Advantage of log odds of positive lymph nodes in prognostic evaluation of patients with early-onset colon cancer

BACKGROUND

Colon cancer (CC) is one of the most common cancers of the digestive tract, the third most common cancer worldwide, and the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths. Previous studies have demonstrated a higher risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in young patients with CC. It might be reasonable to treat patients with early-onset locally advanced CC with extended lymph node dissection. However, few studies have focused on early-onset CC (ECC) patients with LNM. At present, the methods of predicting and evaluating the prognosis of ECC patients with LNM are controversial.

AIM

To compare the prognostic values of four lymph node staging indices and establish the best nomogram for patients with ECC.

METHODS

From the data of patients with CC obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, data of young patients with ECC (≤ 50 years old) was screened. Patients with unknown data were excluded from the study, while the remaining patients were included. The patients were randomly divided into a training group (train) and a testing group (test) in the ratio of 7:3, while building the model. The model was constructed by the training group and verified by the testing group. Using multiple Cox regression models to compare the prediction efficiency of LNM indicators, nomograms were built based on the best model selected for overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS). In the two groups, the performance of the nomogram was evaluated by constructing a calibration plot, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis. Finally, the patients were grouped based on the risk score predicted by the prognosis model, and the survival curve was constructed after comparing the survival status of the high and low-risk groups.

RESULTS

Records of 26922 ECC patients were screened from the SEER database. N classification, positive lymph nodes (PLN), lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of PLN (LODDS) were considered to be independent predictors of OS and CSS. In addition, independent risk factors for OS included gender, race, marital status, primary site, histology, grade, T, and M classification, while the independent prognostic factors for CSS included race, marital status, primary site, grade, T, and M classification. The prediction model including LODDS is composed of minimal Akaike information criterion, maximal concordance indexes, and AUCs. Factors including gender, race, marital status, primary site, histology, grade, T, M classification, and LODDS were integrated into the OS nomogram, while race, marital status, primary site, grade, T, M classification, and LODDS were included into the CSS nomogram. The nomogram representing both cohorts had been successfully verified in terms of prediction accuracy and clinical practicability.

CONCLUSION

LODDS is superior to N-stage, PLN, and LNR of ECC. The nomogram containing LODDS might be helpful in tumor evaluation and clinical decision-making, since it provides an appropriate prediction of ECC.

Construction of the survival nomograms for colon cancer patients of different ages based on the SEER database

INTRODUCTION

Three nomograms for predicting the outcomes of early- and late-onset colon cancer (COCA) among patients not stratified by age were constructed using data in the Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (1975-2019). The accuracy of the nomogram was then assessed.

METHOD

Clinical data of 6107 patients with COCA were obtained from the SEER database. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate COX analyses of factors that could independently impact the prognosis of COCA were performed, and the corresponding nomograms for early-onset and late-onset COCA were constructed. Calibration curves, ROC curves, and C-index were used to determine the predictive accuracy. The discriminatory ability of the nomograms to assess their clinical utility, which was compared with the TNM staging system of the 8th edition of AJCC, was verified using survival analysis.

RESULT

Tumor primary site, ethnicity, and serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level significantly impacted the prognosis of colon cancer. Race, brain metastasis, and CEA were independent factors for predicting COCA prognosis. C-index, ROC, and calibration curves demonstrated that the three nomograms were accurate and superior to the traditional TNM staging system. Among the three nomograms, the early-onset COCA nomogram had the highest predictive accuracy, followed by that of colon cancer not stratified by age.

CONCLUSION

Three nomograms for patients not stratified by age, early-onset colon cancer, and late-onset colon cancer were constructed. The accuracies of the nomograms were good and were all superior to the conventional TNM staging system. The early- and late-onset COCA nomograms are useful for clinical management and individualized treatment of COCA patients at different ages.

Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for early-onset colon cancer in different tumor locations: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence of early-onset colon cancer (EOCC) among individuals below the age of 50 has shown a marked upward trend in recent years. The embryology, clinical symptoms, incidence, molecular pathways, and oncologic outcomes differ between right-sided and left-sided colon cancers. However, the differences have not been fully researched in EOCC. Our study aims to develop and validate prognostic nomograms predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for EOCC in different tumor locations based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Using the SEER database, a total of 5,588 patients with EOCC were extracted and divided into development and validation cohorts in a random allocation ratio of 7:3 across three groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors influencing OS and CSS outcomes. These factors were then utilized to construct nomogram models. The prognostic capabilities of the three models were assessed through various evaluation metrics, including the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and validation cohorts respectively. Additionally, survival curves of the low- and high-risk groups were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method together with the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Significant differences in clinical features were observed between right-sided and left-sided EOCCs, particularly in terms of OS (52 months vs 54 months) as demonstrated by Kaplan-Meier curves. Transverse-sided EOCCs exhibited clinical characteristics similar to right-sided EOCCs, suggesting a potential shared tumor microenvironment and therapeutic considerations. Advanced stage, liver metastasis, poor grade, elevated pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, chemotherapy, and perineural invasion were identified as independent prognostic factors across all three tumor locations and were incorporated into the nomogram model. Nomograms were constructed to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The C-index and calibration plots showed that the established nomograms had good consistency between actual clinical observations and predicted outcomes. ROC curves with calculated area under the curve (AUC) values exceeded 0.8 for all three groups in both the development and validation cohorts, indicating robust predictive performance for OS and CSS. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) plots revealed a threshold probability range of 0.1 to 0.9, within which the nomogram model exhibited maximum benefit. Kaplan-Meier curves exhibited significant differences between the low- and high-risk groups in EOCC for all three tumor locations in OS and CSS, further validating the prognostic value of the nomogram models.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully developed three precise nomogram models for EOCCs in different tumor locations, providing valuable support for clinicians in guiding clinical treatments and facilitating further prospective follow-up studies.

Organoid cultures of early-onset colorectal cancers reveal distinct and rare genetic profiles

OBJECTIVE

Sporadic early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) has bad prognosis, yet is poorly represented by cell line models. We examine the key mutational and transcriptomic alterations in an organoid biobank enriched in EOCRCs.

DESIGN

We established paired cancer (n=32) and normal organoids (n=18) from 20 patients enriched in microsatellite-stable EOCRC. Exome and transcriptome analysis was performed.

RESULTS

We observed a striking diversity of molecular phenotypes, including PTPRK-RSPO3 fusions. Transcriptionally, RSPO fusion organoids resembled normal colon organoids and were distinct from APC mutant organoids, with high BMP2 and low PTK7 expression. Single cell transcriptome analysis confirmed the similarity between RSPO fusion organoids and normal organoids, with a propensity for maturation on Wnt withdrawal, whereas the APC mutant organoids were locked in progenitor stages. CRISPR/Cas9 engineered mutation of APC in normal human colon organoids led to upregulation of PTK7 protein and suppression of BMP2, but less so with an engineered RNF43 mutation. The frequent co-occurrence of RSPO fusions with SMAD4 or BMPR1A mutation was confirmed in TCGA database searches. RNF43 mutation was found in organoid from a leukaemia survivor with a novel mutational signature; and organoids with POLE proofreading mutation displayed ultramutation. The cancer organoid genomes were stable over long culture periods, while normal human colon organoids tended to be subject to clonal dominance over time.

CONCLUSIONS

These organoid models enriched in EOCRCs with linked genomic data fill a gap in existing CRC models and reveal distinct genetic profiles and novel pathway cooperativity.

Select group of patients might benefit from early colonoscopic screening for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Recently, the American Cancer Society made a qualified recommendation to start colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at 45 years of age in all average-risk individuals. In this study, our primary aim is to calculate the prevalence and also evaluate the predictors of increased prevalence of detected adenomas in the 40-49-year-old individuals undergoing colonoscopy.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed using our endoscopy database. Study subjects included all 40-49-year-old patients undergoing their first colonoscopy at our institution from January 1, 2010 to September 30, 2017. Exclusion criteria included patients who underwent colonoscopy for overt gastrointestinal bleeding, inflammatory bowel disease, a history of familial adenomatous polyposis, hereditary non-polyposis CRC. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were performed to identify factors associated with increased adenoma detection rate (ADR).

RESULTS

A total of 2059 patients were included in the study, and 317 of these patients had family history (FH) of CRC. Patients with FH of CRC had significantly higher ADR (27.8% vs. 19.7%, p = 0.001) as compared to those without FH of CRC. There was no significant difference in ADR in patients between 40-44 years and 45-49 years of age (17.7% vs. 21.4%, p = 0.058). On a multivariate analysis while adjusting for multiple patient and procedural variables, FH of CRC, male sex, BMI > 30 kg/m², chronic kidney disease, and age were associated with high ADR.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that in addition to FH of CRC, age, male sex, BMI, and CKD are independent predictors of increased ADR in patients between 40 and 49 years of age.

Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer in Average Risk Adults 20-39 Years of Age: A Population-Based National Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

While overall rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) have declined in individuals aged above 50 years of age, this decline has not been seen in younger individuals who do not benefit from current screening guidelines. We sought to describe the prevalence of CRC in adults 20-39 years of age without family history of CRC or inflammatory bowel disease as early-onset CRC (EoCRC), evaluate associated signs and symptoms and medical comorbidities in EoCRC, and compare them with individuals aged 20-39 years without CRC (NoCRC). Our secondary aim was to compare EoCRC with individuals aged 40 years and above with CRC (LoCRC).

METHODS

Utilizing a commercial database (Explorys Inc, Cleveland, OH), we identified a cohort of patients aged 20-39 years with first ever diagnosis of CRC between 2013 and 2018 based on the Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine-Clinical Terms. We calculated the overall prevalence rate of EoCRC, described age, race, and gender-based prevalence rates of EoCRC, and identified associated symptoms and medical comorbidities associated with EoCRC.

RESULTS

The overall rate of EoCRC was 18.9/100,000. Compared to NoCRC, EoCRC patients were more likely to be Caucasian and female, with predominant symptoms of hematochezia, anemia, and decreased appetite. EoCRC group had higher prevalence rates of medical comorbidities such as diabetes, smoking, and obesity. Compared to LoCRC, EoCRC group presented more frequently with left-sided CRC and rectal cancers.

CONCLUSION

This is one of the largest studies to date to describe the epidemiology of EoCRC in USA. We found EoCRC to occur predominantly in the Caucasian and female population. EoCRC presented more frequently with left-sided and rectal CRC. We also identified signs/symptoms as well as comorbidities associated with EoCRC. Patients with these features may benefit from earlier screening.