Predicting Individual Survival After Potentially Curative Esophagectomy for Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagus or Gastroesophageal Junction

Development and validation of a nomogram for Siewert II esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma: a retrospective analysis

Background

Due to the complex histological type and anatomical structures, there has been considerable debate on the classification of adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG), especially Siewert II AEG. Furthermore, neither the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) [esophageal adenocarcinoma (E) or gastric cancer (G)] nor the AJCC 8th TNM (E or G) accurately predicted the prognosis of patients with Siewert II AEG.

Objective

This study aimed to investigate the factors influencing the survival and prognosis of patients with Siewert II AEG and establish a new and better prognostic predictive model.

Design

A retrospective study.

Methods

Patients with Siewert II AEG, retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) databases, were assigned to the training set. Patients retrieved from a single tertiary medical center were assigned to the external validation set. Significant variables were selected using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to construct the nomogram. Nomogram models were assessed using the concordance index (C-index), a calibration plot, decision curve analysis (DCA), and external validation.

Results

Age, tumor grade, and size, as well as the T, N, and M stages, were included in the nomograms. For the SEER training set, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.683 (0.665-0.701). The C-index of the nomogram for the external validation set was 0.690 (0.653-0.727). The calibration curve showed good agreement between the nomogram estimations and actual observations in both the training and external validation sets. The DCA showed that the nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusion

The new predictive model showed significant accuracy in predicting the prognosis of Siewert II AEG.

Postoperative infectious complications are associated with diminished overall survival of patients undergoing resection for colorectal liver metastases

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative infectious complications (PIC) remain one of the most common complications after surgery. The influence of PIC on long-term survival for patients after liver surgery for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) needs further investigation.

METHODS

Data of patients who underwent liver resection for CRLM between 2012 and 2017 at the Department of Surgery, Campus Charité Mitte and Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin were evaluated. Overall survival (OS) was stratified according to the development of PIC. Independent predictors of PIC and diminished survival were identified using regression models.

RESULTS

Of 270 patients, eighty-four (31%) patients developed PIC including intraabdominal infections (n = 51, 61%), cholangitis (n = 5, 6%), pneumonia (n = 12, 14%), wound infections (n = 28, 33%), urinary tract infections (n = 5, 6%), or central line-associated bloodstream infections (n = 4, 5%). PIC were associated with a significantly diminished five-year OS (30% vs. 43%, p = 0.008). Age >65 years (p = 0.016, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2-4.0), comorbidity (p = 0.019, HR [95% CI] = 2.4 [1.2-4.9]), simultaneous resection of primary tumor (p = 0.005, HR [95% CI] = 4.3 [1.6-11.9]), biliary drainage (p < 0.001, HR [95% CI] = 4.1 [2.0-8.5]), and length of procedure ≥272 min (p = 0.012, HR [95% CI] = 2.2 [1.2-4.1]) were independent predictors for the development of PIC. Body-mass index (BMI) > 30 kg/m2 (p = 0.002, HR [95% CI] = 2.4 [1.4-4.0]), postoperative major complications (p = 0.003, HR [95% CI] = 2.2 [1.3-3.8]), and 3- or 4-MRGN bacteria (p = 0.001, HR [95% CI] = 7.7 [2.2-27.3]) were independently associated with diminished OS.

CONCLUSIONS

PIC are associated with diminished OS after resection for CRLM. Age >65 years, comorbidities, simultaneous resection of the primary tumor, and biliary drainages were identified as independent risk factors for the development of PIC. High BMI, postoperative major morbidity and 3-/4-MRGN bacteria were independently predictive of worse OS. These factors need to be considered in perioperative management for patients with CRLM.

Short- (30-90 days) and mid-term (1-3 years) outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with esophageal cancer undergoing surgical treatments

BACKGROUND

The factors influencing the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer vary among studies and are still poorly known.

AIM

To determine the factors associated with survival in patients with esophageal cancer.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients with esophageal cancer admitted between January 2017 and March 2020 at Heping Hospital Affiliated to Changzhi Medical College. All patients were treated according to the available guidelines. Follow-up was censored in October 2020. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to determine the independent risk factors for overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

In total, 307 patients were included. Their median age was 64 (range, 44-79) years, 63.5% were male, and the median disease course was 2 (0.1-36) months. The median tumor size was 3 (0-10) cm. Most patients were T3 (29.6%), N0 (70.0%). Most tumors were grade 2 (48.2%), and 87.3% were squamous cell carcinoma. The in-hospital mortality was 16.9%, the 30-day mortality was 19.9%, and the 90-day mortality was 25.4%. The cumulative OS rates at the last follow-up were 82.1% (95%CI: 67.7%-96.5%) for stage 0/I/II and 47.4% (95%CI: 16.5-78.6%) for stage III/IVA (P < 0.001). The multivariable analysis showed that creatinine levels (HR = 1.02, 95%CI: 1.00-1.03, P = 0.050), pTNM III/IVA (HR = 4.19, 95%CI: 2.19-8.01, P < 0.001), adjuvant radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy (HR = 0.23, 95%CI: 0.11-0.49), and the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) (HR = 1.02, 95%CI: 1.004-1.03, P = 0.011) were independently associated with OS.

CONCLUSION

The survival of patients with esophageal cancer is poor, especially those with pTNM III/IVA. pTNM stage III/IVA, CCI, and adjuvant therapy (radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy) are independently associated with OS.

A Nomogram for Predicting Lymphovascular Invasion in Superficial Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

The lymphovascular invasion (LVI) status facilitates the determination of the optimal therapeutic strategy for superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC), but in clinical practice, LVI must be confirmed by postoperative pathology. However, studies of the risk factors for LVI in SESCC are limited. Consequently, this study aimed to identify the risk factors for LVI and use these factors to establish a prediction model. The data of 516 patients who underwent radical esophagectomy between January 2007 and September 2019 were retrospectively collected (training set, n=361, January 2007 to May 2015; validation set, n=155, June 2015 to September 2019). In the training set, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate analyses were utilized to identify predictive factors for LVI in patients with SESCC. A nomogram was then developed using these predictors. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve were used to evaluate the efficiency, accuracy, and clinical utility of the model. LASSO regression indicated that the tumor size, depth of invasion, tumor differentiation, lymph node metastasis (LNM), sex, circumferential extension, the presence of multiple lesions, and the resection margin were correlated with LVI. However, multivariate analysis revealed that only the tumor size, depth of invasion, tumor differentiation, and LNM were independent risk factors for LVI. Incorporating these four variables, model 1 achieved an AUC of 0.817 in predicting LVI. Adding circumferential extension to model 1 did not appreciably change the AUC and integrated discrimination improvement, but led to a significant increase in the net reclassification improvement (p=0.011). A final nomogram was constructed by incorporating tumor size, depth of invasion, tumor differentiation, LNM, and circumferential extension and showed good discrimination (training set, AUC=0.833; validation set, AUC=0.819) and good calibration in the training and validation sets. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful in both sets. Thus, it is possible to predict the status of LVI using this nomogram scoring system, which can aid the selection of an appropriate treatment plan.

Development and validation of a novel competing risk model for predicting survival of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma: a SEER population-based study and external validation

Background

Adenocarcinoma in Esophagogastric Junction (AEG) is a severe gastrointestinal malignancy with a unique clinicopathological feature. Hence, we aimed to develop a competing risk nomogram for predicting survival for AEG patients and compared it with new 8th traditional tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system.

Methods

Based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of AEG patients between 2004 and 2010, we used univariate and multivariate analysis to filter clinical factors and then built a competing risk nomogram to predict AEG cause-specific survival. We then measured the clinical accuracy by comparing them to the 8th TNM stage with a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Brier score, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). External validation was performed in 273 patients from China National Cancer Center.

Results

A total of 1755 patients were included in this study. The nomogram was based on five variables: Number of examined lymph nodes, grade, invasion, metastatic LNs, and age. The results of the nomogram was greater than traditional TNM staging with ROC curve (1-year AUC: 0.747 vs. 0.641, 3-year AUC: 0.761 vs. 0.679, 5-year AUC: 0.759 vs. 0.682, 7-year AUC: 0.749 vs. 0.673, P < 0.001), Brier score (3-year: 0.198 vs. 0.217, P = 0.012; 5-year: 0.198 vs. 0.216, P = 0.008; 7-year: 0.199 vs. 0.215, P = 0.014) and DCA. In external validation, the nomogram also showed better diagnostic value than traditional TNM staging and great prediction accuracy.

Conclusion

We developed and validated a novel nomogram and risk stratification system integrating clinicopathological characteristics for AEG patients. The model showed superior prediction ability for AEG patients than traditional TNM classification.

Supraclavicular lymph node metastasis in elderly patients undergoing esophageal squamous cell carcinoma radical surgery: construction of risk and prognostic predictive nomograms

Background

Supraclavicular lymph node metastasis (SCLN) is an adverse prognostic determinant of esophageal cancer. However, lymphadenectomy for SCLN is a traumatic procedure, especially in elderly patients, which is associated with more postoperative complications. Currently, identification of risk factors of SCLN metastasis and avoidance of unnecessary lymphadenectomy for SCLN in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients has become an unmet clinical need.

Methods

A total of 90 elderly patients with ESCC between January 2008 and December 2013 was eligible for this analysis. Logistic regression was performed to determine risk factors for SCLN metastasis after ESCC radical surgery in elderly patients. A nomogram was constructed to individually predict the risk for SCLN metastasis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve and cumulative risk curve were further analyzed to evaluate the effect of SCLN metastasis after ESCC radical surgery on survival prognosis and cumulative risk assessment in elderly patients. Finally, the SCLN metastasis group and the independent risk factor group were fitted by drawing a decision curve to evaluate the net benefit of the model.

Results

SCLN developed in 38 patients (42.2%). Postoperative lymph node metastasis (P<0.05), tumor thrombus (P<0.05) and tumor infiltration (P<0.05) were independent risk factors for SCLN metastasis. The influence of SCLN metastasis on postoperative survival in elderly ESCC patients was statistically significant (P=0.028, P <0.05); with the passage of time, the cumulative risk of SCLN metastasis increased, the survival probability decreased, and the survival time was shortened.

Conclusions

Postoperative lymph node metastasis, tumor thrombus and tumor infiltration are independent risk factors for recurrence and metastasis of SCLNs in elderly patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The nomogram model based on these factors provides a preliminary reference for individualized risk assessment, prognosis guidance and decision-making of SCLN metastasis in elderly patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Distribution of lymph node metastases in esophageal adenocarcinoma after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

The distribution of lymph node metastases in esophageal adenocarcinoma following neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRTx) is unclear, but may have consequences for radiotherapy and surgery. The aim of this study was to define the distribution of lymph node metastases and relation to the radiation field in patients following nCRTx and esophagectomy.

METHODS

Between April 2014 and August 2015 esophageal adenocarcinoma patients undergoing transthoracic esophagectomy with 2-field lymphadenectomy following nCRTx were included in this prospective observational study. Lymph node stations according to AJCC 7 were separately investigated. The location of lymph node metastases in relation to the radiation field was determined. The primary endpoint was the distribution of lymph node metastases and relation to the radiation field, the secondary endpoints were high-risk stations and risk factors for lymph node metastases and relation to survival.

RESULTS

Fifty consecutive patients were included. Lymph node metastases were found in 60% of patients and most frequently observed in paraesophageal (28%), left gastric artery (24%), and celiac trunk (18%) stations. Fifty-two percent had lymph node metastases within the radiation field. The incidence of lymph node metastases correlated significantly with ypT-stage (p = 0.002), cT-stage (p = 0.005), lymph angioinvasion (p = 0.004), and Mandard (p = 0.002). The number of lymph node metastases was associated with survival in univariable analysis (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.068-1.173, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Esophageal adenocarcinoma frequently metastasizes to both the mediastinal and abdominal lymph node stations. In this study, more than half of the patients had lymph node metastases within the radiation field. nCRTx is therefore not a reason to minimize lymphadenectomy in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma.

It's not always too late: a case for minimally invasive salvage esophagectomy

INTRODUCTION

Standard of care for locally advanced esophageal carcinoma is neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) and surgical resection 4-8 weeks after completion of nCRT. It is recommended that the CRT to surgery interval not exceed 90 days. Many patients do not undergo surgery within this timeframe due to patient/physician preference, complete clinical response, or poor performance status. Select patients are offered salvage esophagectomy (SE), defined in two ways: resection for recurrent/persistent disease after complete response to definitive CRT (dCRT) or esophagectomy performed > 90 days after completion of nCRT. Salvage esophagectomy reportedly has higher postoperative morbidity and poor survival outcomes. In this study, we assessed outcomes, overall, and disease-free survival of patients undergoing salvage esophagectomy by both definitions (recurrent/persistent disease after dCRT and/or > 90 days), compared to planned (resection after nCRT/within 90 days) esophagectomy (PE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective review of a prospectively maintained database identified patients who underwent minimally invasive esophagectomy at a single institution from 2009 to 2019. Esophagectomy for benign disease and patients who did not receive nCRT were excluded. Outcomes included postoperative complications, length of stay (LOS), disease-free survival, and overall survival.

RESULTS

97 patients underwent minimally invasive esophageal resection for esophageal carcinoma. 89.7% of patients were male. Mean age was 64.9 years (range 36-85 years). 94.8% of patients had adenocarcinoma, with 16 transthoracic and 81 transhiatal approaches. On comparing planned esophagectomy (n = 87) to esophagectomy after dCRT failure (n = 10), no significant differences were identified in overall survival (p = 0.73), disease-free survival (p = 0.32), 30-day or major complication rate, anastomotic leak, or LOS. Similarly, when comparing esophagectomy < 90 days after CRT (n = 62) to > 90 days after CRT completion (n = 35), no significant differences were identified in overall survival (p = 0.39), disease-free survival (p = 0.71), 30-day or major complication rate, LOS, or anastomotic leak rate between groups. In this comparison, local recurrence was noted to be elevated with SE as compared to PE (64.3% vs. 25.0%, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

Overall survival and disease-free survival were equivalent between SE and PE. Local recurrence was noted to be increased with SE, though this did not appear to affect survival. Although planned esophagectomy remains the standard of care, salvage esophagectomy has comparable outcomes and is appropriate for selected patients.

Lymphovascular Invasion as the Major Prognostic Factor in Node-Negative Esophageal Cancer After Primary Esophagectomy

BACKGROUND

Studies addressing both lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and perineural invasion (PNI) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) treated with or without neoadjuvant therapy are limited. We aimed to analyze the incidence and prognostic significance of LVI and PNI in patients with thoracic ESCC.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 520 patients with ESCC: 174 patients after neoadjuvant treatment followed by surgery and 346 after primary esophagectomy, from two medical centers. The relationships between LVI, PNI, and other histological factors were evaluated. The Cox regression model was used for survival analysis.

RESULTS

Positive LVI and PNI were noted in 35.6% and 22.4% of patients with residual primary tumor after neoadjuvant treatment and in 39.6% and 24.0% of patients who underwent primary esophagectomy, respectively. In patients with neoadjuvant treatments, the 5-year overall survival rates were 12.7% and 28.3% in patients with positive LVI and negative LVI, respectively (p = 0.001). The 5-year overall survival rates were 6.4% and 29.9% in patients with positive PNI and negative PNI, respectively (p < 0.001). In patients who did not receive neoadjuvant treatment, the 5-year overall survival rates were 28.2% and 61.1% in patients with positive LVI and negative LVI, respectively (p < 0.001). The 5-year overall survival rates were 30.2% and 52.5% in patients with positive PNI and negative PNI (p < 0.001). In subgroup analysis, the presence of PNI was an independent prognostic factor in patients with neoadjuvant treatments, whereas the presence of LVI had more significant prognostic impact in patients with node-negative ESCC after primary esophagectomy.

CONCLUSIONS

Both LVI and PNI statuses are significant prognostic factors for patients with ESCC. However, the prognostic impact of LVI was majorly in the subgroup of node-negative patients who received primary esophagectomy.

Short- and long-term outcomes of laparoscopic versus open gastrectomy for locally advanced gastric cancer following neoadjuvant chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the short- and long-term outcomes of laparoscopic gastrectomy (LG) in patients with advanced gastric cancer following neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) to determine its safety and feasibility.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 51 patients who underwent gastrectomy for locally advanced gastric cancer [cT3-4/N1-3 or macroscopic type 3 (> 80 mm) or type 4] following NAC between November 2009 and January 2018. After excluding two patients who underwent palliative surgery due to peritoneal dissemination, 49 patients were ultimately selected for this cohort study. The patients were then divided into the LG group and open gastrectomy (OG) group, after which the clinicopathological characteristics as well as short- and long-term outcomes were examined.

RESULTS

Compared with the OG group, the LG group demonstrated a significantly lower amount of intraoperative blood loss and a shorter hospital stay. The overall complication rates were 10% (2 of 20 patients) and 24% (7 of 29 patients) in the LG and OG groups (P = 0.277), respectively. No significant differences in 5-year disease-free (LG 44.4% vs. OG 53.3%; P = 0.382) or overall survival rates (LG 46.9% vs. OG 54.0%; P = 0.422) were observed between the groups. Multivariate analysis revealed that the surgical procedure (LG vs. OG) was not an independent risk factor for disease-free (P = 0.645) or overall survival (P = 0.489).

CONCLUSIONS

LG may be a potential therapeutic option for patients with gastric cancer following NAC considering its high success rates and acceptable short- and long-term outcomes.

Impact of postoperative complications on long-term survival following surgery for T4 colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Postoperative complications (POCs) after the resection of locally advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) may influence adjuvant treatment timing, outcomes, and survival. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of POCs on long-term outcomes in patients surgically treated for T4 CRC.

METHODS

All consecutive patients who underwent the resection of T4 CRC at a single centre from 2004 to 2013 were retrospectively analysed from a prospectively maintained database. POCs were assessed using the Clavien-Dindo classification. Patients who developed POCs were compared with those who did not in terms of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

The study population comprised 106 patients, including 79 (74.5%) with synchronous distant metastases. Overall, 46 patients (43%) developed at least one POC during the hospital stay, and of those patients, 9 (20%) had severe complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ grade III). POCs were not associated with OS (65% with POCs vs. 69% without POCs; p = 0.72) or RFS (58% with POCs vs. 70% without POCs; p = 0.37). Similarly, POCs did not affect OS or RFS in patients who had synchronous metastases at diagnosis compared with those who did not.

CONCLUSIONS

POCs do not affect the oncological course of patients subjected to the resection of T4 CRC, even in cases of synchronous metastases.

Survival prediction tools for esophageal and gastroesophageal junction cancer: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Clinical, pathological, and molecular information combined with cancer stage in prognostication algorithms can offer more personalized estimates of survival, which might guide treatment choices. Our aim was to evaluate the quality of prognostication tools in esophageal cancer.

METHODS

We systematically searched MedLine and Embase from 2005 to 2017 for studies reporting development or validation of models predicting long-term survival in esophageal cancer. We evaluated tools using the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies guidelines and the American Joint Committee on Cancer acceptance criteria for risk models.

RESULTS

We identified 16 prognostication tools for patients treated with curative intent and 1 for patients with metastatic disease. These tools frequently excluded adenocarcinoma, contained outdated data, and were developed with a limited sample size. Nine tools were developed in China for squamous cell cancer, and 11 used data on patients diagnosed before 2010. Most tools excluded key prognostic factors such as age and sex. Tumor stage and grade were the most commonly, but not universally, included factors. Twelve tools were designed to predict overall survival; 5 predicted cancer-specific survival. Bootstrap internal validation was performed for most tools; c-statistics ranged from 0.63 to 0.77 and graphically evaluated calibration was "good." Five tools were externally validated; c-statistics ranged from 0.70 to 0.77.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing tools cannot be confidently used for esophageal cancer prognostication in current clinical practice. Better-quality tools might help to more individually and accurately estimate disease course, select further treatments, and risk-stratify for future clinical trials.

Lymph node metastases near the celiac trunk should be considered separately from other nodal metastases in patients with cancer of the esophagus or gastroesophageal junction after neoadjuvant treatment and surgery

Background

The aim of the present study is to identify the incidence and prognostic significance of lymph node metastases near the celiac trunk in patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemo(radio)therapy followed by esophagectomy.

Methods

Between March 1994 and September 2013 a total of 462 consecutive patients with cancer of the esophagus or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) who underwent potentially curative esophageal resection after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (N=88; 19.0%) or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) (N=374; 81.0%) were included.

Results

Seventy one (15.4%) patients had truncal node metastases in the resection specimen. Metastases to these nodes occurred more frequently in male patients with adenocarcinoma and in tumors at the gastro-esophageal junction. A lower response to neoadjuvant treatment, higher ypT and ypN stages and a poorer grade of differentiation were significantly related with truncal node metastases. Patients with tumor positive truncal nodes had a worse median overall survival (17 vs. 55 months). In multivariate analysis, truncal node metastases were independently associated with a worse survival. Only 22 (31.0%) of the 71 patients with tumor positive truncal nodes were identified preoperatively with EUS or CT. In contrast, 37 patients had suspicious truncal nodes on EUS or CT, but metastases in the pathology specimen were absent.

Conclusions

In the present study, it is demonstrated that positive truncal nodes in the resection specimen after neoadjuvant therapy, are associated with advanced tumor stages and are an independent factor for inferior survival.

Prediction models for patients with esophageal or gastric cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Clinical prediction models are increasingly used to predict outcomes such as survival in cancer patients. The aim of this study was threefold. First, to perform a systematic review to identify available clinical prediction models for patients with esophageal and/or gastric cancer. Second, to evaluate sources of bias in the included studies. Third, to investigate the predictive performance of the prediction models using meta-analysis.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and The Cochrane Library were searched for publications from the year 2000 onwards. Studies describing models predicting survival, adverse events and/or health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for esophageal or gastric cancer patients were included. Potential sources of bias were assessed and a meta-analysis, pooled per prediction model, was performed on the discriminative abilities (c-indices).

Results

A total of 61 studies were included (45 development and 16 validation studies), describing 47 prediction models. Most models predicted survival after a curative resection. Nearly 75% of the studies exhibited bias in at least 3 areas and model calibration was rarely reported. The meta-analysis showed that the averaged c-index of the models is fair (0.75) and ranges from 0.65 to 0.85.

Conclusion

Most available prediction models only focus on survival after a curative resection, which is only relevant to a limited patient population. Few models predicted adverse events after resection, and none focused on patient’s HRQoL, despite its relevance. Generally, the quality of reporting is poor and external model validation is limited. We conclude that there is a need for prediction models that better meet patients’ information needs, and provide information on both the benefits and harms of the various treatment options in terms of survival, adverse events and HRQoL.

Does postoperative morbidity worsen the oncological outcome after radical surgery for gastrointestinal cancers? A systematic review of the literature

PURPOSE

The impact of postoperative complications on survival after radical surgery for esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers remains controversial. We conducted a systematic review of recent publications to examine the effect of postoperative complications on oncological outcome.

METHODS

A literature search of PubMed/MEDLINE was performed using the keywords "esophageal cancer," "gastric cancer," and "colorectal cancer," obtaining 27 reports published online up until the end of April 2016. Articles focusing on (i) postoperative morbidity and oncological outcome; and (ii) body mass index (BMI), postoperative morbidity, and oncological outcome, were selected. Univariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazards model) were performed.

RESULTS

Patients with postoperative complications had significantly poorer long-term survival than those without complications. Complications were associated with impaired oncological outcomes. The hazard ratios for overall survival were 1.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-2.12), 1.59 (95% CI, 1.13-2.24), and 1.55 (95% CI, 1.28-1.87) in esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers, respectively. High BMI was associated with postoperative morbidity rate but not with poor oncological outcome. Low BMI was significantly associated with inferior oncological outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Complications after radical surgery for esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers are associated with patient prognosis. Avoiding such complications might improve the outcomes.

Monitoring outcomes in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients following hepatic resection

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is one of the fatal gastrointestinal cancers with increasing incidence and mortality. Although surgery offers the only potential for cure in iCCA patients, the prognosis is not optimal with low overall survival rate and high disease recurrence. Hence, adjuvant therapy is generally recommended in the management of high-risk patients. Identifying factors associated with disease recurrence and survival of the iCCA patients after resection will improve understanding of disease prognosis and help in selecting patients who will benefit from surgical resection or stratifying them for clinical trials. Despite development of new methods for early detection of tumor recurrence, effective prognostic models and nomograms, and recent advances in management, significant challenges remain in improving the prognosis of iCCA patients.

The emerging field of radiomics in esophageal cancer: current evidence and future potential

'Radiomics' is the name given to the emerging field of extracting additional information from standard medical images using advanced feature analysis. This innovative form of quantitative image analysis appears to have future potential for clinical practice in patients with esophageal cancer by providing an additional layer of information to the standard imaging assessment. There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that radiomics may provide incremental value for staging, predicting treatment response, and predicting survival in esophageal cancer, for which the current work-up has substantial limitations. This review outlines the available evidence and future potential for the application of radiomics in the management of patients with esophageal cancer. In addition, an overview of the current evidence on the importance of reproducibility of image features and the substantial influence of varying smoothing scales, quantization levels, and segmentation methods is provided.

Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Survival of Esophageal Cancer Patients after Esophagectomy

The aim of this study was to construct an effective clinical nomogram for predicting the survival of esophageal cancer patients after esophagectomy. We identified esophageal cancer patients (n = 4,281) who underwent esophagectomy between 1988 and 2007 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registries database. Clinically significant parameters for survival were used to construct a nomogram based on Cox regression analyses. The model was validated using bootstrap resampling and a Chinese cohort (n = 145). A total of 4,109 patients from the SEER database were included for analysis. The multivariate analyses showed that the factors of age, race, histology, tumor site, tumor size, grade and depth of invasion, and the numbers of metastases and retrieved nodes were independent prognostic factors. All of these factors were selected into the nomogram. The nomogram showed a clear prognostic superiority over the seventh AJCC-TNM classification (C-index: SEER cohort, 0.716 vs 0.693, respectively; P < 0.01; Chinese cohort, 0.699 vs 0.680, respectively; P < 0.01). Calibration of the nomogram predicted the probabilities of 3- and 5-year survival, which corresponded closely with the actual survival rates. This novel prognostic model may improve clinicians’ abilities to predict individualized survival and to make treatment recommendations.

Prediction of survival in patients with oesophageal or junctional cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery

Background

The value of conventional prognostic factors is unclear in the era of multimodal treatment for oesophageal cancer. This study aimed to quantify the impact of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and surgery on well established prognostic factors, and to develop and validate a prognostic model.

Methods

Patients treated with nCRT plus surgery were included. Multivariable Cox modelling was used to identify prognostic factors for overall survival. A prediction model for individual survival was developed using stepwise backward selection. The model was internally validated leading to a nomogram for use in clinical practice.

Results

Some 626 patients who underwent nCRT plus surgery were included. In the multivariable model, only pretreatment cN category and ypN category were independent prognostic factors. The final prognostic model included cN, ypT and ypN categories, and had moderate discrimination (c-index at internal validation 0·63).

Conclusion

In patients with oesophageal or oesophagogastric cancer treated with nCRT plus surgery, overall survival can best be estimated using a prediction model based on cN, ypT and ypN categories. Predicted survival according to this model showed only moderate correlation with observed survival, emphasizing the need for new prognostic factors to improve survival prediction.

The presence of lymphovascular and perineural infiltration after neoadjuvant therapy and oesophagectomy identifies patients at high risk for recurrence

Background:

In patients treated for oesophageal cancer the importance of lymphovascular and perineural invasion (PNI) after neoadjuvant therapy has yet to be established. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence and prognostic significance of these factors in a consecutive series of patients with cancer of the oesophagus or gastro-oesophageal junction (GOJ) who underwent neoadjuvant therapy followed by oesophagectomy.

Methods:

Clinical and pathology results from patients with potentially curable adenocarcinoma, or squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus or GOJ were reviewed. Patients were treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy or chemoradiation followed by transthoracic oesophagectomy and two-field lymphadenectomy. The presence of venous invasion (VI), lymph vessel invasion (LI) and perineural invasion (PNI) were correlated with clinical outcomes.

Results:

A total of 396 patients underwent oesophagectomy after neoadjuvant therapy for oesophageal cancer. Venous invasion was identified in 150 (38%) of patients, LI in 203 (51%) patients and PNI in 204 (52%) patients. In all, 123 (31%) patients had no evidence of either VI, LI or PNI. A total of 96 (24%) had a combination of two factors and 94 (24%) had all three factors. The presence of VI, LI and PNI was significantly related to tumour stage (P=0.001). Median overall survival was 170.8 months when all three factors were absent, 44.0 months when one factor was present, 27.1 months when two factors were present and 16.0 months when all were present. Multivariate analyses revealed VI, LI and PNI or a combination of these factors were independent predictors of prognosis.

Conclusions:

In oesophageal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy followed by oesophagectomy the presence of VI, LI and PNI has an important prognostic impact and may identify patients at high risk of recurrence who would benefit from adjuvant therapies.

Nomogram predicted survival of patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction

Background

The aim of this study is to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction and compare its predictive accuracy with the traditional tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) malignant staging system.

Methods

Patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (from 1988 to 2011) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University (from 2005 to 2010) were collected retrospectively. Preselected multiple potential interactions were tested irrespective of significance as nomogram parameters. And the Harrell’s C-index was used to estimate the accuracy of the nomogram system. Model validation was performed using bootstrap to quantify our modeling strategy.

Results

In our study, six clinical associated factors (age, sex, depth of invasion, metastasized lymph nodes, examined lymph nodes, histological grade) were evaluated in the nomogram. In the training set, the nomogram exhibited superior discrimination power compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (Harrell’s C-index, 0.69 and 0.63, respectively). Calibration of the nomogram predicted survival was similar to the actual overall survival. In the validation set, the discrimination of nomogram was also better than the AJCC TNM staging system (C-index, 0.75 and 0.65, respectively), and the calibration of nomogram predicted survival was within a 10 % margin of actual overall survival.

Conclusions

Based on the patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction from a Western and an Eastern database, the nomogram provided significantly improved discrimination than the traditional AJCC TNM classification and also provided an accurate individualized prediction of the survival.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12957-015-0613-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prognostic Nomogram for Thoracic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma after Radical Esophagectomy

Nomogram has demonstrated its capability in individualized estimates of survival in diverse cancers. Here we retrospectively investigated 1195 patients with esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent radical esophagectomy at Zhejiang Cancer Hospital in Hangzhou, China. We randomly assigned two-thirds of the patients to a training cohort (n = 797) and one-third to a validation cohort (n = 398). Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed using the training cohort, and a nomogram was developed for predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates. Multivariate analysis identified tumor length, surgical approach, number of examined lymph node, number of positive lymph node, extent of positive lymph node, grade, and depth of invasion as independent risk factors for survival. The discriminative ability of the nomogram was externally determined using the validation cohort, showing that the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination according to the C-index (0.715, 95% CI 0.671–0.759). The C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the sixth edition (0.664, P-value<0.0001) and the seventh edition (0.696, P-value<0.0003) of the TNM classification. This study developed the first nomogram for ESCC, which can be applied in daily clinical practice for individualized survival prediction.

Annual computed tomography scans do not improve outcomes following esophagectomy for cancer: a 10-year UK experience

Evidence for the best approach to follow-up patients after esophagectomy for cancer is scant and conflicting, and has led to a wide variety in practice. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether our annual routine computed tomography (aCT) scan program changes outcomes. A retrospective review of 169 patients who underwent esophagectomy for cancer in our unit between 2001 and 2010 was performed. aCT scan was part of follow-up in all patients to 5 years. Minimum follow-up was 37 months. The primary outcome measure was survival. Recurrence was detected in 61 cases (36%). aCT scan diagnosed recurrence in only a minority of cases (17 cases, 28%). In the majority of patients, clinical evidence prompted an unplanned CT scan (uCT; 44 cases, 72%). There was no difference in unadjusted survival between the two groups (hazard ratio = 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.34-1.08, P = 0.090), nor was one more likely to receive secondary oncological treatment (aCT 41% vs. uCT 44%, P = 1.000). When we adjusted survival patterns for confounding covariates, the uCT cohort showed a protective effect (hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.28-0.98, P = 0.042). These data suggest that aCT scans do not influence management or survival after esophagectomy. A consensus follow-up protocol for patients treated for esophageal cancer remains to be established.

Variation in gastroscopy rate in English general practice and outcome for oesophagogastric cancer: retrospective analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether variation in gastroscopy rates in English general practice populations is associated with inequality in oesophagogastric (OG) cancer outcome.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study of the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) dataset for England (2006-2008) linked to death registration.

METHODS

were validated using independent local and national data. General practices with new cases of OG cancer were included. Practices were grouped into tertiles according to standardised elective gastroscopy rate per capita (low, medium or high). Outcome measures for cancer cases were: emergency admission during diagnostic pathway, major surgical resection and mortality at 1 year. Covariates were: age group, gender, comorbidity, general practice average deprivation and patient deprivation.

RESULTS

22 488 incident cases of OG cancer from 6513 general practices were identified. Patients registered with the low tertile group of practices had the lowest rate of major surgery, highest rate of emergency admission and highest mortality. The inequality was widest for the most socioeconomically deprived cases. After adjustment for covariates in logistic regression, the gastroscopy rate (low, medium or high) at the patient's general practice was an independent predictor of emergency admission, major surgery and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

There is wide variation in the rate of gastroscopy among general practice populations in England. On average, OG cancer patients belonging to practices with the lowest rates of gastroscopy are at greater risk of poor outcome. These findings suggest that initiatives or current guidelines aimed at limiting the use of gastroscopy may adversely affect cancer outcomes.

Recurrence risk model for esophageal cancer after radical surgery

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to construct a risk assessment model which was tested by disease-free survival (DFS) of esophageal cancer after radical surgery.

METHODS

A total of 164 consecutive esophageal cancer patients who had undergone radical surgery between January 2005 and December 2006 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutpoint of value at risk (VaR) was inferred by stem-and-leaf plot, as well as by independent-samples t-test for recurrence-free time, further confirmed by crosstab chi-square test, univariate analysis and Cox regression analysis for DFS.

RESULTS

The cutpoint of VaR was 0.3 on the basis of our model. The rate of recurrence was 30.3% (30/99) and 52.3% (34/65) in VaR <0.3 and VaR ≥0.3 (chi-square test, (χ) (2) =7.984, P=0.005), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS of esophageal cancer after radical surgery was 70.4%, 48.7%, and 45.3%, respectively in VaR ≥0.3, whereas 91.5%, 75.8%, and 67.3%, respectively in VaR <0.3 (Log-rank test, (χ) (2) =9.59, P=0.0020), and further confirmed by Cox regression analysis [hazard ratio =2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2649-3.4751; P=0.0041].

CONCLUSIONS

The model could be applied for integrated assessment of recurrence risk after radical surgery for esophageal cancer.

Support vector machine-based nomogram predicts postoperative distant metastasis for patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background:

We aim to develop effective models for predicting postoperative distant metastasis for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) for the purpose of guiding tailored therapy.

Methods:

We used data from two centres to establish training (n=319) and validation (n=164) cohorts. All patients underwent curative surgical treatment. The clinicopathological features and 23 immunomarkers detected by immunohistochemistry were involved for variable selection. We constructed eight support vector machine (SVM)-based nomograms (SVM1–SVM4 and SVM1'–SVM4'). The nomogram constructed with the training cohort was tested further with the validation cohort.

Results:

The outcome of the SVM1 model in predicting postoperative distant metastasis was as follows: sensitivity, 44.7% specificity, 90.9% positive predictive value, 81.0% negative predictive value, 65.6% and overall accuracy, 69.5%. The corresponding outcome of the SVM2 model was as follows: 44.7%, 92.1%, 82.9%, 65.9%, and 70.1%, respectively. The corresponding outcome of the SVM3 model was as follows: 55.3%, 93.2%, 87.5%, 70.7%, and 75.6%, respectively. The SVM4 model was the most effective nomogram in prediction, and the corresponding outcome was as follows: 56.6%, 97.7%, 95.6%, 72.3%, and 78.7%, respectively.Similar results were observed in SVM1', SVM2', SVM3', and SVM4', respectively.

Conclusion:

The SVM-based models integrating clinicopathological features and molecular markers as variables are helpful in selecting the patients of OSCC with high risk of postoperative distant metastasis.

Three-gene immunohistochemical panel adds to clinical staging algorithms to predict prognosis for patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is a highly aggressive disease with poor long-term survival. Despite growing knowledge of its biology, no molecular biomarkers are currently used in routine clinical practice to determine prognosis or aid clinical decision making. Hence, this study set out to identify and validate a small, clinically applicable immunohistochemistry (IHC) panel for prognostication in patients with EAC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We recently identified eight molecular prognostic biomarkers using two different genomic platforms. IHC scores of these biomarkers from a UK multicenter cohort (N = 374) were used in univariate Cox regression analysis to determine the smallest biomarker panel with the greatest prognostic power with potential therapeutic relevance. This new panel was validated in two independent cohorts of patients with EAC who had undergone curative esophagectomy from the United States and Europe (N = 666).

RESULTS

Three of the eight previously identified prognostic molecular biomarkers (epidermal growth factor receptor [EGFR], tripartite motif-containing 44 [TRIM44], and sirtuin 2 [SIRT2]) had the strongest correlation with long-term survival in patients with EAC. Applying these three biomarkers as an IHC panel to the validation cohort segregated patients into two different prognostic groups (P < .01). Adjusting for known survival covariates, including clinical staging criteria, the IHC panel remained an independent predictor, with incremental adverse overall survival (OS) for each positive biomarker (hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.40 per biomarker; P = .02).

CONCLUSION

We identified and validated a clinically applicable IHC biomarker panel, consisting of EGFR, TRIM44, and SIRT2, that is independently associated with OS and provides additional prognostic information to current survival predictors such as stage.

Prediction of late-onset pouch failure in patients with restorative proctocolectomy with a nomogram

BACKGROUND

A proportion of UC patients with restorative proctocolectomy and IPAA develop pouch failure. Accurate risk assessment is critical for making proper evaluation and treatment. Information on factors that may reliably predict pouch failure for the patients requiring referral to a specialized care unit is minimal.

AIM

We sought to develop and internally validate a nomogram for the prediction of late-onset pouch failure.

METHODS

The study cohort included all eligible UC patients with restorative proctocolectomy and IPAA at the subspecialty Pouchitis Clinic from 2002 to 2009. Inclusion criteria were patients having: 1) inflammatory bowel disease; 2) ileal pouches; and 3) regular follow-up at the Pouchitis Clinic. Demographic and clinical variables were prospectively collected. Multivariable accelerated failure time regression model was developed to predict pouch failure defined as pouch excision or permanent diversion. Discrimination and calibration of the model were assessed following bootstrapping methods for correcting optimism, and the model was presented as a nomogram.

RESULTS

A total of 921 patients were included for the model. The mean age for this cohort was 45.5 years old. The mean follow-up at the Pouchitis Clinic was 5.8 years. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the probabilities for pouch retention are 0.939, 0.916 and 0.907 at 3, 5 and 7 years, respectively. The predictor variables which were included in the nomogram were smoking, duration of the pouch, baseline pouch diagnosis, and pre- and post-op use of biologics. The concordance index was 0.824. The nomogram seemed well calibrated based on the calibration curve.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram model appeared to predict late-onset pouch failure reasonably well with satisfactory concordance index and calibration curve. The nomogram is readily applicable for clinical practice in pouch patients.

The role of surgery in the management of Barrett's esophagus (from dysplasia to cancer)

The goal of this review is to evaluate, through a review of the surgical literature, the role of esophagectomy in the management of Barrett's esophagus as it evolves histologically from intestinal metaplasia through increasing grades of dysplasia to adenocarcinoma. We precisely define the indications and therapeutic modalities of esophagectomy for high-grade dysplasia, superficial adenocarcinoma, and invasive adenocarcinoma.

Nodal metastasis from locally advanced esophageal cancer: how neoadjuvant therapy modifies their frequency and distribution

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CT-RT) before esophagectomy seems to affect the number of nodal metastasis and to alter the distribution of those that remain. The aim of this study was to define how neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy changes nodal metastasis patterns in locally advanced esophageal cancer.

METHODS

A total of 402 consecutive patients with cancer of the esophagus or esophagogastric junction (181 adenocarcinoma [AC] and 221 squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]) (evaluated at clinical stage T1N1, T2N1, T3N0, or T3N1 and pathological stage M0) presenting in our Department between 1992 and 2007 and who underwent complete resection (R0) were included in this retrospective study on a prospectively collected database. All dissected lymph nodes were retrieved and microscopically analyzed. Nodal metastasis patterns in patients who underwent chemotherapy (CT) or chemoradiotherapy (CT-RT) neoadjuvant therapy were compared with those in patients who underwent surgery alone.

RESULTS

Almost 30% of the adenocarcinoma patients and approximately 40% of the SCC patients showed effective tumor downstaging after neoadjuvant therapy. There were fewer paracardial node metastases (P = .002) in the AC patients who underwent CT-RT neoadjuvant therapy. There were, likewise, significantly fewer paraesophageal, paracardial, and subcarinal node metastases in the SCC patients in whom the perigastric nodes became the second-most frequent site of metastasis.

CONCLUSION

Not only was frequency of lymph node metastases decreased after neoadjuvant therapy, but nodal localization and pattern were also significantly modified.

Proposed follow up programme after curative resection for lower third oesophageal cancer

The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has risen throughout the Western world over the last three decades. The prognosis remains poor as many patients are elderly and present with advanced disease. Those patients who are suitable for resection remain at high risk of disease recurrence. It is important that cancer patients take part in a follow up protocol to detect disease recurrence, offer psychological support, manage nutritional disorders and facilitate audit of surgical outcomes. Despite the recognition that regular postoperative follow up plays a key role in ongoing care of cancer patients, there is little consensus on the nature of the process. This paper reviews the published literature to determine the optimal timing and type of patient follow up for those after curative oesophageal resection.

Esophageal stents for the palliation of malignant dysphagia and fistula recurrence after esophagectomy

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in staging methods, surgical techniques, and adjuvant treatment, recurrent cancer after esophagectomy is a major cause of morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

Our purpose was to investigate the safety and efficacy of a self-expandable metal stent (SEMS) in patients with dysphagia or fistula caused by recurrent cancer after esophagectomy.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational study with standardized treatment and follow-up.

SETTING

Single university center.

PATIENTS

In 81 patients with recurrent cancer after previous surgical esophagectomy, 100 esophageal SEMSs were inserted for dysphagia (n = 66) or fistula formation (n = 15).

INTERVENTIONS

Stent placement.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Technical and functional outcome, complications, and survival.

RESULTS

The SEMSs restored luminal patency in 65 (98%) of 66 patients and sealed malignant fistulae in 14 (93%) of 15 patients. Stent dysfunction occurred in 24 (30%) of 81 patients. They all were successfully managed by subsequent endoscopic intervention. After stent placement, a total of 16 complications were observed. Major complications occurred in 9 (11%) of 81 patients, mild complications occurred in 7 (9%) of 81 patients. The overall 30-day mortality rate after stent insertion was 25%. Progression of the disease resulted in death after a median interval of 70 days (range 1 day to 91 months).

LIMITATIONS

Nonrandomized design.

CONCLUSIONS

SEMS placement in recurrent esophageal cancer after surgical resection offers adequate palliation by relieving dysphagia and sealing off esophageal respiratory fistulae. Therefore, in these patients who have a relatively short life expectancy, SEMS placement should be considered the treatment of choice.

Laparoscopic and thoracoscopic esophagectomy

Over the past decade, our technique of MIE has evolved considerably. In the incipient phase of our experience, we used a totally laparoscopic approach similar to that described in the initial reports from DePaula and colleagues and Swanstrom and Hansen. However, it was soon apparent that there were several critical disadvantages to a purely laparoscopic approach. Laparoscopic transhiatal mobilization of the esophagus offers suboptimal visualization of important periesophageal structures, including the inferior pulmonary vein and the left mainstem bronchus. Moreover, decreased visibility hindered hemostatic division of periesophageal vessels and negatively impacted the completeness of the mediastinal lymph node dissection. These problems are further exacerbated in taller patients. In light of these considerations, we soon transitioned to a laparoscopic-thoracoscopic McKeown approach (thoracoscopic mobilization of the intrathoracic esophagus, laparoscopic gastric tube creation, cervical anastomosis). To this date, the great majority of our minimally invasive esophagectomies (>500 cases) have been performed with this 3-field technique. Indeed, the procedure has been the mainstay of our experience in the past 10 years with reduced perioperative morbidity and mortality compared with many other open series. In our experience, perhaps the most significant technical concern with this operation is the cervical dissection. Recurrent laryngeal nerve injuries, perturbations in pharyngeal transit, and swallowing dysfunction even in the absence of recurrent nerve injury are not infrequent. Moreover, as described in open series using a cervical anastomosis, anastomotic stricture and leak have been shown to occur with increased frequency [35]. In short, there is a significant learning curve with the cervical dissection. Out of these concerns emerged our more recent experience with completely thoracoscopic-laparoscopic Ivor Lewis esophagectomy. However, we did first evolve through a transition phase whereby a mini-thoracotomy (hybrid approach) was performed for creation of the intrathoracic anastomosis. We believe that the experience with totally thoracoscopic-laparoscopic Ivor Lewis esophagectomy will ultimately reproduce the low morbidity and mortality we have previously published with our established MIE technique. The omission of a cervical dissection has reduced our recurrent nerve injury rate to zero. From a theoretical standpoint, one would presume that pharyngeal transit problems and oropharyngeal swallowing dysfunction should be reduced as well with a chest anastomosis. It should be emphasized that there is a steep operator learning curve associated with this approach. Indeed, thoracoscopic port placement is critical, as poorly positioned trocars can result in difficulty maneuvering instruments through the rigid chest wall. Additionally, both blood and lung can obscure visualization of the esophagus, which lies at the dependent aspect of the operative field. Prone positioning has been described as an alternative approach that may facilitate operative exposure and address such technical concerns. Low rates of anastomotic leak (3%), low mortality (1.5%), and equivalent stage-specific survival compared with open series have been shown with this thoracoscopic prone approach [36]. In conclusion, our technique of MIE has evolved such that laparoscopic-thoracoscopic Ivor Lewis esophagectomy has become our preferred approach. Although somewhat early in our experience, we are convinced that this operative technique is feasible with reproducible results. Perioperative morbidity and mortality are comparable with our previously established MIE with cervical anastomosis while essentially eliminating recurrent nerve injury, limiting the length of the gastric conduit required, and allowing a more aggressive gastric resection margin. Recent data from other publications also suggests that lymph node yields may be improved, although insufficient data exist at this time to comment on oncologic results or outcomes with this technique.

Evaluation of peri-operative chemotherapy using a prognostic nomogram for survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases

INTRODUCTION

Nomograms are statistical tools designed to predict outcomes. This study evaluates the effects of peri-operative chemotherapy on the accuracy of a prognostic nomogram for disease-specific survival (DSS) after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) established at Memorial-Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC).

METHODS

An external cohort of 203 patients who underwent resection of CRLM between 1996 and 2006 was used to assess the nomogram.

RESULTS

After median follow-up of 30.4 months (range 0.33-150), Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates for 3-, 5- and 8-year post-resection DSS were 56%, 41%, and 32%, respectively; similar to nomogram-predicted probabilities for DSS. The concordance index for the nomogram was higher (0.602) than for the Fong colorectal risk score (CRS; 0.533). KM DSS was longer for patients (n= 50) treated with at least 6 months of peri-operative irinotecan or oxaliplatin compared with all other patients (median 66 vs. 40 months, P= 0.06). KM DSS was greater than nomogram predicted DSS for treated patients and less than nomogram predicted DSS for all other patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The CRLM nomogram was validated by an external cohort and more accurately predicted post-resection survival than the commonly used CRS. Differences in observed and nomogram-predicted survival may reflect the effect of treatment factors, such as peri-operative chemotherapy.