; Six Week Extended Dose Nevirapine (SWEN) Study Team. Twelve-month follow-up of Six Week Extended Dose Nevirapine randomized controlled trials: differential impact of extended-dose nevirapine on mother-to-child transmission and infant death by maternal CD4 cell count

Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and HIV-Free Survival in Swaziland: A Community-Based Household Survey

In Swaziland, no data are available on the rates of HIV infection and HIV-free survival among children at the end of the breastfeeding period. We performed a national crosssectional community survey of children born 18-24 months prior to the study, in randomly selected constituencies in all 4 administrative regions of Swaziland, from April to June 2015. Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV and HIV-free survival rates were calculated for all HIV-exposed children. The overall HIV-free survival rate at 18-24 months was 95.9% (95% CI 94.1-97.2). The estimated proportion of HIV infected children among known HIV-exposed children was 3.6% (95% CI 2.4-5.2). Older maternal age, delivering at a health facility, and receiving antenatal antiretroviral drugs were independently associated with reduced risk for child infection or death. The Swaziland program for prevention of MTCT achieved high HIV-free survival (95.9%) and low MTCT (3.6%) rates at 18-24 months of age when Option A (infant prophylaxis) of the WHO 2010 guidelines was implemented.

What influences feeding decisions for HIV-exposed infants in rural Kenya?

BACKGROUND

Infant feeding in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) poses unique challenges to mothers and healthcare workers in balancing the perceived risks of HIV transmission and nutritional requirements. We aimed to describe the decision-making processes around infant feeding at a rural HIV clinic in Kenya.

METHODS

We used a qualitative study design. Between March and August 2011, we conducted in-depth interviews (n = 9) and focus group discussions (n = 10) with purposively selected hospital and community respondents at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya. These respondents had all experienced of infant feeding in the context of HIV. These interviews were informed by prior structured observations of health care worker interactions with carers during infant feeding counselling sessions.

RESULTS

Overall, women living with HIV found it difficult to adhere to the HIV infant feeding guidance. There were three dominant factors that influenced decision making processes: 1) Exclusive breastfeeding was not the cultural norm, therefore practising it raised questions within the family and community about a mother's parenting capabilities and HIV status. 2) Women living with HIV lacked autonomy in decision-making on infant feeding due to socio-cultural factors. 3) Non-disclosure of HIV status to close members due to the stigma.

CONCLUSION

Infant feeding decision-making by women living with HIV in rural Kenya is constrained by a lack of autonomy, stigma and poverty. There is an urgent need to address these challenges through scaling up psycho-social and gender empowerment strategies for women, and introducing initiatives that promote the integration of HIV infant feeding strategies into other child health services.

Efficacy of Six-Week Extended-Dose Nevirapine Varies by Infant Birth Weight with Greatest Relative Efficacy in Low Birth Weight Infants

Latest World Health Organization guidelines recommend weight-based nevirapine prophylaxis for all HIV-exposed infants in resource-limited settings, yet low birth weight (LBW) infants (< 2500 g) have been understudied. Using data from the NIH-funded India six-week extended-dose nevirapine (SWEN) study, a randomized clinical trial of SWEN versus single-dose nevirapine (SD) for prevention of breast-milk HIV-1 transmission, we examined the relative impact of SWEN among 737 mother-infant pairs stratified by infant birth weight. Birth weight groups were defined as very LBW (VLBW) ≤ 2000 g, moderate LBW (MLBW) >2000 g and ≤ 2500 g, and normal birth weight (NBW) > 2500 g. Outcomes were HIV-1 infection, HIV-1 infection or death by 12 months, and severe adverse events (SAEs). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate probability of efficacy outcomes in birth weight groups, and differential effects of SWEN by birth weight group were examined using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for independent risk factors for HIV maternal-to-child transmission and significant covariates. Among 50 VLBW, 249 MLBW, and 433 NBW infants, 50% were randomized to SWEN; median gestational age was 36, 38 and 38 weeks, respectively; and there was no difference in breastfeeding duration (p = 0.99). Compared to SD: SWEN-treated VLBW had lower estimates of HIV-1 infection (13% vs. 38%, p = 0.004) and HIV-1 infection or death (13% vs. 41%, p = 0.002); SWEN-treated MLBW had lower estimated HIV-1 infection (13% vs. 17%, p = 0.042); and efficacy endpoints were similar by treatment arm in NBW. In multivariate analysis, SWEN was associated with reduced risk of HIV-1 infection or death by 83% (p = 0.03) in VLBW versus 45% (p = 0.05) in MLBW. SAE frequency was similar by treatment arm in VLBW (68% vs. 76%, p = 0.53) and MLBW (37% vs. 36%, p = 0.93). SWEN may safely increase HIV-free survival among HIV-exposed LBW infants with greatest protective advantage among infants ≤ 2000 g.

Frequent nevirapine resistance in infants infected by HIV-1 via breastfeeding while on nevirapine prophylaxis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to assess nevirapine (NVP) resistance in infants who became infected in the three arms of the Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals and Nutrition (BAN) study: daily infant NVP prophylaxis, triple maternal antiretrovirals or no extra intervention for 28 weeks of breastfeeding.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

METHODS

The latest available plasma or dried blood spot specimen was tested from infants who became HIV-positive between 3 and 48 weeks of age. Population sequencing was used to detect mutations associated with reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance. Sequences were obtained from 22 out of 25 transmissions in the infant-NVP arm, 23 out of 30 transmissions in the maternal-antiretroviral arm and 33 out of 38 transmissions in the control arm.

RESULTS

HIV-infected infants in the infant-NVP arm were significantly more likely to have NVP resistance than infected infants in the other two arms of the trial, especially during breastfeeding through 28 weeks of age (56% in infant-NVP arm vs. 6% in maternal-antiretroviral arm and 11% in control arm, P¼0.004). There was a nonsignificant trend, suggesting that infants with NVP resistance tended to be infected earlier and exposed to NVP while infected for a greater duration than infants without resistance.

CONCLUSION

Infants on NVP prophylaxis during breastfeeding are at a reduced risk of acquiring HIV, but are at an increased risk of NVP resistance if they do become infected. These findings point to the need for frequent HIV testing of infants while on NVP prophylaxis, and for the availability of antiretroviral regimens excluding NVP for treating infants who become infected while on such a prophylactic regimen.

Soluble CD14: An Independent Biomarker for the Risk of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV in a Setting of Preexposure and Postexposure Antiretroviral Prophylaxis

Elevated soluble CD14 (sCD14) concentrations, a marker of monocyte activation, predicts adverse outcomes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults. To examine the association of sCD14 concentrations with the risk of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV, we nested a case-control study (49 pairs of infants and their HIV-infected mothers) within the Six-Week Extended-Dose Nevirapine trial. Median peripartum maternal log2 sCD14 concentration was higher among transmitters (defined as pairs in which maternally transmitted HIV infection occurred by 12 months of age) than nontransmitters (20.29 pg/mL vs 19.41 pg/mL; P = .005). There was an increased odds of MTCT for every log2 increase in maternal sCD14 concentration, after adjustment for maternal HIV load, CD4 count and cART exposure (adjusted odds ratio, 3.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-10.21). Maternal monocyte activation may adversely influence the risk of MTCT of HIV.

Antiretroviral interventions for preventing breast milk transmission of HIV

BACKGROUND

An estimated 260,000 children under the age of 15 years acquired HIV infection in 2012. As much as 42% of mother-to-child transmission is related to breastfeeding. Antiretroviral prophylaxis for mothers or infants has the potential to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV through breast milk.

OBJECTIVES

To determine which antiretroviral prophylactic regimens are efficacious and safe for reducing mother-to-child transmission of HIV through breastfeeding and thereby avert child morbidity and mortality.

SEARCH METHODS

Using Cochrane Collaboration search methods in conjunction with appropriate search terms, we identified relevant studies from January 1, 1994 to January 14, 2014 by searching databases including Cochrane CENTRAL, EMBASE and PubMed, LILACS, and Web of Science/Web of Social Science.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials in which HIV-infected mothers breastfed their infants, and in which the mothers used antiretroviral prophylaxis while breastfeeding their children or their children received antiretroviral prophylaxis for at least four weeks while breastfeeding, were included.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Abstracts of all trials identified were examined independently by two authors. We identified 15,922 references and examined 81 in detail. Data were abstracted independently using a standardized form.

MAIN RESULTS

Seven RCTs were included in the review.One trial compared triple antiretroviral prophylaxis during pregnancy and breastfeeding with short antiretroviral prophylaxis to given to the mother to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV. At 12 months, the risks of HIV transmission, and of HIV transmission or death, were lower, but there was no difference in infant mortality alone in the triple arm versus the short arm. Using the GRADE methodology, evidence quality for outcomes in this trial was generally low to moderate.One trial compared six months of breastfeeding using zidovudine, lamivudine, and lopinavir/ritonavir versus zidovudine, lamivudine, and abacavir from 26-34 weeks gestation. At six months, there was no difference in risk of infant HIV infection, infant death, or infant HIV infection or death between the two groups. Evidence quality for outcomes in this trial was generally very low to low.One trial of single dose nevirapine versus six weeks of infant zidovudine found the risk of HIV infection at 12 weeks to be greater in the zidovudine arm than in the single dose nevirapine arm. Evidence quality for outcomes in this trial was generally very low.One multi-country trial compared single dose nevirapine and six weeks of infant nevirapine. After 12 months, infants in the extended nevirapine group had a lower risk of infant mortality compared with the control. There was no difference in the risk of HIV infection or death or in HIV transmission alone in the extended nevirapine group compared with the control. Evidence quality for outcomes in this trial was generally low to moderate.One trial compared single dose nevirapine plus one week zidovudine; the control regimen plus nevirapine up to 14 weeks; or the control regimen with dual prophylaxis up to 14 weeks. At 24 months, the extended nevirapine regimen group had a lower risk of HIV transmission and of HIV transmission or death vs. the control. There was no difference in infant mortality alone. Compared with controls, the dual prophylaxis group had a lower risk of HIV transmission and of HIV transmission or death, but no difference in infant mortality alone. There was no difference in these outcomes between the two intervention arms. Evidence quality for outcomes in this trial was generally moderate to high.One trial compared six weeks of nevirapine with six months of nevirapine. Among infants of mothers not using highly active antiretroviral therapy, there was no difference in risk of HIV infection among the six month nevirapine group versus the six week nevirapine group. Evidence quality for outcomes in this trial was generally low to moderate.One trial compared a maternal triple-drug antiretroviral regimen, infant nevirapine, or neither intervention. Infants in the maternal prophylaxis arm were at lower risk for HIV, and HIV infection or death when compared with the control group. There was no difference in the risk of infant mortality alone. Infants with extended prophylaxis had a lower risk of HIV infection and of HIV infection or death versus the control group infants. There was no difference in the risk of infant mortality alone in the extended infant nevirapine group versus the control. There was no difference in HIV infection, infant mortality, and HIV infection or death between the maternal and extended infant prophylaxis groups. Evidence quality for outcomes in this trial was generally low to moderate.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Antiretroviral prophylaxis, whether used by the HIV-infected mother or the HIV-exposed infant while breastfeeding, is efficacious in preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Further research is needed regarding maternal resistance and response to subsequent antiretroviral therapy after maternal prophylaxis. An ongoing trial (IMPAACT 1077BF) compares the efficacy and safety of maternal triple antiretroviral prophylaxis versus daily infant nevirapine for prevention of mother-to-child transmission through breastfeeding.

Antiretroviral drug regimens to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a review of scientific, program, and policy advances for sub-Saharan Africa

Considerable advances have been made in the effort to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) in sub-Saharan Africa. Clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of antiretroviral regimens to interrupt HIV transmission through the antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal periods. Scientific discoveries have been rapidly translated into health policy, bolstered by substantial investment in health infrastructure capable of delivering increasingly complex services. A new scientific agenda is also emerging, one that is focused on the challenges of effective and sustainable program implementation. Finally, global campaigns to "virtually eliminate" pediatric HIV and dramatically reduce HIV-related maternal mortality have mobilized new resources and renewed political will. Each of these developments marks a major step in regional PMTCT efforts; their convergence signals a time of rapid progress in the field, characterized by an increased interdependency between clinical research, program implementation, and policy. In this review, we take stock of recent advances across each of these areas, highlighting the challenges--and opportunities--of improving health services for HIV-infected mothers and their children across the region.

35th Annual Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society Awards

The following is a compilation of the 2013 Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society Awards presented on Monday, May 6, 2013 during the Pediatric Academic Societies meeting in Washington, DC. Award summaries were adapted from submissions provided by the nominating physician.

HIV transmission and 24-month survival in a randomized trial of HAART to prevent MTCT during pregnancy and breastfeeding in Botswana

OBJECTIVES

HAART for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) may impact long-term survival of women and children.

DESIGN

Randomized clinical trial.

METHODS

HIV-infected pregnant women with CD4+ cell count at least 200 cells/µl were randomly assigned to abacavir, zidovudine, lamivudine (arm A) or lopinavir–ritonavir, zidovudine–lamivudine (arm B) from week 26 to 34 gestation through planned weaning by 6 months postpartum. Women with baseline CD4+ cell count less than 200 cells/µl received nevirapine–zidovudine–lamivudine indefinitely (Obs arm), as did randomized women later qualifying for treatment.

RESULTS

Among 560 randomized and 170 observational women enrolled, there were 14 deaths (1.9%) – one antenatally (Obs), three from delivery to 6 months postpartum (1 arm A, 2 Obs), and 10 from 6 to 24 months postpartum (5 arm A, 3 arm B, 2 Obs). Time to death or CD4+ cell count below 200 cells/µl was shorter in arm A vs. B (P = 0.03). Of the 709 live-born children, 97% breastfed for a median of 5.8 months. Of 37 (5.2%) deaths by 24 months, nine were before breastfeeding initiated (3 arm A, 2 arm B, 4 Obs); six while breastfeeding (1 arm A, 2 arm B, 3 Obs); and 22 after weaning (9 arm A, 11 arm B, 2 Obs). Only eight children (1.1%) were HIV-infected at 24 months (6 arm A, 1 arm B, 1 Obs), all before 6 months.

CONCLUSION

Low MTCT was maintained through extended follow-up in all arms. Disease progression appeared slower after discontinuing protease inhibitor-based HAART, but a concerning number of maternal deaths occurred after stopping either regimen. Strategies to improve maternal and child survival in the postintervention period are required.

Infant feeding buddies: a strategy to support safe infant feeding for HIV-positive mothers

BACKGROUND

Prior to 2010, the World Health Organization recommended that HIV-positive mothers exclusively breastfeed for the first 6 months of life unless replacement feeding was acceptable, feasible, affordable, sustainable, and safe. Community pressure to practice mixed feeding, lack of knowledge on safe feeding, and shame regarding HIV status discourage mothers from breastfeeding exclusively and contribute to South Africa's low exclusive breastfeeding prevalence of 7% for infants under 6 months.

OBJECTIVE

This pilot study explored the feasibility of implementing a feeding buddy system to provide a mother with support to achieve her infant feeding goal.

METHODS

A convenience sample of 14 HIV-positive mothers and their buddies was recruited from the Butterworth Gateway Clinic in South Africa. HIV-positive mothers selected a buddy who accompanied them on clinic visits and counseling sessions on safe infant feeding. The research team conducted in-depth interviews to gather qualitative information on participants' experiences at 3 points in time.

RESULTS

Buddy selection was influenced by the mother's relationship to the buddy, trust, and previous disclosure of HIV status. The 3 most cited forms of support were the buddy's accountability, teaching, and help in feeding the infant correctly.

CONCLUSIONS

Buddies were successfully integrated into routine Prevention of Maternal-to-Child Transmission visits. Study participants confirmed that having a buddy was a helpful support for HIV-positive mothers.

The role of co-infections in mother-to-child transmission of HIV

In HIV-infected women, co-infections that target the placenta, fetal membranes, genital tract, and breast tissue, as well as systemic maternal and infant infections, have been shown to increase the risk for mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT). Active co-infection stimulates the release of cytokines and inflammatory agents that enhance HIV replication locally or systemically and increase tissue permeability, which weakens natural defenses to MTCT. Many maternal or infant co-infections can affect MTCT of HIV, and particular ones, such as genital tract infection with herpes simplex virus, or systemic infections such as hepatitis B, can have substantial epidemiologic impact on MTCT. Screening and treatment for co-infections that can make infants susceptible to MTCT in utero, peripartum, or postpartum can help reduce the incidence of HIV infection among infants and improve the health of mothers and infants worldwide.

Pharmacological and clinical evidence of nevirapine immediate- and extended-release formulations

We reviewed the current information available on nevirapine immediate- and extended-release formulations and its role in single-dose and combination antiretroviral therapy. Nevirapine was approved in 1996 and was the first non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor available for the treatment of HIV-1 infection. Nevirapine has demonstrated good efficacy and a well-characterized safety profile. A major drawback is the low genetic barrier, allowing the emergence of resistance in the presence of single mutations in the reverse-transcriptase gene. This shortcoming is particularly relevant when nevirapine is administered in a single dose to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 infection, compromising the efficacy of future non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase-inhibitor regimens. Studies published recently have probed the noninferiority of nevirapine compared to ritonavir-boosted atazanavir with both tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine in antiretroviral treatment-naïve patients. In 2011, a new formulation of nevirapine (nevirapine extended release) that allowed once-daily dosing was approved by the Food and Drug Administration and by the European Medicines Agency. VERxVe, a study comparing nevirapine extended release with nevirapine immediate release in antiretroviral treatment-naïve patients, and TRANxITION, a study carried out in antiretroviral treatment-experienced patients who switched therapy from nevirapine immediate release to nevirapine extended release, provided data on the noninferiority of the new formulation of nevirapine compared with nevirapine immediate release in terms of efficacy and safety. Nevirapine extended release will further increase the durability and persistence of nevirapine-containing antiretroviral therapy, allowing once-daily dosing regimens.

Maternal and infant antiretroviral regimens to prevent postnatal HIV-1 transmission: 48-week follow-up of the BAN randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

In resource-limited settings where no safe alternative to breastfeeding exists, WHO recommends that antiretroviral prophylaxis be given to either HIV-infected mothers or infants throughout breastfeeding. We assessed the effect of 28 weeks of maternal or infant antiretroviral prophylaxis on postnatal HIV infection at 48 weeks.

METHODS

The Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals, and Nutrition (BAN) Study was undertaken in Lilongwe, Malawi, between April 21, 2004, and Jan 28, 2010. 2369 HIV-infected breastfeeding mothers with a CD4 count of 250 cells per μL or more and their newborn babies were randomly assigned with a variable-block design to one of three, 28-week regimens: maternal triple antiretroviral (n=849); daily infant nevirapine (n=852); or control (n=668). Patients and local clinical staff were not masked to treatment allocation, but other study investigators were. All mothers and infants received one dose of nevirapine (mother 200 mg; infant 2 mg/kg) and 7 days of zidovudine (mother 300 mg; infants 2 mg/kg) and lamivudine (mothers 150 mg; infants 4 mg/kg) twice a day. Mothers were advised to wean between 24 weeks and 28 weeks after birth. The primary endpoint was HIV infection by 48 weeks in infants who were not infected at 2 weeks and in all infants randomly assigned with censoring at loss to follow-up. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00164736.

FINDINGS

676 mother-infant pairs completed follow-up to 48 weeks or reached an endpoint in the maternal-antiretroviral group, 680 in the infant-nevirapine group, and 542 in the control group. By 32 weeks post partum, 96% of women in the intervention groups and 88% of those in the control group reported no breastfeeding since their 28-week visit. 30 infants in the maternal-antiretroviral group, 25 in the infant-nevirapine group, and 38 in the control group became HIV infected between 2 weeks and 48 weeks of life; 28 (30%) infections occurred after 28 weeks (nine in maternal-antiretroviral, 13 in infant-nevirapine, and six in control groups). The cumulative risk of HIV-1 transmission by 48 weeks was significantly higher in the control group (7%, 95% CI 5-9) than in the maternal-antiretroviral (4%, 3-6; p=0·0273) or the infant-nevirapine (4%, 2-5; p=0·0027) groups. The rate of serious adverse events in infants was significantly higher during 29-48 weeks than during the intervention phase (1·1 [95% CI 1·0-1·2] vs 0·7 [0·7-0·8] per 100 person-weeks; p<0·0001), with increased risk of diarrhoea, malaria, growth faltering, tuberculosis, and death. Nine women died between 2 weeks and 48 weeks post partum (one in maternal-antiretroviral group, two in infant-nevirapine group, six in control group).

INTERPRETATION

In resource-limited settings where no suitable alternative to breastfeeding is available, antiretroviral prophylaxis given to mothers or infants might decrease HIV transmission. Weaning at 6 months might increase infant morbidity.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Safety and efficacy of HIV hyperimmune globulin for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission in HIV-1-infected pregnant women and their infants in Kampala, Uganda (HIVIGLOB/NVP STUDY)

BACKGROUND

This phase III, randomized, clinical trial compared single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) plus HIV hyperimmune globulin (HIVIGLOB) with sdNVP alone for preventing maternal-to-child transmission of HIV. Primary objectives were to determine rates of HIV infection among infants and to assess the safety of HIVIGLOB in combination with sdNVP in HIV-infected Ugandan pregnant women and their infants.

METHODS

Mother-infant pairs were randomized to receive 200 mg of nevirapine to women in labor and 2 mg/kg NVP to newborns within 72 hours after birth (sdNVP arm) or to receive sdNVP plus a single intravenous 240-mL dose of HIVIGLOB given to women at 36- to 38-week gestation and a single intravenous 24-mL dose to newborns within 18 hours of birth (HIVIGLOB/sdNVP arm). Risk of HIV infection was determined using Kaplan-Meier and risk ratio estimates at birth, 2, 6, 14 weeks, 6, and 12 months of age.

RESULTS

Intent-to-treat analysis included 198 HIVIGLOB/sdNVP and 294 sdNVP mother-infant pairs. At 6 months of age, the primary endpoint, there was no statistically significant difference in HIV transmission in the HIVIGLOB/sdNVP arm vs. the sdNVP arm [18.7% vs. 15.0%; risk ratio = 1.240 (95% confidence interval: 0.833 to 1.846); P = 0.290]. Similarly, the proportion of serious adverse events in the HIVIGLOB/sdNVP and sdNVP arms, respectively, for mothers (18.9% vs. 19.3%; P = 0.91) and infants (62.6% vs. 59.5%; P = 0.51) was not significantly different.

CONCLUSIONS

Giving mother-infant pairs an infusion of peripartum HIV hyperimmune globulin in addition to sdNVP for preventing maternal-to-child transmission was as safe as sdNVP alone but was no more effective than sdNVP alone in preventing HIV transmission.

Quantifying the impact of nevirapine-based prophylaxis strategies to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1: a combined pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic, and viral dynamic analysis to predict clinical outcomes

Single-dose nevirapine (sd-NVP) and extended NVP prophylaxis are widely used in resource-constrained settings to prevent vertical HIV-1 transmission. We assessed the pharmacokinetics of sd-NVP in 62 HIV-1-positive pregnant Ugandan woman and their newborns who were receiving sd-NVP prophylaxis to prevent mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission. Based on these data, we developed a mathematical model system to quantify the impact of different sd-NVP regimens at delivery and of extended infant NVP prophylaxis (6, 14, 21, 26, 52, 78, and 102 weeks) on the 2-year risk of HIV-1 transmission and development of drug resistance in mothers and their breast-fed infants. Pharmacokinetic parameter estimates and model-predicted HIV-1 transmission rates were very consistent with other studies. Predicted 2-year HIV-1 transmission risks were 35.8% without prophylaxis, 31.6% for newborn sd-NVP, 19.1% for maternal sd-NVP, and 19.7% for maternal/newborn sd-NVP. Maternal sd-NVP reduced newborn infection predominately by transplacental exchange, providing protective NVP concentrations to the newborn at delivery, rather than by maternal viral load reduction. Drug resistance was frequently selected in HIV-1-positive mothers after maternal sd-NVP. Extended newborn NVP prophylaxis further decreased HIV-1 transmission risks, but an overall decline in cost-effectiveness for increasing durations of newborn prophylaxis was indicated. The total number of infections with resistant virus in newborns was not increased by extended newborn NVP prophylaxis. The developed mathematical modeling framework successfully predicted the risk of HIV-1 transmission and resistance development and can be adapted to other drugs/drug combinations to a priori assess their potential in reducing vertical HIV-1 transmission and resistance spread.