Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Beyond Milan Criteria After Resection: Validation of a Clinical Risk Score in an International Cohort

Prognostic implications of CK19 positivity in patients with early recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to compare the survival outcomes of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) between patients with early recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) after hepatic resection, stratified by cytokeratin (CK) 19 expression.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 63 patients with early rHCC after hepatic resection who underwent TACE between January 2017 and December 2021. Patients were divided into two groups based on CK19 expression: CK19-negative (n=31) and CK19-positive (n=32). Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared between the two groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for OS and PFS.

RESULTS

The CK19-negative group demonstrated a significantly longer median OS compared to the CK19-positive group (635 days vs. 432 days, p=0.013). Similarly, the CK19-negative group had a longer median PFS than the CK19-positive group (291 days vs. 117 days, p=0.014). Multivariate Cox analysis identified Child-Pugh A grade, CK19-negative expression, and increased TACE sessions as protective factors for OS. No severe TACE-related adverse events were observed.

CONCLUSION

In patients with early rHCC after hepatic resection, those with CK19-positive expression had poorer survival outcomes following TACE compared to CK19-negative patients. These findings suggest the need for additional therapies to improve survival in CK19-positive individuals.

Preoperative predictors of very early recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond the Milan criteria

PURPOSE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients beyond the Milan criteria (MC) who undergo liver resection have high recurrence rates and poor prognosis, and sometimes experience very early recurrence (VER) within six months after surgery. This study aimed to identify predictive factors, including the newly proposed C-reactive protein (CRP)-albumin-lymphocyte (CALLY) index, for VER after surgery for HCC beyond MC.

METHODS

We included patients who underwent initial liver resection for HCC beyond MC between 2000 and 2021. We defined VER as recurrence within six months after surgery and compared the clinicopathological factors and long-term prognosis between the VER and non-VER groups. Multivariate analysis identified risk factors for VER and evaluated the potential for prognostic stratification using these factors.

RESULTS

The overall survival (OS) and post-recurrence survival were significantly worse in the VER group compared to patients with recurrence in 7-12 months, over 12 months, and without recurrence (median survival time (MST) 1.16 vs. 5.14, 7.26, and undefined; and MST 0.81 vs. 4.34, and 5.48, respectively, P < 0.01). Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 200, non-simple nodule (SN) type on preoperative imaging, and CALLY index < 2.8 were independent prognostic factors (P < 0.01 for all). An increased risk factor count was correlated with poorer VER and OS rates, allowing for effective stratification.

CONCLUSION

VER after hepatic resection for HCC beyond MC was associated with a significantly poorer prognosis. AFP, non-SN type on imaging, and CALLY index are valuable preoperative indicators. Patients with multiple risk factors have a worse prognosis and may be candidates for multimodal treatment.

Similar recurrence after curative treatment of HBV-related HCC, regardless of HBV replication activity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Antiviral therapy (AVT) is required in patients with newly diagnosed hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), if HBV DNA is detectable. We compared the risk of recurrence according to HBV replication activity at the curative treatment of HBV-related HCC.

METHODS

Patients with HBV-related HCC who underwent surgical resection or radiofrequency ablation between 2013 and 2018 were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. Patients were categorized into two groups according to HBV replication activity at the curative treatment of HBV-related HCC (group 1: patients who met the AVT indication for HBV-related HCC due to detectable HBV DNA but did not meet the AVT indication if without HCC; group 2: patients who met the AVT indication, regardless of HCC).

RESULTS

In the entire cohort (n = 911), HCC recurred in 303 (33.3%) patients during a median follow-up of 4.7 years. After multivariate adjustment, group 2 showed a statistically similar risk of HCC recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.18, P = 0.332) compared to that of group 1. In addition, group 2 showed statistically similar risks of early (< 2 years; aHR = 1.31) and late (≥ 2 years; aHR = 0.83) recurrence than that of group 1 (all P>0.05). Propensity score matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis also yielded similar risks of HCC recurrence between the two groups (all P>0.05, log-rank tests).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of HCC recurrence in patients who received curative treatment for newly diagnosed HBV-related HCC was similar regardless of HBV replication activity, if AVT was properly initiated.

Risk factors, patterns, and outcome predictors of late recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection: A large cohort study with long-term follow-up results

BACKGROUND

Late recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection significantly influences long-term patient survival outcomes, and yet it remains understudied. This study aims to explore the risk factors and patterns of late recurrence and predictors of subsequent outcome.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study analyzed 1,701 consecutive patients who achieved a disease-free survival period exceeding 2 years after curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma between 2001 and 2018. Univariate and multivariate analyses of factors associated with late recurrence and death after recurrence were conducted using Cox's models.

RESULTS

The mean age of patients was 60.2 years, with 76.8% being male. During a median follow-up of 8.1 years, 653 patients (38.4%) experienced late recurrence, with median time to recurrence being 4.0 years (interquartile range, 2.7-6.0). Factors such as age >60, chronic hepatitis C, cirrhosis, high albumin-bilirubin grade, absence of family history, multiple tumors, satellite nodules, alpha-fetoprotein levels <400 ng/mL, and minor hepatic resection were identified as risk factors for late recurrence. Among patients with late recurrence, 131 (20.1%) underwent surgical treatment, 272 (41.7%) received radiofrequency ablation, and 27 (4.1%) exhibited extrahepatic lesions. A higher-high albumin-bilirubin grade, recurrent tumor >3 cm, and nonsurgical treatment emerged as predictors of death after late recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Over one-third of patients who remain disease-free for more than 2 years postresection will experience late recurrence during subsequent follow-up. For 2-year disease-free survivors, risk factors for late recurrence differ from early recurrence. Treating underlying hepatitis is of paramount importance, given its association with both the risk of late recurrence and survival outcomes post-recurrence.

The role of adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization following repeated curative resection/ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma with early recurrence: a propensity score matching analysis

BACKGROUND

The role of adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) following repeated resection/ablation for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of adjuvant TACE following repeated resection or ablation in patients with early recurrent HCC.

METHODS

Information for patients who underwent repeated surgery or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for early recurrent HCCs (< 2 years) at our institution from January 2017 to December 2020 were collected. Patients were divided into adjuvant TACE and observation groups according to whether they received adjuvant TACE or not. The recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared between the two groups before and after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

Of the 225 patients enrolled, the median time of HCC recurrence was 11 months (IQR, 6-16 months). After repeated surgery or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for recurrent tumors, 45 patients (20%) received adjuvant TACE while the remaining 180 (80%) didn't. There were no significant differences in RFS (P = 0.325) and OS (P = 0.072) between adjuvant TACE and observation groups before PSM. There were also no significant differences in RFS (P = 0.897) and OS (P = 0.090) between the two groups after PSM. Multivariable analysis suggested that multiple tumors, liver cirrhosis, and RFA were independent risk factors for the re-recurrence of HCC.

CONCLUSION

Adjuvant TACE after repeated resection or ablation for early recurrent HCCs was not associated with a long-term survival benefit in this single-center cohort.

Which factors predict tumor recurrence and survival after curative hepatectomy in hepatocellular carcinoma? Results from a European institution

BACKGROUND

High tumor recurrence and dismal survival rates after curative intended resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are still concerning. The primary goal was to assess predictive factors associated with disease-free (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in a subset of patients with HCC undergoing hepatic resection (HR).

METHODS

Between 08/2004-7/2021, HR for HCC was performed in 188 patients at our institution. Data allocation was conducted from a prospectively maintained database. The prognostic impact of clinico-pathological factors on DFS and OS was assessed by using uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Survival curves were generated with the Kaplan Meier method.

RESULTS

The postoperative 1-, 3- and 5- year overall DFS and OS rates were 77.9%, 49.7%, 41% and 72.7%, 54.7%, 38.8%, respectively. Tumor diameter ≥ 45 mm [HR 1.725; (95% CI 1.091-2.727); p = 0.020], intra-abdominal abscess [HR 3.812; (95% CI 1.859-7.815); p < 0.0001], and preoperative chronic alcohol abuse [HR 1.831; (95% CI 1.102-3.042); p = 0.020] were independently predictive for DFS while diabetes mellitus [HR 1.714; (95% CI 1.147-2.561); p = 0.009), M-Stage [HR 2.656; (95% CI 1.034-6.826); p = 0.042], V-Stage [HR 1.946; (95% CI 1.299-2.915); p = 0.001, Sepsis [HR 10.999; (95% CI 5.167-23.412); p < 0.0001], and ISGLS B/C [HR 2.008; (95% CI 1.273-3.168); p = 0.003] were significant determinants of OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high postoperative recurrence rates, an acceptable long-term survival in patients after curative HR could be achieved. The Identification of parameters related to OS and DFS improves patient-centered treatment and surveillance strategies.

Assessing recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma by a predictive model based on sarcopenia

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia may be associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatectomy. But traditional single clinical variables are still insufficient to predict recurrence. We still lack effective prediction models for recent recurrence (time to recurrence < 2 years) after hepatectomy for HCC.

AIM

To establish an interventable prediction model to estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS) after hepatectomy for HCC based on sarcopenia.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 283 hepatitis B-related HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for the first time, and the skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar spine was measured by preoperative computed tomography. 94 of these patients were enrolled for external validation. Cox multivariate analysis was per-formed to identify the risk factors of postoperative recurrence in training cohort. A nomogram model was developed to predict the RFS of HCC patients, and its predictive performance was validated. The predictive efficacy of this model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia [Hazard ratio(HR) = 1.767, 95%CI: 1.166-2.678, P < 0.05], alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 40 ng/mL (HR = 1.984, 95%CI: 1.307-3.011, P < 0.05), the maximum diameter of tumor > 5 cm (HR = 2.222, 95%CI: 1.285-3.842, P < 0.05), and hepatitis B virus DNA level ≥ 2000 IU/mL (HR = 2.1, 95%CI: 1.407-3.135, P < 0.05) were independent risk factors associated with postoperative recurrence of HCC. Based on the sarcopenia to assess the RFS model of hepatectomy with hepatitis B-related liver cancer disease (SAMD) was established combined with other the above risk factors. The area under the curve of the SAMD model was 0.782 (95%CI: 0.705-0.858) in the training cohort (sensitivity 81%, specificity 63%) and 0.773 (95%CI: 0.707-0.838) in the validation cohort. Besides, a SAMD score ≥ 110 was better to distinguish the high-risk group of postoperative recurrence of HCC.

CONCLUSION

Sarcopenia is associated with recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis B-related HCC. A nutritional status-based prediction model is first established for postoperative recurrence of hepatitis B-related HCC, which is superior to other models and contributes to prognosis prediction.

Factors affecting overall survival and disease-free survival after surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma: a nomogram-based prognostic model-a Western European multicenter study

Few studies have assessed the clinical implications of the combination of different prognostic indicators for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of resected hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic factors in HCC patients for OS and DFS outcomes and establish a nomogram-based prognostic model to predict the DFS of HCC. A multicenter, retrospective European study was conducted through the collection of data on 413 consecutive treated patients with a first diagnosis of HCC between January 2010 and December 2020. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify all independent risk factors for OS and DFS outcomes. A nomogram prognostic staging model was subsequently established for DFS and its precision was verified internally by the concordance index (C-Index) and externally by calibration curves. For OS, multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated Child-Pugh B7 score (HR 4.29; 95% CI 1.74-10.55; p = 0.002) as an independent prognostic factor, along with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage ≥ B (HR 1.95; 95% CI 1.07-3.54; p = 0.029), microvascular invasion (MVI) (HR 2.54; 95% CI 1.38-4.67; p = 0.003), R1/R2 resection margin (HR 1.57; 95% CI 0.85-2.90; p = 0.015), and Clavien-Dindo Grade 3 or more (HR 2.73; 95% CI 1.44-5.18; p = 0.002). For DFS, multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated BCLC stage ≥ B (HR 2.15; 95% CI 1.34-3.44; p = 0.002) as an independent prognostic factor, along with multiple nodules (HR 2.04; 95% CI 1.25-3.32; p = 0.004), MVI (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.19-2.75; p = 0.005), satellite nodules (HR 1.63; 95% CI 1.09-2.45; p = 0.018), and R1/R2 resection margin (HR 3.39; 95% CI 2.19-5.25; < 0.001). The C-Index of the nomogram, tailored based on the previous significant factors, showed good accuracy (0.70). Internal and external calibration curves for the probability of DFS rate showed optimal consistency and fit well between the nomogram-based prediction and actual observations. MVI and R1/R2 resection margins should be considered as significant OS and DFS predictors, while satellite nodules should be included as a significant DFS predictor. The nomogram-based prognostic model for DFS provides a more effective prognosis assessment for resected HCC patients, allowing for individualized treatment plans.

Adjuvant and neoadjuvant therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma

Immune-oncology-based regimens have shown efficacy in advanced HCC and have been implemented as standard of care as first-line therapy. Their efficacy, including high response rates, and safety justify their evaluation in earlier disease stages. Following negative results for adjuvant sorafenib in the global STORM trial in 2015, 4 global phase 3 trials, featuring different immune checkpoint inhibitor combinations, entered in parallel the race in the adjuvant setting. The IMbrave050 trial, comparing adjuvant atezolizumab in combination with bevacizumab to active surveillance following curative-intent resection or ablation, was the first to report, fast-tracking the results of the first interim analysis and demonstrating an improvement in recurrence-free survival. The trial has provoked a discussion on the horizon of expectations from adjuvant treatment and the clinical relevance of efficacy endpoints. Moreover, major pathological responses reported from early phase 2 data in the neoadjuvant setting provide a strong rationale for the evaluation of these concepts in phase 3 trials. In this review, we summarize current evidence and outline future directions for systemic therapies in early-stage HCC.

Meta-analysis of Prognostic Factors for Overall Survival Among Resected Patients with Spontaneous Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Our meta-analysis was performed to explore the prognostic factors for overall survival among post-hepatectomy patients with spontaneous ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma (SRHCC).

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were all searched up for relevant studies regarding prognostic factors with SRHCC. RevMan5.3 software and Stata 14.0 software were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

A total of nineteen studies with 1876 resected SRHCC patients were finally identified. Pooled results indicated that preoperative AFP (high vs low) (P = 0.003), concurrent liver cirrhosis (yes vs no) (P = 0.02), preoperative liver function (child A vs non-child A) (P = 0.0007), tumor size (large vs small) (P < 0.00001), tumor number (solitary vs multiple) (P = 0.002), satellite foci (yes vs no) (P = 0.0006), micro-vascular invasion (yes vs no) (P < 0.00001), type of hepatectomy (major or minor) (P = 0.04), surgical margin (R + vs R -) (P < 0.00001), and type of hepatectomy (emergency hepatectomy vs staged hepatectomy) (P = 0.005) were prognostic factors for overall survival among post-hepatectomy SRHCC patients.

CONCLUSION

Apart from some conventional prognostic factors identified in resected patients with SRHCC, numerous prognostic factors have also been unmasked, which might provide clinical reference to stratify patients with different therapeutic regimes.

Tumor necrosis as a predictor of early tumor recurrence after resection in patients with hepatoma

BACKGROUND

Tumor necrosis is a significant risk factor affecting patients' prognosis after liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to develop a model with tumor necrosis as a variable to predict early tumor recurrence in HCC patients undergoing LR.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent LR between 2010 and 2018 for newly diagnosed HCC but did not receive neoadjuvant therapy were enrolled in this retrospective study. Six predictive factors based on pathological features-tumor size > 5 cm, multiple tumors, high-grade tumor differentiation, tumor necrosis, microvascular invasion, and cirrhosis-were chosen a priori based on clinical relevance to construct a multivariate logistic regression model. The variables were always retained in the model. The impact of each variable on early tumor recurrence within one year of LR was estimated and visualized using a nomogram. The nomogram's performance was evaluated using calibration plots with bootstrapping.

RESULTS

Early tumor recurrence was observed in 161 (21.3%) patients. The concordance index of the proposed nomogram was 0.722. The calibration plots showed good agreement between nomogram predictions and actual observations of early recurrence.

CONCLUSION

We developed a nomogram incorporating tumor necrosis to predict early recurrence of HCC after LR. Its predictive accuracy is satisfactory.

Abbreviated MRI for Secondary Surveillance of Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Presumed Curative Treatment

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the performance of abbreviated MRI (AMRI) for secondary surveillance of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative treatment.

PURPOSE

To evaluate the detection performance of AMRI for secondary surveillance of HCC after curative treatment.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

POPULATION

A total of 243 patients (183 men and 60 women; median age, 65 years) who underwent secondary surveillance for HCC using gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI after more than 2 year of disease-free period following curative treatment, including surgical resection or radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

A 3.0 T/noncontrast AMRI (NC-AMRI) (T2-weighted fast spin-echo, T1-weighted gradient echo, and diffusion-weighted images), hepatobiliary phase AMRI (HBP-AMRI) (T2-weighted fast spin-echo, diffusion-weighted, and HBP images), and full-sequence MRI ASSESSMENT: Four board-certified radiologists independently reviewed NC-AMRI, HBP-AMRI, and full-sequence MRI sets of each patient for detecting recurrent HCC.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Per-lesion sensitivity, per-patient sensitivity and specificity for HCC detection at each set were compared using generalized estimating equation.

RESULTS

A total of 42 recurred HCCs were confirmed in the 39 patients. The per-lesion and per-patient sensitivities did not show significant differences among the three image sets for either reviewer (P ≥ 0.358): per-lesion sensitivity: 59.5%-83.3%, 59.5%-85.7%, and 59.5%-83.3%, and per-patient sensitivity: 53.9%-83.3%, 56.4%-85.7%, and 53.9%-83.3% for NC-AMRI, HBP-AMRI, and full-sequence MRI, respectively. Per-lesion pooled sensitivities of NC-AMRI, HBP-AMRI, and full-sequence MRI were 72.6%, 73.2%, and 73.2%, with difference of -0.6% (95% confidence interval: -6.7, 5.5) between NC-AMRI and full-sequence MRI and 0.0% (-6.1, 6.1) between HBP-AMRI and full-sequence MRI. Per-patient specificity was not significantly different among the three image sets for both reviewers (95.6%-97.1%, 95.6%-97.1%, and 97.6%-98.5% for NC-AMRI and HBP-AMRI, respectively; P ≥ 0.117).

DATA CONCLUSION

NC-AMRI and HBP-AMRI showed no significant difference in detection performance to that of full-sequence gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI during secondary surveillance for HCC after more than 2-year disease free interval following curative treatment. Based on its good detection performance, short scan time, and lack of contrast agent-associated risks, NC-AMRI is a promising option for the secondary surveillance of HCC.

EVIDENCE LEVEL

3.

TECHNICAL EFFICACY

Stage 2.

Evaluation of dynamic recurrence risk for locally advanced gastric cancer in the clinical setting of adjuvant chemotherapy: a real-world study with IPTW-based conditional recurrence analysis

BACKGROUND

The long-term dynamic recurrence hazard of locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC) in the clinical setting of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) remains unclear.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the dynamic recurrence risk of LAGC in patients who received ACT or not.

METHODS

The study assessed data from patients with LAGC who underwent radical gastrectomy between January, 2010 and October, 2015. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was performed to reduce selection bias between the ACT and observational (OBS) groups. Conditional recurrence-free survival (cRFS) and restricted mean survival time (RMST) were used to assess the survival differences.

RESULTS

In total, 1,661 LAGC patients were included (ACT group, n = 1,236 and OBS group, n = 425). The recurrence hazard gradually declined; in contrast, cRFS increased with RFS already accrued. Following IPTW adjustment, the cRFS rates were higher in the ACT group than those in the OBS group for patients at baseline or with accrued RFS of 1 and 2 years (p˂0.05). However, the cRFS rates of the ACT group were comparable with those of the OBS group for patients with accrued RFS of 3 or more years (p > 0.05). Likewise, the 5-year △RMST between the ACT and OBS groups demonstrated a similar trend. Moreover, the hematological metastasis rate of the ACT group was significantly lower than that of the OBS group for patients at baseline or with accrued RFS of 1 and 2 years, respectively (p˂0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Although ACT could provide substantial benefits for patients with LAGC, the differences in recurrence hazard between the ACT and OBS groups may attenuate over time, which could help guide surveillance and alleviate patients' anxiety. Further prospective large-scale studies are warranted.

EpCAM, Ki67, and ESM1 Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is a good therapeutic decision, cures hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and promotes survival of cases with unrespectable HCC based on the Milan criteria. HCC still recur after LT. Identifying high risk tissue markers that predict recurrence becomes important for LT decision-making. Little is known regarding use of tissue expression of epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) to predict HCC recurrence. This study investigates the role of EpCAM, Ki67, and endothelial-cell-specific molecule-1 (ESM1) as immunohistochemical markers to predict HCC recurrence after LT. It included 52 explanted HCC tissues from Egyptian patients who had undergone LT for HCC according to Milan criteria. Immunohistochemical staining was done on paraffin-embedded formalin-fixed tissue sections. HCC recurrence occurred in 13.5% cases. Positive EpCAM expression in HCC, was significantly associated with HCC recurrence, ( P =0.011), achieving 71.43% sensitivity, 84.44% specificity and 78.8% accuracy in predicting recurrence. High Ki67 percentage was significantly associated with HCC recurrence, ( P =0.005), achieving 57.14% sensitivity, 86.67% specificity and 82.69% accuracy in predicting HCC recurrence. ESM1 showed significant association with HCC recurrence ( P =0.041), with 71.43% sensitivity, 71.11% specificity and 71.15% accuracy in predicting HCC recurrence. EpCAM score and Ki67 percentage showed positive correlation. In conclusion, it is suggested that large tumor size (≥3 cm), advanced pathologic staging and Ki67 could be stratified as high risk predictors of HCC recurrence after LT. Although higher classes of Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification, high serum alpha-fetoprotein, microvascular invasion, positive EpCAM and ESM1 are stratified as lower risk predictors of HCC recurrence after LT.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of transarterial chemoembolization combined with lenvatinib as the first-line treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Purpose: Results from the LAUNCH trial suggest transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in combination with lenvatinib is significantly more effective than lenvatinib as a first-line treatment option for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the cost of TACE is substantial. This study compares the cost-effectiveness of TACE in combination with lenvatinib (TACE-LEN) with that of lenvatinib alone as the first-line treatment for advanced HCC from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. Methods: Markov models of different health states were constructed to simulate first-line treatment, disease progression, and survival in patients with advanced HCC. Clinical efficacy was obtained from the LAUNCH trial. The cost of drugs was sourced from national tender prices, and the treatment cost of weight-decreased was obtained from the Fujian Provincial Bureau of Prices. Other costs and utility values were based on the published literature. Total costs, life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comprised the model output. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to validate model robustness and subgroup analyses were also conducted. Results: Analysis of the model showed that compared to lenvatinib, TACE-LEN improved effectiveness by 1.60 QALYs at a total cost increase of $48,874.69, with an ICER value of $30,482.13/QALY. A one-way sensitivity analysis found that the progression-free survival utility value per year had the greatest impact on the model. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that TACE-LEN had a 97.9% probability of being cost-effective as the first-line treatment option for advanced HCC compared to lenvatinib when the willingness-to-pay (WTP) value was $38,201/QALY (three times the Chinese GDP per capita in 2022). Subgroup analysis showed that all subgroups of patients preferred TACE-LEN. However, when the WTP threshold was below $30,300/QALY, TACE-LEN is no longer cost-effective. Conclusion: Our study found TACE-LEN to be a cost-effective treatment option for patients with advanced HCC compared to lenvatinib from a Chinese healthcare system perspective, but not so in low-income provinces in China.

Microwave-activated Cu-doped zirconium metal-organic framework for a highly effective combination of microwave dynamic and thermal therapy

Percutaneous microwave ablation (PMA) is a thermoablative method used as a minimally invasive treatment for liver cancer. However, the application of PMA is limited by its insufficient ROS generation efficiency and thermal effects. Herein, a new microwave-activated Cu-doped zirconium metal-organic framework (MOF) (CuZr MOF) used for enhanced PMA has a significantly improved microwave sensitizing effect. Owing to the strong inelastic collisions between ions confined in numerous micropores, CuZr MOF has strong microwave sensitivity and high thermal conversion efficiency, which can significantly improve microwave thermal therapy (MTT). Moreover, because of the existence of Cu2+ ions, a further benefit of CuZr MOF is their Fenton-like activity, in particular, microwaves used as an excitation source for microwave dynamic therapy (MDT) can improve the Fenton-like reaction to maximize the synergistic effectiveness of cancer therapy. Importantly, CuZr MOF can inhibit the production of heat shock proteins (HSPs) by producing abundant ROS to enhance tumor destruction. Mechanistically, we found that CuZr MOF + MW treatment modulates ferroptosis-mediated tumor cell death by targeting the HMOX1/GPX4 axis. In summary, this study develops a novel CuZr MOF microwave sensitizer with great potential for synergistic treatment of liver cancer by MTT and MDT.

Optimal treatment for small HCC (<3 cm): Resection, liver transplantation, or locoregional therapy?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains the most common form of liver cancer, accounting for 90% of all primary liver cancers. Up to 30% of HCC cases could be small (2-3 cm in diameter) at the time of diagnosis with advances in imaging techniques and surveillance programmes. Treating patients with early-stage HCC can be complex and often requires interdisciplinary care, owing to the wide and increasing variety of treatment options, which include liver resection, liver transplantation, and various locoregional therapies offered by interventional radiology and radiation oncology. Decisions regarding the optimal management strategy for a patient involve many considerations, including patient- and tumour-specific characteristics, as well as socioeconomic factors. In this review, we aim to comprehensively summarise the commonly used therapies for single, small HCC (<3 cm), with a focus on the impact of tumour size (<2 cm vs. 2-3 cm), as well as a brief discussion on the cost-effectiveness of the different treatment options.

Systemic Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Therapies in the Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma-A Narrative Review

The burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continues to pose a significant global health problem. Several systemic therapies have recently been shown to improve survival for patients with unresectable disease. However, evidence to support the use of neoadjuvant or adjuvant systemic therapies in patients with resectable disease is limited, despite the high risk of recurrence. Neoadjuvant and adjuvant systemic therapies are being investigated for their potential to reduce recurrence after resection and improve overall survival. Our review identified various early-phase clinical trials showing impressive preliminary signals of pathologic complete response in resectable disease, and others suggesting that neoadjuvant therapies-particularly when combined with adjuvant strategies-may convert unresectable disease to resectable disease and cause significant tumor necrosis, potentially decreasing recurrence rates. The role of adjuvant therapies alone may also play a part in the management of these patients, particularly in reducing recurrence rates. Heterogeneity in trial design, therapies used, patient selection, and a scarcity of randomized phase III trials necessitate the cautious implementation of these treatment strategies. Future research is required to identify predictive biomarkers, optimize the timing and type of therapeutic combinations, and minimize treatment-related adverse effects, thereby personalizing and enhancing treatment strategies for patients with resectable and borderline resectable HCC.

Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Systemic Therapies in Loco-Regional Treatments for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Are We at the Dawn of a New Era?

Despite maximizing techniques and patient selection, liver resection and ablation for HCC are still associated with high rates of recurrence. To date, HCC is the only cancer with no proven adjuvant or neoadjuvant therapy used in association to potentially curative treatment. Perioperative combination treatments are urgently needed to reduce recurrence rates and improve overall survival. Immunotherapy has demonstrated encouraging results in the setting of adjuvant and neoadjuvant treatments for non-hepatic malignancies. Conclusive data are not yet available in the context of liver neoplasms. However, growing evidence suggests that immunotherapy, and in particular immune checkpoint inhibitors, could represent the cornerstone of an epochal change in the treatment of HCC, improving recurrence rates and overall survival through combination treatments. Furthermore, the identification of predictive biomarkers of treatment response could drive the management of HCC into the era of a precision medicine. The purpose of this review is to analyze the state of the art in the setting of adjuvant and neoadjuvant therapies for HCC in association with loco-regional treatments in patients not eligible for liver transplantation and to hypothesize future scenarios.

Predictors and long-term prognosis of early and late recurrence for patients undergoing hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: a large-scale multicenter study

Background

Recurrence is common among patients undergoing hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which greatly limits long-term survival. We aimed to identify predictors and long-term prognosis of early and late recurrence after HCC resection.

Methods

Multicenter data of patients who underwent HCC resection between 2002 and 2016 were analyzed. Recurrence was divided into early (≤2 years) and late recurrence (>2 years after surgery). Predictors of early and late recurrence, and prognostic factors of post-recurrence survival (PRS) were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

Among 1,426 patients, 554 (38.8%) and 348 (24.4%) developed early and late recurrence, respectively. Independent predictors associated with early recurrence included preoperative alpha-fetoprotein level >400 µg/L, resection margin <1 cm, and tumor size >5.0 cm, multiplicity, macrovascular and microvascular invasion, and satellites of the initial tumor at the first diagnosis of HCC; independent predictors associated with late recurrence included male, cirrhosis, and tumor size >5.0 cm, multiplicity, macrovascular and microvascular invasion, and satellites of the initial tumor. Patients with early recurrence had a lower likelihood of undergoing potentially curative treatments for recurrence (37.2% vs. 48.0%, P<0.001) and a worse median PRS (13.5 vs. 36.6 months, P<0.001) vs. patients who had late recurrence. Multivariate analysis revealed that early recurrence and irregular postoperative surveillance were independently associated with worse PRS [hazard ratio (HR) =1.250, 95% CI: 1.016-1.538, P=0.035; and HR =1.983, 95% CI: 1.677-2.345, P<0.001].

Conclusions

Predictors associated with early and late recurrence after curative resection for patients with HCC were generally same, although several did differ. Patients with late recurrence had better long-term survival than patients with early recurrence.

Outcomes of laparoscopic radiofrequency ablation versus percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Few studies have compared the therapeutic outcomes in patients with HCC who underwent laparoscopic radiofrequency ablation (LRFA) versus percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (PRFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore, this study compared the recurrence and survival outcomes of the two RFA methods in patients with HCC.

METHODS

Recurrence and overall survival outcomes were evaluated in 307 patients who underwent LRFA (n = 151) or PRFA (n = 156) as a treatment method for de novo HCC. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis was performed to reduce the impact of treatment selection bias.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in major baseline characteristics between the LRFA and PRFA groups. However, the proportion of cirrhotic patients was higher in the LRFA group, whereas the LRFA group had more tumors and a more advanced tumor-node-metastasis stage. Moreover, the mean tumor size was significantly larger in the LRFA group than in the PRFA group. In a multivariate analysis, serum albumin level, more than three tumors, and the RFA method were identified as significant predictors of recurrence-free survival. Moreover, for the overall survival of HCC patients, serum albumin levels, days of hospital stay during RFA, and the RFA method were independent predictors. In the IPTW-adjusted analysis, the LRFA group showed significantly higher recurrence-free survival and overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed that compared with PRFA, LRFA was associated with longer recurrence-free survival and favorable overall survival in patients with HCC. Therefore, LRFA should be considered the primary therapy in patients with HCC eligible for RFA.

A novel nomogram predicting the early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after R0 resection

Background

Early tumor recurrence is one of the most significant poor prognostic factors for patients with HCC after R0 resection. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of early recurrence, in addition, to develop a nomogram model predicting early recurrence of HCC patients.

Methods

A total of 481 HCC patients after R0 resection were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 337) and a validation cohort (n = 144). Risk factors for early recurrence were determined based on Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. A nomogram incorporating independent risk predictors was established and validated.

Results

Early recurrence occurred in 37.8% of the 481 patients who underwent curative liver resection of HCC. AFP ≥ 400 ng/mL (HR: 1.662; P = 0.008), VEGF-A among 127.8 to 240.3 pg/mL (HR: 1.781, P = 0.012), VEGF-A > 240.3 pg/mL (HR: 2.552, P < 0.001), M1 subgroup of MVI (HR: 2.221, P = 0.002), M2 subgroup of MVI (HR: 3.120, P < 0.001), intratumor necrosis (HR: 1.666, P = 0.011), surgical margin among 5.0 to 10.0 mm (HR: 1.601, P = 0.043) and surgical margin < 5.0 mm (HR: 1.790, P = 0.012) were found to be independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival in the training cohort and were used for constructing the nomogram. The nomogram indicated good predictive performance with an AUC of 0.781 (95% CI: 0.729-0.832) and 0.808 (95% CI: 0.731-0.886) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively.

Conclusions

Elevated serum concentrations of AFP and VEGF-A, microvascular invasion, intratumor necrosis, surgical margin were independent risk factors of early intrahepatic recurrence. A reliable nomogram model which incorporated blood biomarkers and pathological variables was established and validated. The nomogram achieved desirable effectiveness in predicting early recurrence in HCC patients.

2022 KLCA-NCC Korea practice guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide and the fourth most common cancer among men in South Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle and old age. The current practice guidelines will provide useful and sensible advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 49 experts in the fields of hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology, and radiation oncology from the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2018 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions. These guidelines provide useful information and direction for all clinicians, trainees, and researchers in the diagnosis and treatment of HCC.

Predictors of early and late hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most frequent liver neoplasm, and its incidence rates are constantly increasing. Despite the availability of potentially curative treatments (liver transplantation, surgical resection, thermal ablation), long-term outcomes are affected by a high recurrence rate (up to 70% of cases 5 years after treatment). HCC recurrence within 2 years of treatment is defined as “early” and is generally caused by the occult intrahepatic spread of the primary neoplasm and related to the tumor burden. A recurrence that occurs after 2 years of treatment is defined as “late” and is related to de novo HCC, independent of the primary neoplasm. Early HCC recurrence has a significantly poorer prognosis and outcome than late recurrence. Different pathogenesis corresponds to different predictors of the risk of early or late recurrence. An adequate knowledge of predictive factors and recurrence risk stratification guides the therapeutic strategy and post-treatment surveillance. Patients at high risk of HCC recurrence should be referred to treatments with the lowest recurrence rate and when standardized to combined or adjuvant therapy regimens. This review aimed to expose the recurrence predictors and examine the differences between predictors of early and late recurrence.

Interval dynamics of transplantability for hepatocellular carcinoma after primary curative resection: risk factors for nontransplantable recurrence

BACKGROUND

To investigate the changes in transplantability between primary and recurrent Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatic resection (HR) and the risk factors for nontransplantable recurrence (NTR).

METHODS

Consecutive 3122 patients who received HR for primary HCC between 2001 and 2019 were analyzed for changes in transplantability. Predictors of survival and NTR were evaluated using a competing risk analysis.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 78.3 months, the 5-year overall survival rate was 82.6%. Also, 58.2% of them developed recurrence after a median of 45.6 months. Recurrence occurred in 1205 and 611 patients with primary transplantable and nontransplantable HCC, respectively, of whom 26.1% and 63.2%, respectively, had NTR. Tumor diameter >3 cm [subdistribution hazard ratios (95% CI), 2.00 (1.62-2.48)], major resection [1.20 (1.00-1.43)], pathological grade >2 [1.28 (1.07-1.52)], microvascular invasion [1.74 (1.45-2.08)], and early recurrence (<1 year) [9.22 (7.83-10.87)] were associated with NTR. The overall transplantable pool increased from 72.3% to 77.5%.

CONCLUSION

Microvascular invasion and early recurrence were risk factors for NTR. Nonetheless, the transplantable pool increased after HR, 41.8% of the patients had no recurrence and may not require liver transplantation. If the patient's liver function is acceptable, HR should be considered the treatment of choice for HCC.

2022 KLCA-NCC Korea Practice Guidelines for the Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide and the fourth most common cancer among men in South Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle and old age. The current practice guidelines will provide useful and sensible advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 49 experts in the fields of hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology, and radiation oncology from the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2018 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions. These guidelines provide useful information and direction for all clinicians, trainees, and researchers in the diagnosis and treatment of HCC.

Radiomics nomogram based on multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging for predicting early recurrence in small hepatocellular carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation

BACKGROUND

There are few studies on the application of radiomics in the risk prediction of early recurrence (ER) after radiofrequency ablation (RFA). This study evaluated the value of a multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, mpMRI)-based radiomics nomogram in predicting ER of small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after RFA.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on 90 patients with small HCC who were treated with RFA. Patients were divided into two groups according to recurrence within 2 years: the ER group (n=38) and the non-ER group (n=52). Preoperative T1WI, T2WI, and contrast-enhanced MRI (CE-MRI) were used for radiomic analysis. Tumor segmentation was performed on the images and applied to extract 1316 radiomics features. The most predictive features were selected using analysis of variance + Mann-Whitney, Spearman's rank correlation test, random forest (importance), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis. Radiomics models based on each sequence or combined sequences were established using logistic regression analysis. A predictive nomogram was constructed based on the radiomics score (rad-score) and clinical predictors. The predictive efficiency of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical efficacy of the nomogram.

RESULTS

The radiomics model mpMRI, which is based on T1WI, T2WI, and CE-MRI sequences, showed the best predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.812 for the validation cohort. Combined with the clinical risk factors of albumin level, number of tumors, and rad-score of mpMRI, the AUC of the preoperative predictive nomogram in the training and validation cohorts were 0.869 and 0.812, respectively. DCA demonstrated that the combined nomogram is clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

The multi-parametric MRI-based radiomics nomogram has a high predictive value for ER of small HCC after RFA, which could be helpful for personalized risk stratification and further treatment decision-making for patients with small HCC.

Meta-Analysis of Repeat Hepatectomy versus Radiofrequency Ablation for Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary hepatic malignancy and a leading cause of cancer-related death in both the developed and developing world. Recurrent HCC (rHCC) develops in a significant proportion of patients even following curative-intent resection. In the absence of a structured treatment algorithm, a number of treatment options including repeat hepatectomy (RH) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) have been utilized in select patients with rHCC. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to compare short- and long-term outcomes of patients undergoing RHR versus RFA for rHCC. Four electronic databases were screened until September 2022. A total of 17 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Overall and disease-free survival were comparable among the two groups. Patients undergoing RH were less likely to develop a second recurrence (RR 0.89, 95% C.I. 0.81 to 0.98, p = 0.02). Overall and major morbidity were significantly increased in the RH group (RR 3.01, 95% C.I. 1.98 to 4.56, p < 0.001 and RR 3.65, 95% C.I. 2.07 to 6.43, p < 0.001, respectively), while mortality was similar between RFA and RH. The data demonstrated that RFA is a safe and efficient alternative to RH for selected patients with rHCC. Nevertheless, despite higher morbidity associated with RH, repeat resection remains the preferred treatment option whenever feasible, as it allows for better local disease control.

2022 KLCA-NCC Korea practice guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide and the fourth most common cancer among men in South Korea, where the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection is high in middle and old age. The current practice guidelines will provide useful and sensible advice for the clinical management of patients with HCC. A total of 49 experts in the fields of hepatology, oncology, surgery, radiology, and radiation oncology from the Korean Liver Cancer Association-National Cancer Center Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee revised the 2018 Korean guidelines and developed new recommendations that integrate the most up-to-date research findings and expert opinions. These guidelines provide useful information and direction for all clinicians, trainees, and researchers in the diagnosis and treatment of HCC.

Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Patterns, Detection, Staging and Treatment

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide with the incidence of recurrence being as high as 88% even among patients who have undergone curative-intent treatment. Despite improvements in overall survival, recurrence remains a challenge necessitating accurate reappraisal of patient and disease status. To that end, accurate staging of recurrent HCC is a necessity to provide better care for these patients. Risk factors for poor survival after HCC recurrence have been identified and include characteristics of the primary disease, such as tumor multifocality, large size (≥5 cm), macroscopic vascular or microscopic lymphovascular invasion, preoperative a-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, R0 resection, and the presence of impaired liver function. Close surveillance with imaging is warranted following curative-intent therapy, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) being the preferred approach to identify small, early recurrent HCCs. Treatment decisions at the time of recurrence involve ruling out extrahepatic disease and identifying candidates for potentially curative-intent repeat treatment options. Patients with recurrent disease are, however, very diverse in terms of tumor morphology and biologic behavior, as well as residual hepatic functional reserve. Patients with preserved liver function may benefit from repeat liver resection or ablation. Patients with recurrence within the Milan criteria may even be candidates for salvage liver transplantation, while multimodality treatment with combination of liver-directed therapies appears to enhance oncologic outcomes for individuals with advanced recurrent disease. A “one-size-fits-all” approach in staging recurrent HCC does not exist. Rather, individualized and evidence-based decision-making is necessary in order to optimize outcomes for patients with recurrent HCC.

Comparison of the long-term outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria treated by ablation, resection, or transplantation

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT), resection (LR), and ablation (LA) are three curative-intent treatment options for patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to develop a prognostic calculator to compare the long-term outcomes following each of these therapies.

METHODS

A total of 976 patients with HCC within the Milan criteria who underwent LT, LR, and LA between 2009 and 2019 from four institutions were evaluated. Multistate competing risks prediction models for recurrence-free survival (RFS), recurrence within the Milan criteria (RWM), and HCC-specific survival (HSS) were derived to develop a prognostic calculator.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 51 months, 420 (43%) patients developed recurrence. In the multivariate analysis, larger tumor size, multinodularity, older age, male, higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), higher albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, and the presence of portal hypertension were significantly associated with higher recurrence and decreased survival rates. The RFS and HSS were both significantly higher among patients treated by LT than by LR or LA and significantly higher between patients treated by LR than by LA (all p < 0.001). For multinodular HCC ≤3 cm, although LT had better RFS and HSS than LR or LA, LA was noninferior to LR. An online prognostic calculator was then developed based on the preoperative clinical factors that were independently associated with outcomes to evaluate RFS, RWM, and HSS at different time intervals for all three treatment options.

CONCLUSIONS

Although LT resulted in the best recurrence and survival outcomes, LR and LA also offered durable long-term alternatives. This prognostic calculator is a useful tool for clinicians to guide an informed and personalized discussion with patients based on their tumor biology and liver function.

Non-transplantable recurrence after percutaneous thermal ablation of ≤3-cm HCC: Predictors and implications for treatment allocation

Percutaneous thermal ablation (PTA), resection, and liver transplantation are the standard curative options for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Liver transplantation yields the best long‐term outcomes but is limited by graft shortage. Thus, patients with ≤3‐cm HCC are primarily treated by PTA even though recurrence is frequent and may occur outside transplant criteria. Data on non‐transplantable recurrence (NTR) following PTA are lacking, however. We therefore investigated the incidence and predictors of NTR among 213 potentially transplantable patients (cirrhosis, 93%; Child‐Pugh A, 98.6%; alcohol‐related disease, 62%) with ≤3‐cm HCC(s) treated by PTA, to stratify them according to their NTR risk and to improve treatment allocation. During follow‐up (median: 41.2 months), NTR occurred in 18.3% (alpha‐fetoprotein [AFP] model) and 23% (Milan) patients. NTR prediction with competing‐risk analysis and internal validation revealed AFP > 100 ng/ml (subdistribution hazard ratio: 7.28; p < 0.001) and prior HCC (subdistribution hazard ratio: 3.77; p = 0.002) as independent predictors (Harrell's C: 0.76). Based on this model using the AFP score (equally predictive within Milan criteria), patients were stratified into three NTR risk categories: HCC‐naïve with AFP < 100 ng/ml (low risk, n = 108 of 213), non‐HCC naïve with AFP < 100 ng/ml (intermediate risk, n = 92 of 213), AFP ≥ 100 ng/ml (high risk, n = 13 of 213), among whom 9.3% (3.7% [Milan]), 22.8% (25% [Milan]), and 61.5% (38/5% [Milan]) presented NTR (p < 0.001). Median recurrence‐free survival was 4.6, 14.5, and 43.4 months, respectively, in high‐risk, intermediate‐risk, and low‐risk categories (p < 0.001). Median overall survival, which was 19.1 months in high‐risk patients, was not reached otherwise (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Overall, PTA of ≤3‐cm HCC incurs a low NTR risk. Simple and noninvasive predictors (HCC naivety, AFP) accurately stratified patients' risk of NTR, and should help to improve treatment allocation. Patients with AFP ≥ 100 ng/ml have a high risk of NTR, poor recurrence‐free survival, and overall survival. Further studies evaluating preemptive transplantation or adjuvant/neoadjuvant strategies are highly needed in this small patient subset.

Risk factors and long-term prognosis of beyond-Milan recurrence after hepatectomy for BCLC stage 0/A hepatocellular carcinoma: A large-scale multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Data on recurrence are important to inform surveillance and improve long-term surgical outcomes for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. We sought to identify risk factors and long-term prognosis among patients who experienced beyond-Milan recurrence after hepatectomy for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

Patients who underwent hepatectomy for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A hepatocellular carcinoma were identified from a multi-institutional database. Predictors of beyond-Milan recurrence and risk factors associated with post-recurrence survival among patients with beyond-Milan recurrence were assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Among 753 patients (median follow-up, 51.8 months), 138 (18.3%) developed beyond-Milan recurrence. Regular surveillance (interval follow-up ≤3 months within 1 year and ≤6 months in subsequent years after surgery) was not carried out for 53 (38.4%) patients who developed beyond-Milan recurrence. On multivariate analysis, increased risk of beyond-Milan recurrence was independently associated with preoperative alpha-fetoprotein level >400 ng/mL, tumor size >5.0 cm, multifocal disease, microvascular invasion, and no/irregular recurrence surveillance. Median post-recurrence survival among patients with beyond-Milan recurrence was only 8.4 months (95% confidence interval: 7.0-9.8 months). Among patients who developed beyond-Milan recurrence, Child-Pugh grade B/C, early recurrence within 1 year after surgery, macrovascular invasion/distant metastasis, and noncurative treatment of recurrence were independent risk factors associated with worse post-recurrence survival.

CONCLUSION

Nearly 1 in 5 patients developed beyond-Milan recurrence after hepatectomy for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. Patients with beyond-Milan recurrence had a median survival of less than 1 year after diagnosis of the recurrence. Regular surveillance is an important and actionable measure to decrease beyond-Milan recurrence and, in turn, improve long-term survival among patients treated with hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Patterns, treatments, and prognosis of tumor recurrence after resection for hepatocellular carcinoma with microvascular invasion: a multicenter study from China

BACKGROUND

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a risk factor of post-hepatectomy tumor recurrence for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The patterns, treatments, and prognosis have not been documented in HCC patients with MVI.

METHODS

A multicenter database of patients with HCC and MVI following resection was analyzed. The clinicopathological and initial operative data, timing and first sites of recurrence, recurrence management, and long-term survival outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of 1517 patients included, the median follow-up was 39.7 months. Tumor recurrence occurred in 928 patients, with 49% within 6 months of hepatectomy and 60% only in the liver. The incidence of intrahepatic only recurrence gradually increased with time after 6 months. Patients who developed recurrence within 6 months of hepatectomy had worse survival outcomes than those who developed recurrence later. Patients who developed intrahepatic only recurrence had better prognosis than those with either extrahepatic only recurrence or those with intra- and extrahepatic recurrence. Repeat resection of recurrence with curative intent resulted in better outcomes than other treatment modalities.

CONCLUSION

Post-hepatectomy tumor recurrence in patients with HCC and MVI had unique characteristics and recurrence patterns. Early detection of tumor recurrence and repeat liver resection with curative intent resulted in improved long-term survival outcomes.

EGFR inhibition reverses resistance to lenvatinib in hepatocellular carcinoma cells

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Lenvatinib is approved as a first-line treatment for unresectable HCC. The therapeutic duration of lenvatinib is limited by resistance, but the underlying mechanism is unclear. To establish lenvatinib-resistant cells, Hep3B cells were initially treated with 3 µM lenvatinib. The concentration was gradually increased by 1 µM or 0.5 µM per week and it reached to 7.5 µM 2 months after the initial exposure to lenvatinib. The biological characteristics of these cells were analyzed by ERK activation in the MAPK signaling pathway and a human phospho‐receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) antibody array. Factors possibly related to lenvatinib resistance were analyzed using inhibitors, and cell proliferation was analyzed. We established lenvatinib-resistant HCC cells (LR cells) by long-term exposure to lenvatinib. Lenvatinib reduced ERK activation in the parent cells, but not in the LR cells. RTK array analysis showed that the activities of EGFR and insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF1R)/insulin receptor (INSR) were significantly increased in LR cells, whereas the activities of other RTKs were unchanged. Erlotinib, a widely used EGFR inhibitor, downregulated ERK activation in LR cells. The proliferation of LR cells will also be affected when lenvatinib is combined with erlotinib to treat LR cells. In contrast, inhibition of IGFR/INSR did not affect ERK activation or cell proliferation. Scavenging of reactive oxygen species (ROS) ameliorated the enhanced EGFR activation in LR cells. Lenvatinib resistance was induced by enhanced EGFR activation, possibly via ROS accumulation, in lenvatinib- resistant cells. These findings may enable the development of lenvatinib combination therapies for HCC.

Impact of diabetes mellitus on the long-term prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

The impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still unclear. The present study aims to draw a firm conclusion in terms of evaluating the impact of DM on the prognosis of HCC after hepatectomy.

METHODS

The pattern of recurrence for HCC was often stratified into early-stage (<2 years) and late-stage (≥2 years) recurrence. Because the early-stage recurrence was mainly attributed to aggressive tumor pathological characteristics, patients who recurrence or die within 2 years were excluded. Cumulative overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were determined by the method of Kaplan-Meier, and the independent risk factors of OS/RFS were determined by Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 426 patients were eventually included. The 3- and 5-year OS in patients with and without DM was 83.7%, 55.1%; and 90.9%, 77.4%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that DM was an independent risk factor for OS (HR 1.166, 95% CI 1.056-2.036, P = 0.022) and RFS (HR 1.365, 95% CI 1.043-1.787, P = 0.023).

CONCLUSION

DM is an independent risk factor for long-term prognosis in patients with HCC. Patients with DM after hepatectomy for HCC, thus, need to actively control DM and closer follow-up.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Hepatic Arterial Infusion Chemotherapy of Infusional Fluorouracil, Leucovorin, and Oxaliplatin Versus Transarterial Chemoembolization in Patients With Large Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate a cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy with infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX-HAIC) as the first-line treatment for patients with large unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) compared with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: A Markov model was constructed to simulate the first-line treatment, disease recurrence, and survival of patients with large unresectable HCC. Transition probabilities were based on clinical trial data. The costs and health utilities were derived from the public literature. The outputs were total cost, quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to examine model uncertainty. We also performed subgroup analyses. Results: The results of the base case analysis found that FOLFOX-HAIC increased overall costs by $9,381 and improved effectiveness by 1.01 QALYs compared with TACE. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed that the hazard ratio of progression-free survival and overall survival for FOLFOX-HAIC relative to TACE had the greatest impact on the ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that the probability of FOLFOX-HAIC treatment being cost-effective was 99.54% at the willingness-to-pay threshold of $30,552/QALY. Patients in most subgroups favored FOLFOX-HAIC treatment because it had a more than 50% probability of being cost-effective than TACE, except for patients with negative hepatitis B infection. Conclusion: In conclusion, our study found that the FOLFOX-HAIC was a cost-effective option compared to TACE for patients with large unresectable HCC in China.

Immune-related lincRNA pairs predict prognosis and therapeutic response in hepatocellular carcinoma

Growing evidence has demonstrated the functional relevance of long intergenic noncoding RNAs (lincRNAs) to tumorigenesis and immune response. However, immune-related lincRNAs and their value in predicting the clinical outcomes of patients with liver cancer remain largely unexplored. Herein, we utilized the strategy of iterative gene pairing to construct a tumor-specific immune-related lincRNA pairs signature (IRLPS), which did not require specific expression levels, as an indicator of patient outcomes. The 18-IRLPS we developed was associated with overall survival, tumor progression, and recurrence in liver cancer patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that the risk model was an independent predictive factor. A high IRLPS risk was correlated suppressive immune microenvironment, and IRLPS-high patients might benefit more from CD276 blockade or TMIGD2 agonist. Patients in the high-risk group were associated with elevated tumor mutation, increased sensitivity to dopamine receptor antagonists, cisplatin, doxorubicin, and mitomycin but more resistance to vinblastine. Mechanistically, IRLPS high scores might lead to poor prognosis by promoting cell proliferation and metabolic reprogramming. The prognostic significance of the 18-IRLPS was confirmed in independent cancer datasets. These findings highlighted the robust predictive performances of the 18-IRLPS for prognosis and personalized treatment.

Clinical Features of Recurrence After Hepatic Resection for Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Long-Term Survival Outcomes of Patients with Recurrence: A Multi-institutional Analysis

BACKGROUND

A potentially curative hepatic resection is the optimal treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but most HCCs, even at an early stage, eventually recur after resection. This study investigates clinical features of initial recurrence and long-term prognosis of patients with recurrence after curative resection for early-stage HCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From a multicenter database, patients who underwent curative hepatic resection for early-stage HCC [Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0/A] were extracted. Time to initial recurrence, patterns of initial recurrence, and treatment modalities for recurrent tumors were investigated. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to identify independent risks associated with postoperative recurrence, as well as post-recurrence survival (PRS) for patients with recurrence.

RESULTS

Among 1424 patients, 679 (47.7%) developed recurrence at a median follow-up of 54.8 months, including 408 (60.1%) early recurrence (≤ 2 years after surgery) and 271 (39.9%) late recurrence (> 2 years). Independent risks of postoperative recurrence included cirrhosis, preoperative alpha-fetoprotein level > 400 ug/L, tumor size > 5 cm, multiple tumors, satellites, microvascular invasion, and intraoperative blood transfusion. Multivariate analysis revealed that receiving irregular recurrence surveillance, initial tumor beyond Milan criteria, early recurrence, BCLC stage B/C of the recurrent tumor, and noncurative treatments were independently associated with poorer PRS.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly half of patients with early-stage HCC experienced recurrence after resection. Understanding recurrence risks may help identify patients at high risk of recurrence who may benefit from future adjuvant therapies. Meaningful survival even after recurrence can still be achieved by postoperative regular surveillance and curative treatment.

Preoperative predictors of early recurrence after resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

To assess preoperative image tumor characteristics and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels to predict early recurrence after liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

This retrospective study's enrolled patients underwent LR for newly diagnosed HCC between 2011 and 2018. Multivariate logistic regression analyses using the Akaike information criterion were adopted to construct a nomogram to predict early recurrence (i.e. recurrence within 1 year). The performance of this nomogram was evaluated using calibration plots with bootstrapping.

RESULTS

Early recurrence was identified in 99 patients (11.2%). Four predictive factors, namely an AFP level of >400 ng/mL; image-diagnosed tumor characteristics, including a tumor size of > 5 cm; vascular invasion; and multiple tumors were adopted in the final model of the early recurrence nomogram, with a concordance index of 0.67. The calibration plots showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and the actual observations of early recurrence.

CONCLUSION

We have developed a simple nomogram with preoperative image tumor characteristics and AFP levels to predict the early recurrence of HCC after LR.

Risk Factors for Beyond Milan Recurrence After Hepatic Resection for Single Hepatocellular Carcinoma No Larger Than 5 Centimeters

Hepatic resection (HR) is considered a treatment of choice for a single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ≤5 cm in patients with preserved liver function. However, it is possible for these patients to develop a severe form of recurrence (beyond Milan recurrence [BMR] criteria). This recurrence could have been avoided if liver transplantation (LT) was performed primarily, as LT is believed to yield a more favorable oncological outcome compared with HR. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for BMR after HR and to verify whether primary LT can provide a more favorable outcome in patients with BMR risk factors. Data from 493 patients who underwent HR for HCC ≤5 cm between 1995 and 2016 were analyzed. Among them, 74 patients (15%) experienced BMR. The 10-year survival rate of patients with BMR was significantly low compared with that of patients without BMR (22.6% versus 79.8%; P < 0.01). In multivariate analysis, calculated hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥7 mm Hg and microvascular invasion were identified as the risk factors for BMR (P < 0.05). During the same period, 63 eligible patients underwent LT as a primary treatment for HCC ≤5 cm. No significant difference in long-term survival rate was observed when no risk factor for BMR was present in the HR and LT groups (85.5% versus 100%; P = 0.39). However, 10-year survival was poorer in the HR group in the presence of risk factors for BMR (60.6% versus 91.8%; P < 0.001). Among the patients with HCCs ≤5 cm, which are resectable and transplantable, LT is indicated when calculated hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥7 mm Hg and/or microvascular invasion is present.

Using the aMAP Risk Score to Predict Late Recurrence Following Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chinese Population: A Multicenter Study

Objective

This study was conducted to explore the application of age-male-ALBI-platelets (aMAP) score for predicting late recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and develop an aMAP score based-nomogram to predict prognosis in Chinese population.

Materials and Methods

HCC patients who developed late recurrence following RFA at National Cancer Center (NCC) of China, First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University and Beijing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2011 to December 2016 were included as a training cohort, and patients who were treated at Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University between January 2012 and December 2016 were included as an external validation cohort. The optimal cut-off value for aMAP score was determined using X-tile software to discriminate the performance of recurrence-free survival (RFS).

Results

A total of 339 eligible patients were included in this study. Patients were grouped into low-risk (aMAP score ≤64.2), medium-risk (64.3 ≤aMAP score ≤68.6) and high-risk (aMAP score ≥68.7) groups by X-tile plots. The prognostic factors that affected RFS were the number of lesions and aMAP score. A nomogram was constructed to predict the RFS with a C-index of 0.793 (95% CI: 0.744-0.842). The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (t-AUCs) of the nomogram to predict 3, 4 and 5-year RFS were 0.808, 0.820 and 0.764, respectively. The model was then tested with data from an external validation cohort. The calibration curve confirmed the optimal agreement between the predicted and observed values.

Conclusion

The aMAP score provided a well-discriminated risk stratification and is an independent prognostic factor for the late recurrence of HCC following RFA. The aMAP score-based nomogram could help to strengthen prognosis-based decision making and formulate adjuvant therapeutic and preventive strategies.

Lessons From Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The implementation of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) into the clinical management of different malignancies has largely changed our understanding of cancer treatment. After having proven efficacy in different tumor entities such as malignant melanoma and lung cancer, ICI were intensively tested in the setting of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here they could achieve higher and more durable response rates compared to tyrosine-kinase inhibitors (TKI), that were sole standard of care for the last decade. Most recently, ICI treatment was approved in a first line setting of HCC, for cases not suitable for curative strategies. However, only a subset of patients benefits from ICI therapy, while others experience rapid tumor progression, worsening of liver function and poor prognosis. Efforts are being made to find immune characteristics that predict tumor responsiveness to ICI, but no reliable biomarker could be identified so far. Nevertheless, data convincingly demonstrate that combination therapies (such as dual inhibition of PD-L1 and VEGF) are more effective than the application of single agents. In this review, we will briefly recapitulate the current algorithms for systemic treatment, discuss available results from checkpoint inhibitor trials and give an outlook on future directions of immunotherapy in HCC.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Hepatic Arterial Infusion of FOLFOX Combined Sorafenib for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Portal Vein Invasion

Background

Hepatic arterial infusion (HAI) of oxaliplatin, leucovorin, and fluorouracil (FOLFOX) plus sorafenib has a more desirable effect versus sorafenib for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with portal vein invasion. However, considering the high cost of hepatic arterial infusion of chemotherapy (HAIC), this study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HAIC plus sorafenib (SoraHAIC) versus standard care for HCC patients from the Chinese health system perspective.

Methods

A Markov multi-state model was constructed to simulate the disease course and source consumption of SoraHAIC. Costs of primary therapeutic drugs were calculated based on the national bid price, and hepatic artery catheterization fee was collected from the Fujian Provincial Price Bureau. Clinical data, other costs, and utility values were extracted from references. Primary outcomes included life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The robustness of model was verified by uncertainty sensitivity analyses.

Results

SoraHAIC gained 1.18 QALYs (1.68 LYs) at a cost of $65,254, while the effectiveness and cost of sorafenib were 0.52 QALYs (0.79 LYs) and $14,280, respectively. The ICER of SoraHAIC vs sorafenib was $77,132/QALY ($57,153/LY). Parameter that most influenced the ICER was utility of PFS state. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) showed that SoraHAIC was not cost-effective in the WTP threshold of 3*Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of China ($30,492/QALY). But about 38.8% of the simulations were favorable to SoraHAIC at the WTP threshold of 3*GDP per capita of Beijing ($72,000/QALY). When 3*GDP per capita of Fujian ($47,285/QALY) and Gansu Province ($14,595/QALY) were used as WTP threshold, the acceptability of SoraHAIC was 0.3% and 0%, respectively.

Conclusions

The study results indicated that SoraHAIC was not cost-effective in medium-, and low-income regions of China. In developed areas of China (Beijing), there was a 38.8% probability that the SoraHAIC regimen would be cost-effective.

Predictors and patterns of recurrence after radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma within up-to-seven criteria: A multicenter retrospective study

PURPOSE

To determine the risk factors and patterns of recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) meeting the up-to-seven criteria and to develop a nomogram to predict the recurrence free survival (RFS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 481 HCC patients meeting the up-to-seven criteria and who received RFA as the primary therapy at three Chinese hospitals from January 2013 to December 2016. All clinical variables were assessed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses and a nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of RFS.

RESULTS

The recurrence rate was 50.7 % (244/481). Age > 60 years, male gender, and multiple tumors were independent risk factors of recurrence. The incidence of early and late recurrence was 68.03 % (n = 166) and 31.97 % (n = 78), respectively. Seven patterns of spatial recurrence were identified: local tumor progression (LTP) alone (n = 18, 7.38 %), intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR) alone (n = 136, 55.74 %), extrahepatic recurrence (ER) alone (n = 21, 8.61 %), IDR + ER (n = 45, 18.44 %), LTP + IDR (n = 16, 6.56 %), LTP + ER (n = 4, 1.64 %) and LTP + IDR + ER (n = 4, 1.64 %). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year RFS rates were 79.63 %, 65.23 %, and 51.03 %, respectively. A well-discriminated and calibrated nomogram was constructed.

CONCLUSIONS

The factors affecting recurrence after RFA were age, gender, and the number of tumors. IDR was the most common type of recurrence after complete ablation.

Circulating Tumor Cells Undergoing the Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition: Influence on Prognosis in Cytokeratin 19-Positive Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to elucidate the relationship between cytokeratin 19 (CK19) expression and levels of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in preoperative peripheral blood of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and the potential influence of that relationship on prognosis.

Patients and Methods

CanPatrol™ CTC-enrichment technique and in situ hybridization (ISH) were used to enrich and classify CTCs undergoing the epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) from blood samples of 105 HCC patients. CK19 immunohistochemistry staining was performed on HCC tissues and compared with demographic and clinical data.

Results

In total, 27 of 105 (25.7%) HCC patients were CK19-positive. CK19-positive patients had significantly lower median tumor-free survival (TFS) than CK19-negative patients (5 vs 10 months, P = 0.047). In total, 98 (93.3%) patients showed pre-surgery peripheral blood CTCs (range: 0–76, median: 6), and 57 of 105 (54.3%) patients displayed CTC counts ≥6. Furthermore, CK19-positive patients with CTC count ≥6 showed significantly higher percentage than CK19-negative ones (77.8% vs 46.2%, P = 0.004). CK19-positive patients showed a significantly higher proportion of mesenchymal CTCs among CTCs undergoing EMT than CK19-negative patients (mean rank: 62.28 vs 49.79, P = 0.046). We also found that CK19-positive patients with high CTC count showed significantly shorter median tumor-free survival than CK19-negative patients with low CTC count (5 vs 16 months, P = 0.039).

Conclusion

High CTC count and high percentage of mesenchymal CTCs are closely related to the expression of CK19, which is associated with poor prognosis in HCC patients.

A Pre-Operative Prognostic Score for Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Who Underwent Resection

BACKGROUND

Previous studies demonstrated a promising prognosis in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent surgery, yet a consensus of which population would benefit most from surgery is still unreached.

METHOD

A total of 496 advanced HCC patients who initially underwent liver resection were consecutively collected. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to select significant pre-operative factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). A prognostic score constructed from these factors was used to divide patients into different risk groups. Survivals were compared between groups with log-rank test. The area under curves (AUC) of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of prognostic score.

RESULT

For the entire cohort, the median overall survival (OS) was 23.0 months and the median RFS was 12.1 months. Patients were divided into two risk groups according to the prognostic score constructed with ALBI score, tumor size, tumor-invaded liver segments, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, alpha fetoprotein, and portal vein tumor thrombus stage. The median RFS of the low-risk group was significantly longer than that of the high-risk group in both the training (10.1 vs 2.9 months, P<0.001) and the validation groups (13.7 vs 4.6 months, P=0.002). The AUCs of the prognostic score in predicting survival were 0.70 to 0.71 in the training group and 0.71 to 0.72 in the validation group.

CONCLUSION

Surgery could provide promising survival for HCC patients at an advanced stage. Our developed pre-operative prognostic score is effective in identifying advanced-stage HCC patients with better survival benefit for surgery.