Avoiding extinction under nonlinear environmental change: models of evolutionary rescue with plasticity

Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity

Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure (when temperature exceeds realised species' thermal limits) and opportunity (when temperature at a previously unsuitable site becomes suitable) for 21,696 marine species globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected to arise earlier and accumulate gradually, especially in temperate and polar regions. Thermal exposure increases later and occurs more abruptly, mainly in the tropics. Assemblages tend to show either high exposure or high opportunity, but seldom both. Strong emissions reductions reduce exposure around 100-fold whereas reductions in opportunities are halved. Globally, opportunities are projected to emerge faster than exposure until mid-century when exposure increases more rapidly under a high emissions scenario. Moreover, across emissions and dispersal scenarios, 76%-97% of opportunities are projected to persist until 2100. These results indicate thermal opportunities could be a major source of marine biodiversity change, especially in the near- and mid-term. Our work provides a framework for predicting where and when thermal changes will occur to guide monitoring efforts.

Is resilience a unifying concept for the biological sciences?

There is increasing interest in applying resilience concepts at different scales of biological organization to address major interdisciplinary challenges from cancer to climate change. It is unclear, however, whether resilience can be a unifying concept consistently applied across the breadth of the biological sciences, or whether there is limited capacity for integration. In this review, we draw on literature from molecular biology to community ecology to ascertain commonalities and shortcomings in how resilience is measured and interpreted. Resilience is studied at all levels of biological organization, although the term is often not used. There is a suite of resilience mechanisms conserved across biological scales, and there are tradeoffs that affect resilience. Resilience is conceptually useful to help diverse researchers think about how biological systems respond to perturbations, but we need a richer lexicon to describe the diversity of perturbations, and we lack widely applicable metrics of resilience.

Predicting the Responses of Functional Leaf Traits to Global Warming: An In Situ Temperature Manipulation Design Using Iris pumila L

Phenotypic plasticity is widely acknowledged as one of the most common solutions for coping with novel environmental conditions following climate change. However, it is less known whether the current amounts of trait plasticity, which is sufficient for matching with the contemporary climate, will be adequate when global temperatures exceed historical levels. We addressed this issue by exploring the responses of functional and structural leaf traits in Iris pumila clonal individuals to experimentally increased temperatures (~1.5 °C) using an open top chamber (OTC) design. We determined the phenotypic values of the specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, specific leaf water content, and leaf thickness in the leaves sampled from the same clone inside and outside of the OTC deployed on it, over seasons and years within two natural populations. We analyzed the data using a repeated multivariate analysis of variance, which primarily focusses on the profiles (reaction norms (RNs)) of a variable gathered from the same individual at several different time points. We found that the mean RNs of all analyzed traits were parallel regardless of experienced temperatures, but differed in the level and the shape. The populations RNs were similar as well. As the amount of plasticity in the analyzed leaf trait was adequate for coping with elevated temperatures inside the OTCs, we predict that it will be also sufficient for responding to increased temperatures if they exceed the 1.5 °C target.

Phenotypic evolution as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process: The effect of environmental variation and phenotypic plasticity

Here we investigate phenotypic evolution from the perspective of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Evolutionarily speaking, the model assumes the existence of stabilizing selection toward a phenotypic optimum. The standard (OU) model is modified to include environmental variation by taking a moving phenotypic optimum and endowing organisms with phenotypic plasticity. These two processes lead to an effective fitness landscape, which deforms the original. We observe that the simultaneous occurrence of environmental variation and phenotypic plasticity leads to skewed phenotypic distributions. The skewness of the resulting phenotypic distributions strongly depends on the rate of environmental variation and strength of selection. When generalized to more than one trait, the phenotypic distributions are not only affected by the magnitude of the rate of environmental variation but also by its direction. A remarkable feature of our predictions is the existence of an upper bound for the critical rate of environmental variation to allow population persistence, even if there is no cost associated with phenotypic plasticity.

Animal Coloration in the Anthropocene

Natural habitats are increasingly affected by anthropogenically driven environmental changes resulting from habitat destruction, chemical and light pollution, and climate change. Organisms inhabiting such habitats are faced with novel disturbances that can alter their modes of signaling. Coloration is one such sensory modality whose production, perception and function is being affected by human-induced disturbances. Animals that acquire pigment derivatives through diet are adversely impacted by the introduction of chemical pollutants into their environments as well as by general loss of natural habitat due to urbanization or logging leading to declines in pigment sources. Those species that do manage to produce color-based signals and displays may face disruptions to their signaling medium in the form of light pollution and turbidity. Furthermore, forest fragmentation and the resulting breaks in canopy cover can expose animals to predation due to the influx of light into previously dark environments. Global climate warming has been decreasing snow cover in arctic regions, causing birds and mammals that undergo seasonal molts to appear conspicuous against a snowless background. Ectotherms that rely on color for thermoregulation are under pressure to change their appearances. Rapid changes in habitat type through severe fire events or coral bleaching also challenge animals to match their backgrounds. Through this review, we aim to describe the wide-ranging impacts of anthropogenic environmental changes on visual ecology and suggest directions for the use of coloration both as an indicator of ecological change and as a tool for conservation.