Who's at Risk? A Prognostic Model for Severity Prediction in Pediatric Acute Pancreatitis

Computed Tomography Assessment of Severity of Acute Pancreatitis in Bangladeshi Children

Purpose

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is common among children in Bangladesh. Its management depends mainly on risk stratification. This study aimed to assess the severity of pediatric AP using computed tomography (CT).

Methods

This cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted in pediatric patients with AP at the Department of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition, BSMMU, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Results

Altogether, 25 patients with AP were included, of whom 18 (mean age, 10.27±4.0 years) were diagnosed with mild AP, and 7 (mean age, 10.54±4.0 years) with severe AP. Abdominal pain was present in all the patients, and vomiting was present in 88% of the patients. Etiology was not determined. No significant differences in serum lipase, serum amylase, BUN, and CRP levels were observed between the mild and severe AP groups. Total and platelet counts as well as hemoglobin, hematocrit, serum creatinine, random blood sugar, and serum alanine aminotransferase levels (p>0.05) were significantly higher in the mild AP group than in the severe AP group (p=0.001). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of CT severity index (CTSI) were 71.4%, 72.2%, 50%, and 86.7%, respectively. In addition, significant differences in pancreatic appearance and necrosis were observed between the two groups on CT.

Conclusion

CT can be used to assess the severity of AP. In the present study, the CTSI effectively assessed the severity of AP in pediatric patients.

Development and validation of a deep learning-based model to predict response and survival of T790M mutant non-small cell lung cancer patients in early clinical phase trials using electronic medical record and pharmacokinetic data

Background

Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) T790M mutation is the standard predictive biomarker for third-generation epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR-TKI) treatment. While not all T790M-positive patients respond to third-generation EGFR-TKIs and have a good prognosis, it necessitates novel tools to supplement EGFR genotype detection for predicting efficacy and stratifying EGFR-mutant patients with various prognoses. Mixture-of-experts (MoE) is designed to disassemble a large model into many small models. Meanwhile, it is also a model ensembling method that can better capture multiple patterns of intrinsic subgroups of enrolled patients. Therefore, the combination of MoE and Cox algorithm has the potential to predict efficacy and stratify survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with EGFR mutations.

Methods

We utilized the electronic medical record (EMR) and pharmacokinetic parameters of 326 T790M-mutated NSCLC patients, including 283 patients treated with Abivertinib in phase I (n=177, for training) and II (n=106, for validation) clinical trials and an additional validation cohort 2 comprising 43 patients treated with BPI-7711. Furthermore, 18 patients underwent whole-exome sequencing for biological interpretation of CoxMoE. We evaluated the predictive performance for therapeutic response using the area under the curve (AUC) and the Concordance index (C-index) for progression-free survival (PFS).

Results

CoxMoE exhibited AUCs of 0.73-0.83 for predicting efficacy defined by best overall response (BoR) and achieved C-index values of 0.64-0.65 for PFS prediction in training and validating cohorts. The PFS of 198 patients with a low risk [median, 6.0 (range, 1.0-23.3) months in the abivertinib treated cohort; median 16.5 (range, 1.4-27.4) months in BPI-7711 treated cohort] of being non-responder increased by 43% [hazard ratio (HR), 0.56; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.40-0.78; P=0.0013] and 50% (HR, 0; 95% CI, 0-0; P=0.01) compared to those at high-risk [median, 4.2 (range, 1.0-35) months in the abivertinib treated cohort; median, 11.0 (range, 1.4-25.1) months in BPI-7711 treated cohort]. Additionally, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), creatinine clearance (Ccr), monocyte, and steady-state plasma trough concentration utilited to construct model were found significantly associated with drug resistance and aggressive tumor pathways. A robust correlation was observed between APTT and Ccr with PFS (log-rank test; P<0.01) and treatment response (Wilcoxon test; P<0.05), respectively.

Conclusions

CoxMoE offers a valuable approach for patient selection by forecasting therapeutic response and PFS utilizing laboratory tests and pharmacokinetic parameters in the setting of early-phase clinical trials. Simultaneously, CoxMoE could predict the efficacy of third-generation EGFR-TKI non-invasively for T790M-positive NSCLC patients, thereby complementing existing EGFR genotype detection.

Acute pancreatitis in children: risk factors, management, and outcomes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Pediatric acute pancreatitis is an infrequent but potentially serious condition in children. Most have mild cases with spontaneous resolution, but up to one-third of patients can have moderate or severe disease or progress to recurrent or chronic pancreatitis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Significant advances have been made in the field of pediatric pancreatology with a recognition that pediatric acute pancreatitis can vary significantly from adult disease with different risk factors and outcomes. There is better understanding of appropriate management for pediatric pancreatitis as well as growing literature in complications of pancreatitis.

SUMMARY

The most common risk factors for pediatric acute pancreatitis include biliary disease, drug/toxin and idiopathic. Management involves adequate fluid resuscitation, early enteral nutrition and appropriate pain control. Systemic and local complications, including SIRS, necrosis and fluid collections, can occur in up to one-third of patients and care is largely supportive with a careful step-up approach to fluid collections and necrosis.

Construction and validation of machine learning models for sepsis prediction in patients with acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to construct predictive models for the risk of sepsis in patients with Acute pancreatitis (AP) using machine learning methods and compared optimal one with the logistic regression (LR) model and scoring systems.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, data were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) database between 2001 and 2012 and the MIMIC IV database between 2008 and 2019. Patients were randomly divided into training and test sets (8:2). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression plus 5-fold cross-validation were used to screen and confirm the predictive factors. Based on the selected predictive factors, 6 machine learning models were constructed, including support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbour (KNN), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), LR, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) and adaptive enhancement algorithm (AdaBoost). The models and scoring systems were evaluated and compared using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy, and the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 1, 672 patients were eligible for participation. In the training set, 261 AP patients (19.51%) were diagnosed with sepsis. The predictive factors for the risk of sepsis in AP patients included age, insurance, vasopressors, mechanical ventilation, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, SpO2, platelet, red blood cell distribution width (RDW), International Normalized Ratio (INR), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The AUC of the GBDT model for sepsis prediction in the AP patients in the testing set was 0.985. The GBDT model showed better performance in sepsis prediction than the LR, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, quick-SOFA (qSOFA), and simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II).

CONCLUSION

The present findings suggest that compared to the classical LR model and SOFA, qSOFA, SAPS II, SIRS, and BISAP scores, the machine learning model-GBDT model had a better performance in predicting sepsis in the AP patients, which is a useful tool for early identification of high-risk patients and timely clinical interventions.

The Asociación Mexicana de Gastroenterología consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of acute pancreatitis in children and adolescents

Acute pancreatitis (AP) and recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) are conditions, whose incidence is apparently on the rise. Despite the ever-increasing evidence regarding the management of AP in children and adults, therapeutic actions that could potentially affect having a poor prognosis in those patients, especially in the pediatric population, continue to be carried out. Therefore, the Asociación Mexicana de Gastroenterología convened a group of 24 expert pediatric gastroenterologists from different institutions and areas of Mexico, as well as 2 pediatric nutritionists and 2 specialists in pediatric surgery, to discuss different aspects of the epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of AP and RAP in the pediatric population. The aim of this document is to present the consensus results. Different AP topics were addressed by 6 working groups, each of which reviewed the information and formulated statements considered pertinent for each module, on themes involving recommendations and points of debate, concerning diagnostic or therapeutic approaches. All the statements were presented and discussed. They were then evaluated through a Delphi process, with electronic and anonymous voting, to determine the level of agreement on the statements. A total of 29 statements were formulated, all of which reached above 75% agreement in the first round of voting.

Analgesic Patterns and Opioid Administration in Children Hospitalized With Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Pain is the most common symptom of acute pancreatitis (AP), and opioids have been utilized as the cornerstone of treatment. Despite the adverse effects of opioids, data on effective analgesia in children with AP is lacking. We aimed to evaluate analgesia prescribing patterns in pediatric AP, identify factors associated with opioid administration, and test the associations between opioid administration and hospital length of stay (LOS).

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study of pediatric AP hospitalizations in a single institution from 2010 to 2020. Opioid administration was calculated for the first 48 hours of admission (morphine milligram equivalent; MME48). Data on multimodal analgesia [defined as the administration of acetaminophen and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs)] during hospitalization was captured.

RESULTS

The sample included 224 patients, mean age 12.0 years (standard deviation = 4.9) and 58.9% female. Median LOS was 4 days (interquartile range 2-9). Most patients (71.4%) were prescribed opioids, 77.7% acetaminophen, 40.2% NSAIDs, and 37.5% multimodal analgesia. Opioid administration decreased over the study period; in contrast, there was an increase in multimodal analgesia administration. Opioid administration did not differ by sex, age, biliary versus non-biliary etiology, or race/ethnicity. In a multivariate regression model, lower albumin values ( P < 0.01) and younger age ( P < 0.05) were significant predictors of increased LOS, while MME48 was not associated with increased LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

Opioids were commonly administered; only 37.5% of children were administered multimodal analgesia during their hospitalization for AP. Opioid administration was not associated with increased LOS. Prospective studies are needed to determine optimal pain management for pediatric AP.

Factors associated with hospital length of stay in children with acute pancreatitis

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is the most common cause of pancreatic disease in children. Previous studies have described factors related to days of hospital length of stay (LOS) in children. Our aim was to identify factors associated with LOS in AP.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted at the Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez in Mexico City, encompassing the time frame of January 1, 2017 and March 31, 2019. AP was confirmed by medical chart review, according to the INSPPIRE criteria at the time of hospital admission, in patients below 18 years of age. AP grade was classified, following the NASPGHAN guidelines. Demographic, clinical, biochemical, nutritional, and treatment data were collected. Prolonged hospital LOS was considered that which lasted 7 days or longer.

RESULTS

Fifty-one events (32 patients) were registered. Median LOS was 8 days (IQR 4-14 days). Antibiotic use was significantly associated with longer LOS (OR 31.71; 95% CI: 2.71-370.65; p = 0.006) and early feeding (EF) (within 72 h of admission) was associated with shorter LOS (OR 0.05; 95% CI: 0.001-0.63; p = 0.02). There was no association between LOS and the variables of age, recurrence, grade, etiology, comorbidities, complications, fluid resuscitation, parenteral nutrition, or biochemical characteristics upon admission.

CONCLUSION

Our study, like others, corroborated the fact that EF in the management of AP was associated with fewer days of hospital LOS.

Admission risk factors and predictors of moderate or severe pediatric acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Pediatric acute pancreatitis (PAP) has an increasing incidence and is now estimated to be almost as common as in adults. Up to 30% of patients with PAP will develop moderate or severe disease course (M/SPAP), characterized by organ failure, local or systemic complications. There is still no consensus regarding on-admission severity prediction in these patients. Our aim was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of available predictive score systems and parameters, and differences between on-admission parameters in mild and M/SPAP.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search on the 14th February, 2022 in MEDLINE, Embase and CENTRAL. We performed random-effects meta-analysis of on-admission differences between mild and M/SPAP in laboratory parameters, etiology, demographic factors, etc. calculating risk ratios (RR) or mean differences (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and created forest plots. For the meta-analysis of predictive score systems, we generated hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves using a bivariate model. Chi-squared tests were performed and I2 values calculated to assess statistical heterogeneity.

Results

We included 44 studies - mostly retrospective cohorts - in our review. Among predictive score systems examined by at least 5 studies, the modified Glasgow scale had the highest specificity (91.5% for values ≥3), and the Pediatric Acute Pancreatitis Severity score the highest sensitivity (63.1% for values ≥3). The performance of other proposed score systems and values were summarized. Traumatic (RR: 1.70 95% CI: 1.09-2.67) and drug-induced (RR: 1.33 95% CI: 0.98-1.87) etiologies were associated with a higher rate of M/SPAP, while anatomical (RR: 0.6195% CI: 0.38-0.96) and biliary (RR: 0.72 95% CI: 0.53-0.99) PAP tended to be less severe.

Discussion

Many predictive score systems were proposed to assess the possibility of M/SPAP course. The most commonly used ones exhibit good specificity, but subpar sensitivity. Our systematic review provides a rigorous overview of predictive options assessed thus far, that can serve as a basis for future improvement of scores via the addition of parameters with a better observed sensitivity: e.g., lipase exceeding 7-times the upper threshold, hemoglobin, etc. The addition of etiological factors is another possibility, as they can herald a more severe disease course.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=307271, PROSPERO, identifier: CRD42022307271.

Development and validation of a prediction model for moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis in pregnancy

BACKGROUND

The severity of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) is correlated with higher risks of maternal and fetal death.

AIM

To develop a nomogram that could predict moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (MSIP).

METHODS

Patients with APIP admitted to West China Hospital between January 2012 and December 2018 were included in this study. They were divided into mild acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (MAIP) and MSIP. Characteristic parameters and laboratory results were collected. The training set and test set were randomly divided at a ratio of 7:3. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to select potential prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed by logistic regression. A random forest model was used to validate the stability of the prediction factors. Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model’s predictive performance.

RESULTS

A total of 190 patients were included in this study. A total of 134 patients (70.5%) and 56 patients (29.5%) were classified as having MAIP and MSIP, respectively. Four independent predictors (lactate dehydrogenase, triglyceride, cholesterol, and albumin levels) were identified for MSIP. A nomogram prediction model based on these factors was established. The model had areas under the curve of 0.865 and 0.853 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the nomogram has a good consistency.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram including lactate dehydrogenase, triglyceride, cholesterol, and albumin levels as independent predictors was built with good performance for MSIP prediction.

Matrix metalloproteinases and their inhibitors in pediatric severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasing in incidence in adult and pediatric patients. Identification of patients at high risk for progression to severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is crucial, as it can lead to increased mortality and health system cost. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are endopeptidases which degrade extracellular matrix proteins and increase activity of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs) regulate MMP activity. Prior limited studies of MMPs and TIMPs have found some to be associated with development of SAP. The aim of this study was to further investigate the role of MMPs and TIMPs in detecting pediatric patients at risk for developing moderately severe AP or SAP.

METHODS

Plasma samples were prospectively collected for patients <21 years of age presenting with AP between November 2015 and October 2019, along with healthy controls. Bead-based multiplex assays were utilized to test levels of 12 MMPs and TIMPs.

RESULTS

Samples were collected from 7 subjects who developed SAP, 7 with moderately severe AP, 45 with mild AP and 44 healthy controls. MMP-9 (p = 0.04) and TIMP-1 (p = 0.01) levels were significantly higher in SAP patients. A multivariable logistic regression model using MMP-9 and TIMP-1 predicted SAP (AUROC 0.87, 95% CI 0.76-0.98).

CONCLUSION

We have demonstrated that MMP9 and TIMP1 levels are increased at AP presentation in pediatric patients who developed SAP during the course of illness. Further studies are needed to validate the use of MMPs and TIMPs as predictive tools for development of SAP in pediatric pancreatitis.

Prevalence and impact of acute kidney injury in hospitalized pediatric patients with acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) in pediatric patients is rising with accompanying increased hospitalizations. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with worse clinical outcomes in adults, and similar data in the pediatric age group is limited.

METHODS

We analyzed non-overlapping years of National Inpatient Sample (NIS) and Kids Inpatient Database (KID) to include all patients less than 21 years old with primary diagnosis of AP between 2003 and 2016. Patients with concomitant diagnosis of AKI were compared with patients without AKI for demographics, comorbid/etiologic conditions, procedures, complications, and mortality. Length of stay and inflation-adjusted hospitalization charges were used to compare health care resource utilization.

RESULTS

In total, 123,185 AP-related hospitalizations were analyzed. Overall prevalence of AKI among AP patients was 1.5% during the study period. The prevalence rate of AKI increased almost five-fold from 0.6% (2003) to a peak rate of 2.9% (2016), P < 0.001. Patients with AKI were older, more often male and had either more systemic diseases or chronic comorbid conditions such as malignancies, systemic lupus erythematosus, solid organ transplantation, hypertriglyceridemia, and hypercalcemia. Multivariate analysis demonstrated AP-related hospitalizations with AKI were 1.97 (CI 1.27-3.08, P < 0.001) times more likely to be associated with in-hospital mortality and contributed to 4.3 additional days of hospitalization (CI 4.02-4.6, P < 0.001), also incurring an additional $51,830 (CI 48571-55088, P < 0.001) in hospital charges.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of AKI is increasing steadily among pediatric patients with AP and is associated with increased risk of mortality and higher health care resource expenditure.

Cytokine Profile Elevations on Admission Can Determine Risks of Severe Acute Pancreatitis in Children

OBJECTIVES

To utilize a Luminex platform to examine multiple cytokines simultaneously as well as clinical laboratory testing to identify markers that predict acute pancreatitis severity in the pediatric population on admission.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients (<19 years of age) prospectively enrolled over a 4-year period in a single institution acute pancreatitis database were included in separate derivation and validation cohorts. Plasma samples were obtained within 48 hours of admission and stored for analysis. Samples from mild acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis (moderately severe and severe combined) were analyzed using Luminex panels and C-reactive protein (CRP) testing.

RESULTS

The derivation cohort examined 62 cytokines in 66 subject samples (20 control, 36 mild acute pancreatitis, 10 severe acute pancreatitis) and identified interleukin 6 (IL-6) (P = .02) and monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) (P = .02) as cytokines that were differentially expressed between mild and severe acute pancreatitis. Our validation cohort analyzed 76 cytokines between 10 controls, 19 mild acute pancreatitis, and 6 severe acute pancreatitis subjects. IL-6 (P = .02) and MCP-1 (P = .007) were again found to differentiate mild acute pancreatitis from severe acute pancreatitis. CRP values were obtained from 53 of the subjects, revealing a strong association between elevated CRP values and progression to severe disease (P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified and validated IL-6 and MCP-1 as predictors of severe acute pancreatitis using 2 distinct cohorts and showed that CRP elevation is a marker of progression to severe acute pancreatitis. These biomarkers have not been extensively studied in the pediatric acute pancreatitis population. Our data allows for risk-stratification of patients with acute pancreatitis, and represent novel insight into the immunologic response in severe acute pancreatitis.

International Survey on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 and Acute Pancreatitis Co-occurrence in Children

OBJECTIVES

It is unknown to what extent coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) may co-occur with acute pancreatitis (AP) in children and how their clinical course may differ from children with AP alone.

METHODS

An online survey was sent to pediatric gastroenterologists to report on COVID-19 and AP cases from December 11, 2020, to February 26, 2021.

RESULTS

From 72 respondents (20 countries, 5 continents), 22 cases of positive COVID-19 infection and AP were reported. Patients were predominantly White or Hispanic/Latinx (73%), female (68%), and adolescents (68%). For 86% of patients, this was their first episode of AP. Sixty-eight percent of positive COVID-19 tests were polymerase chain reaction based. There was significant morbidity; 60% required intensive care, 45% had multiorgan involvement, and 24% developed shock. Eleven percent had pancreatic necrosis. Abnormal clotting and systemic inflammatory laboratories were common (31%-92% and 93%, respectively). Median length of symptomatic pancreatitis recovery was 1.8× longer than AP without COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Coronavirus 2019 infection and AP co-occur primarily in children without a prior history of pancreatitis. Given the increased need for intensive care, multiorgan involvement, and potentially higher risk for pancreatic necrosis, pediatric providers should have a high level of suspicion for AP in children with COVID-19 infection.

The association of parameters of body composition and laboratory markers with the severity of hypertriglyceridemia-induced pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Hypertriglyceridemia has arisen as the third leading cause of acute pancreatitis. This study aimed at exploring the association between the severity of hypertriglyceridemia-induced pancreatitis (HTGP) and computed tomography (CT)-based body composition parameters and laboratory markers.

METHODS

Laboratory and clinical parameters were collected from 242 patients with HTGP between 2017 and 2020. Severity of HTGP was evaluated by original or modified CT severity index. Body composition parameters such as area and radiodensity of muscle, subcutaneous adipose tissue and visceral adipose tissue were calculated by CT at the level of third lumbar vertebra. Parameters were compared between mild and moderately severe to severe HTGP. Uni-variate and multi-variate Logistic regression analyses were employed to assess the risk factors of the severity of HTGP.

RESULTS

Seventy patients (28.9%) presented with mild HTGP. Body mass index, waist circumference and all CT-based body composition parameters differed between male and female patients. None was associated with the severity of HTGP, neither in males nor in females. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that areas under the curves of apolipoprotein A-I and albumin to predict the severity of HTGP were 0.786 and 0.759, respectively (all P < 0.001). Uni-variate and further multi-variate Logistic regression analysis confirmed that low serum albumin (< 35 g/L, P = 0.004, OR = 3.362, 95%CI = 1.492-8.823) and apolipoprotein A-I (< 1.1 g/L, P < 0.001, OR = 5.126, 95%CI = 2.348-11.195), as well as high C-reactive protein (> 90 mg/L, P = 0.005, OR = 3.061, 95%CI = 1.407-6.659) and lipase (P = 0.033, OR = 2.283, 95%CI = 1.070-4.873) were risk factors of moderately severe to severe HTGP. Levels of albumin, apolipoprotein A-I, C-reactive protein and lipase were also associated with the length of hospital stay (all P < 0.05). Besides, low serum albumin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high radiodensity of subcutaneous adipose tissue were significant risk factors of pancreatic necrosis in patients with HTGP (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Low serum albumin and apolipoprotein A-I, and high C-reactive protein and lipase upon admission were associated with a more severe type of HTGP and longer hospital stay for these patients. Albumin and apolipoprotein A-I may serve as novel biomarkers for the severity of HTGP. However, none of the body composition parameters was associated with the severity of HTGP.