Comparison of Comorbidity Scores in Predicting Surgical Outcomes

Perioperative Primary Care Utilization and Postoperative Readmission, Emergency Department Use, and Mortality in Older Surgical Patients

BACKGROUND

Postdischarge primary care follow-up is associated with lower readmission rates after medical hospitalizations. However, the effect of primary care utilization on readmission has not been studied in surgical patients.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older undergoing major inpatient diagnostic or therapeutic procedures (n = 3,552,906) from 2017 through 2018, examining the association between postdischarge primary care visits within 14 days of discharge (primary exposure), and Annual Wellness Visits in the year prior (secondary exposure), with 30-day unplanned readmission (primary outcome), emergency department visits, and mortality (secondary outcomes).

RESULTS

Overall, 9.5% (n = 336,837) had postdischarge visits within 14 days, 2.9% (n = 104,571) had Annual Wellness Visits in the year preceding the procedure, 9.5% (n = 336,401) were readmitted, 9% (n = 319,054) had emergency department visits, and 0.6% (n = 22,103) of the cohort died within 30 days. Our fully adjusted propensity-matched proportional hazards Cox regression analysis showed that postdischarge visits were associated with a 5% lower risk of readmission (hazard ratio [HR], 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.97), 43% higher risk of emergency department use (HR, 1.43, 95% CI, 1.40-1.46) and no difference in mortality risk (HR, 0.98, 95% CI, 0.90-1.06), compared with not having a visit within 14 days of discharge. In a separate set of regression models, Annual Wellness Visits were associated with a 9% lower risk of readmission (HR, 0.91, 95% CI, 0.88-0.95), 45% higher risk of emergency department utilization (HR, 1.45, 95% CI, 1.40-1.49) and an 18% lower mortality risk (HR, 0.82, 95% CI, 0.75-0.89) compared with no Annual Wellness Visit in the year before the procedure.

CONCLUSIONS

Both postdischarge visits and the Medicare Annual Wellness Visit appear to be extremely underutilized among the older surgical population. In those patients who do utilize primary care, compared with propensity-matched patients who do not, our study suggests primary care use is associated with modestly lower readmission rates. Prospective studies are needed to determine whether targeted primary care involvement can reduce readmission.

Testing Machine Learning Models to Predict Postoperative Ileus after Colorectal Surgery

Background: Postoperative ileus (POI) is a common complication after colorectal surgery, leading to increased hospital stay and costs. This study aimed to explore patient comorbidities that contribute to the development of POI in the colorectal surgical population and compare machine learning (ML) model accuracy to existing risk instruments. Study Design: In a retrospective study, data were collected on 316 adult patients who underwent colorectal surgery from January 2020 to December 2021. The study excluded patients undergoing multi-visceral resections, re-operations, or combined primary and metastatic resections. Patients lacking follow-up within 90 days after surgery were also excluded. Eight different ML models were trained and cross-validated using 29 patient comorbidities and four comorbidity risk indices (ASA Status, NSQIP, CCI, and ECI). Results: The study found that 6.33% of patients experienced POI. Age, BMI, gender, kidney disease, anemia, arrhythmia, rheumatoid arthritis, and NSQIP score were identified as significant predictors of POI. The ML models with the greatest accuracy were AdaBoost tuned with grid search (94.2%) and XG Boost tuned with grid search (85.2%). Conclusions: This study suggests that ML models can predict the risk of POI with high accuracy and may offer a new frontier in early detection and intervention for postoperative outcome optimization. ML models can greatly improve the prediction and prevention of POI in colorectal surgery patients, which can lead to improved patient outcomes and reduced healthcare costs. Further research is required to validate and assess the replicability of these results.

A Frailty Index to Predict Mortality, Resource Utilization and Costs in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery in Ontario

Background

People living with frailty are vulnerable to poor outcomes and incur higher health care costs after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Frailty-defining instruments for population-level research in the CABG setting have not been established. The objectives of the study were to develop a preoperative frailty index for CABG (pFI-C) surgery using Ontario administrative data; assess pFI-C suitability in predicting clinical and economic outcomes; and compare pFI-C predictive capabilities with other indices.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using health administrative data of 50,682 CABG patients. The pFI-C comprised 27 frailty-related health deficits. Associations between index scores and mortality, resource use and health care costs (2022 Canadian dollars [CAD]) were assessed using multivariable regression models. Capabilities of the pFI-C in predicting mortality were evaluated using concordance statistics; goodness of fit of the models was assessed using Akakie Information Criterion.

Results

As assessed by the pFI-C, 22% of the cohort lived with frailty. The pFI-C score was strongly associated with mortality per 10% increase (odds ratio [OR], 3.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], [2.83,3.27]), and was significantly associated with resource utilization and costs. The predictive performances of the pFI-C, Charlson, and Elixhauser indices and Johns Hopkins Aggregated Diagnostic Groups were similar, and mortality models containing the pFI-C had a concordance (C)-statistic of 0.784. Cost models containing the pFI-C showed the best fit.

Conclusions

The pFI-C is predictive of mortality and associated with resource utilization and costs during the year following CABG. This index could aid in identifying a subgroup of high-risk CABG patients who could benefit from targeted perioperative health care interventions.

Healthcare costs for legally adjudicated elder mistreatment victims in comparison to non-mistreated older adults

BACKGROUND

Elder mistreatment (EM) is associated with adverse health outcomes and healthcare utilization patterns that differ from other older adults. However, the association of EM with healthcare costs has not been examined. Our goal was to compare healthcare costs between legally adjudicated EM victims and controls.

METHODS

We used Medicare insurance claims to examine healthcare costs of EM victims in the 2 years surrounding initial mistreatment identification in comparison to matched controls. We adjusted costs using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC) risk score.

RESULTS

We examined healthcare costs in 114 individuals who experienced EM and 410 matched controls. Total Medicare Parts A and B healthcare costs were similar between cases and controls in the 12 months prior to initial EM detection ($11,673 vs. $11,402, p = 0.92), but cases had significantly higher total healthcare costs during the 12 months after initial mistreatment identification ($15,927 vs. $10,805, p = 0.04). Adjusting for CMS-HCC scores, cases had, in the 12 months after initial EM identification, $5084 of additional total healthcare costs (95% confidence interval [$92, $10,077], p = 0.046) and $5817 of additional acute/subacute/post-acute costs (95% confidence interval [$1271, $10,362], p = 0.012) compared with controls. The significantly higher total costs and acute/sub-acute/post-acute costs among EM victims in the post-year were concentrated in the 120 days after EM detection.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults experiencing EM had substantially higher total costs during the 12 months after mistreatment identification, driven by an increase in acute/sub-acute/post-acute costs and focused on the period immediately after initial EM detection.

A multifactorial evaluation of objective performance indicators and video analysis in the context of case complexity and clinical outcomes in robotic-assisted cholecystectomy

BACKGROUND

The increased digitization in robotic surgical procedures today enables surgeons to quantify their movements through data captured directly from the robotic system. These calculations, called objective performance indicators (OPIs), offer unprecedented detail into surgical performance. In this study, we link case- and surgical step-specific OPIs to case complexity, surgical experience and console utilization, and post-operative clinical complications across 87 robotic cholecystectomy (RC) cases.

METHODS

Videos of RCs performed by a principal surgeon with and without fellows were segmented into eight surgical steps and linked to patients' clinical data. Data for OPI calculations were extracted from an Intuitive Data Recorder and the da Vinci ® robotic system. RC cases were each assigned a Nassar and Parkland Grading score and categorized as standard or complex. OPIs were compared across complexity groups, console attributions, and post-surgical complication severities to determine objective relationships across variables.

RESULTS

Across cases, differences in camera control and head positioning metrics of the principal surgeon were observed when comparing standard and complex cases. Further, OPI differences across the principal surgeon and the fellow(s) were observed in standard cases and include differences in arm swapping, camera control, and clutching behaviors. Monopolar coagulation energy usage differences were also observed. Select surgical step duration differences were observed across complexities and console attributions, and additional surgical task analyses determine the adhesion removal and liver bed hemostasis steps to be the most impactful steps for case complexity and post-surgical complications, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to establish the association between OPIs, case complexities, and clinical complications in RC. We identified OPI differences in intra-operative behaviors and post-surgical complications dependent on surgeon expertise and case complexity, opening the door for more standardized assessments of teaching cases, surgical behaviors and case complexities.

Impact of Bariatric Surgery on Mortality of Mitral Valve Surgery: A National Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Obesity is a common comorbidity of cardiac surgery patients. The goal of this study is to determine if a lower weight achieved through bariatric surgery has any association with mitral valve (MV) replacement or repair surgery mortality.

METHODS

This study used a retrospective analysis of the National Inpatient Sample dataset from 2012 to 2020. Adult patients who underwent MV surgery with normal weight following bariatric surgery (n = 1,125) and patients with obesity (n = 48,555) were compared. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

This study included 49,680 patients. The median age was 64 (55 to 71) years, and the majority were female (55%). Bariatric surgery was found to significantly decrease the odds of mortality, even after adjusting for important covariates, indicating a reduction of mortality risk by 54% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.46, p = 0.024). Other significant protective factors include isolated and elective surgery. Significant risk factors were older age, female sex, and diabetes mellitus. Patients who were obese demonstrated longer lengths of stay (LOS), greater transfers to other facilities, and higher hospital costs.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients receiving MV surgery, bariatric surgery demonstrated significant survival benefits during hospitalization, in addition to reducing LOS and cost. Our data support prior evidence of bariatric surgery improving cardiovascular outcomes. Therefore, bariatric surgery may be a meaningful method of weight loss to improve surgical patient outcomes in patients with obesity. However, longer-term data are needed.

Association of Established Primary Care Use With Postoperative Mortality Following Emergency General Surgery Procedures

Importance

Sixty-five million individuals in the US live in primary care shortage areas with nearly one-third of Medicare patients in need of a primary care health care professional. Periodic health examinations and preventive care visits have demonstrated a benefit for surgical patients; however, the impact of primary care health care professional shortages on adverse outcomes from surgery is largely unknown.

Objective

To determine if preoperative primary care utilization is associated with postoperative mortality following an emergency general surgery (EGS) operation among Black and White older adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a retrospective cohort study that took place at US hospitals with an emergency department. Participants were Medicare patients aged 66 years or older who were admitted from the emergency department for an EGS condition between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018, and underwent an operation on hospital day 0, 1, or 2. The analysis was performed during December 2022. Patients were classified into 1 of 5 EGS condition categories based on principal diagnosis codes; colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreatobiliary, intestinal obstruction, or upper gastrointestinal. Mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression was used in the risk-adjusted models. An interaction term model was used to measure effect modification by race.

Exposure

Primary care utilization in the year prior to presentation for an EGS operation.

Main Outcome and Measures

In-hospital, 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality.

Results

A total of 102 384 patients (mean age, 73.8 [SD, 11.5] years) were included in the study. Of those, 8559 were Black (8.4%) and 93 825 were White (91.6%). A total of 88 340 patients (86.3%) had seen a primary care physician in the year prior to their index hospitalization. After risk adjustment, patients with primary care exposure had 19% lower odds of in-hospital mortality than patients without primary care exposure (odds ratio [OR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.72-0.92). At 30 days patients with primary care exposure had 27% lower odds of mortality (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.80). This remained relatively stable at 60 days (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81), 90 days (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81), and 180 days (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.81). None of the interactions between race and primary care physician exposure for mortality at any time interval were significantly different.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this observational study of Black and White Medicare patients, primary care utilization had no impact on in-hospital mortality for Black patients, but was associated with decreased mortality for White patients. Primary care utilization was associated with decreased mortality for both Black and White patients at 30, 60, 90 and 180 days.

Predictors of outcomes in patients with obesity following mitral valve surgery

Objective

Few studies have assessed the outcomes of mitral valve surgery in patients with obesity. We sought to study factors that determine the in-hospital outcomes of this population to help clinicians provide optimal care.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of adult patients with obesity who underwent open mitral valve replacement or repair between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2020, was conducted using the National Inpatient Sample. Weighted logistic regression and random forest analyses were performed to assess factors associated with mortality and the interaction of each variable.

Results

Of the 48,775 patients with obesity, 34% had morbid obesity (body mass index ≥40), 55% were women, 66% underwent elective surgery, and 55% received isolated open mitral valve replacement or repair. In-hospital mortality was 5.0% (n = 2430). After adjusting for important covariates, a greater risk of mortality was associated with older patients (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.24; 95% CI, 1.08-1.43), higher Elixhauser comorbidity score (aOR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.87-2.36), prior valve surgery (aOR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.63), and more than 2 concomitant procedures (aOR, 2.83; 95% CI, 2.07-3.85). Lower mortality was associated with elective admissions (aOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.56-0.87) and valve repair (aOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.46-0.73). Machine learning identified several interactions associated with early mortality, such as Elixhauser score, female sex, body mass index ≥40, and kidney failure.

Conclusions

The complexity of presentation, comorbidities in older and female patients, and morbid obesity are independently associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients undergoing open mitral valve replacement or repair. Morbid obesity and sex disparity should be recognized in this population, and physicians should consider older patients and females with multiple comorbidities for earlier and more opportune treatment windows.

Does physical therapy impact clinical outcomes after lumbar decompression surgery?

Objectives

The objectives of our study were to (1) determine if physical therapy (PT) impacts patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) after lumbar decompression surgery and (2) determine if PT impacts postsurgical readmissions or reoperations after lumbar decompression surgery.

Methods

Patients >18 years of age who underwent primary one- or two-level lumbar decompression at our institution were identified. Patient demographics, surgical characteristics, surgical outcomes (all-cause 90 days readmissions and 90 days surgical readmissions), and patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) were compared between the groups. Multivariate linear regression was utilized to determine the individual predictors of 90 days readmissions and PROMs at the 1-year postoperative point. Alpha was set at P < 0.05.

Results

Of the 1003 patients included, 421 attended PT postoperatively. On univariate analysis, PT attendance did not significantly impact 90-day surgical reoperations (P = 0.225). Although bivariate analysis suggests that attendance of PT is associated with worse improvement in physical function (P = 0.041), increased preoperative Visual Analogue Scale leg pain (0 = 0.004), and disability (P = 0.006), as measured by the Oswestry Disability Index, our multivariate analysis, which accounts for confounding variables found there was no difference in PROM improvement and PT was not an independent predictor of 90-day all-cause readmissions (P = 0.06). Instead, Charlson Comorbidity Index (P = 0.025) and discharge to a skilled nursing facility (P = 0.013) independently predicted greater 90-day all-cause readmissions.

Conclusions

Postoperative lumbar decompression PT attendance does not significantly affect clinical improvement, as measured by PROMs or surgical outcomes including all-cause 90 days readmissions and 90-day surgical readmissions.

Surgical markup in lung cancer resection, 2015-2020

Objective

The objective of this study was to assess procedure markup (charge-to-cost ratio) across lung resection procedures and examine variability by geographic region.

Methods

Provider-level data for common lung resection operations was obtained from the 2015 to 2020 Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment Data datasets using Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System codes. Procedures studied included wedge resection; video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery; and open lobectomy, segmentectomy, and mediastinal and regional lymphadenectomy. Procedure markup ratio and coefficient of variation (CoV) was assessed and compared across procedure, region, and provider. The CoV, a measure of dispersion defined as the ratio of the SD to the mean, was likewise compared across procedure and region.

Results

Median markup ratio across all procedures was 3.56 (interquartile range, 2.87-4.59) with right skew (mean, 4.13). Median markup ratio was 3.59 for lymphadenectomy (CoV, 0.51), 3.13 for open lobectomy (CoV, 0.45), 3.55 for video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy (CoV, 0.59), 3.77 for segmentectomy (CoV, 0.74), and 3.80 for wedge resection (CoV, 0.67). Increased beneficiaries, services, and Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System score (total) were associated with a decreased markup ratio (P < .0001). Markup ratio was highest in the Northeast at 4.14 (interquartile range, 3.09-5.56) and lowest in the South (Markup ratio 3.26; interquartile range, 2.68-4.02).

Conclusions

We observe geographic variation in surgical billing for thoracic surgery.

Rural Disparities in Lung Cancer-directed Surgery: A Medicare Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

The primary objective of this study was to determine the influence of rural residence on access to and outcomes of lung cancer-directed surgery for Medicare beneficiaries.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancerrelated death in the United States and rural patients have 20% higher mortality. Drivers of rural disparities along the continuum of lung cancercare delivery are poorly understood.

METHODS

Medicare claims (2015-2018) were used to identify 126,352 older adults with an incident diagnosis of nonmetastatic lung cancer. Rural Urban Commuting Area codes were used to define metropolitan, micropolitan, small town, and rural site of residence. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated influence of place of residence on 1) receipt of cancer-directed surgery, 2) time from diagnosis to surgery, and 3) postoperative outcomes.

RESULTS

Metropolitan beneficiaries had higher rate of cancer-directed surgery (22.1%) than micropolitan (18.7%), small town (17.5%), and isolated rural (17.8%) (P < 0.001). Compared to patients from metropolitan areas, there were longer times from diagnosis to surgery for patients living in micropolitan, small, and rural communities. Multivariable models found nonmetropolitan residence to be associated with lower odds of receiving cancer-directed surgery and MIS. Nonmetropolitan residence was associated with higher odds of having postoperative emergency department visits.

CONCLUSIONS

Residence in nonmetropolitan areas is associated with lower probability of cancer-directed surgery, increased time to surgery, decreased use of MIS, and increased postoperative ED visits. Attention to timely access to surgery and coordination of postoperative care for nonmetropolitan patients could improve care delivery.

Comparative performance of three comorbidity scores in predicting survival after the elective repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms

BACKGROUND

We aimed to study the discriminative power of 3 comorbidity scores for predicting 5-year survival after the elective repair of aorto-iliac aneurysms (AAA).

METHODS

444 patients with AAA undergoing elective repair (33% open and 67% endovascular) between 2000 and 2020 were reviewed. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and subsequent adjustments by Schneeweiss, Quan and Armitage, the Modified Frailty Index (MFI) and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Score (ASA) were calculated from preoperative data. Their association with 5-year survival was analyzed using Cox regression models and their discriminative power and its changes with C statistics and Net Reclassification Index (NRI).

RESULTS

All comorbidity scores were associated with survival after adjusting by age, sex and type of surgical repair: original CCI HR=1.24, P<0.001; Schneeweiss CCI HR=1.23, P<0.001; Quan CCI HR=1.27, P<0.001, Armitage CCI HR=1.46, P<0.001, MFI HR=1.39, P<0.001 and ASA HR=1.68 (P=0.04) and 2.86 (P=0.01) for classes III and IV, respectively. Associated C statistics were of 0.64, 0.65, 0.65, 0.64, 0.61 and 0.59, respectively. Compared with the original CCI, models based on Schneeweiss CCI and Armitage CCI provided minor improvements in NRI (0.32 and 0.23), and the model based on ASA showed lower C statistics (P=0.014) and NRI (-0.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Established comorbidity scores, such as CCI, MFI or ASA, are all associated with 5-year survival after the elective repair of AAAs, being ASA the worst of them. However, their predictive power is in no case sufficient to identify, by themselves, those patients who may not be eligible for intervention on the basis of life expectancy.

Emergency Department and Hospital Utilization Among Older Adults Before and After Identification of Elder Mistreatment

Importance

Elder mistreatment is common and has serious health consequences. Little is known, however, about patterns of health care utilization among older adults experiencing elder mistreatment.

Objective

To examine emergency department (ED) and hospital utilization of older adults experiencing elder mistreatment in the period surrounding initial mistreatment identification compared with other older adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective case-control study used Medicare insurance claims to examine older adults experiencing elder mistreatment initially identified between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2012, and control participants matched on age, sex, race and ethnicity, and zip code. Statistical analysis was performed in April 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

We used multiple measures of ED and hospital utilization patterns (eg, new and return visits, frequency, urgency, and hospitalizations) in the 12 months before and after mistreatment identification. Data were adjusted using US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Categories risk scores. Chi-squared tests and conditional logistic regression models were used for data analyses.

Results

This study included 114 case patients and 410 control participants. Their median age was 72 years (IQR, 68-78 years), and 340 (64.9%) were women. Race and ethnicity were reported as racial or ethnic minority (114 [21.8%]), White (408 [77.9%]), or unknown (2 [0.4%]). During the 24 months surrounding identification of elder mistreatment, older adults experiencing mistreatment were more likely to have had an ED visit (77 [67.5%] vs 179 [43.7%]; adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.95 [95% CI, 1.78-4.91]; P < .001) and a hospitalization (44 [38.6%] vs 108 [26.3%]; AOR, 1.90 [95% CI, 1.13-3.21]; P = .02) compared with other older adults. In addition, multiple ED visits, at least 1 ED visit for injury, visits to multiple EDs, high-frequency ED use, return ED visits within 7 days, ED visits for low-urgency issues, multiple hospitalizations, at least 1 hospitalization for injury, hospitalization at multiple hospitals, and hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions were substantially more likely for individuals experiencing elder mistreatment. The rate of ED and hospital utilization for older adults experiencing elder mistreatment was much higher in the 12 months after identification than before, leading to more pronounced differences between case patients and control participants in postidentification utilization. During the 12 months after identification of elder mistreatment, older adults experiencing mistreatment were particularly more likely to have had high-frequency ED use (12 [10.5%] vs 8 [2.0%]; AOR, 8.23 [95% CI, 2.56-26.49]; P < .001) and to have visited the ED for low-urgency issues (12 [10.5%] vs 8 [2.0%]; AOR, 7.33 [95% CI, 2.54-21.18]; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this case-control study of health care utilization, older adults experiencing mistreatment used EDs and hospitals more frequently and with different patterns during the period surrounding mistreatment identification than other older adults. Additional research is needed to better characterize these patterns, which may be helpful in informing early identification, intervention, and prevention of elder mistreatment.

Racial disparities in endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) utilization in the United States: are we getting better?

BACKGROUND

We identified trends of inpatient therapeutic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in the United States (US), focusing on outcomes related to specific patient demographics.

METHODS

The National Inpatient Sample was utilized to identify all adult inpatient ERCP in the US between 2007-2018. Trends of utilization and adverse outcomes were highlighted. P-values ≤ 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

We noted a rising trend for total inpatient ERCP in the US from 126,921 in 2007 to 165,555 in 2018 (p = 0.0004), with a significant increase in utilization for Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. Despite an increasing comorbidity burden [Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score ≥ 2], the overall inpatient mortality declined from 1.56% [2007] to 1.46% [2018] without a statistically significant trend (p = 0.14). Moreover, there was a rising trend of inpatient mortality for Black and Hispanic populations, while a decline was noted for Asians. After a comparative analysis, we noted higher rates of inpatient mortality for Blacks (2.4% vs 1.82%, p = 0.0112) and Hispanics (1.17% vs 0.83%, p = 0.0052) at urban teaching hospitals between July toand September compared to the October to June study period; however, we did not find a statistically significant difference for the Asian cohort (1.9% vs 2.10%, p = 0.56). The mean length of stay (LOS) decreased from 7 days in 2007 to 6 days in 2018 (p < 0.0001), while the mean total hospital charge (THC) increased from $48,883 in 2007 to $85,909 in 2018 (p < 0.0001) for inpatient ERCPs. Compared to the 2015-2018 study period, we noted higher rates of post-ERCP pancreatitis (27.76% vs 17.25%, p < 0.0001) from 2007-2014.

CONCLUSION

Therapeutic ERCP utilization and inpatient mortality were on the rise for a subset of the American minority population, including Black and Hispanics.

Development and Validation of the Summary Elixhauser Comorbidity Score for Use With ICD-10-CM-Coded Data Among Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Older adults have many comorbidities contributing to mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a summary Elixhauser (S-Elixhauser) comorbidity score to predict 30-day, in-hospital, and 1-year mortality in older adults using the 38 comorbidities operationalized by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Medicare beneficiaries from 2017 to 2019.

PATIENTS

Persons hospitalized in 2018 (n = 899 844) and 3 disease-specific hospitalized cohorts.

MEASUREMENTS

Weights were derived for 38 comorbidities to predict 30-day, in-hospital, and 1-year mortality. The S-Elixhauser score was internally validated and calibrated. Individual Elixhauser comorbidity indicators (38 comorbidities), the modified application of the AHRQ-derived Elixhauser summary score, the Charlson comorbidity indicators (17 comorbidities), and the Charlson summary score were externally validated. The c-statistic was used to evaluate discrimination of a comorbidity score model.

RESULTS

The S-Elixhauser score was well calibrated and internally validated, with a c-statistic of 0.705 (95% CI, 0.703 to 0.707) in predicting 30-day mortality, 0.654 (CI, 0.651 to 0.657) for in-hospital mortality, and 0.743 (CI, 0.741 to 0.744) for 1-year mortality. In external validation of other comorbidity indices for 30-day mortality, the c-statistic was 0.711 (CI, 0.709 to 0.713) for the individual Elixhauser comorbidity indicators, 0.688 (CI, 0.686 to 0.690) for the AHRQ Elixhauser score, 0.696 (CI, 0.694 to 0.698) for the Charlson comorbidity indicators, and 0.690 (CI, 0.688 to 0.693) for the Charlson summary score. In 3 disease-specific populations, the discrimination of the S-Elixhauser score in predicting 30-day mortality ranged from 0.657 to 0.732.

LIMITATION

Validation of the S-Elixhauser comorbidity score and head-to-head comparison with other comorbidity scores in an external population are needed to evaluate comparative performance.

CONCLUSION

The S-Elixhauser comorbidity score is well calibrated and internally validated but its advantage over the AHRQ Elixhauser and Charlson summary scores is unclear.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Aging.

Dually Insured Medicare/Medicaid Patients Undergoing Primary TJA Have More Comorbidities, Higher Complication Rates, and Lower Reimbursements Compared to Privately Insured Patients

BACKGROUND

Dual eligibility status (DES: qualifying for both Medicare and a Medicaid supplement) was recently proposed by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services as a socioeconomic qualifier for risk adjustment in primary total joint arthroplasty. However, the profile and outcomes of DES patients have never been compared to privately insured patients.

METHODS

A retrospective case-control study of the Mariner database within the PearlDiver server between 2010 and 2017 was performed. Patients aged 60 to 80 undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) (separately) were stratified based upon payer type: DES versus private payer. A propensity score-matched analysis with nearest neighbor pairing (1:1 ratio) was performed to compare 90-day outcomes and reimbursements.

RESULTS

A total of 315,664 private and 3961 DES THA patients and 670,899 private and 2255 DES TKA patients were identified. DES patients were older and had a greater prevalence of comorbidities (31/36, P < .001). The THA DES matched cohort had greater transfusion rates (6.8% versus 3.9%, P < .001), higher 90-day emergency department visits (22.8% versus 16.3%, P < .001) and readmissions (16.8% versus 9.5%, P < .001), and lower reimbursements ($19,615 versus $13,036, P < .001). The TKA DES matched cohort had more cardiac events (0.4% versus 0.09%, P = .03), emergency department visits (25.2% versus 19.9%, P < .001), readmissions (14.4% versus 11.2%, P = .001), and reoperations (0.85% versus 0.35%, P = .03) CONCLUSION: DES patients have different comorbidity profiles, and even after propensity score matching have a greater risk of complications and are reimbursed less compared to privately insured patients. In the setting of alternative payment models, these differences should be accounted for through risk adjustment.

Multimorbidity Confers Greater Risk for Older Patients in Emergency General Surgery Than the Presence of Multiple Comorbidities: A Retrospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the impact of multimorbidity on outcomes for older emergency general surgery patients.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to understand whether having multiple comorbidities confers the same amount of risk as specific combinations of comorbidities (multimorbidity) for a patient undergoing emergency general surgery.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Retrospective observational study using state discharge data.

SUBJECTS

Medicare beneficiaries who underwent an operation for an emergency general surgery condition in New York, Florida, or Pennsylvania (2012-2013).

MEASURES

Patients were classified as multimorbid using Qualifying Comorbidity Sets (QCSs). Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay and discharge status.

RESULTS

Of 312,160 patients, a large minority (37.4%) were multimorbid. Non-QCS patients did not have a specific combination of comorbidities to satisfy a QCS, but 64.1% of these patients had 3+ comorbid conditions. Multimorbidity was associated with increased in-hospital mortality (10.5% vs. 3.9%, P <0.001), decreased rates of discharge to home (16.2% vs. 37.1%, P <0.001), and longer length of stay (10.4 d±13.5 vs. 6.7 d±9.3, P <0.001) when compared with non-QCS patients. Risks varied between individual QCSs.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity, defined by satisfying a specific QCS, is strongly associated with poor outcomes for older patients requiring emergency general surgery in the United States. Variation in risk of in-hospital mortality, discharge status, and length of stay between individual QCSs suggests that multimorbidity does not carry the same prognostic weight as having multiple comorbidities-the specifics of which are important in setting expectations for individual, complex patients.

Evaluation of risk adjustment performance of diagnosis-based and medication-based comorbidity indices in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Objectives

This study assessed risk adjustment performance of six comorbidity indices in two categories of comorbidity measures: diagnosis-based comorbidity indices and medication-based ones in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Methods

This was a population–based retrospective cohort study. Data used in this study were sourced from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The study population comprised all patients who were hospitalized due to COPD for the first time in the target year of 2012. Each qualified patient was individually followed for one year starting from the index date to assess two outcomes of interest, medical expenditures within one year after discharge and in-hospital mortality of patients. To assess how well the added comorbidity measures would improve the fitted model, we calculated the log-likelihood ratio statistic G2. Subsequently, we compared risk adjustment performance of the comorbidity indices by using the Harrell c-statistic measure derived from multiple logistic regression models.

Results

Analytical results demonstrated that that comorbidity measures were significant predictors of medical expenditures and mortality of COPD patients. Specifically, in the category of diagnosis-based comorbidity indices the Elixhauser index was superior to other indices, while the RxRisk-V index was a stronger predictor in the framework of medication-based codes, for gauging both medical expenditures and in-hospital mortality by utilizing information from the index hospitalization only as well as the index and prior hospitalizations.

Conclusions

In conclusion, this work has ascertained that comorbidity indices are significant predictors of medical expenditures and mortality of COPD patients. Based on the study findings, we propose that when designing the payment schemes for patients with chronic diseases, the health authority should make adjustments in accordance with the burden of health care caused by comorbid conditions.

Predicting postoperative complications in pediatric surgery: A novel pediatric comorbidity index

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND

Comorbidity-driven surgical risk assessment is essential for informed patient counseling, risk-stratification, and outcomes-based health-services research. Existing mortality-focused comorbidity indices have had mixed success at risk-adjustment in children.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a new comorbidity-driven multispecialty surgical risk index predicting 30-day postoperative complications in children.

STUDY DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study investigated children undergoing surgical procedures across seven specialties in 2014-2015 using the MarketScan® Research databases. The risk index was derived separately for ambulatory and inpatient surgery patients using logistic regression with backward selection. The performance of the novel index in discriminating postoperative complications vis-à-vis three existing comorbidity indices was compared using bootstrapping and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC).

RESULTS

We identified 190,629 ambulatory and 22,633 inpatient patients. The novel index had the best performance for discriminating postoperative complications for inpatients (AUC 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.77) relative to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI, 0.56, 95% CI 0.56-0.57), Van Walraven Index (VWI, 0.60, 95% CI 0.60-0.61), and Rhee Score (RS, 0.69, 95% CI 0.68-0.70). In the ambulatory cohort, the novel index outperformed all three existing indices, though none demonstrated excellent discriminatory ability for complications (novel score 0.68, 95% CI 0.67-0.68; CCI 0.53, 95% CI 0.52-0.53; VWI 0.53, 95% CI 0.52-0.53; RS 0.50, 95% CI 0.49-0.50).

DISCUSSION

In both inpatient and ambulatory pediatric settings, our novel comorbidity index demonstrated better performance at predicting postoperative complications than three widely used alternatives. This index will be useful for research and may be adaptable to clinical settings to identify high-risk patients and facilitate perioperative planning.

CONCLUSION

We developed a novel pediatric comorbidity index with better performance at predicting postoperative complications than three widely used alternatives.

The Impact of Diabetes on Outcomes and Health Care Costs Following Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES

Anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) is commonly used to treat an array of cervical spine pathology and is associated with good outcomes and low complication rates. Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a common comorbidity for patients undergoing ACDF, but the literature is equivocal about the impact it has on outcomes. Because DM is a highly prevalent comorbidity, it is crucial to determine if it is an associated risk factor for outcomes after ACDF procedures.

METHODS

Patients at a single institution from 2008 to 2016 undergoing ACDF were compared on the basis of having a prior diagnosis of DM versus no DM. The 2 cohorts were compared utilizing univariate tests and multivariate logistic and linear regressions.

RESULTS

Data for 2470 patients was analyzed. Diabetic patients had significantly higher Elixhauser scores (P < .0001). Univariate testing showed diabetic patients were more likely to suffer from sepsis (0.82% vs 0.10%, P = .03) and bleeding complications (3.0% vs 1.5%, P = .04). In multivariate analyses, diabetic patients had higher rates of non-home discharge (odds ratio [OR] = 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-1.75, P = .013) and prolonged length of stay (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.25-3.05, P = .003), but similar complication (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 0.85-2.52, P = .17), reoperation (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.33-1.81, P = .55), and 90-day readmission (OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 0.97-2.43) rates compared to nondiabetic patients. Direct cost was also shown to be similar between the cohorts after adjusting for patient, surgical, and hospital-related factors (estimate = -$30.25, 95% CI = -$515.69 to $455.18, P = .90).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetic patients undergoing ACDF had similar complication, reoperation, and readmission rates, as well as similar cost of care compared to nondiabetic patients.

Association Between Organizational Quality and Out-of-Network Primary Care Among Accountable Care Organizations That Care for High vs Low Proportions of Patients of Racial and Ethnic Minority Groups

Question

How is the quality of care delivered by a Medicare accountable care organization (ACO) associated with the level of out-of-network primary care among organizations that care for high vs low proportions of patients of racial and ethnic minority groups?

Findings

In this retrospective cohort study of 3 955 951 beneficiary-years within 528 Medicare ACOs, the ACOs that cared for more patients of racial and ethnic minority groups had significantly higher rates of out-of-network primary care than those that cared for fewer patients of racial and ethnic minority groups. The level of out-of-network primary care was negatively associated with performance among ACOs with many patients of racial and ethnic minority groups across most quality metrics examined.

Meaning

The study findings suggest that organizational efforts to limit out-of-network primary care at ACOs caring for many patients of racial and ethnic minority groups could serve as a tangible, accessible corrective for reducing health care disparities among the populations that they serve.

Importance

Medicare accountable care organizations (ACOs) that disproportionately care for patients of racial and ethnic minority groups deliver lower quality care than those that do not, potentially owing to differences in out-of-network primary care among them.

Objective

To examine how organizational quality is associated with out-of-network primary care among ACOs that care for high vs low proportions of patients of racial and ethnic minority groups.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort study was conducted between March 2019 and October 2021 using claims data (2013 to 2016) from a national sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Among beneficiaries who were assigned to 1 of 528 Medicare ACOs, a distinction was made between those treated by organizations that cared for high (vs low) proportions of patients of racial and ethnic minority groups. For each ACO, the amount of out-of-network primary care that it delivered annually was determined. Multivariable models were fit to evaluate how the quality of care that beneficiaries received varied by the proportion of care provided to patients of racial and ethnic minority groups by the ACO and its amount of out-of-network primary care.

Exposures

The degree of care provided to patients of racial and ethnic minority groups by the ACO and its amount of out-of-network primary care.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The ACO quality assessed with 5 preventive care services and 4 utilization metrics.

Results

Among 3 955 951 beneficiary-years (2 320 429 [58.7%] women; 71 218 [1.8%] Asian, 267 684 [6.8%] Black, 44 059 [1.1%] Hispanic, 4922 [0.1%] North American Native, and 3 468 987 [87.7%] White individuals and 56 157 [1.4%] of Other race and ethnicity), those assigned to ACOs serving many patients of racial and ethnic minority groups at the mean level of out-of-network primary care were less likely than those assigned to ACOs serving fewer patients of racial and ethnic minority groups to receive diabetic retinal examinations (predicted probability, 49.4% [95%CI, 49.0%-49.7%] vs 51.6% [95% CI, 51.5%-51.8%]), glycated hemoglobin testing (predicted probability, 58.5% [95% CI, 58.2%-58.5%] vs 60.4% [95% CI, 60.3%-60.6%]), or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol testing (predicted probability, 85.2% [95% CI, 85.0%-85.5%] vs 86.0% [95% CI, 85.9%-86.1%]). They were also more likely to experience all-cause 30-day readmissions (predicted probability, 16.4% [95% CI, 16.1%-16.7%] vs 15.7% [95% CI, 15.6%-15.8%]). However, as the level of out-of-network primary care decreased, these gaps closed substantially, such that beneficiaries at ACOs that served many and fewer patients of racial and ethnic minority groups in the lowest percentile of out-of-network primary care received care of comparable quality.

Conclusions and Relevance

This large cohort study found that quality performance among ACOs serving many patients of racial and ethnic minority groups was negatively associated with their level of out-of-network primary care.

Patients From Medically Underserved Areas Are at Increased Risk for Nonhome Discharge and Emergency Department Return After Total Joint Arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

Maryland Health Enterprise Zones (MHEZs) were introduced in 2012 and encompass underserved areas and those with reduced access to healthcare providers. Across the United States many underserved and minority populations experience poorer total joint arthroplasty (TJA) outcomes seemingly because they reside in underserved areas. The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the relationship between living in an MHEZ and TJA outcomes.

METHODS

Retrospective review of 11,451 patients undergoing primary TJA at a single institution from July 1, 2014 to June 30, 2020 was conducted. Patients were classified based on whether they resided in an MHEZ. Statistical analyses were used to compare outcomes for TJA patients who live in MHEZ and those who do not.

RESULTS

Of the 11,451 patients, 1057 patients lived in MHEZ and 10,394 patients did not. After risk adjustment, patients who live in an MHEZ were more likely to return to the emergency department within 90 days postoperatively and were less likely to be discharged home than those patients who do not live in an MHEZ.

CONCLUSION

Total joint arthroplasty patients residing in MHEZ appear to present with poorer overall health as measured by increased American Society of Anesthesiologists and Hierarchical Condition Categories scores, and they are less likely to be discharged home and more likely to return to the emergency department within 90 days. Several factors associated with these findings such as socioeconomic factors, household composition, housing type, disability, and transportation may be modifiable and should be targets of future population health initiatives.

Use of Preventive Care Services and Hospitalization Among Medicare Beneficiaries in Accountable Care Organizations That Exited the Shared Savings Program

Question

How is the exit of an accountable care organization (ACO) from the Medicare Shared Savings Program (SSP) associated with clinical quality delivered to beneficiaries, and does the association change over time after exit?

Findings

In this cohort study of more than 1.7 million Medicare beneficiaries, SSP exit was associated with considerably lower rates of preventive service use, though not associated with rates of hospital utilization. These associations differed depending on how far removed an ACO was from SSP participation, where the reductions in clinical quality were most prominent in the first 2 years after exit.

Meaning

Observations of declines in clinical quality after ACO exit from the SSP are important given recent changes to the SSP that could accelerate program exit.

Importance

Thirty percent of Medicare accountable care organizations (ACOs) in the Shared Savings Program (SSP) have exited within 5 years of joining. Absent the potential for shared savings, exiting ACOs may choose to divest from costly resources needed to support population health, worsening clinical quality for beneficiaries aligned to these organizations.

Objective

To examine the associations of SSP exit with clinical quality delivered to Medicare beneficiaries.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2019 and 2020 using national Medicare claims data from a 20% random sample of beneficiaries. A total of 1 713 237 beneficiaries were aligned with an SSP ACO at some point between 2012 and 2016. Distinction was made between those for whom the ACO to which they were aligned exited the SSP and those whose ACO stayed in the program. By comparing exiting ACOs with those that stayed in the SSP, changes in the quality of care that a beneficiary received before and after the aligned ACO exited the SSP were evaluated. Whether findings associated with exit varied with respect to the number of years after exit was also examined.

Exposures

Exiting the SSP and the number of years after exit.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Receipt of annual preventive care services and hospital utilization.

Results

Among the cohort of 1 713 237 beneficiaries (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 75.20 [7.96] years), 998 511 (58.3%) were female, 126 123 (7.4%) were Black, and 1 482 823 (86.6%) were White. Exiting the SSP was associated with statistically significantly lower rates of annual glycated hemoglobin A_1c testing (odds ratio [OR], 0.74; 95% CI, 0.68-0.81), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol testing (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.97), and all diabetes complication screening (OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.81-0.97) for beneficiaries with diabetes. The exit was not associated with rates of hospital utilization in terms of emergency department visits and 30-day readmission after SSP exit. The associations with exit depended on the length of time since contracts ended. For example, the baseline rate of annual glycated hemoglobin A_1c testing was 89.8% (95% CI, 89.5%-90.1%) but fell to 86.9% (95% CI, 85.9%-88.0%) and 86.8% (95% CI, 85.0%-88.5%) in years 1 and 2 after exit, respectively, but then rose to 91.9% (95% CI, 85.3%-98.5%) in year 3.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries, SSP exit was associated with modest declines in clinical quality. These findings are timely given recent SSP changes that could accelerate program exit.

Death after surgery among patients with chronic disease: prospective study of routinely collected data in the English NHS

BACKGROUND

Five million surgeries take place in the NHS each year. Little is known about the prevalence of chronic diseases among these patients, and the association with postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

Analysis of routine data from all NHS hospitals in England including patients aged ≥18 yr undergoing non-obstetric surgery between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. The primary outcome was death within 90 days after surgery. For each chronic disease, we adjusted for age, sex, presence of other diseases, emergency surgery, and year using logistic regression models. We defined high-risk diseases as those with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) for death ≥2 and report associated 2-yr survival.

RESULTS

We included 8 624 611 patients (median age, 53 [36-68] yr), of whom 6 913 451 (80.2%) underwent elective surgery and 1 711 160 (19.8%) emergency surgery. Overall, 2 311 600 (26.8%) patients had a chronic disease, of whom 109 686 (4.7%) died within 90 days compared with 24 136 (0.4%) of 6 313 011 without chronic disease. Respiratory disease (1 002 281 [11.6%]), diabetes mellitus (662 706 [7.7%]), and cancer (310 363; 3.6%) were the most common. Four chronic diseases accounted for 7.7% of patients but 59.0% of deaths: cancer (37 693 deaths [12.1%]; OR=8.3 [8.2-8.5]), liver disease (8638 deaths [10.3%]; OR=4.5 [4.4-4.7]), cardiac failure (26 604 deaths [12.6%]; OR=2.4 [2.4-2.5]), and dementia (19 912 deaths [17.9%]; OR=2.0 [1.9-2.0]). Two-year survival was 67.7% among patients with high-risk chronic disease, compared with 97.1% without.

CONCLUSION

One in four surgical patients has a chronic disease with an associated 10-fold increase in risk of postoperative death. Two-thirds of all deaths after surgery occur among patients with high-risk diseases (cancer, cardiac failure, liver disease, dementia).

Superiority of craniotomy over supportive care for octogenarians and nonagenarians in operable acute traumatic subdural hematoma

OBJECTIVE

Neurosurgical evacuation in elderly trauma patients is controversial. We analyzed impact of craniotomy for acute subdural hematoma on survival in octogenarians and nonagenarians. Methods The study population included all patients aged ≥ 80 years who presented with acute traumatic SDHs 09/01/15 - 01/01/20, with radiography indicating operative eligibility (i.e. MLS >5 mm and/or overall thickness >10 mm). Of 1054 TBIs aged ≥ 80 years, 104 (9.87%) were surgically indicated. Of these, 35 received craniotomy and 69 received supportive measures due to family/patient wishes or surgeon's professional decision. We analyzed these data using a Poisson regression adjusted for influence of covariates.

RESULTS

Of 35 craniotomies, 21 (60.00%) were deceased at 2 years of follow-up, compared to 48 (69.57%) deceased of 69 non-surgical patients. No significant demographic differences existed between these groups, other than age (craniotomy patients were younger; median age 84 vs 86; p < 0.001). In outcomes, the craniotomy cohort survived longer and in higher proportions (p = 0.028; Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon). When adjusting for covariates, this effect became more pronounced: craniotomy patients died at 41.1% the rate of non-surgical ones. Of all the covariates, only initial GCS significantly impacted the protective effect of craniotomy. In a logarithmic relationship, each point on initial GCS was associated with less benefit from surgery. We also found that patients with GCS< 3 were overall less likely to benefit from surgery. Our conclusions are limited by the impact of patient/surgeon choice on whether or not to operate. It is possible healthier subjects elected for craniotomies. We have attempted to correct for this by including comorbidities as covariates in our regression analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate a surgical benefit for this elderly cohort, consistent with prior findings of benefit in the setting of severe traumatic aSDH. Patients with worse neurologic impairment, i.e. low GCS, had the greatest survival benefit from surgical intervention.

Influence of pre-existing multimorbidity on receiving a hip arthroplasty: cohort study of 28 025 elderly subjects from UK primary care

The median age for total hip arthroplasty (THA) is over 70 years with the corollary that many individuals have multiple multimorbidities. Despite the predicted improvement in quality of life, THA might be denied even to those with low levels of multimorbidity.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate how pre-existing levels of multimorbidity influence the likelihood and timing of THA.

SETTING

Longitudinal record linkage study of a UK sample linking their primary care to their secondary care records.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 28 025 patients were included, based on the recording of the diagnosis of hip osteoarthritis in a national primary care register, Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Data were extracted from the database on background health and morbidity status using five different constructs: Charlson Comorbidity Index, Electronic Frailty Index and counts of chronic diseases (from list of 17), prescribed medications and number of primary care visits prior to recording of osteoarthritis.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The record of having received a THA as recorded in the primary care record and the linked secondary care database: Hospital Episode Statistics.

RESULTS

40% had THA: median follow 10 months (range 1-17 years). Increased multimorbidity was associated with a decreased likelihood of undergoing THA, irrespective of the method of assessing multimorbidity although the impact varied by approach.

CONCLUSION

Markers of pre-existing ill health influence the decision for THA in the elderly with end-stage hip osteoarthritis, although these effects are modest for indices of multimorbidity other than eFI. There is evidence of this influence being present even in people with moderate decrements in their health, despite the balance of benefits to risk in these individuals being positive.

The Charlson and Elixhauser Scores Outperform the American Society of Anesthesiologists Score in Assessing 1-year Mortality Risk After Hip Fracture Surgery

BACKGROUND

Risk adjustment has implications across orthopaedics, including informing clinical care, improving payment models, and enabling observational orthopaedic research. Although comorbidity indices (such as the American Society of Anesthesiologists [ASA] classification, Charlson comorbidity index [CCI], and Elixhauser comorbidity index [ECI]) have been examined extensively in the immediate perioperative period, there is a dearth of data on their three-way comparative effectiveness and long-term performance. Moreover, the discriminative ability of the CCI and ECI after orthopaedic surgery has not been validated in the ICD-10 era, despite new diagnosis codes from which they are calculated.

QUESTION/PURPOSE

Which comorbidity index (ASA, CCI, or ECI) is associated with the greatest accuracy on receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis with respect to the endpoint of death at 90 days and 1 year after hip fracture surgery in the ICD-10 era?

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on all patients undergoing surgical fixation of primary hip fractures at two Level I trauma centers and three community hospitals from October 2016 to May 2019. This time frame allowed for a 1-year baseline period of ICD-10 data to assess comorbidities and at least a 1-year follow-up period to assess mortality. Initially 1516 patients were identified using Common Procedural Terminology and ICD codes, of whom 4% (60 of 1516) were excluded after manual review; namely, those with pathologic fractures (n = 38), periprosthetic fractures (n = 12), and age younger than 18 years (n = 10). Of the patients who were studied, 69% (998 of 1456) were women and the mean ± SD age was 77 ± 14 years; 45% (656 of 1456) were treated with intramedullary nails, 32% (464 of 1456) underwent hemiarthroplasties, 10% (149 of 1456) underwent THAs, 7% (104 of 1456) underwent percutaneous fixations, and 6% (83 of 1456) were treated with plates and screws. The mean ± SD ASA score was 2.8 ± 0.6, CCI was 3.1 ± 3.2, and ECI was 5.2 ± 3.5. Hip fracture fixation was chosen as the operation of interest given the high incidence of this injury, the well-documented effects of comorbidities on complications, and the critical importance of risk stratification and perioperative medical management for these patients. Demographics, comorbidities, surgical details, as well as 90-day and 1-year mortality were collected. Logistic regressions with ROC curves were used to determine the accuracy and comparative effectiveness of the three measures. The 90-day mortality rate was 7.4%, and the 1-year mortality rate was 15.0%.

RESULTS

The accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]) for 1-year mortality was 0.685 (95% CI 0.656 to 0.714) for the ASA, 0.755 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.788) for the ECI, and 0.769 (95% CI 0.739 to 0.800) for the CCI. The CCI and ECI were more accurate than ASA (p < 0.001 for both), while the CCI and ECI did not differ (p = 0.30). The ECI (AUC 0.756 [95% CI 0.712 to 0.800]) was more accurate for 90-day mortality than the ASA (AUC 0.703 [95% CI 0.663 to 0.744]; p = 0.04), while CCI (AUC 0.742 [95% CI 0.698 to 0.785]) with ASA (p = 0.17) and CCI with ECI (p = 0.46) did not differ at 90 days.

CONCLUSION

Performance measures and research results may vary depending on what comorbidity index is used. We found that the CCI and ECI were more accurate than the ASA score for 1-year mortality after hip fracture surgery. Moreover, these data validate that the CCI and ECI can perform reliably in the ICD-10 era. If other studies from additional practice settings confirm these findings, as would be expected because of the objective nature of these indices, the CCI or ECI may be a useful preoperative measure for surgeons to assess 1-year mortality for hip fracture patients and should likely be used for institutional orthopaedic research involving outcomes 90 days and beyond.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, diagnostic study.

Understanding the Health Characteristics and Treatment Choices of Older Men with Stress Urinary Incontinence

OBJECTIVE

To describe the health characteristics and current treatment choices of male stress urinary incontinence (mSUI) patients to inform patient-centered decision-making.

METHODS

We identified a cohort of mSUI patients aged ≥65 at UCSF and San Francisco VA. Using retrospective chart review and telephone interviews, we ascertained demographics, incontinence characteristics, Charlson Comorbidity Index (score ≥ 4 indicates significant morbidity), frailty with Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, functional dependence with activities of daily living (ADL), calculated life expectancy, and assessed mental health and quality of life (QOL). Bivariate analysis evaluated associations between subject characteristics and ultimate treatment type (conservative vs surgery; sling vs sphincter). Logistic multivariable models evaluating treatment choice were also constructed.

RESULTS

The 130 participants had a mean age of 75 and a mean incontinence score of 14.2 representing moderately bothersome incontinence. Nearly 80% had significant morbidity, three-quarters had >50% 10-year mortality risk, 10% needed help with 1 + ADL and 22% had a TUG >10 seconds indicating frailty. The mean physical and mental QOL scores were similar to the general population. Anxiety and depression were reported by 3.9% and 10%. In univariate and multivariable analysis, only incontinence characteristics were associated with conservative vs surgical treatment choice (P < .01).

CONCLUSION

Multi-morbidity, functional dependence, frailty, and limited life expectancy are common among older men with mSUI, yet current treatment choices appear to be driven by incontinence characteristics. As such, mSUI surgery should be considered among men across the spectrum of health and life expectancy.

Factors influencing treatment decision and guideline conformity in high-grade endometrial cancer patients: a population-based study

PURPOSE

Treatment according to guidelines has been demonstrated to improve survival in a number of different cancer entities. Deviations from guidelines depend on several factors, including the patient's preferences, age and comorbidities. The aim of this study was to assess the adherence to guideline recommendations concerning surgical and adjuvant treatment in endometrial cancer. Furthermore, we sought to evaluate the reasons for non-adherence to guidelines by further examining the influence of comorbidities and age.

METHODS

The influence of age, comorbidities, tumor stage and histological subtype on guideline adherence was evaluated by multivariable logistic regression in a cohort of 353 high-grade endometrial cancer patients. High-grade endometrial cancer was defined as carcinosarcoma, Type II (serous, clear cell, mixed cell carcinoma) and Type I G3 histology.

RESULTS

Extensive surgical procedures, particularly systematic LNE, were less frequently applied in patients with comorbidities (p = 0.015) or higher age (p < 0.01). Guideline adherence was not affected by comorbidities (p = 0.563), but was significantly reduced with higher age (p < 0.01). In a multivariable model, higher age (p < 0.01), obesity (p = 0.011), higher FIGO Stage (p < 0.01) and histologic subtype (p < 0.01) significantly decreased OS. Surgery (p < 0.001), chemotherapy (p < 0.01) and systematic LNE (p = 0.011) were associated with higher OS.

CONCLUSION

Age seems to be the strongest independent factor leading to guideline deviation. Comorbidities were associated with less aggressive treatment, but not with deviations from guidelines.

Post-Operative All-Cause Mortality in Elderly Patients Undergoing Abdominal Emergency Surgery: Role of Charlson Comorbidity Index

(1) Background: The Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score has been shown to predict 10-year all-cause mortality, but its validity is a matter of debate in surgical patients. We wanted to evaluate CCI on predicting all-cause mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery (EAS); (2) Methods: This retrospective single center study included all patients aged 65 years or older consecutively admitted from January 2017 to December 2019, who underwent EAS and were discharged alive. CCI was calculated by using of the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Our outcome was all-cause death recorded during the 20.8 ± 8.8 month follow-up; (3) Results: We evaluated 197 patients aged 78.4 ± 7.2 years of whom 47 (23.8%) died. Mortality was higher in patients who underwent open abdominal surgery than in those treated with laparoscopic procedure (74% vs. 26%, p < 0.001), and in those who needed colon, small bowel, and gastric surgery. Mean CCI was 4.98 ± 2.2, and in subjects with CCI ≥ 4 survival was lower. Cox regression analysis showed that CCI (HR 1.132, 95% CI 1.009–1.270, p = 0.035), and open surgery (HR 10.298, 95%CI 1.409–75.285, p = 0.022) were associated with all-cause death independently from age and sex; (4) Conclusions: Calculation of CCI, could help surgeons in the preoperative stratification of risk of death after discharge in subjects aged ≥65 years who need EAS. CCI ≥ 4, increases the risk of all-causes mortality independently from age.

Differences in Comorbidities Between Women and Men Treated with Elective Repair for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is performed to prevent rupture. For reasons as yet unknown, the 30-day mortality risk after elective AAA repair is higher in women than in men. We hypothesised that this higher risk might be related to differences in comorbidity.

METHODS

Systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42019133314) according to PRISMA guidelines. A search in the EMBASE/MEDLINE/CENTRAL databases identified 1870 studies that included patients who underwent elective AAA repair (final search February 17^th, 2021). Ultimately, 28 studies were included and all reported comorbidities were categorised into 17 comorbidity groups. Additionally, 15 groups of clearly defined comorbidities were used for sensitivity analysis. For both groups, meta-analyses of each comorbidity were performed to estimate the difference in pooled prevalence between women and men with a random effects model.

RESULTS

When analysing data of all reported comorbidities (17 groups), smoking [risk difference (RD) 11%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4-18], diabetes (RD 3%, 95% CI 2-4), ischaemic heart disease (RD 12%, 95% CI 8-16), arrhythmia (RD 3%, 95% CI 0.4-5), liver disease (RD 0.1%, 95% CI 0.01-0.2), and cancer (RD 3%, 95% CI 2-4)) were less prevalent in women, whereas, hypertension (RD 4%, 95% CI 3-6) and pulmonary disease (RD 4%, 95% CI 3-5) were more prevalent in women. At the time of surgery women were significantly older than men (74.9 years versus 72.4; mean difference 2.4 years (95% CI 2.1-2.7)). In the sensitivity analysis of 15 comorbidity groups, the same comorbidities remained significantly different between women and men, except smoking and arrhythmia. Women had a higher mortality risk than men (RD 1%, 95% CI 1-2).

CONCLUSIONS

Although women undergoing elective AAA repair have fewer baseline comorbidities than men, their 30-day mortality risk is higher. In-depth studies on the cause of death in women after elective AAA repair are needed to explain this discrepancy in mortality.

More than two-dozen prescription drug-based risk scores are available for risk adjustment: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

While several prescription drug-based risk indices have been developed, their design, performance, and application has not previously been synthesized.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We searched Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL and Embase from inception through March 3, 2020 and included studies that developed or updated a prescription drug-based risk index. Two reviewers independently performed screening and extracted information on data source, study population, cohort sizes, outcomes, study methodology and performance. Predictive performance was evaluated using C statistics for binary outcomes and R² for continuous outcomes. The PROSPERO ID for this review is CRD42020165498.

RESULTS

Of 19,112 articles that were retrieved, 124 were full-text screened and 25 were included, each of which represented a de novo or updated drug-based index. The indices were customized to varied age groups and clinical populations and most commonly evaluated outcomes including mortality (36%), hospitalization (24%) and healthcare costs (24%). C statistics ranged from 0.62 to 0.92 for mortality and 0.59 to 0.72 for hospitalization, while adjusted R² for healthcare costs ranged from 0.06 to 0.62. Seven of the 25 risk indices included used global drug classification algorithms.

CONCLUSIONS

More than two-dozen prescription drug-based risk indices have been developed and they differ significantly in design, performance and application.

Scores for preoperative risk evaluation of postoperative mortality

Preoperative risk evaluation scores are used prior to surgery to predict perioperative risks. They are also a useful tool to help clinicians communicate the risk-benefit balance of the procedure to patients. This review identifies and assesses the existing preoperative risk evaluation scores (also called prediction scores) of postoperative mortality in all types of surgery (emergency or scheduled) in an adult population. We systematically identified studies using the MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE and Cochrane databases and published studies reporting the development and validation of preoperative predictive scores of postoperative mortality. We assessed usability, the level of evidence of the studies performed for external validation, and the predictive accuracy of the scores identified. We found 26 scores described within 60 different reports. The most suitable scores with the highest validity identified for anaesthesia practice were the Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality (POSPOM), the Universal ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator (ACS-NSQUIP), the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) classification system. While other scores identified in this review could also be endorsed, their level of validity and generalizability to the general surgical population should be carefully considered.

Predicting hospital outcomes with the reported edmonton frail scale-Thai version in orthopaedic older patients

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To test the ability of the Reported Edmonton Frail Scale-Thai version to predict hospital outcomes compared with standard preoperative assessment measures (American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification and the Elixhauser Comorbidity Measure) in older Thai orthopaedic patients.

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a common geriatric condition. No previous studies have assessed frailty among orthopaedic patients in Thailand. Effective frailty screening could enhance quality of care.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study in a university hospital.

METHODS

Two hundred hospitalised patients, aged 60 years or older and scheduled for orthopaedic surgery, participated in the study. Frailty was evaluated using the Reported Edmonton Frail Scale-Thai version. Multiple Firth logistic regression was used to model the effect of frailty on postoperative complications, postoperative delirium and discharge disposition. Length of stay was examined using Poisson regression. Comparing predictability of the instruments, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and mean squared errors were evaluated. The STROBE guideline was used.

RESULTS

Participants' mean age was 72 years; mostly were female, frail and underwent knee, spine and/or hip surgery. Poor health outcomes including postoperative complications, postoperative delirium, and not being discharged to the home were commonly identified. The length of stay varied from three days to more than ten weeks. Frailty was significantly associated with postoperative complications, postoperative delirium and prolonged length of stay. The Reported Edmonton Frail Scale-Thai version revealed good performance for predicting postoperative complications and postoperative delirium and was improved by combining with standard assessments.

CONCLUSION

The Reported Edmonton Frail Scale-Thai version, alone or combined with standard assessment, was useful for predicting adverse outcomes in older adults undergoing orthopaedic surgery.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

These findings indicate that nurse professionals should apply culturally sensitive frailty screening to proactively identify patients' risk of frailty, improve care quality and prevent adverse outcomes.

Decline of nutritional status in the first week of hospitalisation predicts longer length of stay and hospital readmission during 6-month follow-up

Nutritional status (NS) monitoring is an essential step of the nutrition care process. To assess changes in NS throughout hospitalisation and its ability to predict clinical outcomes, a prospective cohort study with patients over 18 years of age was conducted. The Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) was performed within 48 h of admission and 7 d later. For each patient, decline in NS was assessed by two different methods: changes in SGA category and severe weight loss alone (≥2 % during the first week of hospitalisation). Patients were followed up until discharge to assess length of hospital stay (LOS) and in-hospital mortality and contacted 6 months post-discharge to assess hospital readmission and death. Out of the 601 patients assessed at admission, 299 remained hospitalised for at least 7 d; of those, 16·1 % had a decline in SGA category and 22·8 % had severe weight loss alone. In multivariable analysis, decline in SGA category was associated with 2-fold (95 % CI 1·06, 4·21) increased odds of prolonged LOS and 3·6 (95 % CI 1·05, 12·26) increased odds of hospital readmission at 6 months. Severe weight loss alone was associated with 2·5-increased odds (95 % CI 1·40, 4·64) of prolonged LOS. In conclusion, deterioration of NS was more often identified by severe weight loss than by decline in SGA category. While both methods were associated with prolonged LOS, only changes in the SGA predicted hospital readmission. These findings reinforce the importance of nutritional monitoring and provide guidance for further research to prevent short-term NS deterioration from being left undetected.

Medicare Accountable Care Organizations Reduce Spending on Surgery

BACKGROUND

Surgical care among older adults is costly. While Medicare accountable care organizations (ACOs) are designed around primary care, there are reasons to believe that participation may also affect spending on surgery. This study examines the impact that Medicare ACO alignment has on spending for inpatient and outpatient surgical care.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using national Medicare claims (2008 through 2015). Among a 20% random sample of beneficiaries, we identified adults 65 years of age and older enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare, distinguishing between those aligned and unaligned with a Medicare ACO. We then measured payments for surgical services made on their behalf. Finally, we fit multivariable regression models to evaluate the association between ACO alignment and spending for inpatient and outpatient surgical care.

RESULTS

We identified 37,249,845 beneficiary-year observations, of which 2,950,188 (7.9%) were aligned with a Medicare ACO. After adjustment for patient factors, ACO alignment was associated with $181 [95% confidence interval (CI), -$243 to -$118; P <0.001] lower spending per beneficiary-year. ACO alignment was associated with 2.9% fewer inpatient surgical episodes per year [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 0.97; 95% CI, 0.96 to 0.98; P <0.001] but 2.3% more outpatient episodes per year (IRR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.03; P <0.001). Among inpatient surgical episodes, average payments were $956 lower for ACO aligned beneficiaries (95%CI -$1218 to -$694, P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

ACO alignment was associated with savings on surgical care. These savings resulted from increased outpatient surgery and reduced use of inpatient surgery as well as reduced spending per inpatient surgical episode. Greater focus on surgical care may improve the ability of ACOs to control healthcare spending.

The Comorbidity-Polypharmacy Score is an Objective and Practical Predictor of Outcomes and Mortality after Vascular Surgery

BACKGROUND

The comorbidity-polypharmacy score (CPPS) was developed to quantify the severity of comorbidities of patients with geriatric trauma. CPPS is the sum of the number of medications and comorbidities, and is thus objective, user-friendly, and potentially adaptable to many clinical situations. We sought to understand if CPPS associates with outcomes and mortality after common vascular surgery procedures.

METHODS

This is a retrospective single-center study. A total of 466 patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy, infrainguinal bypass, percutaneous lower extremity revascularization, or endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair at a single medical center were included. CPPS were classified as mild, moderate, severe, and morbid based on scores of 0-7, 8-15, 15-21, and ≥21, respectively. End points were reinterventions, 30-day readmission, and mortality. We used chi-squared tests to analyze differences in categorical variables; Kruskal-Wallis tests to analyze differences in continuous variables; Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazard modeling to examine survival data; and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analyses to assess sensitivity and specificity.

RESULTS

The mean preoperative CPPS was 14.1 ± 6.1. Higher CPPS were associated with longer hospital and postoperative length of stay (P < 0.001). Severe and morbid CPPS categories had higher rates of ICU admission, reintervention, and 30-day readmission which did not reach statistical significance after correction for multiple comparisons. CPPS was independently associated with 1- and 5-year mortality in a multivariable Cox model (hazard ratio = 2.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.3). ROC analysis revealed C-statistics of 0.81 and 0.72 for 1-year and 5-year all-cause mortality, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

CPPS is a simple and pragmatic clinical tool for quantifying risk of postoperative outcomes and mortality after common vascular surgery procedures. Further investigation is needed to validate the use of CPPS in enhancing existing predictors of patient outcomes and in serving as an adjunctive tool for determining resource allocation and discharge planning in patients who underwent vascular surgery.

Emergency Department Utilization After Elective Hip Arthroscopy

PURPOSE

(1) To identify the most common reasons for presentation to the emergency department (ED) after hip arthroscopy and (2) to determine preoperative risk factors for these ED visits.

METHODS

Patients undergoing elective hip arthroscopy between the start of 2014 and the third quarter of 2015 were retrospectively evaluated using discharge records from New York and Florida. The primary outcome was all-cause 7-, 30-, and 90-day ED utilization. Reasons for presentation to the ED were recorded and manually stratified. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of ED utilization.

RESULTS

The overall rate of postoperative ED visits after hip arthroscopy was 1.8% at 7 days, 3.5% at 30 days, and 6.6% at 90 days. Postoperative pain was the most common reason for visiting the ED at all time points (25.4%, 23.7%, and 20.3%, respectively), followed by gastrointestinal complaints (19.5%, 15.0%, and 15.3%, respectively) and neurologic complaints (8.7%, 9.8%, and 10.5%, respectively). Female sex (relative risk [RR], 1.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-2.54; P < .001), Medicare insurance (RR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.41-4.04; P < .001), and Medicaid insurance (RR, 3.45; 95% CI, 2.37-5.04; P < .001) were identified as independent risk factors for ED utilization at 90 days postoperatively. Of all patients who presented to the ED, only 3.9% were admitted to the hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

ED visits after elective hip arthroscopy are uncommon. The most common reason for a visit is postoperative pain, followed by gastrointestinal and neurologic complaints. After accounting for confounding, we found that female sex, Medicare and Medicaid insurance status, and hypertension were risk factors for all-cause ED visits at up to 90 days postoperatively. Only 4% of patients who present to the ED require inpatient hospital admission.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level IV, retrospective cohort study.

Episode Payments for Transcatheter and Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement

BACKGROUND

Aortic stenosis is the most common valvular heart disease in the United States. Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is increasingly being adopted as an alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). In an era of value-based payment reform, our objective was to better understand the economic impact of the use of TAVR and SAVR in the United States.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries who underwent TAVR or SAVR between 2012 and 2015. Using claims from a 20% sample of national fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, we calculated episode payments for patients who underwent aortic valve replacement from 90 days before aortic valve replacement through 90 days after hospital discharge. Among 18 804 eligible patients, 6455 underwent TAVR (34.3%), and 12 349 underwent SAVR (65.7%). After adjustment for patient characteristics, episode payments for TAVR were ≈7% lower than for SAVR (TAVR, $55 545 [95% CI, $54 643-56 446] versus $59 467 [95% CI, $58 723-60 211]; P<0.001). Patients with TAVR had higher preprocedural payments, but lower payments during and after the index hospitalization for the procedure. Episode payments increased with increasing comorbidity score for patients undergoing TAVR or SAVR (rate ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.15-1.17]; P<0.001); however, this association was stronger for SAVR (rate ratio, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.17-1.19]) than for TAVR (rate ratio, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.11-1.12]; P<0.001 for interaction). Thus, differences in episode payments between TAVR and SAVR were greatest for the sickest patients but much less in healthier patients.

CONCLUSIONS

TAVR is associated with lower episode payments than SAVR. However, episode payments for TAVR are less influenced by patient comorbidity. Therefore, as TAVR is increasingly used in patients with better baseline health status, the economic advantages of TAVR relative to SAVR may diminish.

Can We Improve Prediction of Adverse Surgical Outcomes? Development of a Surgical Complexity Score Using a Novel Machine Learning Technique

BACKGROUND

An optimal method to quantify surgical complexity using patient comorbidities derived from administrative billing data is lacking. We sought to develop a novel, easy-to-use surgical Complexity Score to accurately predict adverse outcomes among patients undergoing elective surgery.

STUDY DESIGN

A novel surgical Complexity Score was developed using 100% Medicare Inpatient and Outpatient Standard Analytic Files (SAFs) from years 2012 to 2016 (n = 1,049,160). Comorbid conditions were entered into a machine learning algorithm to assign weights to maximize the correlation with multiple postoperative outcomes including morbidity, readmission, mortality, and postoperative super-use. Predictive ability was compared against 3 of the most commonly used risk adjustment indices: the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI), and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service's Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC).

RESULTS

Patients underwent colectomy (12.6%), abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (4.4%), coronary artery bypass grafting (13.0%), total hip replacement (22.0%), total knee replacement (43.0%), or lung resection (5.0%). The Complexity Score had a good to very good predictive ability for all adverse outcomes. The Complexity Score had the highest accuracy in predicting perioperative morbidity (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.868, 95% CI 0.866 to 0.869); this performed better than the CCI (AUC: 0.717, 95% CI 0.715 to 0.719), ECI (AUC: 0.799, 95% CI 0.797 to 0.800), and similar to the CMS-HCC (AUC: 0.862, 95% CI 0.861 to 0.863). Similarly, the Complexity Score outperformed each of the 3 other comorbidity indices in predicting 90-day readmission (AUC: 0.707, 95% CI 0.705 to 0.709), 30-day readmission (AUC: 0.717, 95% CI 0.715 to 0.720), and postoperative super-use (AUC: 0.817, 95% CI 0.814 to 0.820).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the most commonly used comorbidity and surgical risk scores, the novel surgical Complexity Score outperformed the CCI, ECI, and CMS-HCC in predicting postoperative morbidity, 30-day readmission, 90-day readmission, and postoperative super-use.

Comparison of Orthognathic Surgery Outcomes Between Patients With and Without Underlying High-Risk Conditions: A Multidisciplinary Team-Based Approach and Practical Guidelines

Orthognathic surgery (OGS) has been successfully adopted for managing a wide spectrum of skeletofacial deformities, but patients with underlying conditions have not been treated using OGS because of the relatively high risk of surgical anesthetic procedure-related complications. This study compared the OGS outcomes of patients with and without underlying high-risk conditions, which were managed using a comprehensive, multidisciplinary team-based OGS approach with condition-specific practical perioperative care guidelines. Data of surgical anesthetic outcomes (intraoperative blood loss, operative duration, need for prolonged intubation, reintubation, admission to an intensive care unit, length of hospital stay, and complications), facial esthetic outcomes (professional panel assessment), and patient-reported outcomes (FACE-Q social function, psychological well-being, and satisfaction with decision scales) of consecutive patients with underlying high-risk conditions (n = 30) treated between 2004 and 2017 were retrospectively collected. Patients without these underlying conditions (n = 30) treated during the same period were randomly selected for comparison. FACE-Q reports of 50 ethnicity-, sex-, and age-matched healthy individuals were obtained. The OGS-treated patients with and without underlying high-risk conditions differed significantly in their American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) classification (p < 0.05), Charlson comorbidity scores, and Elixhauser comorbidity scores. The two groups presented similar outcomes (all p > 0.05) for all assessed outcome parameters, except for intraoperative blood loss (p < 0.001; 974.3 ± 592.7 mL vs. 657.6 ± 355.0 mL). Comparisons with healthy individuals revealed no significant differences (p > 0.05). The patients with underlying high-risk conditions treated using a multidisciplinary team-based OGS approach and the patients without the conditions had similar OGS-related outcomes.

Comorbidity and thirty-day hospital readmission odds in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a comparison of the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices

Background

Readmissions following exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are prevalent and costly. Multimorbidity is common in COPD and understanding how comorbidity influences readmission risk will enable health systems to manage these complex patients.

Objectives

We compared two commonly used comorbidity indices published by Charlson and Elixhauser regarding their ability to estimate readmission odds in COPD and determine which one provided a superior model.

Methods

We analyzed discharge records for COPD from the Nationwide Readmissions Database spanning 2010 to 2016. Inclusion and readmission criteria from the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program were utilized. Elixhauser and Charlson Comorbidity Index scores were calculated from published methodology. A mixed-effects logistic regression model with random intercepts for hospital clusters was fit for each comorbidity index, including year, patient-level, and hospital-level covariates to estimate odds of thirty-day readmissions. Sensitivity analyses included testing age inclusion thresholds and model stability across time.

Results

In analysis of 1.6 million COPD discharges, readmission odds increased by 9% for each half standard deviation increase of Charlson Index scores and 13% per half standard deviation increase of Elixhauser Index scores. Model fit was slightly better for the Elixhauser Index using information criteria. Model parameters were stable in our sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Both comorbidity indices provide meaningful information in prediction readmission odds in COPD with slightly better model fit in the Elixhauser model. Incorporation of comorbidity information into risk prediction models and hospital discharge planning may be informative to mitigate readmissions.

Development of comorbidity score for patients undergoing major surgery

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a claims-based comorbidity score for patients undergoing major surgery, and compare its performance with established comorbidity scores.

DATA SOURCE

Five percent Medicare data from 2007 to 2014.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of patients aged ≥65 years undergoing six major operations (N = 99 250).

DATA COLLECTION

One-year mortality was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, 30-day readmission, and length of stay. The comorbidity score was developed in the derivation cohort (70 percent sample) using logistic regression model. The comorbidity score was calibrated and validated in the validation cohort (30 percent sample), and compared against the Charlson, Elixhauser, and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC) comorbidity scores using c-statistic, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In the validation cohort, the surgery-specific comorbidity score was well calibrated and performed better than the Charlson, Elixhauser, and CMS-HCC comorbidity scores for all outcomes; the performance was comparable to the CMS-HCC for 30-day readmission. For example, the surgery-specific comorbidity score (c-statistic = 0.792; 95% CI, 0.785-0.799) had greater discrimination than the Charlson (c-statistic = 0.747; 95% CI, 0.739-0.755), Elixhauser (c-statistic = 0.747; 95% CI, 0.735-0.755), or CMS-HCC (c-statistic = 0.755; 95% CI, 0.747-0.763) scores in predicting 1-year mortality. The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were greater for surgery-specific comorbidity score compared to the Charlson, Elixhauser, and CMS-HCC scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to commonly used comorbidity measures, a surgery-specific comorbidity score better predicted outcomes in the surgical population.

Prevalence and Cost of Care Cascades After Low-Value Preoperative Electrocardiogram for Cataract Surgery in Fee-for-Service Medicare Beneficiaries

IMPORTANCE

Low-value care is prevalent in the United States, yet little is known about the downstream health care use triggered by low-value services. Measurement of such care cascades is essential to understanding the full consequences of low-value care.

OBJECTIVE

To describe cascades (tests, treatments, visits, hospitalizations, and new diagnoses) after a common low-value service, preoperative electrocardiogram (EKG) for patients undergoing cataract surgery.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Observational cohort study using fee-for-service Medicare claims data from beneficiaries aged 66 years or older without known heart disease who were continuously enrolled between April 1, 2013, and September 30, 2015, and underwent cataract surgery between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015. Data were analyzed from March 12, 2018, to April 9, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Receipt of a preoperative EKG. The comparison group included patients who underwent cataract surgery but did not receive a preoperative EKG.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Cascade event rates and associated spending in the 90 days after preoperative EKG, or in a matched timeframe for the comparison group. Secondary outcomes were patient, physician, and area-level characteristics associated with experiencing a potential cascade.

RESULTS

Among 110 183 cataract surgery recipients, 12 408 (11.3%) received a preoperative EKG (65.6% of them were female); of those, 1978 (15.9%) had at least 1 potential cascade event. The comparison group included 97 775 participants (63.1% female). Those who received a preoperative EKG experienced between 5.11 (95% CI, 3.96-6.25) and 10.92 (95% CI, 9.76-12.08) additional events per 100 beneficiaries relative to the comparison group. This included between 2.18 (95% CI, 1.34-3.02) and 7.98 (95% CI, 7.12-8.84) tests, 0.33 (95% CI, 0.19-0.46) treatments, 1.40 (95% CI, 1.18-1.62) new patient cardiology visits, and 1.21 (95% CI, 0.62-1.79) new cardiac diagnoses. Spending for the additional services was up to $565 per Medicare beneficiary (95% CI, $342-$775), or an estimated $35 025 923 annually across all Medicare beneficiaries in addition to the $3 275 712 paid for the preoperative EKGs. Among preoperative EKG recipients, those who were older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for patients aged 75 to 84 years vs 66 to 74 years old, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.28-1.57), had more chronic conditions (aOR for each additional Elixhauser condition, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.14-1.22), lived in more cardiologist-dense areas (aOR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.09), or had their preoperative EKG performed by a cardiac specialist rather than a primary care physician (aOR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.43) were more likely to experience a potential cascade.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Care cascades after preoperative EKG for cataract surgery are infrequent but costly. Policy and practice interventions to reduce low-value services and the cascades that follow could yield substantial savings.

Reliability of comorbidity scores derived from administrative data in the tertiary hospital intensive care setting: a cross-sectional study

Background

Hospital reporting systems commonly use administrative data to calculate comorbidity scores in order to provide risk-adjustment to outcome indicators.

Objective

We aimed to elucidate the level of agreement between administrative coding data and medical chart review for extraction of comorbidities included in the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Elixhauser Index (EI) for patients admitted to the intensive care unit of a university-affiliated hospital.

Method

We conducted an examination of a random cross-section of 100 patient episodes over 12 months (July 2012 to June 2013) for the 19 CCI and 30 EI comorbidities reported in administrative data and the manual medical record system. CCI and EI comorbidities were collected in order to ascertain the difference in mean indices, detect any systematic bias, and ascertain inter-rater agreement.

Results

We found reasonable inter-rater agreement (kappa (κ) coefficient ≥0.4) for cardiorespiratory and oncological comorbidities, but little agreement (κ<0.4) for other comorbidities. Comorbidity indices derived from administrative data were significantly lower than from chart review: −0.81 (95% CI − 1.29 to − 0.33; p=0.001) for CCI, and −2.57 (95% CI −4.46 to −0.68; p=0.008) for EI.

Conclusion

While cardiorespiratory and oncological comorbidities were reliably coded in administrative data, most other comorbidities were under-reported and an unreliable source for estimation of CCI or EI in intensive care patients. Further examination of a large multicentre population is required to confirm our findings.

ICD-10 Coding Will Challenge Researchers: Caution and Collaboration may Reduce Measurement Error and Improve Comparability Over Time

BACKGROUND

The October 1, 2015 US health care diagnosis and procedure codes update, from the 9th to 10th version of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), abruptly changed the structure, number, and diversity of codes in health care administrative data. Translation from ICD-9 to ICD-10 risks introducing artificial changes in claims-based measures of health and health services.

OBJECTIVE

Using published ICD-9 and ICD-10 definitions and translation software, we explored discontinuity in common diagnoses to quantify measurement changes introduced by the upgrade.

DESIGN

Using 100% Medicare inpatient data, 2012-2015, we calculated the quarterly frequency of condition-specific diagnoses on hospital discharge records. Years 2012-2014 provided baseline frequencies and historic, annual fourth-quarter changes. We compared these to fourth quarter of 2015, the first months after ICD-10 adoption, using Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse (CCW) ICD-9 and ICD-10 definitions and other commonly used definitions sets.

RESULTS

Discontinuities of recorded CCW-defined conditions in fourth quarter of 2015 varied widely. For example, compared with diagnosis appearance in 2014 fourth quarter, in 2015 we saw a sudden 3.2% increase in chronic lung disease and a 1.8% decrease in depression; frequency of acute myocardial infarction was stable. Using published software to translate Charlson-Deyo and Elixhauser conditions yielded discontinuities ranging from -8.9% to +10.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

ICD-9 to ICD-10 translations do not always align, producing discontinuity over time. This may compromise ICD-based measurements and risk-adjustment. To address the challenge, we propose a public resource for researchers to share discovered discontinuities introduced by ICD-10 adoption and the solutions they develop.

A Weighted Index of Elixhauser Comorbidities for Predicting 90-day Readmission After Total Joint Arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

Evolving reimbursement models increasingly compel hospitals to assume costs for 90-day readmission after total joint arthroplasty. Although risk assessment tools exist, none currently reach the predictive performance required to accurately identify high-risk patients and modulate perioperative care accordingly. Although unlikely to perform adequately alone, the Elixhauser index is a set of 31 variables that may lend value in a broader model predicting 90-day readmission.

METHODS

Elixhauser comorbidities were examined in 10,022 primary unilateral total joint replacements, of which 4535 were hip replacements and 5487 were knee replacements, all performed between June 2013 and January 2018 at a single tertiary referral center. Data were extracted from electronic medical records using structured query language. After randomizing to derivation (80%) and validation (20%) subgroups, predictive models for 90-day readmission were generated and transformed into a system of weights based on each parameter's relative performance.

RESULTS

We observed 497 90-day readmissions (5.0%) during the study period, which demonstrated independent associations with 14 of the 31 Elixhauser comorbidity groups. A score created from the sum of each patient's weighted comorbidities did not lose substantial predictive discrimination (area under the curve: 0.653) compared to a comprehensive multivariable model containing all 31 unweighted Elixhauser parameters (area under the curve: 0.665). Readmission risk ranged from 3% for patients with a score of 0 to 27% for those with a score of 8 or higher.

CONCLUSIONS

The Elixhauser comorbidity score already meets or exceeds the predictive discrimination of available risk calculators. Although insufficient by itself, this score represents a valuable summary of patient comorbidities and merits inclusion in any broader model predicting 90-day readmission risk after total joint arthroplasty.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.