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Moore M, Stansfield S, Donnell DJ, Boily MC, Mitchell KM, Anderson PL, Delany-Moretlwe S, Bekker LG, Mgodi NM, Celum CL, Dimitrov D. Efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence. Nat Med 2023; 29:2748-2752. [PMID: 37798438 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-023-02564-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023]
Abstract
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir (TFV) disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine administered orally daily is effective in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition in both men and women with sufficient adherence; however, the adherence-efficacy relationship in cisgender women has not been well established. We calculated the adherence-efficacy curve for cisgender women by using HIV incidence and plasma TFV concentration data from three trials (FEM-PrEP, VOICE and Partners PrEP). We imputed TFV diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentrations, a measure of long-term adherence, from TFV quantification by using data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 082 study, which measured both TFV-DP and TFV concentrations. Two, four and seven pills per week reduced HIV incidence by 59.3% (95% credible interval (CrI) 29.9-95.8%), 83.8% (95% CI 51.7-99.8%) and 95.9% (95% CI 72.6-100%), respectively. Our adherence-efficacy curve can be validated and updated by HIV prevention studies that directly measure TFV-DP concentrations. The curve suggests that high adherence confers high protection in cisgender women. However, the lower efficacy with partial adherence highlights the need for new PrEP products and interventions to increase adherence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mia Moore
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Sarah Stansfield
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Deborah J Donnell
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marie-Claude Boily
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kate M Mitchell
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Peter L Anderson
- Anschutz Medical Campus, University of Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA
| | | | - Linda-Gail Bekker
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Nyaradzo M Mgodi
- College of Health Sciences Clinical Trials Research Centre, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Connie L Celum
- Departments of Global Health, Medicine and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Dobromir Dimitrov
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Stone J, Bothma R, Gomez GB, Eakle R, Mukandavire C, Subedar H, Fraser H, Boily M, Schwartz S, Coetzee J, Otwombe K, Milovanovic M, Baral S, Johnson LF, Venter WDF, Rees H, Vickerman P. Impact and cost-effectiveness of the national scale-up of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers in South Africa: a modelling analysis. J Int AIDS Soc 2023; 26:e26063. [PMID: 36807874 PMCID: PMC9939943 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 02/22/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION In 2016, South Africa (SA) initiated a national programme to scale-up pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among female sex workers (FSWs), with ∼20,000 PrEP initiations among FSWs (∼14% of FSW) by 2020. We evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of this programme, including future scale-up scenarios and the potential detrimental impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS A compartmental HIV transmission model for SA was adapted to include PrEP. Using estimates on self-reported PrEP adherence from a national study of FSW (67.7%) and the Treatment and Prevention for FSWs (TAPS) PrEP demonstration study in SA (80.8%), we down-adjusted TAPS estimates for the proportion of FSWs with detectable drug levels (adjusted range: 38.0-70.4%). The model stratified FSW by low (undetectable drug; 0% efficacy) and high adherence (detectable drug; 79.9%; 95% CI: 67.2-87.6% efficacy). FSWs can transition between adherence levels, with lower loss-to-follow-up among highly adherent FSWs (aHR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.40-0.85; TAPS data). The model was calibrated to monthly data on the national scale-up of PrEP among FSWs over 2016-2020, including reductions in PrEP initiations during 2020. The model projected the impact of the current programme (2016-2020) and the future impact (2021-2040) at current coverage or if initiation and/or retention are doubled. Using published cost data, we assessed the cost-effectiveness (healthcare provider perspective; 3% discount rate; time horizon 2016-2040) of the current PrEP provision. RESULTS Calibrated to national data, model projections suggest that 2.1% of HIV-negative FSWs were currently on PrEP in 2020, with PrEP preventing 0.45% (95% credibility interval, 0.35-0.57%) of HIV infections among FSWs over 2016-2020 or 605 (444-840) infections overall. Reductions in PrEP initiations in 2020 possibly reduced infections averted by 18.57% (13.99-23.29). PrEP is cost-saving, with $1.42 (1.03-1.99) of ART costs saved per dollar spent on PrEP. Going forward, existing coverage of PrEP will avert 5,635 (3,572-9,036) infections by 2040. However, if PrEP initiation and retention doubles, then PrEP coverage increases to 9.9% (8.7-11.6%) and impact increases 4.3 times with 24,114 (15,308-38,107) infections averted by 2040. CONCLUSIONS Our findings advocate for the expansion of PrEP to FSWs throughout SA to maximize its impact. This should include strategies to optimize retention and should target women in contact with FSW services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jack Stone
- Population Health SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - Rutendo Bothma
- Wits RHIUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Gabriela B. Gomez
- Department of Global Health and DevelopmentLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | - Robyn Eakle
- Wits RHIUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
- Department of Global Health and DevelopmentLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
- Office of HIV AIDSU.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)WashingtonDCUSA
| | - Christinah Mukandavire
- Population Health SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
- Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | | | - Hannah Fraser
- Population Health SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - Marie‐Claude Boily
- Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - Sheree Schwartz
- Department of EpidemiologyJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | - Jenny Coetzee
- Perinatal HIV Research UnitFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
- South African Medical Research CouncilCape TownSouth Africa
- African Potential Management ConsultancyKyalamiSouth Africa
| | - Kennedy Otwombe
- Perinatal HIV Research UnitFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
- School of Public HealthFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Minja Milovanovic
- Perinatal HIV Research UnitFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
- African Potential Management ConsultancyKyalamiSouth Africa
| | - Stefan Baral
- Department of EpidemiologyJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | - Leigh F. Johnson
- Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and ResearchUniversity of Cape TownCape TownSouth Africa
| | | | - Helen Rees
- Wits RHIUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
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Silhol R, Geidelberg L, Mitchell KM, Mishra S, Dimitrov D, Bowring A, Béhanzin L, Guédou F, Diabaté S, Schwartz S, Billong SC, Njindam IM, Levitt D, Mukandavire C, Maheu-Giroux M, Rönn MM, Dalal S, Vickerman P, Baral S, Alary M, Boily MC. Assessing the Potential Impact of Disruptions Due to COVID-19 on HIV Among Key and Lower-Risk Populations in the Largest Cities of Cameroon and Benin. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2021; 87:899-911. [PMID: 33657058 PMCID: PMC8191475 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2020] [Accepted: 02/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men, and overall. SETTING Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin). METHODS We used mathematical models of HIV calibrated to city population-specific and risk population-specific demographic/behavioral/epidemic data. We estimated the relative change in 1-year HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths for various disruption scenarios of HIV prevention/treatment services and decreased casual/commercial partnerships, compared with a scenario without COVID-19. RESULTS A 50% reduction in condom use in all partnerships over 6 months would increase 1-year HIV incidence by 39%, 42%, 31%, and 23% among men who have sex with men, FSW, clients, and overall in Yaoundé, respectively, and 69%, 49%, and 23% among FSW, clients, and overall, respectively, in Cotonou. Combining a 6-month interruption of ART initiation and 50% reduction in HIV prevention/treatment use would increase HIV incidence by 50% and HIV-related deaths by 20%. This increase in HIV infections would be halved by a simultaneous 50% reduction in casual and commercial partnerships. CONCLUSIONS Reductions in condom use after COVID-19 would increase infections among key populations disproportionately, particularly FSW in Cotonou, who need uninterrupted condom provision. Disruptions in HIV prevention/treatment services have the biggest impacts on HIV infections and deaths overall, only partially mitigated by equal reductions in casual/commercial sexual partnerships. Maintaining ART provision must be prioritized to minimize short-term excess HIV-related deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Romain Silhol
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Lily Geidelberg
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kate M. Mitchell
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sharmistha Mishra
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Disease, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Anna Bowring
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Luc Béhanzin
- National School of Public Health and Epidemiological Surveillance workers, Parakou University, Bénin
| | - Fernand Guédou
- Free STI clinic, Cotonou Communal Health Center, Cotonou, Bénin
| | - Souleymane Diabaté
- Population Health and Optimal Health Practices, Québec University Hospital Research Center, Laval University, Québec, Quebec, Canada
| | - Sheree Schwartz
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Serge C. Billong
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, University of Yaoundé 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon
| | | | - Daniel Levitt
- HIV/AIDS Heath Equity and Rights, CARE USA, New York, NY
| | - Christinah Mukandavire
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Mathieu Maheu-Giroux
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Minttu M. Rönn
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| | - Shona Dalal
- Department of HIV/AIDS, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; and
| | - Peter Vickerman
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Stefan Baral
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Michel Alary
- Population Health and Optimal Health Practices, Québec University Hospital Research Center, Laval University, Québec, Quebec, Canada
| | - Marie-Claude Boily
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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