Modelling variability in cardiac electrophysiology: a moment-matching approach

Model-driven optimal experimental design for calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Models of the cardiomyocyte action potential have contributed immensely to the understanding of heart function, pathophysiology, and the origin of heart rhythm disturbances. However, action potential models are highly nonlinear, making them difficult to parameterise and limiting to describing 'average cell' dynamics, when cell-specific models would be ideal to uncover inter-cell variability but are too experimentally challenging to be achieved. Here, we focus on automatically designing experimental protocols that allow us to better identify cell-specific maximum conductance values for each major current type.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We developed an approach that applies optimal experimental designs to patch-clamp experiments, including both voltage-clamp and current-clamp experiments. We assessed the models calibrated to these new optimal designs by comparing them to the models calibrated to some of the commonly used designs in the literature. We showed that optimal designs are not only overall shorter in duration but also able to perform better than many of the existing experiment designs in terms of identifying model parameters and hence model predictive power.

CONCLUSIONS

For cardiac cellular electrophysiology, this approach will allow researchers to define their hypothesis of the dynamics of the system and automatically design experimental protocols that will result in theoretically optimal designs.

Cellular heterogeneity and repolarisation across the atria: an in silico study

Mechanisms of atrial fibrillation and the susceptibility to reentries can be impacted by the repolarization across the atria. Studies into atrial fibrillation ignore cell-to-cell heterogeneity due to electrotonic coupling. Recent studies show that cellular variability may have a larger impact on electrophysiological behaviour than assumed. This paper aims to determine the impact of cellular heterogeneity on the repolarization phase across the AF remodelled atria. Using a population of models approach, 10 anatomically identical atrial models were created to include cellular heterogeneity. Atrial models were compared with an equivalent homogenous model. Activation, APD90, and repolarization maps were used to compare models. The impact of electrotonic coupling in the tissue was determined through a comparison of RMP, APD20, APD50, APD90, and triangulation between regional atrial tissue and the single cell populations. After calibration, cellular heterogeneity does not impact atrial depolarization. Repolarization patterns were significantly impacted by cellular heterogeneity, with the APD90 across the LA increasing due to heterogeneity and the reverse occurring in the RA. Electrotonic coupling caused a reduction in variability across all biomarkers but did not fully remove variability. Electrotonic coupling resulted in an increase in APD20 and APD50, and reduced triangulation compared to isolated cell populations. Heterogeneity also caused a reduction in triangulation compared with regionally homogeneous atria.

Brain physiome: A concept bridging in vitro 3D brain models and in silico models for predicting drug toxicity in the brain

In the last few decades, adverse reactions to pharmaceuticals have been evaluated using 2D in vitro models and animal models. However, with increasing computational power, and as the key drivers of cellular behavior have been identified, in silico models have emerged. These models are time-efficient and cost-effective, but the prediction of adverse reactions to unknown drugs using these models requires relevant experimental input. Accordingly, the physiome concept has emerged to bridge experimental datasets with in silico models. The brain physiome describes the systemic interactions of its components, which are organized into a multilevel hierarchy. Because of the limitations in obtaining experimental data corresponding to each physiome component from 2D in vitro models and animal models, 3D in vitro brain models, including brain organoids and brain-on-a-chip, have been developed. In this review, we present the concept of the brain physiome and its hierarchical organization, including cell- and tissue-level organizations. We also summarize recently developed 3D in vitro brain models and link them with the elements of the brain physiome as a guideline for dataset collection. The connection between in vitro 3D brain models and in silico modeling will lead to the establishment of cost-effective and time-efficient in silico models for the prediction of the safety of unknown drugs.

Bayesian Calibration of Electrophysiology Models Using Restitution Curve Emulators

Calibration of cardiac electrophysiology models is a fundamental aspect of model personalization for predicting the outcomes of cardiac therapies, simulation testing of device performance for a range of phenotypes, and for fundamental research into cardiac function. Restitution curves provide information on tissue function and can be measured using clinically feasible measurement protocols. We introduce novel "restitution curve emulators" as probabilistic models for performing model exploration, sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian calibration to noisy data. These emulators are built by decomposing restitution curves using principal component analysis and modeling the resulting coordinates with respect to model parameters using Gaussian processes. Restitution curve emulators can be used to study parameter identifiability via sensitivity analysis of restitution curve components and rapid inference of the posterior distribution of model parameters given noisy measurements. Posterior uncertainty about parameters is critical for making predictions from calibrated models, since many parameter settings can be consistent with measured data and yet produce very different model behaviors under conditions not effectively probed by the measurement protocols. Restitution curve emulators are therefore promising probabilistic tools for calibrating electrophysiology models.

Characterization of Spatio-Temporal Cardiac Action Potential Variability at Baseline and Under β-Adrenergic Stimulation by Combined Unscented Kalman Filter and Double Greedy Dimension Reduction

OBJECTIVE

Elevated spatio-temporal variability of human ventricular repolarization has been related to increased risk for ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death, particularly under β-adrenergic stimulation ( β-AS). This work presents a methodology for theoretical characterization of temporal and spatial repolarization variability at baseline conditions and in response to β-AS. For any measured voltage trace, the proposed methodology estimates the parameters and state variables of an underlying human ventricular action potential (AP) model by combining Double Greedy Dimension Reduction (DGDR) with automatic selection of biomarkers and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Such theoretical characterization can facilitate subsequent characterization of underlying variability mechanisms.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Given an AP trace, initial estimates for the ionic conductances in a stochastic version of the baseline human ventricular O'Hara et al. model were obtained by DGDR. Those estimates served to initialize and update model parameter estimates by the UKF method based on formulation of an associated nonlinear state-space representation and joint estimation of model parameters and state variables. Similarly, β-AS-induced phosphorylation levels of cellular substrates were estimated by the DGDR-UKF methodology. Performance was tested by building an experimentally-calibrated population of virtual cells, from which synthetic AP traces were generated for baseline and β-AS conditions.

RESULTS

The combined DGDR-UKF methodology led to 25% reduction in the error associated with estimation of ionic current conductances at baseline conditions and phosphorylation levels under β-AS with respect to individual DGDR and UKF methods. This improvement was not at the expense of higher computational load, which was diminished by 90% with respect to the individual UKF method. Both temporal and spatial AP variability of repolarization were accurately characterized by the DGDR-UKF methodology.

CONCLUSIONS

A combined DGDR-UKF methodology is proposed for parameter and state variable estimation of human ventricular cell models from available AP traces at baseline and under β-AS. This methodology improves the estimation performance and reduces the convergence time with respect to individual DGDR and UKF methods and renders a suitable approach for computational characterization of spatio-temporal repolarization variability to be used for ascertainment of variability mechanisms and its relation to arrhythmogenesis.

Order Through Disorder: The Characteristic Variability of Systems

Randomness characterizes many processes in nature, and therefore its importance cannot be overstated. In the present study, we investigate examples of randomness found in various fields, to underlie its fundamental processes. The fields we address include physics, chemistry, biology (biological systems from genes to whole organs), medicine, and environmental science. Through the chosen examples, we explore the seemingly paradoxical nature of life and demonstrate that randomness is preferred under specific conditions. Furthermore, under certain conditions, promoting or making use of variability-associated parameters may be necessary for improving the function of processes and systems.

Mechanisms Underlying Interactions Between Low-Frequency Oscillations and Beat-to-Beat Variability of Celullar Ventricular Repolarization in Response to Sympathetic Stimulation: Implications for Arrhythmogenesis

Background and Objectives: Enhanced beat-to-beat variability of ventricular repolarization (BVR) has been linked to arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Recent experimental studies on human left ventricular epicardial electrograms have shown that BVR closely interacts with low-frequency (LF) oscillations of activation recovery interval during sympathetic provocation. In this work human ventricular computational cell models are developed to reproduce the experimentally observed interactions between BVR and its LF oscillations, to assess underlying mechanisms and to establish a relationship with arrhythmic risk.

Materials and Methods: A set of human ventricular action potential (AP) models covering a range of experimental electrophysiological characteristics was constructed. These models incorporated stochasticity in major ionic currents as well as descriptions of β-adrenergic stimulation and mechanical effects to investigate the AP response to enhanced sympathetic activity. Statistical methods based on Automatic Relevance Determination and Canonical Correlation Analysis were developed to unravel individual and common factors contributing to BVR and LF patterning of APD in response to sympathetic provocation.

Results: Simulated results reproduced experimental evidences on the interactions between BVR and LF oscillations of AP duration (APD), with replication of the high inter-individual variability observed in both phenomena. I_CaL, I_Kr and I_K1 currents were identified as common ionic modulators of the inter-individual differences in BVR and LF oscillatory behavior and were shown to be crucial in determining susceptibility to arrhythmogenic events.

Conclusions: The calibrated family of human ventricular cell models proposed in this study allows reproducing experimentally reported interactions between BVR and LF oscillations of APD. Ionic factors involving I_CaL, I_Kr and I_K1 currents are found to underlie correlated increments in both phenomena in response to sympathetic provocation. A link to arrhythmogenesis is established for concomitantly elevated levels of BVR and its LF oscillations.

Data-Driven Identification of Stochastic Model Parameters and State Variables: Application to the Study of Cardiac Beat-to-Beat Variability

OBJECTIVE

Enhanced spatiotemporal ventricular repolarization variability has been associated with ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death, but the involved mechanisms remain elusive. In this paper, a methodology for estimation of parameters and state variables of stochastic human ventricular cell models from input voltage data is proposed for investigation of repolarization variability.

METHODS

The proposed methodology formulates state-space representations based on developed stochastic cell models and uses the unscented Kalman filter to perform joint parameter and state estimation. Evaluation over synthetic and experimental data is presented.

RESULTS

Results on synthetically generated data show the ability of the methodology to: first, filter out measurement noise from action potential (AP) traces; second, identify model parameters and state variables from each of those individual AP traces, thus allowing robust characterization of cell-to-cell variability; and, third, replicate statistical population's distributions of input AP-based markers, including dynamic markers quantifying beat-to-beat variability. Application onto experimental data demonstrates the ability of the methodology to match input AP traces while concomitantly inferring the characteristics of underlying stochastic cell models.

CONCLUSION

A novel methodology is presented for estimation of parameters and hidden variables of stochastic cardiac computational models, with the advantage of providing a one-to-one match between each individual AP trace and a corresponding set of model characteristics.

SIGNIFICANCE

The proposed methodology can greatly help in the characterization of temporal (beat-to-beat) and spatial (cell-to-cell) variability in human ventricular repolarization and in ascertaining the corresponding underlying mechanisms, particularly in scenarios with limited available experimental data.

Fitting two human atrial cell models to experimental data using Bayesian history matching

Cardiac cell models are potentially valuable tools for applications such as quantitative safety pharmacology, but have many parameters. Action potentials in real cardiac cells also vary from beat to beat, and from one cell to another. Calibrating cardiac cell models to experimental observations is difficult, because the parameter space is large and high-dimensional. In this study we have demonstrated the use of history matching to calibrate the maximum conductance of ion channels and exchangers in two detailed models of the human atrial action potential against measurements of action potential biomarkers. History matching is an approach developed in other modelling communities, based on constructing fast-running Gaussian process emulators of the model. Emulators were constructed from a small number of model runs (around 10²), and then run many times (>10⁶) at low computational cost, each time with a different set of model parameters. Emulator outputs were compared with experimental biomarkers using an implausibility measure, which took into account experimental variance as well as emulator variance. By repeating this process, the region of non-implausible parameter space was iteratively reduced. Both cardiac cell models were successfully calibrated to experimental datasets, resulting in sets of parameters that could be sampled to produce variable action potentials. However, model parameters did not occupy a small range of values. Instead, the history matching process exposed inputs that can co-vary across a wide range and still be consistent with a particular biomarker. We also found correlations between some biomarkers, indicating a need for better descriptors of action potential shape.

Improving the generation and selection of virtual populations in quantitative systems pharmacology models

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models aim to describe mechanistically the pathophysiology of disease and predict the effects of therapies on that disease. For most drug development applications, it is important to predict not only the mean response to an intervention but also the distribution of responses, due to inter-patient variability. Given the necessary complexity of QSP models, and the sparsity of relevant human data, the parameters of QSP models are often not well determined. One approach to overcome these limitations is to develop alternative virtual patients (VPs) and virtual populations (Vpops), which allow for the exploration of parametric uncertainty and reproduce inter-patient variability in response to perturbation. Here we evaluated approaches to improve the efficiency of generating Vpops. We aimed to generate Vpops without sacrificing diversity of the VPs' pathophysiologies and phenotypes. To do this, we built upon a previously published approach (Allen et al., 2016) by (a) incorporating alternative optimization algorithms (genetic algorithm and Metropolis-Hastings) or alternatively (b) augmenting the optimized objective function. Each method improved the baseline algorithm by requiring significantly fewer plausible patients (precursors to VPs) to create a reasonable Vpop.

Unlocking data sets by calibrating populations of models to data density: A study in atrial electrophysiology

The understanding of complex physical or biological systems nearly always requires a characterization of the variability that underpins these processes. In addition, the data used to calibrate these models may also often exhibit considerable variability. A recent approach to deal with these issues has been to calibrate populations of models (POMs), multiple copies of a single mathematical model but with different parameter values, in response to experimental data. To date, this calibration has been largely limited to selecting models that produce outputs that fall within the ranges of the data set, ignoring any trends that might be present in the data. We present here a novel and general methodology for calibrating POMs to the distributions of a set of measured values in a data set. We demonstrate our technique using a data set from a cardiac electrophysiology study based on the differences in atrial action potential readings between patients exhibiting sinus rhythm (SR) or chronic atrial fibrillation (cAF) and the Courtemanche-Ramirez-Nattel model for human atrial action potentials. Not only does our approach accurately capture the variability inherent in the experimental population, but we also demonstrate how the POMs that it produces may be used to extract additional information from the data used for calibration, including improved identification of the differences underlying stratified data. We also show how our approach allows different hypotheses regarding the variability in complex systems to be quantitatively compared.