Should All Status 1A Patients Be Prioritized Over High MELD Patients? Concept of Risk Stratification in Extremely Ill Liver Transplant Recipients

Liver Transplant Recipient Characteristics Associated With Worse Post-Transplant Outcomes in Using Elderly Donors

Advanced age of liver donor is a risk factor for graft loss after transplant. We sought to identify recipient characteristics associated with negative post-liver transplant (LT) outcomes in the context of elderly donors. Using 2014–2019 OPTN/UNOS data, LT recipients were classified by donor age: ≥70, 40–69, and <40 years. Recipient risk factors for one-year graft loss were identified and created a risk stratification system and validated it using 2020 OPTN/UNOS data set. At transplant, significant recipient risk factors for one-year graft loss were: previous liver transplant (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 4.37, 95%CI 1.98–9.65); mechanical ventilation (aHR 4.28, 95%CI 1.95–9.43); portal thrombus (aHR 1.87, 95%CI 1.26–2.77); serum sodium <125 mEq/L (aHR 2.88, 95%CI 1.34–6.20); and Karnofsky score 10–30% (aHR 2.03, 95%CI 1.13–3.65), 40–60% (aHR 1.65, 95%CI 1.08–2.51). Using those risk factors and multiplying HRs, recipients were divided into low-risk (n = 931) and high-risk (n = 294). Adjusted risk of one-year graft loss in the low-risk recipient group was similar to that of patients with younger donors; results were consistent using validation dataset. Our results show that a system of careful recipient selection can reduce the risks of graft loss associated with older donor age.

Life expectancy without a transplant for status 1A liver transplant candidates

Status 1A liver transplant candidates are given the highest medical priority for the allocation of deceased donor livers. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) policy requires physicians to certify that a candidate has a life expectancy without a transplant of less than 7 days for that candidate to be given status 1A. Additionally, candidates receiving status 1A must have one of six medical conditions listed in policy. Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from all prevalent liver transplant candidates from 2010 to 2020, we used a bias-corrected Kaplan-Meier model to calculate the survival of status 1A candidates and to determine their life expectancy without a transplant. We found that status 1A candidates have a life expectancy without a transplant of 24 (95% CI 20-46) days-over three times longer than what policy requires for status 1A designation. We repeated the analysis for subgroups of status 1A candidates based on the medical conditions that grant status 1A. We found that none of these subgroups met the life expectancy requirement. Harmonizing OPTN policy with observed data would sustain the integrity of the allocation process.

The Precise Relationship Between Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Survival Without a Liver Transplant

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Scores from the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), which are used to prioritize candidates for deceased donor livers, are widely acknowledged to be negatively correlated with the 90-day survival rate without a liver transplant. However, inconsistent and outdated estimates of survival probabilities by MELD preclude useful applications of the MELD score.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Using data from all prevalent liver waitlist candidates from 2016 to 2019, we estimated 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, and 90-day without-transplant survival probabilities (with confidence intervals) for each MELD score and status 1A. We used an adjusted Kaplan-Meier model to avoid unrealistic assumptions and multiple observations per person instead of just the observation at listing. We found that 90-day without-transplant survival has improved over the last decade, with survival rates increasing >10% (in absolute terms) for some MELD scores. We demonstrated that MELD correctly prioritizes candidates in terms of without-transplant survival probability but that status 1A candidates' short-term without-transplant survival is higher than that of MELD 40 candidates and lower than that of MELD 39 candidates. Our primary result is the updated survival functions themselves.

CONCLUSIONS

We calculated without-transplant survival probabilities for each MELD score (and status 1A). The survival function is an invaluable tool for many applications in liver transplantation: awarding of exception points, calculating the relative demand for deceased donor livers in different geographic areas, calibrating the pediatric end-stage liver disease score, and deciding whether to accept an offered liver.

Elevated serum sodium in recipients of liver transplantation has a substantial impact on outcomes

Dysnatremias are a rare but significant event in liver transplantation. While recipient pre-transplant hypernatremia has been demonstrated to increase post-transplant mortality, the degree of hypernatremia and the impact of its resolution have been less well characterized. Here, we used multivariate Cox regression with a comprehensive list of donor and recipient factors in order to conduct a robust multivariate retrospective database study of 54,311 United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) liver transplant patients to analyze the effect of pre-transplant serum sodium on post-transplant mortality, post-transplant length of hospitalization, and post-transplant graft survival. Mortality and graft failure increased in a stepwise fashion with increasing pre-transplant hypernatremia: 145 -150 mEq/L (HR = 1.118 and HR = 1.113), 150-155 mEq/L (HR = 1.324 and HR = 1.306), and > 155 mEq/L (HR = 1.623 and HR = 1.661). Pre-transplant hypo- and hypernatremia also increased length of post-transplant hospitalization: < 125 mEq/L (HR = 1.098), 125-130 mEq/L (HR = 1.060), 145 -150 mEq/L (HR = 1.140), and 150-155 mEq/L (HR = 1.358). Resolution of hypernatremia showed no significant difference in mortality compared with normonatremia, while unresolved hypernatremia significantly increased mortality (HR = 1.254), including a durable long-term increased mortality risk for patients with creatinine < 2 mg/dL and MELD < 25. Pre-transplant hypernatremia serves as a morbid prognostic indicator for post-transplant morbidity and mortality.