Reverse triage: more than just another method

Predicting whether patients in an acute medical unit are physiologically fit-for-discharge using machine learning: A proof-of-concept

INTRODUCTION

Delays in discharging patients from Acute Medical Units hamper patient flows throughout the hospital. The decision to discharge a patient is mainly based on the patients' physiological condition, but may vary between physicians. An objective decision-support system based on patients' physiological data may help minimizing unnecessary delays in discharge. The aim of this proof-of-concept study is to assess the feasibility of predicting whether patients in an Acute Medical Unit are physiologically fit-for-discharge using machine learning with commonly available hospital data. Furthermore, this study investigated how long before actual time of discharge from the Acute Medical Unit we could predict discharge fitness. Also, the predictive importance of features extracted from these data was assessed.

METHODS

Electronic Medical Records of patients who participated in a Randomized Controlled Trial conducted in an Acute Medical Unit were used retrospectively (N = 199). Only commonly available hospital data were used. Logistic Regression and Random Forest models were applied to predict every hour whether patients were physiologically fit-for-discharge. Nested 5-fold cross-validation with 5 repeats was used to optimize the model hyperparameters and to estimate the predictive performances.

RESULTS

Physiological discharge fitness was predictable with reasonable performance for Logistic Regression (mean AUROC: 0.67) and Random Forest (mean AUROC: 0.69). For an intuitively chosen classification threshold of 0.8, mean specificity was 93.3 % and sensitivity 14.1 %. Models could predict physiological discharge fitness more than 24 h earlier than actual time of discharge for most patients who were correctly predicted to be fit-for-discharge. Patient characteristics, vital signs and laboratory results were shown to be important predictors.

CONCLUSION

This proof-of-concept study showed that it is feasible to predict with machine learning whether patients in an Acute Medical Unit are physiologically fit-for-discharge using commonly available hospital data.

Evaluation of score-based tertiary triage policies during the COVID-19 pandemic: simulation study with real-world intensive care data

OBJECTIVE

The explicit prohibition of discontinuing intensive care unit (ICU) treatment that has already begun by the newly established German Triage Act in favor of new patients with better prognoses (tertiary triage) under crisis conditions may prevent saving as many patients as possible and therefore may violate the international well-accepted premise of undertaking the "best for the most" patients. During the COVID-19 pandemic, authorities set up lockdown measures and infection-prevention strategies to avoid an overburdened health-care system. In cases of situational overload of ICU resources, when transporting options are exhausted, the question of a tertiary triage of patients arises.

METHODS

We provide data-driven analyses of score- and non-score-based tertiary triage policies using simulation and real-world electronic health record data in a COVID-19 setting. Ten different triage policies, for example, based on the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II), are compared based on the resulting mortality in the ICU and inferential statistics.

RESULTS

Our study shows that score-based tertiary triage policies outperform non-score-based tertiary triage policies including compliance with the German Triage Act. Based on our simulation model, a SAPS II score-based tertiary triage policy reduces mortality in the ICU by up to 18 percentage points. The longer the queue of critical care patients waiting for ICU treatment and the larger the maximum number of patients subject to tertiary triage, the greater the effect on the reduction of mortality in the ICU.

CONCLUSION

A SAPS II score-based tertiary triage policy was superior in our simulation model. Random allocation or "first come, first served" policies yield the lowest survival rates, as will adherence to the new German Triage Act. An interdisciplinary discussion including an ethical and legal perspective is important for the social interpretation of our data-driven results.

Overcrowding in emergency departments: an overview of reviews describing global solutions and their outcomes

Emergency Department (ED) crowding is defined as a situation wherein the demands of emergency services overcome the ability of a department to provide high-quality care within an appropriate time frame. There is a need for solutions, as the harms of crowding impact patients, staff, and healthcare spending. An overview of ED crowding was previously published by our group, which outlines these global issues. The problem of overcrowding in emergency departments has emerged as a global public health concern, and several healthcare agencies have addressed the issue and proposed possible solutions at each level of emergency care. There is no current literature summarizing the extensive research on interventions and solutions, thus there is a need for data synthesis to inform policymakers in this field. The aim of this overview was to summarize the interventions at each level of emergency care: input, throughput, and output. The methodology was supported by the current PRIOR statement for an overview of reviews. The study summarized twenty-seven full-text systematic reviews, which encompassed three hundred and eight primary studies. The results of the summary displayed a requirement for increasing studies in input and output interventions, as these showed the best outcomes with regard to ED crowding metrics. Moreover, the results displayed heterogeneous results at each level of ED care; these reflected that generally solutions have not been matched to specific problems facing regional centres. Thus, individual factors need to be considered when implementing solutions in Emergency Departments.

Hospital surge capacity preparedness in disasters and emergencies: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Adequate and effective emergency preparedness for hospital surge capacity is a prerequisite to ensuring standard healthcare services for disaster victims. This study aimed to identify, review, and synthesize the preparedness activities for and the barriers to hospital surge capacity in disasters and emergencies.

METHODS

We systematically searched seven databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Scopus, Embase, Ovid, and PsycINFO). We included all English peer-reviewed studies published in January 2016 and July 2022 on surge capacity preparedness in hospital settings. Two independent researchers screened titles and abstracts, reviewed the full texts, and conducted data extractions using CADIMA software. We assessed the rigor of the included studies using the NIH quality assessment tools for quantitative studies, the Noyes et al. guidelines for qualitative studies, and the MMAT tool for mixed methods studies and summarized findings using the narrative synthesis method. We also used PRISMA reporting guidelines.

RESULTS

From the 2560 studies identified, we finally include 13 peer-reviewed studies: 10 quantitative, one qualitative, and two mixed methods. Five studies were done in the USA, three in Iran (n = 3), and the remaining in Australia, Pakistan, Sweden, Taiwan, and Tanzania. The study identified various ways to increase hospital surge capacity preparedness in all four domains (staff, stuff, space, and system); among them, the use of the Hospital Medical Surge Preparedness Index and the Surge Simulation Tool for surge planning was noteworthy. Moreover, nine studies (69%) recognized several barriers to hospital surge capacity preparedness.

CONCLUSION

The review provides synthesized evidence of contemporary literature on strategies for and barriers to hospital surge capacity preparedness. Despite the risk of selection bias due to the omission of gray literature, the study findings could help hospital authorities, public health workers, and policymakers to develop effective plans and programs for improving hospital surge capacity preparedness with actions, such as enhancing coordination, new or adapted flows of patients, disaster planning implementation, or the development of specific tools for surge capacity.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022360332.

A fast emergency department triage score based on mobility, mental status and oxygen saturation compared with the emergency severity index: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Waiting for triage in overburdened emergency departments (ED) has become an increasing problem, which endangers patients. A fast triage system to rapidly identify low-acuity patients should divert care and resources to more urgent cases.

AIM

The objective of this study was to compare the performance of the Kitovu Hospital fast triage (KFT) score with the Emergency Severity Index (ESI), using mortality and hospital admission as proxies for the patients' acuity.

DESIGN

This is a prospective observational study of consecutive patients presenting to a Swiss academic ED.

METHODS

Patients were prospectively triaged into one of five ESI strata and retrospectively assessed by the KFT score, which awards one point each for altered mental status, impaired mobility and oxygen saturation <94%.

RESULTS

The KFT score had a lower discrimination than the ESI for hospital admission, but a higher discrimination for mortality from 24 h to 1 year after ED presentation. A total of 5544 (67%) patients were assigned to the lowest acuity by the KFT score compared with 2374 (28.7%) by the ESI; there was no significant difference in the 24-h mortality of patients who were deemed low acuity by either score.

CONCLUSION

Compared to the ESI, the KFT score identifies more than twice as many patients at low risk of early death. Therefore, this score might help to identify patients who could be managed through alternative pathways. This may be particularly helpful in situations of ED crowding and access block.

Casualty care implications of large-scale combat operations

Analysis and review of combat casualty care challenges in future large-scale and medical multi-domain operations from the perspective of past, present, and potential future conflicts.

Decision Support System Proposal for Medical Evacuations in Military Operations

The area of military operations is a big challenge for medical support. A particularly important factor that allows medical services to react quickly in the case of mass casualties is the ability to rapidly evacuation of wounded soldiers from a battlefield. To meet this requirement, an effective medical evacuation system is essential. The paper presented the architecture of the electronically supported decision support system for medical evacuation during military operations. The system can also be used by other services such as police or fire service. The system meets the requirements for tactical combat casualty care procedures and is composed of following elements: measurement subsystem, data transmission subsystem and analysis and inference subsystem. The system, based on the continuous monitoring of selected soldiers' vital signs and biomedical signals, automatically proposes a medical segregation of wounded soldiers (medical triage). The information on the triage was visualized using the Headquarters Management System for medical personnel (first responders, medical officers, medical evacuation groups) and for commanders, if required. All elements of the architecture were described in the paper.

Factors affecting the triage decision-making ability of emergency nurses in Northern China: A multi-center descriptive survey

INTRODUCTION

The quality of triage decision-making is a prerequisite for priority treatment of critically ill patients and effective utilization of medical resources. Figuring out how to improve triage decision-making is still a topic around the global emergency department. Hence, this study aims to promote an understanding of triage priority care and clarify the elements influencing triage decision-making ability, offering reference for the future to improve the quality of triage decision-making.

METHOD

A total of 404 emergency nurses from 11 tertiary hospitals in northern China were surveyed by questionnaire, of which 371 valid questionnaires were submitted (effective rate = 91.83 %). One hospital distributed the questionnaire face-to-face, and the other ten used online form.

RESULT

Prior to occupying triage jobs, only a quarter of participants(25.30 %)were qualified. Less than half of emergency nurses (46.60 %) reported taking part in the triage training program. The emergency nurses' triage decision-making ability score was 166.50 ± 26.90(95 %CI 163.75,169.24) in northern China. Gender(P = 0.003), case discussion(P = 0.024), secondary assessment(P = 0.020)and knowledge of triage consensus(P = 0.027) are independent factors influencing triage decision-making ability.

CONCLUSION

Emergency triage practices are less implemented in northern China. The triage decision-making ability of emergency nurses in northern China is at a low level. Providing emergency nurses with diverse opportunities to develop their triage skills, finding effective triage training content, form, and frequency, strengthening implement triage consensus, and wisely managing triage nurse resources would improve triage decision-making.

Assessing Thai Hospitals’ Evacuation Preparedness Using the Flexible Surge Capacity Concept and Its Collaborative Tool

According to the concept of “flexible surge capacity,” hospitals may need to be evacuated on two occasions: (1) when they are exposed to danger, such as in war; and (2) when they are contaminated, such as during the Covid-19 pandemic. In the former, the entire hospital must be evacuated, while in the latter, the hospital becomes a pandemic center necessitating the transfer of its non-contaminated staff, patients, and routine activities to other facilities. Such occasions involve several degrees of evacuation—partial or total—yet all require deliberate surge planning and collaboration with diverse authorities. This study aimed to investigate the extent of hospital evacuation preparedness in Thailand, using the main elements of the flexible surge capacity concept. A mixed method cross-sectional study was conducted using a hospital evacuation questionnaire from a previously published multinational hospital evacuation study. The tool contained questions regarding evacuation preparedness encompassing surge capacity and collaborative elements and an open-ended inquiry to grasp potential perspectives. All 143 secondary care, tertiary care, and university hospitals received the questionnaire; 43 hospitals provided responses. The findings indicate glitches in evacuation protocols, particularly triage systems, the inadequacies of surge planning and multiagency collaboration, and knowledge limitations in community capabilities. In conclusion, the applications of the essential components of flexible surge capacity allow the assessment of hospital preparedness and facilitate the evaluation of guidelines and instructions through scenario-based training exercises.

Shortage of hospital bed capacity and overcrowding in emergency tertiary healthcare centers in Nigeria

Shortage of hospital bed capacity and overcrowding remains a significant problem in Nigeria's healthcare system. The problem is even more conspicuous in emergency units in various health institutions. Despite Nigeria's already high morbidity burden, overcrowding remains a problem in these parts. The problem of overcrowding in tertiary health institutions can be traced back to a more specialized approach the institutions give as well as self-referrals that is common among community populations. The resultant effect is the referral of patients which can worsen already severe complications if not admitted immediately. Our study contributes to providing more information regarding the problems causing the shortage as well as recommends tenable solutions that could be enacted to solving this pressing problem.

Overcrowding in Emergency Department: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions—A Narrative Review

Overcrowding in Emergency Departments (EDs) is a phenomenon that is now widespread globally and causes a significant negative impact that goes on to affect the entire hospital. This contributes to a number of consequences that can affect both the number of resources available and the quality of care. Overcrowding is due to a number of factors that in most cases lead to an increase in the number of people within the ED, an increase in mortality and morbidity, and a decrease in the ability to provide critical services in a timely manner to patients suffering from medical emergencies. This phenomenon results in the Emergency Department reaching, and in some cases exceeding, its optimal capacity. In this review, the main causes and consequences involving this phenomenon were collected, including the effect caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in recent years. Finally, special attention was paid to the main operational strategies that have been developed over the years, strategies that can be applied both at the ED level (microlevel strategies) and at the hospital level (macrolevel strategies).

Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning scoring tool for estimating time to emergency readmissions

BACKGROUND

Emergency readmission poses an additional burden on both patients and healthcare systems. Risk stratification is the first step of transitional care interventions targeted at reducing readmission. To accurately predict the short- and intermediate-term risks of readmission and provide information for further temporal risk stratification, we developed and validated an interpretable machine learning risk scoring system.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, all emergency admission episodes from January 1st 2009 to December 31st 2016 at a tertiary hospital in Singapore were assessed. The primary outcome was time to emergency readmission within 90 days post discharge. The Score for Emergency ReAdmission Prediction (SERAP) tool was derived via an interpretable machine learning-based system for time-to-event outcomes. SERAP is six-variable survival score, and takes the number of emergency admissions last year, age, history of malignancy, history of renal diseases, serum creatinine level, and serum albumin level during index admission into consideration.

FINDINGS

A total of 293,589 ED admission episodes were finally included in the whole cohort. Among them, 203,748 episodes were included in the training cohort, 50,937 episodes in the validation cohort, and 38,904 in the testing cohort. Readmission within 90 days was documented in 80,213 (27.3%) episodes, with a median time to emergency readmission of 22 days (Interquartile range: 8-47). For different time points, the readmission rates observed in the whole cohort were 6.7% at 7 days, 10.6% at 14 days, 13.6% at 21 days, 16.4% at 30 days, and 23.0% at 60 days. In the testing cohort, the SERAP achieved an integrated area under the curve of 0.737 (95% confidence interval: 0.730-0.743). For a specific 30-day readmission prediction, SERAP outperformed the LACE index (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Charlson comorbidity index, and Emergency department visits in past six months) and the HOSPITAL score (Hemoglobin at discharge, discharge from an Oncology service, Sodium level at discharge, Procedure during the index admission, Index Type of admission, number of Admissions during the last 12 months, and Length of stay). Besides 30-day readmission, SERAP can predict readmission rates at any time point during the 90-day period.

INTERPRETATION

Better performance in risk prediction was achieved by the SERAP than other existing scores, and accurate information about time to emergency readmission was generated for further temporal risk stratification and clinical decision-making. In the future, external validation studies are needed to evaluate the SERAP at different settings and assess their real-world performance.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the Singapore National Medical Research Council under the PULSES Center Grant, and Duke-NUS Medical School.

Emergency Department Overcrowding: Understanding the Factors to Find Corresponding Solutions

It is certain and established that overcrowding represents one of the main problems that has been affecting global health and the functioning of the healthcare system in the last decades, and this is especially true for the emergency department (ED). Since 1980, overcrowding has been identified as one of the main factors limiting correct, timely, and efficient hospital care. The more recent COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the accentuation of this phenomenon, which was already well known and of international interest. Considering what would appear to be a trivial definition of overcrowding, it may seem simple for the reader to hypothesize solutions for what seems to be one of the most avoidable problems affecting the hospital system. However, proposing solutions to overcrowding, as well as their implementation, cannot be separated from a correct and precise definition of the issue, which must consider the main causes and aggravating factors. In light of the need of finding solutions that can put an end to hospital overcrowding, this review aims, through a review of the literature, to summarize the triggering factors, as well as the possible solutions that can be proposed.

“An increase in COVID-19 patients would be overwhelming”: A qualitative description of healthcare workers’ experiences during the first wave of COVID-19 (March 2020 to October 2020) at Malawi’s largest referral hospital

Background  COVID-19 is currently a global health threat. Healthcare workers are on the front-line of the COVID-19 outbreak response and therefore at heightened risk of infection. There is a dearth of evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa about healthcare worker experiences in managing COVID-19.  We have reported on healthcare worker responses, experiences, and perspectives on epidemic response strategies at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi’s largest referral hospital.   Methods  We conducted 39 face-to-face in-depth interviews with a purposively selected sample of healthcare workers during the first wave of COVID-19 in Malawi (March 2020 to October 2020). The study included healthcare workers who provided direct and indirect patient care.   Results  During the early phase of the first wave (March to May 2020), healthcare workers expressed concerns with inadequate working space, unconducive infrastructure, delayed and rushed training on the management of COVID-19, and lack of incentives. Additionally, the hospital had staff shortages and limited essential resources such as piped oxygen and personal protective equipment. This increased healthcare worker fears of contracting COVID-19 and they were less willing to volunteer at COVID-19 isolation units. Resource constraints and limited preparedness compromised the care pathway particularly with increased numbers of COVID-19 patients. By the peak of the first wave (June to August 2020) many of these issues had been resolved. The hospital provided refresher training courses, personal protective equipment became available, incentives were offered to healthcare workers working in COVID-19 units and piped oxygen was installed. Staff morale was boosted, and more staff were willing to work at the COVID-19 isolation centres.   Conclusion  Experiences of healthcare workers during the first wave of COVID-19 are critical for improving care in future COVID-19 waves. Response strategies in resource-constrained areas should prioritise timely training of staff, creation of adequate isolation areas, provision of adequate medical supplies and strengthening leadership.

Improving Emergency Care Through a Dedicated Redesigned Obstetrics and Gynecology Emergency Unit at the Women's Hospital, Doha, Qatar

BACKGROUND

OBJECTIVE

STUDY DESIGN

RESULTS

CONCLUSION

Triage protocol for allocation of critical health resources during Covid-19 pandemic and public health emergencies. A narrative review

Background and aim of the work.

Triage during the Covid-19 pandemic can impose difficult allocation decisions when demand for mechanical ventilation or intensive care beds greatly exceeds available resources. Triage criteria should be objective, ethical, transparent, applied equitably and publically disclosed. The aim of this review is to describe the triage tools and process for critical care resources in a pandemic health emergency.

Methods.

A narrative review was conducted of the literature on five electronic databases, namely PubMed, CINHAL, Web of Science, Cochrane and Embase, searching for studies published from January 2006 to July 2020.

Results.

The results describe different triage tools. A gold standard of triage does not exist for the adult or paediatric population. Using probability of short-term survival as the sole allocation principle is problematic. In general, each triage protocol should be applied with a specific ethical justification, including transparency, duty to care, duty to steward resources, duty to plan, and distributive justice.

Conclusions.

Clinical triage decisions based on clinical judgment alone are prone to inconsistent application by triage officers in a pandemic. An ethical framework can inform decision-making and improve accountability. It remains difficult to connect clinical criteria and ethical criteria, because of the models on offer for health services. (www.actabiomedica.it)

Factors Affecting Emergency Department Crowding

Emergency department crowding is a multifactorial issue with causes intrinsic to the emergency department and to the health care system. Understanding that the causes of emergency department crowding span this continuum allows for a more accurate analysis of its effects and a more global consideration of potential solutions. Within the emergency department, boarding of inpatients is the most appreciable effect of hospital-wide crowding, and leads to further emergency department crowding. We explore the concept of emergency department crowding, and its causes, effects, and potential strategies to overcome this problem.

Comparison of Reverse Triage with National Early Warning Score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Charlson Comorbidity Index to classify medical inpatients of an Italian II level hospital according to their resource's need

Resource allocation in our overcrowded hospitals would require classification of inpatients according to the severity of illness, the evolving risk and the clinical complexity. Reverse triage (RT) is a method used in disasters to identify inpatients according to their use of hospital resources. The aim of this observational prospective study is to evaluate the use of RT in medical inpatients of an Italian Hospital and to compare the RT score with National Early Warning Score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Charlson Comorbidity Index. Cluster sampling was performed on high dependency unit (HDU), geriatrics (Ger) and internal medicine (IM) wards. We calculate RT, NEWS, SOFA and CCI from inpatient charts. Length of stay (LOS), transfer to a higher level of care, death and discharge date were collected after 30 days. We obtained demographics, comorbidities, severity and clinical complexity of 260 inpatients. We highlighted differences in NEWS, SOFA and CCI in the three divisions. On the contrary RT score was uniformly high (median 7), with 85% of patients with RT = 8. NEWS, SOFA and CCI were higher in patients with higher RT score. We used the sum of the interventions listed by RT (RT sum) as a proxy of the level of care needed. RT-sum showed moderate correlation with NEWS (r = 0.52 Spearman, p < 0.001). RT-sum was the highest in HDU, related to the evolving severity of HDU patients. Ger patients that showed the highest CCI score (with all patients in the CCI ≥ 3 category) had the second highest RT-sum. RT score showed similar values in the majority of the inpatients regardless of differences in NEWS, SOFA and CCI in different ward subgroups. RT-sum is related both to evolving severity (NEWS) and to clinical complexity (CCI). RT and NEWS could predict inpatient level of care and resource need associated with CCI.

Novel 2019-coronavirus on new year's Eve

An ongoing apocalyptic outbreak of a new virus causing pneumonia-like clusters in Wuhan city, China, has gleamed the world. The outbreak, confirmed on the New Year's Eve 2020, has known no boundaries since then. The number has surpassed that of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and is uninterruptedly escalating. Being an RNA virus, it has a propensity to mutate due to the low proofreading capacity of RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Step-wise mutations have led to the gradual spillover of virus and after crossing the inter-species interface, the virus has adapted itself for a stable human-to-human transmission. The disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (CoV)-2 (SARS-CoV-2) can prove deadlier if the so-called 'super-spreading events' emerge with time. Recent research has shown the maximum homology of 99% of SARS-CoV-2 to pangolins associated coronavirus, owing to which these can serve as potential intermediate host. India is responding swiftly to the emergency situation, and the whole of the country is under lockdown since 25 March 2020, to ensure social distancing. All the international flights are padlocked and the travellers are being screened at airports and seaports via thermal sensors, and quarantine for a period of 14 days is recommended. Three hundred and forty-five patients across the country tested positive with six fatalities as of 22 March 2020. No specific anti-CoV drugs are currently available. Patients are being treated with protease drugs are inhibitors, remdesivir, chloroquine, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 inhibitors, ivermectin, sarilumab and tocilizumab, though none of these is Food and Drug Administration approved and are undergoing trials. Preventive measures such as social distancing, quarantine, cough etiquettes, proper hand washing, cleaning and decontaminating the surfaces are the mainstay for curbing the transmission of this virus. The present review highlights the update of novel SARS-CoV-2 in context to the Indian scenario.

The Feasibility of Increasing Hospital Surge Capacity in Disasters through Early Patient Discharge

Objective:

Hospitals are expected to be able to provide quality services during disasters. However, hospital capacity is limited and most hospital beds are almost always occupied. The aim of this study was to determine the feasibility of increasing hospital surge capacity during disasters through identification of patients suitable for safe early discharge.

Methods:

This cross-sectional study was conducted from May 2017 to February 2018 in two phases. In phase I, the Early Discharge Checklist was developed by a multidisciplinary panel of experts. Then in phase II, the checklist was used to assess the dischargeability of 396 in-patients in general wards of hospitals in Alborz province, Iran. Data were analyzed through the SPSS software (v. 22.0) and the results were presented by descriptive and analytical statics at a significance level of less than 0.05.

Results:

Of 396 patients, (64.65%) were male, (68.9%) were married, and (38.6%) aged more than 54. Moreover, (34.6%) patients were dischargeable. Patients in cardiology wards were more dischargeable. At follow-up assessment, 33.3% of patients had been discharged after 48 hours. There was a significant relationship between patient dischargeability and 48-hour hospitalization status (p=0.001). Dischargeability had no significant relationships with patients’ demographic characteristics (p>0.05).

Conclusion:

A considerable percentage of in-patients are dischargeable during disasters. The Early Discharge Assessment Checklist, developed in this study, is an appropriate tool to provide reliable data about early dischargeability in disasters.

Triage Systems in Mass Casualty Incidents and Disasters: A Review Study with A Worldwide Approach

BACKGROUND:

Injuries caused by emergencies and accidents are increasing in the world. To prioritise patients to provide them with proper services and to optimally use the resources and facilities of the medical centres during accidents, the use of triage systems, which are one of the key principles of accident management, seems essential.

AIM:

This study is an attempt to identify available triage systems and compare the differences and similarities of the standards of these systems during emergencies and disasters through a review study.

METHODS:

This study was conducted through a review of the triage systems used in emergencies and disasters throughout the world. Accordingly, all articles published between 1990 and 2018 in both English and Persian journals were searched based on several keywords including Triage, Disaster, Mass Casualty Incidents, in the Medlib, Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane Library, Science Direct, Google scholar, Irandoc, Magiran, Iranmedex, and SID databases in isolation and in combination using both and/ or conjunctions.

RESULTS:

Based on the search done in these databases, twenty different systems were identified in the primary adult triage field including START, Homebush triage Standard, Sieve, CareFlight, STM, Military, CESIRA Protocol, MASS, Revers, CBRN Triage, Burn Triage, META Triage, Mass Gathering Triage, SwiFT Triage, MPTT, TEWS Triage, Medical Triage, SALT, mSTART and ASAV. There were two primary triage systems including Jump START and PTT for children, and also two secondary triage systems encompassing SAVE and Sort identified in this respect. ESI and CRAMS were two other cases distinguished for hospital triage systems.

CONCLUSION:

There are divergent triage systems in the world, but there is no general and universal agreement on how patients and injured people should be triaged. Accordingly, these systems may be designed based on such criteria as vital signs, patient’s major problems, or the resources and facilities needed to respond to patients’ needs. To date, no triage system has been known as superior, specifically about the patients’ clinical outcomes, improvement of the scene management or allocation of the resources compared to other systems. Thus, it is recommended that different countries such as Iran design their triage model for emergencies and disasters by their native conditions, resources and relief forces.

Inpatient disposition in overcrowded hospitals: is it safe and effective to use reverse triage and readmission screening tools for appropriate discharge? An observational prospective study of an Italian II level hospital

BACKGROUND

Reverse triage (RT) identifies patients eligible for discharge and have been proposed to cope with daily surge. Nevertheless, early discharge could increase the rate of readmission. Our aim is to test the effectiveness and safety of RT alone and with readmission screening tools (Identification Senior At Risk [ISAR], HOSPITAL, and Groeningen Frailty Index [GFI] scores) to predict appropriate discharge.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We prospectively assessed every 4 days (t0 ) inpatients of medical divisions (High Dependency Unit (HDU), Internal Medicine (IM), and Geriatrics (Ger)) of an Italian Hospital. RT score was calculated for each patient and an RT ≤3 identified those eligible for safe discharge. ISAR, HOSPITAL, and GFI were then applied. We assessed reinstituting of interventions and transferring to an increased level of care unit at 4 days as an ethical proxy of consequential medical events following hypothetical discharge. Date of effective discharge, death, and readmission were measured at 4, 7, 15, and 30 days after the first evaluation.

RESULTS

Twenty-five (9.6%) out of 260 patients in our sample had an RT ≤3. Twenty-four (96%) of them compared with 205 (87%) of the RT >3 group (P = NS) were discharged. Patients with RT ≤3 were discharged significantly earlier (3.5 vs 8 days after t0 [P = 0.0002]). In the RT ≤3 group, all but one patient were alive and healthy at 7, 15, and 30 days. The HOSPITAL score seemed to have the best concordance with RT (84%), in comparison with the ISAR (52%) and the GFI (48%) scores. RT showed a low sensitivity (22%) and high specificity (95%), which was even higher when using RT associated with readmission screening tools.

CONCLUSIONS

Reverse triage proved to be a safe and conservative tool, with high specificity alone and with readmission screening tools. RT correctly identifies patients that will be discharged earlier.

Reverse Triage to Increase the Hospital Surge Capacity in Disaster Response

Introduction

Successful and effective management of large-scale disasters and epidemics requires pre-established systematic plans to minimize the damage and control the situation. With an increasing number of people in need of urgent medical care, hospitals must improve their response capacity, being at the forefront of responding to disasters and incidents. One way to develop the hospital capacity in disaster response is by reverse triage (RT).

Objective

The current study was conducted to investigate the role of RT to create additional hospital surge capacity in one of the major referral academic hospitals of Isfahan, Iran.

Method

This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2015 at Al-Zahra Subspecialty Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. The ten most common diseases leading to hospitalization in each ward of the hospital in 2014 were reviewed and, based on the prevalence, sorted and listed. Academic instructions for making a decision and possibility of early discharge was written and approved by an expert panel. On a day that was not set previously, the pre-selected in-charge person of each department was asked to run the RT following the instructions, and the number and percentage of those who were eligible for discharge via RT were determined.

Results

The total BOR in Al-Zahra Hospital in 2014 was about 80%, so it was estimated that almost 140 out of 700 beds are vacant. The results showed that by using RT, 108 (20%) hospitalized cases could be discharged, and considering the bed occupancy rate of about 80% and 140 vacant beds, a total of 248 beds could be provided following RT.

Conclusion

Running RT in 41 wards and units of Isfahan Al-Zahra Hospital, on average, added 108 beds to the hospital capacity. This increment is not the same in all wards, as the role of intensive care units in RT for surge capacity is insignificant.

Novel IT Application for Reverse Triage Selection: A Pilot Study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate an evidence-based information technology (IT) application that guides clinical decision-making during the reverse-triage selection process in mass casualty incidents.

METHODS

Based upon 28 validated critical interventions (CI) relevant for determining whether a patient qualifies for early discharge, we developed the Reverse Triage Tool of Leuven (RTTL). The RTTL is compatible with the health electronic record (HER) of UZ Leuven, a tertiary hospital in Belgium. During a 3-week period in March 2015, we registered data from 2 groups of patients: a random group (no RTTL usage) and a filtered group (RTTL usage).

RESULTS

When applying the original 28 CIs, we were able to select almost twice as many patients in the filtered group who qualified for early discharge compared with patients in the random group. The predictive validity was highly satisfactory.

CONCLUSIONS

The RTTL saves time in 2 ways. First, it reduces the patient population that needs to be evaluated for potential early discharge to one-third. Second, it doubles the probability of selecting an actual dischargeable patient. Each selected patient, however, still must undergo multidisciplinary reassessment in order to qualify for early discharge. Thus, further research is required to optimize the IT application.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:599-605).