 1.76-10.60) than mild AP. Hypertriglyceridemic AP etiology (OR: 3.27; CI: 0.17-63.91) and pancreatic necrosis (OR: 5.53; CI: 1.59-19.21) were associated with a higher risk of developing PD/DM. Alcoholic AP etiology (OR: 1.82; CI: 1.09-3.04), organ failure (OR: 3.19; CI: 0.55-18.64), recurrent AP (OR: 1.89; CI: 0.95-3.77), obesity (OR: 1.85; CI: 1.43-2.38), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.10; CI: 1.85-2.38), liver cirrhosis (OR: 2.48; CI: 0.18-34.25), and dyslipidemia (OR: 1.82; CI: 0.68-4.84) were associated with a higher risk of developing DM.

Discussion

Severe and moderately severe AP, alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemic etiologies, pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, recurrent acute pancreatitis and comorbidities of obesity, chronic kidney disease liver disease, and dyslipidemia are associated with a higher risk of developing PD or DM.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42021281983.

Management of Disconnected Pancreatic Duct

Disconnected pancreatic duct (DPD) is common after acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP). Its clinical implications vary according to the course of disease. In the early phase of ANP, parenchymal necrosis along with disruption of pancreatic duct cause acute necrotic collection that evolves into walled-off necrosis (WON). In the later phase, DPD becomes evident as confirmed by magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography. Clinical manifestations of DPD can vary from being asymptomatic, recurrent pain, recurrent pancreatic fluid collection (PFC), obstructive pancreatitis, or external pancreatic fistula (EPF). Few patients develop new-onset diabetes. Long-term indwelling plastic stents have been proposed to prevent the recurrent PFC.

Diabetes mellitus as a consequence of acute severe pancreatitis: Unraveling the mystery

The occurrence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in pancreatitis is being increasingly recognized lately. Diabetes can develop not only with chronic pancreatitis but even after the first episode of acute pancreatitis (AP). The incidence of diabetes after AP varies from 18% to 23% in 3 years and reaches up to 40% over 5 years. The exact pathogenesis of diabetes after AP is poorly understood and various mechanisms proposed include loss of islet cell mass, AP-induced autoimmunity, and alterations in the insulin incretin axis. Risk factors associated with increased risk of diabetes includes male sex, recurrent attacks of pancreatitis, presence of pancreatic exocrine insufficiency and level of pancreatitic necrosis. Diagnosis of post-pancreatitis DM (PPDM) is often excluded. Treatment includes a trial of oral antidiabetic drugs in mild diabetes. Often, insulin is required in uncontrolled diabetes. Given the lack of awareness of this metabolic disorder after AP, this review will evaluate current information on epidemiology, risk factors, diagnosis and management of PPDM and identify the knowledge gaps.

Post-acute pancreatitis diabetes: A complication waiting for more recognition and understanding

Post-acute pancreatitis diabetes (PAPD) is the second most common type of diabetes below type 2 diabetes mellitus. Due to the boom in research on this entity carried out during the last decade, its recognition has increased. However, much of the medical community still does not recognize it as a medium and long-term complication of acute pancreatitis (AP). Recent prospective cohort studies show that its incidence is about 23% globally and 34.5% in patients with severe AP. With the overall increase in the incidence of AP this complication will be certainly seen more frequently. Due to its high morbidity, mortality and difficult control, early detection and treatment are essential. However, its risk factors and pathophysiological mechanisms are not clearly defined. Its diagnosis should be made excluding pre-existing diabetes and applying the criteria of the American Diabetes Association after 90 d of resolution of one or more AP episodes. This review will show the evidence published so far on the incidence and prevalence, risk factors, possible pathophysiological mechanisms, clinical outcomes, clinical characteristics and preventive and corrective management of PAPD. Some important gaps needing to be clarified in forthcoming studies will also be discussed.

New-onset diabetes secondary to acute pancreatitis: An update

Diabetes is a condition of persistent hyperglycemia caused by the endocrine disorder of the pancreas. Therefore, all pancreatic diseases have the risk of diabetes. In particular, increasing attention has been paid recently to new-onset diabetes secondary to acute pancreatitis (AP). The complications of secondary diabetes have caused a lot of trouble for patients and have garnered increasing attention. At present, the pathophysiological mechanism of new-onset diabetes caused by AP is not clear. This review summarizes the current understanding of new-onset diabetes secondary to AP.

Acute Pancreatitis: Diagnosis and Treatment

Acute pancreatitis is a common indication for hospital admission, increasing in incidence, including in children, pregnancy and the elderly. Moderately severe acute pancreatitis with fluid and/or necrotic collections causes substantial morbidity, and severe disease with persistent organ failure causes significant mortality. The diagnosis requires two of upper abdominal pain, amylase/lipase ≥ 3 ×upper limit of normal, and/or cross-sectional imaging findings. Gallstones and ethanol predominate while hypertriglyceridaemia and drugs are notable among many causes. Serum triglycerides, full blood count, renal and liver function tests, glucose, calcium, transabdominal ultrasound, and chest imaging are indicated, with abdominal cross-sectional imaging if there is diagnostic uncertainty. Subsequent imaging is undertaken to detect complications, for example, if C-reactive protein exceeds 150 mg/L, or rarer aetiologies. Pancreatic intracellular calcium overload, mitochondrial impairment, and inflammatory responses are critical in pathogenesis, targeted in current treatment trials, which are crucially important as there is no internationally licenced drug to treat acute pancreatitis and prevent complications. Initial priorities are intravenous fluid resuscitation, analgesia, and enteral nutrition, and when necessary, critical care and organ support, parenteral nutrition, antibiotics, pancreatic exocrine and endocrine replacement therapy; all may have adverse effects. Patients with local complications should be referred to specialist tertiary centres to guide further management, which may include drainage and/or necrosectomy. The impact of acute pancreatitis can be devastating, so prevention or reduction of the risk of recurrence and progression to chronic pancreatitis with an increased risk of pancreas cancer requires proactive management that should be long term for some patients.

The Impact of Pancreatic Exocrine Diseases on the β-Cell and Glucose Metabolism-A Review with Currently Available Evidence

Pancreatic exocrine and endocrine dysfunctions often come together in the course of pancreatic diseases as interdependent manifestations of the same organ. However, the mechanisms underlying the bidirectional connection of the exocrine and endocrine pancreas are not fully understood. In this review, we aimed to synthetize the current knowledge regarding the effects of several exocrine pancreatic pathologies on the homeostasis of β-cells, with a special interest in the predisposition toward diabetes mellitus (DM). We focused on the following pancreatic exocrine diseases: chronic pancreatitis, acute pancreatitis, cystic fibrosis, pancreatic cancer, pancreatic resections, and autoimmune pancreatitis. We discuss the pathophysiologic mechanisms behind the impact on β-cell function and evolution into DM, as well as the associated risk factors in progression to DM, and we describe the most relevant and statistically significant findings in the literature. An early and correct diagnosis of DM in the setting of pancreatic exocrine disorders is of paramount importance for anticipating the disease's course and its therapeutical needs.

Acute pancreatitis-induced islet dysfunction in ferrets

BACKGROUND

/Objectives: The pathogenesis of hyperglycemia during acute pancreatitis (AP) remains unknown due to inaccessibility of human tissues and lack of animal models. We aimed to develop an animal model to study the mechanisms of hyperglycemia and impaired glucose tolerance in AP.

METHODS

We injected ferrets with intraperitoneal cerulein (50 μg/kg, 9 hourly injections) or saline. Blood samples were collected for glucose (0, 4, 8, 12, 24h); TNF-α, IL-6 (6h); amylase, lipase, insulin, glucagon, pancreatic polypeptide (PP), glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), and gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP) (24h). Animals underwent oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), mixed meal tolerance test (MMTT) at 24h or 3 months, followed by harvesting pancreas for histopathology and immunostaining.

RESULTS

Cerulein-injected ferrets exhibited mild pancreatic edema, neutrophil infiltration, and elevations in serum amylase, lipase, TNF-α, IL-6, consistent with AP. Plasma glucose was significantly higher in ferrets with AP at all time points. Plasma glucagon, GLP-1 and PP were significantly higher in cerulein-injected animals, while plasma insulin was significantly lower compared to controls. OGTT and MMTT showed abnormal glycemic responses with higher area under the curve. The hypoglycemic response to insulin injection was completely lost, suggestive of insulin resistance. OGTT showed low plasma insulin; MMTT confirmed low insulin and GIP; abnormal OGTT and MMTT responses returned to normal 3 months after cerulein injection.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute cerulein injection causes mild acute pancreatitis in ferrets and hyperglycemia related to transient islet cell dysfunction and insulin resistance. The ferret cerulein model may contribute to the understanding of hyperglycemia in acute pancreatitis.

Identification of a Risk Profile for New-Onset Diabetes After Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

There is a paucity of studies evaluating predictors of new-onset diabetes mellitus (DM) after acute pancreatitis (AP-related DM). We used a population-based database to evaluate predictors of AP-related DM.

METHODS

The Nationwide Readmissions Database (2010-2014) was used to identify all nondiabetic adults with an index primary diagnosis of AP. Multiple exclusions were applied to identify cohorts with and without AP-related DM. A case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for developing AP-related DM within the calendar year.

RESULTS

We identified 2510 subjects with AP-related DM and 40,308 controls with AP who did not develop DM. Multivariable analysis revealed that increasing age (50-64 years; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-1.60), male sex (aOR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.03-1.40), lowest income quartile (aOR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.18-1.84), Elixhauser comorbidity index of 3 or higher (aOR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.23-1.75), components of metabolic syndrome (aOR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.21-3.70), severe AP (aOR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.34-1.90), and recurrent AP (aOR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.24-1.72) were independently associated with increased risk of AP-related DM.

CONCLUSIONS

These population-level variables predictive of developing AP-related DM can potentially identify patients who may benefit from closer follow-up, intensive education, and implementation of preventative strategies.

Mechanisms of Post-Pancreatitis Diabetes Mellitus and Cystic Fibrosis-Related Diabetes: A Review of Preclinical Studies

Anatomical proximity and functional correlations between the exocrine and endocrine pancreas warrant reciprocal effects between the two parts. Inflammatory diseases of the exocrine pancreas, such as acute or chronic pancreatitis, or the presence of cystic fibrosis disrupt endocrine function, resulting in diabetes of the exocrine pancreas. Although novel mechanisms are being increasingly identified, the intra- and intercellular pathways regulating exocrine-endocrine interactions are still not fully understood, making the development of new and more effective therapies difficult. Therefore, this review sought to accumulate current knowledge regarding the pathogenesis of diabetes in acute and chronic pancreatitis, as well as cystic fibrosis.

Acute pancreatitis and diabetes mellitus: a review

Diabetes following acute pancreatitis (AP) is becoming increasingly recognized. It is unclear what subtype of diabetes mellitus (DM) occurs; however, type 3c diabetes mellitus (T3cDM) is gaining increasing recognition. T3cDM has differing pathophysiology than other subtypes of DM and therefore differing disease course and treatment. Current studies have examined the incidence and prevalence of DM following AP, and meta-analyses have shown around 15% develop DM at 1 year with an increasing proportion developing DM at 5 years. It has been observed that some patients have transient hyperglycemia following AP episode with a subset developing persistent impaired glucose metabolism; however, the exact timeline is not well defined. The data on risk factors for developing DM after AP is limited and mixed; however, it is likely that severity of AP may impact the propensity to develop DM. Screening guidelines have not been established following AP; however, screening 1-year post-event will likely capture a sizable proportion of newly developed DM. The endocrine and exocrine pancreas are closely linked, and studies have found significant overlap in dysfunction of both after AP. Finally, there are some data to suggest that diabetes predisposes patients to structural changes in the pancreas and increased risk of developing AP.

Comparison of pancreatic function and quality of life between patients with infected pancreatitis necrosis undergoing open necrosectomy and minimally invasive drainage: A long-term study

The present study aimed to determine whether a difference in pancreatic function and quality of life (QoL) is present between patients with infected pancreatitis necrosis (IPN) undergoing open necrosectomy (ON) and minimally invasive drainage (MID). The medical records of patients with IPN discharged from Jinling Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Pancreatic function and QoL were compared between patients treated with ON and MID. Pancreatic endocrine and exocrine function were assessed using the oral glucose tolerance test and fecal elastase-1 (FE-1) test, respectively. The standard Short Form 36 health questionnaire was used to evaluate the QoL of patients. The analysis included 101 patients who underwent either ON (n=40, 39.6%) or MID (n=61, 60.4%). There were no significant differences in exocrine and endocrine pancreatic function between the two groups evaluated based on FE-1, fasting blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin and 2-h plasma glucose (P<0.05). The scores of the QoL questionnaire were significantly higher in patients treated with MID than in patients treated with ON, including the scores of general health perception (19.39±3.07 vs. 17.37±3.63, P=0.003), vitality (18.93±2.88 vs. 17.57±3.47, P=0.035), social role functioning (8.85±1.43 vs. 8.15±1.98, P=0.042), emotional role functioning (5.33±1.07 vs. 4.82±1.25, P=0.034), mental health (24.21±3.31 vs. 22.57±3.91, P=0.026) and the total QoL score (125.12±13.16 vs. 116.50±16.94, P=0.005). In conclusion, although the initial health of the patient may have influenced the treatment provided, patients with IPN who received MID achieved a better post-treatment QoL than those treated with ON. No significant differences between the two groups were observed regarding the endocrine and exocrine functions of the pancreas.

The continuum of complications in survivors of necrotizing pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Necrotizing pancreatitis survivors develop complications beyond infected necrosis that often require invasive intervention. Remarkably few data have cataloged these late complications after acute necrotizing pancreatitis resolution. We sought to identify the types and incidence of complications after necrotizing pancreatitis.

DESIGN

An observational study was performed evaluating 647 patients with necrotizing pancreatitis captured in a single-institution database between 2005 and 2017 at a tertiary care hospital. Retrospective review and analysis of newly diagnosed conditions attributable to necrotizing pancreatitis was performed. Exclusion criteria included the following: death before disease resolution (n = 57, 9%) and patients lost to follow-up (n = 12, 2%).

RESULTS

A total of 578 patients were followed for a median of 46 months (range, 8 months to 15 y) after necrotizing pancreatitis. In 489 (85%) patients 1 or more complications developed and included symptomatic disconnected pancreatic duct syndrome (285 of 578, 49%), splanchnic vein thrombosis (257 of 572, 45%), new endocrine insufficiency (195 of 549, 35%), new exocrine insufficiency (108 of 571, 19%), symptomatic chronic pancreatitis (93 of 571, 16%), incisional hernia (89 of 420, 21%), biliary stricture (90 of 576, 16%), chronic pain (44 of 575, 8%), gastrointestinal fistula (44 of 578, 8%), pancreatic duct stricture (30 of 578, 5%), and duodenal stricture (28 of 578, 5%). During the follow-up period, a total of 340 (59%) patients required an invasive intervention after necrotizing pancreatitis resolution. Invasive pancreatobiliary intervention was required in 230 (40%) patients.

CONCLUSION

Late complications are common in necrotizing pancreatitis survivors. A broad variety of problems manifest themselves after resolution of the acute disease process and often require invasive intervention. Necrotizing pancreatitis patients should be followed lifelong by experienced clinicians.

Pancreatic necrosis and severity are independent risk factors for pancreatic endocrine insufficiency after acute pancreatitis: A long-term follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic endocrine insufficiency after acute pancreatitis (AP) has drawn increasing attention in recent years.

AIM

To assess the impact of risk factors on the development of pancreatic endocrine insufficiency after AP.

METHODS

This retrospective observational long-term follow-up study was conducted in a tertiary hospital. Endocrine function was evaluated by the oral glucose tolerance test. The data, including age, sex, body mass index, APACHE II score, history of smoking and drinking, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, debridement of necrosis (minimally invasive and/or open surgery), and time interval, were collected from the record database.

RESULTS

A total of 361 patients were included in the study from January 1, 2012 to December 30, 2018. A total of 150 (41.6%) patients were diagnosed with dysglycemia (including diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance), while 211 (58.4%) patients had normal endocrine function. The time intervals (mo) of the above two groups were 18.73 ± 19.10 mo and 31.53 ± 27.27 mo, respectively (P = 0.001). The morbidity rates of pancreatic endocrine insufficiency were 46.7%, 28.0%, and 25.3%, respectively, in the groups with different follow-up times. The risk factors for pancreatic endocrine insufficiency after AP were severity (odds ratio [OR] = 3.489; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.501-8.111; P = 0.004) and pancreatic necrosis (OR = 4.152; 95%CI: 2.580-6.684; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Pancreatic necrosis and severity are independent risk factors for pancreatic endocrine insufficiency after AP. The area of pancreatic necrosis can affect pancreatic endocrine function.

Beneficial Effects of n-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids on Offspring's Pancreas of Gestational Diabetes Rats

We studied the long-term influence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) on the pancreas of offspring and the effect of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFAs) on offspring's pancreas. GDM offspring were divided into three groups: GDM offspring, n-3 PUFA-adequate-GDM offspring, and n-3 PUFA-deficient GDM offspring. All healthy and GDM offspring were fed up to 11 months old. The pancreas of GDM offspring exhibited fatty infiltration at 11 months old, whereas n-3 PUFA improved the pancreatic fatty infiltration. n-3 PUFA lowered the pancreatic oxidative stress and inflammation. Surprisingly, n-3 PUFA postponed pancreatic telomere shortening of GDM offspring at old age. Nontargeted metabolomics showed that many metabolites were altered in the pancreas of GDM offspring at old age, including l-valine, ceramide, acylcarnitines, tocotrienol, cholesteryl acetate, and biotin. n-3 PUFA modulated some altered metabolites and metabolic pathways. Therefore, GDM caused the long-term effects on offspring's pancreas, whereas n-3 PUFA played a beneficial role.

Untypical autoimmune pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer: differential diagnosis experiences extracted from misdiagnose of two cases

BACKGROUND

Differentiation between pancreatic cancer (PC) and focal form of autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) is very challenging, with similar clinical presentations, laboratory results and morphologic imagings of US, CT, EUS, MRI, ERCP, PET-CT. Even serum IgG4 and biopsy sometimes cannot give clear-cut differential accurate diagnostis. Considering the totally different management strategy of the two diseases, accurate diagnostic value is urgently needed to remind the clinicians of the rare diagnosis of untypical AIP among frequent PC-suspected patients.

RESULTS

We present 2 laparotomy cases of AIP that had a high similar characteristic to PC and retrospectively extracted the warning signs that may help select untypical AIP in PC-suspected patients.

CONCLUSIONS

We find that mild fluctuating jaundice with abdominal pain, young age, tumor marker of TPS, TPA and diverse results between variable radiological tests can help to differentiate AIP mass from PC, through retrospectively analyzing work-up process of AIP in two patients who underwent laparotomy for suspected PC.

Disconnected Pancreatic Duct in Children With Walled OFF Necrosis: Impact on Outcomes of Endoscopic Drainage

OBJECTIVES

Disconnected pancreatic duct syndrome (DPDS) is frequently encountered in cases with walled off necrosis (WON). The impact of DPDS on the outcomes of pancreatic fluid collections (PFCs) is not well known. In this study, we aim to evaluate the incidence of DPDS and its clinical impact on the outcomes of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided drainage of PFC in children.

METHODS

All children with symptomatic WON who underwent EUS-guided drainage using metal stents were included in the study. At 4 weeks, pancreatic ductal anatomy was evaluated, and metal stents removed. All the children were followed at regular intervals and evaluated for the recurrence of PFC and the development of new-onset diabetes.

RESULTS

A total of 32 children (28 boys, median age 15 years) underwent EUS-guided drainage of WON. Resolution of WON was documented in all children at 4 weeks. Pancreatic ductal anatomy using magnetic resonance retrograde cholangiopancreatography and endoscopic retrograde pancreatography was available in 30 (93.7%) children. Of these, DPDS was documented in 25 (83.3%) children including proximal disconnection in 12 and distal disconnection in 13 children. Recurrent PFC and new-onset diabetes were found in 5 (20%) and 2 (8%) children with DPDS, respectively. Of the 5 recurrences of PFC, endoscopic reintervention was required in 3 children.

CONCLUSIONS

Majority of the children with DPDS do not develop a symptomatic recurrence of PFC after the removal of cystogastric stents. DPDS may be a risk factor for the development of new-onset diabetes. However, future prospective studies are needed.

Incidence of New Onset Diabetes Mellitus Secondary to Acute Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background and Aims: Patients who have an episode of acute pancreatitis (AP) frequently develop diabetes mellitus (DM) over time. The reported incidence of DM after AP varies depending on the severity, etiology and the extent of pancreatic necrosis during AP. We performed a systematic review to determine the incidence of new-onset DM after AP episode (s), and compared the rate of DM in AP patients based upon different disease characteristics. Methods: A total of 31 relevant studies with 13894 subjects were collected from Medline, Embase, and Web of Science. Stata 15 software was used for data analyses in the meta-analysis. Results: The random-effects pooled incidence was 23.0% for DM (95% CI 16.0-31.0%) and 15.0% (95% CI 9.0-23.0%) for DM treated with insulin. We noted substantial heterogeneity in incidence estimates for DM and DM treated with insulin (I 2 = 95.61 and 71.78%; both p < 0·001). The DM incidence was higher in the populations that had a severe AP (SAP) episode than in those with mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) (39 vs. 14%). Patients that displayed pancreatic necrosis during the AP attack(s) had a higher frequency of DM than those without necrosis (37 vs. 11%). In addition, the pooled incidence of DM was higher after alcoholic compared to biliary AP (28 vs. 12%). The incidence of insulin use after SAP and alcoholic AP was 21 and 18%, respectively, with very low heterogeneities. According to duration of follow-up, the pooled rate of DM and insulin use within 5 years after AP was 20 and 14%, while the rate associated with follow-up duration of more than 5 years was elevated to 37 and 25%, respectively. On meta-regression, year of publication, male proportion, age at DM test, and duration of follow-up were neither positively nor negatively associated with the incidence of DM and DM treated with insulin in patients who had a prior AP attack. Conclusion: Patients with AP developed DM after discharge from hospital with a frequency of about 23%. SAP, alcoholic AP and acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) were associated with increased incidence of DM. Assessments of severity, etiology, and pancreatic necrosis are critical for predicting DM development after AP.

Nomogram for predicting diabetes mellitus after the first attack of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus can occur after acute pancreatitis (AP), but there are currently no tools for evaluating the risk of developing diabetes after an attack of AP. The aim of the study was to develop a nomogram for prediction of new-onset diabetes mellitus after the first attack of AP.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled 616 patients with first-attack AP. We collected and statistically analyzed demographic data (age, BMI, and duration of hospitalization) and laboratory data (glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and cholesterol).

RESULTS

Univariate analysis suggested duration of hospitalization (P=0.0003), BMI (P=0.0059), cholesterol (P=0.0005), triglyceride (P=0.0005), hemoglobin (P=0.0229), and glucose (P<0.001) at admission were significantly associated with newly developed diabetes after the first-attack AP. Multivariate analysis showed that age [odds ratio (OR)=1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.03; P=0.045], BMI (OR=1.06; 95% CI: 1.01-1.12; P=0.018), glucose (OR=1.07; 95% CI: 1.02-1.12; P=0.008), triglyceride (OR=1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.06; P=0.035), and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (OR=1.18; 95% CI: 1.00-1.38; P=0.044) at admission were important predictors.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram is a potentially clinically useful tool for predicting new-onset diabetes, which is currently clinically unprecedented. This finding is not confined to the patients with severe AP but is also for patients who have recovered from mild AP. The nomogram must to be validated externally.