Pattern, process, inference and prediction in extinction biology

Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change

Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss.

Freshwater transitions and symbioses shaped the evolution and extant diversity of caridean shrimps

Understanding the processes that shaped the strikingly irregular distribution of species richness across the Tree of Life is a major research agenda. Changes in ecology may go some way to explain the often strongly asymmetrical fates of sister clades, and we test this in the caridean shrimps. First appearing in the Lower Jurassic, there are now ~3500 species worldwide. Carideans experienced several independent transitions to freshwater from marine habitats, while many of the marine species have also evolved a symbiotic lifestyle. Here we use diversification rate analyses to test whether these ecological traits promote or inhibit diversity within a phylogenetic framework. We demonstrate that speciation rates are more than twice as high in freshwater clades, whilst symbiotic ecologies are associated with lower speciation rates. These lower rates amongst symbiotic species are of concern given that symbioses often occur in some of the most diverse, delicately balanced and threatened marine ecosystems.

Katie Davis et al. test the hypothesis that ecological traits are linked to diversification in caridean shrimps. They find that transitions from marine to freshwater habitats contributed to higher diversification rates, whereas symbiosis is associated with a slight decrease in diversification rates.