Prognostic value of serial score measurements of the national early warning score, the quick sequential organ failure assessment and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome to predict clinical outcome in early sepsis

Combining host immune response biomarkers and clinical scores for early prediction of sepsis in infection patients

BACKGROUND

The performance of host immune responses biomarkers and clinical scores was compared to identify infection patient populations at risk of progression to sepsis, ICU admission and mortality.

METHODS

Immune response biomarkers were measured and NEWS, SIRS, and MEWS. Logistic and Cox regression models were employed to evaluate the strength of association.

RESULTS

IL-10 and NEWS had the strongest association with sepsis development, whereas IL-6 and CRP had the strongest association with ICU admission and in-hospital mortality. IL-6 [HR (95%CI) = 2.68 (1.61-4.46)] was associated with 28-day mortality. Patient subgroups with high IL-10 (≥ 5.03 pg/ml) and high NEWS (> 5 points) values had significantly higher rates of sepsis development (88.3% vs 61.1%; p < 0.001), in-hospital mortality (35.0% vs. 16.7%; p < 0.001), 28-day mortality (25.0% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.001), and ICU admission (66.7% vs. 38.9%; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients exhibiting low severity signs of infection but high IL-10 levels showed an elevated probability of developing sepsis. Combining IL-10 with the NEWS score provides a reliable tool for predicting the progression from infection to sepsis at an early stage. Utilizing IL-6 in the emergency room can help identify patients with low NEWS or SIRS scores.

Decrease in Mortality after the Implementation of a Hospital Model to Improve Performance in Sepsis Care: Princess Sepsis Code

Sepsis is a time-dependent disease whose prognosis is influenced by early diagnosis and therapeutic measures. Mortality from sepsis remains high, and for this reason, the guidelines of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign recommend establishing specific care programs aimed at patients with sepsis. We present the results of the application of a hospital model to improve performance in sepsis care, called Princess Sepsis Code, with the aim of reducing mortality. A retrospective study was conducted using clinical, epidemiological, and outcome variables in patients diagnosed with sepsis from 2015 to 2022. A total of 2676 patients were included, 32% of whom required admission to the intensive care unit, with the most frequent focus of the sepsis being abdominal. Mortality in 2015, at the beginning of the sepsis code program, was 24%, with a declining rate noted over the study period, with mortality reaching 17% in 2022. In the multivariate analysis, age > 70 years, respiratory rate > 22 rpm, deterioration in the level of consciousness, serum lactate > 2 mmol/L, creatinine > 1.6 mg/dL, and the focus of the sepsis were identified as variables independently related to mortality. The implementation of the Princess Sepsis Code care model reduces the mortality of patients exhibiting sepsis and septic shock.

Comparing 11 early warning scores and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the discriminatory performance of 11 vital sign-based early warning scores (EWSs) and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study on consecutive adult patients with an infection over 3 months in a public ED in Hong Kong. The primary outcome was sepsis (Sepsis-3 definition) within 48 h of ED presentation. Using c-statistics and the DeLong test, we compared 11 EWSs, including the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), Modified Early Warning Score, and Worthing Physiological Scoring System (WPS), etc., and three shock indices (the shock index [SI], modified shock index [MSI], and diastolic shock index [DSI]), with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) in predicting the primary outcome, intensive care unit admission, and mortality at different time points.

RESULTS

We analyzed 601 patients, of whom 166 (27.6%) developed sepsis. NEWS2 had the highest point estimate (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.75, 95%CI 0.70-0.79) and was significantly better than SIRS, qSOFA, other EWSs and shock indices, except WPS, at predicting the primary outcome. However, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS2 ≥ 5 for the prediction of sepsis were 0.45 (95%CI 0.37-0.52) and 0.88 (95%CI 0.85-0.91), respectively. The discriminatory performance of all EWSs and shock indices declined when used to predict mortality at a more remote time point.

CONCLUSION

NEWS2 compared favorably with other EWSs and shock indices in early sepsis prediction but its low sensitivity at the usual cut-off point requires further modification for sepsis screening.

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor and procalcitonin for risk stratification in patients with a suspected infection in the emergency department: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE

Early identification of patients at risk of clinical deterioration may improve prognosis of infected patients in the emergency department (ED). Combining clinical scoring systems with biomarkers may result in a more accurate prediction of mortality than a clinical scoring system or biomarker alone.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to investigate the performance of the combination of National Early Warning Score-2 (NEWS2) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score with soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and procalcitonin to predict 30-day mortality in patients with a suspected infection in the ED.

DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a single-center prospective observational study, conducted in the Netherlands. Patients with suspected infection in the ED were included in this study and followed-up for 30 days. The primary outcome of this study was all cause 30-day mortality. The association between suPAR and procalcitonin with mortality was assessed in subgroups of patients with low and high qSOFA (<1 and ≥1) and low and high NEWS2 (<7 and ≥7).

MAIN RESULTS

Between March 2019 and December 2020, 958 patients were included. A total of 43 (4.5%) patients died within 30 days after ED visit. A suPAR ≥ 6 ng/ml was associated with an increased mortality risk: 5.5 vs. 0.9% ( P  < 0.01) in patients with qSOFA = 0 and 10.7 vs. 2.1% ( P  = 0.02) in patients with qSOFA ≥ 1. There was also an association between procalcitonin ≥0.25 ng/ml and mortality: 5.5 vs. 1.9% ( P  = 0.02) for qSOFA = 0 and 11.9 vs. 4.1% ( P  = 0.03) for qSOFA ≥ 1. Similar associations were found within patients with a NEWS < 7 (5.9 vs. 1.2% for suPAR and 7.0 vs. 1.7% for procalcitonin, P  < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In this prospective cohort study, suPAR and procalcitonin were associated with increased mortality in patients with either a low or high qSOFA and patients with low NEWS2.

Comparison of seven prehospital early warning scores to predict long-term mortality: a prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based study

The long-term predictive validity of early warning scores (EWS) has not been fully elucidated yet. The aim of the present study is to compare seven prehospital EWS to predict 1-year mortality. A prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based study of adult patients with an acute illness involving six advanced life support units and 38 basic life support units, referring to five emergency departments in Spain. The primary outcome was long-term mortality with a 1-year follow-up. The compared scores included: National Early Warning Score 2, VitalPAC early warning score, modified rapid emergency medicine score (MREMS), Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment, Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage Score, Rapid Acute Physiology Score, and Triage Early Warning Score. Discriminative power [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)] and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to compare the scores. Additionally, a Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier method were used. Between 8 October 2019, and 31 July 2021, a total of 2674 patients were selected. The MREMS presented the highest AUC of 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.79), significantly higher than those of the other EWS. It also exhibited the best performance in the DCA and the highest hazard ratio for 1-year mortality [3.56 (2.94-4.31) for MREMS between 9 and 18 points, and 11.71 (7.21-19.02) for MREMS > 18]. Among seven tested EWS, the use of the MREMS presented better characteristics to predict 1-year mortality; however, all these scores present moderate performances.

The prediction of 24-h mortality by the respiratory rate and oxygenation index compared with National Early Warning Score in emergency department patients: an observational study

BACKGROUND

The ROX index combines respiratory rate and oxygenation to predict the response to oxygen therapy in pneumonia. It is calculated by dividing the patient's oxygen saturation, by the inspired oxygen concentration, and then by the respiratory rate (e.g. 95%/0.21/16 = 28). Since this index includes the most essential physiological variables to detect deterioration, it may be a helpful risk tool in the emergency department (ED). Although small studies suggest it can predict early mortality, no large study has compared it with the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), the most widely validated risk score for death within 24 h.

AIM

The aim of this study was to compare the ability of the ROX index with the NEWS to predict mortality within 24 h of arrival at the hospital.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational multicentre analysis of data in the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED) on 270 665 patients attending four participating Dutch EDs. The ROX index and NEWS were determined on ED arrival and prior to ED treatment.

RESULTS

The risk of death within 24 h increased with falling ROX and rising NEWS values. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curves for 24-h mortality of NEWS was significantly higher than for the ROX index [0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-0.92 versus 0.87; 95% CI, 0.86-0.88; P  < 0.01]. However, the observed and predicted mortality by the ROX index was identical to mortality of 5%, after which mortality was underestimated. In contrast, up to a predicted 24-h mortality of 3% NEWS slightly underestimates mortality, and above this level over-estimates it. The standardized net benefit of ROX is slightly higher than NEWS up to a predicted 24-h mortality of 3%.

CONCLUSION

The prediction of 24-h mortality by the ROX index is more accurate than NEWS for most patients likely to be encountered in the ED. ROX may be used as a first screening tool in the ED.

Therapeutic potential of mesenchymal stromal/stem cells in critical-care patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome

BACKGROUND

Despite notable advances in the support and treatment of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), the management of those who develop a systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) still constitutes an unmet medical need.

MAIN BODY

Both the initial injury (trauma, pancreatitis, infections) and the derived uncontrolled response promote a hyperinflammatory status that leads to systemic hypotension, tissue hypoperfusion and multiple organ failure. Mesenchymal stromal/stem cells (MSCs) are emerging as a potential therapy for severe ICU patients due to their potent immunomodulatory, anti-inflammatory, regenerative and systemic homeostasis-regulating properties. MSCs have demonstrated clinical benefits in several inflammatory-based diseases, but their role in SIRS needs to be further explored.

CONCLUSION

In the current review, after briefly overviewing SIRS physiopathology, we explore the potential mechanisms why MSC therapy could aid in the recovery of this condition and the pre-clinical and early clinical evidence generated to date.

Using NEWS2: an essential component of reliable clinical assessment

The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is the established track and trigger system to assess illness severity and risk of deterioration for patients in acute episodes of care in the UK. It is also increasingly used internationally. In this article, we outline established and recommended practice for initial and ongoing assessment. We also highlight where practice may not meet these standards, how the full context and assessment of the patient is paramount, and opportunities for more accurate assessment in the future.