What Data Are Really Needed to Evaluate the Population Impact of Chlamydia Screening Programs?

Advancing the public health applications of Chlamydia trachomatis serology

Genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection is the most commonly diagnosed sexually transmitted infection. Trachoma is caused by ocular infection with C trachomatis and is the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. New serological assays for C trachomatis could facilitate improved understanding of C trachomatis epidemiology and prevention. C trachomatis serology offers a means of investigating the incidence of chlamydia infection and might be developed as a biomarker of scarring sequelae, such as pelvic inflammatory disease. Therefore, serological assays have potential as epidemiological tools to quantify unmet need, inform service planning, evaluate interventions including screening and treatment, and to assess new vaccine candidates. However, questions about the performance characteristics and interpretation of C trachomatis serological assays remain, which must be addressed to advance development within this field. In this Personal View, we explore the available information about C trachomatis serology and propose several priority actions. These actions involve development of target product profiles to guide assay selection and assessment across multiple applications and populations, establishment of a serum bank to facilitate assay development and evaluation, and development of technical and statistical methods for assay evaluation and analysis of serological findings. The field of C trachomatis serology will benefit from collaboration across the public health community to align technological developments with their potential applications.

Genital Chlamydia trachomatis Infections Clear More Slowly in Men Than Women, but Are Less Likely to Become Established

Background

Rigorous estimates for clearance rates of untreated chlamydia infections are important for understanding chlamydia epidemiology and designing control interventions, but were previously only available for women.

Methods

We used data from published studies of chlamydia-infected men who were retested at a later date without having received treatment. Our analysis allowed new infections to take one of 1, 2, or 3 courses, each clearing at a different rate. We determined which of these 3 models had the most empirical support.

Results

The best-fitting model had 2 courses of infection in men, as was previously found for women: “slow-clearing” and “fast-clearing.” Only 68% (57%–78%) (posterior median and 95% credible interval [CrI]) of incident infections in men were slow-clearing, vs 77% (69%–84%) in women. The slow clearance rate in men (based on 6 months’ follow-up) was 0.35 (.05–1.15) year^-1 (posterior median and 95% CrI), corresponding to mean infection duration 2.84 (.87–18.79) years. This compares to 1.35 (1.13–1.63) years in women.

Conclusions

Our estimated clearance rate is slower than previously assumed. Fewer infections become established in men than women but once established, they clear more slowly. This study provides an improved description of chlamydia’s natural history to inform public health decision making. We describe how further data collection could reduce uncertainty in estimates.