Characteristics, survival and neurological outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in young adults in Sweden: A nationwide study

Aim

The aim of this study was to present a comprehensive overview of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) in young adults.

Methods

The data set analyzed included all cases of OHCA from 1990 to 2020 in the age-range 16-49 years in the Swedish Registry of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (SRCR). OHCA between 2010 and 2020 were analyzed in more detail. Clinical characteristics, survival, neurological outcomes, and long-time trends in survival were studied. Logistic regression was used to study 30-days survival, neurological outcomes and Utstein determinants of survival.

Results

Trends were assessed in 11,180 cases. The annual increase in 30-days survival during 1990-2020 was 5.9% with no decline in neurological function among survivors. Odds ratio (OR) for heart disease as the cause was 0.55 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.67) in 2017-2020 compared to 1990-1993. Corresponding ORs for overdoses and suicide attempts were 1.61 (95% CI 1.23-2.13) and 2.06 (95% CI 1.48-2.94), respectively. Exercise related OHCA was noted in roughly 5%. OR for bystander CPR in 2017-2020 vs 1990-1993 was 3.11 (95% CI 2.57 to 3.78); in 2020 88 % received bystander CPR. EMS response time increased from 6 to 10 minutes.

Conclusion

Survival has increased 6% annually, resulting in a three-fold increase over 30 years, with stable neurological outcome. EMS response time increased with 66% but the majority now receive bystander CPR. Cardiac arrest due to overdoses and suicide attempts are increasing.

The impact of the three-level collaboration exercise on collaboration and leadership during scenario-based hospital evacuation exercises using flexible surge capacity concept: a mixed method cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Hospitals play a crucial role in responding to disasters and public health emergencies. However, they are also vulnerable to threats such as fire or flooding and can fail to respond or evacuate adequately due to unpreparedness and lack of evacuation measures. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has emphasised the importance of partnerships and capacity building in disaster response. One effective way to improve and develop disaster response is through exercises that focus on collaboration and leadership. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of using the 3-level collaboration (3LC) exercise in developing collaboration and leadership in districts in Thailand, using the concept of flexible surge capacity (FSC) and its collaborative tool during a hospital evacuation simulation.

METHODS

A mixed-method cross-sectional study was conducted with 40 participants recruited from disaster-response organisations and communities. The data from several scenario-based simulations were collected according to the collaborative elements (Command and control, Safety, Communication, Assessment, Triage, Treatment, Transport), in the disaster response education, "Major Incident Medical Management and Support" using self-evaluation survey pre- and post-exercises, and direct observation.

RESULTS

The 3LC exercise effectively facilitated participants to gain a mutual understanding of collaboration, leadership, and individual and organisational flexibility. The exercise also identified gaps in communication and the utilisation of available resources. Additionally, the importance of early community engagement was highlighted to build up a flexible surge capacity during hospital evacuation preparedness.

CONCLUSIONS

the 3LC exercise is valuable for improving leadership skills and multiagency collaboration by incorporating the collaborative factors of Flexible Surge Capacity concept in hospital evacuation preparedness.

Assessing Thai Hospitals’ Evacuation Preparedness Using the Flexible Surge Capacity Concept and Its Collaborative Tool

According to the concept of “flexible surge capacity,” hospitals may need to be evacuated on two occasions: (1) when they are exposed to danger, such as in war; and (2) when they are contaminated, such as during the Covid-19 pandemic. In the former, the entire hospital must be evacuated, while in the latter, the hospital becomes a pandemic center necessitating the transfer of its non-contaminated staff, patients, and routine activities to other facilities. Such occasions involve several degrees of evacuation—partial or total—yet all require deliberate surge planning and collaboration with diverse authorities. This study aimed to investigate the extent of hospital evacuation preparedness in Thailand, using the main elements of the flexible surge capacity concept. A mixed method cross-sectional study was conducted using a hospital evacuation questionnaire from a previously published multinational hospital evacuation study. The tool contained questions regarding evacuation preparedness encompassing surge capacity and collaborative elements and an open-ended inquiry to grasp potential perspectives. All 143 secondary care, tertiary care, and university hospitals received the questionnaire; 43 hospitals provided responses. The findings indicate glitches in evacuation protocols, particularly triage systems, the inadequacies of surge planning and multiagency collaboration, and knowledge limitations in community capabilities. In conclusion, the applications of the essential components of flexible surge capacity allow the assessment of hospital preparedness and facilitate the evaluation of guidelines and instructions through scenario-based training exercises.

Improving Machine Learning 30-Day Mortality Prediction by Discounting Surprising Deaths

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) is an emerging tool for predicting need of end-of-life discussion and palliative care, by using mortality as a proxy. But deaths, unforeseen by emergency physicians at time of the emergency department (ED) visit, might have a weaker association with the ED visit.

OBJECTIVES

To develop an ML algorithm that predicts unsurprising deaths within 30 days after ED discharge.

METHODS

In this retrospective registry study, we included all ED attendances within the Swedish region of Halland in 2015 and 2016. All registered deaths within 30 days after ED discharge were classified as either "surprising" or "unsurprising" by an adjudicating committee with three senior specialists in emergency medicine. ML algorithms were developed for the death subclasses by using Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM).

RESULTS

Of all 30-day deaths (n = 148), 76% (n = 113) were not surprising to the adjudicating committee. The most common diseases were advanced stage cancer, multidisease/frailty, and dementia. By using LR, RF, and SVM, mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of unsurprising deaths in the test set were 0.950 (SD 0.008), 0.944 (SD 0.007), and 0.949 (SD 0.007), respectively. For all mortality, the ROC-AUCs for LR, RF, and SVM were 0.924 (SD 0.012), 0.922 (SD 0.009), and 0.931 (SD 0.008). The difference in prediction performance between all and unsurprising death was statistically significant (P < .001) for all three models.

CONCLUSION

In patients discharged to home from the ED, three-quarters of all 30-day deaths did not surprise an adjudicating committee with emergency medicine specialists. When only unsurprising deaths were included, ML mortality prediction improved significantly.

Likelihood of admission to hospital from the emergency department is not universally associated with hospital bed occupancy at the time of admission

Background

The decision to admit into the hospital from the emergency department (ED) is considered to be important and challenging. The aim was to assess whether previously published results suggesting an association between hospital bed occupancy and likelihood of hospital admission from the ED can be reproduced in a different study population.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of attendances at two Swedish EDs in 2015 was performed. Admission to hospital was assessed in relation to hospital bed occupancy together with other clinically relevant variables. Hospital bed occupancy was categorized and univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed.

Results

In total 89,503 patient attendances were included in the final analysis. Of those, 29.1% resulted in admission within 24 h. The mean hospital bed occupancy by the hour of the two hospitals was 87.1% (SD 7.6). In both the univariate and multivariate analysis, odds ratio for admission within 24 h from the ED did not decrease significantly with an increasing hospital bed occupancy.

Conclusions

A negative association between admission to hospital and occupancy level, as reported elsewhere, was not replicated. This suggests that the previously shown association might not be universal but may vary across sites due to setting specific circumstances.

Reasons for longer LOS at the emergency departments: Practical, patient-centred, medical, or cultural?

Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is caused by external and/or internal factors. One critical internal factor, leading to longer length of stay (LOS) at ED (eg, frequent ED users), is the physician's uncertainty in management of patients with unclear diagnosis and or complex medical history. The aim of this study was to identify whether the causes of physicians' uncertainty was practical, patient-centred, medical, or cultural. Using earlier published dimensions of uncertainty, 18 physicians were asked to reply to a template by choosing a relevant dimension that causes a delay in assessment of a known complex patient. This stage was completed by interviews through which participants had an opportunity to express their concerns and critical thoughts, if any. The data obtained from the template were collected and analysed. The interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. The results of the template indicated medical dimension as the main factor in delayed assessment of a complex patient. However, this finding was challenged by the results of the interviews, which indicated higher impact of personal/routines/cultural dimension (eg, being afraid of criticism, reprimand, and gossip or feelings of guilt). Although medical, patient-centred, and practical issues are important causes of longer LOS at ED, physicians' working and professional environment may have a higher impact than previously perceived. The uncertainty caused by interpersonal, organisational, and cultural issues within a clinic/hospital seems to influence the physician's ability to make decisions and thus a patient's medical outcome.