Phenotyping Hepatic Immune-Related Adverse Events in the Setting of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Therapy

PURPOSE

We present and validate a rule-based algorithm for the detection of moderate to severe liver-related immune-related adverse events (irAEs) in a real-world patient cohort. The algorithm can be applied to studies of irAEs in large data sets.

METHODS

We developed a set of criteria to define hepatic irAEs. The criteria include: the temporality of elevated laboratory measurements in the first 2-14 weeks of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment, steroid intervention within 2 weeks of the onset of elevated laboratory measurements, and intervention with a duration of at least 2 weeks. These criteria are based on the kinetics of patients who experienced moderate to severe hepatotoxicity (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grades 2-4). We applied these criteria to a retrospective cohort of 682 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma and treated with ICI. All patients were required to have baseline laboratory measurements before and after the initiation of ICI.

RESULTS

A set of 63 equally sampled patients were reviewed by two blinded, clinical adjudicators. Disagreements were reviewed and consensus was taken to be the ground truth. Of these, 25 patients with irAEs were identified, 16 were determined to be hepatic irAEs, 36 patients were nonadverse events, and two patients were of indeterminant status. Reviewers agreed in 44 of 63 patients, including 19 patients with irAEs (0.70 concordance, Fleiss' kappa: 0.43). By comparison, the algorithm achieved a sensitivity and specificity of identifying hepatic irAEs of 0.63 and 0.81, respectively, with a test efficiency (percent correctly classified) of 0.78 and outcome-weighted F1 score of 0.74.

CONCLUSION

The algorithm achieves greater concordance with the ground truth than either individual clinical adjudicator for the detection of irAEs.

Integrative common and rare variant analyses provide insights into the genetic architecture of liver cirrhosis

We report a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study on liver cirrhosis and its associated endophenotypes, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and γ-glutamyl transferase. Using data from 12 cohorts, including 18,265 cases with cirrhosis, 1,782,047 controls, up to 1 million individuals with liver function tests and a validation cohort of 21,689 cases and 617,729 controls, we identify and validate 14 risk associations for cirrhosis. Many variants are located near genes involved in hepatic lipid metabolism. One of these, PNPLA3 p.Ile148Met, interacts with alcohol intake, obesity and diabetes on the risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We develop a polygenic risk score that associates with the progression from cirrhosis to HCC. By focusing on prioritized genes from common variant analyses, we find that rare coding variants in GPAM associate with lower ALT, supporting GPAM as a potential target for therapeutic inhibition. In conclusion, this study provides insights into the genetic underpinnings of cirrhosis.

Refractory hepatic hydrothorax is associated with increased mortality with death occurring at lower MELD-Na compared to cirrhosis and refractory ascites

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Although refractory hepatic hydrothorax (RH) is a serious complication of cirrhosis, waitlisted patients do not receive standardized Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) exemption because of inadequate evidence suggesting mortality above biochemical MELD. This study aimed to examine liver-related death (LRD) associated with RH compared to refractory ascites (RA).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This was a retrospective cohort study of Veterans with cirrhosis. Eligibility criteria included participants with RH or RA, followed from their first therapeutic thoracentesis/second paracentesis until death or transplantation. The primary outcome was LRD with non-LRD or transplantation as competing risk. Of 2552 patients with cirrhosis who underwent therapeutic thoracentesis/paracentesis, 177 met criteria for RH and 422 for RA. RH was associated with a significantly higher risk of LRD (adjusted HR [aHR] 4.63, 95% CI 3.31-6.48) than RA overall and within all MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) strata (<10 aHR 4.08, 95% CI 2.30-7.24, 10-14.9 aHR 5.68, 95% CI 2.63-12.28, 15-24.9 aHR 4.14, 95% CI 2.34-7.34, ≥25 aHR 7.75, 95% CI 2.99-20.12). LRD was higher among participants requiring 1 (aHR 3.54, 95% CI 2.29-5.48), 2-3 (aHR 4.39, 95% CI 2.91-6.63), and ≥4 (aHR 7.89, 95% CI 4.82-12.93) thoracenteses relative to RA. Although participants with RH and RA had similar baseline MELD-Na, LRD occurred in RH versus RA at a lower MELD-Na (16.5 vs. 21.82, p =0.002) but higher MELD 3.0 (27.85 vs. 22.48, p <0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

RH was associated with higher risk of LRD than RA at equivalent MELD-Na. By contrast, MELD 3.0 may better predict risk of LRD in RH.

Liver Stiffness Measurement and Risk Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After HCV Eradication in Veterans With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis secondary to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) are at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) despite a sustained virological response (SVR). We examined whether post-SVR liver stiffness measurement (LSM) could be used to stratify HCC risk.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 1850 participants identified from the Veterans Health Administration, with HCV cirrhosis and SVR, followed up over 5099 person-years, from the time of post-SVR elastography until death, HCC, or the end of the study.

RESULTS

The risk of HCC increased by 3% with every 1-kPa increase in LSM (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.04; P < .001) and decreased with the number of years from SVR (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.90; P = .0003). The adjusted annual risk of HCC was 2.03% among participants with post-SVR LSM <10 kPa, 2.48% in LSM 10-14.9 kPa (aHR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.01-2.88; P = .046), 3.22% for LSM 15-19.9 kPa (aHR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.78-3.20; P = .20), 5.07% among LSM 20-24.9 kPa (aHR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.30-5.01; P = .01), and 5.44% in LSM ≥25 kPa (aHR, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.74-5.26; P < .0001). The adjusted annual risk of HCC was < 0.4% in participants with LSM <5 kPa and without diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSIONS

LSM predicts rates of HCC in patients with HCV cirrhosis after SVR at multiple cutoff levels and offers a single test to predict portal hypertension-related complications and HCC. Patients with LSM <5 kPa in the absence of diabetes mellitus had a low risk of HCC in which surveillance could be discontinued.

The Impact of Weight Loss Programs on BMI Trajectory in Patients with Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease: A Veterans Health Administration Study

BACKGROUND

Weight loss is the mainstay of management for patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. We studied the impact of referral to MOVE!, a nationally-implemented behavioral weight loss program, on weight in MASLD patients.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 102,294 MASLD patients from 125 Veterans Health Administration centers from 2008-2022.

RESULTS

Most patients lost no significant weight or gained weight. Increased engagement with MOVE! was associated with greater hazard of significant weight loss compared to no engagement.

CONCLUSION

A minority of patients experienced significant weight loss through 5 years using lifestyle interventions alone.

GALILEO: Galactic Axion Laser Interferometer Leveraging Electro-Optics

We propose a novel experimental method for probing light dark matter candidates. We show that an electro-optical material's refractive index is modified in the presence of a coherently oscillating dark matter background. A high-precision resonant Michelson interferometer can be used to read out this signal. The proposed detection scheme allows for the exploration of an uncharted parameter space of dark matter candidates over a wide range of masses-including masses exceeding a few tens of microelectronvolts, which is a challenging parameter space for microwave cavity haloscopes.

A Clinical Prediction Model to Assess Risk for Pancreatic Cancer Among Patients With Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model as the first step in a sequential screening strategy to identify acute pancreatitis (AP) individuals at risk for pancreatic cancer (PC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study among individuals 40 years or older with a hospitalization for AP in the US Veterans Health Administration. For variable selection, we used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression with 10-fold cross-validation to identify a parsimonious logistic regression model for predicting the outcome, PC diagnosed within 2 years after AP. We evaluated model discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

Among 51,613 eligible study patients with AP, 801 individuals were diagnosed with PC within 2 years. The final model (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.73) included histories of gallstones, pancreatic cyst, alcohol use, smoking, and levels of bilirubin, triglycerides, alkaline phosphatase, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and albumin. If the predicted risk threshold was set at 2% over 2 years, 20.3% of the AP population would undergo definitive screening, identifying nearly 50% of PC associated with AP.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a prediction model using widely available clinical factors to identify high-risk patients with PC-associated AP, the first step in a sequential screening strategy.

The Association Between Homelessness and Key Liver-Related Outcomes in Veterans With Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Homelessness adversely affects patient outcomes in broad cohort studies; however, its impact on key liver-related outcomes in patients with cirrhosis is understudied. We aimed to address this knowledge gap using data from the Veterans Health Administration, a cohort disproportionately affected by homelessness.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of the Veterans Health Administration patients with incident cirrhosis diagnosis between January 2008 and February 2022. Homeless status was classified at baseline and as time-updating variable during follow-up. Inverse probability treatment weighted Cox regression was performed to evaluate the association between homelessness and outcomes of all-cause mortality, cirrhosis decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma.

RESULTS

A total of 117,698 patients were included in the cohort, of whom 14,243 (12.1%) were homeless at baseline. In inverse probability treatment weighted Cox regression, homelessness was associated with a 24% higher hazard of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-1.26, P < 0.001). However, in competing risk regression models, homelessness was associated with a reduced subhazard of decompensation (subhazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.84-0.88, P < 0.001) and hepatocellular carcinoma (subhazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.83-0.89, P < 0.001). In cause-specific mortality analysis, homeless patients had significantly increased non-liver-related and liver-related mortality; however, the magnitude of effect size was greater for non-liver-related mortality (csHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.35-1.40, P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

Homelessness in veterans with cirrhosis is associated with increased all-cause mortality; however, this is likely mediated primarily through non-liver-related factors. Future studies are needed to explore drivers of mortality and improve mitigation strategies in these patients.

A missense variant in human perilipin 2 (PLIN2 Ser251Pro) reduces hepatic steatosis in mice

Background & Aims

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is characterised by the accumulation of lipid droplets (LDs) within hepatocytes. Perilipin 2 (PLIN2) is the most abundant protein in hepatic LDs and its expression correlates with intracellular lipid accumulation. A recently discovered PLIN2 coding variant, Ser251Pro (rs35568725), was found to promote the accumulation of small LDs in embryonic kidney cells. In this study, we investigate the role of PLIN2-Ser251Pro (PLIN2-Pro251) on hepatic LD metabolism in vivo and research the metabolic phenotypes associated with this variant in humans.

Methods

For our animal model, we used Plin2 knockout mice in which we expressed either human PLIN2-Pro251 (Pro251 mice) or wild-type human PLIN2-Ser251 (Ser251 mice) in a hepatocyte-specific manner. We fed both cohorts a lipogenic high-fat, high-cholesterol, high-fructose diet for 12 weeks.

Results

Pro251 mice were associated with reduced liver triglycerides (TGs) and had lower mRNA expression of fatty acid synthase and diacylglycerol O-acyltransferase-2 compared with Ser251 mice. Moreover, Pro251 mice had a reduction of polyunsaturated fatty acids-TGs and reduced expression of epoxygenase genes. For our human study, we analysed the Penn Medicine BioBank, the Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. Across these databases, the minor allele frequency of PLIN2-Pro251 was approximately 5%. There was no association with the clinical diagnosis of NAFLD, however, there was a trend toward reduced liver fat in PLIN2-Pro251 carriers by MRI-spectroscopy in UK Biobank subjects.

Conclusions

In mice lacking endogenous Plin2, expression of human PLIN2-Pro251 attenuated high-fat, high-fructose, high-cholesterol, diet-induced hepatic steatosis compared with human wild-type PLIN2-Ser251. Moreover, Pro251 mice had lower polyunsaturated fatty acids-TGs and epoxygenase genes expression, suggesting less liver oxidative stress. In humans, PLIN2-Pro251 is not associated with NAFLD.

Impact and Implications

Lipid droplet accumulation in hepatocytes is the distinctive characteristic of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Perilipin 2 (PLIN2) is the most abundant protein in hepatic lipid droplets; however, little is known on the role of a specific polymorphism PLIN2-Pro251 on hepatic lipid droplet metabolism. PLIN2-Pro251 attenuates liver triglycerides accumulation after a high-fat-high-glucose-diet. PLIN2-Pro251 may be a novel lipid droplet protein target for the treatment of liver steatosis.

HCC is associated with diabetes and longitudinal blood glucose control in a national cohort with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is associated with HCC; however, the impact of longitudinal blood glucose (BG) control on HCC risk in cirrhosis is not well known. We investigated this knowledge gap in a cohort of United States Veterans with cirrhosis from 2015 to 2021.

METHODS

We used repeated hemoglobin A1c measurements to categorize follow-up time according to BG control (defined as hemoglobin A1c < 7%) state over time: uncontrolled, nonsustained control (≤2 y), or sustained control (>2 y). We performed a sensitivity analysis using hemoglobin A1c < 8% to define BG control. We used Fine and Gray Cox proportional hazards regression with death and transplant as competing events to compare rates of incident HCC.

RESULTS

Our study included 81,907 individuals, 56.2% of whom had diabetes at baseline. There were 8,002 incident HCCs. The rate of HCC was 18% higher in diabetes (95% CI: 13% - 24%), and the relative increase in the rate of HCC varied by etiology of cirrhosis from nonsignificant (HCV) to an increase of 120% (HBV). Uncontrolled and nonsustained BG control was associated with 1.80 (95% CI: 1.70-1.91) and 2.34 (95% CI: 2.21-2.48) times the rate of HCC compared to sustained BG control, respectively. Using Hgb A1c < 8% to define BG control, HCC rates in uncontrolled and nonsustained BG control were 2.43 (2.28-2.58) and 2.23 (2.11-2.36) times that observed in sustained BG control.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between diabetes and HCC in cirrhosis vary according to the longitudinal BG control state. Inadequate BG control is consistently associated with a higher risk of HCC, and long-term BG control should be considered in comprehensive cirrhosis care.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Abnormal Liver Function Tests

Liver function tests are commonly obtained in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Various overlapping lab patterns can be seen due to derangement of hepatocytes and bile ducts function. Imaging tests are pursued to identify underlying etiology and guide management based on the lab results. Liver function tests may reveal mild, moderate, or severe hepatocellular predominance and can be seen in alcoholic and nonalcoholic liver disease, acute hepatitis, and acute liver injury due to other causes. Cholestatic pattern with elevated alkaline phosphatase with or without elevated γ-glutamyl transpeptidase can be seen with various causes of obstructive biliopathy. Acute or subacute cholestasis with conjugated or unconjugated hyperbilirubinemia can be seen due to prehepatic, intrahepatic, or posthepatic causes. We discuss the initial and complementary imaging modalities to be used in clinical scenarios presenting with abnormal liver function tests. The American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision process support the systematic analysis of the medical literature from peer reviewed journals. Established methodology principles such as Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE are adapted to evaluate the evidence. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method User Manual provides the methodology to determine the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances where peer reviewed literature is lacking or equivocal, experts may be the primary evidentiary source available to formulate a recommendation.

Antibiotic Exposure is Associated With a Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Antibiotic exposure leads to changes in the gut microbiota. Our objective was to evaluate the association between antibiotic exposure and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) risk.

METHODS

We performed a nested case-control study using data from the Veterans Health Administration from 2004 through 2020. The case group consisted of patients who received an incident diagnosis of EAC. For each case, up to 20 matched controls were selected using incidence density sampling. Our primary exposure of interest was any oral or intravenous antibiotic use. Our secondary exposures included cumulative number of days of exposure and classification of antibiotics by various subgroups. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the crude and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for the risk of EAC associated with antibiotic exposure.

RESULTS

The case-control analysis included 8226 EAC cases and 140,670 matched controls. Exposure to any antibiotic was associated with an aOR for EAC of 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65-1.83) vs no antibiotic exposure. Compared with no antibiotic exposure, the aOR for EAC was 1.63 (95% CI, 1.52-1.74; P < .001) for cumulative exposure to any antibiotic for 1 to 15 days; 1.77 (95% CI, 1.65-1.89; P < 0 .001) for 16 to 47 days; and 1.87 (95% CI, 1.75-2.01; P < .001) for ≥48 days, respectively (P for trend < .001).

CONCLUSION

Exposure to any antibiotic is associated with an increased risk of EAC, and this risk increases as the cumulative days of exposure increase. This novel finding is hypothesis-generating for potential mechanisms that may play a role in the development or progression of EAC.

Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Spontaneous Clearance of Hepatitis C Virus and in Noncirrhosis Chronic Hepatitis C Patients With Sustained Virological Response: A Systematic Review

In a hepatitis C virus (HCV)-controlled human infection model (CHIM), healthy volunteers are inoculated with HCV and then treated. Residual hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after viral clearance is an important consideration when evaluating the CHIM. We estimate HCC risk in spontaneously cleared HCV and in noncirrhosis after sustained virological response (SVR) to HCV treatment in a systematic review and using data from 3 cohorts: German anti-D, Taiwan, and US Veterans Affairs (VA). For noncirrhosis SVR, the overall HCC rate is 0.33 per 100 patient-years in meta-analysis. HCC rates for the German, Taiwan, and US Veterans Affairs cohorts are 0, 0.14, and 0.02 per 100 patient-years, respectively. Past hepatitis B virus exposure was not accounted for in the Taiwan cohort, while VA patients were likely tested based on liver disease/risk factors, which may confound HCC outcomes. The German cohort with no HCC after 44 years is most comparable to the CHIM participants. Although it is difficult to precisely estimate HCC risk from an HCV CHIM, the data suggest the risk to be very low or negligible.

Induction Immunosuppression Does Not Worsen Tumor Recurrence After Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Prior studies are inconsistent regarding the impact of antibody induction therapy on outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Adults transplanted with HCC exception priority were identified from February 27, 2002, to March 31, 2019, using the United Network for Organ Sharing database. Time-to-event analyses evaluated the association of antibody induction therapy (none, nondepleting induction [NDI], depleting induction [DI]) with overall post-LT patient survival and HCC recurrence. Separate multivariable models adjusted for tumor characteristics on either last exception or on explant. The interaction of induction and maintenance regimen at LT discharge was investigated.

RESULTS

Among 22 535 LTs for HCC, 17 688 (78.48%) received no antibody induction, 2984 (13.24%) NDI, and 1863 (8.27%) DI. Minimal differences in patient and tumor characteristics were noted between induction groups, and there was significant center variability in practices. NDI was associated with improved survival, particularly when combined with a calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) and antimetabolite (hazard ratio [HR] 0.73 versus no induction plus 3-drug therapy in the last exception model [ P  < 0.001]; HR 0.64 in the explant model [ P  = 0.011]). The combination of DI with CNI alone was also protective (HR 0.43; P  = 0.003). Neither NDI nor DI was associated with tumor recurrence (all P  > 0.1). However, increased HCC recurrence was observed with no induction plus CNI monotherapy (HR 1.47, P  = 0.019; versus no induction plus 3-drug therapy).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, induction immunosuppression was not associated with worse post-LT outcomes in patients transplanted with HCC exception priority. An improvement in survival was possibly observed with NDI.

Multidisciplinary teams, efficient communication, procedure services, and telehealth improve cirrhosis care: A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis care and outcomes are improved with access to subspecialty gastroenterology and hepatology care. In qualitative interviews, we investigated clinicians' perceptions of factors that optimize or impede cirrhosis care.

METHODS

We conducted 24 telephone interviews with subspecialty clinicians at 7 Veterans Affairs medical centers with high- and low-complexity services. Purposive sampling stratified Veterans Affairs medical centers on timely post-hospitalization follow-up, a quality measure. We asked open-ended questions about facilitators and barriers of care coordination, access to appointments, procedures, transplantation, management of complications, keeping up to date with medical knowledge, and telehealth use.

RESULTS

Key themes that facilitated care were structural: multidisciplinary teams, clinical dashboards, mechanisms for appointment tracking and reminders, and local or virtual access to transplant and liver cancer specialists through the "specialty care access network extension for community health care outcomes" program. Coordination and efficient communication between transplant and non-transplant specialists and between transplant and primary care facilitated timely care. Same-day access to laboratory, procedural, and clinical services is an indicator of high-quality care. Barriers included lack of on-site procedural services, clinician turnover, patient social needs related to transportation, costs, and patient forgetfulness due to HE. Telehealth enabled lower complexity sites to obtain recommendations for complex patient cases. Barriers to telehealth included lack of credit (eg, VA billing equivalent), inadequate staff, lack of audiovisual technology support, and patient and staff discomfort with technology. Telehealth was optimal for return visits, cases where physical examination was nonessential, and where distance and transportation precluded in-person care. Rapid telehealth uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic was a positive disruptor and facilitated use.

CONCLUSIONS

We identify multi-level factors related to structure, staffing, technology, and care organization to optimize cirrhosis care delivery.

Using Telemedicine to Facilitate Patient Communication and Treatment Decision-Making Following Multidisciplinary Tumor Board Review for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A rapid increase in the use of telemedicine for delivering healthcare has occurred since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. There is evidence for using telemedicine to facilitate cancer care delivery for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Examining how telemedicine can be used to communicate multidisciplinary tumor board (MTB) recommendations for HCC has not been studied. This study has two specific aims: (1) to evaluate the patient perspective of the MTB review process and identify best strategies for communicating treatment recommendations for HCC and (2) to pilot test a telemedicine intervention following MTB review to assess patient feasibility and satisfaction with using telemedicine to facilitate treatment decision-making and treatment referral.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study. First, semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted among patients diagnosed with HCC who were discussed in MTB review at one of three VA Medical Centers (VAMC). We collected information about the MTB process from the patient perspective and identified strategies for improving communication and delivery of care. Rapid qualitative analysis was used to inform intervention development. Using our qualitative data, a MTB telemedicine pilot intervention was developed and implemented to assess the feasibility of using this approach for patients with HCC.

RESULTS

Almost all patients (94%) in the pilot study would recommend telemedicine to other patients with HCC, and half of the patients (50%) preferred telemedicine over in-person visits. Many patients (81%) found communication through telemedicine an acceptable platform to deliver difficult cancer information. Overall, patients felt they understood their treatment recommendations and found them clear and useful. Further, patients reported that they enjoyed being included in the decision-making process and appreciated being able to have family members easily join them for the telemedicine visit.

CONCLUSIONS

Using telemedicine to communicate treatment recommendations following MTB review was found to be feasible and an acceptable alternative to an in-person visit for patient with HCC. Future studies could include expanding this approach for communicating MTB recommendations to patients with other types of cancers.

Association between statin exposure and short-term mortality in patients with high-grade acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality for patients with cirrhosis. Prior literature suggests that statin exposure may reduce the likelihood of ACLF events. However, it is unclear if statin exposure is associated with ACLF-related mortality. This study sought to determine the association between statin use and short-term mortality among patients hospitalised with ACLF.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between 2008 and 2021 and hospitalised with high-grade (2 or 3) ACLF. Patients were stratified into those with and without continuous statin exposure for at least 90 days prior to hospitalisation. Multivariable logistic regression models were created to determine the adjusted association between statin exposure and 28-day and 90-day mortality. Categorical statin dose exposure, converted to simvastatin equivalents, was also explored.

Results

A total of 11,731 patients with cirrhosis hospitalised with Grade 2 or 3 ACLF were included in the analytic cohort, 26% of whom had statin exposure. In adjusted logistic regression models, statin use was associated with 18% lower odds of ACLF-related 28-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0.93, p = 0.001) and 24% lower odds of 90-day mortality (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68-0.86, p <0.001). Increasing statin dose exposure was also associated with further reductions in 90-day mortality (e.g. OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.70-0.93 for 10-40 mg vs. 0 mg and OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.60-0.87 for 80 mg vs. 0 mg, p <0.001).

Conclusions

In this large, retrospective cohort study, statin exposure before high-grade ACLF hospitalisation was associated with reduced odds of 28-day and 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis. A statin dose-dependent reduction in 90-day ACLF-related mortality was also observed.

Impact and Implications

Statins have been identified as a class of medications with potential beneficial effects for patients with cirrhosis. In this large, retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who seek care at the Veterans Health Administration, statin use was associated with a decrease in short term (28-day and 90-day) mortality as a result of acute-on-chronic liver failure. Future prospective studies are needed to further clarify the relative safety and efficacy of statin therapy in reducing morbidity and mortality associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis.

Test of Causal Nonlinear Quantum Mechanics by Ramsey Interferometry with a Trapped Ion

Quantum mechanics requires the time evolution of the wave function to be linear. While this feature has been associated with the preservation of causality, a consistent causal nonlinear theory was recently developed. Interestingly, this theory is unavoidably sensitive to the full physical spread of the wave function, rendering existing experimental tests for nonlinearities inapplicable. Here, using well-controlled motional superpositions of a trapped ion, we set a stringent limit of 5.4×10^{-12} on the magnitude of the unitless scaling factor ε[over ˜]_{γ} for the predicted causal nonlinear perturbation.

Ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infection and reduced severity of COVID-19 in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Studies have demonstrated that reducing farnesoid X receptor activity with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) downregulates angiotensin-converting enzyme in human lung, intestinal and cholangiocytes organoids in vitro, in human lungs and livers perfused ex situ, reducing internalization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into the host cell. This offers a potential novel target against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The objective of our study was to compare the association between UDCA exposure and SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as varying severities of COVID-19, in a large national cohort of participants with cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study among participants with cirrhosis in the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver cohort, we compared participants with exposure to UDCA, with a propensity score (PS) matched group of participants without UDCA exposure, matched for clinical characteristics, and vaccination status. The outcomes included SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic, at least moderate, severe, or critical COVID-19, and COVID-19-related death.

RESULTS

We compared 1607 participants with cirrhosis who were on UDCA, with 1607 PS-matched controls. On multivariable logistic regression, UDCA exposure was associated with reduced odds of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-0.71, p < 0.0001). Among patients who developed COVID-19, UDCA use was associated with reduced disease severity, including symptomatic COVID-19 (aOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.73, p < 0.0001), at least moderate COVID-19 (aOR 0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.81, p = 0.005), and severe or critical COVID-19 (aOR 0.48, 95% CI 0.25-0.94, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with cirrhosis, UDCA exposure was associated with both a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infection, and reduction in symptomatic, at least moderate, and severe/critical COVID-19.

The association between mental illness and all-cause mortality in patients with cirrhosis: a Veterans Affairs retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mental health diagnoses are common and known to impact key outcomes in patients with chronic illnesses including cirrhosis. However, the independent impact of psychiatric comorbidities on mortality in these patients and potential mitigating effects of outpatient mental health-related care has not been well characterized.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration between 2008 and 2021. Adjusted Cox regression was performed to evaluate the association between mental health-related diagnoses [groups: alcohol use disorder (AUD)/substance use disorder (SUD) alone, non-AUD/SUD alone, and any mental health diagnosis (AUD/SUD or non-AUD/SUD)] and all-cause mortality. In subgroup analyses, the impact of regular outpatient mental health visits was also assessed.

RESULTS

We identified 115,409 patients, 81.7% of whom had any mental health diagnosis at baseline. During the study window there was a significant increase in the number of mental health clinic visits per person-year (β=0.078, 95% CI: 0.065-0.092, p < 0.001), but a decrease in AUD/SUD clinic utilization (p < 0.001). In regression models, there was a 54% increased hazard in all-cause mortality for any mental health diagnosis, 11% for non-AUD/SUD, and 44% for AUD/SUD (each p < 0.001). Regular mental health visits resulted in a 21% decreased risk in all-cause mortality for AUD/SUD diagnosis, compared with 3% and 9% for any mental health diagnosis and non-AUD/SUD diagnosis, respectively (each p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Mental illness is associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in veterans with cirrhosis. Regular outpatient mental health care may be protective against all-cause mortality, particularly among patients with AUD/SUD. Future studies should focus on relevant clinical practice changes, including implementing integrated care programs.

Medications for alcohol use disorder improve survival in patients with hazardous drinking and alcohol-associated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Medications for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) are highly effective in achieving and maintaining abstinence in patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD). Our aim was to evaluate the effect of MAUD on all-cause mortality in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and active alcohol use.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and high-risk alcohol use disorder in the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) database. Propensity score matching for exposure to MAUD (acamprosate or naltrexone) within a year after cirrhosis diagnosis was performed to account for potential confounders, and the association between MAUD and all-cause mortality was subsequently evaluated using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 9131 patients were included, of whom 886 (9.7%) were exposed to MAUD (naltrexone: 520, acamprosate: 307, both medications: 59). The duration of MAUD exposure was >3 months in 345 patients (39%). The strongest positive predictor of MAUD prescription was an inpatient diagnosis code for AUD, followed by a concurrent diagnosis of depression; the strongest negative predictor was a history of cirrhosis decompensation. After propensity score matching (866 patients in each group) with excellent covariate balance (absolute standardized mean differences <0.1), MAUD exposure was associated with improved survival, with an HR of 0.80 relative to no MAUD exposure (95% CI: 0.67-0.97, p = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

MAUD are underutilized in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis with high-risk alcohol use behavior but are associated with improved survival after adjustment for confounders such as the severity of liver disease, age, and engagement in the healthcare system.

Type of Infection Is Associated with Prognosis in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A National Veterans Health Administration Study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome in patients with cirrhosis with high short-term mortality. Infection is a frequent precipitant of ACLF; however, it is unclear if prognosis varies by difference infectious sources. To address this knowledge gap, we utilized a large national database of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration between 2008 and 2016. First ACLF hospitalizations were identified and infections were classified using validated algorithms, categorized as bacteremia, fungal, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), pyelonephritis/urinary tract infection, or skin and soft tissue/musculoskeletal infection (SST/MSK). Inverse probability treatment weighing for infection-associated ACLF followed by multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between infection type and 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total 22,589 ACLF hospitalizations were included, 3998 (17.7%) of which had ACLF grade 3. Infection was associated with 12,405 (54.9%) of ACLF hospitalizations. In regression models, SBP was associated with a 1.79-fold increased odds of 90-day mortality vs. no infection (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.58-2.02, p < 0.001), whereas SST/MSK infections had a lower relative odds of mortality (odds ratio 0.48, 95% CI 0.42-0.53, p < 0.001). There was a significant interaction between infection category and ACLF grade on the outcome of 90-day mortality (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of infection on short-term mortality in ACLF varies depending on the source of infection. This has relevance for ACLF prognostication and challenges previous notions that bacterial infection invariably worsens prognosis among all patients with ACLF.

Association Between Bariatric Surgery and Alcohol Use-Related Hospitalization and All-Cause Mortality in a Veterans Affairs Cohort

Importance

Bariatric surgery procedures, in particular Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), have been associated with subsequent alcohol-related complications. However, previous studies lack data to account for changes in body mass index (BMI) or alcohol use over time, which are key potential confounders.

Objective

To evaluate the association between RYGB, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric banding on subsequent alcohol use disorder (AUD)-related hospitalization and all-cause mortality as compared with referral to a weight management program alone.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included 127 Veterans Health Administration health centers in the US. Patients who underwent RYGB, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric banding or who were referred to MOVE!, a weight management program, and had a BMI (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) of 30 or greater between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2021, were included in the study.

Exposures

RYGB, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric banding or referral to the MOVE! program.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was time to AUD-related hospitalization from the time of bariatric surgery or MOVE! referral. The secondary outcome was time to all-cause mortality. Separate propensity scores were created for each pairwise comparison (RYGB vs MOVE! program, RYGB vs sleeve gastrectomy, sleeve gastrectomy vs MOVE!). Sequential Cox regression approaches were used for each pairwise comparison to estimate the relative hazard of the primary outcome in unadjusted, inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW)-adjusted (generated from the pairwise logistic regression models), and IPTW-adjusted approaches with additional adjustment for time-updating BMI and categorical Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Concise scores.

Results

A total of 1854 patients received RYGB (median [IQR] age, 53 [45-60] years; 1294 men [69.8%]), 4211 received sleeve gastrectomy (median [IQR] age, 52 [44-59] years; 2817 men [66.9%]), 265 received gastric banding (median [IQR] age, 55 [46-61] years; 199 men [75.1%]), and 1364 were referred to MOVE! (median [IQR] age, 59 [49-66] years; 1175 men [86.1%]). In IPTW Cox regression analyses accounting for time-updating alcohol use and BMI, RYGB was associated with an increased hazard of AUD-related hospitalization vs MOVE! (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.20-2.41; P = .003) and vs sleeve gastrectomy (HR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.55-2.53; P < .001). There was no significant difference between sleeve gastrectomy and MOVE! (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.56-1.03; P = .08). While RYGB was associated with a reduced mortality risk vs MOVE! (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.49-0.81; P < .001), this association was mitigated by increasing alcohol use over time.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that RYGB was associated with an increased risk of AUD-related hospitalizations vs both sleeve gastrectomy and the MOVE! program. The mortality benefit associated with RYGB was diminished by increased alcohol use, highlighting the importance of careful patient selection and alcohol-related counseling for patients undergoing this procedure.

Patterns of Care Utilization and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: Tracking Care Across the Pandemic

INTRODUCTION

We studied longitudinal trends in mortality, outpatient, and inpatient care for cirrhosis in a national cohort in the first 2 years of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic. We evaluated trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance and factors associated with completion.

METHODS

Within the national cirrhosis cohort in the Veterans Administration from 2020 to 2021, we captured mortality, outpatient primary care provider, gastroenterology/hepatology (GI/HEP) visits, and hospitalizations. HCC surveillance was computed as percentage of time up to date with surveillance every 6 months (PTUDS). Multivariable models for PTUDS were adjusted for patient demographics, clinical factors, and facility-level variables.

RESULTS

The total cohort was 68,073; 28,678 were eligible for HCC surveillance. Outpatient primary care provider and GI/HEP appointment rates initially dropped from 30% to 7% with a rebound 1 year into the pandemic and steady subsequent use. Telemedicine monthly visit rates rose from less than 10% to a peak of 20% with a steady gradual decline. Nearly 70% of Veterans were up to date with HCC surveillance before the pandemic with an early pandemic nadir of approximately 50% and 60% PTUDS 2 years into the pandemic. In adjusted models, use of a population-based cirrhosis dashboard (β 8.5, 95% CI 6.9-10.2) and GI/HEP visits both in-person (β 3.2, 95% CI 2.9-3.6) and telemedicine (β 2.1, 95% CI 1.9-2.4) were associated with a higher PTUDS.

DISCUSSION

Outpatient utilization and HCC surveillance rates have rebounded but remain below at baseline. Population-based approaches and specialty care for cirrhosis were associated with a higher completion of HCC surveillance.

Nonselective beta blockers, hepatic decompensation, and mortality in cirrhosis: A national cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about the effectiveness of nonselective beta blockers (NSBBs) in preventing hepatic decompensation in routine clinical settings. We investigated whether NSBBs are associated with hepatic decompensation or liver-related mortality in a national cohort of veterans with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) A cirrhosis with no prior decompensations.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In an active comparator, new user (ACNU) design, we created a cohort of new users of carvedilol ( n = 123) versus new users of selective beta blockers (SBBs) ( n = 561) and followed patients for up to 3 years. An inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) approach balanced demographic and clinical confounders. The primary analysis simulated intention-to-treat ("pseudo-ITT") with IPTW-adjusted Cox models; secondary analyses were pseudo-as-treated, and both were adjusted for baseline and time-updating drug confounders. Subgroup analyses evaluated NSBB effects by HCV viremia status, CTP class, platelet count, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) etiology, and age. In pseudo-ITT analyses of carvedilol versus SBBs, carvedilol was associated with a lower hazard of any hepatic decompensation (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.42-0.83) and the composite outcome of hepatic decompensation/liver-related mortality (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41-0.76). Results were similar in pseudo-as-treated analyses (hepatic decompensation: HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.33-0.94; composite outcome: HR 0.62, 95% 0.38-1.01). In subgroup analyses, carvedilol was associated with lower hazard of primary outcomes in the absence of HCV viremia, higher CTP class and platelet count, younger age, and ALD etiology.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an ongoing need to noninvasively identify patients who may benefit from NSBBs for the prevention of hepatic decompensation.

Experimental Limit on Nonlinear State-Dependent Terms in Quantum Theory

Linear time evolution is one of the fundamental postulates of quantum theory. Past theoretical attempts to introduce nonlinearity into quantum evolution have violated causality. However, a recent theory has introduced nonlinear state-dependent terms in quantum field theory, preserving causality [D. E. Kaplan and S. Rajendran, Phys. Rev. D 105, 055002 (2022)PRVDAQ2470-001010.1103/PhysRevD.105.055002]. We report the results of an experiment that searches for such terms. Our approach, inspired by the Everett many-worlds interpretation of quantum theory, correlates a binary macroscopic classical voltage with the outcome of a projective measurement of a quantum bit, prepared in a coherent superposition state. Measurement results are recorded in a bit string, which is used to control a voltage switch. Presence of a nonzero voltage reading in cases of no applied voltage is the experimental signature of a nonlinear state-dependent shift of the electromagnetic field operator. We implement blinded measurement and data analysis with three control bit strings. Control of systematic effects is realized by producing one of the control bit strings with a classical random-bit generator. The other two bit strings are generated by measurements performed on a superconducting qubit in an IBM Quantum processor and on a ^{15}N nuclear spin in a nitrogen-vacancy center in diamond. Our measurements find no evidence for electromagnetic quantum state-dependent nonlinearity. We set a bound on the parameter that quantifies this nonlinearity |ε_{γ}|<4.7×10^{-11}, at 90% confidence level.

Performance of risk prediction models for post-operative mortality in patients undergoing liver resection

BACKGROUND

Liver resection is commonly performed for hepatic tumors, however preoperative risk stratification remains challenging. We evaluated the performance of contemporary prediction models for short-term mortality after liver resection in patients with and without cirrhosis.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data. We included patients who underwent liver resections from 2014 to 2019. VOCAL-Penn, MELD, MELD-Na, ALBI, and Mayo risk scores were evaluated in terms of model discrimination and calibration for 30-day post-operative mortality.

RESULTS

A total 15,198 patients underwent liver resection, of whom 249 (1.6%) experienced 30-day post-operative mortality. The VOCAL-Penn score had the highest discrimination (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.74) compared to all other models. The VOCAL-Penn score similarly outperformed other models in patients with (AUC 0.70) and without (AUC 0.74) cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The VOCAL-Penn score demonstrated superior predictive performance for 30-day post-operative mortality after liver resection as compared to existing clinical standards.

Comparison of infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 can be infection or vaccine-induced. Cirrhosis is associated with vaccine hyporesponsiveness, but whether there is decreased immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated patients with cirrhosis is unknown.The objective of our study was to compare infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 among patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study among US Veterans with cirrhosis between November 27, 2020, and November 16, 2021, comparing a vaccine-induced immunity group, defined as participants without a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection but fully vaccinated with two doses of an mRNA vaccine, and infection-associated immunity group, defined as unvaccinated participants who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Both groups were propensity score matched for observed characteristics, including location, and the date of the immunity acquiring event, to control for the community prevalence of COVID-19 variants. The outcome was a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR more than 60 days after previous infection in the infection-induced, or after full vaccination in the vaccine-induced immunity group.

RESULTS

We compared 634 participants in the infection-induced immunity group with 27,131 participants in the vaccine-induced immunity group using inverse propensity of treatment weighting. Vaccine-induced immunity was associated with a reduced odds of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16-0.20, p < 0.0001). On multivariable logistic regression, vaccine-induced immunity was associated with reduced odds of developing symptomatic (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.36; 95% CI, 0.33-0.41, p < 0.0001), moderate/severe/critical (aOR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.22-0.31, p < 0.0001), and severe or critical COVID-19 (aOR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.16-0.26, p < 0.001), compared with infection-induced immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with cirrhosis, vaccine-induced immunity is associated with reduced risk of developing COVID-19, compared with infection-induced immunity.

Circulating messenger RNA variants as a potential biomarker for surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma

Background and rationale

Liver derived messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) transcripts were reported to be elevated in the circulation of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. We now report the detection of high-risk mRNA variants exclusively in the circulation of HCC patients. Numerous genomic alleles such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), nucleotide insertions and deletions (called Indels), splicing variants in many genes, have been associated with elevated risk of cancer. Our findings potentially offer a novel non-invasive platform for HCC surveillance and early detection.

Approach

RNAseq analysis was carried out in the plasma of 14 individuals with a diagnosis of HCC, 8 with LC and no HCC, and 6 with no liver disease diagnosis. RNA from 6 matching tumors and 5 circulating extracellular vesicle (EV) samples from 14 of those with HCC was also analyzed. Specimens from two cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) patients were also included in our study. HCC specific SNPs and Indels referred as "variants" were identified using GATK HaplotypeCaller and annotated by SnpEff to filter out high risk variants.

Results

The variant calling on all RNA samples enabled the detection of 5.2 million SNPs, 0.91 million insertions and 0.81 million deletions. RNAseq analyses in tumors, normal liver tissue, plasma, and plasma derived EVs led to the detection of 5480 high-risk tumor specific mRNA variants in the circulation of HCC patients. These variants are concurrently detected in tumors and plasma samples or tumors and EVs from HCC patients, but none of these were detected in normal liver, plasma of LC patients or normal healthy individuals. Our results demonstrate selective detection of concordant high-risk HCC-specific mRNA variants in free plasma, plasma derived EVs and tumors of HCC patients. The variants comprise of splicing, frameshift, fusion and single nucleotide alterations and correspond to cancer and tumor metabolism pathways. Detection of these high-risk variants in matching specimens from same subjects with an enrichment in circulating EVs is remarkable. Validation of these HCC selective ctmRNA variants in larger patient cohorts is likely to identify a predictive set of ctmRNA with high diagnostic performance and thus offer a novel non-invasive serology-based biomarker for HCC.

Development and validation of case-finding algorithms to identify acute pancreatitis in the Veterans Health Administration

PURPOSE

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a frequently encountered adverse drug reaction. However, the validity of diagnostic codes for AP is unknown. We aimed to determine the positive predictive value (PPV) of a diagnostic code-based algorithm for identifying patients with AP within the US Veterans Health Administration and evaluate the value of adding readily available structured laboratory information.

METHODS

We identified patients with possible AP events first based on the presence of a single hospital discharge ICD-9 or ICD-10 diagnosis of AP (Algorithm 1). We then expanded Algorithm 1 by including relevant laboratory test results (Algorithm 2). Specifically, we considered amylase or lipase serum values obtained between 2 days before admission and the end of the hospitalization. Medical records of a random sample of patients identified by the respective algorithms were reviewed by two separate gastroenterologists to adjudicate AP events. The PPV (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the algorithms were calculated.

RESULTS

Algorithm 2, consisting of one ICD-9 or ICD-10 hospital discharge diagnosis of AP and the addition of lipase serum value ≥200 U/L, had a PPV 89.1% (95% CI 83.0%-95.2%), improving from the PPV of algorithm 1 (57.9% [95% CI 46.8-69.0]).

CONCLUSIONS

An algorithm consisting of an ICD-9 or ICD-10 diagnosis of AP with a lipase value ≥200 U/L achieved high PPV. This simple algorithm can be readily implemented in any electronic health records (EHR) systems and could be useful for future pharmacoepidemiologic studies on AP.

Dark Solar Wind

We study the solar emission of light dark sector particles that self-interact strongly enough to self-thermalize. The resulting outflow behaves like a fluid which accelerates under its own thermal pressure to highly relativistic bulk velocities in the solar system. Compared to the ordinary noninteracting scenario, the local outflow has at least ∼10^{3} higher number density and correspondingly at least ∼10^{3} lower average energy per particle. We show how this generic phenomenon arises in a dark sector composed of millicharged particles strongly self-interacting via a dark photon. The millicharged plasma wind emerging in this model has novel yet predictive signatures that encourages new experimental directions. This phenomenon demonstrates how a small step away from the simplest models can lead to radically different outcomes and thus motivates a broader search for dark sector particles.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Management of Liver Cancer: 2022 Update

The treatment and management of hepatic malignancies can be complex because it encompasses a variety of primary and metastatic malignancies and an assortment of local and systemic treatment options. When to use each of these treatments is critical to ensure the most appropriate care for patients. Interventional radiologists have a key role to play in the delivery of a variety of liver directed treatments including percutaneous ablation, transarterial embolization with bland embolic particles alone, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) with injection of a chemotherapeutic emulsion, and transarterial radioembolization (TARE). Based on 9 clinical variants, the appropriateness of each treatment is described in this document. The ACR Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision process support the systematic analysis of the medical literature from peer reviewed journals. Established methodology principles such as Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE are adapted to evaluate the evidence. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method User Manual provides the methodology to determine the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances in which peer reviewed literature is lacking or equivocal, experts may be the primary evidentiary source available to formulate a recommendation.

Third dose of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine appears to overcome vaccine hyporesponsiveness in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Cirrhosis is associated with immune dysregulation and hyporesponsiveness to several vaccines including those against COVID-19. Our aim was to compare outcomes between patients with cirrhosis who received 3 doses of either the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA or Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccines to a propensity-matched control group of patients at similar risk of infection who received 2 doses.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who received 2 or 3 doses of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine at the Veterans Health Administration. Participants who received 3 doses of the vaccine (n = 13,041) were propensity score matched with 13,041 controls who received 2 doses, and studied between July 18, 2021 and February 11, 2022, when B.1.617.2 (delta) and B.1.1.529 (omicron) were the predominant variants. Outcomes were aggregated as all cases with COVID-19, symptomatic COVD-19, with at least moderate COVID-19, or severe or critical COVID-19.

RESULTS

Receipt of the third dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was associated with an 80.7% reduction in COVID-19 (95% CI 39.2-89.1, p <0.001), an 80.4% reduction in symptomatic COVID-19, an 80% reduction in moderate, severe or critical COVID-19, (95% CI 34.5-87.6%, p = 0.005), a 100% reduction in severe or critical COVID-19 (95% CI 99.2-100.0, p = 0.01), and a 100% reduction in COVID-19-related death (95% CI 99.8-100.0, p = 0.007). The magnitude of reduction in COVID-19 was greater with the third dose of BNT 162b2 than mRNA-1273 and among participants with compensated rather than decompensated cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Administration of a third dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was associated with a more significant reduction in COVID-19 in patients with cirrhosis than in the general population, suggesting that the third dose can overcome vaccine hyporesponsiveness in this population.

LAY SUMMARY

Cirrhosis is associated with decreased responsiveness to several vaccines, including those against COVID-19. In this study of 26,082 participants with cirrhosis during the delta and omicron surge, receipt of the third dose of the vaccine was associated with an 80% reduction in COVID-19, a 100% reduction in severe/critical COVID-19, and a 100% reduction in COVID-19-related death. These findings support the importance of a third dose of mRNA vaccine among patients with cirrhosis.

Cost-effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C virus in the United States from a payer perspective

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have been a breakthrough therapeutic innovation in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) with significantly improved efficacy, safety, and tolerability. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treating patients with HCV with DAAs compared with pre-DAAs or no treatment over a lifetime horizon from the perspective of the US Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. METHODS: A hybrid decision-tree and Markov model simulated the health outcomes of a cohort of 142,147 patients with HCV with an average age of 63 years. Demographic data, treatment rates and distribution, treatment efficacy by subpopulation, and health state costs were sourced from VA data. Treatment costs and utility values were sourced from publicly available databases and prior publications for older regimens. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon, the use of DAAs results in a significant reduction in advanced liver disease events compared with pre-DAA and no treatment. Total cost savings of $7 and $9 billion over a lifetime horizon (50 years) were predicted for patients who received DAA treatments compared with patients treated with pre-DAA treatments and those who were untreated, respectively. Cost savings were achieved quickly after treatment, with DAAs being inexpensive when compared with both the pre-DAA and untreated scenarios within 5 years. The DAA intervention dominated (ie, more effective and less costly) for both the pre-DAA and untreated strategies on both a per-patient and cohort basis. CONCLUSIONS: The use of DAA-based treatments in patients with HCV in the VA system significantly reduced long-term HCV-related morbidity and mortality, while providing cost savings within only 5 years of treatment. DISCLOSURES: This work was supported by Gilead Inc. Health Economic Outcomes Research group, grant number GS-US-18-HCV003. Drs Yehoshua and Kaushik are employees of Gilead in the Health Economic Outcome Research group. These individuals reviewed the manuscript but did not contribute to input or output of the Markov model. Maple Health Group (Dr El-Moustaid, Ms Raad, and Dr Smith) are consultants hired by Gilead for Markov modeling expertise. The model used in this study was previously published and peer reviewed. Data inputted into the model related to patient demographic, treatment outcomes, clinical outcomes, and costs were completely independent in derivation by Drs Kaplan, Serper, and Durkin and were not influenced by the funding sponsor. Dr Kaplan reports grants from Gilead Inc. during the conduct of the study and grants from Gilead Inc., other from Glycotest Inc., other from AstraZeneca, other from Exact Sciences, and other from Bayer outside the submitted work.

Impact of NAFLD on clinical outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib: an international cohort study

BACKGROUND

The impact of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on overall survival (OS), treatment response and toxicity in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib is unknown. We examined the impact of NAFLD on survival and toxicity in an international cohort of patients receiving sorafenib.

METHODS

Clinical and demographic data were collected from patients consecutively treated at specialist centres in Europe and North America. The impact of NAFLD on OS, sorafenib-specific survival and toxicity compared with other aetiologies of liver disease using multivariable Cox-proportional hazards and logistic regression modelling was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 5201 patients received sorafenib; 183 (3.6%) had NAFLD-associated HCC. NAFLD-associated HCC patients were more likely to be older women (median age 65.8 versus 63.0 years, p < 0.01 and 10.4% versus 2.3%, < 0.01), with a median body mass index (BMI) of 29.4. After controlling for known prognostic factors, no difference in OS in patients with or without NAFLD was observed [hazard ratio (HR): 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.84-1.18, p = 0.98]. NAFLD-associated patients had more advanced stage HCC when they commenced sorafenib [Barcelona Clinic Liver Class (BCLC) C/D 70.9% versus 58.9%, p < 0.01] and were more likely to be commenced on a lower starting dose of sorafenib (51.4 versus 36.4%, p < 0.01). There was no difference in sorafenib-specific survival between NAFLD and other aetiologies (HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.79-1.17, p = 0.96). Adverse events were similar between NAFLD and non-NAFLD HCC groups, including rates of greater than grade 2 hypertension (6.3% versus 5.8%, p = 1.00).

CONCLUSION

Survival in HCC does not appear to be influenced by the presence of NAFLD. NAFLD-associated HCC derive similar clinical benefit from sorafenib compared with other aetiologies.

Modeling Optimal Clinical Thresholds for Elective Abdominal Hernia Repair in Patients With Cirrhosis

IMPORTANCE

Patients with cirrhosis have increased risk of postoperative mortality. Several models have been developed to estimate this risk; however, current risk estimation scores cannot compare surgical risk with the risk of not operating.

OBJECTIVE

To identify clinical optimal thresholds to favor operative or nonoperative management for a common cirrhosis surgical scenario, the symptomatic abdominal hernia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a Markov cohort decision analytical modeling study evaluating elective surgery vs nonoperative management for a symptomatic abdominal hernia in a patient with cirrhosis. Transition probabilities and utilities were derived from the literature and from data using an established cirrhosis cohort in the Veterans Health Administration. Participants included patients who were referred to a surgery clinic for a symptomatic abdominal hernia. Data were obtained from patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from January 1 to May 1, 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Expected quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated for each pathway and iterated over baseline model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) scores ranging from 6 to 25. Markov models were cycled over a 5-year time horizon.

RESULTS

A total 2740 patients with cirrhosis (median [IQR] age, 62 [56-66] years; 2699 [98.5%] men) were referred to a surgery clinic for a symptomatic abdominal hernia; 1752 patients (63.9%) did not receive surgery. The median (IQR) follow-up was 42.1 (25.3-70.0) months. Using this cohort to estimate the mortality risk of operative and nonoperative pathways, an initial MELD-Na threshold of 21.3 points, below which surgery was associated with maximized QALYs was identified. Nonoperative management was associated with increased QALYs above this MELD-Na threshold. Although more patients experienced death with a surgical treatment decision across all initial MELD-Na values, this was counterbalanced by increased time spent in a resolved hernia state associated with increased utility. Model results were sensitive to the probability of hernia recurrence and hernia incarceration and utility decrement in the symptomatic hernia state.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This decision analytical model study found that elective surgical treatment for a symptomatic abdominal hernia was favored even in the setting of relatively high MELD-Na scores. Patient symptoms, hernia-specific characteristics, and surgeon and center expertise may potentially impact the optimal strategy, emphasizing the importance of shared decision-making.

External Validation of the FIPS Score for Post-TIPS Mortality in a National Veterans Affairs Cohort

BACKGROUND

The Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) score was recently demonstrated to improve prediction of post-TIPS mortality relative to existing standards. As this score was derived from a German cohort over an extended time period, it is unclear if performance will translate well to other settings. This study aimed to externally validate the FIPS score in a large Veterans Affairs (VA) cohort over two separate eras of TIPS-related care.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS placement in the VA from 2008 to 2020. Cox regression models for post-TIPS survival were constructed using FIPS, MELD, MELD-Na, or CTP scores as predictors. Discrimination (Harrell's C) and calibration (joint tests of calibration curve slope and intercept) were evaluated for each score. A stratified analysis was performed for time periods between 2008-2013 and 2014-2020.

RESULTS

The cohort of 1,274 patients was 97.3% male with mean age 60.9 years and mean MELD-Na 14. The FIPS score demonstrated the highest overall discrimination versus MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP (0.634 vs. 0.585, 0.626, 0.612, respectively). However, in the modern treatment era (2014-2020), the FIPS score performed similarly to MELD-Na. Additionally, the FIPS score demonstrated poor calibration at one-month and six-month post-TIPS timepoints (joint p = 0.04 and 0.004, respectively). MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP were well-calibrated at each timepoint (each joint p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The FIPS score performed similarly to MELD-Na in the modern TIPS treatment era and demonstrated regions of poor calibration. Future models derived with contemporary data may improve prediction of post-TIPS mortality.

Algorithms to Identify Alcoholic Hepatitis Hospitalizations in Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a clinically diagnosed syndrome with high short-term mortality for which liver transplantation may be curative. A lack of validated algorithms to identify AH hospitalizations has hindered clinical epidemiology research.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis using Veterans Health Administration (VHA) data from 2008 to 2015. We randomly sampled hospitalizations based upon abnormal liver tests and administrative codes for acute hepatitis or alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). Hospitalizations were manually adjudicated for AH per society guidelines. A priori algorithms were evaluated to compute positive predicted value (PPV) and positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and were tested in an external University of Pennsylvania Health System (UPHS) cohort.

RESULTS

Of 368 hospitalizations, 142 (38.6%) were adjudicated as AH. AH patients were younger (55 vs. 58 years, p < 0.001), less likely to have prior cirrhosis decompensation (57% vs. 73.9%, p < 0.001), and had higher AST-to-ALT ratios (median 2.9 vs. 1.9 mg/dL, p < 0.001) and higher bilirubin levels (median 2.9 vs. 1.9 mg/dL, p < 0.001). Algorithms combining clinical laboratory criteria (AST > 85 U/L but < 450 U/L, AST-to-ALT ratio > 2, total bilirubin > 5 mg/dL) and administrative coding criteria yielded the highest PPV (96.4%, 95% CI 87.7-99.6) and the highest LR+ (43.0, 95% CI 10.6-173.5). Several algorithms demonstrated 100% PPV for definite AH in the UPHS external cohort.

CONCLUSION

We have identified algorithms for AH hospitalizations with excellent PPV and LR+. These high-specificity algorithms may be used in VHA datasets to identify patients with high likelihood of AH, but should not be used to study AH incidence.

Major Shifts in Outpatient Cirrhosis Care Delivery Attributable to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A National Cohort Study

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted health care delivery in the United States, with increased reliance on telemedicine visits as opposed to in-person outpatient appointments. We used national data to evaluate shifts in modes of hepatology outpatient care for patients with cirrhosis during the pandemic. This was a retrospective cohort study among U.S. veterans with cirrhosis. We used linear regression to evaluate absolute and percentage changes from baseline in hepatology in-person visits and telemedicine visits from January 1, 2020, to August 11, 2020. The proportion of in-person and telemedicine visits were plotted geographically to demonstrate state-level shifts in care delivery over time. Patient-level characteristics in the pre-COVID and during-COVID periods were also compared. We identified 5,618 in-person and 6,210 telemedicine hepatology visits among patients with cirrhosis. In-person visits significantly declined (-16.0% per week; 95% confidence interval [CI] -20.7, -11.2; P < 0.001), while telemedicine visits significantly increased (61.3% per week; 95% CI 45.1, 77.5; P < 0.001) in the early during-COVID period. At the U.S. state level, we found that nearly all states experienced a significant shift toward telemedicine over the course of several weeks. Patients over the age of 70 years and Black patients were less likely to receive telemedicine visits in the pre-COVID period (each P < 0.05), although these differences were eliminated in the during-COVID periods. Conclusion: Among patients with cirrhosis, hepatology outpatient care delivery has shifted heavily toward telemedicine due to COVID-19. This occurred across the United States, and changes have been sustained through August 2020. Expanded telemedicine visits among older patients and Black patients may reflect dedicated efforts to increased access to care among these groups.

Postvaccination COVID-19 infection is associated with reduced mortality in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients develop breakthrough COVID-19 infection despite vaccination. The aim of this study was to identify outcomes in patients with cirrhosis who developed postvaccination COVID-19.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study among US veterans with cirrhosis and postvaccination or unvaccinated COVID-19. Patients were considered fully vaccinated if COVID-19 was diagnosed 14 days after the second dose of either the Pfizer BNT162b2, the Moderna 1273-mRNA, or the single-dose Janssen Ad.26.COV2.S vaccines and partially vaccinated if COVID-19 was diagnosed 7 days after the first dose of any vaccine but prior to full vaccination. We investigated the association of postvaccination COVID-19 with mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 3242 unvaccinated and 254 postvaccination COVID-19 patients with cirrhosis (82 after full and 172 after partial vaccination). In a multivariable analysis of a 1:2 propensity-matched cohort including vaccinated (n = 254) and unvaccinated (n = 508) participants, postvaccination COVID-19 was associated with reduced risk of death (adjusted HR [aHR], 0.21; 95% CI, 0.11-0.42). The reduction was observed after both full (aHR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.08-0.63) and partial (aHR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.07-0.54) vaccination, following the 1273-mRNA (aHR, 0.12; 95% CI 0.04-0.37) and BNT162b2 (aHR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.10-0.71) vaccines and among patients with compensated (aHR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.08-0.45) and decompensated (aHR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.08-0.90) cirrhosis. Findings were consistent in a sensitivity analysis restricted to participants who developed COVID-19 after vaccine availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Though patients with cirrhosis can develop breakthrough COVID-19 after full or partial vaccination, these infections are associated with reduced mortality.

The Association Between Proton Pump Inhibitor Exposure and Key Liver-Related Outcomes in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The impact of proton pump inhibitory (PPI) medications on adverse outcomes in cirrhosis remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate the association between PPI exposure and all-cause mortality, infection, and decompensation in a large national cohort.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration. PPI exposure was classified as a time-updating variable from the index time of the cirrhosis diagnosis. Inverse probability treatment weighting-adjusted Cox regression was performed with additional adjustment for key time-varying covariates, including cardiovascular comorbidities, gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), and statin exposure.

RESULTS

The study included 76,251 patients, 23,628 of whom were on a PPI at baseline. In adjusted models, binary (yes/no) PPI exposure was associated with reduced hazard of all-cause mortality in patients with hospitalization for GIB (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.91; P < .001) but had no significant association in all others (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.97-1.02; P = .58). However, cumulative PPI exposure was associated with increased mortality in patients without hospitalization for GIB (HR, 1.07 per 320 mg-months [omeprazole equivalents]; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08; P < .001). PPI exposure was significantly associated with severe infection (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.18-1.24; P < .001) and decompensation (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.61-1.68; P < .001). In a cause-specific mortality analysis, PPI exposure was associated with increased liver-related mortality (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.19-1.28) but with decreased nonliver-related mortality (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.85-0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

PPI exposure is associated with increased risk of infection and decompensation in cirrhosis, which may mediate liver-related mortality. However, PPI use was associated with reduced all-cause mortality in those with prior GIB, suggesting benefit in the presence of an appropriate indication.