How maternal investment varies with environmental factors and the age and physiological state of wild tsetse Glossina pallidipes and Glossina morsitans morsitans

Phenotypic divergence of Glossina morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) populations in Zambia: Application of landmark-based wing geometric morphometrics to discriminate population-level variation

An important consequence of the discontinuous distribution of insect populations within their geographic range is phenotypic divergence. Detection of this divergence can be challenging when it occurs through subtle shifts in morphological traits with complex geometries, such as insect wing venation. Here, we used landmark-based wing geometric morphometrics to investigate the population-level phenotypic variation of the two subspecies of Glossina morsitans, G. m. centralis Machado and G. m. morsitans Westwood that occur in Zambia. Twelve homologous landmarks digitised on the right wings of 720 specimens collected from four and five sites (80 per site with 1:1 sex ratio) within the G. m. centralis and G. m. morsitans range respectively, were subjected to generalised Procrustes analysis to obtain wing centroid size (CS) and wing shape variables. Linear permutation models and redundancy analysis were then used to compare CS and wing shape between male and female G. morsitans, the two subspecies G. m. centralis and G. m. morsitans, the sexes of each subspecies and between sample locations within each subspecies range, respectively. Significant differences in CS and wing shape were observed between G. morsitans sexes, subspecies and sample locations within each subspecies range. A neighbour-joining cladogram derived from the analysis of Procrustes distances showed that tsetse within each subspecies range were highly divergent. We conclude that G. morsitans populations in Zambia exhibit significant population-level variation in fly size and wing shape which suggests high levels of population structuring. The main drivers of this structuring could be random genetic drift in G. m. centralis demes and local adaptation to environmental conditions in G. m. morsitans populations. We therefore recommend molecular studies to estimate the levels of gene flow between these populations and identify possible barriers to genetic flow.

Quantifying maternal investment in mammals using allometry

Maternal investment influences the survival and reproduction of both mothers and their progeny and plays a crucial role in understanding individuals' life-history and population ecology. To reveal the complex mechanisms associated with reproduction and investment, it is necessary to examine variations in maternal investment across species. Comparisons across species call for a standardised method to quantify maternal investment, which remained to be developed. This paper addresses this limitation by introducing the maternal investment metric - MI - for mammalian species, established through the allometric scaling of the litter mass at weaning age by the adult mass and investment duration (i.e. gestation + lactation duration) of a species. Using a database encompassing hundreds of mammalian species, we show that the metric is not highly sensitive to the regression method used to fit the allometric relationship or to the proxy used for adult body mass. The comparison of the maternal investment metric between mammalian subclasses and orders reveals strong differences across taxa. For example, our metric confirms that Eutheria have a higher maternal investment than Metatheria. We discuss how further research could use the maternal investment metric as a valuable tool to understand variation in reproductive strategies.

Improved estimates of abortion rates in tsetse (Glossina spp.)

Abortion rates were assessed among 170, 846 tsetse (154,228 Glossina pallidipes and 19,618 Glossina morsitans morsitans) sampled in Zimbabwe in 1988-1999. The study produced improved estimates of abortion rates and how these varied with fly age and size and temperatures experienced during pregnancy. An abortion was diagnosed if the uterus was empty and the largest oocyte <0.82 of the expected mature length. Abortion rates for G. pallidipes and G. m. morsitans were 0.64% (95% ci: 0.59-0.69) and 0.83% (0.62-1.10) for trapped flies and 2.03% (1.77-2.31) and 1.55% (1.20-1.98) for flies from artificial refuges. Abortion rates increased with increasing temperature and decreased with increasing wing length and wing fray. Contrary to laboratory findings, abortion rates did not increase in the oldest flies. Percentages of tsetse with empty uteri, regardless of abortion status, were significantly higher than estimated abortion percentages. For tsetse from traps, 4.01% (95% ci: 3.90-4.13) of G. pallidipes and 2.52% (2.14-2.95) of G. m. morsitans had empty uteri; for flies from artificial refuges, the percentages were 12.69% (12.07-13.34) and 14.90% (13.82-16.02), respectively. Abortion losses are small relative to losses at all other stages of life.

Investigating the unaccounted ones: insights on age-dependent reproductive loss in a viviparous fly

Most empirical and theoretical studies on reproductive senescence focus on observable attributes of offspring produced, such as size or postnatal survival. While harder to study, an important outcome of reproduction for a breeding individual is whether a viable offspring is produced at all. While prenatal mortality can sometimes be directly observed, this can also be indicated through an increase in the interval between offspring production. Both direct reproductive loss and presumed losses have been found to increase in older females across several species. Here, we study such reproductive loss (or "abortion") in tsetse, a viviparous and relatively long-lived fly with high maternal allocation. We consider how age-dependent patterns of abortion depend on the developmental stage of offspring and find that, as per previous laboratory studies, older females have higher rates of abortion at the late-larval stage, while egg-stage abortions are high both for very young and older females. We track the reproductive output of individual females and find little evidence that experiencing an abortion is an adaptive strategy to improve future reproductive outcomes. After an abortion, females do not generally take less time to produce their next offspring, these offspring are not larger, and there is no sex bias towards females, the sex with presumed higher fitness returns (being slightly larger and longer-lived than males, and with high insemination rates). Abortion rates are higher for breeding females experiencing stress, measured as nutritional deprivation, which echoes previous work in tsetse and other viviparous species, i.e., humans and baboons. We discuss our results in the context of studies on reproductive loss across taxa and argue that this is an important yet often overlooked reproductive trait which can vary with maternal age and can also depend on environmental stressors.

Deep learning approaches to landmark detection in tsetse wing images

Morphometric analysis of wings has been suggested for identifying and controlling isolated populations of tsetse (Glossina spp), vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis in Africa. Single-wing images were captured from an extensive data set of field-collected tsetse wings of species Glossina pallidipes and G. m. morsitans. Morphometric analysis required locating 11 anatomical landmarks on each wing. The manual location of landmarks is time-consuming, prone to error, and infeasible for large data sets. We developed a two-tier method using deep learning architectures to classify images and make accurate landmark predictions. The first tier used a classification convolutional neural network to remove most wings that were missing landmarks. The second tier provided landmark coordinates for the remaining wings. We compared direct coordinate regression using a convolutional neural network and segmentation using a fully convolutional network for the second tier. For the resulting landmark predictions, we evaluate shape bias using Procrustes analysis. We pay particular attention to consistent labelling to improve model performance. For an image size of 1024 × 1280, data augmentation reduced the mean pixel distance error from 8.3 (95% confidence interval [4.4,10.3]) to 5.34 (95% confidence interval [3.0,7.0]) for the regression model. For the segmentation model, data augmentation did not alter the mean pixel distance error of 3.43 (95% confidence interval [1.9,4.4]). Segmentation had a higher computational complexity and some large outliers. Both models showed minimal shape bias. We deployed the regression model on the complete unannotated data consisting of 14,354 pairs of wing images since this model had a lower computational cost and more stable predictions than the segmentation model. The resulting landmark data set was provided for future morphometric analysis. The methods we have developed could provide a starting point to studying the wings of other insect species. All the code used in this study has been written in Python and open sourced.

Incorporating effects of age on energy dynamics predicts nonlinear maternal allocation patterns in iteroparous animals

Iteroparous parents face a trade-off between allocating current resources to reproduction versus maximizing survival to produce further offspring. Parental allocation varies across age and follows a hump-shaped pattern across diverse taxa, including mammals, birds and invertebrates. This nonlinear allocation pattern lacks a general theoretical explanation, potentially because most studies focus on offspring number rather than quality and do not incorporate uncertainty or age-dependence in energy intake or costs. Here, we develop a life-history model of maternal allocation in iteroparous animals. We identify the optimal allocation strategy in response to stochasticity when energetic costs, feeding success, energy intake and environmentally driven mortality risk are age-dependent. As a case study, we use tsetse, a viviparous insect that produces one offspring per reproductive attempt and relies on an uncertain food supply of vertebrate blood. Diverse scenarios generate a hump-shaped allocation when energetic costs and energy intake increase with age and also when energy intake decreases and energetic costs increase or decrease. Feeding success and environmentally driven mortality risk have little influence on age-dependence in allocation. We conclude that ubiquitous evidence for age-dependence in these influential traits can explain the prevalence of nonlinear maternal allocation across diverse taxonomic groups.

Cold shock induces a terminal investment reproductive response in C. elegans

Challenges from environmental stressors have a profound impact on many life-history traits of an organism, including reproductive strategy. Examples across multiple taxa have demonstrated that maternal reproductive investment resulting from stress can improve offspring survival; a form of matricidal provisioning when death appears imminent is known as terminal investment. Here we report a reproductive response in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans upon exposure to acute cold shock at 2 °C, whereby vitellogenic lipid movement from the soma to the germline appears to be massively upregulated at the expense of parental survival. This response is dependent on functional TAX-2; TAX-4 cGMP-gated channels that are part of canonical thermosensory mechanisms in worms and can be prevented in the presence of activated SKN-1/Nrf2, the master stress regulator. Increased maternal provisioning promotes improved embryonic cold shock survival, which is notably suppressed in animals with impaired vitellogenesis. These findings suggest that cold shock in C. elegans triggers terminal investment to promote progeny fitness at the expense of parental survival and may serve as a tractable model for future studies of stress-induced progeny plasticity.

Effects of Human Settlements and Spatial Distribution of Wing Vein Length, Wing Fray Categories and Hunger Stages in Glossina morsitans morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) and Glossina pallidipes (Diptera: Glossinidae) in Areas Devoid of Cattle in North-Eastern Zambia

The effect of human-associated habitat degradation on tsetse populations is well established. However, more insights are needed into how gradual human encroachment into tsetse fly belts affect tsetse populations. This study investigated how wing vein length, wing fray categories, and hunger stages, taken as indicators of body size, age, and levels of access to hosts, respectively, in Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood (Diptera: Glossinidae) and Glossina pallidipes Austen (Diptera: Glossinidae), varied along a transect from the edge into inner parts of the tsetse belt, in sites that had human settlement either concentrated at the edge of belt or evenly distributed along transect line, in north-eastern Zambia. Black-screen fly round and Epsilon traps were used in a cross-sectional survey on tsetse flies at three sites, following a transect line marked by a road running from the edge into the inner parts of the tsetse belt, per site. Two sites had human settlement concentrated at or close to the edge of the tsetse belt, whereas the third had human settlement evenly distributed along the transect line. Where settlements were concentrated at the edge of tsetse belt, increase in distance from the settlements was associated with increase in wing vein length and a reduction in the proportion of older, and hungry, tsetse flies. Increase in distance from human settlements was associated with improved tsetse well-being, likely due to increase in habitat quality due to decrease in effects of human activities.

Modelling optimal timing and frequency of insecticide sprays for eradication or knockdown of closed populations of tsetse flies Glossina spp. (Diptera: Glossinidae)

A population model for tsetse species was used to assess the optimal number and spacing of airborne sprays to reduce or eradicate a tsetse population. It was found that the optimal spray spacing was determined by the time (days) from adult emergence to the first larviposition and, for safety, spacing was assigned to that duration minus 2 days. If sprays killed all adults, then the number of sprays required for eradication is determined by a simple formula. If spray efficiency is less than 100% kill per spray, then a simulation was used to determine the optimal number, which was strongly affected by spray efficiency, mean daily temperature, pupal duration, age to first larviposition and the acceptance threshold for control, rather than eradication. For eradication, it is necessary to have a spray efficiency of greater than 99.9% to avoid requiring an excessive number of sprays. Output from the simulation was compared with the results of two aerial spraying campaigns against tsetse and a least squares analysis estimated that, in both cases, the kill efficiency of the sprays was not significantly less than 100%.

Models for the rates of pupal development, fat consumption and mortality in tsetse (Glossina spp)

Environmental temperature is an important driver of the population dynamics of tsetse (Glossina spp) because the fly's immature stages are particularly vulnerable to temperatures (T) outside the range T = 16-32°C. Laboratory experiments carried out 50 years ago provide extensive measures of temperature-dependent rates of development, fat consumption and mortality in tsetse pupae. We improve on the models originally fitted to these data, providing better parameter estimates for use in population modelling. A composite function accurately models rates of pupal development for T = 8-32°C. Pupal duration can be estimated by summing the temperature-dependent daily percentage of development completed. Fat consumption is modelled as a logistic function of temperature; the total fat consumed during pupal development takes a minimum for T ≈ 25°C. Pupae experiencing constant temperatures <16°C exhaust their fat reserves before they complete development. At high temperatures, direct effects kill the pupae before fat stores are exhausted. The relationship between pupal mortality and temperature is well described by the sum of two exponential functions. Summing daily mortality rates over the whole pupal period does not reliably predict overall mortality. Mortality is more strongly correlated with the mean temperature experienced over pupal life or, for T ≤ 30°C, the fat consumption during this period. The new results will be particularly useful in the construction of various models for tsetse population dynamics, and will have particular relevance for agent-based models where the lives of individual tsetse are simulated using a daily time step.

Predicting the Future: Parental Progeny Investment in Response to Environmental Stress Cues

Environmental stressors can severely limit the ability of an organism to reproduce as lifespan is decreased and resources are shifted away from reproduction to survival. Although this is often detrimental to the organism's reproductive fitness, certain other reproductive stress responses may mitigate this effect by increasing the likelihood of progeny survival in the F1 and subsequent generations. Here we review three means by which these progeny may be conferred a competitive edge as a result of stress encountered in the parental generation: heritable epigenetic modifications to nucleotides and histones, simple maternal investments of cytosolic components, and the partially overlapping phenomenon of terminal investment, which can entail extreme parental investment strategies in either cytosolic components or gamete production. We examine instances of these categories and their ability to subsequently impact offspring fitness and reproduction. Ultimately, without impacting nucleotide sequence, these more labile alterations may shape development, evolution, ecology and even human health, necessitating further understanding and research into the specific mechanisms by which environmental stressors are sensed and elicit a corresponding response in the parental germline.

Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe's Zambezi Valley: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Quantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains scant, and predictions rely largely on extrapolation of statistical correlations. We aimed to develop a mechanistic model to test whether recent increases in temperature in the Mana Pools National Park of the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe could account for the simultaneous decline of tsetse flies, the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The model we developed incorporates the effects of temperature on mortality, larviposition, and emergence rates and is fitted to a 27-year time series of tsetse caught from cattle. These catches declined from an average of c. 50 flies per animal per afternoon in 1990 to c. 0.1 in 2017. Since 1975, mean daily temperatures have risen by c. 0.9°C and temperatures in the hottest month of November by c. 2°C. Although our model provided a good fit to the data, it cannot predict whether or when extinction will occur.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests that the increase in temperature may explain the observed collapse in tsetse abundance and provides a first step in linking temperature to trypanosomiasis risk. If the effect at Mana Pools extends across the whole of the Zambezi Valley, then transmission of trypanosomes is likely to have been greatly reduced in this warm low-lying region. Conversely, rising temperatures may have made some higher, cooler, parts of Zimbabwe more suitable for tsetse and led to the emergence of new disease foci.

Disentangling Pre- and Postnatal Maternal Age Effects on Offspring Performance in an Insect with Elaborate Maternal Care

Maternal effect senescence has attracted much recent scientific interest. However, the age-related effects of pre- and postnatal maternal age are often conflated, as these naturally originate from the same individual. Additionally, many maternal effect senescence studies fail to account for potential biases associated with selective disappearance. Here we use a cross-fostered laboratory population of a burying beetle, Nicrophorus vespilloides, to examine both the effects of female pre- and postnatal maternal age on offspring life-history traits and the postcare outcomes of mothers while accounting for selective disappearance of postnatal caregivers. Neither pre- nor postnatal maternal age affected offspring longevity or larval weight at hatching, and postnatal age had no effect on postcare maternal outcomes except to confirm the presence of actuarial senescence. There was weak evidence for concave relationships between two larval traits (dispersal weight and survival) and the age of egg producers. Selective disappearance of caregivers had no clear effect on any of the measured offspring traits. Contrary to predictions from evolutionary theory, maternal effect senescence and reproductive effort increases do not always manifest, and current theory may be insufficient to account for the true diversity of aging patterns relating to maternal care.