Nomogram prediction of metachronous colorectal neoplasms in patients with colorectal cancer. Ann Surg. 2015;261:926-932. [PMID: 25185472 DOI: 10.1097/sla.0000000000000881]

Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting overall survival in patients with gastric carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The prevalence and mortality rates of gastric carcinoma are disproportionately elevated in China, with the disease's intricate and varied characteristics further amplifying its health impact. Precise forecasting of overall survival (OS) is of paramount importance for the clinical management of individuals afflicted with this malignancy.

AIM

To develop and validate a nomogram model that provides precise gastric cancer prevention and treatment guidance and more accurate survival outcome prediction for patients with gastric carcinoma.

METHODS

Data analysis was conducted on samples collected from hospitalized gastric cancer patients between 2018 and 2020. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, univariate, and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to identify independent prognostic factors. A nomogram model was developed to predict gastric cancer patient outcomes. The model's predictability and discriminative ability were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic curves. To evaluate the clinical utility of the model, Kaplan-Meier and decision curve analyses were performed.

RESULTS

A total of ten independent prognostic factors were identified, including body mass index, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, radiation, chemotherapy, surgery, albumin, globulin, neutrophil count, lactate dehydrogenase, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival prediction in the training set were 0.843, 0.850, and 0.821, respectively. The AUC values were 0.864, 0.820, and 0.786 for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival prediction in the validation set, respectively. The model exhibited strong discriminative ability, with both the time AUC and time C-index exceeding 0.75. Compared with TNM staging, the model demonstrated superior clinical utility. Ultimately, a nomogram was developed via a web-based interface.

CONCLUSION

This study established and validated a novel nomogram model for predicting the OS of gastric cancer patients, which demonstrated strong predictive ability. Based on these findings, this model can aid clinicians in implementing personalized interventions for patients with gastric cancer.

Risk factors for synchronous high-risk polyps in patients with colorectal cancer

Purpose

Colorectal cancer (CRC) patients may experience inadequate preoperative colonoscopy due to bowel obstruction or inadequate bowel preparation, leading to potential oversight of other polyps. We aimed to identify risk factors for CRC complicated with synchronous high-risk polyps.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of 6,674 CRC patients from December 2014 to September 2018 was conducted. High-risk polyps were defined as adenomas or serrated polyps that were ≥10 mm, or with tubulovillous/villous components or high-grade dysplasia. All other polyps were defined as low-risk polyps. Patients with complete pathological and clinical information were categorized into three groups: the no polyp group, the low-risk polyp group, and the high-risk polyp group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all potential risk factors.

Results

Among the 4,659 eligible patients, 848 (18.2%) were found to have low-risk polyps, while 675 (14.5%) were diagnosed with high-risk polyps. In a multivariate logistic regression model, compared to patients without polyps, those with synchronous high-risk polyps were more likely to be male (OR = 2.07), aged 50 or older (OR = 2.77), have early-stage tumors (OR = 1.46), colon tumors (OR = 1.53), NRAS mutant tumors (OR = 1.66), and BRAF wild-type tumors (OR = 2.43).

Conclusion

Our study has identified several risk factors associated with the presence of synchronous high-risk polyps in CRC patients. Based on these findings, we recommend that patients who exhibit these high-risk factors undergo early follow-up of colonoscopy to detect synchronous polyps early.

Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for early-onset colon cancer in different tumor locations: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence of early-onset colon cancer (EOCC) among individuals below the age of 50 has shown a marked upward trend in recent years. The embryology, clinical symptoms, incidence, molecular pathways, and oncologic outcomes differ between right-sided and left-sided colon cancers. However, the differences have not been fully researched in EOCC. Our study aims to develop and validate prognostic nomograms predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for EOCC in different tumor locations based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Using the SEER database, a total of 5,588 patients with EOCC were extracted and divided into development and validation cohorts in a random allocation ratio of 7:3 across three groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors influencing OS and CSS outcomes. These factors were then utilized to construct nomogram models. The prognostic capabilities of the three models were assessed through various evaluation metrics, including the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and validation cohorts respectively. Additionally, survival curves of the low- and high-risk groups were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method together with the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Significant differences in clinical features were observed between right-sided and left-sided EOCCs, particularly in terms of OS (52 months vs 54 months) as demonstrated by Kaplan-Meier curves. Transverse-sided EOCCs exhibited clinical characteristics similar to right-sided EOCCs, suggesting a potential shared tumor microenvironment and therapeutic considerations. Advanced stage, liver metastasis, poor grade, elevated pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, chemotherapy, and perineural invasion were identified as independent prognostic factors across all three tumor locations and were incorporated into the nomogram model. Nomograms were constructed to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The C-index and calibration plots showed that the established nomograms had good consistency between actual clinical observations and predicted outcomes. ROC curves with calculated area under the curve (AUC) values exceeded 0.8 for all three groups in both the development and validation cohorts, indicating robust predictive performance for OS and CSS. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) plots revealed a threshold probability range of 0.1 to 0.9, within which the nomogram model exhibited maximum benefit. Kaplan-Meier curves exhibited significant differences between the low- and high-risk groups in EOCC for all three tumor locations in OS and CSS, further validating the prognostic value of the nomogram models.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully developed three precise nomogram models for EOCCs in different tumor locations, providing valuable support for clinicians in guiding clinical treatments and facilitating further prospective follow-up studies.

Prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer patients with multi-organ metastases: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database analysis

BACKGROUND

A nomogram that integrates risk models and clinical characteristics can accurately predict the prognosis of individual patients. We aimed to identify the prognostic factors and establish nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) in patients with multi-organ metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).

METHODS

Demographic and clinical information on multi-organ metastases from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors that were used to develop nomograms to predict CSS and OS, and to assess the concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve.

RESULTS

The patients were randomly assigned to the training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. A Cox proportional hazards model was conducted for CRC patients to identify independent prognostic factors, including age, sex, tumor size, metastases, degree of differentiation, stage T, stage N, primary and metastasis surgery. The competing risk models employed by Fine and Gray were used to identify the risk factors for CRC. Death from other causes was treated as a competing event, and Cox models were used to identify the factors for death to identify the independent factors of CSS. By incorporating the corresponding independent prognostic factors, we established prognostic nomograms for OS and CSS. Finally, we used the C-index, ROC curve, and calibration plots to assess the utility of the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the SEER database, we constructed a predictive model for CRC patients with multi-organ metastases. Nomograms provide clinicians with 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS predictions for CRC, allowing them to formulate appropriate treatment plans.

Prognostic value of miR-219-5p in relation to mortality in patients with small cell lung cancer: a retrospective, observational cohort study in China

OBJECTIVES

Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is a lethal human malignancy, and previous studies support the contribution of microRNA to cancer progression. The prognostic value of miR-219-5p in patients with SCLC remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of miR-219-5p with respect to mortality in patients with SCLC and to incorporate miR-219-5p level into a prediction model and nomogram for mortality.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Our main cohort included data from 133 patients with SCLC between 1 March 2010 and 1 June 2015 from the Suzhou Xiangcheng People's Hospital. Data from 86 patients with non-SCLC at Sichuan Cancer Hospital and the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were used for external validation.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Tissue samples were taken during admission and stored, and miR-219-5p levels were measured at a later date. A Cox proportional hazard model was used for survival analyses and for analysing risk factors to create a nomogram for mortality prediction. The accuracy of the model was evaluated by C-index and calibration curve.

RESULTS

Mortality in patients with a high level of miR-219-5p (≥1.50) (n=67) was 74.6%, while mortality in the low-level group (n=66) was 100.0%. Based on univariate analysis, we included significant factors (p<0.05) in a multivariate regression model: patients with high level of miR-219-5p (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.26-0.59, p<0.001), immunotherapy (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.23-0.84, p<0.001) and prognostic nutritional index score >47.9 (HR=0.45, 95% CI 0.24-0.83, p=0.01) remained statistically significant factors for improved overall survival. The nomogram had good accuracy in estimating the risk, with a bootstrap-corrected C-index of 0.691. External validation indicated an area under the curve of 0.749 (0.709-0.788).

CONCLUSIONS

The miR-219-5p level was associated with a reduced risk of mortality in patients with SCLC. A nomogram incorporating MiR-219-5p level and clinical factors demonstrated good accuracy in estimating the risk of overall mortality. Prospective validation of the prognostic nomogram is needed.

Identifying the long-term survival beneficiary of chemotherapy for stage N1c sigmoid colon cancer

Sigmoid colon cancer often has an unsatisfactory prognosis. This study explored the effect of tumor deposits (TDs) on survival, and whether their presence/absence influence individualized treatment. Data of postoperative patients with sigmoid colon cancer were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and prognostic factors were identified using Cox regression analysis and random forest (RF). The nomogram's discrimination performance was evaluated using a concordance index (C-index), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis. The N1c group showed a worse prognosis than the N0 group. For N1c patients, a combination of surgery and chemotherapy prolonged survival, compared to surgery alone; however, the chemotherapy-surgery combination did not affect the OS of patients younger than 70 years, in stage T1-2, and/or of black race. Multivariable analysis and RF presented Age, T stage, and N stage were the most important predictors for OS. The novel nomogram had superiority to the TNM staging system with improved C-index and IDI, as well as good consistency and higher clinical benefit. TDs are associated with poor survival from sigmoid colon cancer, and considering TDs can inform the formulation of individual treatment regimens. The nomogram shows satisfactory prediction ability for OS.

Novel Bedside Dynamic Nomograms to Predict the Probability of Postoperative Cognitive Dysfunction in Elderly Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery: A Retrospective Study

Purpose

Early and accurate prediction of elderly patients at high risk of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) after non-cardiac surgery will provide favorable evidence for rational perioperative management and long-term postoperative recovery. This study aimed to develop bedside dynamic nomograms to provide accurately an individualized prediction of the risk of POCD at 6-month postoperatively with patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery and to guide clinical decision-making and postoperative management.

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively collected patients undergoing surgical treatment at the Nanjing First Hospital between May 2020 and May 2021. We collected the data on preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Clinical and laboratory data on admission and intraoperative variables and postoperative variables were used. We measured the performances of the nomograms using sensitivity, specificity of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), the area under the ROC curves (AUC), the 10-fold cross-validation, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

POCD was observed in 23 of 415 patients (5.6%) at 6-month postoperatively. The preoperative and postoperative models obtained 91.6% and 94.0% accuracy rates on the data. Compared to the preoperative model, the postoperative model had an area under the receiver characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.973 vs 0.947, corresponding to a specificity of 0.941 vs 0.918 and a sensitivity of 0.913 vs 0.870. The overall performance of the postoperative model was better than the preoperative model.

Conclusion

In this study, we developed novel bedside dynamic nomograms with reasonable clinical utility that can provide individualized prediction of POCD risk at 6-month postoperatively in elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery at different time points based on patient admission and postoperative data. External validations are needed to ensure their value in predicting POCD in elderly patients.

Development and external validation of a dynamic nomogram to predict the survival for adenosquamous carcinoma of the pancreas

Objective

We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the survival and prognosis of adenosquamous carcinoma of the pancreas (ASCP).

Background

Adenosquamous carcinoma of the pancreas (ASCP) is a relatively rare histological subtype of pancreatic exocrine neoplasms. It was reported a worse survival in ASCP than in pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Prediction of ASCP prognosis is of great importance.

Methods

Histologically confirmed ASCP patients from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database were finally enrolled and divided into development and internal validation cohorts. Moreover, a multi-center cohort of 70 patients from China was registered as the external validation. A nomogram was developed based on independent predictors of ASCP determined in multivariable analysis.

Results

A total of 233 patients from SEER were finally included. Univariate and Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and lymph node ratio (LNR) were considered the independent prognostic indicators. We developed a nomogram according to these four parameters. The C index of the nomogram in the development cohort was 0.696. Through analysis of the area under the curve (AUC) of the different cohorts, we observed that the predictive efficacy of the nomogram for 1-, and 2-year overall survival (OS) were better than those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM (8th) staging system both in the development and validation cohort. External validation confirmed that 1-year survival is 67.2% vs. 29.7%, similar to the internal cohort analysis.

Conclusion

The nomogram showed good performance in predicting the survival of ASCP. It could help surgeons to make clinical decisions and develop further plans.

Decreased complement 4d increases poor prognosis in patients with non‑small cell lung cancer combined with gastrointestinal lymph node metastasis

Lung cancer is a common malignancy that is difficult to treat and has a high risk of mortality. Although gastrointestinal lymph node metastasis has long been known to exert major impact on the prognosis of lung cancer, the mechanism of its occurrence and potential biological markers remain elusive. Therefore, the present study retrospectively analyzed data from 132 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) combined with lymph node metastasis between February 2010 and April 2019 from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University (Suzhou, China) and Sichuan Cancer Hospital (Chengdu, China). Overall survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox logistic regression model. In addition, a prediction model was constructed based on immune indicators such as complement C3b and C4d (measured by ELISA), before the accuracy of this model was validated using calibration curves for 5-year OS. Among the 132 included patients, a total of 92 (70.0%) succumbed to the disease within 5 years. Multifactorial analysis revealed that complement C3b deficiency increased the risk of mortality by nearly two-fold [hazard ratio (HR)=2.23; 95% CI=1.20-4.14; P=0.017], whilst complement C4d deficiency similarly increased the risk of mortality by two-fold (HR=2.14; 95% CI=1.14-4.00; P=0.012). The variables were subsequently screened using Cox model to construct a prediction model based on complement C3b and C4d levels before a Nomogram plotted. By internal validation for the 132 patients, the Nomogram accurately estimated the risk of mortality, with a corrected C-index of 0.810. External validation of the model in another 50 patients from Sichuan Cancer Hospital revealed an accuracy of 77.0%. Overall, this mortality risk prediction model constructed based on complement levels showed accuracy in assessing the prognosis of patients with metastatic NSCLC. Therefore, complement C3b and C4d have potential for use as biomarkers to predict the risk of mortality in such patients.

Development and Validation of a Novel Hypoxia Score for Predicting Prognosis and Immune Microenvironment in Rectal Cancer

Hypoxia plays a major role in various tumor types. However, few studies have concentrated on the prognostic model of hypoxia-related genes in rectal cancer and the effect of hypoxia on neutrophil-mediated immunosuppression. We performed Kaplan–Meier analysis, random survival forest analysis, and Cox regression analysis on 342 hypoxia-related genes, constructed hypoxia score in the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) cohort, and verified them in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort. Then the patients were divided into two groups according to the risk level. The overall survival rate of the high-risk (HRisk) group was significantly higher than that of the low-risk (LRisk) group (GEO, p < 0.001; TCGA, p = 0.016). Through receiver operating characteristic and decision curve analysis, the nomogram based on hypoxia score has excellent prediction ability. Functional enrichment analysis showed that hypoxia, metastasis, inflammation, immunity, and other related pathways were enriched. The HRisk group was associated with lower tumor purity, higher immune and stromal score, higher neutrophils, and lower activated memory CD4 + T cells. More importantly, the checkpoint of neutrophil-mediated immunosuppression increased in the HRisk group. In conclusion, a hypoxia score based on 5 hypoxia-related genes can be used to predict the prognosis of rectal cancer and ANLN with a cancer-suppressing effect and SRPX (Sushi Repeat Containing Protein X-Linked) with a cancer-promoting effect may be potential therapeutic targets for rectal cancer.

Clinicopathologic characteristics and prognosis of synchronous colorectal cancer: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The clinical characteristics of synchronous colorectal cancer (SCRC) reported in previous studies differ significantly. Furthermore, little is known about the characteristics of early-onset synchronous colorectal cancer (EO-SCRC). The aim of this retrospective study was to identify the clinicopathological characteristics of SCRC and EO-SCRC and define their relevant prognostic factors.

METHODS

Patients who underwent surgery for SCRC and primary unifocal colorectal cancer (PCRC) between January 2007 and December 2020 were included in this study. The clinical, histological, and molecular characteristics of the patient's tumours were analysed. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to assess the association between clinicopathological factors and patient survival.

RESULTS

A total of 1554 patients were included in the analysis. Of these, 1132 (72.84%) had PCRC and 422 (27.16%) had SCRC. SCRC occurred more frequently in the elderly (P < 0.001) and in male patients (P = 0.002). The 5-year OS rate was 73.7% ± 2.0% for PCRC and 61.9% ± 3.9% for SCRC (P < 0.05). However, the Cox regression analysis showed that SCRC was not an independent prognostic factor for the prediction of OS. A total of 64 patients (15.17%) in the SCRC group had early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), whereas 257 (22.70%) in the PCRC group had EOCRC (P = 0.001). The proportion of patients with deficient mismatch repair proteins (dMMR) in EO-SCRC subgroup was significantly higher than that in late-onset synchronous colorectal cancer (LO-SCRC) subgroup (23.44% vs. 10.34%, P = 0.006). Patients with EO-SCRC had more TNM stage IV (P < 0.001) and fewer opportunities for radical surgery (79.69% vs. 92.22%, P = 0.007) than those with early-onset primary unifocal colorectal cancer (EO-PCRC). There was no significant difference in 5-year OS between the EO-SCRC and LO-SCRC subgroups (P = 0.091) and between the EO-SCRC and EO-PCRC subgroups (P = 0.094). Multivariate analysis revealed that EOCRC was an independent good prognostic parameter for colorectal cancer (CRC) and SCRC.

CONCLUSION

For patients with operative treatment, EO-SCRC is different from LO-SCRC and EO-PCRC. Patients with SCRC show a poorer survival rate than those with PCRC. However, SCRC is not an independent prognostic factor for CRC, whereas EOCRC is a good prognostic factor for CRC and SCRC.

Design and verification of individualized follow-up strategy of colonoscopy for postoperative patients with colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines do not establish an individual scheme for surveillance colonoscopy in postoperative colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.

AIMS

The purpose of the study was to screen possible risk factors for the development of metachronous adenoma in postoperative CRC patients and to develop a risk prediction model and verify it.

METHODS

Consecutive postoperative patients with CRC were enrolled from April 2007 to December 2013 as the derivation group. Baseline data of patients and clinicopathological features of the tumor were collected, logistic regression analysis was performed, and clinical model was established and was verified internally. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort (validation group) from January 2014 to October 2017 in the same hospital.

RESULTS

A total of 734 patients were included, with average (64.6 ± 11.5) years old. The overall incidence of metachronous adenoma was 35.4%. There was no significant difference in the incidence of metachronous adenoma between the derivation group and validation group (P > 0.05). Age, diabetes mellitus, right colon cancer, moderately to poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma and synchronous adenoma were independent risk factors for metachronous adenoma. The C-index of the metachronous adenoma line chart model was 0.932, and the index decreased by 0.022 after internal verification. The C-index of external validation was 0.910. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the P value of metachronous adenoma risk prediction model was 0.247.

CONCLUSIONS

Individual surveillance strategies should be designed for postoperative patients with CRC. For high-risk patients, it is appropriate to undergo more than two colonoscopies in 36 months after operation.

Hazard function analysis for development of second primary colorectal cancer after surgery for primary colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Although history of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a known risk factor for developing second CRC, the optimal surveillance protocol has not been established. Using hazard function analysis to evaluate changes in the hazard rate for the development of second primary CRCs or high-grade adenomas (HGAs), we aimed to clarify when and on whom to focus in order to effectively identify second primary colorectal neoplasms after initial surgery for CRC.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 1823 consecutive patients with stage 0-III CRCs who underwent radical surgery between 2004 and 2015, and subsequent colonoscopic surveillance after surgery. The time-course changes in the risk rates for developing metachronous CRC and HGA after surgery were assessed.

RESULTS

A peak was observed at 1.22 years after surgery in the hazard function curve for secondary colorectal neoplasms, which decreased until 4 years, then plateaued. Older patients were at higher risk than younger patients, both showing a peak at 1 year. Another peak at 6 to 8 years was observed in younger patients. Male patients showed a higher risk than female patients, and patients with synchronous lesions showed a markedly higher hazard rate than those without, with two distinct peaks around 1 and 9 years after surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Intensive colonoscopic surveillance is recommended after surgery for CRC during the first 2 to 3 years, and if the patient is under 60 years old and has concomitant CRC or HGA, surveillance is also recommended at 6 to 8 years after surgery.

Low level of complement factor H increases the risk of cancer-related death in patients with small-cell lung cancer

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary cancer is a kind of deeply invasive tumour which is difficult to treat, and its mortality rate is high. Previous research has shown that activation of complement could contribute to the progression of non-small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). However, little research has been done on SCLC.

METHODS

Complement factor H (CFH), complements C3 as well as C4 were measured in patients, and the prognostic impact of different parameters was assessed by log-rank function analysis and Cox multifactor models. Besides, we constructed a predictive model based on complement fractions and validated the accuracy of the model.

RESULTS

Among these 242 patients, 200 (82.6%) died. The median survival time was 18.3 months. We found by multifactorial analysis that high levels of CFH decreased the risk of death (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.57, p<0.001), while elevated complement C4 displayed poor prognosis (HR 2.28, 95% CI 1.66 to 3.13, p<0.001). We screened variables by Cox models and constructed CFH-based prediction models to plot a nomogram by internal validation. The nomogram showed excellent accuracy in assessing the probability of death, yielding an adjusted C-statistics of 0.905.

CONCLUSIONS

CFH can be recognised as a biomarker to predict the risk of death in SCLC. The prediction model established based on CFH, C3 and C4 levels has good accuracy in patients' prognostic assessment.

Down-regulation of miR-219-5p increase the risk of cancer-related mortality in patients with prostate cancer

INTRODUCTION

Prostate cancer is a common malignancy in men that is difficult to treat and carries a high risk of death. miR-219-5p is expressed in reduced amounts in many malignancies. However, the prognostic value of miR-219-5p for patients with prostate cancer remains unclear.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed data from 213 prostate cancer patients from 10 June 2012 to 9 May 2015. Overall survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression models. Besides, a prediction model was constructed, and calibration curves evaluated the model's accuracy.

RESULTS

Of the 213 patients, a total of 72 (33.8%) died and the median survival time was 60.0 months. We found by multifactorial analysis that miR-219-5p deficiency increased the risk of death by nearly fourfold (HR: 3.86, 95% CI): 2.01 to 7.44, p<0.001) and the risk of progression by twofold (HR: 2.79, 95% CI: 1.68 to 4.64, p<0.001). To quantify each covariate's weight on prognosis, we screened variables by cox model to construct a predictive model. The Nomogram showed excellent accuracy in estimating death's risk, with a corrected C-index of 0.778.

CONCLUSIONS

miR-219-5p can be used as a biomarker to predict death risk in prostate cancer patients. The mortality risk prediction model constructed based on miR-219-5p has good consistency and validity in assessing patient prognosis.

Risk factors of advanced metachronous neoplasms in surveillance after colon cancer resection

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Regular surveillance colonoscopy after colon cancer resection is recommended for detecting metachronous adenoma and cancer. However, risk factors for metachronous neoplasms have not been fully evaluated. We aimed to assess risk factors for advanced metachronous neoplasms during surveillance colonoscopy after colon cancer resection.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative colectomy for nonmetastatic colon cancer between January 2002 and December 2012 were evaluated and followed up to December 2017.

RESULTS

A total of 293 patients were enrolled in this study. Among these, 179 (61.1%) were male, and the mean age was 63.2 ± 10.4 years. On perioperative clearing colonoscopy, synchronous high-risk adenomas (number ≥ 3, size ≥ 10 mm, high-grade dysplasia, villous histology, and serrated adenoma ≥ 10 mm) were detected in 95 patients (32.4%), and they were significantly associated with male sex, old age (≥ 65 years), current alcohol consumption, and current smoking (p < 0.05). During the follow-up period (mean 74.4 ± 36.4 months), advanced metachronous neoplasms were found in 45 patients (15.4%), including metachronous cancer in four (1.4%). In multivariate analysis, distal colon cancer (distal-to-splenic flexure; odds ratio [OR], 4.402; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.658 to 11.689; p = 0.003), synchronous highrisk adenomas (OR, 3.225; 95% CI, 1.503 to 6.918; p = 0.003), and hypertension (OR, 2.270; 95% CI, 1.058 to 4.874; p = 0.035) were significant risk factors for advanced metachronous neoplasms.

CONCLUSION

During surveillance after curative colon cancer resection, patients with distal colon cancer, synchronous high-risk adenomas, and hypertension may need meticulous follow-up to improve overall outcomes.

Second primary cancers and recurrence in patients after resection of colorectal cancer: An integrated analysis of trials by Japan Clinical Oncology Group: JCOG1702A

BACKGROUND

Improvements in early detection and treatment have resulted in an increasing number of long-term survivors of colorectal cancer (CRC). For the survivors, second primary cancer and recurrence are important issues; however, evidence for an appropriate surveillance strategy remains limited.This study aimed to investigate the frequency and timing of second primary cancer in patients after surgery for exploring an appropriate surveillance strategy by using an integrated analysis of three large-scale randomized controlled trials in Japan.

METHODS

The eligibility criteria of three trials included histologically confirmed CRC and having received surgery. The timing, site and frequency of second primary cancers and recurrence were investigated. Risk factors associated with second primary cancers were also examined. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of second primary cancers compared with the national database of the Japan Cancer Registry was estimated.

RESULTS

A total of 2824 patients were included in this study. The cumulative incidence of second primary cancer increased over time. The SIR of any second primary cancer was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.94-1.21). The SIR for second primary cancers of colon was 1.09 (95% CI: 0.79-1.47). The cumulative incidence of recurrence almost reached plateau at 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A common surveillance strategy for the general population can be applied even for curatively resected CRC patients, as the risk of second primary cancers was almost the same as that of the general population.

Predictive nomograms for oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma applying the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union Internationale Contre le Cancer 8th edition staging system

BACKGROUND

Nomograms applying the 8th edition of the TNM staging system aimed at predicting overall (OS), disease-specific (DSS), locoregional recurrence-free (LRRFS) and distant recurrence-free survivals (DRFS) for oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) are still lacking.

METHODS

A training cohort of 438 patients with OTSCC was retrospectively enrolled from a single institution. An external validation set of 287 patients was retrieved from two independent institutions.

RESULTS

Internal validation of the multivariable models for OS, DSS, DRFS and LRRFS showed a good calibration and discrimination results with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.74, 0.75, 0.77 and 0.70, respectively. The external validation confirmed the good performance of OS, DSS and DRFS models (c-index 0.73 and 0.77, and 0.73, respectively) and a fair performance of the LRRFS model (c-index 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomograms herein presented can be implemented as useful tools for prediction of OS, DSS, DRFS and LRRFS in OTSCC.

Geographical heterogeneity in the American Joint committee on Cancer oral cancer staging and prognostic implications

OBJECTIVES

The AJCC 8th edition (AJCC 8) has introduced depth of invasion (DOI) and extranodal extension (ENE) into staging for oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Although validations have been performed on institutional datasets have shown a good performance, particularly in early OSCC, there have been no studies on diverse patient populations that determine the impact on prognostic heterogeneity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 4710 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) treated with surgery +/- adjuvant therapy in 8 institutions in Australia, North America and Asia. With overall survival (OS) as endpoint, the prognostic performance of AJCC 7th and 8th editions were compared using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Harrell's concordance index (C-index).

RESULTS

When comparing AJCC 8 to AJCC 7, the heterogeneity in prediction of OS increased for T-category and N-category while remaining unchanged for TNM staging, suggesting AJCC 8 increased complexity with no improvement in predictive value. There were significant differences in median DOI and incidence of ENE between geographical regions, resulting in dissimilar rates of stage-migration when adopting AJCC 8.

CONCLUSION

In an attempt to improve prognostic performance, AJCC 8 introduced more variables; however heterogeneity in these results in significant geographical differences in model discrimination and performance. Caution should be applied as this may result in inaccurate and unreliable prognostic predictions that may impact treatment recommendations.

Systematic construction and validation of an epithelial-mesenchymal transition risk model to predict prognosis of lung adenocarcinoma

Epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) has been shown to be linked to a poor prognosis, particularly in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer. Nevertheless, little is known regarding the existence of EMT-related gene signatures and their prognostic values in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD). In the current study, we systematically profiled the mRNA expression data of patients with LUAD in The Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus databases using a total of 1,184 EMT-related genes. The prognostic values of the EMT-related genes used to develop risk score models for overall survival were determined using LASSO and Cox regression analyses. A prognostic signature that consisted of nine unique EMT-related genes was generated using a training set. A nomogram, incorporating this EMT-related gene signature and clinical features of patients with LUAD, was constructed for potential clinical use. Calibration plots, decision-making curves, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that this model had a good ability to predict the survival of patients with LUAD. The EMT-associated gene signature and prognostic nomogram established in this study were reliable in predicting the survival of patients with LUAD. Thus, we first identified a novel EMT-related gene signature and developed a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with LUAD.

Complement sC5b-9 and CH50 increase the risk of cancer-related mortality in patients with non-small cell lung cancer

Objectives: Immunologic dysfunction occurred in most of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), which worsened the overall survival (OS) of patients. Complement activation plays a significant role in abnormal activation of immune system. However, the prognostic value of complement components such as CH50 and sC5b-9 in NSCLC patients remains unclear. This study evaluated the risk factors of NSCLC and created a prediction model.

Methods: A real-world study was conducted including data from 928 patients with NSCLC between April 1, 2005 and June 1, 2015. CH50 and sC5b-9 were recorded during the admission. Cox proportional hazard model was applied for survival analyses and for assessing risk factors of cancer-related mortality and to create a nomogram for prediction. The accuracy of the model was evaluated by C-index and calibration curve.

Results: In this study, the mortality in group with high CH50 level (≥ 480.56 umol/L) was 92.0%. Based on univariate analysis, we put factors (P <0.05) into a multivariate regression model, patients with high CH50 level (P <0.001, HR=1.59) and sC5b-9 >1422.18 μmol/L (P <0.001, HR=2.28) remained statistically factors for worsened OS and regarded as independent risk factors. These independently associated risk factors were applied to establish an OS estimation nomogram. Nomogram revealed good accuracy in estimating the risk, with a bootstrap-corrected C index of 0.741.

Conclusion: sC5b-9 and CH50 increased the risk of cancer-related mortality in patients with NSCLC. Nomogram based on multivariate analysis demonstrated good accuracy in estimating the risk of overall mortality.

A Novel Diagnostic Nomogram for Noninvasive Evaluating Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection

Objective

To establish a novel nomogram for diagnosing liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and verify the diagnostic performance of the established nomogram.

Methods

Patients with chronic HBV infection who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled in this retrospective study; 70% and 30% of patients were randomly assigned to training dataset and validation dataset, respectively. The risk factors for liver fibrosis were screened using the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Based on the results, a nomogram was established and verified.

Results

508 patients with chronic HBV infection were included in this study (n = 355 for training dataset and n = 153 for validation dataset). The logistic regression analysis showed that liver stiffness measurement (LSM), platelet (PLT) count, and prothrombin time (PT) were independent risk factors for liver fibrosis (P < 0.01), which were used to establish the nomogram. The consistency index (C-index) of the nomogram established for diagnosing liver fibrosis was 0.875. The calibration line and the ideal line were consistent, which indicated that diagnosis of liver fibrosis by the established model was accurate. The values of area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUROC) for diagnosing liver fibrosis by the nomogram were 0.857 and 0.862 in the training dataset and validation dataset, respectively, which were noticeably higher than those in the well-known serological models, including the aspartate aminotransferase- (AST-) to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scoring model, fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scoring model, APAG model (including age, PT, albumin, and γ-glutamyl transferase), and S-index model (all P < 0.05).

Conclusion

LSM, PT, and PLT were found as independent risk factors for liver fibrosis. The established nomogram exhibited an excellent diagnostic performance, and it can more visually and individually evaluate the probability of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic HBV infection.

Development and validation of nomograms for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients of colorectal cancer

PURPOSE

Nomograms are intuitive tools for individualized cancer prognosis. We sought to develop a clinical nomogram for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival for patients with colorectal cancer.

METHODS

Patients with colorectal cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2006 and those who underwent surgery were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into the training (n = 119 797) and validation (n = 119 797) cohorts. Log-rank and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used in our analysis. To find out death from other cancer causes and non-cancer causes, a competing-risks model was used, based on which we integrated these significant prognostic factors into nomograms and subjected the nomograms to bootstrap internal validation and to external validation.

RESULTS

The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year probabilities of overall survival in patients of colorectal cancer after surgery intervention were 83.04, 65.54, 54.79 and 38.62%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year cancer-specific survival was 87.36, 73.44, 66.22 and 59.11%, respectively. Nine independent prognostic factors for overall survival and nine independent prognostic factors for cancer specific survival were included to build the nomograms. Internal and external validation CI indexes of overall survival were 0.722 and 0.721, and those of cancer-specific survival were 0.765 and 0.766, which was satisfactory.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomograms for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with colorectal cancer. Performance of the model was excellent. This practical prognostic model may help clinicians in decision-making and design of clinical studies.

Prognostic value of a hypoxia-related microRNA signature in patients with colorectal cancer

Hypoxia has been particularly associated with poor prognosis in cancer patients. Recent studies have suggested that hypoxia-related miRNAs play a critical role in various cancers, including colorectal cancer (CRC). In the present study, we found 52 differentially expressed miRNAs in HT-29 cells under hypoxic conditions versus normoxic conditions by analyzing the profiles of miRNAs. Using Cox model, we developed a hypoxia-related miRNA signature consisting of four miRNAs, which could successfully discriminate high-risk patients in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) training cohort (n=381). The prognostic value of this signature was further confirmed in the TCGA testing cohort (n=190) and an independent validation cohort composed of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded clinical CRC samples (n=220), respectively. Multivariable Cox regression and stratified survival analysis revealed this signature was an independent prognostic factor for CRC patients. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of this signature was significantly larger than that of any other clinical risk factors or single miRNA alone. A nomogram was constructed for clinical use, which incorporated both the miRNA signature and clinical risk factors and performed well in the calibration plots. Collectively, this novel hypoxia-related miRNA signature was an independent prognostic factor, and it possessed a stronger predictive power in identifying high-risk CRC patients than currently used clinicopathological features.

Prognostic Factors and Nomograms to Predict Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival for Children with Wilms' Tumor

Objective

This study is aimed at constructing and verifying nomograms that forecast overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of children with Wilms' tumor (WT).

Patients and methods

Clinical information of 1613 WT patients who were under 18 years old between 1988 and 2010 was collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Using these data, we performed univariate as well as multivariate Cox's regression analyses to determine independent prognostic factors for WT. Then, nomograms to predict 3- and 5-year OS and CSS rates were constructed based on the identified prognostic factors. The nomograms were validated externally and internally. The nomograms' reliability was evaluated utilizing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and concordance indices (C-indices).

Results

1613 WT patients under 18 were involved in the study and randomly divided into the training (n = 1210) and validation (n = 403) cohorts. Age at diagnosis, tumor laterality, tumor size, tumor stage, and use of surgery were determined as independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS in WT and were further applied to construct prognostic nomograms. The C-index and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) revealed the great performance of our nomograms. Internal and external calibration plots also showed excellent agreement between actual survival and nomogram prediction.

Conclusion

Precise and convenient nomograms were developed for forecasting OS and CSS of children with WT. These nomograms were able to offer accurate and individualized prognosis and assisted clinicians in performing suitable therapy.

Nomograms for pre- and postoperative prediction of long-term survival among proximal gastric cancer patients: A large-scale, single-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of proximal gastric cancer (GC) is increasing, and methods for the prediction of the long-term survival of proximal GC patients have not been well established.

AIM

To develop nomograms for the prediction of long-term survival among proximal GC patients.

METHODS

Between January 2007 and June 2013, we prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 746 patients with proximal GC, who were divided into a training set (n = 560, 75%) and a validation set (n = 186, 25%). A Cox regression analysis was used to identify the preoperative and postoperative risk factors for overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Among the 746 patients examined, the 3- and 5-year OS rates were 66.1% and 58.4%, respectively. In the training set, preoperative T stage (cT), N stage (cN), CA19-9, tumor size, ASA core, and 3- to 6-mo weight loss were incorporated into the preoperative nomogram to predict the OS. In addition to these variables, lymphatic vascular infiltration (LVI), postoperative tumor size, T stage, N stage, blood transfusions, and complications were incorporated into the postoperative nomogram. All calibration curves used to determine the OS probability fit well. In the training set, the preoperative nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.751 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.732-0.770] in predicting OS and accurately stratified the patients into four prognostic subgroups (5-year OS rates: 86.8%, 73.0%, 43.72%, and 20.9%, P < 0.001). The postoperative nomogram had a C-index of 0.758 in predicting OS and accurately stratified the patients into four prognostic subgroups (5-year OS rates: 82.6%, 74.3%, 45.9%, and 18.9%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The nomograms accurately predicted the pre- and postoperative long-term survival of proximal GC patients.

Nomograms to predict survival of stage IV tongue squamous cell carcinoma after surgery

To develop clinical nomograms for prediction of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with stage IV tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) after surgery based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database.We collected data of resected stage IV TSCC patients from the SEER database, and divided them into the training set and validation set by 7:3 randomly. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression analysis were adopted to distinguish independent risk factors for OS and CSS. Clinical nomograms were constructed to predict the 3-year and 5-year probabilities of OS and CSS for individual patients. Calibration curves and Harrell C-indices were used for internal and external validation.A total of 1550 patients with resected stage IV TSCC were identified. No statistical differences were detected between the training and validation sets. Age, race, marital status, tumor site, AJCC T/N/M status, and radiotherapy were recognized as independent prognostic factors associated with OS as well as CSS. Then nomograms were developed based on these variables. The calibration curves displayed a good agreement between the predicted and actual values of 3-year and 5-year probabilities for OS and CSS. The C-indices predicting OS were corrected as 0.705 in the training set, and 0.664 in the validation set. As for CSS, corrected C-indices were 0.708 in the training set and 0.663 in the validation set.The established nomograms in this study exhibited good accuracy and effectiveness to predict 3-year and 5-year probabilities of OS and CSS in resected stage IV TSCC patients. They are useful tools to evaluate survival outcomes and helped choose appropriate treatment strategies.

Nomograms for predicting survival outcomes in patients with primary tracheal tumors: a large population-based analysis

Background

The aim of this study was to develop and validate reliable nomograms to predict individual overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with primary tracheal tumors and further estimate the role of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) for these entities.

Patients and methods

A total of 405 eligible patients diagnosed between 1988 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. All of them were randomly divided into training (n=303) and validation (n=102) sets. For the purpose of establishing nomograms, the Akaike information criterion was employed to select significant prognostic factors in multivariate Cox regression models. Both internal and external validations of the nomograms were evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. Propensity score matching (PSM) method was performed to reduce the influence of selection bias between the PORT group and the non-PORT group.

Results

Two nomograms shared common variables including age at diagnosis, histology, N and M stages, tumor size, and treatment types, while gender was only incorporated in the CSS nomogram. The C-indices of OS and CSS nomograms were 0.817 and 0.813, displaying considerable predictive accuracy. The calibration curves indicated consistency between the nomograms and the actual observations. When the nomograms were applied to the validation set, the results remained reconcilable. Moreover, the nomograms showed superiority over the Bhattacharyya’s staging system with regard to the C-indices. After PSM, PORT was not associated with significantly better OS or CSS. Only squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) patients in the PORT group had improved OS compared to non-PORT group.

Conclusion

The first two nomograms for predicting survival in patients with primary tracheal tumors were proposed in the present study. PORT seems to improve the prognosis of SCC patients, which needs further exploration.

Various clinicopathological features of patients with metachronous colorectal cancer in relation to different diagnostic intervals

BACKGROUNDS

Clinicopathologic factors relating to developing metachronous colorectal cancer (CRC) have been reported. However, the effects of different diagnostic intervals on these risk factors required further analysis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study comprised 14,481 patients diagnosed from January 1995 to December 2012. Metachronous CRC was defined as the occurrence of a second colorectal cancer at least 1 year post-operatively.

RESULTS

A total of 153 (1.06%) patients developed metachronous CRCs during the follow-up. Significantly higher rates of developing metachronous cancer occurred in male patients (1.2 vs 0.9%), patients with synchronous CRC (2.0 vs 1.0%), and patients with a positive family history of CRC (1.4 vs 0.9%). Pertaining to diagnostic intervals related to clinicopathological features, more severe staging was significant in the diagnostic interval between 2 and 3 years (35 vs 7.7%, 20.6%, 17.5%, P = .01) compared with other intervals. Male patients were more frequently detected to have CRC within 3 years compared with females (53.1 vs 29.1%, P = .005). For a diagnostic interval ≧ 5 years, a significantly higher rate of metachronous CRC located at the right colon was observed than that located at the left colon (36.6 vs 19.7%, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

We evinced that a diagnostic interval between 2 and 3 years was a key time for metachronous CRC diagnosis with worse staging distribution. Based on current findings, we recommend the stratification of metachronous CRCs into diagnostic intervals of 1-2, 2-3, and ≧ 3 years, as they exhibit significantly different characteristics.

Lymph nodes ratio based nomogram predicts survival of resectable gastric cancer regardless of the number of examined lymph nodes

To develop a nomogram to predict the prognosis of gastric cancer patients on the basis of metastatic lymph nodes ratio (mLNR), especially in the patients with total number of examined lymph nodes (TLN) less than 15. The nomogram was constructed based on a retrospective database that included 2,205 patients underwent curative resection in Cancer Center, Sun Yat-sen University (SYSUCC). Resectable gastric cancer (RGC) patients underwent curative resection before December 31, 2008 were assigned as the training set (n=1,470) and those between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2012 were selected as the internal validation set (n=735). Additional external validations were also performed separately by an independent data set (n=602) from Jiangxi Provincial Cancer Hospital (JXCH) in Jiangxi, China and a data set (n=3,317) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Independent risk factors were identified by Multivariate Cox Regression. In the SYSUCC set, TNM (Tumor-node-metastasis) and TRM-based (Tumor-Positive Nodes Ratio-Metastasis) nomograms were constructed respectively. The TNM-based nomogram showed better discrimination than the AJCC-TNM staging system (C-index: 0.73 versus 0.69, p<0.01). When the mLNR was included in the nomogram, the C-index increased to 0.76. Furthermore, the C-index in the TRM-based nomogram was similar between TLN ≥16 (C-index: 0.77) and TLN ≤15 (C-index: 0.75). The discrimination was further ascertained by internal and external validations. We developed and validated a novel TRM-based nomogram that provided more accurate prediction of survival for gastric cancer patients who underwent curative resection, regardless of the number of examined lymph nodes.

Left-Sided Colectomy: One of the Important Risk Factors of Metachronous Colorectal Adenoma After Colectomy for Colon Cancer

BACKGROUND

Patients with a history of colonic resection for cancer have an increased risk for the development of metachronous malignant lesions. However, there is a lack of data on the detection rates of premalignant lesions during colonoscopy surveillance in these patients, and the few existing studies have shown conflicting results.

AIMS

To identify the risk factor of metachronous premalignant lesions after colon cancer surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively screened consecutive patients who had undergone colonic surgery to treat colon cancer at the Chungnam National University Hospital between September 2009 and April 2014. We measured polyp, adenoma, and advanced adenoma detection rates (PDR, ADR, AADR) from the second surveillance colonoscopy in patients with left-sided colectomy (LCR) or right-sided colectomy (RCR). Multivariate analysis was performed to adjust for other confounding factors.

RESULTS

A total of 348 patients were enrolled (220 LCR patients and 128 RCR patients). The PDR, ADR, and AADR in patients in the LCR and RCR groups were 56.4, 43.6, and 11.8% and 35.9, 26.6, and 9.4%, respectively. PDR and ADR in the LCR group were significantly higher than those in the RCR group. A multivariate analysis showed that male sex, hypertension, body mass index higher than 25, and LCR (odds ratio 2.090; 95% confidence interval 1.011-4.317) were associated with adenoma recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

The LCR group had a higher adenoma recurrence rate than the RCR group. Further studies are required to determine the optimal surveillance intervals according to the type of colonic resection.

Nomograms predict long-term survival for patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy is diverse and not yet clearly illustrated. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram to predict individual risk of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy.

METHODS

A total of 205 patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy were retrospectively included. OS and PFS were evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Two nomograms for predicting OS and PFS were established, and the predictive accuracy was measured by the concordance index (Cindex) and calibration plots.

RESULTS

Lymph node ratio (LNR), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and anatomical location were incorporated into the nomogram for OS prediction and LNR, CA19-9; anatomical location and tumor differentiation were incorporated into the nomogram for PFS prediction. All calibration plots for the probability of OS and PFS fit well. The Cindexes of the nomograms for OS and PFS prediction were 0.678 and 0.68, respectively. The OS and PFS survival times were stratified significantly using the nomogram-predicted survival probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The present nomograms for OS and PFS prediction can provide valuable information for tailored decision-making for patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy.

A Novel Risk prediction Model for Patients with Combined Hepatocellular-Cholangiocarcinoma

Backgrounds: Regarding the difficulty of CHC diagnosis and potential adverse outcomes or misuse of clinical therapies, an increasing number of patients have undergone liver transplantation, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) or other treatments.

Objective: To construct a convenient and reliable risk prediction model for identifying high-risk individuals with combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (CHC).

Methods: 3369 patients who underwent surgical resection for liver cancer at Zhongshan Hospital were enrolled in this study. The epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the patients were collected at the time of tumor diagnosis. Variables (P <0.25 in the univariate analyses) were evaluated using backward stepwise method. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess model discrimination. Calibration was performed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and a calibration curve. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrapping approach.

Results: Among the entire study population, 250 patients (7.42%) were pathologically defined with CHC. Age, HBcAb, red blood cells (RBC), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), AFP, CEA and portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) were included in the final risk prediction model (area under the curve, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.77). Bootstrapping validation presented negligible optimism. When the risk threshold of the prediction model was set at 20%, 2.73% of the patients diagnosed with liver cancer would be diagnosed definitely, which could identify CHC patients with 12.40% sensitivity, 98.04% specificity, and a positive predictive value of 33.70%.

Conclusions: Herein, the study established a risk prediction model which incorporates the clinical risk predictors and CT/MRI-presented PVTT status that could be adopted to facilitate the diagnosis of CHC patients preoperatively.

Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram for gastric cancer using the national cancer registry

A nomogram based on both western and eastern populations to estimate the Disease Specific Survival (DSS) of resectable gastric cancer (RGC) has not been established. In current study, we retrospectively analyzed 4,379 RGC patients who underwent curative resection from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2009 were assigned as training set (n= 2,770), and the rest were selected as SEER validation set (n= 1,609). An external validation was performed by a set of independent 1,358 RGC patients after D2 resection from Sun Yat–sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) in China. The nomogram was constructed based on the training set. The multivariate analysis identified that patient's age at diagnosis, race, tumor location, grade, depth of invasion, metastatic lymph node stage (mLNS) and total number of examined lymph node (TLN) were associated with patient's DSS. The discrimination of this nomogram was superior to that of the 7th edition of AJCC staging system in SEER validation set and SYSUCC validation set (0.73 versus 0.70, p=0.005; 0.76 versus 0.72, p=0.005; respectively). Calibration plots of the nomogram showed that the probability of DSS corresponded to actual observation closely. In conclusion, our nomogram resulted in more–reliable prognostic prediction for RGC patients in general population.

Nomograms for prediction of long-term survival in elderly patients after partial hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Partial hepatectomy is an important treatment for elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. However, prediction of long-term outcomes of an individual elderly patient after partial hepatectomy still is lacking. This study aimed to develop 2 nomograms to pre- or postoperatively predict overall survival for these patients.

METHODS

Of the 528 elderly patients (aged ≥65 years) who underwent partial hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital between 2008 and 2011, 425 patients served as a training cohort to develop pre- and postoperative nomograms, and the remaining 103 patients comprised a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for univariate and multivariable analyses of tumor recurrence and overall survival. Discrimination and calibration of the models were measured using the concordance index, calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

Based on preoperative data, the independent risk factors of overall survival were age ≥75 years, Charlson score, α-fetoprotein ≥20 μg/L, hepatitis B virus-deoxyribonucleic acid ≥10⁴ IU/mL, and tumor diameter. Based on postoperative data, nonanatomic hepatectomy, absence of tumor encapsulation, and presence of microvascular invasion were additional independent risk factors. These independent predictors were incorporated into the pre- and postoperative nomograms, respectively. The concordance indexes of the 2 nomograms for overall survival prediction were 0.70 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.74) and 0.72 (0.69-0.78), respectively. Both nomograms accurately predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival probability, and their predictive performances were optimally validated.

CONCLUSION

The proposed 2 nomograms showed good individualized predictive performance in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma before and after partial hepatectomy.

Use of a nomogram to predict the closure rate of diverting ileostomy after low anterior resection: A retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Although temporary ileostomy is widely used to prevent complications due to anastomotic leakage after middle and low rectal cancer surgery, some patients fail to achieve stoma closure after primary surgery. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for permanent stoma following low anterior resection (LAR) or intersphincteric resection (ISR) with a temporary ileostomy for rectal cancer, while focusing on the time course, to develop a nomogram that can predict the rate of unreversed ileostomy 1 year after initial surgery.

METHOD

A total of 212 consecutive rectal cancer patients who underwent LAR or ISR with or without a temporary stoma between 2012 and 2015 at the University of Tokyo Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Data analyses were performed using JMP Pro 11.0 and R 3.0.1 with rms and Hmisc packages to identify the risk factors for diverting ileostomy resulting in un-reversed stoma, and to develop a nomogram using these factors.

RESULTS

Among 212 patients, diverting ileostomy and colostomy were performed in 116 and 11 patients, respectively, and a stoma was not created in 85 patients. Among the ileostomy cases, 94 underwent stoma reversal, and the median interval from initial surgery to stoma closure was 6.9 months. Three patients eventually underwent stoma re-creation, and hence, 25 patients had permanent stoma. The following variables were correlated with the stoma non-reversal rate and were included in the nomogram: depth of invasion (p = 0.02), presence of metastatic organs (p = 0.07), and preoperative chemoradiotherapy (p = 0.03). The nomogram C-index was 0.612, indicating moderate predictive ability.

CONCLUSIONS

The most common factors preventing stoma closure included distant metastasis or rectal cancer recurrence. The nomogram developed in the present study can help identify rectal cancer patients with high risk of stoma non-reversal.

Prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization following curative resection

Adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a major option for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with recurrence risk factors. However, individualized predictive models for subgroup of these patients are limited. This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with HCC underwent adjuvant TACE following curative resection.A cohort comprising 144 HCC patients who received adjuvant TACE following curative resection in the Zhongshan Hospital were analyzed. The nomogram was formulated based on independent prognostic indicators for overall survival (OS). The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and compared with the conventional staging systems. The results were validated in an independent cohort of 86 patients with the same inclusion criteria.Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), hyper-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), incomplete tumor encapsulation, and double positive staining of Cytokeratin 7 and Cytokeratin 19 on tumor cells were identified as independent predictors for OS. The C-indices of the nomogram for OS prediction in the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.787 (95%CI 0.775-0.799) and 0.714 (95%CI 0.695-0.733), respectively. In both the training and validation cohorts, the calibration plot showed good consistency between the nomogram-predicted and the observed survival. Furthermore, the established nomogram was superior to the conventional staging systems in terms of C-index and clinical net benefit on DCA.The proposed nomogram provided an accurate prediction on risk stratification for HCC patients underwent adjuvant TACE following curative resection.

Tailored Treatment of Colorectal Cancer: Surgical, Molecular, and Genetic Considerations

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a complex cancer disease, and approximately 40% of the surgically cured patients will experience cancer recurrence within 5 years. During recent years, research has shown that CRC treatment should be tailored to the individual patient due to the wide variety of risk factors, genetic factors, and surgical complexity. In this review, we provide an overview of the considerations that are needed to provide an individualized, patient-tailored treatment. We emphasize the need to assess the predictors of CRC, and we summarize the latest research on CRC genetics and immunotherapy. Finally, we provide a summary of the significant variations in the colon and rectal anatomy that is important to consider in an individualized surgical approach. For the individual patient with CRC, a tailored treatment approach is needed in the preoperative, operative, and postoperative phase.

Risk factors for metachronous adenoma in the residual colon of patients undergoing curative surgery for colorectal cancer

PURPOSE

Adenoma detection in colorectal cancer survivors is poorly characterised with insufficient evidence to inform frequency of surveillance schedule. The aim of this study was to examine adenoma incidence and recurrence in patients who have undergone colorectal cancer resection with curative intent. Survival outcomes were compared to determine if the presence of adenomas could be used to identify patients at higher risk of local recurrence.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational cohort study at a single tertiary institution between 2006 and 2012. Five hundred fifteen consecutive patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer who had preoperative colonoscopy and curative surgery were included (median follow-up 56 months (36-75 months).

RESULTS

In total, 352/515 (68%) patients underwent postoperative surveillance colonoscopy in the first 5 years after resection. Male gender was associated with greater risk of detecting synchronous adenoma at index colonoscopy or in the resection specimen (OR 2.35, p < 0.001). In the first 5 years after cancer surgery, synchronous adenoma, male gender and right sided primary tumour were independent predictors of metachronous lesions (OR 2.13, p = 0.009; OR 2.07, p = 0.027 and OR 2.34, p = 0.004, respectively). Presence of synchronous or metachronous adenoma had no impact upon incidence of local recurrence, overall or disease free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with synchronous adenoma remain at high risk of adenoma recurrence despite undergoing colonic resection and should be considered for early endoscopic surveillance. Men and those undergoing right-sided resection have a higher risk of metachronous adenoma in the long term and may benefit from more frequent endoscopic surveillance post resection.

Nomograms for Pre- and Postoperative Prediction of Long-term Survival for Patients Who Underwent Hepatectomy for Multiple Hepatocellular Carcinomas

OBJECTIVES

To develop prognostic nomograms for patients undergoing hepatectomy for multiple hepatocellular carcinomas (mHCCs).

BACKGROUND

The prognostic prediction after hepatectomy for mHCCs has not been well established.

METHODS

A training cohort (n = 540) was analyzed to construct 2 nomograms based separately on data obtained before and after hepatectomy for mHCCs at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital between 2000 and 2006. The internal and external validations were performed in 2 independent cohorts (n = 180 each) collected from the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital between 2007 and 2010 and the Sun Yat-Sen University between 2000 and 2007. The predictive accuracy was measured by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve.

RESULTS

Serum α-fetoprotein level, hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid load, end-stage liver disease score, tumor number, total tumor diameter, and the ratio of largest to smallest tumor diameter were incorporated into the preoperative nomogram for overall survival (OS) prediction. In addition to these variables, microvascular invasion, tumor capsule, type of hepatectomy, and local invasion/metastasis were incorporated into the postoperative nomogram. All calibration curves for probability of OS fitted well. In the training cohort, the preoperative nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.78) in predicting OS and accurately stratified patients into 4 prognostic subgroups (5-year OS rates: 65.9%, 46.3%, 29.6%, and 4.1%, P < 0.001). The postoperative nomogram had a C-index of 0.80, which was higher than those of the 4 conventional staging systems (0.53-0.62). These results were supported by the internal and external validations.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2 nomograms showed accurate pre- and postoperative prediction of posthepatectomy prognosis in patients with mHCCs.

Total caseload of a colorectal surgical unit: baseline measurement and identification of areas for efficiency gains

PURPOSE

Resource limitations are a concern in most modern public hospital systems. The aim of this study is to prospectively quantify the total caseload of a tertiary colorectal surgery unit to identify areas of redundancy.

METHODS

Data was collected prospectively at all points of clinical care (outpatient clinic, inpatient referrals, operating theatre and endoscopy) between March 2014 and March 2015 using specifically designed templates. The final data was analysed using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

During the study period, 4012 patient episodes were recorded: 2871 in outpatient clinic, 186 as emergency patient referrals, 541 at colonoscopy and 414 at surgery. The largest component of the caseload was made up primarily of colonoscopy results follow-up, protocol review for previous cancer or polyps and post-operative review. Sixty-eight percent of these episodes did not result in any active intervention such as further tests or surgery. Most new outpatient referrals were undifferentiated, with the most common indications being minor rectal bleeding, non-specific gastrointestinal symptoms, and minor non-bleeding anorectal problems. Of the new referrals, 56 % were booked for a colonoscopy, and only 13.3 % were booked directly for elective surgery.

CONCLUSION

A large component of the caseload of a tertiary colorectal surgery unit is made up of post-colonoscopy, post-operative, and surveillance protocol follow-up, with a significant proportion of patients not requiring any active intervention. The majority of new referrals are undifferentiated and result in a low rate of direct booking for operative intervention. Rationalisation of this resource using evidence-based methods could reduce redundancy, workload, and cost.

Ability of Serum C-Reactive Protein Concentrations to Predict Complications After Laparoscopy-Assisted Gastrectomy: A Prospective Cohort Study

Inflammatory markers, including C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell (WBC), are widely available in clinical practice. However, their predictive roles for infectious complications following laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy (LAG) have not been investigated. Our aim was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of CRP concentrations and WBC counts for early detection of infectious complications following LAG and to construct a nomogram for clinical decision-making.The clinical data of consecutive patients who underwent LAG with curative intent between December 2013 and March 2015 were prospectively collected. Postoperative complications were recorded according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The diagnostic value of CRP concentrations and WBC counts was evaluated by area under the curve of receiver-operating characteristic curves. Optimal cutoff values were determined by Youden index. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for complications, after which a nomogram was constructed.Twenty-nine of 278 patients (10.4%) who successfully underwent LAG developed major complications (grade ≥III). CRP concentration on postoperative day 3 (POD 3) and WBC count on POD 7 had the highest diagnostic accuracy for major complications with an area under the curve value of 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-0.92] and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.56-0.79) respectively. An optimal cutoff value of 172.0 mg/L was identified for CRP, yielding a sensitivity of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.60-0.92) and specificity 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.80). Multivariate analysis identified POD3 CRP concentrations ≥172.0 mg/L, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status ≥1, presence of preoperative comorbidity, and operation time ≥240 min as risk factors for major complications after LAG.The optimal cut-off value of CRP on POD3 to predict complications following LAG was 172.0 mg/L and a CRP-based nomogram may contribute to early detection of complications after LAG.

Nomograms for colorectal cancer: A systematic review

AIM

To assist in the selection of suitable nomograms for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinical practice.

METHODS

We conducted electronic searches for journal articles on colorectal cancer (CRC)-associated nomograms using the search terms colon/rectal/colorectal/nomogram. Of 174 articles initially found, we retrieved 28 studies in which a nomogram for CRC was developed.

RESULTS

We discuss the currently available CRC-associated nomograms, including those that predict the oncological prognosis, the short-term outcome of treatments, such as surgery or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, and the future development of CRC. Developing nomograms always presents a dilemma. On the one hand, the desire to cover as wide a patient range as possible tends to produce nomograms that are too complex and yet have C-indexes that are not sufficiently high. Conversely, confining the target patients might impair the clinical applicability of constructed nomograms.

CONCLUSION

The information provided in this review should be of use in selecting a nomogram suitable for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinical practice.

Detection of Polyps After Resection of Colorectal Cancer

Purpose

Because colonoscopy after colorectal cancer surgery is important for detecting synchronous or metachronous colorectal neoplasms, we designed this study to investigate, by using postoperative colonoscopy, the miss rate for and the location of polyps remaining after colorectal cancer surgery.

Methods

In a prospectively-collected patient database, 264 patients were shown to have undergone a colorectal cancer resection between May 2012 and June 2013. Of these, 116 who had received a complete colonoscopy preoperatively and postoperatively were included in this study.

Results

Of these 116 patients, 68 were males and 48 were females; their mean age was 63 years. The mean time after surgery at which postoperative colonoscopy was performed was 7.1 months (range, 3-15 months). On postoperative colonoscopy, a total of 125 polyps were detected. Of these, there were no cancerous lesions; 46 (36.8%) were neoplastic polyps, and 79 (63.2%) were nonneoplastic polyps. Fifty-nine polyps (47.2%) and 15 polyps (12%) were located in the proximal and the distal parts of the anastomosis, respectively. The miss rates for the total numbers of polyps and of neoplastic polyps remaining after surgery were 37.4% and 24.2%, respectively. The incidence of neoplastic polyps increased during postoperative colonoscopy as it had during preoperative colonoscopy (r = 0.164, P = 0.048).

Conclusion

Colonoscopic surveillance after colorectal cancer resection results in the detection of pathologic polyps in one-fourth of the cases. During postoperative colonoscopy, careful examination of the proximal colon is necessary. Patients in whom multiple neoplastic polyps had been detected during preoperative colonoscopy require careful and thorough follow-up.