Prognostic value of numbers of metastatic lymph node in medullary thyroid carcinoma: A population-based study using the SEER 18 database

Grading medullary thyroid carcinoma on fine-needle aspiration cytology specimens with the International Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma Grading System: A cytologic-histologic correlation

BACKGROUND

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is a rare cancer of parafollicular C-cell origin. The International MTC Grading System (IMTCGS) incorporates mitotic activity, the presence of necrosis, and the Ki67 proliferation rate (PR) to classify MTCs as low or high grade. The ability to predict IMTCGS grade in cytology was assessed.

METHODS

MTCs with cytology and subsequent surgical follow-up were reviewed. Cytology slides were reviewed for mitotic figures, apoptoses, and necrosis, and a Ki67 PR was calculated when possible. Findings were correlated with final IMTCGS grade.

RESULTS

Twenty-five MTC fine-needle aspirations (FNAs) were identified, with nine identified as high grade (36%). By using a PR cutoff of 5%, Ki67 on FNA material (Ki67FNA) showed 92% concordance (n = 22 of 24) with surgical Ki67 and a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.72. Sensitivity and specificity of Ki67FNA for predicting high-grade MTC were 38% and 100%, respectively. Multiple mitotic figures were present in a single slide of 43% (n = 3 of 7) of evaluable high-grade MTCs, whereas only one of 16 low-grade MTCs showed a single mitotic figure. Definitive apoptoses were present in five of seven high-grade MTC FNAs but were absent in 16 low-grade MTCs. The sensitivity and specificity of apoptoses/necrosis on cytology for high-grade MTCs were 71% and 88%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Ki67FNA ≥5% shows low sensitivity but high specificity for predicting high-grade MTC. The presence of multiple mitotic figures in a single slide or definitive apoptotic bodies are both highly suggestive of high-grade MTC, and should warrant a close examination for necrosis and a careful Ki67 PR count.

Risk factors for cervical lymph node metastasis in the central or lateral cervical region in medullary thyroid carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Compared with other types of thyroid carcinoma, patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) are more likely to develop cervical lymph node metastasis. This study was conducted to clarify the risk factors for cervical lymph node metastasis (central lymph node metastasis or lateral cervical lymph node metastasis) in MTC by meta-analysis, and to provide evidence-based basis for the treatment and prognosis of MTC.

METHODS

The literatures related to cervical lymph node metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma were searched in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, CNKI and Wanfang databases, and statistical analysis was performed using Revman 5.3 and Stata 14.0 software.

RESULTS

A total of 28 papers were included in this paper, and meta-analysis showed that the occurrence of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in MTC patients was significantly associated with tumor size (OR = 3.07, 95%CI: 2.04-4.63, P < 0.00001), multifocality (OR = 0.29, 95%CI: 0.19-0.44, P < 0.00001), bilaterality (OR = 3.75, 95% CI: 1.95-7.14, P < 0.0001), capsular invasion (OR = 9.88, 95% CI: 5.93-16.45, P < 0.00001) and extrathyroidal extension (OR = 5.48, 95% CI: 2.61-11.51, P < 0.00001). While the occurrence of lateral cervical lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in MTC patients was strongly correlated with gender (OR = 2.97, 95%CI: 2.46-3.58, P < 0.00001), tumor size (OR = 3.88, 95%CI: 1.90-7.92, P = 0.0002 < 0.05), multifocality (OR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.35-0.51, P < 0.00001), bilaterality (OR = 2.93, 95% CI: 1.72-4.98, P < 0.0001), capsular invasion (OR = 8.44, 95% CI: 6.11-11.64, P < 0.00001), extrathyroidal extension (OR = 7.04, 95% CI: 5.54-8.94, P < 0.00001), margin of the tumor (OR = 4.47, 95% CI: 2.37-8.44, P < 0.00001), shape of the tumor (OR = 6.81, 95% CI: 3.64-12.73, P < 0.00001), preoperative calcitonin level (SMD = 1.39, 95% CI: 0.98-1.80, P < 0.00001), preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level (SMD = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.74-1.20, P < 0.00001) and CLNM (OR = 19.70, 95% CI: 14.16-27.43, P < 0.00001).

CONCLUSION

Tumor size, multifocality, bilaterality, capsular invasion and extrathyroidal extension are the main risk factors for developing CLNM in MTC patients; And risk factors for developing LLNM in MTC patients include: gender, tumor size, multifocality, bilaterality, capsular invasion, extrathyroidal extension, margin of the tumor, shape of the tumor, preoperative calcitonin level, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level and central lymph node metastasis. These risk factors can guide the individualized treatment plan and improve the prognosis of MTC patients.

Competing-risks model for predicting the prognostic value of lymph nodes in medullary thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is an infrequent form malignant tumor with a poor prognosis. Because of the influence of competitive risk, there may suffer from bias in the analysis of prognostic factors of MTC.

METHODS

By extracting the data of patients diagnosed with MTC registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1998 to 2016, we established the Cox proportional-hazards and competing-risks model to retrospectively analyze the impact of related factors on lymph nodes statistically.

RESULTS

A total of 2,435 patients were included in the analysis, of which 198 died of MTC. The results of the multifactor competing-risk model showed that the number of total lymph nodes (19-89), positive lymph nodes (1-10,11-75) and positive lymph node ratio (25%-53%,>54%), age (46-60,>61), chemotherapy, mode of radiotherapy (others), tumor size(2-4cm,>4cm), number of lesions greater than 1 were poor prognostic factors for MTC. For the number of total lymph nodes, unlike the multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model results, we found that it became an independent risk factor after excluding competitive risk factors. Competitive risk factors have little effect on the number of positive lymph nodes. For the proportion of positive lymph nodes, we found that after excluding competitive risk factors, the Cox proportional-hazards model overestimates its impact on prognosis. The competitive risk model is often more accurate in analyzing the effects of prognostic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

After excluding the competitive risk, the number of lymph nodes, the number of positive and the positive proportion are the poor prognostic factors of medullary thyroid cancer, which can help clinicians more accurately evaluate the prognosis of patients with medullary thyroid cancer and provide a reference for treatment decision-making.

Independent Validation of the International Grading System for Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Single Institution Experience

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), an uncommon C cell thyroid malignancy, accounts for a disproportionate number of thyroid cancer deaths. To predict MTC clinical behavior, the recent international MTC grading system (IMTCGS) was published combining features from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and Royal North Shore Hospital grading systems that incorporates mitotic count, necrosis, and Ki67 proliferative index (Ki67PI). The IMTCGS appears promising, but independent validation data are limited. Here, we applied the IMTCGS to our institutional MTC cohort and assessed its ability to predict clinical outcomes. Our cohort comprised 87 MTCs (30 germline and 57 sporadic). Slides for each case were reviewed by 2 pathologists and histologic features recorded. Ki67 immunostaining was performed on all cases. Each MTC was graded with the IMTCGS based on tumor necrosis, Ki67PI, and mitotic count. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the impact of various clinical and pathological data on disease outcomes, including overall survival (OS), disease-free survival, disease-specific survival (DSS), and distant metastasis-free survival. In our MTC cohort, 18.4% (n = 16/87) were IMTCGS high grade. IMTCGS grade was strongly prognostic for OS, disease-free survival, DSS, and distant metastasis-free survival on univariate analysis and multivariable analysis in both the entire MTC cohort and in the sporadic subset. Among the individual IMTCGS parameters, while all 3 were associated with poorer survival outcomes on univariate analysis, necrosis had the strongest association with all survival parameters on multivariable analysis, whereas Ki67PI or mitotic count was associated only with OS and DSS. This retrospective study independently demonstrates that the IMTCGS is valid for grading MTCs. Our findings support incorporating IMTCGS into routine pathology practice. IMTCGS grading may help clinicians to better predict the prognosis of MTC. Future studies may shed light on how MTC grading should impact treatment protocols.

A prediction model for the 5-year, 10-year and 20-year mortality of medullary thyroid carcinoma patients based on lymph node ratio and other predictors

Aim

To explore the predictive value of lymph node ratio (LNR) for the prognosis of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) patients, and constructed prediction models for the 5-year, 10-year and 20-year mortality of MTC patients based on LNR and other predictors.

Methods

This cohort study extracted the data of 2,093 MTC patients aged ≥18 years undergoing total thyroidectomy and neck lymph nodes dissection. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were performed to compare survival curves between LNR < 15% group and LNR ≥ 15% group. All data was divided into the training set (n = 1,465) and the testing set (n = 628). The random survival forest model was constructed in the training set and validated in the testing set. The area under the curve (AUC) was employed for evaluating the predictive ability of the model.

Results

The 5-year, 10-year and 20-year overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) of MTC patients with LNR <15% were higher than those with LNR ≥15%. The OS was 46% and the CSS was 75% after 20 years' follow-up. The AUC of the model for the 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year OS in MTC patients was 0.878 (95%CI: 0.856-0.900), 0.859 (95%CI: 0.838-0.879) and 0.843 (95%CI: 0.823-0.862) in the training set and 0.845 (95%CI: 0.807-0.883), 0.841 (95%CI: 0.807-0.875) and 0.841 (95%CI: 0.811-0.872) in the testing set. In the training set, the AUCs were 0.869 (95%CI: 0.845-0.892), 0.843 (95%CI: 0.821-0.865), 0.819 (95%CI: 0.798-0.840) for the 5-year, 10-year and 20-year CCS in MTC patients, respectively. In the testing set, the AUCs were 0.857 (95%CI: 0.822-0.892), 0.839 (95%CI: 0.805-0.873) and 0.826 (95%CI: 0.794-0.857) for the 5-year CCS, 10-year CCS and 20-year CCS in MTC patients, respectively.

Conclusion

The models displayed good predictive performance, which might help identify MTC patients might have poor outcomes and appropriate interventions should be applied in these patients.

Prognostic value of LODDS in medullary thyroid carcinoma based on competing risk model and propensity score matching analysis

Log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) is an independent prognostic factor for patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). However, the optimal cutoff value for LODDS needs to be further confirmed, and previous studies have ignored the prevalent competing events of non-cancer deaths among patients with MTC, thus possibly overestimating the risk of death from cancer. The information of patients with MTC who underwent total thyroidectomy was collected from SEER database. Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to determine the optimal cutoff for LODDS. Moreover, patients' overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were determined using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards model. The competing risk models (CRM) were used to reduce the effect of competing events, and propensity score matching was performed to balance the confounding factors between groups. The cutoff value of LODDS determined by RCS was - 1.004, and a total of 2314 patients with MTC were recruited. In the CRM after PSM, factors such as age over 55 years at diagnosis, being male, treatment with chemotherapy or radiotherapy, unknown tumor size, and LODDS > - 1.004 were significantly associated with poor prognosis of patients both in univariate and multivariate analyses, while the presence of multifocal tumor indicated better prognosis. Patients with MTC who were over 55 years old at diagnosis, were male, received chemotherapy or radiation, had an unclear initial tumor size, and had LODDS > - 1.004 had a worse prognosis than patients with multifocal tumor.

Inclusion of the Number of Metastatic Lymph Nodes in the Staging System for Medullary Thyroid Cancer: Validating a Modified American Joint Committee on Cancer Tumor-Node-Metastasis Staging System

Background: The current American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system (8th edition) for medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) was originally extrapolated from the staging system for differentiated thyroid cancer. However, the current staging system does not accurately predict the prognosis of patients with MTC. Patients and Methods: The present study was based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and validated by multicenter data from the Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Xuzhou City Central Hospital, and Suzhou Ninth People's Hospital. Hazard ratio with its 95% confidence interval [CI] was estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. The concordance index (C-index) was used to evaluate the discrimination accuracy of the current AJCC tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system and the modified AJCC (mAJCC) TNM staging system. Results: A total of 1175 MTC patients were selected from the SEER database and 312 from the three hospitals in China. We redefined the N category according to the number of metastatic lymph nodes (LNs) as follows: N'0 category (0 metastatic LNs), N'1 category (1-9 metastatic LNs), and N'2 category (≥10 metastatic LNs). The four distinct tumor stages were reclassified in the mAJCC staging system as follows: stage I (T1-4N'0M0, T1N'1M0), stage II (T2-3N'1M0, T1N'2M0), stage III (T4N'1M0, T2-4N'2M0), and stage IV (TanyN'anyM1). The C-index of the current AJCC staging system and the mAJCC staging system was 0.72 [CI, 0.67-0.78] and 0.78 [CI, 0.73-0.84], respectively. Similar results were observed in the survival analysis of the multicenter data set. Conclusions: The mAJCC staging system could discriminate the prognosis of MTC patients more effectively than the current AJCC staging system, indicating that it is feasible and appropriate to modify the current AJCC staging system by introducing the number of metastatic LNs instead of the location of LNs. These findings might be adopted in the next edition of the AJCC staging system and be used to guide clinical practice.

Clinical Characteristics, Surgical Management, and Prognostic Factors of Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Retrospective, Single-Center Study

Purpose: Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is a rare neuroendocrine malignancy with relatively early lymphatic metastatic spread. The clinical features of MTC remain controversial owing to the low incidence rate. This study aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics, prognostic factors, and long-term follow-up of MTC. Methods: Medical records of MTC patients treated at our hospital between December 2000 and November 2020 were reviewed retrospectively. Clinicopathologic features of MTC were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Cumulative survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: In total, 152 patients with MTC were included. The rates of central and lateral lymph node metastases (LNM) were 52.0% and 42.8%, respectively. All patients were followed up with a median follow-up time of 43.5 (17.0−76.3) months. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified two independent factors associated with progressive disease. They were lateral LNM (p < 0.001) and lymph node ratio (LNR) >1/3 (p = 0.009). The 5-, 10-, and 15-year cumulative overall survival (OS) rates of MTC were 88.2%, 83.1%, and 76.2%, respectively. The 5-, 10-, and 15-year cumulative disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 61.8%, 48.6%, and 38.2%, respectively. Patients with stage I, II, and III disease had significantly longer OS and DFS than those with stage IV disease (p < 0.001). Conclusion: MTC is a rare endocrine malignancy and LNM is common. Patients with lateral LNM and LNR >1/3 are more likely to develop progressive disease. The long-term OS rates of MTC are good, but long-term DFS rates are poor.

Metastatic Lymph Node Ratio for Predicting Recurrence in Medullary Thyroid Cancer

Simple Summary

The anatomical staging system for thyroid cancer only contains categories for lymph node compartments. The metastatic lymph node ratio (LNR), which is the ratio of metastasized lymph nodes to the total number of evaluated lymph nodes, is suggested as a quantitative evaluation tool for lymph node metastasis in patients with medullary thyroid cancer in this study. The initial stratification implemented in this study was helpful in predicting structural recurrence, and LNR was identified as a predictor of disease-free survival.

Abstract

The lymph node ratio (LNR) has been investigated as a prognostic factor in many different types of cancers, including differentiated thyroid cancer; however, reports regarding medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) are limited. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate LNR as a risk factor for structural recurrence in patients with MTC. Medical records of patients treated for MTC in a single tertiary center between 1995 and 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. LNR is defined as the number of metastatic lymph nodes or lymph node metastases (LNM) divided by the number of retrieved lymph nodes or lymph node yield (LNY). In the survival analysis, recurrence-free survival was defined as the time from the date of total thyroidectomy to recurrence or last follow-up. To identify risk factors influencing structural recurrence, univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used. A total of 132 patients were enrolled. The mean age of study participants was 49.7 years, and 86 patients (65%) were women. Structural recurrence was identified in 39 patients at the end of the study period, and the median follow-up period was 8.7 years. In univariable analyses, gross extra thyroidal extension, N stage, postoperative serum calcitonin and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, and LNR were significant (p < 0.05) predictors of structural recurrence. In multivariable analysis, postoperative serum calcitonin, postoperative serum CEA, and LNR were identified as a predictor of disease-free survival (p < 0.05). LNR can potentially predict structural recurrence as a quantitative evaluation tool for lymph node metastasis in patients with MTC.

Canine anal sac gland carcinoma with regional lymph node metastases treated with sacculectomy and lymphadenectomy: Outcome and possible prognostic factors

The staging system commonly used in canine anal sac gland carcinoma (ASGC) is a revised Tumour-Node-Metastasis (TNM) system published in 2007. This staging system consists in four stages and, for dogs with nodal metastases, the size of the metastatic lymph node (mLN) defines the N stage. However, we hypothesise that (1) the mLN size has no prognostic significance when the mLN can be excised, (2) a high number of mLNs is associated with poorer prognosis and (3) the measurement of the mLN on imaging is not reproducible. To investigate these hypotheses, medical records and diagnostic images of dogs with ASGC and mLN, treated with sacculectomy and lymphadenectomy, with or without chemotherapy, were reviewed. Interobserver variability for mLN measurement was assessed. Prognostic factors including mLN size and number were investigated. Time to documented progression (TDP) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were evaluated. Progression-free interval (PFI) was analysed with interval-censored data analysis. Fifty-seven dogs were included. The median PFI, TDP and DSS were 110 (95%CI 61.5-185.5), 196 (95%CI 162-283) and 340 days (95%CI 321-471), respectively. For measurement of the largest mLN, interobserver agreement was excellent but limits of agreement reached 39.7%. Neither the size of the largest mLN nor the use of adjuvant chemotherapy were associated with outcome. The number of mLNs was associated with outcome and having more than four mLNs was associated with shorter PFI (p < .001), TDP (p = .004) and DSS (p < .001). While mLN size measurement was not consistently reproducible and did not influence outcome in our cohort, number of mLNs did. Further studies are required for development of a revised staging system.

Similar Stage-dependent Survival and Outcome in Sporadic and Hereditary Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma

CONTEXT

Long-term data are scarce on large cohorts with sporadic (sMTC) and hereditary medullary thyroid carcinoma (hMTC).

OBJECTIVES

To compare long-term disease-specific survival (DSS) and outcomes between sMTC and hMTC groups.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis.

SETTING

German tertiary referral center.

PATIENTS

A total of 673 patients with MTC that underwent surgery from January 1974 to July 2019.

INTERVENTION

None (observational study).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Differences between sMTC and hMTC in long-term, stage-dependent survival and outcomes.

RESULTS

Surgery was performed at median ages of 49 years for sMTC (n = 477, 44% male) and 29 years for hMTC (n = 196, 43% male; P < 0.0001). The mean follow-up times were 9.2 ± 8.0 (sMTC) and 14.6 ± 10.3 years (hMTC). Age and tumor stage at diagnosis were significantly different between the 2 groups (P < 0.0001). The sMTC and hMTC groups had different overall DSS (log rank, P = 0.0183), but similar stage-dependent DSS (log rank, P = 0.1242-0.8981). In a multivariate analysis, sMTC and hMTC did not differ in DSS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.56; 95% CI, 0.94-2.57), but in both groups, a worse DSS was significantly associated with age at diagnosis (HR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05), male sex (HR = 0.49; 95% CI, 0.32-0.76), and stages III and IV at diagnosis (HR = 20.00; 95% CI, 2.74-145.91 and HR = 97.47; 95% CI, 13.07-726.67, respectively). The groups had significantly different (P < 0.0001) outcomes (i.e., cured, minimal residual disease, structural detectable disease, and death), but similar stage-dependent outcomes (P = 0.9449-0.0511), except for stage III (P = 0.0489).

CONCLUSION

Patients with sMTC and hMTC had different ages of onset, but similar stage-dependent DSS and outcomes after the MTC diagnosis. This finding suggested that tumor behavior was similar in sMTC and hMTC.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC): a comparison of predictive performance of multiple classifiers modeling to identify cervical lymph node metastases before surgery

PURPOSE

To compare predictive efficiency of multiple classifiers modeling and establish a combined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics model for identifying lymph node (LN) metastases of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) preoperatively.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis based on the preoperative MRI scans of 109 PTC patients including 77 patients with LN metastases and 32 patients without metastases was conducted, and we divided enroll cases into trained group and validation group. Radiomics signatures were selected from fat-suppressed T2-weighted MRI images, and the optimal characteristics were confirmed by spearman correlation test, hypothesis testing and random forest methods, and then, eight predictive models were constructed by eight classifiers. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis were performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the models.

RESULTS

The area under the curve (AUC) of ROC based on MRI texture diagnosed LN status by naked eye was 0.739 (sensitivity = 0.571, specificity = 0.906). Based on the 5 optimal signatures, the best AUC of MRI radiomics model by logistics regression classifier had a considerable prediction performance with AUCs 0.805 in trained group and 0.760 in validation group, respectively, and a combination of best radiomics model with visual diagnosis of MRI texture had a high AUC as 0.969 (sensitivity = 0.938, specificity = 1.000), suggesting combined model had a preferable diagnostic efficiency in evaluating LN metastases of PTC.

CONCLUSION

Our combined radiomics model with visual diagnosis could be a potentially effective strategy to preoperatively predict LN metastases in PTC patients before clinical intervention.

Recurrent medullary thyroid carcinoma treated with percutaneous ultrasound-guided radiofrequency ablation: A case report

BACKGROUND

Treatment for neck lymph node metastases after adequate initial surgery in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) has been controversial. Ultrasound (US)-guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) has been widely used in recurrent well-differentiated thyroid carcinoma. Here, we report for the first time the use of RFA in a patient with recurrent MTC.

CASE SUMMARY

We report the case of a 56-year-old woman with cervical lymph node metastases of MTC. Four years previously, she had undergone a total thyroidectomy and neck lymph node dissection. A neck US revealed many enlarged nodes during the follow-up period. Moreover, the serum calcitonin jumped to 198.17 pg/mL, which strongly indicated the recurrence of MTC. Subsequently, two metastatic lymph nodes were confirmed by US-guided fine-needle aspiration-cytology and fine-needle aspiration-calcitonin, and then the patient was treated with RFA. Four months later, the neck US and a contrast-enhanced US showed obvious shrinkage in the ablation zones, and the serum calcitonin dropped to 11.80 pg/mL.

CONCLUSION

This case suggests that RFA may be an effective and safe treatment for local recurrent MTC.

Construction and Validation of a Nomogram Based on the Log Odds of Positive Lymph Nodes to Predict the Prognosis of Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma After Surgery

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to explore the prognostic impact that the log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) has on medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) and to develop a nomogram incorporating LODDS to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of MTC.

METHODS

Data from 1110 MTC patients after total thyroidectomy were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and divided into training and validation cohorts. The prognostic efficiency of N status from the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system, the number of positive lymph nodes (PLNN), and LODDS were compared using the Harrell concordance index (C-index), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). A multivariate Cox analysis was performed to determine the independent prognostic factors, and a nomogram based on LODDS was constructed. The nomogram's performance was assessed with the C-index, AUC, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Among the three lymph node (LN) staging systems, LODDS showed the highest accuracy in predicting CSS for MTC. In the training cohort, the C-index of the LODDS-based nomogram was 0.895. The AUCs were 0.949, 0.917, 0.925, and 0.901 for predicting 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year CSS, respectively. The calibration plots and DCA showed the superior clinical applicability of the nomogram. These results were verified in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

As an independent prognostic factor for MTC, LODDS demonstrated superior prognostic efficiency over N status and PLNN. This LODDS-based nomogram yielded better performance than the AJCC tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system in predicting CSS after surgery for MTC.

Initial treatment of patients with thyroid cancer: Outcomes and factors associated with care at academic versus nonacademic cancer centers

BACKGROUND

Factors associated with receiving initial care for thyroid cancer (TC) at academic centers (ACs) versus nonacademic centers (NACs) and their impact on patient outcomes have not been reported.

METHODS

The National Cancer Database with TC cases from 2004 to 2013 was evaluated for association of type of center for initial care with socioeconomic factors and disease and treatment characteristics, as well as overall survival (OS; all-cause mortality).

RESULTS

The patients with TC (n = 200,824) included were predominantly women (74%), non-Hispanic Whites (85%), and from metro areas (84%). Sixty percent received initial care at a NAC. There were no significant differences between treatment groups by age or gender. Among those treated at an AC, a higher proportion belonged to racial/ethnic minorities (16.5%) versus at a NAC (11.6%). Hormone therapy was used more in an AC versus a NAC (60% vs 47%). Patients with all TC pathologies combined had a lower likelihood of death when they received initial care at an AC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.948; P = .0006). Among individual pathologic subtypes, a lower likelihood of death was noted when initial care was received at an AC for follicular (HR, 0.828, P = .0010) and Hurthle cell cancers (HR, 792; P = .0008), as well as stage II papillary thyroid cancer (HR, 0.828; P = .0026), but not for other histopathologic subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Initial care at an AC was associated with lower likelihood of death for patients with TC, especially for those with follicular or Hurthle cell subtypes. Optimal resource use with consideration of patients' socioeconomic and demographic factors is imperative to ensure the most appropriate management of patients with TC in various treatment settings.

Nodal disease burden and outcome of medullary thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is a rare malignancy with high incidence of cervical lymph node (CLN) metastasis. We investigated the impact of nodal disease burden on survival.

METHODS

We searched the National Cancer Database for MTC patients treated surgically. Impact of nodal metastasis on survival was analyzed using Cox univariable and multivariable regression.

RESULTS

We identified 2627 patients from 2004 to 2015. Positive CLNs were identified in 1433 (54.5%), and 542 (20.6%) had >10 CLN+. Overall survival was 94.5% and 89.6% at 3 and 5 years. Patients with 11 to 20 CLN+ had significantly worse survival than patients with 1 to 10 CLN+ in univariable and multivariable analyses (HR = 3.56 (2.31-5.50) vs 2.26 (1.60-3.20); P < .0001). The ratio of positive to dissected CLN was associated with overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher burden of nodal disease is associated with worse survival in MTC. The number of positive nodes could be a valuable prognosticator in addition to the current staging system.

New proposed tumor-node-metastasis staging system for medullary thyroid carcinoma based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database

BACKGROUND

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) has been separated into its own chapter in the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. However, controversies still exist for the staging of MTC. This study aimed to identify prognostic differences among patients with MTC to define a more accurate staging system.

METHODS

Data on cancer-specific survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2010 and 2014 were used for this study. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves, Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, and mortality per 1000-person-years were used to evaluate the mortality rate to create the new staging system.

RESULTS

A total of 960 cases were included in this analysis. The mortality rates of 24 different groups, which were classified using T stage (T1-4), N stage (N0-1b), and M stage (M0-1) were assessed using K-M curves. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and mortality per 1000-person-years were used to classify patients, as stage I (T1-3N0-1aM0, 654, 68.34%), stage II (T1-3N1bM0, 181, 18.91%), stage III (T4N0-1bM0, 58, 6.06%), and stage IV (T1-4N0-1bM1, 64, 6.69%). The hazard ratios of stages II, III, and IV, using stage I as a reference, were 5.281 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.236-22.562), 20.603 (95% CI, 4.400-96.467), and 55.717 (95% CI, 14.307-216.988), respectively. The mortality rates per 1000-person-years of stages I, II, III, and IV were 2.036 (95% CI, 0.657-6.312), 14.867 (95% CI, 6.679-33.092), 98.287 (95% CI, 54.432-177.478), and 224.199 (95% CI, 146.180-343.860), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the current AJCC tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system for MTC, this new proposed TNM staging system, which is based on cancer-specific mortality rate analysis, provides more accurate risk stratification and can ensure more rational treatment measures.