Prognosis and Risk Factors of Sepsis Patients in Chinese ICUs: A Retrospective Analysis of a Cohort Database

Association Between Age and the 28-Day All-Cause Mortality in Tuberculosis Complicated by Sepsis in ICU Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Purpose

Age is considered a vital factor in intensive care units (ICUs) because of its association with physiological frailty, comorbidities, and immune system function. Previous studies have examined the association between age and prognosis in patients with tuberculosis (TB) or sepsis; however, the association between age and prognosis in ICU patients with TB complicated by sepsis is rare. This study aimed to assess the association between age and the prognosis of patients in the ICU with TB complicated by sepsis.

Patients and Methods

Data from the ICU of the Public Health Clinical Center of Chengdu were analyzed using the multivariable Cox regression model, stratified analysis with interaction, restricted cubic spline (RCS), and threshold effect analysis to investigate the association between age and 28-day all-cause mortality in patients with TB complicated by sepsis.

Results

In total, 520 patients diagnosed with TB and sepsis were enrolled (120 women [23.1%]; median age, 64 years). The association between age and risk of death exhibited a J-shaped curve on the RCS (P for nonlinearity = 0.001). In the threshold analysis, the hazard ratio for the risk of death was 1.104 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.16) in participants aged ≥66.2 years. The risk of death increased by 10.4% with every 1-year increase in age in patients with TB complicated by sepsis. No significant association was found between age and 28-day all-cause mortality in patients aged <66.2 years.

Conclusion

A nonlinear relationship was observed between age and short-term all-cause mortality in patients in the ICU with TB complicated by sepsis. Patients with a higher age at admission may have a higher risk of death and require focused attention, close monitoring, and early treatment to reduce mortality.

Association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis: a retrospective study based on the MIMIC-III database

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a common cause of mortality in critically ill patients, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the most common comorbidities in septic patients. However, the impact of COPD on patients with sepsis remained unclear. Therefore, the purpose of this study aimed to assess the effect of COPD on the prognosis of septic patients based on Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database.

METHODS

In this retrospective study based on the (MIMIC)-III database version 1.4 (v1.4), we collected clinical data and 28-day all-cause mortality from patients with sepsis in intensive care unit (ICU) and these patients met the diagnostic criteria of Sepsis 3 on ICU admission between 2008 and 2012. International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) (4660, 490, 4910, 4911, 49120, 49121, 4918, 4919, 4920, 4928, 494, 4940, 4941, 496) was used to identified COPD. We applied Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare difference of 28-day all-cause mortality between septic patients with and without COPD. Cox proportional-hazards model was applied to explore the risk factor associated with 28-day all-cause mortality in patients with sepsis.

RESULTS

Six thousand two hundred fifty seven patients with sepsis were included in this study, including 955 (15.3%) patients with COPD and 5302 patients without COPD (84.7%). Compared with patients without COPD, patients with COPD were older (median: 73.5 [64.4, 82.0] vs 65.8 [52.9, 79.1], P < 0.001), had higher simplified acute physiology score II (SAPSII) (median: 40.0 [33.0, 49.0] vs 38.0 [29.0,47.0], P < 0.001) and greater proportion of mechanical ventilatory support (MV) (55.0% vs 48.9%, P = 0.001). In our study, septic patients with COPD had higher 28-day all-cause mortality (23.6% vs 16.4%, P < 0.001) than patients without COPD. After adjusting for covariates, the results showed that COPD was an independent risk factor for the 28-day all-cause mortality of patients with sepsis (HR 1.30, 95%CI: 1.12-1.50, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

COPD was an independent risk factor of 28-day all-cause mortality in septic patients. Clinically, septic patients with COPD should be given additional care.

Interpretable machine-learning model for real-time, clustered risk factor analysis of sepsis and septic death in critical care

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Interpretable and real-time prediction of sepsis and risk factor analysis could enable timely treatment by clinicians and improve patient outcomes. To develop an interpretable machine-learning model for the prediction and risk factor analysis of sepsis and septic death.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational cohort study based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) dataset; 69,619 patients from the database were screened. The two outcomes include patients diagnosed with sepsis and the death of septic patients. Clinical variables from ICU admission to outcomes were analyzed: demographic data, vital signs, Glasgow Coma Scale scores, laboratory test results, and results for arterial blood gasses (ABGs). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model interpretations were based on the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), and the clustered analysis was based on the combination of K-means and dimensionality reduction algorithms of t-SNE and PCA.

RESULTS

For the analysis of sepsis and septic death, 47,185 and 2480 patients were enrolled, respectively. The XGBoost model achieved a predictive value of area under the curve (AUC): 0.745 [0.731-0.759] for sepsis prediction and 0.8 [0.77, 0.828] for septic death prediction. The real-time prediction model was trained to predict by day and visualize the individual or combined risk factor effects on the outcomes based on SHAP values. Clustered analysis separated the two phenotypes with distinct risk factors among patients with septic death.

CONCLUSION

The proposed real-time, clustered prediction model for sepsis and septic death exhibited superior performance in predicting the outcomes and visualizing the risk factors in a real-time and interpretable manner to distinguish and mitigate patient risks, thus promising immense potential in effective clinical decision making and comprehensive understanding of complex diseases such as sepsis.

U-SHAPED ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SERUM CALCIUM LEVELS AND 28-DAY MORTALITY IN PATIENTS WITH SEPSIS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE MIMIC-III DATABASE

ABSTRACT

Background: Serum calcium levels disorder have been reported to be associated with poor prognosis in different diseases. Studies on the association between serum calcium and outcomes of septic patients remained limited. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between serum calcium and 28-day mortality in septic patients. Method: Patients diagnosed with sepsis in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database were included. Patients were divided into five groups according to the quintiles of serum calcium levels, and their baseline characteristics were compared. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess the association between serum calcium and 28-day mortality. Smooth curve fitting and segmented regression models were used to visualize the association between serum calcium levels and 28-day mortality risk. The 28-day survival probability between five groups was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: A total of 3,016 patients with sepsis were enrolled, and the 28-day mortality rate was 35.64%. After adjusting for confounders, compared with the reference quintile (Q4: 9.00-9.50), the lowest serum calcium level quintile (Q1: 5.70-8.20) was independently associated with an increased risk of 28-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.12; 95% CI, 1.76-2.56). Smooth spline fitting revealed a U-shaped association between serum calcium and 28-day mortality. When serum calcium was <9.0 mg/dL, 28-day mortality risk increased by 58% per unit decrease in serum calcium (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.37-0.48). When serum calcium was >9.0 mg/dL, the 28-day mortality risk increased by 12% per unit increase in serum calcium (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04-1.20). Conclusion: A U-shaped association was observed between serum calcium levels and 28-day mortality in septic patients. Lower or higher serum calcium levels were associated with increased risk of 28-day mortality in septic patients.

Effect of weekend admission on mortality risk in patients with sepsis and septic shock: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is an ongoing debate if weekend admissions of critically ill patients are associated with higher mortality rates. The current review aimed to specifically assess this effect in sepsis and septic shock patients by comparing mortality rates with weekend versus weekday admissions.

METHODS

PubMed, CENTRAL, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase were searched up to 20th February 2023 with an additional search of Google Scholar for gray literature.

RESULTS

Nine studies were eligible. Meta-analysis of all nine studies with data from 1,134,417 patients demonstrated that sepsis or septic shock patients admitted on weekends don't have higher mortality as compared to those admitted on weekdays (OR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.09; p = 0.05; I2 = 93%). On subgroup analysis based on sample size (>2000 or <2000 patients) and timing of mortality, we noted no difference in the significance of the results. However, there was a small significant increased risk of mortality with weekend admission noted in studies on the Asian population and including septic shock patients.

CONCLUSION

Weekend admission does not have an adverse impact on mortality rates of sepsis and septic shock patients. Results must be interpreted with caution owing to high interstudy heterogeneity and variation in confounders adjusted by individual studies.

CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTORS OF MORTALITY DIFFER BETWEEN PULMONARY AND ABDOMINAL SEPSIS

ABSTRACT

Background: Pulmonary sepsis and abdominal sepsis have pathophysiologically distinct phenotypes. This study aimed to compare their clinical characteristics and predictors of mortality. Methods: In this multicenter retrospective trial, 1,359 adult patients who fulfilled the Sepsis-3 criteria were enrolled and classified into the pulmonary sepsis or abdominal sepsis groups. Plasma presepsin was measured, and the scores of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II were calculated at enrollment. Data on 28-day mortality were collected for all patients. Results: Compared with patients with abdominal sepsis (n = 464), patients with pulmonary sepsis (n = 895) had higher 28-day mortality rate, illness severity scores, incidence of shock and acute kidney injury, and hospitalization costs. Lactate level and APACHE II and MEDS scores were independently associated with 28-day mortality in both sepsis types. Independent predictors of 28-day mortality included Pa o2 /F io2 ratio (hazard ratio [HR], 0.998; P < 0.001) and acute kidney injury (HR, 1.312; P = 0.039) in pulmonary sepsis, and SAPS II (HR, 1.037; P = 0.017) in abdominal sepsis. A model that combined APACHE II score, lactate, and MEDS score or SAPS II score had the best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in predicting mortality in patients with pulmonary sepsis or abdominal sepsis, respectively. Interaction term analysis confirmed the association between 28-day mortality and lactate, APACHE II score, MEDS score, SAPS II score, and shock according to the sepsis subgroups. The mortality of patients with pulmonary sepsis was higher than that of patients with abdominal sepsis among patients without shock (32.9% vs. 8.8%; P < 0.001) but not among patients with shock (63.7 vs. 48.4%; P = 0.118). Conclusions: Patients with pulmonary sepsis had higher 28-day mortality than patients with abdominal sepsis. The study identified sepsis subgroup-specific mortality predictors. Shock had a larger effect on mortality in patients with abdominal sepsis than in those with pulmonary sepsis.

Organism type of infection is associated with prognosis in sepsis: an analysis from the MIMIC-IV database

BACKGROUND

Sepsis has a high mortality rate, which is expensive to treat, and is a major drain on healthcare resources; it seriously impacts the quality of human life. The clinical features of positive or non-positive blood cultures have been reported, but the clinical features of sepsis with different microbial infections and how they contribute to clinical outcomes have not been adequately described.

METHODS

We extracted clinical data of septic patients with a single pathogen from the online Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care(MIMIC)-IV database. Based on microbial cultures, patients were classified into Gram-negative, Gram-positive, and fungal groups. Then, we analyzed the clinical characteristics of sepsis patients with Gram-negative, Gram-positive, and fungal infections. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. The secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality, the length of hospital stay, the length of ICU stay, and the ventilation duration. In addition, Kaplan-Meier analysis was used for the 28-day cumulative survival rate of patients with sepsis. Finally, we performed further univariate and multivariate regression analyses for 28-day mortality and created a nomogram for predicting 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

The analysis showed that bloodstream infections showed a statistically significant difference in survival between Gram-positive and fungal organisms; drug resistance only reached statistical significance for Gram-positive bacteria. Through univariate and multivariate analysis, it was found that both the Gram-negative bacteria and fungi were independent risk factors for the short-term prognosis of sepsis patients. The multivariate regression model showed good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.788. We developed and validated a nomogram for the individualized prediction of 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis. Application of the nomogram still gave good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Organism type of infection is associated with mortality of sepsis, and early identification of the microbiological type of a patient with sepsis will provide an understanding of the patient's condition and guide treatment.

Study on the expression of TRIM7 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of patients with sepsis and its early diagnostic value

Background

The early diagnosis of sepsis is beneficial to put forward a reasonable clinical treatment plan as soon as possible. This study was to explore the expression of Tripartite Motif 7 (TRIM7) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of patients with sepsis and its diagnostic value.

Methods

This is a cross-sectional study. A total of 69 patients with infectious diseases were enrolled in the emergency room. They were divided into the sepsis group (34 cases) and the non-sepsis infection group (35 cases). There were 25 healthy subjects who were selected as the control group. The expression of TRIM7 in PBMCs was observed by immunofluorescence staining. The correlation between the expression of TRIM7 mRNA and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, white blood cell (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and interleukin (IL)-6 was discussed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized for evaluating the value of TRIM7 expression for the early diagnosis of sepsis.

Results

The fluorescence intensity representing the expression level of TRIM7 in PBMCs of patients in the sepsis group was the lowest among three groups. The TRIM7 mRNA expression in PBMCs of the sepsis group was greatly decreased in comparison with that of the non-sepsis infection group and control group (P < 0.05). Spearman correlation analysis indicated that TRIM7 mRNA expression was negatively correlated with APACHE II score, SOFA score, WBC, CRP, PCT, TNF-α and IL-6. ROC curve analysis revealed that the area under curve (AUC) of TRIM7 mRNA expression in PBMCs for the diagnosis of sepsis was 0.798, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.691- 0.905, a sensitivity of 73.5%, and a specificity of 77.1%.

Conclusion

The expression of TRIM7 in PBMCs of patients with sepsis is significantly down-regulated, which has certain clinical value for early diagnosis of sepsis.

Prevalence of sepsis among adults in China: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Sepsis is a major public health problem that cannot be ignored in China and even in the world. However, the prevalence of sepsis in Chinese adults varies among different studies.

Objective

To evaluate the prevalence of hospital-wide sepsis and intensive care unit (ICU) sepsis in Chinese adults.

Methods

PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Chinese biomedical literature service system, Wanfang Database, and VIP databases were systematically searched for studies on sepsis in China published before March 2, 2022. Random effects model was used to calculate pooled prevalence estimates with 95% confidence interval. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed to address heterogeneity. Funnel plots and Egger's test were used to assess the publication bias.

Results

Overall, nine observational studies involving 324,020 Chinese patients (9,587 patients with sepsis) were analyzed. Four hospital-wide studies involving 301,272 patients showed pooled prevalence and mortality of 3.8% (95% CI: 2.9-4.7%, I ² = 99.9%) and 26% (95% CI: 16-36%, I ² = 98.0%), respectively. Five studies of ICU sepsis involving 22,748 patients presented pooled prevalence and mortality of 25.5% (95% CI: 13.9-37.0%, I ² = 99.8%) and 40% (95%CI: 34-47%, I ² = 95.9%), respectively. Subgroup analysis of sepsis in ICUs revealed that the pooled prevalence was higher among males [17% (95% CI 9-24%, I ² = 99.6%)], in lung infections [66% (95%CI: 54-77%, I ² = 98.7%)], and Gram-negative bacteria infections [37% (95%CI: 26-47%, I ² = 98.3%)]. The pooled prevalence of sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock was 25.5% (95%CI: 13.9-37.0%, I ² = 99.8%), 19% (95%CI: 9-28%, I ² = 99.6%), and 13% (95%CI: 7-19%, I ² = 99.2%), respectively.

Conclusions

Sepsis is prevalent in 25.5% of ICU patients in China, and sex, sepsis severity, infection site, causative microorganism, and infection type are significant influencing factors. Larger trials are needed to evaluate the prevalence of sepsis in China, which may help the development of global strategies for sepsis management.

Systematic review registration

PROSPERO, identifier: CRD42022314274.

Independent risk factors of mortality in patients with sepsis receiving single-dose etomidate as an induction agent during rapid sequence intubation in a large tertiary emergency department in Thailand

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence regarding factors associated with mortality in septic patients receiving etomidate. This study aimed to determine independent pre-intubation factors predicting 28-day mortality in septic patients receiving single-dose etomidate as an induction agent during rapid sequence intubation (RSI).

METHODS

This single-center retrospective cohort study included intubated septic patients receiving etomidate as an induction agent during RSI in the emergency department of Siriraj hospital, Bangkok, Thailand, between January 1st, 2016 and June 30th, 2020. Pre-intubation characteristics were compared between survivors and non-survivors. Independent risk factors associated with 28-day mortality were identified using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Association between etomidate dosage and mortality was also determined.

RESULTS

A total of 344 patients, 238 (69%) survivors and 106 (31%) non-survivors, were included in the analyses. The initial Cox hazards model identified a pre-intubation lactate level ≥ 4 mmol/L as an independent factor associated with mortality (adjusted Hazards ratio [aHR] 2.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.55-4.56). After removing lactate level from the model due to limited lactate values in the data, cancer was also predictive of 28-day mortality (aHR 1.83, 95%CI 1.10-3.04), while patients with respiratory infections and underlying chronic lung disease were associated with lower mortality (aHR 0.54, 95%CI 0.37-0.80 and aHR 0.57, 0.33-0.96, respectively). Etomidate dosage was not associated with mortality in our study.

CONCLUSION

In septic patients who received a single dose of etomidate, a pre-intubation lactate level ≥ 4 mmol/L and cancer were associated with increased 28-day mortality, while respiratory infection and underlying chronic lung disease were associated with lower mortality. Physicians may take these factors into consideration when selecting induction agents for septic patients.