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Wang Y, Zhao Z, Rui J, Chen T. Theoretical Epidemiology Needs Urgent Attention in China. China CDC Wkly 2024; 6:499-502. [PMID: 38854461 PMCID: PMC11154108 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2024.096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/19/2024] [Indexed: 06/11/2024] Open
Abstract
The mathematical method to which theoretical epidemiology belongs is one of the three major methodologies in epidemiology. It is of great value in diagnosing infectious disease epidemic trends and evaluating the effectiveness of prevention and control measures. This paper aims to summarize the brief history of the development of theoretical epidemiology, common types of mathematical models, and key steps to develop a mathematical model. It also provides some thoughts and perspectives on the development and application of theoretical epidemiology in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China
| | - Zeyu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China
| | - Jia Rui
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China
| | - Tianmu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China
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Luo W, Liu Z, Ran Y, Li M, Zhou Y, Hou W, Lai S, Li SL, Yin L. Unraveling varying spatiotemporal patterns of dengue and associated exposure-response relationships with environmental variables in Southeast Asian countries before and during COVID-19. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.03.25.24304825. [PMID: 38585938 PMCID: PMC10996745 DOI: 10.1101/2024.03.25.24304825] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/09/2024]
Abstract
The enforcement of COVID-19 interventions by diverse governmental bodies, coupled with the indirect impact of COVID-19 on short-term environmental changes (e.g. plant shutdowns lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions), influences the dengue vector. This provides a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission and generate insights to guide more targeted prevention measures. We aim to compare dengue transmission patterns and the exposure-response relationship of environmental variables and dengue incidence in the pre- and during-COVID-19 to identify variations and assess the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission. We initially visualized the overall trend of dengue transmission from 2012-2022, then conducted two quantitative analyses to compare dengue transmission pre-COVID-19 (2017-2019) and during-COVID-19 (2020-2022). These analyses included time series analysis to assess dengue seasonality, and a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to quantify the exposure-response relationship between environmental variables and dengue incidence. We observed that all subregions in Thailand exhibited remarkable synchrony with a similar annual trend except 2021. Cyclic and seasonal patterns of dengue remained consistent pre- and during-COVID-19. Monthly dengue incidence in three countries varied significantly. Singapore witnessed a notable surge during-COVID-19, particularly from May to August, with cases multiplying several times compared to pre-COVID-19, while seasonality of Malaysia weakened. Exposure-response relationships of dengue and environmental variables show varying degrees of change, notably in Northern Thailand, where the peak relative risk for the maximum temperature-dengue relationship rose from about 3 to 17, and the max RR of overall cumulative association 0-3 months of relative humidity increased from around 5 to 55. Our study is the first to compare dengue transmission patterns and their relationship with environmental variables before and during COVID-19, showing that COVID-19 has affected dengue transmission at both the national and regional level, and has altered the exposure-response relationship between dengue and the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Luo
- GeoSpatialX Lab, Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Zhihao Liu
- School of Geosciences, Yangtze University, Wuhan, China
| | - Yiding Ran
- GeoSpatialX Lab, Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Mengqi Li
- Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Yuxuan Zhou
- Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Weitao Hou
- School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
| | - Shengjie Lai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Sabrina L Li
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom
| | - Ling Yin
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China
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Zhu K, Yin L, Liu K, Liu J, Shi Y, Li X, Zou H, Du H. Generating synthetic population for simulating the spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1011810. [PMID: 38346079 PMCID: PMC10890746 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011810] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2023] [Revised: 02/23/2024] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Agent-based models have gained traction in exploring the intricate processes governing the spread of infectious diseases, particularly due to their proficiency in capturing nonlinear interaction dynamics. The fidelity of agent-based models in replicating real-world epidemic scenarios hinges on the accurate portrayal of both population-wide and individual-level interactions. In situations where comprehensive population data are lacking, synthetic populations serve as a vital input to agent-based models, approximating real-world demographic structures. While some current population synthesizers consider the structural relationships among agents from the same household, there remains room for refinement in this domain, which could potentially introduce biases in subsequent disease transmission simulations. In response, this study unveils a novel methodology for generating synthetic populations tailored for infectious disease transmission simulations. By integrating insights from microsample-derived household structures, we employ a heuristic combinatorial optimizer to recalibrate these structures, subsequently yielding synthetic populations that faithfully represent agent structural relationships. Implementing this technique, we successfully generated a spatially-explicit synthetic population encompassing over 17 million agents for Shenzhen, China. The findings affirm the method's efficacy in delineating the inherent statistical structural relationship patterns, aligning well with demographic benchmarks at both city and subzone tiers. Moreover, when assessed against a stochastic agent-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model, our results pinpointed that variations in population synthesizers can notably alter epidemic projections, influencing both the peak incidence rate and its onset.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kemin Zhu
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China
| | - Ling Yin
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China
| | - Kang Liu
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China
| | - Junli Liu
- Hangzhou Institute of Technology, Xidian University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yepeng Shi
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China
| | - Xuan Li
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China
| | - Hongyang Zou
- College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China
- National Industry-Education Platform of Energy Storage, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China
| | - Huibin Du
- College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China
- National Industry-Education Platform of Energy Storage, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China
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Zhang X, Chen B, Le J, Hu Y. Impact of different nucleic acid testing scenarios on COVID-19 transmission. Heliyon 2024; 10:e23700. [PMID: 38187298 PMCID: PMC10767492 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e23700] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2023] [Revised: 12/09/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 01/09/2024] Open
Abstract
In the past three years, waves of COVID-19 infections have emerged one after another, and may enter a small-scale wave-like recurrent epidemic pattern in the future. When COVID-19 infections occur in small-scale, how to efficiently detect and prevent the disease has become the main problem. In this study, based on the characteristics of the Omicron variant and China's pandemic prevention and control strategies, the following three nucleic acid testing scenarios were simulated: scenario 1 (baseline scenario) included conducting nucleic acid testing at administrative region; scenario 2 included conducting nucleic acid testing at the community; and scenario 3 included conducting nucleic acid testing at the health facility closest to households. The model calibration showed that the baseline scenario was consistent with the actual transmission scenario of the disease. The simulation results revealed that compared with scenario 1, the cumulative cases in scenarios 2 and 3 were reduced by 9.52 % and 46.83 %, respectively. Compared with scenario 2, the cumulative cases in scenario 3 were reduced by 41.23 %. Thus, adopting nucleic acid testing measures at the household level can effectively limit the spread of COVID-19 and should be given a priority when local emergency occurs in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuedong Zhang
- School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Information, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102627, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Spatial Information Engineering, Beijing 100038, China
| | - Bo Chen
- School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Information, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102627, China
| | - Jiaxu Le
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China
- Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yi Hu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China
- Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
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Thakkar K, Spinardi JR, Yang J, Kyaw MH, Ozbilgili E, Mendoza CF, Oh HML. Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1252719. [PMID: 37818298 PMCID: PMC10560858 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1252719] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2023] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 10/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Epidemiological modeling is widely used to offer insights into the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Asia. We reviewed published computational (mathematical/simulation) models conducted in Asia that assessed impacts of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions against COVID-19 and their implications for vaccination strategy. Methods A search of the PubMed database for peer-reviewed, published, and accessible articles in English was performed up to November 2022 to capture studies in Asian populations based on computational modeling of outcomes in the COVID-19 pandemic. Extracted data included model type (mechanistic compartmental/agent-based, statistical, both), intervention type (pharmacological, non-pharmacological), and procedures for parameterizing age. Findings are summarized with descriptive statistics and discussed in terms of the evolving COVID-19 situation. Results The literature search identified 378 results, of which 59 met criteria for data extraction. China, Japan, and South Korea accounted for approximately half of studies, with fewer from South and South-East Asia. Mechanistic models were most common, either compartmental (61.0%), agent-based (1.7%), or combination (18.6%) models. Statistical modeling was applied less frequently (11.9%). Pharmacological interventions were examined in 59.3% of studies, and most considered vaccination, except one study of an antiviral treatment. Non-pharmacological interventions were also considered in 84.7% of studies. Infection, hospitalization, and mortality were outcomes in 91.5%, 30.5%, and 30.5% of studies, respectively. Approximately a third of studies accounted for age, including 10 that also examined mortality. Four of these studies emphasized benefits in terms of mortality from prioritizing older adults for vaccination under conditions of a limited supply; however, one study noted potential benefits to infection rates from early vaccination of younger adults. Few studies (5.1%) considered the impact of vaccination among children. Conclusion Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmacological interventions helped to mitigate the health burden of COVID-19; however, modeling indicates that high population coverage of effective vaccines will complement and reduce reliance on such interventions. Thus, increasing and maintaining immunity levels in populations through regular booster shots, particularly among at-risk and vulnerable groups, including older adults, might help to protect public health. Future modeling efforts should consider new vaccines and alternative therapies alongside an evolving virus in populations with varied vaccination histories.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karan Thakkar
- Vaccine Medical Affairs, Emerging Markets, Pfizer Inc., Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Jingyan Yang
- Vaccine Global Value and Access, Pfizer Inc., New York, NY, United States
| | - Moe H. Kyaw
- Vaccine Medical Affairs, Emerging Markets, Pfizer Inc., Reston, VA, United States
| | - Egemen Ozbilgili
- Asia Cluster Medical Affairs, Emerging Markets, Pfizer Inc., Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Helen May Lin Oh
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changi General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
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Woodul RL, Delamater PL, Woodburn M. Validating model output in the absence of ground truth data: A COVID-19 case study using the Simulator of Infectious Disease Dynamics in North Carolina (SIDD-NC) model. Health Place 2023; 83:103065. [PMID: 37352616 PMCID: PMC10267499 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2023.103065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2023] [Revised: 05/10/2023] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/25/2023]
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic has progressed, various models have been developed to forecast changes in the outbreak and assess intervention strategies. In this study we validate the Simulator of Infectious Disease Dynamics in North Carolina (SIDD-NC) model against an ensemble of proxy-ground truth infections datasets. We assess the performance of SIDD-NC using Spearman Rank Correlation, RMSE, and percent RMSE at a state and county level. We conduct the analysis for the period of March 2020 through November 2020 as well as in shorter time increments to assess both the recreation of the pandemic curve as well as day-to-day transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the population. We find that SIDD-NC performs well against the datasets in the ensemble, generating an estimate of infections that is robust both spatially and temporally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel L Woodul
- Department of Geography, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Carolina Hall, Campus Box 3220, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, United States; Carolina Population Center, 123 West Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, United States.
| | - Paul L Delamater
- Department of Geography, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Carolina Hall, Campus Box 3220, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, United States; Carolina Population Center, 123 West Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, United States.
| | - Meg Woodburn
- Department of Geography, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Carolina Hall, Campus Box 3220, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, United States.
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Wang K, Han X, Dong L, Chen XJ, Xiu G, Kwan MP, Liu Y. Quantifying the spatial spillover effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk. Int J Health Geogr 2023; 22:13. [PMID: 37286988 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-023-00335-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 05/26/2023] [Indexed: 06/09/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in one place can affect neighboring regions by influencing people's behavior. However, existing epidemic models for NPIs evaluation rarely consider such spatial spillover effects, which may lead to a biased assessment of policy effects. METHODS Using the US state-level mobility and policy data from January 6 to August 2, 2020, we develop a quantitative framework that includes both a panel spatial econometric model and an S-SEIR (Spillover-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model to quantify the spatial spillover effects of NPIs on human mobility and COVID-19 transmission. RESULTS The spatial spillover effects of NPIs explain [Formula: see text] [[Formula: see text] credible interval: 52.8-[Formula: see text]] of national cumulative confirmed cases, suggesting that the presence of the spillover effect significantly enhances the NPI influence. Simulations based on the S-SEIR model further show that increasing interventions in only a few states with larger intrastate human mobility intensity significantly reduce the cases nationwide. These region-based interventions also can carry over to interstate lockdowns. CONCLUSIONS Our study provides a framework for evaluating and comparing the effectiveness of different intervention strategies conditional on NPI spillovers, and calls for collaboration from different regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keli Wang
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, 100091, China
| | - Xiaoyi Han
- The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005, China
- School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005, China
| | - Lei Dong
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, 100091, China
| | - Xiao-Jian Chen
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, 100091, China
| | - Gezhi Xiu
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, 100091, China
| | - Mei-Po Kwan
- Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Yu Liu
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, 100091, China.
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Zhong S, Ma F, Gao J, Bian L. Who Gets the Flu? Individualized Validation of Influenza-like Illness in Urban Spaces. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:ijerph20105865. [PMID: 37239591 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20105865] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 04/27/2023] [Accepted: 05/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Urban dwellers are exposed to communicable diseases, such as influenza, in various urban spaces. Current disease models are able to predict health outcomes at the individual scale but are mostly validated at coarse scales due to the lack of fine-scaled ground truth data. Further, a large number of transmission-driving factors have been considered in these models. Because of the lack of individual-scaled validations, the effectiveness of factors at their intended scale is not substantiated. These gaps significantly undermine the efficacy of the models in assessing the vulnerability of individuals, communities, and urban society. The objectives of this study are twofold. First, we aim to model and, most importantly, validate influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms at the individual scale based on four sets of transmission-driving factors pertinent to home-work space, service space, ambient environment, and demographics. The effort is supported by an ensemble approach. For the second objective, we investigate the effectiveness of the factor sets through an impact analysis. The validation accuracy reaches 73.2-95.1%. The validation substantiates the effectiveness of factors pertinent to urban spaces and unveils the underlying mechanism that connects urban spaces and population health. With more fine-scaled health data becoming available, the findings of this study may see increasing value in informing policies that improve population health and urban livability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shiran Zhong
- Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A 3K7, Canada
| | - Fenglong Ma
- College of Information Sciences and Technology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, State College, PA 16802, USA
| | - Jing Gao
- School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA
| | - Ling Bian
- Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York, Buffalo, NY 14261, USA
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Luo W, He L, Yang Z, Zhang S, Wang Y, Liu D, Hu S, He L, Xia J, Chen M. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the international trade resilience during COVID-19. APPLIED GEOGRAPHY (SEVENOAKS, ENGLAND) 2023; 154:102923. [PMID: 36915293 PMCID: PMC9995340 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.102923] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Revised: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 03/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have created immeasurable health and economic crises, leading to unprecedented disruptions to world trade. The COVID-19 pandemic shows diverse impacts on different economies that suffer and recover at different rates and degrees. This research aims to evaluate the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of international trade network vulnerabilities in the current crisis to understand the global production resilience and prepare for the future crisis. We applied a series of complex network analysis approaches to the monthly international trade networks at the world, regional, and country scales for the pre- and post- COVID-19 outbreak period. The spatio-temporal patterns indicate that countries and regions with an effective COVID-19 containment such as East Asia show the strongest resilience, especially Mainland China, followed by high-income countries with fast vaccine roll-out (e.g., U.S.), whereas low-income countries (e.g., Africa) show high vulnerability. Our results encourage a comprehensive strategy to enhance international trade resilience when facing future pandemic threats including effective non-pharmaceutical measures, timely development and rollout of vaccines, strong governance capacity, robust healthcare systems, and equality via international cooperation. The overall findings elicit the hidden global trading disruption, recovery, and growth due to the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Luo
- GeoSpatialX Lab, Geograph Department, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lingfeng He
- Institute for Empirical Social Science Research, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Zihui Yang
- GeoSpatialX Lab, Geograph Department, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Yong Wang
- School of Computing and Information Systems, Singapore Management University, Singapore
| | | | - Sheng Hu
- School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
- GeoSpatialX Lab, Geograph Department, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Li He
- Institute for Empirical Social Science Research, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Jizhe Xia
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, and Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Spatial Smart Sensing and Service, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
| | - Min Chen
- Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Ministry of Education of PR China), Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
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Cross-regional analysis of the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infection in Southeast Asia during the transitional period of “living with COVID-19”. Health Place 2023; 81:103000. [PMID: 37011444 PMCID: PMC10008814 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2023.103000] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2022] [Revised: 02/24/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/14/2023]
Abstract
Background In response to COVID-19, Southeast Asian (SEA) countries had imposed stringent lockdowns and restrictions to mitigate the pandemic ever since 2019. Because of a gradually boosting vaccination rate along with a strong demand for economic recovery, many governments have shifted the intervention strategy from restrictions to “Living with COVID-19” where people gradually resumed their normal activities since the second half of the year 2021. Noticeably, timelines for enacting the loosened strategy varied across Southeast Asian countries, which resulted in different patterns of human mobility across space and time. This thus presents an opportunity to study the relationship between mobility and the number of infection cases across regions, which could provide support for ongoing interventions in terms of effectiveness. Objective This study aimed to investigate the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infections across space and time during the transition period of shifting strategies from restrictions to normal living in Southeast Asia. Our research results have significant implications for evidence-based policymaking at the present of the COVID-19 pandemic and other public health issues. Methods We aggregated weekly average human mobility data derived from the Facebook origin and destination Movement dataset. and weekly average new cases of COVID-19 at the district level from 01-Jun-2021 to 26-Dec-2021 (a total of 30 weeks). We mapped the spatiotemporal dynamics of human mobility and COVID-19 cases across countries in SEA. We further adopted the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model to identify the spatiotemporal variations of the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infections over 30 weeks. Our model also controls for socioeconomic status, vaccination, and stringency of intervention to better identify the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 spread. Results The percentage of districts that presented a statistically significant association between human mobility and COVID-19 infections generally decreased from 96.15% in week 1 to 90.38% in week 30, indicating a gradual disconnection between human mobility and COVID-19 spread. Over the study period, the average coefficients in 7 SEA countries increased, decreased, and finally kept stable. The association between human mobility and COVID-19 spread also presents spatial heterogeneity where higher coefficients were mainly concentrated in districts of Indonesia from week 1 to week 10 (ranging from 0.336 to 0.826), while lower coefficients were mainly located in districts of Vietnam (ranging from 0.044 to 0.130). From week 10 to week 25, higher coefficients were mainly observed in Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, north Indonesia, and several districts of the Philippines. Despite the association showing a general weakening trend over time, significant positive coefficients were observed in Singapore, Malaysia, western Indonesia, and the Philippines, with the relatively highest coefficients observed in the Philippines in week 30 (ranging from 0.101 to 0.139). Conclusions The loosening interventions in response to COVID-19 in SEA countries during the second half of 2021 led to diverse changes in human mobility over time, which may result in the COVID-19 infection dynamics. This study investigated the association between mobility and infections at the regional level during the special transitional period. Our study has important implications for public policy interventions, especially at the later stage of a public health crisis.
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N'konzi JPN, Chukwu CW, Nyabadza F. Effect of time-varying adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions on the occurrence of multiple epidemic waves: A modeling study. Front Public Health 2022; 10:1087683. [PMID: 36605240 PMCID: PMC9807866 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1087683] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Accepted: 11/29/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) play a central role in infectious disease outbreak response and control. Their usefulness cannot be overstated, especially during the early phases of a new epidemic when vaccines and effective treatments are not available yet. These interventions can be very effective in curtailing the spread of infectious diseases when adequately implemented and sufficiently adopted by the public. However, NPIs can be very disruptive, and the socioeconomic and cultural hardships that come with their implementation interfere with both the ability and willingness of affected populations to adopt such interventions. This can lead to reduced and unsteady adherence to NPIs, making disease control more challenging to achieve. Deciphering this complex interaction between disease dynamics, NPI stringency, and NPI adoption would play a critical role in informing disease control strategies. In this work, we formulate a general-purpose model that integrates government-imposed control measures and public adherence into a deterministic compartmental epidemic model and study its properties. By combining imitation dynamics and the health belief model to encode the unsteady nature of NPI adherence, we investigate how temporal variations in NPI adherence levels affect the dynamics and control of infectious diseases. Among the results, we note the occurrence of multiple epidemic waves as a result of temporal variations in NPI adherence and a trade-off between the stringency of control measures and adherence. Additionally, our results suggest that interventions that aim at increasing public adherence to NPIs are more beneficial than implementing more stringent measures. Our findings highlight the necessity of taking the socioeconomic and cultural realities of affected populations into account when devising public health interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel-Pascal Ntwali N'konzi
- African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Kigali, Rwanda,Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom,*Correspondence: Joel-Pascal Ntwali N'konzi
| | - Chidozie Williams Chukwu
- Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Farai Nyabadza
- Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Ghoroghi A, Rezgui Y, Wallace R. Impact of ventilation and avoidance measures on SARS-CoV-2 risk of infection in public indoor environments. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 838:156518. [PMID: 35688237 PMCID: PMC9172255 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2022] [Revised: 05/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/02/2022] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The literature includes many studies which individually assess the efficacy of protective measures against the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study considers the high infection risk in public buildings and models the quality of the indoor environment, related safety measures, and their efficacy in preventing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. METHODS Simulations are created that consider protective factors such as hand hygiene, face covering and engagement with Covid-19 vaccination programs in reducing the risk of infection in a university foyer. Furthermore, a computational fluid dynamics model is developed to simulate and analyse the university foyer under three ventilation regimes. The probability of transmission was measured across different scenarios. FINDINGS Estimates suggest that the Delta variant requires the air change rate to be increased >1000 times compared to the original strain, which is practically not feasible. Consequently, appropriate hygiene practices, such as wearing masks, are essential to reducing secondary infections. A comparison of different protective factors in simulations found the overall burden of infections resulting from indoor contact depends on (i) face mask adherence, (ii) quality of the ventilation system, and (iii) other hygiene practices. INTERPRETATION Relying on ventilation, whether natural, mechanical, or mixed, is not sufficient alone to mitigate the risk of aerosol infections. This is due to the internal configuration of the indoor space in terms of (i) size and number of windows, their location and opening frequency, as well as the position of the air extraction and supply inlets, which often induce hotspots with stagnating air, (ii) the excessive required air change rate. Hence, strict reliance on proper hygiene practices, namely adherence to face coverings and hand sanitising, are essential. Consequently, face mask adherence should be emphasized and promoted by policymakers for public health applications. Similar research may need to be conducted using a similar approach on the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Ghoroghi
- School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.
| | - Yacine Rezgui
- School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Ruth Wallace
- School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
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Zhang W, Liu S, Osgood N, Zhu H, Qian Y, Jia P. Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review. SYSTEMS RESEARCH AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE 2022; 40:SRES2897. [PMID: 36245570 PMCID: PMC9538520 DOI: 10.1002/sres.2897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2021] [Revised: 05/23/2022] [Accepted: 08/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES), and their hybrids in COVID-19 research and identifies theoretical and application innovations in public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 focused on the prediction of the pandemic and 67 investigated the impacts of COVID-19. ABM was used in 275 papers, followed by 54 SDM papers, 32 DES papers and 11 hybrid model papers. Evaluation and design of intervention scenarios are the most widely addressed area accounting for 55% of the four main categories, that is, the transmission of COVID-19, prediction of the pandemic, evaluation and design of intervention scenarios and societal impact assessment. The complexities in impact evaluation and intervention design demand hybrid simulation models that can simultaneously capture micro and macro aspects of the socio-economic systems involved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weiwei Zhang
- Research Institute of Economics and ManagementSouthwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengduChina
| | - Shiyong Liu
- Institute of Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social SciencesBeijing Normal University at ZhuhaiZhuhaiChina
| | - Nathaniel Osgood
- Department of Computer ScienceUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonCanada
- Department of Community Health and EpidemiologyUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonCanada
| | - Hongli Zhu
- Research Institute of Economics and ManagementSouthwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengduChina
| | - Ying Qian
- Business SchoolUniversity of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghaiChina
| | - Peng Jia
- School of Resource and Environmental SciencesWuhan UniversityWuhanHubeiChina
- International Institute of Spatial Lifecourse HealthWuhan UniversityWuhanHubeiChina
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Luo W, Liu Z, Zhou Y, Zhao Y, Li YE, Masrur A, Yu M. Investigating Linkages Between Spatiotemporal Patterns of the COVID-19 Delta Variant and Public Health Interventions in Southeast Asia: Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistical Analysis Method. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2022; 8:e35840. [PMID: 35861674 PMCID: PMC9364972 DOI: 10.2196/35840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2021] [Revised: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 07/19/2022] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 Delta variant has presented an unprecedented challenge to countries in Southeast Asia (SEA). Its transmission has shown spatial heterogeneity in SEA after countries have adopted different public health interventions during the process. Hence, it is crucial for public health authorities to discover potential linkages between epidemic progression and corresponding interventions such that collective and coordinated control measurements can be designed to increase their effectiveness at reducing transmission in SEA. Objective The purpose of this study is to explore potential linkages between the spatiotemporal progression of the COVID-19 Delta variant and nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures in SEA. We detected the space-time clusters of outbreaks of COVID-19 and analyzed how the NPI measures relate to the propagation of COVID-19. Methods We collected district-level daily new cases of COVID-19 from June 1 to October 31, 2021, and district-level population data in SEA. We adopted prospective space-time scan statistics to identify the space-time clusters. Using cumulative prospective space-time scan statistics, we further identified variations of relative risk (RR) across each district at a half-month interval and their potential public health intervention linkages. Results We found 7 high-risk clusters (clusters 1-7) of COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia between June and August, 2021, with an RR of 5.45 (P<.001), 3.50 (P<.001), 2.30 (P<.001), 1.36 (P<.001), 5.62 (P<.001), 2.38 (P<.001), 3.45 (P<.001), respectively. There were 34 provinces in Indonesia that have successfully mitigated the risk of COVID-19, with a decreasing range between –0.05 and –1.46 due to the assistance of continuous restrictions. However, 58.6% of districts in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines saw an increase in the infection risk, which is aligned with their loosened restrictions. Continuous strict interventions were effective in mitigating COVID-19, while relaxing restrictions may exacerbate the propagation risk of this epidemic. Conclusions The analyses of space-time clusters and RRs of districts benefit public health authorities with continuous surveillance of COVID-19 dynamics using real-time data. International coordination with more synchronized interventions amidst all SEA countries may play a key role in mitigating the progression of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Luo
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Zhaoyin Liu
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yuxuan Zhou
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yumin Zhao
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yunyue Elita Li
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States
| | - Arif Masrur
- Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, United States
| | - Manzhu Yu
- Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, United States
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15
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Jin C, Zhang H, Yin L, Zhang Y, Feng SZ. Optimize data-driven multi-agent simulation for COVID-19 transmission. BMC Bioinformatics 2022; 23:260. [PMID: 35778688 PMCID: PMC9250248 DOI: 10.1186/s12859-022-04799-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2022] [Accepted: 06/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Multi-Agent Simulation is an essential technique for exploring complex systems. In research of contagious diseases, it is widely exploited to analyze their spread mechanisms, especially for preventing COVID-19. Nowadays, transmission dynamics and interventions of COVID-19 have been elaborately established by this method, but its computation performance is seldomly concerned. As it usually suffers from inadequate CPU utilization and poor data locality, optimizing the performance is challenging and important for real-time analyzing its spreading. Results This paper explores approaches to optimize multi-agent simulation for COVID-19 disease. The focus of this work is on the algorithm and data structure designs for improving performance, as well as its parallelization strategies. We propose two successive methods to optimize the computation. We construct a case-focused iteration algorithm to improve data locality, and propose a fast data-mapping scheme called hierarchical hash table to accelerate hash operations. As a result, The case-focused method degrades \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$\times 4.3$$\end{document}×4.3 speedup. Hierarchical hash table can further boost computation speed by 47%. And parallel implementation with 20 threads on CPU achieves \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$\times 80$$\end{document}×80 speedup consequently. Conclusions In this work, we propose optimizations for multi-agent simulation of COVID-19 transmission from aspects of algorithm and data structure. Benefit from improvement of locality and multi-thread implementation, our methods can significantly accelerate the simulation computation. It is promising in supporting real-time prevention of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao Jin
- National Supercomputing Center in Shenzhen, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
| | - Hao Zhang
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, People's Republic of China
| | - Ling Yin
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, People's Republic of China
| | - Yong Zhang
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, People's Republic of China
| | - Sheng-Zhong Feng
- National Supercomputing Center in Shenzhen, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, People's Republic of China
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Zhou S, Zhou S, Zheng Z, Lu J, Song T. Risk assessment for precise intervention of COVID-19 epidemic based on available big data and spatio-temporal simulation method: Empirical evidence from different public places in Guangzhou, China. APPLIED GEOGRAPHY (SEVENOAKS, ENGLAND) 2022; 143:102702. [PMID: 35469327 PMCID: PMC9020488 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102702] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Revised: 03/29/2022] [Accepted: 04/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Risk assessment of the intra-city spatio-temporal spreading of COVID-19 is important for providing location-based precise intervention measures, especially when the epidemic occurred in the densely populated and high mobile public places. The individual-based simulation has been proven to be an effective method for the risk assessment. However, the acquisition of individual-level mobility data is limited. This study used publicly available datasets to approximate dynamic intra-city travel flows by a spatio-temporal gravity model. On this basis, an individual-based epidemic model integrating agent-based model with the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model was proposed and the intra-city spatio-temporal spreading process of COVID-19 in eleven public places in Guangzhou China were explored. The results indicated that the accuracy of dynamic intra-city travel flows estimated by available big data and gravity model is acceptable. The spatio-temporal simulation method well presented the process of COVID-19 epidemic. Four kinds of spatial-temporal transmission patterns were identified and the pattern was highly dependent on the urban spatial structure and location. It indicated that location-based precise intervention measures should be implemented according to different regions. The approach of this research can be used by policy-makers to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to implement intervention measures ahead of epidemic outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuli Zhou
- School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China
- Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disaster, Guangzhou, 510275, China
| | - Suhong Zhou
- School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China
- Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disaster, Guangzhou, 510275, China
| | - Zhong Zheng
- Center for Territorial Spatial Planning and Real Estate Studies, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, 519087, China
| | - Junwen Lu
- School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China
- Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disaster, Guangzhou, 510275, China
| | - Tie Song
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, China
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Zhang H, Yin L, Mao L, Mei S, Chen T, Liu K, Feng S. Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data. Front Public Health 2022; 10:883624. [PMID: 35719665 PMCID: PMC9204335 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.883624] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2022] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 stimulated a new round of discussion on how to deal with respiratory infectious diseases. Influenza viruses have led to several pandemics worldwide. The spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza transmission in modern cities, especially megacities, are not well-known, which increases the difficulty of influenza prevention and control for populous urban areas. For a long time, influenza prevention and control measures have focused on vaccination of the elderly and children, and school closure. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the public's awareness of measures such as vaccinations, mask-wearing, and home-quarantine has generally increased in some regions of the world. To control the influenza epidemic and reduce the proportion of infected people with high mortality, the combination of these three measures needs quantitative evaluation based on the spatiotemporal transmission characteristics of influenza in megacities. Given that the agent-based model with both demographic attributes and fine-grained mobility is a key planning tool in deploying intervention strategies, this study proposes a spatially explicit agent-based influenza model for assessing and recommending the combinations of influenza control measures. This study considers Shenzhen city, China as the research area. First, a spatially explicit agent-based influenza transmission model was developed by integrating large-scale individual trajectory data and human response behavior. Then, the model was evaluated across multiple intra-urban spatial scales based on confirmed influenza cases. Finally, the model was used to evaluate the combined effects of the three interventions (V: vaccinations, M: mask-wearing, and Q: home-quarantining) under different compliance rates, and their optimal combinations for given control objectives were recommended. This study reveals that adults were a high-risk population with a low reporting rate, and children formed the lowest infected proportion and had the highest reporting rate in Shenzhen. In addition, this study systematically recommended different combinations of vaccinations, mask-wearing, and home-quarantine with different compliance rates for different control objectives to deal with the influenza epidemic. For example, the “V45%-M60%-Q20%” strategy can maintain the infection percentage below 5%, while the “V20%-M60%-Q20%” strategy can maintain the infection percentage below 15%. The model and policy recommendations from this study provide a tool and intervention reference for influenza epidemic management in the post-COVID-19 era.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Zhang
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Ling Yin
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China
- *Correspondence: Ling Yin
| | - Liang Mao
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
| | - Shujiang Mei
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China
| | - Tianmu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Kang Liu
- Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China
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Gunaratne C, Reyes R, Hemberg E, O'Reilly UM. Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework. Sci Rep 2022; 12:6202. [PMID: 35418652 PMCID: PMC9007058 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09942-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2021] [Accepted: 03/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important that organizations evaluate the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at mitigating viral transmission among their personnel. We have developed a operational risk assessment simulation framework that couples a spatial agent-based model of movement with an agent-based SIR model to assess the relative risks of different intervention strategies. By applying our model on MIT's Stata center, we assess the impacts of three possible dimensions of intervention: one-way vs unrestricted movement, population size allowed onsite, and frequency of leaving designated work location for breaks. We find that there is no significant impact made by one-way movement restrictions over unrestricted movement. Instead, we find that reducing the frequency at which individuals leave their workstations combined with lowering the number of individuals admitted below the current recommendations lowers the likelihood of highly connected individuals within the contact networks that emerge, which in turn lowers the overall risk of infection. We discover three classes of possible interventions based on their epidemiological effects. By assuming a direct relationship between data on secondary attack rates and transmissibility in the agent-based SIR model, we compare relative infection risk of four respiratory illnesses, MERS, SARS, COVID-19, and Measles, within the simulated area, and recommend appropriate intervention guidelines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chathika Gunaratne
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Cambridge, MA, USA.
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
| | - Rene Reyes
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Erik Hemberg
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Una-May O'Reilly
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Cambridge, MA, USA
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