The Relationship Between Unemployment and Health Insurance Coverage: Before and After the Affordable Care Act's Coverage Expansions

Joint effects of Medicaid eligibility and fees on recession-linked declines in healthcare access and health status

Whether Medicaid can function as a safety net to offset health risks created by health insurance coverage losses due to job loss is conditional on (1) the eligibility guidelines shaping the pathway for households to access the program for temporary relief, and (2) Medicaid reimbursement policies affecting the value of the program for both the newly and previously enrolled. We find states with more expansive eligibility guidelines lowered the healthcare access and health risk of coverage loss associated with rising unemployment during the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Rises in cost-related barriers to care associated with unemployment were smallest in states with expansive eligibility guidelines and higher Medicaid-to-Medicare fee ratios. Similarly, states whose Medicaid programs had expansive eligibility guidelines and higher fees saw the smallest recession-linked declines in self-reported good health. Medicaid can work to stabilize access to health care during periods of joblessness. Our findings yield important insights into the alignment of at least two Medicaid policies (i.e., eligibility and payment) shaping Medicaid's viability as a safety net.

Dynamics of Macroeconomy, Medicaid, and State Fiscal Conditions: A Role of Medicaid Expansion

Background

One of the main concerns of state governments about Medicaid expansion is the potential increase in state fiscal burden following the rise in enrollments. In previous literature, limited attention has been paid to the effect of macroeconomic changes, which are closely linked to Medicaid enrollments, in understanding the impact of Medicaid expansion on a state. To narrow the gap, this study establishes a synthetic model to represent the transmission channel from an unemployment shock to the Medicaid program and state expenditures.

Methods

The panel vector autoregression (VAR) model is adopted for the empirical analysis using annual data from 2010 to 2019 for 50 US states and D.C. The unit root and Granger causality tests are conducted to check the model's appropriateness. The estimated results are analyzed by using impulse response functions.

Results

A sudden increase in the unemployment rate will raise the number of Medicaid enrollees and the state Medicaid expenditure, but the impact on the overall state budget is not clear. States that adopt Medicaid expansion will encounter surges in enrollment and increasing Medicaid expenditure during the economic recession, while the non-expansion states will only have moderate enrollment increases. However, an increased budgetary burden per new enrollees will not be significant at its level.

Conclusion

Medicaid expansion will allow more people to benefit from the public health insurance program during an economic recession while the impact on states' fiscal burden will be moderate.

A conceptual model of health insurance stability in the United States health care system

In the U.S. health care system, people under age 65 are at risk of losing and regaining health insurance coverage over their lifetimes, which has important consequences for their physical and mental health. Despite the importance of insurance stability, we have an incomplete understanding about the complex factors influencing whether people lose and regain coverage. To advance our understanding of the dynamics of health insurance coverage and guide future research, our purpose is to present a new conceptual model of health insurance stability, where instability is defined as a person’s loss or change of coverage, which can occur more than once in a lifetime. Drawing from theory and evidence in the literature, we posit that personal and plan characteristics, the health system, and the environmental context – economic, social/cultural, political/judicial, and geographic – drive health insurance stability over the life course and are understudied. Studies are needed to identify the populations most at risk of experiencing insurance instability and vulnerability in health outcomes that results from such insecurity, which may suggest reforms and health policies at the individual, health system, or environment levels to reduce those risks.

COVID-19-related Medicaid enrollment in Medicaid expansion and non-expansion states

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

To explore whether expanded Medicaid helps mitigate the relationship between unemployment due to COVID and being uninsured. Unanticipated unemployment spells are generally associated with disruptions in health insurance coverage, which could also be the case for job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Expanded access to Medicaid may insulate some households from long uninsurance gaps due to job loss.

DATA SOURCE

Phase 1 of the Census Bureau's Experimental Household Pulse Survey covering April 23, 2020-July 21, 2020.

STUDY DESIGN

We compare differences in health insurance coverage source and status linked to recent lob losses attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic in states that expanded Medicaid against states that did not expand Medicaid.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

Our analytical dataset was limited to 733,181 non-elderly adults aged 20-64.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Twenty-six percent of our study sample experienced an income loss between March 13, 2020, and the time leading up to the survey-16% experienced job losses (e.g., layoff, furlough) due to the COVID-19 crisis, and 11% had other reasons they were not working. COVID-linked job losses were associated with a 20 (p < 0.01) percentage-point (PPT) lower likelihood of having employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI). Relative to persons in states that did not expand Medicaid, persons in Medicaid expansion states experiencing COVID-linked job losses were 9 PPT (p < 0.01) more likely to report having Medicaid and 7 PPT (p < 0.01) less likely to be uninsured. The largest increases in Medicaid enrollment were among people who, based on their 2019 incomes, would not have qualified for Medicaid previously.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that expanded Medicaid eligibility may allow households to stabilize health care needs and they should become detached from private health coverage due to job loss during the pandemic. Households negatively affected by the pandemic are using Medicaid to insure themselves against the potential health risks they would incur while being unemployed.

Comparison of Unemployment-Related Health Insurance Coverage Changes in Medicaid Expansion vs Nonexpansion States During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance

The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with increased unemployment rates and long periods when individuals were without health insurance. Little is known about how Medicaid expansion facilitates Medicaid enrollment as a buffer to coverage loss owing to unemployment.

Objective

To compare changes in health insurance coverage status associated with pandemic-related unemployment among previously employed adults in states that have vs have not expanded Medicaid eligibility.

Design Setting and Participants

This cohort study included US adults aged 27 to 64 years who were employed at baseline in the 2020 to 2021 Current Population Survey's Annual Social and Economic Supplement, which included calendar years 2019 to 2020 (32 462 person-years). Data analyses were conducted between November 2021 and April 2022.

Exposures

Job loss (ie, new unemployment) experienced during 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcomes were coverage status (ie, uninsured status) and source of coverage (ie, employer sponsored, marketplace, and Medicaid). Using 2-way person-by-year fixed-effects regression models, changes in coverage status associated with unemployment in states that expanded Medicaid were compared with states that did not expand Medicaid. Additional analyses were performed based on prepandemic coverage status.

Results

The cohort included 16 231 adults (mean age, 46.8 [95% CI, 46.6-47.0] years; 51.6% women). New unemployment was associated with an increase of 2.9 (95% CI, 1.1-4.6) percentage points (P = .002) in the proportion of uninsured adults in Medicaid expansion states and an increase of 10.7 (95% CI, 2.4-18.9) percentage points (P = .01) in nonexpansion states. Workers were 5.4 (95% CI, 1.9-8.9) percentage points (P = .003) more likely to enroll in Medicaid after a job loss if they lived in a Medicaid expansion state compared with workers experiencing job loss in nonexpansion states.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of US adults, unemployment-related Medicaid enrollment was more frequent in Medicaid expansion states during the COVID-19 pandemic. Medicaid expansion led to a smaller increase in uninsured adults because those who lost private insurance coverage (eg, employer sponsored) appeared more able to transition to Medicaid after job loss.