Downregulation of serum survivin correlates with increased inflammation, enhanced disease severity and worse prognosis in sepsis patients

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A NOMOGRAM FOR PREDICTING 28-DAY IN-HOSPITAL MORTALITY IN SEPSIS PATIENTS BASED ON AN OPTIMIZED ACUTE PHYSIOLOGY AND CHRONIC HEALTH EVALUATION II SCORE

ABSTRACT

Purpose : The objective of this study is to establish a nomogram that correlates optimized Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score with sepsis-related indicators, aiming to provide a robust model for early prediction of sepsis prognosis in clinical practice and serve as a valuable reference for improved diagnosis and treatment strategies. Methods : This retrospective study extracted sepsis patients meeting the inclusion criteria from the MIMIC-IV database to form the training group. An optimized APACHE II score integrated with relevant indicators was developed using a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of sepsis patients. External validation was conducted using data from the intensive care unit at Lanzhou University Second Hospital. Results : The study enrolled 1805 patients in the training cohort and 203 patients in the validation cohort. A multifactor analysis was conducted to identify factors affecting patient mortality within 28 days, resulting in the development of an optimized score by simplifying evaluation indicators from APACHE II score. The results showed that the optimized score (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.715) had a higher area under receiver operating characteristic curve than Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (AUC = 0.637) but slightly lower than APACHE II score (AUC = 0.720). Significant indicators identified through multifactor analysis included platelet count, total bilirubin level, albumin level, prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, mechanical ventilation use and renal replacement therapy use. These seven indicators were combined with optimized score to construct a nomogram based on these seven indicators. The nomogram demonstrated good clinical predictive value in both training cohort (AUC = 0.803) and validation cohort (AUC = 0.750). Calibration curves and decision curve analyses also confirmed its good predictive ability, surpassing the APACHE II score and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score in identifying high-risk patients. Conclusions : The nomogram was established in this study using the MIMIC-IV database and validated with external data, demonstrating its robust discriminability, calibration, and clinical practicability for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients. These findings aim to provide substantial support for clinicians' decision making.

Association between septic patient mortality and blood survivin concentrations

OBJECTIVE

Survivin is a member of inhibitors of apoptosis proteins family. There are not data about the association between mortality of septic patients and blood survivin concentrations. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine whether exist that association.

DESIGN

Observational and prospective study.

SETTING

Three Spanish Intensive Care Units.

PATIENTS

Patients with sepsis or septic shock according to Sepsis-3 Consensus criteria.

INTERVENTIONS

Serum survivin concentrations were determined at moment of sepsis diagnosis.

MAIN VARIABLE OF INTEREST

Mortality at 30 days.

RESULTS

A total of 204 patients were included in the study, of which 75 (36.8%) died in the first 30 days. Lower age (p<0.001), serum lactic acid levels (p=0.001), rate of septic shock (p=0.001) and SOFA (p<0.001), and higher serum survivin levels (p=0.001) exhibited surviving (n=129) than non-surviving patients (n=75). We found in multiple logistic regression analysis an association between serum survivin concentrations and mortality independently of SOFA, lactic acid, age, INR, activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) and empiric antimicrobial treatment adequate (OR=0.968; 95% CI=0.946-0.990; p=0.005), and also independently of APACHE-II, lactic acid, platelet, INR, aPTT and empiric antimicrobial treatment adequate (OR=0.966; 95% CI=0.943-0.989; p=0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

There is an association between septic patient mortality and low blood survivin concentrations.

Biomarkers for sepsis: more than just fever and leukocytosis-a narrative review

A biomarker describes a measurable indicator of a patient's clinical condition that can be measured accurately and reproducibly. Biomarkers offer utility for diagnosis, prognosis, early disease recognition, risk stratification, appropriate treatment (theranostics), and trial enrichment for patients with sepsis or suspected sepsis. In this narrative review, we aim to answer the question, "Do biomarkers in patients with sepsis or septic shock predict mortality, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), or organ dysfunction?" We also discuss the role of pro- and anti-inflammatory biomarkers and biomarkers associated with intestinal permeability, endothelial injury, organ dysfunction, blood-brain barrier (BBB) breakdown, brain injury, and short and long-term mortality. For sepsis, a range of biomarkers is identified, including fluid phase pattern recognition molecules (PRMs), complement system, cytokines, chemokines, damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs), non-coding RNAs, miRNAs, cell membrane receptors, cell proteins, metabolites, and soluble receptors. We also provide an overview of immune response biomarkers that can help identify or differentiate between systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), sepsis, septic shock, and sepsis-associated encephalopathy. However, significant work is needed to identify the optimal combinations of biomarkers that can augment diagnosis, treatment, and good patient outcomes.