HIV RNA level in early infection is predicted by viral load in the transmission source

The Characteristics of the HIV-1 Env Glycoprotein Are Linked With Viral Pathogenesis

The understanding of HIV-1 pathogenesis and clinical progression is incomplete due to the variable contribution of host, immune, and viral factors. The involvement of viral factors has been investigated in extreme clinical phenotypes from rapid progressors to long-term non-progressors (LTNPs). Among HIV-1 proteins, the envelope glycoprotein complex (Env) has been concentrated on in many studies for its important role in the immune response and in the first steps of viral replication. In this study, we analyzed the contribution of 41 Envs from 24 patients with different clinical progression rates and viral loads (VLs), LTNP-Elite Controllers (LTNP-ECs); Viremic LTNPs (vLTNPs), and non-controller individuals contemporary to LTNPs or recent, named Old and Modern progressors. We studied the Env expression, the fusion and cell-to-cell transfer capacities, as well as viral infectivity. The sequence and phylogenetic analysis of Envs were also performed. In every functional characteristic, the Envs from subjects with viral control (LTNP-ECs and vLTNPs) showed significant lower performance compared to those from the progressor individuals (Old and Modern). Regarding sequence analysis, the variable loops of the gp120 subunit of the Env (i.e., V2, V4, and mainly V5) of the progressor individuals showed longer and more glycosylated sequences than controller subjects. Therefore, HIV-1 Envs from virus of patients presenting viremic control and the non-progressor clinical phenotype showed poor viral functions and shorter sequences, whereas functional Envs were associated with virus of patients lacking virological control and with progressor clinical phenotypes. These correlations support the role of Env genotypic and phenotypic characteristics in the in vivo HIV-1 infection and pathogenesis.

Heritability of the HIV-1 reservoir size and decay under long-term suppressive ART

The HIV-1 reservoir is the major hurdle to curing HIV-1. However, the impact of the viral genome on the HIV-1 reservoir, i.e. its heritability, remains unknown. We investigate the heritability of the HIV-1 reservoir size and its long-term decay by analyzing the distribution of those traits on viral phylogenies from both partial-pol and viral near full-length genome sequences. We use a unique nationwide cohort of 610 well-characterized HIV-1 subtype-B infected individuals on suppressive ART for a median of 5.4 years. We find that a moderate but significant fraction of the HIV-1 reservoir size 1.5 years after the initiation of ART is explained by genetic factors. At the same time, we find more tentative evidence for the heritability of the long-term HIV-1 reservoir decay. Our findings indicate that viral genetic factors contribute to the HIV-1 reservoir size and hence the infecting HIV-1 strain may affect individual patients’ hurdle towards a cure.

The HIV reservoir is a major hurdle for a cure of HIV, but the factors determining its size and dynamics remain unclear. Here the authors show in a large cohort of 610 HIV-1 infected individuals, who are on suppressive ART for a median of 5.4 years, that viral genetic factors contribute substantially to the HIV-1 reservoir size.

Intrinsic Replication Competences of HIV Strains After Zidovudine/Lamivudine/Nevirapine Treatment in the Philippines

Although drug-resistant HIV variants are considered to be less fit than drug-susceptible viruses, replication competence of these variants harbored by patients has not yet been elucidated in detail. We herein assessed the replication competence of strains obtained from individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy. Among 11 306 participants in a drug resistance surveillance in the Philippines, 2629 plasma samples were obtained from individuals after a 12-month treatment with zidovudine (ZDV)/lamivudine (3TC)/nevirapine (NVP). The replication competence of HIV isolates was then assessed by reinoculation into seronegative peripheral blood mononuclear cells in the absence of drugs in vitro. The drug resistance rate was estimated to be 9.2%. Drug-resistant strains were still a minority of closely related strains in a phylogenetic cluster. Among the available 295 samples, 37 HIV strains were successfully isolated. Progeny viruses were produced at a wide range (5.1 × 10⁶ to 3.4 × 10⁹ copies/mL) in primary culture of peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The viral yields were higher than the corresponding plasma viral load (1300 to 3.4 × 10⁶ copies/mL) but correlated with those (r = 0.4). These results suggest that strains with higher intrinsic replication competence are one of the primary targets of newly selected drugs at the increasing phase of the plasma viral load during antiretroviral therapy.

Natural selection favoring more transmissible HIV detected in United States molecular transmission network

HIV molecular epidemiology can identify clusters of individuals with elevated rates of HIV transmission. These variable transmission rates are primarily driven by host risk behavior; however, the effect of viral traits on variable transmission rates is poorly understood. Viral load, the concentration of HIV in blood, is a heritable viral trait that influences HIV infectiousness and disease progression. Here, we reconstruct HIV genetic transmission clusters using data from the United States National HIV Surveillance System and report that viruses in clusters, inferred to be frequently transmitted, have higher viral loads at diagnosis. Further, viral load is higher in people in larger clusters and with increased network connectivity, suggesting that HIV in the United States is experiencing natural selection to be more infectious and virulent. We also observe a concurrent increase in viral load at diagnosis over the last decade. This evolutionary trajectory may be slowed by prevention strategies prioritized toward rapidly growing transmission clusters.

Circumcision status at HIV infection is not associated with plasma viral load in men: analysis of specimens from a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Male circumcision provides men with approximately 60% protection from acquiring HIV infection via heterosexual sex, and has become a key component of HIV prevention efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. Possible mechanisms for this protection include removal of the inflammatory anaerobic sub-preputial environment and the high concentration of Langerhans cells on the inside of the foreskin, both believed to promote local vulnerability to HIV infection. In people who do acquire HIV, viral load is partially determined by infecting partner viral load, potentially mediated by size of infecting inoculum. By removing a portal for virion entry, prior male circumcision could decrease infecting inoculum and thus viral load in men who become HIV-infected, conferring the known associated benefits of slower progression to disease and decreased infectiousness.

METHODS

We performed an as-treated analysis of plasma samples collected under a randomized controlled trial of male circumcision for HIV prevention, comparing men based on their circumcision status at the time of HIV acquisition, to determine whether circumcision is associated with lower viral load. Eligible men were seroconverters who had at least one plasma sample available drawn at least 6 months after infection, reported no potential exposures other than vaginal sex and, for those who were circumcised, were infected more than 6 weeks after circumcision, to eliminate the open wound as a confounder. Initial viral load testing indicated that quality of pre-2007 samples might have been compromised during storage and they were excluded, as were those with undetectable or unquantifiable results. Log viral loads were compared between groups using univariable and multivariable linear regression, adjusting for sample age and sexually transmitted infection diagnosis with 3.5 months of seroconversion, with a random effect for intra-individual clustering for samples from the same man. A per-protocol analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

There were no viral load differences between men who were circumcised and uncircumcised at the time of HIV infection (means 4.00 and 4.03 log₁₀ copies/mL respectively, p = .88) in any analysis.

CONCLUSION

Circumcision status at the time of HIV infection does not affect viral load in men.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The original RCT which provided the samples was ClinicalTrials.gov trial NCT00059371 .

A Practical Guide to Estimating the Heritability of Pathogen Traits

Pathogen traits, such as the virulence of an infection, can vary significantly between patients. A major challenge is to measure the extent to which genetic differences between infecting strains explain the observed variation of the trait. This is quantified by the trait’s broad-sense heritability, H². A recent discrepancy between estimates of the heritability of HIV-virulence has opened a debate on the estimators’ accuracy. Here, we show that the discrepancy originates from model limitations and important lifecycle differences between sexually reproducing organisms and transmittable pathogens. In particular, current quantitative genetics methods, such as donor–recipient regression of surveyed serodiscordant couples and the phylogenetic mixed model (PMM), are prone to underestimate H², because they neglect or do not fit to the loss of resemblance between transmission partners caused by within-host evolution. In a phylogenetic analysis of 8,483 HIV patients from the United Kingdom, we show that the phenotypic correlation between transmission partners decays with the amount of within-host evolution of the virus. We reproduce this pattern in toy-model simulations and show that a phylogenetic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model (POUMM) outperforms the PMM in capturing this correlation pattern and in quantifying H². In particular, we show that POUMM outperforms PMM even in simulations without selection—as it captures the mentioned correlation pattern—which has not been appreciated until now. By cross-validating the POUMM estimates with ANOVA on closest phylogenetic pairs, we obtain H² ≈ 0.2, meaning ∼20% of the variation in HIV-virulence is explained by the virus genome both for European and African data.

Parent-offspring regression to estimate the heritability of an HIV-1 trait in a realistic setup

Background

Parent-offspring (PO) regression is a central tool to determine the heritability of phenotypic traits; i.e., the relative extent to which those traits are controlled by genetic factors. The applicability of PO regression to viral traits is unclear because the direction of viral transmission—who is the donor (parent) and who is the recipient (offspring)—is typically unknown and viral phylogenies are sparsely sampled.

Methods

We assessed the applicability of PO regression in a realistic setting using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck simulated data on phylogenies built from 11,442 Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) partial pol sequences and set-point viral load (SPVL) data from 3293 patients.

Results

We found that the misidentification of donor and recipient plays a minor role in estimating heritability and showed that sparse sampling does not influence the mean heritability estimated by PO regression. A mixed-effect model approach yielded the same heritability as PO regression but could be extended to clusters of size greater than 2 and allowed for the correction of confounding effects. Finally, we used both methods to estimate SPVL heritability in the SHCS. We employed a wide range of transmission pair criteria to measure heritability and found a strong dependence of the heritability estimates to these criteria. For the most conservative genetic distance criteria, for which heritability estimates are conceptually expected to be closest to true heritability, we found estimates ranging from 32 to 46% across different bootstrap criteria. For less conservative distance criteria, we found estimates ranging down to 8%. All estimates did not change substantially after adjusting for host-demographic factors in the mixed-effect model (±2%).

Conclusions

For conservative transmission pair criteria, both PO regression and mixed-effect models are flexible and robust tools to estimate the contribution of viral genetic effects to viral traits under real-world settings. Overall, we find a strong effect of viral genetics on SPVL that is not confounded by host demographics.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12977-017-0356-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Replication Capacity of Viruses from Acute Infection Drives HIV-1 Disease Progression

The viral genotype has been shown to play an important role in HIV pathogenesis following transmission. However, the viral phenotypic properties that contribute to disease progression remain unclear. Most studies have been limited to the evaluation of Gag function in the context of a recombinant virus backbone. Using this approach, important biological information may be lost, making the evaluation of viruses obtained during acute infection, representing the transmitted virus, a more biologically relevant model. Here, we evaluate the roles of viral infectivity and the replication capacity of viruses from acute infection in disease progression in women who seroconverted in the CAPRISA 004 tenofovir microbicide trial. We show that viral replication capacity, but not viral infectivity, correlates with the set point viral load (Spearman r = 0.346; P = 0.045) and that replication capacity (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.52; P = 0.01) can predict CD4 decline independently of the viral load (HR = 2.9; P = 0.004) or protective HLA alleles (HR = 0.61; P = 0.36). We further demonstrate that Gag-Pro is not the main driver of this association, suggesting that additional properties of the transmitted virus play a role in disease progression. Finally, we find that although viruses from the tenofovir arm were 2-fold less infectious, they replicated at rates similar to those of viruses from the placebo arm. This indicates that the use of tenofovir gel did not select for viral variants with higher replication capacity. Overall, this study supports a strong influence of the replication capacity in acute infection on disease progression, potentially driven by interaction of multiple genes rather than a dominant role of the major structural gene gagIMPORTANCE HIV disease progression is known to differ between individuals, and defining which fraction of this variation can be attributed to the virus is important both clinically and epidemiologically. In this study, we show that the replication capacity of viruses isolated during acute infection predicts subsequent disease progression and drives CD4 decline independently of the viral load. This provides further support for the hypothesis that the replication capacity of the transmitted virus determines the initial damage to the immune system, setting the pace for later disease progression. However, we did not find evidence that the major structural gene gag drives this correlation, highlighting the importance of other genes in determining disease progression.

Current diagnostic methods for HIV

Detection of HIV infection is essential for diagnosis and monitoring of the infection. There are different types of diagnostic tools available that are based on detection of HIV-specific antibodies, viral antigen or nucleic acid. Sensitivities and specificities of assays utilized for HIV detection have improved. Newer HIV testing technologies such as third-generation enzyme immunoassay which detect HIV-specific IgG and IgM antibodies, fourth-generation enzyme immunoassay which detect both anti-HIV antibodies and HIV p24 antigen and nucleic acid based tests for HIV RNA have significantly decreased the window period. This review provides an overview of current technologies for the detection and monitoring of HIV infection and recent advances in the field of HIV diagnosis.

Factors Associated With the Control of Viral Replication and Virologic Breakthrough in a Recently Infected HIV-1 Controller

HIV-1 controllers are patients who control HIV-1 viral replication without antiretroviral therapy. Control is achieved very early in the course of infection, but the mechanisms through which viral replication is restricted are not fully understood. We describe a patient who presented with acute HIV-1 infection and was found to have an HIV-1 RNA level of < 100 copies/mL. She did not have any known protective HLA alleles, but significant immune activation of CD8 + T cells and natural killer (NK) cells was present, and both cell types inhibited viral replication. Virus cultured from this patient replicated as well in vitro as virus isolated from her partner, a patient with AIDS who was the source of transmission. Virologic breakthrough occurred 9 months after her initial presentation and was associated with an increase in CD4 + T cell activation levels and a significant decrease in NK cell inhibitory capacity. Remarkably, CD8 + T cell inhibitory capacity was preserved and there were no new escape mutations in targeted Gag epitopes. These findings suggest that fully replication-competent virus can be controlled in acute HIV-1 infection in some patients without protective HLA alleles and that NK cell responses may contribute to this early control of viral replication.

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We show that an HIV-1 controller was infected with pathogenic virus yet maintained low viral loads during primary infection.

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She had activated NK cells and CD8+ T cells and both cell types suppressed HIV-1 replication shortly after infection.

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She eventually lost control of viral replication, and this was associated with a reduction in NK cell suppressive activity.

HIV-1 controllers are patients who control the virus without HIV-1 medications. These patients may teach us how to design a vaccine against HIV-1. Little is known about how the virus is controlled in the early phase of infection in these patients. Here we show that a recently infected HIV-1 controller had a strong natural killer cell response to the virus. Interestingly, she lost control of the virus 9 months later and her natural killer cell response to the virus was diminished. Our work suggests that natural killer cells may have contributed to viral control in the early phase of infection.

Virus-Host Gene Interactions Define HIV-1 Disease Progression

In this chapter, we will review recent research on the virology of HIV-1 transmission and the impact of the transmitted virus genotype on subsequent disease progression. In most instances of HIV-1 sexual transmission, a single genetic variant, or a very limited number of variants from the diverse viral quasi-species present in the transmitting partner establishes systemic infection. Transmission involves both stochastic and selective processes, such that in general a minority variant in the donor is transmitted. While there is clear evidence for selection, the biological properties that mediate transmission remain incompletely defined. Nevertheless, the genotype of the transmitted founder virus, which reflects prior exposure to and escape from host immune responses, clearly influences disease progression. Some escape mutations impact replicative capacity, while others effectively cloak the virus from the newly infected host's immune response by preventing recognition. It is the balance between the impact of escape mutations on viral fitness and susceptibility to the host immunogenetics that defines HIV-1 disease progression.

Acute HIV infection transmission among people who inject drugs in a mature epidemic setting

OBJECTIVE

Estimates for the contribution of transmission arising from acute HIV infections (AHIs) to overall HIV incidence vary significantly. Furthermore, little is known about AHI-attributable transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID), including the extent to which interventions targeting chronic infections (e.g. HAART as prevention) are limited by AHI transmission. Thus, we estimated the proportion of transmission events attributable to AHI within the mature HIV epidemic among PWID in New York City (NYC).

DESIGN

Modeling study.

METHODS

We constructed an interactive sexual and injecting transmission network using an agent-based model simulating the HIV epidemic in NYC between 1996 and 2012. Using stochastic microsimulations, we cataloged transmission from PWID based on the disease stage of index agents to determine the proportion of infections transmitted during AHI (in primary analyses, assumed to last 3 months).

RESULTS

Our calibrated model approximated the epidemiological features of the mature HIV epidemic in NYC between 1996 and 2012. Annual HIV incidence among PWID dropped from approximately 1.8% in 1996 to 0.7% in 2012. Over the 16-year period, AHI accounted for 4.9% (10th/90th percentile: 0.1-12.3%) of incident HIV cases among PWID. The annualized contribution of AHI increased over this period from 3.6% in 1996 to 5.9% in 2012.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that, in mature epidemics such as NYC, between 3% and 6% of transmission events are attributable to AHI among PWID. Current HIV treatment as prevention strategies are unlikely to be substantially affected by AHI-attributable transmission among PWID populations in mature epidemic settings.

Evolution of HIV virulence in response to widespread scale up of antiretroviral therapy: a modeling study

There are global increases in the use of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), guided by clinical benefits of early ART initiation and the efficacy of treatment as prevention of transmission. Separately, it has been shown theoretically and empirically that HIV virulence can evolve over time; observed virulence levels may reflect an adaptive balance between infected lifespan and per-contact transmission rate. However, the potential effects of widespread ART usage on HIV virulence are unknown. To predict these effects, we used an agent-based stochastic model to simulate evolutionary trends in HIV virulence, using set point viral load as a proxy for virulence. We calibrated our model to prevalence and incidence trends of South Africa. We explored two distinct ART scenarios: (1) ART initiation based on HIV-infected individuals reaching a CD4 count threshold; and (2) ART initiation based on individual time elapsed since HIV infection (a scenario that mimics "universal testing and treatment" (UTT) aspirations). In each case, we considered a range in population uptake of ART. We found that HIV virulence is generally unchanged in scenarios of CD4-based initiation. However, with ART initiation based on time since infection, virulence can increase moderately within several years of ART rollout, under high coverage levels and early treatment initiation (albeit within the context of epidemics that are rapidly decreasing in size). Sensitivity analyses suggested the impact of ART on virulence is relatively insensitive to model calibration. Our modeling study suggests that increasing HIV virulence driven by UTT is likely not a major public health concern, but should be monitored in sentinel surveillance, in a manner similar to transmitted resistance to antiretroviral drugs.

Potential Pitfalls in Estimating Viral Load Heritability

In HIV patients, the set-point viral load (SPVL) is the most widely used predictor of disease severity. Yet SPVL varies over several orders of magnitude between patients. The heritability of SPVL quantifies how much of the variation in SPVL is due to transmissible viral genetics. There is currently no clear consensus on the value of SPVL heritability, as multiple studies have reported apparently discrepant estimates. Here we illustrate that the discrepancies in estimates are most likely due to differences in the estimation methods, rather than the study populations. Importantly, phylogenetic estimates run the risk of being strongly confounded by unrealistic model assumptions. Care must be taken when interpreting and comparing the different estimates to each other.

Role of HLA Adaptation in HIV Evolution

Killing of HIV-infected cells by CD8⁺ T-cells imposes strong selection pressure on the virus toward escape. The HLA class I molecules that are successful in mediating some degree of control over the virus are those that tend to present epitopes in conserved regions of the proteome, such as in p24 Gag, in which escape also comes at a significant cost to viral replicative capacity (VRC). In some instances, compensatory mutations can fully correct for the fitness cost of such an escape variant; in others, correction is only partial. The consequences of these events within the HIV-infected host, and at the population level following transmission of escape variants, are discussed. The accumulation of escape mutants in populations over the course of the epidemic already shows instances of protective HLA molecules losing their impact, and in certain cases, a modest decline in HIV virulence in association with population-level increase in mutants that reduce VRC.

HIV infection

More than 75 million people worldwide have been infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and there are now approximately 37 million individuals living with the infection. Untreated HIV replication causes progressive CD4(+) T cell loss and a wide range of immunological abnormalities, leading to an increased risk of infectious and oncological complications. HIV infection also contributes to cardiovascular disease, bone disease, renal and hepatic dysfunction and several other common morbidities. Antiretroviral drugs are highly effective at inhibiting HIV replication, and for individuals who can access and adhere to these drugs, combination antiretroviral therapy leads to durable (and probably lifelong) suppression of viral replication. Viral suppression enables immune recovery and the near elimination of the risk for developing acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). Despite effective treatment, HIV-infected individuals have a higher than expected risk of heart, bone, liver, kidney and neurological disease. When used optimally by an infected (or by an uninfected) person, antiretroviral drugs can virtually eliminate the risk of HIV transmission. Despite major advances in prevention sciences, HIV transmission remains common in many vulnerable populations, including men who have sex with men, injection drug users and sex workers. Owing to a lack of widespread HIV testing and the costs and toxicities associated with antiretroviral drugs, the majority of the infected population is not on effective antiretroviral therapy. To reverse the pandemic, improved prevention, treatment and implementation approaches are necessary.

Discordant Impact of HLA on Viral Replicative Capacity and Disease Progression in Pediatric and Adult HIV Infection

HLA class I polymorphism has a major influence on adult HIV disease progression. An important mechanism mediating this effect is the impact on viral replicative capacity (VRC) of the escape mutations selected in response to HLA-restricted CD8+ T-cell responses. Factors that contribute to slow progression in pediatric HIV infection are less well understood. We here investigate the relationship between VRC and disease progression in pediatric infection, and the effect of HLA on VRC and on disease outcome in adult and pediatric infection. Studying a South African cohort of >350 ART-naïve, HIV-infected children and their mothers, we first observed that pediatric disease progression is significantly correlated with VRC. As expected, VRCs in mother-child pairs were strongly correlated (p = 0.004). The impact of the protective HLA alleles, HLA-B*57, HLA-B*58:01 and HLA-B*81:01, resulted in significantly lower VRCs in adults (p<0.0001), but not in children. Similarly, in adults, but not in children, VRCs were significantly higher in subjects expressing the disease-susceptible alleles HLA-B*18:01/45:01/58:02 (p = 0.007). Irrespective of the subject, VRCs were strongly correlated with the number of Gag CD8+ T-cell escape mutants driven by HLA-B*57/58:01/81:01 present in each virus (p = 0.0002). In contrast to the impact of VRC common to progression in adults and children, the HLA effects on disease outcome, that are substantial in adults, are small and statistically insignificant in infected children. These data further highlight the important role that VRC plays both in adult and pediatric progression, and demonstrate that HLA-independent factors, yet to be fully defined, are predominantly responsible for pediatric non-progression.

Newly Exerted T Cell Pressures on Mutated Epitopes following Transmission Help Maintain Consensus HIV-1 Sequences

CD8+ T cells are important for HIV-1 virus control, but are also a major contributing factor that drives HIV-1 virus sequence evolution. Although HIV-1 cytotoxic T cell (CTL) escape mutations are a common aspect during HIV-1 infection, less is known about the importance of T cell pressure in reversing HIV-1 virus back to a consensus sequences. In this study we aimed to assess the frequency with which reversion of transmitted mutations in T cell epitopes were associated with T cell responses to the mutation. This study included 14 HIV-1 transmission pairs consisting of a 'source' (virus-donor) and a 'recipient' (newly infected individual). Non-consensus B sequence amino acids (mutations) in T cell epitopes in HIV-1 gag regions p17, p24, p2 and p7 were identified in each pair and transmission of mutations to the recipient was verified with population viral sequencing. Longitudinal analyses of the recipient's viral sequence were used to identify whether reversion of mutations back to the consensus B sequence occurred. Autologous 12-mer peptides overlapping by 11 were synthesized, representing the sequence region surrounding each reversion and longitudinal analysis of T cell responses to source-derived mutated and reverted epitopes were assessed. We demonstrated that mutations in the source were frequently transmitted to the new host and on an average 17 percent of mutated epitopes reverted to consensus sequence in the recipient. T cell responses to these mutated epitopes were detected in 7 of the 14 recipients in whom reversion occurred. Overall, these findings indicate that transmitted non-consensus B epitopes are frequently immunogenic in HLA-mismatched recipients and new T cell pressures to T cell escape mutations following transmission play a significant role in maintaining consensus HIV-1 sequences.

High heritability is compatible with the broad distribution of set point viral load in HIV carriers

Set point viral load in HIV patients ranges over several orders of magnitude and is a key determinant of disease progression in HIV. A number of recent studies have reported high heritability of set point viral load implying that viral genetic factors contribute substantially to the overall variation in viral load. The high heritability is surprising given the diversity of host factors associated with controlling viral infection. Here we develop an analytical model that describes the temporal changes of the distribution of set point viral load as a function of heritability. This model shows that high heritability is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed variance of set point viral load. Our results thus not only reinforce the credibility of previous estimates of heritability but also shed new light onto mechanisms of viral pathogenesis.

Following an initial peak in viremia, the viral load in HIV infected patients settles down to a set point which remains more or less stable during chronic HIV infection. This set point viral load is one of the key factors determining the rate of disease progression. The extent to which it is determined by the virus versus host genetics is thus central to developing a better understanding of disease progression. Here we develop an analytical model that describes the changes of the distribution of set point viral load in the HIV carrier population over a full cycle of transmission. Applying this model to patient data we find that the most parsimonious explanation for the observed large variation of set point viral load across HIV patients is that set point viral load is highly heritable from donors to recipients. This implies that set point viral load is to a considerable extent under the genetic control of the virus.

Host genetic and viral determinants of HIV-1 RNA set point among HIV-1 seroconverters from sub-saharan Africa

We quantified the collective impact of source partner HIV-1 RNA levels, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles, and innate responses through Toll-like receptor (TLR) alleles on the HIV-1 set point. Data came from HIV-1 seroconverters in African HIV-1 serodiscordant couple cohorts. Linear regression was used to determine associations with set point and R(2) to estimate variation explained by covariates. The strongest predictors of set point were HLA alleles (B*53:01, B*14:01, and B*27:03) and plasma HIV-1 levels of the transmitting partner, which explained 13% and 10% of variation in set point, respectively. HLA-A concordance between partners and TLR polymorphisms (TLR2 rs3804100 and TLR7 rs179012) also were associated with set point, explaining 6% and 5% of the variation, respectively. Overall, these factors and genital factors of the transmitter (i.e., male circumcision, bacterial vaginosis, and use of acyclovir) explained 46% of variation in set point. We found that both innate and adaptive immune responses, together with plasma HIV-1 levels of the transmitting partner, explain almost half of the variation in viral load set point.

IMPORTANCE

After HIV-1 infection, uncontrolled virus replication leads to a rapid increase in HIV-1 concentrations. Once host immune responses develop, however, HIV-1 levels reach a peak and subsequently decline until they reach a stable level that may persist for years. This stable HIV-1 set point represents an equilibrium between the virus and host responses and is predictive of later disease progression and transmission potential. Understanding how host and virus factors interact to determine HIV-1 set point may elucidate novel mechanisms or biological pathways for treating HIV-1 infection. We identified host and virus factors that predict HIV-1 set point in people who recently acquired HIV-1, finding that both innate and adaptive immune responses, along with factors that likely influence HIV-1 virulence and inoculum, explain ∼46% of the variation in HIV-1 set point.

HIV-1 adaptation to HLA: a window into virus-host immune interactions

HIV-1 develops specific mutations within its genome that allow it to escape detection by human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I-restricted immune responses, notably those of CD8(+) cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL). HLA thus represents a major force driving the evolution and diversification of HIV-1 within individuals and at the population level. Importantly, the study of HIV-1 adaptation to HLA also represents an opportunity to identify what qualities constitute an effective immune response, how the virus in turn adapts to these pressures, and how we may harness this information to design HIV-1 vaccines that stimulate effective cellular immunity.

Transmitted virus fitness and host T cell responses collectively define divergent infection outcomes in two HIV-1 recipients

Control of virus replication in HIV-1 infection is critical to delaying disease progression. While cellular immune responses are a key determinant of control, relatively little is known about the contribution of the infecting virus to this process. To gain insight into this interplay between virus and host in viral control, we conducted a detailed analysis of two heterosexual HIV-1 subtype A transmission pairs in which female recipients sharing three HLA class I alleles exhibited contrasting clinical outcomes: R880F controlled virus replication while R463F experienced high viral loads and rapid disease progression. Near full-length single genome amplification defined the infecting transmitted/founder (T/F) virus proteome and subsequent sequence evolution over the first year of infection for both acutely infected recipients. T/F virus replicative capacities were compared in vitro, while the development of the earliest cellular immune response was defined using autologous virus sequence-based peptides. The R880F T/F virus replicated significantly slower in vitro than that transmitted to R463F. While neutralizing antibody responses were similar in both subjects, during acute infection R880F mounted a broad T cell response, the most dominant components of which targeted epitopes from which escape was limited. In contrast, the primary HIV-specific T cell response in R463F was focused on just two epitopes, one of which rapidly escaped. This comprehensive study highlights both the importance of the contribution of the lower replication capacity of the transmitted/founder virus and an associated induction of a broad primary HIV-specific T cell response, which was not undermined by rapid epitope escape, to long-term viral control in HIV-1 infection. It underscores the importance of the earliest CD8 T cell response targeting regions of the virus proteome that cannot mutate without a high fitness cost, further emphasizing the need for vaccines that elicit a breadth of T cell responses to conserved viral epitopes.

High Transmissibility During Early HIV Infection Among Men Who Have Sex With Men-San Francisco, California

We estimate the relative transmission rate in early versus later infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco, California, by studying the characteristics of a sample of transmitters, recruited through newly diagnosed, recently infected MSM between 1996 and 2009. Of 36 transmitters identified, 9 were determined on the basis of testing history and serologic testing to have been recently infected. The unadjusted odds ratio of transmitting during early infection was 15.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.3–33.4; P < .001); the odds ratio was 8.9 (95% CI, 4.1–19.4) after adjustment for self-reported antiretroviral treatment. This high transmissibility could be due to both high infectiousness and high rates of sex partner change or concurrent partnerships.

Immuno-epidemiological modeling of HIV-1 predicts high heritability of the set-point virus load, while selection for CTL escape dominates virulence evolution

It has been suggested that HIV-1 has evolved its set-point virus load to be optimized for transmission. Previous epidemiological models and studies into the heritability of set-point virus load confirm that this mode of adaptation within the human population is feasible. However, during the many cycles of replication between infection of a host and transmission to the next host, HIV-1 is under selection for escape from immune responses, and not transmission. Here we investigate with computational and mathematical models how these two levels of selection, within-host and between-host, are intertwined. We find that when the rate of immune escape is comparable to what has been observed in patients, immune selection within hosts is dominant over selection for transmission. Surprisingly, we do find high values for set-point virus load heritability, and argue that high heritability estimates can be caused by the 'footprints' left by differing hosts' immune systems on the virus.

Impact of HLA-driven HIV adaptation on virulence in populations of high HIV seroprevalence

It is widely believed that epidemics in new hosts diminish in virulence over time, with natural selection favoring pathogens that cause minimal disease. However, a tradeoff frequently exists between high virulence shortening host survival on the one hand but allowing faster transmission on the other. This is the case in HIV infection, where high viral loads increase transmission risk per coital act but reduce host longevity. We here investigate the impact on HIV virulence of HIV adaptation to HLA molecules that protect against disease progression, such as HLA-B*57 and HLA-B*58:01. We analyzed cohorts in Botswana and South Africa, two countries severely affected by the HIV epidemic. In Botswana, where the epidemic started earlier and adult seroprevalence has been higher, HIV adaptation to HLA including HLA-B*57/58:01 is greater compared with South Africa (P = 7 × 10(-82)), the protective effect of HLA-B*57/58:01 is absent (P = 0.0002), and population viral replicative capacity is lower (P = 0.03). These data suggest that viral evolution is occurring relatively rapidly, and that adaptation of HIV to the most protective HLA alleles may contribute to a lowering of viral replication capacity at the population level, and a consequent reduction in HIV virulence over time. The potential role in this process played by increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) access is also explored. Models developed here suggest distinct benefits of ART, in addition to reducing HIV disease and transmission, in driving declines in HIV virulence over the course of the epidemic, thereby accelerating the effects of HLA-mediated viral adaptation.

HIV transmission. Selection bias at the heterosexual HIV-1 transmission bottleneck

Heterosexual transmission of HIV-1 typically results in one genetic variant establishing systemic infection. We compared, for 137 linked transmission pairs, the amino acid sequences encoded by non-envelope genes of viruses in both partners and demonstrate a selection bias for transmission of residues that are predicted to confer increased in vivo fitness on viruses in the newly infected, immunologically naïve recipient. Although tempered by transmission risk factors, such as donor viral load, genital inflammation, and recipient gender, this selection bias provides an overall transmission advantage for viral quasispecies that are dominated by viruses with high in vivo fitness. Thus, preventative or therapeutic approaches that even marginally reduce viral fitness may lower the overall transmission rates and offer long-term benefits even upon successful transmission.

Impact of HLA selection pressure on HIV fitness at a population level in Mexico and Barbados

Previous studies have demonstrated that effective cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses drive the selection of escape mutations that reduce viral replication capacity (VRC). Escape mutations, including those with reduced VRC, can be transmitted and accumulate in a population. Here we compared two antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive HIV clade B-infected cohorts, in Mexico and Barbados, in which the most protective HLA alleles (HLA-B*27/57/58:01/81:01) are differentially expressed, at 8% and 34%, respectively. Viral loads were significantly higher in Mexico than in Barbados (median, 40,774 versus 14,200; P < 0.0001), and absolute CD4⁺ T-cell counts were somewhat lower (median, 380/mm³ versus 403/mm³; P = 0.007). We tested the hypothesis that the disparate frequencies of these protective HLA alleles would be associated with a higher VRC at the population level in Mexico. Analysis of VRC in subjects in each cohort, matched for CD4⁺ T-cell count, revealed that the VRC was indeed higher in the Mexican cohort (mean, 1.13 versus 1.03; P = 0.0025). Although CD4 counts were matched, viral loads remained significantly higher in the Mexican subjects (P = 0.04). This VRC difference was reflected by a significantly higher frequency in the Barbados cohort of HLA-B*27/57/58:01/81:01-associated Gag escape mutations previously shown to incur a fitness cost on the virus (P = 0.004), a difference between the two cohorts that remained statistically significant even in subjects not expressing these protective alleles (P = 0.01). These data suggest that viral set points and disease progression rates at the population level may be significantly influenced by the prevalence of protective HLA alleles such as HLA-B*27/57/58:01/81:01 and that CD4 count-based guidelines to initiate antiretroviral therapy may need to be modified accordingly, to optimize the effectiveness of treatment-for-prevention strategies and reduce HIV transmission rates to the absolute minimum.

IMPORTANCE Immune control of HIV at an individual level is strongly influenced by the HLA class I genotype. HLA class I molecules mediating effective immune control, such as HLA-B*27 and HLA-B*57, are associated with the selection of escape mutants that reduce viral replicative capacity. The escape mutants selected in infected patients can be transmitted and affect the viral load and CD4 count in the recipient. These findings prompt the hypothesis that the frequency of protective alleles in a population may affect viral set points and rates of disease progression in that population. These studies in Mexico and Barbados, where the prevalence rates of protective HLA alleles are 8% and 34%, respectively, support this hypothesis. These data suggest that antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment-for-prevention strategies will be less successful in populations such as those in Mexico, where viral loads are higher for a given CD4 count. Consideration may therefore usefully be given to ART initiation at higher absolute CD4 counts in such populations to optimize the impact of ART for prevention.

An HIV epidemic model based on viral load dynamics: value in assessing empirical trends in HIV virulence and community viral load

Trends in HIV virulence have been monitored since the start of the AIDS pandemic, as studying HIV virulence informs our understanding of HIV epidemiology and pathogenesis. Here, we model changes in HIV virulence as a strictly evolutionary process, using set point viral load (SPVL) as a proxy, to make inferences about empirical SPVL trends from longitudinal HIV cohorts. We develop an agent-based epidemic model based on HIV viral load dynamics. The model contains functions for viral load and transmission, SPVL and disease progression, viral load trajectories in multiple stages of infection, and the heritability of SPVL across transmissions. We find that HIV virulence evolves to an intermediate level that balances infectiousness with longer infected lifespans, resulting in an optimal SPVL∼4.75 log10 viral RNA copies/mL. Adaptive viral evolution may explain observed HIV virulence trends: our model produces SPVL trends with magnitudes that are broadly similar to empirical trends. With regard to variation among studies in empirical SPVL trends, results from our model suggest that variation may be explained by the specific epidemic context, e.g. the mean SPVL of the founding lineage or the age of the epidemic; or improvements in HIV screening and diagnosis that results in sampling biases. We also use our model to examine trends in community viral load, a population-level measure of HIV viral load that is thought to reflect a population's overall transmission potential. We find that community viral load evolves in association with SPVL, in the absence of prevention programs such as antiretroviral therapy, and that the mean community viral load is not necessarily a strong predictor of HIV incidence.

The contribution of viral genotype to plasma viral set-point in HIV infection

Disease progression in HIV-infected individuals varies greatly, and while the environmental and host factors influencing this variation have been widely investigated, the viral contribution to variation in set-point viral load, a predictor of disease progression, is less clear. Previous studies, using transmission-pairs and analysis of phylogenetic signal in small numbers of individuals, have produced a wide range of viral genetic effect estimates. Here we present a novel application of a population-scale method based in quantitative genetics to estimate the viral genetic effect on set-point viral load in the UK subtype B HIV-1 epidemic, based on a very large data set. Analyzing the initial viral load and associated pol sequence, both taken before anti-retroviral therapy, of 8,483 patients, we estimate the proportion of variance in viral load explained by viral genetic effects to be 5.7% (CI 2.8-8.6%). We also estimated the change in viral load over time due to selection on the virus and environmental effects to be a decline of 0.05 log10 copies/mL/year, in contrast to recent studies which suggested a reported small increase in viral load over the last 20 years might be due to evolutionary changes in the virus. Our results suggest that in the UK epidemic, subtype B has a small but significant viral genetic effect on viral load. By allowing the analysis of large sample sizes, we expect our approach to be applicable to the estimation of the genetic contribution to traits in many organisms.

Evidence that hepatitis C virus genome partly controls infection outcome

Infection by hepatitis C virus (HCV) leads to one of two outcomes; either the infection resolves within approximately 6 months or the virus can persist indefinitely. Host genetics are known to affect the likelihood of clearance or persistence. By contrast, the importance of the virus genotype in determining infection outcome is unknown, as quantifying this effect traditionally requires well-characterized transmission networks, which are rare. Extending phylogenetic approaches previously developed to estimate the virus control over set-point viral load in HIV-1 infections, we simulate inheritance of a binary trait along a phylogenetic tree, use this data to quantify how infection outcomes cluster and ascertain the effect of virus genotype on these. We apply our method to the Hepatitis C Incidence and Transmission Study in prisons (HITS-p) data set from Australia, as this cohort prospectively identified incident cases including viraemic subjects who ultimately clear the virus, thus providing us with a unique collection of sequences from clearing infections. We detect significant correlations between infection outcome and virus distance in the phylogeny for viruses of Genotype 1, with estimates lying at around 67%. No statistically significant estimates were obtained for viruses of Genotype 3a.

Virulence and pathogenesis of HIV-1 infection: an evolutionary perspective

Why some individuals develop AIDS rapidly whereas others remain healthy without treatment for many years remains a central question of HIV research. An evolutionary perspective reveals an apparent conflict between two levels of selection on the virus. On the one hand, there is rapid evolution of the virus in the host, and on the other, new observations indicate the existence of virus factors that affect the virulence of infection whose influence persists over years in infected individuals and across transmission events. Here, we review recent evidence that shows that viral genetic factors play a larger role in modulating disease severity than anticipated. We propose conceptual models that reconcile adaptive evolution at both levels of selection. Evolutionary analysis provides new insight into HIV pathogenesis.

The natural history of HIV infection

Purpose of review

To review recent published literature around three areas: long-term nonprogression/viral control; predictors of viral load set point/disease progression; and the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in early HIV infection.

Recent findings

The natural course of untreated HIV infection varies widely with some HIV-positive individuals able to maintain high CD4 cell counts and/or suppressed viral load in the absence of ART. Although similar, the underlying mechanistic processes leading to long-term nonprogression and viral control are likely to differ. Concerted ongoing research efforts will hopefully identify host factors that are causally related to these phenotypes, thus providing opportunities for the development of novel treatment or preventive strategies. Although there is increasing evidence that initiation of ART during primary infection may prevent the immunological deterioration which would otherwise be seen in untreated HIV infection, recent studies do not address the longer term clinical benefits of ART at this very early stage.

Summary

A better understanding of the relative influences of viral, host, and environmental factors on the natural course of HIV infection has the potential to identify novel targets for intervention to prevent and treat HIV-infected persons.

A case cluster demonstrating the relationship between HLA concordance and virologic and disease outcomes in human immunodeficiency virus infection

We present a detailed analysis of sexual HIV transmission from one source partner to two recipients. The HLA haplotypes between the source partner and one recipient were very similar with 7 out of 8 HLA alleles from four loci (HLA A, B, C and DRB) shared, while the other recipient shared only one allele. The immunologic outcomes between the two recipients differed dramatically, despite the absence of apparent virologic differences in their inoculums. We suggest that non-viral factors, which might be related to differences in the HLA profile, played a role in determining different CD4+ T-cells dynamics for these two recipients.

Is HIV short-sighted? Insights from a multistrain nested model

An important component of pathogen evolution at the population level is evolution within hosts. Unless evolution within hosts is very slow compared to the duration of infection, the composition of pathogen genotypes within a host is likely to change during the course of an infection, thus altering the composition of genotypes available for transmission as infection progresses. We develop a nested modeling approach that allows us to follow the evolution of pathogens at the epidemiological level by explicitly considering within-host evolutionary dynamics of multiple competing strains and the timing of transmission. We use the framework to investigate the impact of short-sighted within-host evolution on the evolution of virulence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and find that the topology of the within-host adaptive landscape determines how virulence evolves at the epidemiological level. If viral reproduction rates increase significantly during the course of infection, the viral population will evolve a high level of virulence even though this will reduce the transmission potential of the virus. However, if reproduction rates increase more modestly, as data suggest, our model predicts that HIV virulence will be only marginally higher than the level that maximizes the transmission potential of the virus.

How effectively can HIV phylogenies be used to measure heritability?

Background and objectives: The severity of HIV-1 infection, measured by set-point viral load (SPVL), is highly variable between individuals. Its heritability between infections quantifies the control the pathogen genotype has over disease severity. Heritability estimates vary widely between studies, but differences in methods make comparison difficult. Phylogenetic comparative analysis offers measures of phylogenetic signal, but it is unclear how to interpret them in terms of the fraction of variance in SPVL controlled by the virus genotype.

Methodology: We present computational methods which link statistics summarizing phylogenetic signal to heritability, h² in order to test for and quantify it. We re-analyse data from Switzerland and Uganda, and apply it to new data from the Netherlands. We systematically compare established and new (e.g. phylogenetic pairs, PP) phylogenetic signal statistics.

Results: Heritability estimates varied by method and dataset. Several methods were consistently able to detect simulated heritability above , but none below. Pagel’s λ was the most robust and sensitive. The PP method found no heritability in the Netherlands data, whereas Pagel’s λ found significant heritability only in a narrow subdivision (P =0.038). Heritability was estimated at h²=0.52 (95% confidence interval 0.00–0.63).

Conclusions and implications: This standardized measure, h², allows comparability of heritability between cohorts. We confirm high heritability in Swiss data, but neither in Ugandan data nor in the Netherlands, where it is barely significant or undetectable. Existing phylogenetic methods are ill-suited for detecting heritability below , which may nonetheless be biologically important.

EVOLUTION OF PATIENTS WITH AIDS AFTER cART: CLINICAL AND LABORATORY EVOLUTION OF PATIENTS WITH AIDS AFTER 48 WEEKS OF ANTIRETROVIRAL TREATMENT

SUMMARY Combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) aims to inhibit viral replication, delay immunodeficiency progression and improve survival in AIDS patients. The objective of this study was to compare two different schemes of cART, based on plasma viral load (VL) and CD4+ T lymphocyte count, during 48 weeks of treatment. For this purpose, 472 medical charts of a Specialized Outpatient Service were reviewed from 1998 to 2005. Out of these, 58 AIDS patients who had received a triple drug scheme as the initial treatment were included in the study and two groups were formed: Group 1 (G1): 47 individuals treated with two nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) and one non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor; Group 2 (G2): 11 patients treated with two NRTI and one protease inhibitor. In G1 and G2, 53.2% and 81.8% respectively were patients with an AIDS-defining disease. The T CD4+ lymphocyte count increased progressively up until the 24th week of treatment in all patients, while VL became undetectable in 68.1% of G1 and in 63.6% of G2. The study concluded that the evolutions of laboratory tests were similar in the two treatment groups and that both presented a favorable clinical evolution.

Has the rate of CD4 cell count decline before initiation of antiretroviral therapy changed over the course of the Dutch HIV epidemic among MSM?

Introduction

Studies suggest that the HIV-1 epidemic in the Netherlands may have become more virulent, leading to faster disease progression if untreated. Analysis of CD4 cell count decline before antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, a surrogate marker for disease progression, may be hampered by informative censoring as ART initiation is more likely with a steeper CD4 cell count decline.

Methods

Development of CD4 cell count from 9 to 48 months after seroconversion was analyzed using a mixed-effects model and 2 models that jointly modeled CD4 cell counts and time to censoring event (start ART, <100 CD4 cells/mm³, or AIDS) among therapy-naïve MSM HIV-1 seroconverters in the Netherlands. These models make different assumptions about the censoring process.

Results

All 3 models estimated lower median CD4 cell counts 9 months after seroconversion in later calendar years (623, 582, and 541 cells/mm³ for 1984–1995 [n = 111], 1996–2002 [n = 139], and 2003–2007 seroconverters [n = 356], respectively, shared-parameter model). Only the 2 joint-models found a trend for a steeper decline of CD4 cell counts with seroconversion in later calendar years (overall p-values 0.002 and 0.06 for the pattern-mixture and the shared-parameter model, respectively). In the shared-parameter model the median decline from 9 to 48 months was 276 cellsmm³ for 1984–1995 seroconverters and 308 cells/mm³ for 2003–2007 seroconverters (difference in slope, p = 0.045).

Conclusion

Mixed-effects models underestimate the CD4 cell decline prior to starting ART. Joint-models suggest that CD4 cell count declines more rapidly in patients infected between 2003 and 2007 compared to patients infected before 1996.

Accessory genes confer a high replication rate to virulent feline immunodeficiency virus

Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) is a lentivirus that causes AIDS in domestic cats, similar to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS in humans. The FIV accessory protein Vif abrogates the inhibition of infection by cat APOBEC3 restriction factors. FIV also encodes a multifunctional OrfA accessory protein that has characteristics similar to HIV Tat, Vpu, Vpr, and Nef. To examine the role of vif and orfA accessory genes in FIV replication and pathogenicity, we generated chimeras between two FIV molecular clones with divergent disease potentials: a highly pathogenic isolate that replicates rapidly in vitro and is associated with significant immunopathology in vivo, FIV-C36 (referred to here as high-virulence FIV [HV-FIV]), and a less-pathogenic strain, FIV-PPR (referred to here as low-virulence FIV [LV-FIV]). Using PCR-driven overlap extension, we produced viruses in which vif, orfA, or both genes from virulent HV-FIV replaced equivalent genes in LV-FIV. The generation of these chimeras is more straightforward in FIV than in primate lentiviruses, since FIV accessory gene open reading frames have very little overlap with other genes. All three chimeric viruses exhibited increased replication kinetics in vitro compared to the replication kinetics of LV-FIV. Chimeras containing HV-Vif or Vif/OrfA had replication rates equivalent to those of the virulent HV-FIV parental virus. Furthermore, small interfering RNA knockdown of feline APOBEC3 genes resulted in equalization of replication rates between LV-FIV and LV-FIV encoding HV-FIV Vif. These findings demonstrate that Vif-APOBEC interactions play a key role in controlling the replication and pathogenicity of this immunodeficiency-inducing virus in its native host species and that accessory genes act as mediators of lentiviral strain-specific virulence.

Rapid, complex adaptation of transmitted HIV-1 full-length genomes in subtype C-infected individuals with differing disease progression

OBJECTIVE(S)

There is limited information on full-length genome sequences and the early evolution of transmitted HIV-1 subtype C viruses, which constitute the majority of viruses spread in Africa. The purpose of this study was to characterize the earliest changes across the genome of subtype C viruses following transmission, to better understand early control of viremia.

DESIGN

We derived the near full-length genome sequence responsible for clinical infection from five HIV subtype C-infected individuals with different disease progression profiles and tracked adaptation to immune responses in the first 6 months of infection.

METHODS

Near full-length genomes were generated by single genome amplification and direct sequencing. Sequences were analyzed for amino acid mutations associated with cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) or antibody-mediated immune pressure, and for reversion.

RESULTS

Fifty-five sequence changes associated with adaptation to the new host were identified, with 38% attributed to CTL pressure, 35% to antibody pressure, 16% to reversions and the remainder were unclassified. Mutations in CTL epitopes were most frequent in the first 5 weeks of infection, with the frequency declining over time with the decline in viral load. CTL escape predominantly occurred in nef, followed by pol and env. Shuffling/toggling of mutations was identified in 81% of CTL epitopes, with only 7% reaching fixation within the 6-month period.

CONCLUSION

There was rapid virus adaptation following transmission, predominantly driven by CTL pressure, with most changes occurring during high viremia. Rapid escape and complex escape pathways provide further challenges for vaccine protection.

Diversity of trends of viremia and T-cell markers in experimental acute feline immunodeficiency virus infection

OBJECTIVE

The early events of human immunodeficiency virus infection seem critical for progression toward disease and antiretroviral therapy initiation. We wanted to clarify some still unknown prognostic relationships between inoculum size and changes in various immunological and virological markers. Feline immunodeficiency virus infection could be a helpful model.

METHODS

Viremia and T-cell markers (number of CD4, CD8, CD8β(low)CD62L(neg) T-cells, CD4/CD8 ratio, and percentage of CD8β(low)CD62L(neg) cells among CD8 T-cells) were measured over 12 weeks in 102 cats infected with different feline immunodeficiency virus strains and doses. Viremia and T-cell markers trajectory groups were determined and the dose-response relationships between inoculum titres and trajectory groups investigated.

RESULTS

Cats given the same inoculum showed different patterns of changes in viremia and T-cell markers. A statistically significant positive dose-response relationship was observed between inoculum titre and i) viremia trajectory-groups (r = 0.80, p<0.01), ii) CD8β(low)CD62L(neg) cell-fraction trajectory-groups (r = 0.56, p<0.01). Significant correlations were also found between viremia and the CD4/CD8 ratio and between seven out of ten T-cell markers.

CONCLUSIONS

In cats, the infectious dose determines early kinetics of viremia and initial CD8+ T-cell activation. An expansion of the CD8β(low)CD62L(neg) T-cells might be an early predictor of progression toward disease. The same might be expected in humans but needs confirmation.

Partner characteristics predicting HIV-1 set point in sexually acquired HIV-1 among African seroconverters

Plasma HIV-1 RNA set point is an important predictor of HIV-1 disease progression. We hypothesized that inoculum size and HIV-1 exposure prior to HIV-1 transmission may modulate set point. We evaluated predictors of set point among 141 African HIV-1 seroconverters and their HIV-1-infected study partners. We compared characteristics of seroconverters and their HIV-1-infected partners and HIV-1 set point. Data were from a clinical trial of genital HSV-2 suppression with acyclovir to reduce HIV-1 transmission in HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with HIV-1 transmission linkage assigned through virus sequencing. Our analysis includes data from all transmissions including those with transmission linkage to the HIV-1-infected "source partner" and those that were not linked to their HIV-1-infected study partner. In multivariable analysis, higher plasma HIV-1 in source partners was associated with higher seroconverter set point ( + 0.44 log10 copies/ml per log(10) source partner plasma HIV-1, p < 0.001). In addition, bacterial vaginosis (BV) among female source partners near the time of infection was associated with higher set point in their male seroconverters ( + 0.49 log(10), p = 0.04). Source partner characteristics associated with lower set point included male circumcision ( - 0.63 log(10), p = 0.03) and assignment to acyclovir ( - 0.44 log10, p = 0.02). The proportion of variation in set point explained by plasma HIV-1 RNA of the source partner, after controlling for other factors, was 0.06. Source partner plasma HIV-1 level is the most significant predictor of seroconverter set point, possibly reflecting characteristics of the transmitted virus. Acyclovir use, BV among women source partners, and circumcision among male source partners may alter the set point by affecting transmitted virus inoculum in the source partners' genital compartment.

Cumulative impact of host and viral factors on HIV-1 viral-load control during early infection

In HIV-1 infection, the early set-point viral load strongly predicts both viral transmission and disease progression. The factors responsible for the wide spectrum of set-point viral loads are complex and likely reflect an interplay between the transmitted virus and genetically defined factors in both the transmitting source partner and the seroconverter. Indeed, analysis of 195 transmission pairs from Lusaka, Zambia, revealed that the viral loads in transmitting source partners contributed only ∼2% of the variance in early set-point viral loads of seroconverters (P = 0.046 by univariable analysis). In multivariable models, early set-point viral loads in seroconverting partners were a complex function of (i) the viral load in the source partner, (ii) the gender of the seroconverter, (iii) specific HLA class I alleles in the newly infected partner, and (iv) sharing of HLA-I alleles between partners in a transmission pair. Each of these factors significantly and independently contributed to the set-point viral load in the newly infected partner, accounting for up to 37% of the variance observed and suggesting that many factors operate in concert to define the early virological phenotype in HIV-1 infection.

Vertical T cell immunodominance and epitope entropy determine HIV-1 escape

HIV-1 accumulates mutations in and around reactive epitopes to escape recognition and killing by CD8+ T cells. Measurements of HIV-1 time to escape should therefore provide information on which parameters are most important for T cell-mediated in vivo control of HIV-1. Primary HIV-1-specific T cell responses were fully mapped in 17 individuals, and the time to virus escape, which ranged from days to years, was measured for each epitope. While higher magnitude of an individual T cell response was associated with more rapid escape, the most significant T cell measure was its relative immunodominance measured in acute infection. This identified subject-level or "vertical" immunodominance as the primary determinant of in vivo CD8+ T cell pressure in HIV-1 infection. Conversely, escape was slowed significantly by lower population variability, or entropy, of the epitope targeted. Immunodominance and epitope entropy combined to explain half of all the variability in time to escape. These data explain how CD8+ T cells can exert significant and sustained HIV-1 pressure even when escape is very slow and that within an individual, the impacts of other T cell factors on HIV-1 escape should be considered in the context of immunodominance.

Role of transmitted Gag CTL polymorphisms in defining replicative capacity and early HIV-1 pathogenesis

Initial studies of 88 transmission pairs in the Zambia Emory HIV Research Project cohort demonstrated that the number of transmitted HLA-B associated polymorphisms in Gag, but not Nef, was negatively correlated to set point viral load (VL) in the newly infected partners. These results suggested that accumulation of CTL escape mutations in Gag might attenuate viral replication and provide a clinical benefit during early stages of infection. Using a novel approach, we have cloned gag sequences isolated from the earliest seroconversion plasma sample from the acutely infected recipient of 149 epidemiologically linked Zambian transmission pairs into a primary isolate, subtype C proviral vector, MJ4. We determined the replicative capacity (RC) of these Gag-MJ4 chimeras by infecting the GXR25 cell line and quantifying virion production in supernatants via a radiolabeled reverse transcriptase assay. We observed a statistically significant positive correlation between RC conferred by the transmitted Gag sequence and set point VL in newly infected individuals (p = 0.02). Furthermore, the RC of Gag-MJ4 chimeras also correlated with the VL of chronically infected donors near the estimated date of infection (p = 0.01), demonstrating that virus replication contributes to VL in both acute and chronic infection. These studies also allowed for the elucidation of novel sites in Gag associated with changes in RC, where rare mutations had the greatest effect on fitness. Although we observed both advantageous and deleterious rare mutations, the latter could point to vulnerable targets in the HIV-1 genome. Importantly, RC correlated significantly (p = 0.029) with the rate of CD4+ T cell decline over the first 3 years of infection in a manner that is partially independent of VL, suggesting that the replication capacity of HIV-1 during the earliest stages of infection is a determinant of pathogenesis beyond what might be expected based on set point VL alone.

In the majority of HIV-1 cases, a single virus establishes infection. However, mutations in the viral genome accumulate over time in order to avoid recognition by the host immune response. Certain mutations in the main structural protein, Gag, driven by cytotoxic T lymphocytes are detrimental to viral replication, and we showed previously that, upon transmission, viruses with higher numbers of escape mutations in Gag were associated with lower early set point viral loads. We hypothesized that this could be attributed to attenuation of the transmitted virus. Here, we have cloned the gag gene from 149 newly infected individuals from linked transmission pairs into a clade C proviral vector and determined the replicative capacity in vitro. We found that the replicative capacity conferred by the transmitted Gag correlated with set point viral loads in newly infected individuals, as well as with the viral load of the transmitting partner, and we identified previously unrecognized residues associated with increasing and decreasing replicative capacity. Importantly, we demonstrate that transmitted viruses with high replicative capacity cause more rapid CD4+ decline over the first three years, independent of viral load. This suggests that the trajectory of pathogenesis may be affected very early in infection, before adaptive immunity can respond.

Variable effect of co-infection on the HIV infectivity: within-host dynamics and epidemiological significance

Background

Recent studies have implicated viral characteristics in accounting for the variation in the HIV set-point viral load (spVL) observed among individuals. These studies have suggested that the spVL might be a heritable factor. The spVL, however, is not in an absolute equilibrium state; it is frequently perturbed by immune activations generated by co-infections, resulting in a significant amplification of the HIV viral load (VL). Here, we postulated that if the HIV replication capacity were an important determinant of the spVL, it would also determine the effect of co-infection on the VL. Then, we hypothesized that viral factors contribute to the variation of the effect of co-infection and introduce variation among individuals.

Methods

We developed a within-host deterministic differential equation model to describe the dynamics of HIV and malaria infections, and evaluated the effect of variations in the viral replicative capacity on the VL burden generated by co-infection. These variations were then evaluated at population level by implementing a between-host model in which the relationship between VL and the probability of HIV transmission per sexual contact was used as the within-host and between-host interface.

Results

Our within-host results indicated that the combination of parameters generating low spVL were unable to produce a substantial increase in the VL in response to co-infection. Conversely, larger spVL were associated with substantially larger increments in the VL. In accordance, the between-host model indicated that co-infection had a negligible impact in populations where the virus had low replicative capacity, reflected in low spVL. Similarly, the impact of co-infection increased as the spVL of the population increased.

Conclusion

Our results indicated that variations in the viral replicative capacity would influence the effect of co-infection on the VL. Therefore, viral factors could play an important role driving several virus-related processes such as the increment of the VL induced by co-infections. These results raise the possibility that biological differences could alter the effect of co-infection and underscore the importance of identifying these factors for the implementation of control interventions focused on co-infection.

Is the virulence of HIV changing? A meta-analysis of trends in prognostic markers of HIV disease progression and transmission

OBJECTIVE

The potential for changing HIV-1 virulence has significant implications for the AIDS epidemic, including changing HIV transmission rates, rapidity of disease progression, and timing of ART. Published data to date have provided conflicting results.

DESIGN

We conducted a meta-analysis of changes in baseline CD4(+) T-cell counts and set point plasma viral RNA load over time in order to establish whether summary trends are consistent with changing HIV-1 virulence.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for studies of trends in HIV-1 prognostic markers of disease progression and supplemented findings with publications referenced in epidemiological or virulence studies. We identified 12 studies of trends in baseline CD4(+) T-cell counts (21, 052 total individuals), and eight studies of trends in set point viral loads (10 ,785 total individuals), spanning the years 1984-2010. Using random-effects meta-analysis, we estimated summary effect sizes for trends in HIV-1 plasma viral loads and CD4(+) T-cell counts.

RESULTS

Baseline CD4(+) T-cell counts showed a summary trend of decreasing cell counts [effect = -4.93  cells/μl per year, 95% confidence interval (CI) -6.53 to -3.3]. Set point viral loads showed a summary trend of increasing plasma viral RNA loads (effect = 0.013  log(10)  copies/ml per year, 95% CI -0.001 to 0.03). The trend rates decelerated in recent years for both prognostic markers.

CONCLUSION

Our results are consistent with increased virulence of HIV-1 over the course of the epidemic. Extrapolating over the 30 years since the first description of AIDS, this represents a CD4(+) T cells loss of approximately 148  cells/μl and a gain of 0.39  log(10)  copies/ml of viral RNA measured during early infection. These effect sizes would predict increasing rates of disease progression, and need for ART as well as increasing transmission risk.

Assessing predicted HIV-1 replicative capacity in a clinical setting

HIV-1 replicative capacity (RC) provides a measure of within-host fitness and is determined in the context of phenotypic drug resistance testing. However it is unclear how these in-vitro measurements relate to in-vivo processes. Here we assess RCs in a clinical setting by combining a previously published machine-learning tool, which predicts RC values from partial pol sequences with genotypic and clinical data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The machine-learning tool is based on a training set consisting of 65000 RC measurements paired with their corresponding partial pol sequences. We find that predicted RC values (pRCs) correlate significantly with the virus load measured in 2073 infected but drug naïve individuals. Furthermore, we find that, for 53 pairs of sequences, each pair sampled in the same infected individual, the pRC was significantly higher for the sequence sampled later in the infection and that the increase in pRC was also significantly correlated with the increase in plasma viral load and with the length of the time-interval between the sampling points. These findings indicate that selection within a patient favors the evolution of higher replicative capacities and that these in-vitro fitness measures are indicative of in-vivo HIV virus load.