A scaling investigation of pattern in the spread of COVID-19: universality in real data and a predictive analytical description

Finite-size scaling in kinetics of phase separation in certain models of aligning active particles

To study the kinetics of phase separation in active matter systems, we consider models that impose a Vicsek-type self-propulsion rule on otherwise passive particles interacting via the Lennard-Jones potential. Two types of kinetics are of interest: one conserves the total momentum of all the constituents and the other does not. We carry out molecular dynamics simulations to obtain results on structural, growth, and aging properties. Results from our studies, with various finite boxes, show that there exist scalings with respect to the system sizes, in both the latter quantities, as in the standard passive cases. We have exploited this scaling picture to accurately estimate the corresponding exponents, in the thermodynamically large system size limit, for power-law time dependences. It is shown that certain analytical functions describe the behavior of these quantities quite accurately, including the finite-size limits. Our results demonstrate that even though the conservation of velocity has at best weak effects on the dynamics of evolution in the thermodynamic limit, the finite-size behavior is strongly influenced by the presence (or the absence) of it.

Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like COVID-19

After more than 6 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence of historical examples of the long-time evolution of infectious diseases under similar circumstances, models are crucial to exemplify possible scenarios. Accordingly, in the present work we systematically generalize the popular susceptible-infected-recovered model to account for mutations leading to repeatedly occurring new strains, which we coarse grain based on tools from statistical mechanics to derive a model predicting the most likely outcomes. The model predicts that mutations can induce a super-exponential growth of infection numbers at early times, which self-amplify to giant infection waves which are caused by a positive feedback loop between infection numbers and mutations and lead to a simultaneous infection of the majority of the population. At later stages-if vaccination progresses too slowly-mutations can interrupt an ongoing decrease of infection numbers and can cause infection revivals which occur as single waves or even as whole wave trains featuring alternative periods of decreasing and increasing infection numbers. This panorama of possible mutation-induced scenarios should be tested in more detailed models to explore their concrete significance for specific infectious diseases. Further, our results might be useful for discussions regarding the importance of a release of vaccine-patents to reduce the risk of mutation-induced infection revivals but also to coordinate the release of measures following a downwards trend of infection numbers.

Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19

The complexities involved in modelling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 has been a roadblock in achieving predictability in the spread and containment of the disease. In addition to understanding the modes of transmission, the effectiveness of the mitigation methods also needs to be built into any effective model for making such predictions. We show that such complexities can be circumvented by appealing to scaling principles which lead to the emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of the disease. The ensuing data collapse renders the transmission dynamics largely independent of geopolitical variations, the effectiveness of various mitigation strategies, population demographics, etc. We propose a simple two-parameter model-the Blue Sky model-and show that one class of transmission dynamics can be explained by a solution that lives at the edge of a blue sky bifurcation. In addition, the data collapse leads to an enhanced degree of predictability in the disease spread for several geographical scales which can also be realized in a model-independent manner as we show using a deep neural network. The methodology adopted in this work can potentially be applied to the transmission of other infectious diseases and new universality classes may be found. The predictability in transmission dynamics and the simplicity of our methodology can help in building policies for exit strategies and mitigation methods during a pandemic.