Comparison of HAS-BLED with other risk models for predicting the bleeding risk in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation: A PRISMA-compliant article

Risk scores for major bleeding from direct oral anticoagulants: comparing predictive performance in patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Despite direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) being safer than warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), major bleeding concerns persist. Most bleeding risk scores predate DOAC approval.

Objectives

This study aimed to compare the Age, history of Bleeding, and non-bleeding related Hospitalisation [ABH] score's performance-derived for DOAC-treated patients-with those of 5 other scores (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation [ATRIA], Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly [>65 years], Drugs/alcohol concomitantly [HAS-BLED], Hepatic, Hepatic or Renal Disease, Ethanol Abuse, Malignancy, Older Age, Reduced Platelet Count or Function, Re-Bleeding, Hypertension, Anemia, Genetic Factors, Excessive Fall Risk and Stroke [HEMORR2HAGES], Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation [ORBIT-AF], and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 [doubled], Diabetes, Stroke [doubled]-Vascular disease, Age 65-74, Sex category [CHA2DS2-VASc]) in predicting DOAC-related major bleeding in patients with AF.

Methods

In this retrospective study of 2364 patients with nonvalvular AF on rivaroxaban or apixaban (median age, 68.3 years; 32.1% women), International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis-defined major bleeding (incidence, 4.1%; n = 97) was analyzed. C-statistics from time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for continuous risk scores were the primary comparison metric, but other metrics, such as decision curves, were also compared.

Results

At 100 days, C-statistics were highest for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA (0.62 and 0.61, respectively, with other scores having an area under the ROC curve of <0.60); some significant differences favored ORBIT-AF. At 1100 days, C-statistics remained highest for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA (0.62 and 0.61, respectively, with other scores having an area under the ROC curve of <0.60 again), and ORBIT-AF had significantly higher C-statistics than those for all other risk scores (P < .05), except for ATRIA. At 2100 days, all C-statistics were <0.60 with no significant differences. Decision curves showed the greatest net benefit for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA at 100 days and for ATRIA at 1100 days, with no discernible net benefit for any of the scores at 2100 days.

Conclusion

ORBIT-AF and ATRIA provided the best bleeding risk prediction within the first 1100 days. None of the 6 bleeding risk scores provided predictive benefit over 2100 days of DOAC treatment.

Impact of Cerebral Microbleeds in Stroke Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVES

Cerebral microbleeds are associated with the risks of ischemic stroke and intracranial hemorrhage, causing clinical dilemmas for antithrombotic treatment decisions. We aimed to evaluate the risks of intracranial hemorrhage and ischemic stroke associated with microbleeds in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with vitamin K antagonists, direct oral anticoagulants, antiplatelets, and combination therapy (i.e. concurrent oral anticoagulant and antiplatelet).

METHODS

We included patients with documented atrial fibrillation from the pooled individual patient data analysis by the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network. Risks of subsequent intracranial hemorrhage and ischemic stroke were compared between patients with and without microbleeds, stratified by antithrombotic use.

RESULTS

A total of 7,839 patients were included. The presence of microbleeds was associated with an increased relative risk of intracranial hemorrhage (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.74, 95% confidence interval = 1.76-4.26) and ischemic stroke (aHR = 1.29, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.59). For the entire cohort, the absolute incidence of ischemic stroke was higher than intracranial hemorrhage regardless of microbleed burden. However, for the subgroup of patients taking combination of anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy, the absolute risk of intracranial hemorrhage exceeded that of ischemic stroke in those with 2 to 4 microbleeds (25 vs 12 per 1,000 patient-years) and ≥ 11 microbleeds (94 vs 48 per 1,000 patient-years).

INTERPRETATION

Patients with atrial fibrillation and high burden of microbleeds receiving combination therapy have a tendency of higher rate of intracranial hemorrhage than ischemic stroke, with potential for net harm. Further studies are needed to help optimize stroke preventive strategies in this high-risk group. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:61-74.

HAS-BLED Score for Prediction of Bleeding and Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

INTRODUCTION

Bleeding after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is associated with increased mortality. The predictive value of the HAS-BLED score in TAVR patients is still to be evaluated. We assessed the value of the HAS-BLED score to predict in-hospital bleeding and mortality after TAVR and the impact of diferent renal impairment definitions on the predictive value of the score system.

METHODS

We retrospectively included 574 patients who underwent TAVR at a single center. Study outcomes were 30-day mortality and the composite endpoint of major and life-threatening bleeding as defined by The Valve Academic Research Consortium-2. The predictive value of the HAS-BLED score was calculated and compared to a modified model. The performance of the score was compared using two definitions of renal impairment. Model discrimination was tested using C-statistic and the Net Reclassification Index.

RESULTS

Bleeding occurred in 78 patients (13.59%). HAS-BLED category 3 was a significant predictor of bleeding (OR: 1.99 ]1.18- 3.37], C-index: 0.56, P=0.01). C-index increased to 0.64 after adding body surface area and extracardiac arteriopathy to the model. The Net Reclassification Index showed an increase in the predic tive value of the model by 11.4% (P=0.002). The C-index increased to 0.61 using renal impairment definition based on creatinine clearance. Operative mortality was significantly associated with the HAS-BLED score (OR: 7.54 [95% CI: 2.73- 20.82], C-index: 0.73, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The HAS-BLED score could be a good predictor of in-hospital mortality after TAVR. Its predictive value for bleeding was poor but improved by adding procedure-specific factors and using creatinine clearance to define renal impairment.

Evaluation of ABC Bleeding Score and SAMe-TT2R2 Score on the Risk of Bleeding after Anticoagulation in Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Complicated with Coronary Heart Disease

Objective

To explore the predictive value of ABC bleeding score and SAMe-TT2R2 score on the risk of bleeding in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) complicated with coronary heart disease (CHD) after anticoagulation.

Methods

149 patients with NVAF complicated with CHD were followed up in our hospital for one year. The bleeding events during the follow-up period were observed, the ABC bleeding score and SAMe-TT2R2 score were calculated, the predictive value of the two scoring methods for the main bleeding risk was analyzed by the ROC curve, and the AUC area under the ROC curve of the two scoring methods was compared by the Delong test.

Results

There were 32 bleeding events during the follow-up period. The AUC of ABC bleeding score and SAMe-TT2R2 score were 0.775 (P < 0.01) and 0.624 (P < 0.05), respectively. The Delong test showed that the AUC of ABC bleeding score was significantly higher than that of SAMe-TT2R2 score (d = 2.177, P < 0.05).

Conclusion

Both the ABC bleeding score and SAMe-TT2R2 score can predict the risk of bleeding after anticoagulation in patients with NVAF and CHD. The critical value of the SAMe-TT2R2 score for predicting bleeding events in patients with NVAF and CHD may need to be increased to 4 or 5, and the prediction ability of ABC bleeding score is significantly better than that of the SAMe-TT2R2 score.

Comparison of HAS-BLED and ORBIT Bleeding Risk Scores in AF Patients treated with NOACs: A Report from the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry

INTRODUCTION

Bleeding risk assessment is recommended in guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation (AF). HAS-BLED score was proposed prior to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) and has been suggested that the ORBIT score may be superior in predicting bleeds in NOAC users. We aimed to compare the HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores in contemporary AF patients treated with NOACs.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry. HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores were computed based on original schemes. The primary outcome was the occurrence of Major Bleeding (MB). A total of 3018 patients (median age 70; 39.6% females) were included: median [IQR] HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores were 1 [1-2] and 1 [0-2], respectively; 356 (11.8%) patients were at high risk for MB using HAS-BLED (≥3) and 123 (4.1%) using ORBIT (≥4). Overall, 60 (2.0%) MB events were recorded, with an incidence of 1.1 per 100 patient-years.Both HAS-BLED and ORBIT were associated with outcome, modestly predicting MB (AUC 0.653, 95% CI 0.593-0.714 and AUC 0.601, 95% CI 0.526-0.677, respectively). Calibration plots showed that both scores were poorly calibrated, particularly the ORBIT score, which showed consistent poorer calibration. Time-dependent reclassification analysis showed a trend towards incorrect lower risk reclassification using ORBIT compared to HAS-BLED.

CONCLUSION

In this real-life contemporary cohort of AF patients treated with NOACs, the ORBIT score did not provide reclassification improvement, showing even poorer calibration compared to HAS-BLED. Our findings do not support the preferential use of ORBIT in NOAC-treated AF patients.