Survival Benefit of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Liver transplantation vs liver resection in HCC: promoting extensive collaborative research through a survival meta-analysis of meta-analyses

Background

HCC is a major global health concern, necessitating effective treatment strategies. This study conducts a meta-analysis of meta-analyses comparing liver resection (LR) and liver transplantation (LT) for HCC.

Methods

The systematic review included meta-analyses comparing liver resection vs. liver transplantation in HCC, following PRISMA guidelines. Primary outcomes included 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). AMSTAR-2 assessed study quality. Citation matrix and hierarchical clustering validated the consistency of the included studies.

Results

A search identified 10 meta-analyses for inclusion. The median Pearson correlation coefficient for citations was 0.59 (IQR 0.41-0.65). LT showed better 5-year survival and disease-free survival in all HCC (OR): 0.79; 95% CI: 0.67-0.93, I^2:57% and OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.25-0.75, I^2:96%). Five-year survival in early HCC and ITT was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.50-0.78, I^2:0%) and 0.60 (95% CI: 0.39-0.92, I^2:0%). Salvage LT vs. Primary LT did not differ between 5-year survival and disease-free survival (OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.33-1.15, I^2:0% and 0.93; 95% CI: 0.82-1.04, I^2:0%).

Conclusion

Overall, the study underscores the superior survival outcomes associated with LT over LR in HCC treatment, supported by comprehensive meta-analysis and clustering analysis. There was no difference in survival or recurrence rate between salvage LT and primary LT. Therefore, considering the organ shortage, HCC can be resected and transplanted in case of recurrence.

Association between statin exposure and short-term mortality in patients with high-grade acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality for patients with cirrhosis. Prior literature suggests that statin exposure may reduce the likelihood of ACLF events. However, it is unclear if statin exposure is associated with ACLF-related mortality. This study sought to determine the association between statin use and short-term mortality among patients hospitalised with ACLF.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between 2008 and 2021 and hospitalised with high-grade (2 or 3) ACLF. Patients were stratified into those with and without continuous statin exposure for at least 90 days prior to hospitalisation. Multivariable logistic regression models were created to determine the adjusted association between statin exposure and 28-day and 90-day mortality. Categorical statin dose exposure, converted to simvastatin equivalents, was also explored.

Results

A total of 11,731 patients with cirrhosis hospitalised with Grade 2 or 3 ACLF were included in the analytic cohort, 26% of whom had statin exposure. In adjusted logistic regression models, statin use was associated with 18% lower odds of ACLF-related 28-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0.93, p = 0.001) and 24% lower odds of 90-day mortality (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68-0.86, p <0.001). Increasing statin dose exposure was also associated with further reductions in 90-day mortality (e.g. OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.70-0.93 for 10-40 mg vs. 0 mg and OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.60-0.87 for 80 mg vs. 0 mg, p <0.001).

Conclusions

In this large, retrospective cohort study, statin exposure before high-grade ACLF hospitalisation was associated with reduced odds of 28-day and 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis. A statin dose-dependent reduction in 90-day ACLF-related mortality was also observed.

Impact and Implications

Statins have been identified as a class of medications with potential beneficial effects for patients with cirrhosis. In this large, retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who seek care at the Veterans Health Administration, statin use was associated with a decrease in short term (28-day and 90-day) mortality as a result of acute-on-chronic liver failure. Future prospective studies are needed to further clarify the relative safety and efficacy of statin therapy in reducing morbidity and mortality associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis.

Outcomes in Elderly Patients Undergoing Liver Transplantation Compared with Liver-Directed Ablative Therapy in Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is the accepted treatment in patients with unresectable, early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the setting of cirrhosis. Due to increasing waitlist demand for OLT, determining optimal groups for transplant is critical. Elderly patients are known to have poorer postoperative outcomes. Considering the effectiveness of liver-directed therapies for HCC, we sought to determine whether elderly patients received survival benefit from OLT over liver-directed therapy alone.

STUDY DESIGN

The National Cancer Database participant use file was used to analyze data between 2004 and 2017. Only patients ≥70 years of age who received OLT or liver-directed therapy alone were included. Patients with alpha-fetoprotein >500 ng/mL or missing alpha-fetoprotein values were excluded. Baseline demographic variables, model for end-stage liver disease score, and overall survival from time of diagnosis were collected. Descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier survival, Cox proportional hazards model, and propensity score matching were used.

RESULTS

A total of 2,377 patients received ablative therapy alone, and 214 patients received OLT. Multivariable analysis and Kaplan-Meier showed that OLT conferred a significant survival benefit compared to liver-directed therapy alone. Age was also associated with a yearly 3% increase in risk of mortality. Propensity-matched analysis adjusting also demonstrated a significant survival benefit for elderly patients receiving OLT compared to liver-directed therapy alone.

CONCLUSION

Despite increased age and associated comorbidities being factors associated with poor outcomes, OLT confers a survival advantage compared to liver-directed ablative therapies alone in selected elderly patients with HCC. OLT should be offered in medically appropriate elderly patients with HCC.

Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Decompensation and Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of postoperative mortality for a range of surgeries; however, they are also at risk of postoperative complications such as infection and cirrhosis decompensation. To date, there are no prediction scores that specifically risk stratify patients for these morbidities.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study using data of patients with cirrhosis who underwent diverse surgeries in the Veterans Health Administration. Validated algorithms and/or manual adjudication were used to ascertain postoperative decompensation and postoperative infection through 90 days. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate prediction models in derivation and validation sets using variables from the recently-published Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn cirrhosis surgical risk scores for postoperative mortality. Models were compared with the Mayo risk score, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-sodium, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores.

RESULTS

A total 4712 surgeries were included; patients were predominantly male (97.2 %), white (63.3 %), and with alcohol-related liver disease (35.3 %). Through 90 postoperative days, 8.7 % of patients experienced interval decompensation, and 4.5 % infection. Novel VOCAL-Penn prediction models for decompensation demonstrated good discrimination for interval decompensation (C-statistic 0.762 vs 0.663 Mayo vs 0.603 MELD-sodium vs 0.560 CTP; P < .001); however, discrimination was only fair for postoperative infection (C-statistic 0.666 vs 0.592 Mayo [P = .13] vs 0.502 MELD-sodium [P < .001] vs 0.503 CTP [P < .001]). The model for interval decompensation had excellent calibration in both derivation and validation sets.

CONCLUSION

We report the derivation and internal validation of a novel, parsimonious prediction model for postoperative decompensation in patients with cirrhosis. This score demonstrated superior discrimination and calibration as compared with existing clinical standards, and will be available at www.vocalpennscore.com.

Statin exposure is associated with reduced development of acute-on-chronic liver failure in a Veterans Affairs cohort

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

There is a need to identify therapies that prevent the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with cirrhosis. This study sought to evaluate the association between statin exposure and the risk of developing ACLF in a large national cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with cirrhosis within the Veterans Health Administration from 2008 and 2018. Patients were stratified into 3 groups based on statin exposure (statin naïve, existing statin user, and new statin initiator). Cox proportional hazards regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and marginal structural models were utilized to comprehensively address potential confounding in estimating the association between time-updated statin exposure and first occurrence of high-grade ACLF.

RESULTS

The cohort included 84,963 patients, of whom 26.9% were on a statin at baseline. A total of 8,558 (10.1%) patients with cirrhosis were hospitalized with high-grade ACLF over a median follow-up time of 51.6 months (IQR 27.5-81.4). Time-updated statin use was associated with a significant reduction in the hazard of developing ACLF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62, 95% CI 0.59-0.65, p <0.001). Increasing doses of statin were associated with progressively reduced hazard of developing ACLF (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.86, p <0.001 for <20 mg vs. 0 mg of time-updated statin exposure, in simvastatin equivalents; HR 0.61, 95%, CI 0.58-0.64, p <0.001 for >20 mg vs. 0 mg statin exposure). Furthermore, every additional 5 months of statin exposure was associated with a 9% reduced hazard of high-grade ACLF (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.92, p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large, retrospective, cohort study in patients with cirrhosis, statin use was significantly associated with reduced development of high-grade ACLF.

LAY SUMMARY

Statin therapy has been shown to have numerous beneficial effects in patients with chronic liver disease. This study demonstrated a strong association between statin therapy and a reduced risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure development in patients with cirrhosis. The results of this study support the promising role that statins may play in future prevention of acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis.

The Treatment Effect of Liver Transplantation versus Liver Resection for HCC: A Review and Future Perspectives

For patients presenting with hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria, either liver resection or liver transplantation can be performed. However, to what extent either of these treatment options is superior in terms of long-term survival is unknown. Obviously, the comparison of these treatments is complicated by several selection processes. In this article, we comprehensively review the current literature with a focus on factors accounting for selection bias. Thus far, studies that did not perform an intention-to-treat analysis conclude that liver transplantation is superior to liver resection for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. In contrast, studies performing an intention-to-treat analysis state that survival is comparable between both modalities. Furthermore, all studies demonstrate that disease-free survival is longer after liver transplantation compared to liver resection. With respect to the latter, implications of recurrences for survival are rarely discussed. Heterogeneous treatment effects and logical inconsistencies indicate that studies with a higher level of evidence are needed to determine if liver transplantation offers a survival benefit over liver resection. However, randomised controlled trials, as the golden standard, are believed to be infeasible. Therefore, we suggest an alternative research design from the causal inference literature. The rationale for a regression discontinuity design that exploits the natural experiment created by the widely adopted Milan criteria will be discussed. In this type of study, the analysis is focused on liver transplantation patients just within the Milan criteria and liver resection patients just outside, hereby ensuring equal distribution of confounders.

Baohuoside I Inhibits the Proliferation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Cells via Apoptosis Signaling and NF-kB Pathway

Baohuoside I is a flavonoid isolated from Epimedium koreanum Nakai and has many pharmacological activities. However, its role in liver cancer remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the inhibitory effect of Baohuoside I on the Human Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) cell lines QGY7703, and underlying mechanisms. QGY7703 cells were used as the model to assess the function of Baohuoside I in vitro. The effects of Baohuoside I on QGY7703 cells' growth, proliferation, and invasiveness were confirmed by CCK-8, lactate dehydrogenase release, and invasion assays. Cell apoptosis was analyzed by flow cytometry, and the levels of cleaved Caspase-3, Bax, and Bcl-2 were quantified by western blot. Western blot analysis, nuclear translocation of NF-κB, and Q-PCR were used to measure the expression of affected molecules. In QGY7703 cells, Baohuoside I induced the expression of molecules related to NF-κB pathway. The toxicity of Baohuoside I on QGY7703 cells was also confirmed in vivo, in a tumor model. Baohuoside I had a significant toxic effect on QGY7703 cells from a concentration of 10 μM. This compound significantly inhibited the proliferation of QGY7703 cells by inducing apoptosis and downregulating NF-κB signaling pathway. Thus, Baohuoside I is a novel candidate drug and opens new possibilities of clinical strategies for HCC treatment.

The Predictive Role of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Lactate and Lactate Clearance for In-Hospital Mortality Among a National Cirrhosis Cohort

The burden of cirrhosis hospitalizations is increasing. The admission Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-lactate (MELD-lactate) was recently demonstrated to be a superior predictor of in-hospital mortality compared with MELD in limited cohorts. We identified specific classes of hospitalizations where MELD-lactate may be especially useful and evaluated the predictive role of lactate clearance. This was a retrospective cohort study of 1036 cirrhosis hospitalizations for gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, or other portal hypertension-related indications in the Veterans Health Administration where MELD-lactate was measured on admission. Performance characteristics for in-hospital mortality were compared between MELD-lactate and MELD/MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), with stratified analyses of MELD categories (≤15, >15 to <25, ≥25) and reason for admission. We also incorporated day 3 lactate levels into modeling and tested for an interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance. MELD-lactate had superior discrimination for in-hospital mortality compared with MELD or MELD-Na (area under the curve [AUC] 0.789 versus 0.776 versus 0.760, respectively; P < 0.001) and superior calibration. MELD-lactate had higher discrimination among hospitalizations with MELD ≤15 (AUC 0.763 versus 0.608 for MELD, global P = 0.01) and hospitalizations for infection (AUC 0.791 versus 0.674 for MELD, global P < 0.001). We found a significant interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance; heat maps were created as clinical tools to risk-stratify patients based on these clinical data. MELD-lactate had significantly superior performance in predicting in-hospital mortality among patients hospitalized for infection and/or with MELD ≤15 when compared with MELD or MELD-Na. Incorporating day 3 lactate clearance may further improve prognostication.

Patient Frailty Is Independently Associated With the Risk of Hospitalization for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

There is significant interest in identifying risk factors associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). In transplant candidates, frailty predicts wait-list mortality and posttransplant outcomes. However, the impact of frailty on ACLF development and mortality is unknown. This was a retrospective study of US veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016. First hospitalizations were characterized as ACLF or non-ACLF admissions. Prehospitalization patient frailty was ascertained using a validated score based on administrative coding data. We used logistic regression to investigate the impact of an increasing frailty score on the odds of ACLF hospitalization and short-term ACLF mortality. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between frailty and longterm survival from hospitalization. We identified 16,561 cirrhosis hospitalizations over a median follow-up of 4.19 years (interquartile range, 2.47-6.34 years). In adjusted models, increasing frailty score was associated with significantly increased odds of ACLF hospitalization versus non-ACLF hospitalization (odds ratio, 1.03 per point; 95% CI 1.02-1.03; P < 0.001). By contrast, frailty score was not associated with ACLF 28- or 90-day mortality (P = 0.13 and P = 0.33, respectively). In an adjusted Cox analysis of all hospitalizations, increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer longterm survival from the time of hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.02 per 5 points; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.03; P = 0.004). Frailty increases the likelihood of ACLF hospitalization among patients with cirrhosis, but it does not impact short-term ACLF mortality. These findings have implications for clinicians caring for frail outpatients with cirrhosis, including tailored follow-up, risk mitigation strategies, and possible expedited transplant evaluation.

Risk Prediction Models for Post-Operative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of postoperative mortality. Currently available tools to predict postoperative risk are suboptimally calibrated and do not account for surgery type. Our objective was to use population-level data to derive and internally validate cirrhosis surgical risk models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) cohort, which contains granular data on patients with cirrhosis from 128 U.S. medical centers, merged with the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) to identify surgical procedures. We categorized surgeries as abdominal wall, vascular, abdominal, cardiac, chest, or orthopedic and used multivariable logistic regression to model 30-, 90-, and 180-day postoperative mortality (VOCAL-Penn models). We compared model discrimination and calibration of VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo Risk Score (MRS), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium MELD-Na, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores. We identified 4,712 surgical procedures in 3,785 patients with cirrhosis. The VOCAL-Penn models were derived and internally validated with excellent discrimination (30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic = 0.859; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.809-0.909). Predictors included age, preoperative albumin, platelet count, bilirubin, surgery category, emergency indication, fatty liver disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and obesity. Model performance was superior to MELD, MELD-Na, CTP, and MRS at all time points (e.g., 30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic for MRS = 0.766; 95% CI, 0.676-0.855) in terms of discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The VOCAL-Penn models substantially improve postoperative mortality predictions in patients with cirrhosis. These models may be applied in practice to improve preoperative risk stratification and optimize patient selection for surgical procedures (www.vocalpennscore.com).

A 2020 update on liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most frequent liver tumor and is associated with chronic liver disease in 90% of cases. In selected cases, liver transplantation represents an effective therapy with excellent overall survival.

AREA COVERED

Since the introduction of Milan criteria in 1996, numerous alternative selection systems to LT for HCC patients have been proposed. Debate remains about how best to select HCC patients for transplant and how to prioritize them on the waiting list.

EXPERT OPINION

The selection of the best scoring system to propose in the context of LT for HCC is far to be identified. In this review, we analyze and categorize the various selection systems, assessing their roles in the different decisional phases.

T2 Hepatocellular Carcinoma Exception Policies That Prolong Waiting Time Improve the Use of Evidence-based Treatment Practices

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background.

A United Network for Organ Sharing policy change in 2015 created a 6-mo delay in the receipt of T2 hepatocellular carcinoma exception points. It was hypothesized that the policy changed locoregional therapy (LRT) practices and explant findings because of longer expected waiting time.

Methods.

Patients transplanted with a first T2 hepatocellular carcinoma exception application between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2014 (prepolicy; N = 6562), and those between August 10, 2015 and December 2, 2019 (postpolicy; N = 2345), were descriptively compared using data from United Network for Organ Sharing.

Results.

Median time from first application to transplantation was more homogenous across the US postpolicy, due to greater absolute increases in Regions 3, 6, 10, and 11 (>120 d). During waitlisting, postpolicy candidates received more LRT overall (P < 0.001), with more notable increases in previously short-wait regions. Postpolicy explants were overall more likely to have ≥1 tumor with complete necrosis (23.9 versus 18.4%; P < 0.001) and less likely have ≥1 tumor with no necrosis (32.6% versus 38.5%; P < 0.001). Significant geographic variability in explant treatment response was observed prepolicy with recipients in previously short-wait regions having more frequent tumor viability at transplant. Postpolicy, there were no differences in the prevalence of recipients with ≥1 tumor with 100% or 0% necrosis across regions (P = 0.9 and 0.2, respectively).

Conclusions.

The 2015 T2 exception policy has led to reduced geographic variability in the use of pretransplant LRT and in less frequent tumor viability on explant for recipients in previously short-waiting times.