Is the "July Effect" Real? Pediatric Trainee Reported Medical Errors and Adverse Events

The Diagnostic Accuracy of First-Year Ophthalmology Residents on Call: Considerations for Postgraduate Year 2 (PGY-2) Standardizations of Call Structure

Background Ophthalmology is a unique specialty with limited exposure during medical school. To improve the transition to ophthalmology residency, the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) announced in 2017 that all ophthalmology residency programs would move to a combined post-graduate year (PGY) 1 year with mandatory integration by 2023. Currently, there are no standardized guidelines from the American Board of Ophthalmology (ABO) or the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) to address ophthalmology resident competence prior to becoming the primary contact for inpatient and emergency room (ER) consultations as a PGY-2. Novice residents may not be equipped to accurately diagnose vision or life-threatening ocular conditions. A balance between resident autonomy and supervision is required for proper training without increasing patient morbidity and mortality. Objective This study's objective is to examine the diagnostic accuracy of PGY-2 ophthalmology non-integrated residents on call to standardize supervision requirements (through buddy-call) prior to initiating indirectly supervised calls. Methods All inpatient and ER ophthalmology consults for the first seven weeks of the year evaluated by PGY-2 (junior) residents were supervised and graded as "correct" or "incorrect" by PGY-4 (senior) residents. Results One hundred forty-eight consults were seen over 30 call days over a period of seven weeks (4.93 consults per call). The percentage of correct diagnoses increased with each successive week (R2 = 0.9581; correlation = 0.979). The greatest percent increase of correctly diagnosed encounters was between weeks 2 and 3 (19.14%) correlating to call numbers 10-16 and 45-68 patient encounters. The mean percent accuracy surpassed 70% during weeks 3-4, and improvement continued to week 7. High-acuity diagnoses were identified consistently 100% of the time from week 5 onward. Conclusion Our analysis indicated that diagnostic accuracy was greater than 70% between weeks 3 and 4 with high-acuity diagnostic accuracy reaching 100% at week 5. It can be postulated that optimal direct senior resident supervision is needed for at least 3-5 weeks before transitioning to indirectly supervised calls by PGY-2 residents. This standardization would allow junior residents to acquire sufficient clinical experience to accurately make a diagnosis and prevent patient morbidity. Further research nationally is necessary prior to creating a standardized call structure for PGY-2 residents especially with the newly mandatory integrated ophthalmology residency programs.

A Nationwide Study of the “July Effect” Concerning Postpartum Hemorrhage and Its Risk Factors at Teaching Hospitals across the United States

Objective To assess the “July effect” and the risk of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) and its risk factors across the U.S. teaching hospitals. Method This study used the 2018 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) and included 2,056,359 of 2,879,924 single live-birth hospitalizations with low-risk pregnancies across the U.S. teaching hospitals. The International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) from the American Academy of Professional Coders (AAPC) medical coding was used to identify PPH and other study variables. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to compare the adjusted odds of PPH risk in the first and second quarters of the academic year vs. the second half of the academic year. Results Postpartum hemorrhage occurred in approximately 4.19% of the sample. We observed an increase in the adjusted odds of PPH during July through September (adjusted odds ratios (AOR), 1.05; confidence interval (CI), 1.02–1.10) and October through December (AOR, 1.07; CI, 1.04–1.12) compared to the second half of the academic year (January to June). Conclusions This study showed a significant “July effect” concerning PPH. However, given the mixed results concerning maternal outcomes at the time of childbirth other than PPH, more research is needed to investigate the “July effect” on the outcomes of the third stage of labor. This study’s findings have important implications for patient safety interventions concerning MCH.

Reassessing the July Effect: 30 Years of Evidence Show No Difference in Outcomes

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to critically evaluate whether admission at the beginning versus end of the academic year is associated with increased risk of major adverse outcomes.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The hypothesis that the arrival of new residents and fellows is associated with increases in adverse patient outcomes has been the subject of numerous research studies since 1989. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis of July Effect studies published before December 20, 2019, looking for differences in mortality, major morbidity, and readmission. Given a paucity of studies reporting readmission, we further analyzed 7 years of data from the Nationwide Readmissions Database to assess for differences in 30-day readmission for US patients admitted to urban teaching versus nonteach-ing hospitals with 3 common medical (acute myocardial infarction, acute ischemic stroke, and pneumonia) and 4 surgical (elective coronary artery bypass graft surgery, elective colectomy, craniotomy, and hip fracture) conditions using risk-adjusted logistic difference-in-difference regression.

RESULTS

A total of 113 studies met inclusion criteria; 92 (81.4%) reported no evidence of a July Effect. Among the remaining studies, results were mixed and commonly pointed toward system-level discrepancies in efficiency. Metaanalyses of mortality [odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.01 (0.98-1.05)] and major morbidity [1.01 (0.99-1.04)] demonstrated no evidence of a July Effect, no differences between specialties or countries, and no change in the effect over time. A total of 5.98 million patient encounters were assessed for readmission. No evidence of a July Effect on readmission was found for any of the 7 conditions.

CONCLUSION

The preponderance of negative results over the past 30 years suggests that it might be time to reconsider the need for similarly-themed studies and instead focus on system-level factors to improve hospital efficiency and optimize patient outcomes.

An evaluation of seasonal maternal-neonatal morbidity related to trainee cycles

BACKGROUND

The existence of the "July phenomenon" (worse outcomes related to the presence of new physician trainees in teaching hospitals) has been debated in the literature and media. Previous studies of the phenomenon in obstetrics are limited by the quality and detail of data.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether the months of June to August, when transitions in trainees occur, are associated with increased maternal and neonatal morbidity.

STUDY DESIGN

Secondary analysis of an observational cohort of 115,502 mother-infant pairs that delivered at 25 hospitals from March 2008 to February 2011. Inclusion criteria were an individual who had a singleton, nonanomalous live fetus at the onset of labor, and delivered at a hospital with trainees. The primary outcomes were composites of maternal and neonatal morbidity. We evaluated the outcomes by academic quarter during which the delivery occurred, beginning July 1, and by duration of the academic year as a continuous variable. To account for clustering in outcomes at a given delivery location, we applied hierarchical logistic regression with adjustment for hospital as a random effect.

RESULTS

Of 115,502 deliveries, 99,929 met the inclusion criteria. Race and ethnicity, insurance, body mass index, drug use, and the availability of 24/7 maternal-fetal medicine, anesthesia, and neonatology varied by quarter. In adjusted analysis, the frequency of the composite maternal and neonatal morbidity did not differ by quarter. No differences in composite morbidity were observed when using day of the year as a continuous variable (maternal morbidity adjusted odds ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.00 and neonatal morbidity adjusted odds ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.01) and after adjustment for hospital as a random effect. Odds of major surgical complications in quarter 2 were twice those in quarter 1. Neonatal injury and intensive care unit were less frequent in later quarters.

CONCLUSION

Maternal and neonatal morbidity in teaching hospitals was not associated with the academic quarter during which delivery occurred, and there was no evidence of a "July phenomenon".

Rates of Adverse Events in Hospitalized Patients After Summer-Time Resident Changeover in the United States: Is There a July Effect?

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine whether patients in teaching hospitals are at higher risk of suffering from an adverse event during the summer trainee changeover period.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data from the Medicare Patient Safety Monitoring System, a medical-record abstraction-based database in the United States. Hospital admissions from 2010 to 2017 for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, pneumonia, or a major surgical procedure were studied. Admissions were divided into nonsurgical (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia) and surgical. Adverse event rates in July/August were compared with the rest of the year. Hospitals were stratified into major teaching, minor teaching, or nonteaching. Results were adjusted for patient demographics, comorbidities, and hospital characteristics. Outcomes were the adjusted odds of having at least 1 adverse event in July/August versus the rest of the year.

RESULTS

We included 185,652 hospital admissions. The adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of suffering from at least one adverse event in a major teaching hospital in July/August was 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.98) for nonsurgical patients and 1.09 (95% CI, 0.84-1.40) for surgical patients. In minor teaching hospitals, the adjusted ORs were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.88-1.04) for nonsurgical patients and 0.99 (95% CI, 0.87-1.12) for surgical patients. In nonteaching hospitals, the adjusted ORs were 0.98 (95% CI, 0.91-1.06) for nonsurgical patients and 1.10 (95% CI, 0.96-1.24) for surgical patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients admitted to teaching hospitals in July/August are not at increased risk of adverse events. These findings should reassure patients and medical educators that patients are not excessively endangered by admission to the hospital during these months.

The July Phenomenon and Pediatric Trauma

BACKGROUND

The July Phenomenon describes concerns that patients presenting early in the academic year experience worse outcomes. Given the standardized approach to pediatric trauma patients, we hypothesized that the July Phenomenon would not impact morbidity or mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective review of patients ≤16 Y presenting to a level I pediatric trauma center between March 2009 and March2019 was performed. Pediatric patients admitted during the study period were compared for differences in outcome by month of presentation. The primary outcome was mortality. Secondary outcomes were complications, and length of emergency department, hospital and Intensive Care Unit stay. Multivariable regression was used to evaluate the effect of month of admission on outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 6,135 patients were evaluated, with 605 patients presenting in July. Univariate analysis failed to demonstrate consistently increased mortality, complications, or length of emergency department, hospital or Intensive Care Unit stay in July compared to months later in the academic year. On multivariate analysis, admission in July was not an independent predictor of worse outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this level I pediatric trauma center, pediatric trauma patients presenting earlier in the academic year have similar outcomes to those presenting later, and there is no evidence of a July Phenomenon in this population.

Pediatric Resident Education in Pulmonary (PREP): A Subspecialty Preparatory Boot Camp Curriculum for Pediatric Residents

INTRODUCTION

Medical errors can occur any time resident physicians transition between rotations, especially to unfamiliar areas such as subspecialty pediatrics. To combat this, we created and implemented the pediatric resident education in pulmonary (PREP) boot camp using Kern's six-step approach to curriculum development.

METHODS

PREP was a 5-hour session with multiple high-yield components held on the first day of each new rotation, aimed to prepare residents to care for complex pulmonary inpatients, including those with tracheostomy and ventilator dependence, asthma, and cystic fibrosis. The curriculum was evaluated at multiple time points through surveys of residents and faculty and two formal resident focus group sessions.

RESULTS

PREP was successfully implemented in July 2018 with continued monthly sessions held. Thirty-five residents participated in the first year. Resident perceived preparedness and confidence in taking call duties increased significantly following PREP. All residents rated PREP as extremely helpful or very helpful, the highest ratings possible. Overall, residents preferred active learning strategies. All qualitative data revealed positive effects of PREP. Clinical faculty in the pulmonology division found PREP similarly helpful and felt that PREP better prepared residents to provide care to pulmonary inpatients than our previous model.

DISCUSSION

Our monthly preparatory boot camp on the first day of residents' inpatient pulmonary rotation has improved resident experience, preparedness, and ability to care for complex pulmonary patients. The curriculum was adjusted in response to feedback to increase hands-on time and interactive sessions. Protected time for residents and active learning strategies were key to success of PREP.

The New Trainee Effect in Tracheal Intubation Procedural Safety Across PICUs in North America: A Report From National Emergency Airway Registry for Children

OBJECTIVES

Tracheal intubation carries a high risk of adverse events. The current literature is unclear regarding the "New Trainee Effect" on tracheal intubation safety in the PICU. We evaluated the effect of the timing of the PICU fellow academic cycle on tracheal intubation associated events. We hypothesize 1) PICUs with pediatric critical care medicine fellowship programs have more adverse tracheal intubation associated events during the first quarter (July-September) of the academic year compared with the rest of the year and 2) tracheal intubation associated event rates and first attempt success performed by pediatric critical care medicine fellows improve through the 3-year clinical fellowship.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Thirty-seven North American PICUs participating in National Emergency Airway Registry for Children.

PATIENTS

All patients who underwent tracheal intubations in the PICU from July 2013 to June 2017.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The occurrence of any tracheal intubation associated events during the first quarter of the academic year (July-September) was compared with the rest in four different types of PICUs: PICUs with fellows and residents, PICUs with fellows only, PICUs with residents only, and PICUs without trainees. For the second hypothesis, tracheal intubations by critical care medicine fellows were categorized by training level and quarter for 3 years of fellowship (i.e., July-September of 1st yr pediatric critical care medicine fellowship = first quarter, October-December of 1st yr pediatric critical care medicine fellowship = second quarter, and April-June during 3rd year = 12th quarter). A total of 9,774 tracheal intubations were reported. Seven-thousand forty-seven tracheal intubations (72%) were from PICUs with fellows and residents, 525 (5%) with fellows only, 1,201 (12%) with residents only, and 1,001 (10%) with no trainees. There was no difference in the occurrence of tracheal intubation associated events in the first quarter versus the rest of the year (all PICUs: July-September 14.9% vs October-June 15.2%; p = 0.76). There was no difference between these two periods in each type of PICUs (all p ≥ 0.19). For tracheal intubations by critical care medicine fellows (n = 3,836), tracheal intubation associated events significantly decreased over the fellowship: second quarter odds ratio 0.64 (95% CI, 0.45-0.91), third quarter odds ratio 0.58 (95% CI, 0.42-0.82), and 12th quarter odds ratio 0.40 (95% CI, 0.24-0.67) using the first quarter as reference after adjusting for patient and device characteristics. First attempt success significantly improved during fellowship: second quarter odds ratio 1.39 (95% CI, 1.04-1.85), third quarter odds ratio 1.59 (95% CI, 1.20-2.09), and 12th quarter odds ratio 2.11 (95% CI, 1.42-3.14).

CONCLUSIONS

The New Trainee Effect in tracheal intubation safety outcomes was not observed in various types of PICUs. There was a significant improvement in pediatric critical care medicine fellows' first attempt success and a significant decline in tracheal intubation associated event rates, indicating substantial skills acquisition throughout pediatric critical care medicine fellowship.

The July Effect for Total Joint Arthroplasty Procedures

The "July effect" refers to the assumed increased risk of complications during the months when medical school graduates transition to residency programs. The actual existence of a July effect is controversial. With this study, the authors sought to determine whether evidence exists for the presence of a July effect among total joint arthroplasty (TJA) procedures. The 2013 and 2014 Nationwide Readmission Databases were combined and all index primary and revision arthroplasty procedures were identified, and then patients from December were excluded. Thirty-day readmission rates, time to readmission, and readmission costs were analyzed by index procedure month and index procedure type. A total of 1,193,034 procedures (index primary: n=1,107,657; revision arthroplasty: n=85,377) were identified. Among all procedure types, 46,674 (3.9%) 30-day readmissions were observed. Among all procedures, an index procedure with a discharge in July resulted in the highest monthly readmission rate of the year (4.2%), which was significantly higher than the mean annual readmission rate (P<.0001). This effect was most pronounced for primary total knee arthroplasty (3.9% vs 3.6%, P<.0001). When stratifying results into teaching vs nonteaching hospitals, the highest readmission rate occurred if the index procedure occurred at a nonteaching hospital in July (4.5%, P<.0001). These data provide evidence that a July effect appears to exist for TJA procedures and is most pronounced at nonteaching institutions. Based on published mean readmission costs, the total annualized cost variation attributable to the higher readmission rate for primary TJA procedures in July is approximately $18.6 million. [Orthopedics. 2020;43(6):e543-e548.].