A Novel Prognostic Index in Patients With Hepatocellular Cancer Waiting for Liver Transplantation: Time-Radiological-response-Alpha-fetoprotein-INflammation (TRAIN) Score

A novel nomogram to predict the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation using extended selection criteria

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantations (LTs) with extended criteria have produced surgical results comparable to those obtained with traditional standards. However, it is not sufficient to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after LT according to morphological criteria alone. The present study aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting HCC recurrence after LT using extended selection criteria.

METHODS

Retrospective data on patients with HCC, including pathology, serological markers and follow-up data, were collected from January 2015 to April 2020 at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify and construct the prognostic nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Kaplan-Meier curves, decision curve analyses (DCAs), calibration diagrams, net reclassification indices (NRIs) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) values were used to assess the prognostic capacity of the nomogram.

RESULTS

A total of 301 patients with HCC who underwent LT were enrolled in the study. The nomogram was constructed, and the ROC curve showed good performance in predicting survival in both the development set (2/3) and the validation set (1/3) (the area under the curve reached 0.748 and 0.716, respectively). According to the median value of the risk score, the patients were categorized into the high- and low-risk groups, which had significantly different recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates (P < 0.01). Compared with the Milan criteria and University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, DCA revealed that the new nomogram model had the best net benefit in predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year RFS. The nomogram performed well for calibration, NRI and IDI improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram, based on the Milan criteria and serological markers, showed good accuracy in predicting the recurrence of HCC after LT using extended selection criteria.

Role of Locoregional Therapy on Survival After Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma--Experience from a High-volume Center

Background

Locoregional therapy (LRT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) before liver transplantation (LT) has a role in improving the tumor biology and post-LT survival outcome apart from downstaging and bridging. We retrospectively analyzed our database of adult living donor liver transplants (LDLT) for HCC, to compare the survival outcomes in Group-1 (upfront-LT, HCC within Milan/UCSF/AFP<1000 ng/ml) and Group-2 (LT post-LRT, HCC beyond UCSF/irrespective of tumor burden with AFP>1000 ng/ml). We also explored the risk factors for recurrence on follow-up.

Methods

A study group (n = 506, Group-1-348, Group-2 = 158) of patients with HCC who underwent LDLT between July 2006 and December 2022, excluding incidental HCC (n = 42), patients with other histology (n = 13) and in-hospital mortality (n = 43), were analyzed. Study cohort (n = 341), after propensity score matching, was analyzed for survival outcomes (overall survival, OS and disease-free survival, DFS) and risk factors for recurrence between Group-1 (n = 156) and Group-2 (n = 158).

Results

Group-2 exhibited a trend towards better mean OS and DFS compared to Group-1 (OS-133 vs. 107-months, P = NS, DFS-118 vs. 102-months, P = NS). Long-term OS (10-year) for those within Milan and UCSF criteria was superior in Group-2, P = NS. Complete pathological response (cPR) after LRT (46.8%), significantly improved OS and DFS compared to those with partial response and stable disease; 152 vs. 94 vs. 49 months, P = 0.001, and 147 vs. 75 vs. 41 months, P = 0.006, respectively. Recipient age, size of tumor, and pre-LT serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were independent predictors of cPR. Independent risk factors for recurrence included pre-LT AFP, tumors beyond UCSF, perineural invasion, and high-grade tumors.

Conclusion

Locoregional therapy in HCC offers significantly better OS and DFS in those who had a complete pathological response. Risk factors for recurrence post-LT were AFP level, beyond UCSF tumors, and high-grade HCC with PNI on histology.

Role of Liver Transplant in Primary and Secondary Liver Malignancies

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cholangiocarcinoma are the primary hepatic malignancies with established pathways to transplantation and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) exception points. Other tumors managed with liver transplantation (LT) include hepatic epithelioid hemangioendothelioma and fibrolamellar HCC. LT for metastatic neuroendocrine tumor has been established with patient selection criteria and a path to MELD exception points. Additionally, recent data on LT for patients with unresectable hepatic colorectal metastases demonstrate increasingly encouraging initial results.

Reappraisal of tacrolimus levels after liver transplant for HCC: A multicenter study toward personalized immunosuppression regimen

Post-liver transplant (LT) immunosuppression is necessary to prevent rejection; however, a major consequence of this is tumor recurrence. Although recurrence is a concern after LT for patients with HCC, the oncologically optimal tacrolimus (FK) regimen is still unknown. This retrospective study included 1406 patients with HCC who underwent LT (2002-2019) at 4 US institutions using variable post-LT immunosuppression regimens. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed to investigate the influences of post-LT time-weighted average FK (TWA-FK) level on HCC recurrence. A competing risk analysis was employed to evaluate the prognostic influence of TWA-FK while adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. The AUC for TWA-FK was greatest at 2 weeks (0.68), followed by 1 week (0.64) after LT. Importantly, this was consistently observed across the institutions despite immunosuppression regimen variability. In addition, the TWA-FK at 2 weeks was not associated with rejection within 6 months of LT. A competing risk regression analysis showed that TWA-FK at 2 weeks after LT is significantly associated with recurrence (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.21-1.41, p < 0.001). The TWA-FK effect on recurrence varied depending on the exposure level and the individual's risk of recurrence, including vascular invasion and tumor morphology. Although previous studies have explored the influence of FK levels at 1-3 months after LT on HCC recurrence, this current study suggests that earlier time points and exposure levels must be evaluated. Each patient's oncological risk must also be considered in developing an individualized immunosuppression regimen.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide, with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounting for approximately 90% of primary liver cancers. Advances in diagnostic and therapeutic tools, along with improved understanding of their application, are transforming patient treatment. Integrating these innovations into clinical practice presents challenges and necessitates guidance. These clinical practice guidelines offer updated advice for managing patients with HCC and provide a comprehensive review of pertinent data. Key updates from the 2018 EASL guidelines include personalised surveillance based on individual risk assessment and the use of new tools, standardisation of liver imaging procedures and diagnostic criteria, use of minimally invasive surgery in complex cases together with updates on the integrated role of liver transplantation, transitions between surgical, locoregional, and systemic therapies, the role of radiation therapies, and the use of combination immunotherapies at various stages of disease. Above all, there is an absolute need for a multiparametric assessment of individual risks and benefits, considering the patient's perspective, by a multidisciplinary team encompassing various specialties.

Dynamic changes of serum α-fetoprotein predict the prognosis of bevacizumab plus immunotherapy in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has been established as a biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, whether its dynamic changes could predict the response to systemic therapy remains elusive. This study explored the AFP trajectory and the association with survival in patients who received bevacizumab plus immunotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 536 HCC patients who received bevacizumab plus immunotherapy between February 2021 and February 2023. Patients were divided into two groups according to AFP values before treatment (400 ng/ml). Dynamic changes of AFP were fitted using a latent class model to generate the AFP trajectories. Multivariable Cox models were utilized to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for survival. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted analyses were conducted to mitigate the influence of unmeasured confounding variables. The primary endpoint is progression-free survival (PFS). The second endpoint is overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Three distinct trajectories were identified for AFP-low and AFP-high patients, respectively. In the AFP-low group, compared with the high-rising class (25%; n =69), HRs of PFS were 0.39 and 0.2 for the low-stable class (59.1%; n =163) and sharp-falling class (15.9%; n =44), after adjusting by tumor diameter, tumor number, and extra-hepatic metastasis. In the AFP-high group, compared with the high-stable class (18.5%; n =48), HRs of PFS were 0.3 and 0.04 for the middle-stable class (56.5%; n =147) and sharp-falling class (25%; n =65), after adjusting by tumor diameter, tumor number, and extra-hepatic metastasis. Furthermore, the AFP trajectories exhibited the utmost relative importance among all covariates regarding PFS and OS in the multivariable regression models.

CONCLUSION

The AFP trajectories in HCC patients receiving bevacizumab and immunotherapy constituted an independent biomarker indicative of clinical outcomes. Findings from this study hold potential clinical utility in dynamically forecasting the prognosis of systemic therapy in HCC patients and facilitating clinical decision-making. Rapid reduction of AFP post-treatment can lead to favorable patient prognoses.

Role of protein induced by vitamin-K absence-II in transplanted patients with HCC not producing alpha-fetoprotein

Elevated Protein Induced by Vitamin-K Absence-II (PIVKA-II) has been shown to be an adverse prognostic factor in HCC patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT). No definitive data are available about the impact of PIVKA-II concerning post-LT recurrence in patients not secreting (≤ 20 ng/mL) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). An observational retrospective study of the East-West HCC-LT consortium is reported. Between 2000 and 2019, 639 HCC patients were enrolled in 5 collaborative European and Japanese centers. To minimize the initial selection bias, an inverse probability therapy weighting method was adopted to analyze the data. In the post-inverse probability therapy weighting population, PIVKA-II (HR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.52-2.64; p < 0.001) and AFP (HR=1.82; 95% CI: 1.48-2.24; p < 0.001) were the most relevant independent risk factors for post-LT recurrence. A sub-analysis focusing only on patients who are AFP non-secreting confirmed the negative role of PIVKA-II (HR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.26-3.35; p =0.004). When categorizing the entire population into 4 groups according to the AFP levels (≤ or > 20 ng/mL) and PIVKA (≤ or > 300 mUA/mL) at the time of LT, the lowest recurrence rates were observed in the low AFP-PIVKA-II group (5-year recurrence rate = 8.0%). Conversely, the high AFP-PIVKA-II group had the worst outcome (5-year recurrence rate = 35.1%). PIVKA-II secretion is a relevant risk factor for post-LT HCC recurrence. The role of this marker is independent of the AFP status. Combining both tumor markers, especially in the setting of LT, should be of great relevance for adding information about predicting the post-LT risk of tumor recurrence and selecting these patients for transplantation.

Evolution of Liver Transplantation Indications: Expanding Horizons

Liver transplantation (LT) has significantly transformed the prognosis of patients with end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The traditional epidemiology of liver diseases has undergone a remarkable shift in indications for LT, marked by a decline in viral hepatitis and an increase in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), along with expanded indications for HCC. Recent advancements in surgical techniques, organ preservation and post-transplant patients' management have opened new possibilities for LT. Conditions that were historically considered absolute contraindications have emerged as potential new indications, demonstrating promising results in terms of patient survival. While these expanding indications provide newfound hope, the ethical dilemma of organ scarcity persists. Addressing this requires careful consideration and international collaboration to ensure equitable access to LT. Multidisciplinary approaches and ongoing research efforts are crucial to navigate the evolving landscape of LT. This review aims to offer a current overview of the primary emerging indications for LT, focusing on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), acute alcoholic hepatitis (AH), intrahepatic and perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (i- and p-CCA), colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM), and neuroendocrine tumor (NET) liver metastases.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Narrative Review and A Glimpse into The Future

Liver transplantation (LT) is a highly effective treatment for carefully selected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this review, we explored the development of LT selection criteria and organ allocation policies, comparing original data to underscore their historical progression into the intricate task of quantitatively estimating pre- and post-LT survivals. We emphasized the role of biomarkers such as serum alpha-fetoprotein, Des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin, circulating tumor cells, and circulating tumor DNA in predicting patient outcomes. Additionally, we examined the transplant-associated survival benefits and the difficulties in accurately calculating these benefits. We also reviewed recent advancements in targeted therapy and checkpoint inhibitors for advanced, inoperable HCC and projected their integration into LT for HCC. We further discussed the growing use of living donor liver transplants in the United States and compared its outcomes with those of deceased donor liver transplants. Furthermore, we examined the progress in machine perfusion techniques, which have shown potential in improving patient outcomes and enlarging the donor pool. These advancements present opportunities to enhance LT patient survivals, refine selection criteria, establish new priority metrics, develop innovative bridging and downstaging strategies, and formulate redesigned LT strategies for HCC treatments.

Therapeutic Approach to Post-Transplant Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Certainties and Open Issues

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a growing indication for liver transplantation (LT). Careful candidate selection is a prerequisite to keep post-LT recurrence rates within acceptable percentages. In the pre-LT period, various types of locoregional treatments and/or systemic therapies can be used for bridging or downstaging purposes. In this context, one of the factors limiting the possibility of treatment is the degree of functional liver impairment. In the LT subject, no widely accepted indications are available to guide treatment of disease recurrence and heterogeneity exists between transplant centers. Improved liver function post LT makes multiple therapeutic strategies theoretically feasible, but patient management is complicated by the need to adjust immunosuppressive therapy and to assess potential toxicities and drug-drug interactions. Finally, there is controversy and uncertainty about the use of recently introduced immunotherapeutic drugs, mainly due to the risk of organ rejection. In this paper, we will review the most recent available literature on the management of post-transplant HCC recurrence, discussing evidence and controversies.

Liver Transplant in Patients with Hepatocarcinoma: Imaging Guidelines and Future Perspectives Using Artificial Intelligence

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common primary malignant hepatic tumor and occurs most often in the setting of chronic liver disease. Liver transplantation is a curative treatment option and is an ideal solution because it solves the chronic underlying liver disorder while removing the malignant lesion. However, due to organ shortages, this treatment can only be applied to carefully selected patients according to clinical guidelines. Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology with multiple applications in medicine with a predilection for domains that work with medical imaging, like radiology. With the help of these technologies, laborious tasks can be automated, and new lesion imaging criteria can be developed based on pixel-level analysis. Our objectives are to review the developing AI applications that could be implemented to better stratify liver transplant candidates. The papers analysed applied AI for liver segmentation, evaluation of steatosis, sarcopenia assessment, lesion detection, segmentation, and characterization. A liver transplant is an optimal treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the setting of chronic liver disease. Furthermore, AI could provide solutions for improving the management of liver transplant candidates to improve survival.

The Role of Radiomics and AI Technologies in the Segmentation, Detection, and Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary hepatic neoplasm. Thanks to recent advances in computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), there is potential to improve detection, segmentation, discrimination from HCC mimics, and monitoring of therapeutic response. Radiomics, artificial intelligence (AI), and derived tools have already been applied in other areas of diagnostic imaging with promising results. In this review, we briefly discuss the current clinical applications of radiomics and AI in the detection, segmentation, and management of HCC. Moreover, we investigate their potential to reach a more accurate diagnosis of HCC and to guide proper treatment planning.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Alpha Fetoprotein, and Liver Allocation for Transplantation: Past, Present and Future

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation and has been the treatment of choice due to the oncologic benefit for patients with advanced chronic liver disease (AdvCLD) and small tumors for the last 25 years. For HCC patients undergoing liver transplantation, alpha fetoprotein (AFP) has increasingly been applied as an independent predictor for overall survival, disease free recurrence, and waitlist drop out. In addition to static AFP, newer studies evaluating the AFP dynamic response to downstaging therapy show enhanced prognostication compared to static AFP alone. While AFP has been utilized to select HCC patients for transplant, despite years of allocation policy changes, the US allocation system continues to take a uniform approach to HCC patients, without discriminating between those with favorable or unfavorable tumor biology. We aim to review the history of liver allocation for HCC in the US, the utility of AFP in liver transplantation, the implications of weaving AFP as a biomarker into policy. Based on this review, we encourage the US transplant community to revisit its HCC organ allocation model, to incorporate more precise oncologic principles for patient selection, and to adopt AFP dynamics to better stratify waitlist dropout risk.

Different Models to Predict the Risk of Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Setting of Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Liver transplantation is considered the first-choice curative therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma in the early phase of the disease, when surgical resection is not possible. Even when implementing restrictive criteria to select patients for liver transplantation, there is a risk of recurrence in the transplanted liver, influencing the long-term outcome and prognosis. As it is challenging to predict the individual risk of recurrence, there is a need for validated and predictive scoring systems to use to stratify patients before and/or after liver transplantation. Most of the proposed scorings include biological markers for tumour behavior, in addition to the number and size of tumoral nodules. In this review, we discuss different published models to assess the risk of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after transplantation. Our aim is to refine clinical decisions about prioritization and listing for liver transplantation, to better inform patients and provide an appropriate surveillance strategy to influence their prognosis.

Abstract

Liver transplantation is the preferred therapeutic option for non-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma in early-stage disease. Taking into account the limited number of donor organs, liver transplantation is restricted to candidates with long-term outcomes comparable to benign indications on the waiting list. Introducing the morphometric Milan criteria as the gold standard for transplant eligibility reduced the recurrence rate. Even with strict patient selection, there is a risk of recurrence of between 8 and 20% in the transplanted liver, and this is of even greater importance when using more expanded criteria and downstaging protocols. Currently, it remains challenging to predict the risk of recurrence and the related prognosis for individual patients. In this review, the recurrence-risk-assessment scores proposed in the literature are discussed. Currently there is no consensus on the optimal model or the implications of risk stratification in clinical practice. The most recent scorings include additional biological markers for tumour behavior, such as alfa-foetoprotein, and the response to locoregional therapies, in addition to the number and diameter of tumoral nodules. The refinement of the prediction of recurrence is important to better inform patients, guide decisions about prioritization and listing and implement individualized surveillance strategies. In the future, this might also provide indications for tailored immunosuppressive therapy or inclusion in trials for adjuvant treatment.

Trajectories of serum α-fetoprotein and intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma outcomes after transarterial chemoembolization: A longitudinal, retrospective, multicentre, cohort study

BACKGROUND

α-fetoprotein (AFP) response has been proven a key tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its definition remains controversial. This study aims to characterize AFP trajectories after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and examine its impact on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

This longitudinal, multicenter, retrospective, cohort study examined data from the electronic medical record system of four hospitals in China between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2016. A latent class growth mixed model was applied to distinguish potential AFP dynamic changing trajectories. The multivariable Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for overall survival. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted analyses were performed to eliminate unmeasured confounders through marginal structural models.

FINDINGS

A total of 881 patients, who had intermediate-stage HCC with AFP repeatedly measured 3 to 10 times, were included in the study. Three distinct trajectories were identified using the latent class growth mixture model: high-rising (25.7%; n = 226), low-stable (58.7%; n = 517), and sharp-falling (AFP serological response, 15.6%; n = 138). Compared with the low-stable class, the aHRs for death were 5.13 (3.71, 7.10) and 0.52 (0.33, 0.81) for the high-rising and sharp-falling class, adjusted by gender, baseline major tumor size, intrahepatic lesions number, and logAFP(smooth). Furthermore, high-rising class had a significantly higher HR in the subgroup of female patients (10.60, 95%CI: 6.29, 17.86), age<55 (6.78, 95%CI: 4.79, 9.59) and Child-Pugh class B (23.01, 95%CI:8.07, 65.63) (P = 0.014, 0.046 and 0.033 for interaction, respectively). Trajectories of AFP had the highest relative importance of each parameter to survival, including largest tumor size, intrahepatic lesions number, Child-Pugh class, and baseline AFP.

INTERPRETATION

AFP trajectories were associated with overall survival for intermediate-stage HCC after TACE.

FUNDING

The Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (Nos. 2018J01352, 2016J01576 and 2016J01586); the Science and Technology Innovation Joint Foundation of Fujian Province (Nos. 2017Y9125).

Prognostic Factors for 10-Year Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Cancer Receiving Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Long-term survival after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) continues to increase along with the modification of inclusion criteria. This study aimed at identifying risk factors for 5- and 10-year overall and HCC-specific death after LT.

METHODS

A total of 1,854 HCC transplant recipients from 10 European centers during the period 1987-2015 were analyzed. The population was divided in three eras, defined by landmark changes in HCC transplantability indications. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the significance of independent risk factors for survival.

RESULTS

Five- and 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 68.1% and 54.4%, respectively. Two-hundred forty-two patients (13.1%) had HCC recurrence. Five- and 10-year recurrence rates were 16.2% and 20.3%. HCC-related deaths peaked at 2 years after LT (51.1% of all HCC-related deaths) and decreased to a high 30.8% in the interval of 6 to 10 years after LT. The risk factors for 10-year OS were macrovascular invasion (OR = 2.71; P = 0.001), poor grading (OR = 1.56; P = 0.001), HCV status (OR = 1.39; P = 0.001), diameter of the target lesion (OR = 1.09; P = 0.001), AFP slope (OR = 1.63; P = 0.006), and patient age (OR = 0.99; P = 0.01). The risk factor for 10-year HCC-related death were AFP slope (OR = 4.95; P < 0.0001), microvascular (OR = 2.13; P < 0.0001) and macrovascular invasion (OR = 2.32; P = 0.01), poor tumor grading (OR = 1.95; P = 0.001), total number of neo-adjuvant therapies (OR = 1.11; P = 0.001), diameter of the target lesion (OR = 1.11; P = 0.002), and patient age (OR = 0.97; P = 0.001). When analyzing survival rates in function of LT era, a progressive improvement of the results was observed, with patients transplanted during the period 2007-2015 showing 5- and 10-year death rates of 26.8% and 38.9% (vs. 1987-1996, P < 0.0001; vs. 1997-2006, P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

LT generates long-term overall and disease-free survival rates superior to all other oncologic treatments of HCC. The role of LT in the modern treatment of HCC becomes even more valued when the follow-up period reaches at least 10 years. The results of LT continue to improve even when prudently widening the inclusion criteria for transplantation. Despite the incidence of HCC recurrence is highest during the first 5 years post-transplant, one-third of them occur later, indicating the importance of a life-long follow-up of these patients.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: How Should We Improve the Thresholds?

Simple Summary

The ideal treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is liver transplantation (LT), which both eliminates the HCC and cures the diseased liver. Once considered an experimental treatment with dismal survival rates, LT for HCC entered a new era with the establishment of the Milan criteria over 20 years ago. However, over the last two decades, the Milan criteria, which are based on tumor morphology, have come under intense scrutiny and are now largely regarded as too restrictive, and limit the access of transplantation for many patients who would otherwise achieve good clinical outcomes. The liver transplant community has been making every effort to reach a goal of establishing more reliable selection criteria. This article addresses how the criteria have been extended, as well as the concept of pre-transplant down-staging to maximize the eligibility.

Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third highest cause of cancer-related mortality, and liver transplantation is the ideal treatment for this disease. The Milan criteria provided the opportunity for HCC patients to undergo LT with favorable outcomes and have been the international gold standard and benchmark. With the accumulation of data, however, the Milan criteria are not regarded as too restrictive. After the implementation of the Milan criteria, many extended criteria have been proposed, which increases the limitations regarding the morphological tumor burden, and incorporates the tumor’s biological behavior using surrogate markers. The paradigm for the patient selection for LT appears to be shifting from morphologic criteria to a combination of biologic, histologic, and morphologic criteria, and to the establishment of a model for predicting post-transplant recurrence and outcomes. This review article aims to characterize the various patient selection criteria for LT, with reference to several surrogate markers for the biological behavior of HCC (e.g., AFP, PIVKA-II, NLR, 18F-FDG PET/CT, liquid biopsy), and the response to locoregional therapy. Furthermore, the allocation rules in each country and the present evidence on the role of down-staging large tumors are addressed.

The Landscape Of Alpha Fetoprotein In Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Where Are We?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death among cirrhosis patients. Difficulties in early diagnosis and heterogeneity are obstacles to effective treatment, especially for advanced HCC. Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the best therapy for HCC. Although many biomarkers are being proposed, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), which was identified over 60 years ago, remains the most utilized. Recently, much hope has been placed in the immunogenicity of AFP to develop novel therapies, such as AFP vaccines and AFP-specific adoptive T-cell transfer (ACT). This review summarizes the performance of AFP as a biomarker for HCC diagnosis and prognosis, as well as its correlation with molecular classes. In addition, the role of AFP in LT is also described. Finally, we highlight the mechanism and application prospects of two immune therapies (AFP vaccine and ACT) for HCC. In general, our review points out the prevalence of AFP in HCC, accompanied by some controversies and novel directions for future research.

Upper Limits of Downstaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Liver Transplantation

In Europe and the United States, approximately 1100 and 1800 liver transplantations, respectively, are performed every year for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), compared with an annual incidence of 65,000 and 39,000 new cases, respectively. Because of organ shortages, proper patient selection is crucial, especially for those exceeding the Milan criteria. Downstaging is the reduction of the HCC burden to meet the eligibility criteria for liver transplantation. Many techniques can be used in downstaging, including ablation, chemoembolisation, radioembolisation and systemic treatments, with a reported success rate of 60-70%. In recent years, an increasing number of patient responders to downstaging procedures has been included in the waitlist, generally with a comparable five-year post-transplant survival but with a higher probability of dropout than HCC patients within the Milan criteria. While the Milan criteria are generally accepted as the endpoint of downstaging, the upper limits of tumour burden for downstaging HCC for liver transplantation are controversial. Very challenging situations involve HCC patients with large nodules, macrovascular invasion or even extrahepatic metastasis at baseline who respond to increasingly more effective downstaging procedures and who aspire to be placed on the waitlist for transplantation. This narrative review analyses the most important evidence available on cohorts subjected to "extended" downstaging, including HCC patients over the up-to-seven criteria and over the University of California San Francisco downstaging criteria. We also address surrogate markers of biological aggressiveness, such as alpha-fetoprotein and the response stability to locoregional treatments, which are very useful in selecting responders to downstaging procedures for waitlisting inclusion.

Predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation using a novel model that incorporates tumor and donor-related factors

Evidence suggests that liver graft quality impacts on posttransplant recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As of today, selection criteria only use variables related to tumor characteristics. Within the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified patients with HCC who underwent liver transplantation between 2004 and 2016 (development cohort, n = 10 887). Based on tumor recurrence rates, we fitted a competing-risk regression incorporating tumor- and donor-related factors, and we developed a prognostic score. Results were validated both internally and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry. Total tumor diameter (subhazard ratio [sub-HR] 1.52 [1.28-1.81]), alpha-feto protein (sub-HR 1.27 [1.23-1.32], recipient male gender (sub-HR 1.43 [1.18-1.74]), elevated donor body mass index (sub-HR 1.26 [1.01-1.58]), and shared graft allocation policy (sub-HR 1.20 [1.01-1.43]) were independently associated with tumor recurrence. We next developed the Darlica score (sub-HR 2.72 [2.41-3.08] P < 0.001) that allows identifying risky combinations between a given donor and a given recipient. Results were validated internally (n = 3 629) and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry (n = 370). The current score is based on variables that are readily available at the time of graft offer. It allows identifying hazardous donor-recipient combinations in terms of risk of tumor recurrence and overall survival.

THE MANAGEMENT OF POST-TRANSPLANTATION RECURRENCE OF HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA

The annual incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continues to rise. Over the last two decades, liver transplantation (LT) has become the preferable treatment of HCC, when feasible and strict selection criteria are met. With the rise in HCC-related LT, compounded by downstaging techniques and expansion of transplant selection criteria, a parallel increase in number of post-transplantation HCC recurrence is expected. Additionally, in the context of an immunosuppressed transplant host, recurrences may behave aggressively and more challenging to manage, resulting in poor prognosis. Despite this, no consensus or best practice guidelines for post-transplantation cancer surveillance and recurrence management for HCC currently exist. Studies with adequate population sizes and high-level evidence are lacking, and the role of systemic and locoregional therapies for graft and extrahepatic recurrences remains under debate. This review seeks to summarize the existing literature on post-transplant HCC surveillance and recurrence management. It highlights the value of early tumour detection, re-evaluating the immunosuppression regimen, and staging to differentiate disseminated recurrence from intrahepatic or extrahepatic oligo-recurrence. This ultimately guides decision-making and maximizes treatment effect. Treatment recommendations specific to recurrence type are provided based on currently available locoregional and systemic therapies.

Hepatocellular cancer selection systems and liver transplantation: from the tower of babel to an ideal comprehensive score

The Milan criteria (MC) remain the cornerstone for the selection of patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) to be listed for liver transplantation (LT). Recently, several expanded criteria have been proposed to increase the transplantability of HCC patients without compromising their (oncologic) outcome. This paper aims to systematically review the different reported HCC-LT selection systems looking thereby at their ability to increase the number of transplantable patients and the overall survival and oncological outcome. A systematic review of the literature covering the period 1993 (date of the first reported HCC-LT selection system)-2021 identified 59 different inclusion criteria of HCC for LT. Among the 59 studies reporting HCC-LT selection systems, 15 (28.3%) were exclusively based on morphological aspects of the tumor; 29 (54.7%) included biologic, seven (13.2%) radiological, and two (3.8%) only included pathological tumor features. Overall, 31% more patients could be transplanted when adhering to the new HCC-LT selection systems. Despite the increased number of LT, 5-year patient and disease-free survival rates were similar between MC-IN and MC-OUT/new HCC-LT-IN criteria. A careful extension of the inclusion criteria should allow many more patients to access a potentially curative LT without compromising their outcome. The development of a widely accepted "comprehensive" HCC-LT Score able to offer a fair chance of justified transplantation to more patients should become a priority within the liver transplant community. Further studies are needed to develop internationally accepted, expanded selection criteria for liver transplantation of HCC patients.

Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence after Liver Transplantation

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT), occurring in 10-15% of cases, is a major concern. A lot of work has been done in order to refine the selection of LT candidates with HCC and to improve the outcome of patients with recurrence. Despite this, the prognosis of these patients remains poor, partly due to the several areas of uncertainty in their management. Even if surveillance for HCC recurrence is crucial for early detection, there is currently no evidence to support a specific and cost-effective post-LT surveillance strategy. Concerning preventive measures, consensus on the best immunosuppressive drugs has not been reached and not enough data to support adjuvant therapy are present. Several therapeutic approaches (surgical, locoregional and systemic treatments) are available in case of recurrence, but there are still few data in the post-LT setting. Moreover, the use of immune checkpoint inhibitors is controversial in transplant recipients considered the risk of rejection. In this paper, the available evidence on the management of HCC recurrence after LT is comprehensively reviewed, considering pre- and post-transplant risk stratification, post-transplant surveillance, preventive strategies and treatment options.

Liver Living Donation for Cancer Patients: Benefits, Risks, Justification

LDLT covers all standard indications for liver transplantation, and the results are similar or even better than for standard DDLT. Due to the donor shortage and long waiting time, LDLT has become a relevant option for patients with liver tumors, provided the expected five-year survival rate is comparable to that of patients receiving a DDLT. Nowadays, LDLT offers the possibility to extend the standard morphometric selection by considering the biological parameters. In the setting of LDLT, we are not only faced with surgical morbidity in the donor, but long-term non-medical problems like psychological complications and financial burden also have to be considered. On the other hand, the benefits to the donor are mainly social and psychological. In LDLT, the donor's altruism is the fundamental ethical principle and it is based on the principles of (1) beneficence (doing good), (2) non-maleficence (avoiding harm), (3) respect for autonomy, and (4) respect for justice (promoting fairness). On top of that, the concept of double equipoise of living organ donation evaluates the relationship between the recipient's need, the donor's risk, and the recipient's outcome. It considers each donor-recipient pair as a unit, analyzing whether the specific recipient's benefit justifies the specific donor's risk in particular oncologic indications. In this light, it is essential to seek adequate informed consent focused on risk, benefits and outcome benefits of both donor and recipient supported by an independent living donor advocate. Finally, the transplant team must protect donors from donation if harm does not justify the expected benefit to the recipient.

Liver transplantation and BCLC classification: Limitations impede optimum treatment

BACKGROUND

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system has been endorsed by international guidelines as a staging algorithm of hepatocellular carcinoma. This analysis was performed to assess the outcome of liver transplantation in patients treated against the BCLC recommendations.

METHODS

The data of 198 patients who underwent liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma were extracted from a prospectively maintained database to classify the patients according to the BCLC system.

RESULTS

BCLC staging was as follows: 0, n = 5; A, n = 77; B, n = 41; C, n = 53; and D, n = 22. Accordingly, liver transplantation was performed in the majority of patients against BCLC recommendations. Surgery (n = 16), radiofrequency ablation (n = 15) and transarterial chemoembolization (n = 151) preceded liver transplantation in 182 patients. Sixteen patients were transplanted without pretreatment. The1-, 5- and 10-year survival rates were 83.8%, 62.4% and 45.9%, and 1-, 5-, and 10-year recurrence rates were 7.7%, 22.7% and 26.7%. The BCLC classification did neither impact survival (P = 0.796) nor recurrence (P = 0.693). In the Cox analysis, RECIST tumor progression and initial alpha fetoprotein were independent predictors of outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither the oncological nor the functional stratification imposed by the BCLC system was of importance for outcome. Lack of flexibility and disregard of biological parameters hamper its clinical applicability in liver transplantation.

Incorporating Tumor Biology to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence in Patients Undergoing Living Donor Liver Transplantation Using Expanded Selection Criteria

Conventional selection criteria for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are based on tumour size/number only, and do not consider vital surrogates of tumor biology such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and tumor [¹⁸ F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography ([¹⁸ F]FDG PET) avidity. We analyzed survival outcomes, and predictors of HCC recurrence in 405 patients with cirrhosis and HCC (HCC-cirr) who underwent living donor LT (LDLT) using our expanded selection criteria: no extrahepatic disease or major vascular invasion, irrespective of tumor size/number. Fifty-one percent patients had tumours beyond Milan, and 43% beyond the University of California San Francisco [UCSF] criteria. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were 64% and 70%, respectively. Three preoperatively available factors predicted recurrence: pre-LT AFP ≥100 ng/mL (P = 0.005; hazard ratio [HR], 2.190), tumor burden beyond the UCSF criteria (P = 0.001; HR, 2.640), and [¹⁸ F]FDG PET avidity (P = 0.004; HR, 2.442). A prognostic model based on the number and combination of the aforementioned preoperative risk factors was developed using a competing-risk RFS model. Three risk groups were identified: low (none or a single risk factor present, 9.3% recurrence), moderate (AFP ≥100 ng/mL and [¹⁸ F]FDG PET avidity, or beyond UCSF tumor and [¹⁸ F]FDG PET avidity, 25% recurrence), and high (AFP ≥100 ng/mL and beyond UCSF, or presence of all 3 risk factors, 46% recurrence). Acceptable long-term outcomes were achieved using our expanded selection criteria. Our prognostic model to predict recurrence based on preoperative biological and morphological factors could guide pretransplant management (downstaging versus upfront LDLT) with the aim of reducing post-LDLT recurrence.

Liver Transplantation Outcomes in a U.S. Multicenter Cohort of 789 Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Presenting Beyond Milan Criteria

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network recently approved liver transplant (LT) prioritization for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan Criteria (MC) who are down-staged (DS) with locoregional therapy (LRT). We evaluated post-LT outcomes, predictors of down-staging, and the impact of LRT in patients with beyond-MC HCC from the U.S. Multicenter HCC Transplant Consortium (20 centers, 2002-2013).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Clinicopathologic characteristics, overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and HCC recurrence (HCC-R) were compared between patients within MC (n = 3,570) and beyond MC (n = 789) who were down-staged (DS, n = 465), treated with LRT and not down-staged (LRT-NoDS, n = 242), or untreated (NoLRT-NoDS, n = 82). Five-year post-LT OS and RFS was higher in MC (71.3% and 68.2%) compared with DS (64.3% and 59.5%) and was lowest in NoDS (n = 324; 60.2% and 53.8%; overall P < 0.001). DS patients had superior RFS (60% vs. 54%, P = 0.043) and lower 5-year HCC-R (18% vs. 32%, P < 0.001) compared with NoDS, with further stratification by maximum radiologic tumor diameter (5-year HCC-R of 15.5% in DS/<5 cm and 39.1% in NoDS/>5 cm, P < 0.001). Multivariate predictors of down-staging included alpha-fetoprotein response to LRT, pathologic tumor number and size, and wait time >12 months. LRT-NoDS had greater HCC-R compared with NoLRT-NoDS (34.1% vs. 26.1%, P < 0.001), even after controlling for clinicopathologic variables (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.33, P < 0.001) and inverse probability of treatment-weighted propensity matching (HR = 1.82, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In LT recipients with HCC presenting beyond MC, successful down-staging is predicted by wait time, alpha-fetoprotein response to LRT, and tumor burden and results in excellent post-LT outcomes, justifying expansion of LT criteria. In LRT-NoDS patients, higher HCC-R compared with NoLRT-NoDS cannot be explained by clinicopathologic differences, suggesting a potentially aggravating role of LRT in patients with poor tumor biology that warrants further investigation.

The Importance of AFP in Liver Transplantation for HCC

INTRODUCTION

The most common biomarker for HCC is serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). AFP is used for screening and diagnosing HCC, and also, it is used for predicting prognosis and monitoring the response to treatment.

DISCUSSION

AFP secretion is associated with poor tumor histologic grade and aggressive tumor biological behavior. The risk of dropout on the waiting list for liver transplantation and the risk of tumor recurrence after liver transplantation are associated with high AFP serum levels. Therefore, using AFP levels for selecting patients to include on the liver transplantation waiting lists is critical. It is also known that a low AFP serum level before liver transplantation has limited informative value, but high AFP levels prior to liver transplantation indicate a higher risk for HCC recurrence.

CONCLUSION

AFP's performance as a screening, diagnostic, and prognostic marker for HCC is not ideal, but it is the most frequently used biomarker in the management of HCC.

Prognostic role of artificial intelligence among patients with hepatocellular cancer: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Prediction of survival after the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been widely investigated, yet remains inadequate. The application of artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a valid adjunct to traditional statistics due to the ability to process vast amounts of data and find hidden interconnections between variables. AI and deep learning are increasingly employed in several topics of liver cancer research, including diagnosis, pathology, and prognosis.

AIM

To assess the role of AI in the prediction of survival following HCC treatment.

METHODS

A web-based literature search was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines using the keywords "artificial intelligence", "deep learning" and "hepatocellular carcinoma" (and synonyms). The specific research question was formulated following the patient (patients with HCC), intervention (evaluation of HCC treatment using AI), comparison (evaluation without using AI), and outcome (patient death and/or tumor recurrence) structure. English language articles were retrieved, screened, and reviewed by the authors. The quality of the papers was assessed using the Risk of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool. Data were extracted and collected in a database.

RESULTS

Among the 598 articles screened, nine papers met the inclusion criteria, six of which had low-risk rates of bias. Eight articles were published in the last decade; all came from eastern countries. Patient sample size was extremely heterogenous (n = 11-22926). AI methodologies employed included artificial neural networks (ANN) in six studies, as well as support vector machine, artificial plant optimization, and peritumoral radiomics in the remaining three studies. All the studies testing the role of ANN compared the performance of ANN with traditional statistics. Training cohorts were used to train the neural networks that were then applied to validation cohorts. In all cases, the AI models demonstrated superior predictive performance compared with traditional statistics with significantly improved areas under the curve.

CONCLUSION

AI applied to survival prediction after HCC treatment provided enhanced accuracy compared with conventional linear systems of analysis. Improved transferability and reproducibility will facilitate the widespread use of AI methodologies.

A 2020 update on liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most frequent liver tumor and is associated with chronic liver disease in 90% of cases. In selected cases, liver transplantation represents an effective therapy with excellent overall survival.

AREA COVERED

Since the introduction of Milan criteria in 1996, numerous alternative selection systems to LT for HCC patients have been proposed. Debate remains about how best to select HCC patients for transplant and how to prioritize them on the waiting list.

EXPERT OPINION

The selection of the best scoring system to propose in the context of LT for HCC is far to be identified. In this review, we analyze and categorize the various selection systems, assessing their roles in the different decisional phases.

Risk assessment criteria in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: proposal to improve transplant oncology

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma has proved to be a highly effective cure if the right patient can be selected. Milan criteria has traditionally guided physicians toward appropriate liver allocation but changes in clinical practice, patient populations and recent developments in biomarkers are decreasing Milan criteria’s utility. At the same time, the literature has flooded with a diversity of new criteria that demonstrate strong predictive power and are better suited for current clinical practice. In this article, the utility of newly proposed criteria will be reviewed and important issues to improve future criteria will be addressed in hopes of opening a discussion on how key questions surrounding criteria for liver transplantation of hepatocellular carcinoma can be answered.

Predictors of outcome after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria

The Milan criteria have been the cornerstone of selection policies for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) awaiting liver transplantation (LT) globally for over two decades. Many groups have proposed the transplantation of patients with larger and more numerous tumors achieving comparable results. Many of these use radiologic morphometric criteria as surrogates for explant pathology to predict outcomes. Several other indices have been developed both within and beyond Milan incorporating biological indices as well as dynamic markers of response to pre-transplant locoregional treatments and waiting time. These have allowed for successful expansion of transplant selection criteria without compromising outcomes with limited organ supplies. In this review we will discuss the predictors of outcome in patients beyond Milan criteria.

Shadows Behind Using Simple Risk Models in Selection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients for Liver Transplantation

OBJECTIVE

To assess the potential influence of replacing Milan criteria with simple risk scores on outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing liver transplantation.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Several risk scores combining morphological and biological features were recently proposed for precise selection of HCC patients for transplantation.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 282 HCC liver transplant recipients. Recurrence-free survival (RFS), the primary outcome measure, was evaluated according to Metroticket 2.0 model and French AFP model with Milan criteria serving as benchmark.

RESULTS

Patients were well stratified with respect to RFS by Milan criteria, Metroticket 2.0 criteria, and AFP model cut-off ≤2 points (all P < 0.001) with c-statistics of 0.680, 0.695, and 0.681, respectively. Neither Metroticket 2.0 criteria (0.014, Z = 0.023; P = 0.509) nor AFP model (-0.014, Z = -0.021; P = 0.492) provided significant net reclassification improvement. Both patients within the Metroticket 2.0 criteria and AFP model ≤2 points exhibited heterogeneous recurrence risk, dependent upon alpha-fetoprotein (P = 0.026) and tumor number (P = 0.024), respectively. RFS of patients beyond Milan but within Metroticket 2.0 criteria (75.3%) or with AFP model ≤2 points (74.1%) was inferior to that observed for patients within Milan criteria (87.1%; P = 0.067 and P = 0.045, respectively). Corresponding microvascular invasion rates were 37.2% and 50.0%, compared with 13.6% in patients within Milan criteria (both P < 0.001). Moreover, Milan-out status was associated with significantly higher recurrence risk in subgroups within Metroticket 2.0 criteria (P = 0.021) or AFP model ≤2 points (P = 0.014).

CONCLUSION

Utilization of simple risk scores for liver transplant eligibility assessment leads to selection of patients at higher risk of posttransplant HCC recurrence.

Alpha-fetoprotein and 18F-FDG standard uptake value predict tumor recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumor thrombosis: Preliminary experience

BACKGROUND

Portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is regarded as a contraindication for liver transplantation (LT) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, some of these patients may have a favorable prognosis after LT. In this study, we evaluated the biological behavior of HCC with PVTT using tumor biomarker (alpha-fetoprotein, AFP) and ¹⁸F-FDG positron emission tomography (tumor standard uptake value) to identify a subset of patients who may be suitable for LT.

METHODS

Seventy-five HCC-PVTT liver recipients transplanted during February 2016 and June 2018 were analyzed. Different pre-transplant prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. PVTT status was identified following Vp classification (Vp1-Vp4).

RESULTS

Three-year recurrence-free survival and overall survival rates were 40% and 65.4% in Vp2-Vp3 PVTT patients, 21.4% and 30.6% in Vp4 PVTT patients (P < 0.05). Total tumor diameter >8 cm, pre-transplant AFP level >1000 ng/mL and intrahepatic tumor maximal standard uptake value (SUVmax-tumor >5) were independent risk factors for HCC recurrence and overall survival after LT in Vp2-3 PVTT patients. Low risk patients were defined as total tumor diameter ≤8 cm; or if total tumor diameter more than 8 cm, with both pre-transplant AFP level less than 1000 ng/mL and intrahepatic tumor SUVmax less than 5, simultaneously. Twenty-two Vp2-3 PVTT HCC patients (46.8%) were identified as low risk patients, and their 3-year recurrence-free and overall survival rates were 67.6% and 95.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with segmental or lobar PVTT and biologically favorable tumors defined by AFP and ¹⁸F-FDG SUVmax might be suitable for LT.

Impact of successful local ablative bridging therapy prior to liver transplantation on long-term survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis

Background

It has been shown that local ablative procedures enable downsizing, reduce drop-out from the waiting list and improve prognosis after liver transplantation. It is still unclear whether a response to the local ablative therapy is due to a favorable tumor biology or if a real benefit in tumor stabilization exists, particularly in complete pathological response.

Method

Data of 163 HCC patients who underwent liver transplantation were extracted from our prospectively maintained registry. We analyzed the tumor load, pre-transplant α-fetoprotein levels, child stage aside the application and success of local ablative therapies as bridging procedures before transplantation.

Results

87 patients received multiple and/or combined local therapies. In 20 cases, this resulted in a complete remission of the tumor as observed in the explant histology. The other 76 patients underwent no bridging procedure. The observed 5- and 10-year survival rates for patients with bridging were 67% and 47% and without bridging 56% and 46%, respectively. Tumor-related 10-year survival showed a statistically significant difference between both groups (81% versus 59%). In the multivariate analyses bridging, number of lesions and α-fetoprotein level showed an independent statistically significant influence on tumor-related survival in these patients.

Conclusions

Successful local ablative therapy before liver transplantation is an independent statistically significant factor in long-term tumor-related survival for patients with HCC in cirrhosis and reduces tumor recurrences.

Systematic review: risk prediction models for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) is a significant clinical problem associated with poor surgical outcomes. This study aims to summarize the current evidence on risk prediction models of HCC recurrence after LT. PubMed and EMBASE were searched to May 25, 2019, for relevant articles. Studies originally designed to develop or validate a risk prediction model for HCC recurrence after LT were included. Two independent authors summarized the study characteristics and evaluated the risk of bias and applicability concerns in the included studies. From 26 included studies, 18 original risk prediction models were determined, but only five models were externally validated. The average number of predictors involved in the construction of risk models was three. The most frequently employed predictors were alpha-fetoprotein, tumor size, vascular invasion, tumor number, tumor differentiation, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio. Most studies showed good discriminatory performance (AUC >0.75). The overall quality of the included studies was generally low. Most of the original models lacked the highly recommended external and prospective validation in diverse populations. The AFP model was the well-validated preoperative risk model that can stratify patients into high- and low-risk groups.

Identification of an Upper Limit of Tumor Burden for Downstaging in Candidates with Hepatocellular Cancer Waiting for Liver Transplantation: A West-East Collaborative Effort

Abstract: Since the introduction of Milan Criteria, all scoring models describing the prognosis of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) have been exclusively based on characteristics available at surgery, therefore neglecting the intention-to-treat principles. This study aimed at developing an intention-to-treat model through a competing-risk analysis. Using data available at first referral, an upper limit of tumor burden for downstaging was identified beyond which successful LT becomes an unrealistic goal. Twelve centers in Europe, United States, and Asia (Brussels, Sapienza Rome, Padua, Columbia University New York, Innsbruck, Medanta-The Medicity Dehli, Hong Kong, Kyoto, Kaohsiung Taiwan, Mainz, Fukuoka, Shulan Hospital Hangzhou) created a Derivation (n = 2318) and a Validation Set (n = 773) of HCC patients listed for LT between January2000-March 2017. In the Derivation Set, the competing-risk analysis identified two independent covariables predicting post-transplant HCC-related death: combined HCC number and diameter (SHR = 1.15; p < 0.001) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (SHR = 1.80; p < 0.001). WE-DS Model showed good diagnostic performances at internal and external validation. The identified upper limit of tumor burden for downstaging was AFP ≤ 20 ng/mL and up-to-twelve as sum of HCC number and diameter; AFP = 21-200 and up-to-ten; AFP = 201-500 and up-to-seven; AFP = 501-1000 and up-to-five. The WE-DS Model proposed here, based on morphologic and biologic data obtained at first referral in a large international cohort of HCC patients listed for LT, allowed identifying an upper limit of tumor burden for downstaging beyond which successful LT, following downstaging, results in a futile transplantation.

Charting the Path Forward for Risk Prediction in Liver Transplant for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: International Validation of HALTHCC Among 4,089 Patients

Prognosticating outcomes in liver transplant (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continues to challenge the field. Although Milan Criteria (MC) generalized the practice of LT for HCC and improved outcomes, its predictive character has degraded with increasing candidate and oncological heterogeneity. We sought to validate and recalibrate a previously developed, preoperatively calculated, continuous risk score, the Hazard Associated with Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HALTHCC), in an international cohort. From 2002 to 2014, 4,089 patients (both MC in and out [25.2%]) across 16 centers in North America, Europe, and Asia were included. A continuous risk score using pre-LT levels of alpha-fetoprotein, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Sodium score, and tumor burden score was recalibrated among a randomly selected cohort (n = 1,021) and validated in the remainder (n = 3,068). This study demonstrated significant heterogeneity by site and year, reflecting practice trends over the last decade. On explant pathology, both vascular invasion (VI) and poorly differentiated component (PDC) increased with increasing HALTHCC score. The lowest-risk patients (HALTHCC 0-5) had lower rates of VI and PDC than the highest-risk patients (HALTHCC > 35) (VI, 7.7%[ 1.2-14.2] vs. 70.6% [48.3-92.9] and PDC:4.6% [0.1%-9.8%] vs. 47.1% [22.6-71.5]; P < 0.0001 for both). This trend was robust to MC status. This international study was used to adjust the coefficients in the HALTHCC score. Before recalibration, HALTHCC had the greatest discriminatory ability for overall survival (OS; C-index = 0.61) compared to all previously reported scores. Following recalibration, the prognostic utility increased for both recurrence (C-index = 0.71) and OS (C-index = 0.63). Conclusion: This large international trial validated and refined the role for the continuous risk metric, HALTHCC, in establishing pre-LT risk among candidates with HCC worldwide. Prospective trials introducing HALTHCC into clinical practice are warranted.

Prognostic Relevance of a Complete Pathologic Response in Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

A complete pathologic response (CPR) after neoadjuvant treatment is reported to be associated with an exceptionally low risk of recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of CPR in liver transplantation for HCC.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was based on 222 HCC transplant recipients. Incidence of recurrence and survival at 5 years were the primary and secondary outcome measures, respectively. Competing risk analyses were applied to evaluate recurrence incidence and its predictors. Propensity score matching was performed to compare the outcomes for patients after neoadjuvant treatment with and without CPR.

RESULTS

Neoadjuvant treatment was performed for 127 patients, 32 of whom achieved CPR (25.2%). Comparison of baseline characteristics showed that the patients with CPR were at lowest baseline recurrence risk, followed by treatment-naïve patients and patients without CPR. Adjusted for potential confounders, CPR did not have any significant effects on tumor recurrence. No significant net reclassification improvement was noted after addition of CPR to existing criteria. Neoadjuvant treatment without CPR was associated with increased risk of recurrence in subgroups within the Milan criteria (p = 0.016), with alpha-fetoprotein concentration (AFP) model not exceeding 2 points (p = 0.021) and within the Warsaw criteria (p = 0.007) compared with treatment-naïve patients who were at risk similar to those with CPR. The 5-year incidences of recurrence in propensity score-matched patients with and without CPR were respectively 14.0% and 15.9% (p = 0.661), with corresponding survival rates of 73.2% and 67.4%, respectively (p = 0.329).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings showed that CPR is not independently associated with long-term outcomes after liver transplantation for HCC.

Biology and significance of alpha-fetoprotein in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths globally due, in part, to the majority of patients being diagnosed with intermediate or advanced stage disease. Our increased understanding of the heterogeneous molecular pathogenesis of HCC has led to significant developments in novel targeted therapies. Despite these advances, there remains a high unmet need for new treatment options. HCC is a complex disease with multiple pathogenic mechanisms caused by a variety of risk factors, making it difficult to characterize with a single biomarker. In fact, numerous biomarkers have been studied in HCC, but alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) remains the most widely used and accepted serum marker since its discovery over 60 years ago. This review summarizes the most relevant studies associated with the regulation of AFP at the gene and protein levels; the pathophysiology of AFP as a pro-proliferative protein; and the correlation of AFP with molecular HCC subclasses, the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and angiogenesis. Also described are the historical and current uses of AFP for screening and surveillance, diagnosis, its utility as a prognostic and predictive biomarker and its role as a tumour antigen in HCC. Taken together, these data demonstrate the relevance of AFP for patients with HCC and identify several remaining questions that will benefit from future research.

Hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after acute liver allograft rejection treatment: A multicenter European experience

BACKGROUND

During the last decades, several risk factors for the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) have been investigated. However, the impact of two important drivers of oncogenesis, namely the immunosuppression and the treatment of acute cellular rejection (ACR) have been marginally addressed. This study aimed at investigating the impact of ACR treatment on the incidence of tumor recurrence in a large European HCC-LT population.

METHODS

Seven hundred and eighty-one adult patients transplanted between February 1, 1985 and June 30, 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. After propensity score match, 116 patients treated for ACR using steroid boluses were compared with 115 patients who did not present any ACR or a histologic but clinical irrelevant ACR.

RESULTS

Steroid boluses treated patients had a 18-fold higher overall incidence of HCC recurrence than those non-treated patients (16.4% vs. 0.9%; P<0.0001). At multivariate Cox regression analysis, steroid boluses used to treat ACR were an independent risk factor for HCC recurrence (HR=14.2; 95% CI: 1.8-110.4; P = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

The decision to treat ACR as well as to reinforce immunosuppression load should be cautiously taken in view of the presented results. Prospective studies are needed to further elucidate the clinical impact of immunosuppression on HCC recurrence after transplantation.

Extended criteria for liver transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma. A retrospective, multicentric validation study in Belgium

BACKGROUND

Recent studies indicate that a group of patients with cirrhosis receiving a liver transplantation for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) beyond the Milan Criteria (MC) can achieve a similar outcome compared to patients within these criteria. This study aims to investigate the value of the Asan critera (AC), up-to-7 criteria (UT7), French alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) model and Metroticket 2.0 (MT2.0) model compared to the MC.

METHODS

526 patients transplanted for non-metastatic HCC were analyzed. Patient groups within and beyond MC and extended criteria were determined according to radiological assessment and AFP value at listing.

RESULTS

Overall survival (OS) and recurrence (RR) rates were similar between patients within MC and all extended criteria. Five-year OS within MC was 71.3% compared to 70.9% for AC, 71.4% for UT7, 69.7% for AFP-model and 71.0% for MT2.0 criteria. Five-year RR within MC was 12.3% compared to 13.5% for AC, 13.0% for UT7, 14.3% for AFP-model and 13.2% for MT2.0 criteria. Patients beyond MC but within the extended criteria had tendency towards higher recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

All validated extended criteria (AC, UT7, AFP-model and MT2.0) could be proposed as alternatives to the MC with similar outcome. Prospective data are awaited to assess recurrence beyond MC.

Is it Time to Abandon the Milan Criteria?: Results of a Bicoastal US Collaboration to Redefine Hepatocellular Carcinoma Liver Transplantation Selection Policies

OBJECTIVES

European liver transplant (LT) centers have moved away from using the Milan Criteria (MC) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patient selection, turning to models including tumor biological indices, namely alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). We present the first US model to incorporate an AFP response (AFP-R), with comparisons to MC and French-AFP models (F-AFP).

METHODS

AFP-R was measured as differences between maximum and final pre-LT AFP in HCC patients undergoing LT at 3 US centers (2001 to 2013). Cox and competing risk-regression analyses identified predictors of recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

Of 1450 patients, 235 (16.2%) were outside MC. Tumor size, number, and AFP-R were independent predictors of RFS and were assigned weighted points based on Cox-regression analysis. An AFP-R consistently < 200 ng/mL predicted the best outcome. A 3-tiered competing-risk RFS model, the New York/California (NYCA) score, was developed, accurately discriminating between groups (P < 0.001), and correlating with overall survival (P < 0.001). Two hundred one of 235 patients outside MC (85.5%) would be recategorized into NYCA low/acceptable-risk groups. The c-statistic for our NYCA score is 0.731 compared with 0.613 for MC and 0.658 for F-AFP (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Incorporation of AFP-R into HCC selection criteria allows for MC expansion. As United Network for Organ Sharing considers adding AFP to selection algorithms, the NYCA score provides an objective, user-friendly tool for centers to appropriately risk-stratify patients.