Time-measured phylogenies of gag, pol and env sequence data reveal the direction and time interval of HIV-1 transmission

Inferring the multiplicity of founder variants initiating HIV-1 infection: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 infections initiated by multiple founder variants are characterised by a higher viral load and a worse clinical prognosis than those initiated with single founder variants, yet little is known about the routes of exposure through which transmission of multiple founder variants is most probable. Here we used individual patient data to calculate the probability of multiple founders stratified by route of HIV exposure and study methodology.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that estimated founder variant multiplicity in HIV-1 infection, searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health databases for papers published between Jan 1, 1990, and Sept 14, 2020. Eligible studies must have reported original estimates of founder variant multiplicity in people with acute or early HIV-1 infections, have clearly detailed the methods used, and reported the route of exposure. Studies were excluded if they reported data concerning people living with HIV-1 who had known or suspected superinfection, who were documented as having received pre-exposure prophylaxis, or if the transmitting partner was known to be receiving antiretroviral treatment. Individual patient data were collated from all studies, with authors contacted if these data were not publicly available. We applied logistic meta-regression to these data to estimate the probability that an HIV infection is initiated by multiple founder variants. We calculated a pooled estimate using a random effects model, subsequently stratifying this estimate across exposure routes in a univariable analysis. We then extended our model to adjust for different study methods in a multivariable analysis, recalculating estimates across the exposure routes. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020202672.

FINDINGS

We included 70 publications in our analysis, comprising 1657 individual patients. Our pooled estimate of the probability that an infection is initiated by multiple founder variants was 0·25 (95% CI 0·21-0·29), with moderate heterogeneity (Q=132·3, p<0·0001, I²=64·2%). Our multivariable analysis uncovered differences in the probability of multiple variant infection by exposure route. Relative to a baseline of male-to-female transmission, the predicted probability for female-to-male multiple variant transmission was significantly lower at 0·13 (95% CI 0·08-0·20), and the probabilities were significantly higher for transmissions in people who inject drugs (0·37 [0·24-0·53]) and men who have sex with men (0·30 [0·33-0·40]). There was no significant difference in the probability of multiple variant transmission between male-to-female transmission (0·21 [0·14-0·31]), post-partum transmission (0·18 [0·03-0·57]), pre-partum transmission (0·17 [0·08-0·33]), and intra-partum transmission (0·27 [0·14-0·45]).

INTERPRETATION

We identified that transmissions in people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men are significantly more likely to result in an infection initiated by multiple founder variants, and female-to-male infections are significantly less probable. Quantifying how the routes of HIV infection affect the transmission of multiple variants allows us to better understand how the evolution and epidemiology of HIV-1 determine clinical outcomes.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council Precision Medicine Doctoral Training Programme and a European Research Council Starting Grant.

Phylogenetic evidence of HIV-1 transmission linkage between two men who have sex with men

Background

In China, an HIV-infected man (complainant; P2) alleged that another man (defendant; P1) had unlawfully infected him with HIV through unprotected homosexual contact in 2018.

Methods

We employed epidemiological, serological and phylogenetic analyses to investigate the transmission linkage between two men who have sex with men (MSM). Partial segments of three HIV-1 gene regions (gag, pol, and env) were amplified and sequenced by cloning. Maximum-likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods were used to determine the direction and estimate the timing of transmission. Local control sequences and database control sequences were also used in the phylogenetic analysis.

Results

It indicated that P2 underwent HIV seroconversion after P1 was diagnosed as HIV positive. The time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) estimates consistently showed that P1 most likely became HIV-1 infected at an earlier date than P2. P1 and P2 were infected with the same HIV-1 CRF01_AE subtype according to segments of all three gene regions (gag, pol, and env). All three genetic regions of P1 have been subject to more potential selective forces than those of P2, indicating a longer evolutionary history. Bayesian and ML trees showed similar paraphyletic-monophyletic topologies of gag and env, with the virus from P1 located at the root, which supported a P1-to-P2 transmission direction.

Conclusions

Phylogenetic investigations can elucidate HIV transmission linkage and might empower its use in the opposition of the intentional transmission of HIV-1 as a forensic tool.

Factors influencing HIV-1 phylogenetic clustering

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

A major goal of public health in relation to HIV/AIDS is to prevent new transmissions in communities. Phylogenetic techniques have improved our understanding of the structure and dynamics of HIV transmissions. However, there is still no consensus about phylogenetic methodology, sampling coverage, gene target and/or minimum fragment size.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several studies use a combined methodology, which includes both a genetic or patristic distance cut-off and a branching support threshold to identify phylogenetic clusters. However, the choice about these thresholds remains an inherently subjective process, which affects the results of these studies. There is still a lack of consensus about the genomic region and the size of fragments that should be used, although there seems to be emerging a consensus that using longer segments, allied with the use of a realistic model of evolution and a codon alignment, increases the likelihood of inferring true transmission clusters. The pol gene is still the most used genomic region, but recent studies have suggested that whole genomes and/or sequences from nef and gp41 are also good targets for cluster reconstruction.

SUMMARY

The development and application of standard methodologies for phylogenetic clustering analysis will advance our understanding of factors associated with HIV transmission. This will lead to the design of more precise public health interventions.

The Transmission and Evolution of HIV-1 Quasispecies within One Couple: a Follow-up Study based on Next-Generation Sequencing

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) has been successfully used to trace HIV-1 infection. In this study, we investigated the transmission and evolution of HIV-1 quasispecies in a couple infected through heterosexual behavior. A heterosexual couple in which both partners were infected with HIV-1 was followed up for 54 months. Blood samples including whole-blood and plasma samples, were collected at various time points. After HIV-1 subtyping, NGS (Miseq platform) was used to sequence the env region of the HIV-1 quasispecies. Genetic distances were calculated, and phylogenetic trees were generated. We found both partners were infected with HIV-1 subtype circulating recombinant form (CRF), CRF65_cpx. The quasispecies distribution was relatively tightly clustered in the phylogenetic tree during early infection. Over time, the distribution of HIV-1 quasispecies gradually became more dispersed at 12^th months, with a progressive increase in gene diversity. By 37^th months, the sequences obtained for both partners formed different clusters in the phylogenetic tree. These results suggest that the HIV-1 contact tracing results generated by the Miseq platform may be more reliable than other conventional sequencing methods, which can provide important information about the transmission and evolution of HIV-1. Our findings may help to better target preventative interventions for promoting public health.

Using nearly full-genome HIV sequence data improves phylogeny reconstruction in a simulated epidemic

HIV molecular epidemiology studies analyse viral pol gene sequences due to their availability, but whole genome sequencing allows to use other genes. We aimed to determine what gene(s) provide(s) the best approximation to the real phylogeny by analysing a simulated epidemic (created as part of the PANGEA_HIV project) with a known transmission tree. We sub-sampled a simulated dataset of 4662 sequences into different combinations of genes (gag-pol-env, gag-pol, gag, pol, env and partial pol) and sampling depths (100%, 60%, 20% and 5%), generating 100 replicates for each case. We built maximum-likelihood trees for each combination using RAxML (GTR + Γ), and compared their topologies to the corresponding true tree’s using CompareTree. The accuracy of the trees was significantly proportional to the length of the sequences used, with the gag-pol-env datasets showing the best performance and gag and partial pol sequences showing the worst. The lowest sampling depths (20% and 5%) greatly reduced the accuracy of tree reconstruction and showed high variability among replicates, especially when using the shortest gene datasets. In conclusion, using longer sequences derived from nearly whole genomes will improve the reliability of phylogenetic reconstruction. With low sample coverage, results can be highly variable, particularly when based on short sequences.

Near real-time monitoring of HIV transmission hotspots from routine HIV genotyping: an implementation case study

BACKGROUND

HIV evolves rapidly and therefore infections with similar genetic sequences are likely linked by recent transmission events. Clusters of related infections can represent subpopulations with high rates of transmission. We describe the implementation of an automated near real-time system to monitor and characterise HIV transmission hotspots in British Columbia, Canada.

METHODS

In this implementation case study, we applied a monitoring system to the British Columbia drug treatment database, which holds more than 32 000 anonymised HIV genotypes for nearly 9000 residents of British Columbia living with HIV. On average, five to six new HIV genotypes are deposited in the database every day, which triggers an automated reanalysis of the entire database. We extracted clusters of five or more individuals with short phylogenetic distances between their respective HIV sequences. The system generated monthly reports of the growth and characteristics of clusters that were distributed to public health officers.

FINDINGS

In June, 2014, the monitoring system detected the expansion of a cluster by 11 new cases during 3 months, including eight cases with transmitted drug resistance. This cluster generally comprised young men who have sex with men. The subsequent report precipitated an enhanced public health follow-up to ensure linkage to care and treatment initiation in the affected subpopulation. Of the nine cases associated with this follow-up, all had already been linked to care and five cases had started treatment. Subsequent to the follow-up, three additional cases started treatment and most cases achieved suppressed viral loads. During the next 12 months, we detected 12 new cases in this cluster with reduction in the onward transmission of drug resistance.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show the first application of an automated phylogenetic system monitoring a clinical database to detect a recent HIV outbreak and support the ensuing public health response. By making secondary use of routinely collected HIV genotypes, this approach is cost-effective, attains near real-time monitoring of new cases, and can be implemented in all settings in which HIV genotyping is the standard of care.

FUNDING

BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, the Genome Canada-CIHR Partnership in Genomics and Personalized Health, and the US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Estimating the timing of mother-to-child transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 using a viral molecular evolution model

Background

Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is responsible for most pediatric HIV-1 infections worldwide. It can occur during pregnancy, labor, or breastfeeding. Numerous studies have used coalescent and molecular clock methods to understand the epidemic history of HIV-1, but the timing of vertical transmission has not been studied using these methods. Taking advantage of the constant accumulation of HIV genetic variation over time and using longitudinally sampled viral sequences, we used a coalescent approach to investigate the timing of MTCT.

Materials and Methods

Six-hundred and twenty-two clonal env sequences from the RNA and DNA viral population were longitudinally sampled from nine HIV-1 infected mother-and-child pairs [range: 277–1034 days]. For each transmission pair, timing of MTCT was determined using a coalescent-based model within a Bayesian statistical framework. Results were compared with available estimates of MTCT timing obtained with the classic biomedical approach based on serial HIV DNA detection by PCR assays.

Results

Four children were infected during pregnancy, whereas the remaining five children were infected at time of delivery. For eight out of nine pairs, results were consistent with the transmission periods assessed by standard PCR-based assay. The discordance in the remaining case was likely confused by co-infection, with simultaneous introduction of multiple maternal viral variants at the time of delivery.

Conclusions

The study provided the opportunity to validate the Bayesian coalescent approach that determines the timing of MTCT of HIV-1. It illustrates the power of population genetics approaches to reliably estimate the timing of transmission events and deepens our knowledge about the dynamics of viral evolution in HIV-infected children, accounting for the complexity of multiple transmission events.

The genealogical population dynamics of HIV-1 in a large transmission chain: bridging within and among host evolutionary rates

Transmission lies at the interface of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) evolution within and among hosts and separates distinct selective pressures that impose differences in both the mode of diversification and the tempo of evolution. In the absence of comprehensive direct comparative analyses of the evolutionary processes at different biological scales, our understanding of how fast within-host HIV-1 evolutionary rates translate to lower rates at the between host level remains incomplete. Here, we address this by analyzing pol and env data from a large HIV-1 subtype C transmission chain for which both the timing and the direction is known for most transmission events. To this purpose, we develop a new transmission model in a Bayesian genealogical inference framework and demonstrate how to constrain the viral evolutionary history to be compatible with the transmission history while simultaneously inferring the within-host evolutionary and population dynamics. We show that accommodating a transmission bottleneck affords the best fit our data, but the sparse within-host HIV-1 sampling prevents accurate quantification of the concomitant loss in genetic diversity. We draw inference under the transmission model to estimate HIV-1 evolutionary rates among epidemiologically-related patients and demonstrate that they lie in between fast intra-host rates and lower rates among epidemiologically unrelated individuals infected with HIV subtype C. Using a new molecular clock approach, we quantify and find support for a lower evolutionary rate along branches that accommodate a transmission event or branches that represent the entire backbone of transmitted lineages in our transmission history. Finally, we recover the rate differences at the different biological scales for both synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates, which is only compatible with the ‘store and retrieve’ hypothesis positing that viruses stored early in latently infected cells preferentially transmit or establish new infections upon reactivation.

Since its discovery three decades ago, the HIV epidemic has unfolded into one of the most devastating pandemics in human history. When HIV replication cannot be completely inhibited, the fast-evolving retrovirus continuously evades intra-host immune and drug selective pressure, but diversifies according to more neutral epidemiological dynamics at the interhost level. Limited evidence suggests that the virus may evolve faster in a single host than in a population of hosts, and various hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon. Here, we develop a new computational approach aimed at integrating host transmission information with pathogen genealogical reconstructions. We apply this approach to comprehensive sequence data sets sampled from a large HIV-1 subtype C transmission chain, and in addition to providing several insights into the reconstruction of HIV-1 transmissions histories and its associated population dynamics, we find that transmission decreases the HIV-1 evolutionary rate. The fact that we also identify this decline for substitutions that do not alter amino acid substitutions provides evidence against hypotheses that invoke selection forces. Instead, our findings support earlier reports that new infections start preferentially with less evolved variants, which may be stored in latently infected cells, and this may vary among different HIV-1 subtypes.

HIV migration between blood and cerebrospinal fluid or semen over time

Previous studies reported associations between neuropathogenesis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) compartmentalization in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and between sexual transmission and human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) compartmentalization in semen. It remains unclear, however, how compartmentalization dynamics change over time. To address this, we used statistical methods and Bayesian phylogenetic approaches to reconstruct temporal dynamics of HIV migration between blood and CSF and between blood and the male genital tract. We investigated 11 HIV-infected individuals with paired semen and blood samples and 4 individuals with paired CSF and blood samples. Aligned partial HIV env sequences were analyzed by (1) phylogenetic reconstruction, using a Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach; (2) evaluation of viral compartmentalization, using tree-based and distance-based methods; and (3) analysis of migration events, using a discrete Bayesian asymmetric phylogeographic approach of diffusion with Markov jump counts estimation. Finally, we evaluated potential correlates of viral gene flow across anatomical compartments. We observed bidirectional replenishment of viral compartments and asynchronous peaks of viral migration from and to blood over time, suggesting that disruption of viral compartment is transient and directionally selected. These findings imply that viral subpopulations in anatomical sites are an active part of the whole viral population and that compartmental reservoirs could have implications in future eradication studies.

MRSA transmission on a neonatal intensive care unit: epidemiological and genome-based phylogenetic analyses

BACKGROUND

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) may cause prolonged outbreaks of infections in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). While the specific factors favouring MRSA spread on neonatal wards are not well understood, colonized infants, their relatives, or health-care workers may all be sources for MRSA transmission. Whole-genome sequencing may provide a new tool for elucidating transmission pathways of MRSA at a local scale.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We applied whole-genome sequencing to trace MRSA spread in a NICU and performed a case-control study to identify risk factors for MRSA transmission. MRSA genomes had accumulated sequence variation sufficiently fast to reflect epidemiological linkage among individual patients, between infants and their mothers, and between infants and staff members, such that the relevance of individual nurses' nasal MRSA colonization for prolonged transmission could be evaluated. In addition to confirming previously reported risk factors, we identified an increased risk of transmission from infants with as yet unknown MRSA colonisation, in contrast to known MRSA-positive infants.

CONCLUSIONS

The integration of epidemiological (temporal, spatial) and genomic data enabled the phylogenetic testing of several hypotheses on specific MRSA transmission routes within a neonatal intensive-care unit. The pronounced risk of transmission emanating from undetected MRSA carriers suggested that increasing the frequency or speed of microbiological diagnostics could help to reduce transmission of MRSA.

Gag sequence variation in a human immunodeficiency virus type 1 transmission cluster influences viral replication fitness

Three men from a proven homosexual human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmission cluster showed large variation in their clinical course of infection. To evaluate the effect of evolution of the same viral variant in these three patients, we analysed sequence variation in the capsid protein and determined the impact of the observed variation on viral replication fitness in vitro. Viral gag sequences from all three patients contained a mutation at position 242, T242N or T242S, which have been associated with lower virus replication in vitro. Interestingly, HIV-1 variants from patients with a progressive clinical course of infection developed compensatory mutations within the capsid that restored viral fitness, instead of reversion of the T242S mutation. In HIV-1 variants from patient 1, an HLA-B57(+) elite controller, no compensatory mutations emerged during follow-up.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 transmission in a cohort of HIV-1 concordant heterosexual couples from Dakar, Senegal

Background

A large number of HIV-1 infections in Africa occur in married couples. The predominant direction of intracouple transmission and the principal external origins of infection remain important issues of debate.

Methods

We investigated HIV-1 transmission in 46 HIV-1 concordant positive couples from Dakar, Senegal. Intracouple transmission was confirmed by maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis and pairwise distance comparisons of HIV-1 env gp41 sequences from both partners. Standardized interview data were used to deduce the direction as well as the external sources of the intracouple transmissions.

Results

Conservative molecular analyses showed linked viruses in 34 (74%) couples, unlinked viruses in 6 (13%) couples, and indeterminate results for 6 (13%) couples. The interview data corresponded completely with the molecular analyses: all linked couples reported internal transmission and all unlinked couples reported external sources of infection. The majority of linked couples (93%) reported the husband as internal source of infection. These husbands most frequently (82%) reported an occasional sexual relationship as external source of infection. Pairwise comparisons of the CD4 count, antiretroviral therapy status, and the proportion of gp41 ambiguous base pairs within transmission pairs correlated with the reported order of infection events.

Conclusions

In this suburban Senegalese population, a majority of HIV-1 concordant couples showed linked HIV-1 transmission with the husband as likely index partner. Our data emphasize the risk of married women for acquiring HIV-1 as a result of the occasional sexual relationships of their husbands.