An accurate model for SARS-CoV-2 pooled RT-PCR test errors

Assessment of the Effective Sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 Sample Pooling Based on a Large-Scale Screening Experience: Retrospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

The development of new large-scale saliva pooling detection strategies can significantly enhance testing capacity and frequency for asymptomatic individuals, which is crucial for containing SARS-CoV-2.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to implement and scale-up a SARS-CoV-2 screening method using pooled saliva samples to control the virus in critical areas and assess its effectiveness in detecting asymptomatic infections.

METHODS

Between August 2020 and February 2022, our laboratory received a total of 928,357 samples. Participants collected at least 1 mL of saliva using a self-sampling kit and registered their samples via a smartphone app. All samples were directly processed using AutoMate 2550 for preanalytical steps and then transferred to Microlab STAR, managed with the HAMILTON Pooling software for pooling. The standard pool preset size was 20 samples but was adjusted to 5 when the prevalence exceeded 2% in any group. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was conducted using the Allplex SARS-CoV-2 Assay until July 2021, followed by the Allplex SARS-CoV-2 FluA/FluB/RSV assay for the remainder of the study period.

RESULTS

Of the 928,357 samples received, 887,926 (95.64%) were fully processed into 56,126 pools. Of these pools, 4863 tested positive, detecting 5720 asymptomatic infections. This allowed for a comprehensive analysis of pooling's impact on RT-PCR sensitivity and false-negative rate (FNR), including data on positive samples per pool (PPP). We defined Ctref as the minimum cycle threshold (Ct) of each data set from a sample or pool and compared these Ctref results from pooled samples with those of the individual tests (ΔCtP). We then examined their deviation from the expected offset due to dilution [ΔΔCtP = ΔCtP - log2]. In this work, the ΔCtP and ΔΔCtP were 2.23 versus 3.33 and -0.89 versus 0.23, respectively, comparing global results with results for pools with 1 positive sample per pool. Therefore, depending on the number of genes used in the test and the size of the pool, we can evaluate the FNR and effective sensitivity (1 - FNR) of the test configuration. In our scenario, with a maximum of 20 samples per pool and 3 target genes, statistical observations indicated an effective sensitivity exceeding 99%. From an economic perspective, the focus is on pooling efficiency, measured by the effective number of persons that can be tested with 1 test, referred to as persons per test (PPT). In this study, the global PPT was 8.66, reflecting savings of over 20 million euros (US $22 million) based on our reagent prices.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that, as expected, pooling reduces the sensitivity of RT-PCR. However, with the appropriate pool size and the use of multiple target genes, effective sensitivity can remain above 99%. Saliva pooling may be a valuable tool for screening and surveillance in asymptomatic individuals and can aid in controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Further studies are needed to assess the effectiveness of these strategies for SARS-CoV-2 and their application to other microorganisms or biomarkers detected by PCR.

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from repeated pooled testing: application to Swiss routine data

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 through reported positive RT-PCR tests is biased due to non-random testing. Prevalence estimation in population-based samples corrects for this bias. Within this context, the pooled testing design offers many advantages, but several challenges remain with regards to the analysis of such data. We developed a Bayesian model aimed at estimating the prevalence of infection from repeated pooled testing data while (i) correcting for test sensitivity; (ii) propagating the uncertainty in test sensitivity; and (iii) including correlation over time and space. We validated the model in simulated scenarios, showing that the model is reliable when the sample size is at least 500, the pool size below 20, and the true prevalence below 5%. We applied the model to 1.49 million pooled tests collected in Switzerland in 2021-2022 in schools, care centres, and workplaces. We identified similar dynamics in all three settings, with prevalence peaking at 4-5% during winter 2022. We also identified differences across regions. Prevalence estimates in schools were correlated with reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths (coefficient 0.84 to 0.90). We conclude that in many practical situations, the pooled test design is a reliable and affordable alternative for the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.

An improvement of current hypercube pooling PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 detection

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic can be effectively controlled by rapid and accurate identification of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases through large-scale screening. Hypercube pooling polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is frequently used as a pooling technique because of its high speed and efficiency. We attempted to implement the hypercube pooling strategy and found it had a large quantization effect. This raised two questions: is hypercube pooling with edge = 3 actually the optimal strategy? If not, what is the best edge and dimension? We used a C++ program to calculate the expected number of PCR tests per patient for different values of prevalence, edge, and dimension. The results showed that every edge had a best performance range. Then, using C++ again, we created a program to calculate the optimal edge and dimension required for pooling samples when entering prevalence into our program. Our program will be provided as freeware in the hope that it can help governments fight the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.