Epidemiology and control of scrapie within a sheep flock

Prion Dissemination through the Environment and Medical Practices: Facts and Risks for Human Health

Prion diseases are a group of fatal, infectious neurodegenerative disorders affecting various species of mammals, including humans. The infectious agent in these diseases, termed prion, is composed exclusively of a misfolded protein that can spread and multiply in the absence of genetic materials. In this article, we provide an overview of the mechanisms of prion replication, interindividual transmission, and dissemination in communities. In particular, we review the potential role of the natural environment in prion transmission, including the mechanisms and pathways for prion entry and accumulation in the environment as well as its roles in prion mutation, adaptation, evolution, and transmission. We also discuss the transmission of prion diseases through medical practices, scientific research, and use of biological products. Detailed knowledge of these aspects is crucial to limit the spreading of existing prion diseases as well as to prevent the emergence of new diseases with possible catastrophic consequences for public health.

Genetic parameters and genomic breeding values for digital dermatitis in Holstein Friesian dairy cattle: host susceptibility, infectivity and the basic reproduction ratio

Background

For infectious diseases, the probability that an animal gets infected depends on its own susceptibility, and on the number of infectious herd mates and their infectivity. Together with the duration of the infectious period, susceptibility and infectivity determine the basic reproduction ratio of the disease (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0). \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0 is the average number of secondary cases caused by a typical infectious individual in an otherwise uninfected population. An infectious disease dies out when \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0 is lower than 1. Thus, breeding strategies that aim at reducing disease prevalence should focus on reducing \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0, preferably to a value lower than 1. In animal breeding, however, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0 has received little attention. Here, we estimate the additive genetic variance in host susceptibility, host infectivity, and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0 for the endemic claw disease digital dermatitis (DD) in Holstein Friesian dairy cattle, and estimate genomic breeding values (GEBV) for these traits. We recorded DD disease status of both hind claws of 1513 cows from 12 Dutch dairy farms, every 2 weeks, 11 times. The genotype data consisted of 75,904 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for 1401 of the cows. We modelled the probability that a cow got infected between recordings, and compared four generalized linear mixed models. All models included a genetic effect for susceptibility; Models 2 and 4 also included a genetic effect for infectivity, while Models 1 and 2 included a farm*period interaction. We corrected for variation in exposure to infectious herd mates via an offset.

Results

GEBV for \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0 from the model that included genetic effects for susceptibility only had an accuracy of ~ 0.39 based on cross-validation between farms, which is very high given the limited amount of data and the complexity of the trait. Models with a genetic effect for infectivity showed a larger bias, but also a slightly higher accuracy of GEBV. Additive genetic standard deviation for \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0 was large, i.e. ~ 1.17, while the mean \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0 was 2.36.

Conclusions

GEBV for \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0 showed substantial variation. The mean \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_{0} $$\end{document}R0 was only about one genetic standard deviation greater than 1. These results suggest that lowering DD prevalence by selective breeding is promising.

A model to estimate effects of SNPs on host susceptibility and infectivity for an endemic infectious disease

BACKGROUND

Infectious diseases in farm animals affect animal health, decrease animal welfare and can affect human health. Selection and breeding of host individuals with desirable traits regarding infectious diseases can help to fight disease transmission, which is affected by two types of (genetic) traits: host susceptibility and host infectivity. Quantitative genetic studies on infectious diseases generally connect an individual's disease status to its own genotype, and therefore capture genetic effects on susceptibility only. However, they usually ignore variation in exposure to infectious herd mates, which may limit the accuracy of estimates of genetic effects on susceptibility. Moreover, genetic effects on infectivity will exist as well. Thus, to design optimal breeding strategies, it is essential that genetic effects on infectivity are quantified. Given the potential importance of genetic effects on infectivity, we set out to develop a model to estimate the effect of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. To evaluate the quality of the resulting SNP effect estimates, we simulated an endemic disease in 10 groups of 100 individuals, and recorded time-series data on individual disease status. We quantified bias and precision of the estimates for different sizes of SNP effects, and identified the optimum recording interval when the number of records is limited.

RESULTS

We present a generalized linear mixed model to estimate the effect of SNPs on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. SNP effects were on average slightly underestimated, i.e. estimates were conservative. Estimates were less precise for infectivity than for susceptibility. Given our sample size, the power to estimate SNP effects for susceptibility was 100% for differences between genotypes of a factor 1.56 or more, and was higher than 60% for infectivity for differences between genotypes of a factor 4 or more. When disease status was recorded 11 times on each animal, the optimal recording interval was 25 to 50% of the average infectious period.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model was able to estimate genetic effects on susceptibility and infectivity. In future genome-wide association studies, it may serve as a starting point to identify genes that affect disease transmission and disease prevalence.

Detection of prions in the faeces of sheep naturally infected with classical scrapie

Classical scrapie is a naturally transmitted prion disease of sheep and goats. Contaminated environments may contribute to the spread of disease and evidence from animal models has implicated urine, blood, saliva, placenta and faeces as possible sources of the infection. Here we sought to determine whether sheep naturally infected with classical scrapie shed prions in their faeces. We used serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) along with two extraction methods to examine faeces from sheep during both the clinical and preclinical phases of the disease and showed amplification of PrP^Sc in 7 of 15 and 14 of 14 sheep respectively. However PrP^Sc was not amplified from the faeces of 25 sheep not exposed to scrapie. These data represent the first demonstration of prion shedding in faeces from a naturally infected host and thus a likely source of prion contamination in the environment.

Soil clay content underlies prion infection odds

Environmental factors—especially soil properties—have been suggested as potentially important in the transmission of infectious prion diseases. Because binding to montmorillonite (an aluminosilicate clay mineral) or clay-enriched soils had been shown to enhance experimental prion transmissibility, we hypothesized that prion transmission among mule deer might also be enhanced in ranges with relatively high soil clay content. In this study, we report apparent influences of soil clay content on the odds of prion infection in free-ranging deer. Analysis of data from prion-infected deer herds in northern Colorado, USA, revealed that a 1% increase in the clay-sized particle content in soils within the approximate home range of an individual deer increased its odds of infection by up to 8.9%. Our findings suggest that soil clay content and related environmental properties deserve greater attention in assessing risks of prion disease outbreaks and prospects for their control in both natural and production settings.

The infectious prion diseases affect numerous hoofed animal species, and it has been suggested that the properties of the local soil affect transmission of these diseases. Here, the authors studied two North American locations and demonstrate that soil clay content can influence the infection rate in deer.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of viral hepatitis A in Italy

Viral hepatitis A is still common in Italy, especially in Southern regions. In this study, a metapopulation model for hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission is proposed and analyzed. Analytical results on the asymptotic and transient behaviors of the system are carried out. Based on the available Italian movement data, a national spatial contact matrix at the regional level, which could be used for new studies on the transmission dynamics of other infectious diseases, is derived for modeling fluxes of individuals. Despite the small number of fitted parameters, model simulations are in good agreement with the observed average HAV incidence in all regions. Our results suggest that the mass vaccination program introduced in one Italian region only (Puglia, the one with the highest endemicity level) could have played a role in the decline of HAV incidence in the country as a whole. The only notable exception is represented by Campania, a Southern region showing a high endemicity level, which is not substantially affected by HAV dynamics in Puglia. Finally, our results highlight that the continuation of the vaccination campaign in Puglia would have a relevant impact in decreasing long-term HAV prevalence, especially in Southern Italy.

Use of a preclinical test in the control of classical scrapie

Scrapie control in Great Britain (GB) was originally based on the National Scrapie Plan's Ram Genotyping scheme aimed at reducing the susceptibility of the national flock. The current official strategy to control scrapie in the national flock involves culling susceptible genotypes in individual, known affected flocks (compulsory scrapie flock scheme or CSFS). However, the recent development of preclinical test candidates means that a strategy based on disease detection may now be feasible. Here, a deterministic within-flock model was used to demonstrate that only large flocks with many home-bred ewes are likely to be a significant risk for flock-to-flock transmission of scrapie. For most other flocks, it was found that the CSFS could be replaced by a strategy using a currently available live test without excessive risk to other farmers, even if the proportion of susceptible genotypes in the flock is unusually large. Even for flocks that represent a high risk of harbouring a high prevalence of infection, there would be limited probability of onward transmission if scrapie is detected soon after disease introduction (typically less than 5 years). However, if detection of disease is delayed, the existing CSFS strategy may be the most appropriate control measure in these cases.

Scrapie prevalence in sheep of susceptible genotype is declining in a population subject to breeding for resistance

Background

Susceptibility of sheep to scrapie infection is known to be modulated by the PrP genotype of the animal. In the Netherlands an ambitious scrapie control programme was started in 1998, based on genetic selection of animals for breeding. From 2002 onwards EU regulations required intensive active scrapie surveillance as well as certain control measures in affected flocks.

Here we analyze the data on genotype frequencies and scrapie prevalence in the Dutch sheep population obtained from both surveillance and affected flocks, to identify temporal trends. We also estimate the genotype-specific relative risks to become a detected scrapie case.

Results

We find that the breeding programme has produced a steady increase in the level of genetic scrapie resistance in the Dutch sheep population. We also find that a significant decline in the prevalence of scrapie in tested animals has occurred a number of years after the start of the breeding programme. Most importantly, the estimated scrapie prevalence level per head of susceptible genotype is also declining significantly, indicating that selective breeding causes a population effect.

Conclusions

The Dutch scrapie control programme has produced a steady rise in genetic resistance levels in recent years. A recent decline in the scrapie prevalence per tested sheep of susceptible prion protein genotype indicates that selective breeding causes the desired population effect.

Surveillance and simulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie in small ruminants in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland.

RESULTS

In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

The role of mathematical modelling in understanding the epidemiology and control of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies: a review

To deal with the incompleteness of observations and disentangle the complexities of transmission much use has been made of mathematical modelling when investigating the epidemiology of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) and, in particular, scrapie. Importantly, these modelling approaches allow the incidence of clinical disease to be related to the underlying prevalence of infection, thereby overcoming one of the major difficulties when studying these diseases. Models have been used to investigate the epidemiology of scrapie within individual flocks and at a regional level; to assess the efficacy of different control strategies, especially selective breeding programmes based on prion protein (PrP) genotype; to interpret the results of scrapie surveillance; and to inform the design of surveillance programmes. Furthermore, mathematical modelling has played an important role when assessing the risk to human health posed by the possible presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in sheep. Here, we review the various approaches that have been taken when developing and analysing mathematical models for the epidemiology and control of sheep TSE and assess their impact on our understanding of these diseases. We also identify areas that require further work, discuss future challenges and identify data gaps.

Implications of conflicting associations of the prion protein (PrP) gene with scrapie susceptibility and fitness on the persistence of scrapie

BACKGROUND

Existing mathematical models for scrapie dynamics in sheep populations assume that the PrP gene is only associated with scrapie susceptibility and with no other fitness related traits. This assumption contrasts recent findings of PrP gene associations with post-natal lamb survival in scrapie free Scottish Blackface populations. Lambs with scrapie resistant genotypes were found to have significantly lower survival rates than those with susceptible genotypes. The present study aimed to investigate how these conflicting PrP gene associations may affect the dynamic patterns of PrP haplotype frequencies and disease prevalence.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A deterministic mathematical model was developed to explore how the associations between PrP genotype and both scrapie susceptibility and postnatal lamb mortality affect the prevalence of scrapie and the associated change in PrP gene frequencies in a closed flock of sheep. The model incorporates empirical evidence on epidemiological and biological characteristics of scrapie and on mortality rates induced by causes other than scrapie. The model results indicate that unfavorable associations of the scrapie resistant PrP haplotypes with post-natal lamb mortality, if sufficiently strong, can increase scrapie prevalence during an epidemic, and result in scrapie persisting in the population. The range of model parameters, for which such effects were observed, is realistic but relatively narrow.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The results of the present model suggest that for most parameter combinations an unfavourable association between PrP genotype and post-natal lamb mortality does not greatly alter the dynamics of scrapie and, hence, would not have an adverse impact on a breeding programme. There were, however, a range of scenarios, narrow, but realistic, in which such an unfavourable association resulted in an increased prevalence and in the persistence of infection. Consequently, associations between PrP genotypes and fitness traits should be taken into account when designing future models and breeding programmes.

The evaluation of exposure risks for natural transmission of scrapie within an infected flock

Background

Although the epidemiology of scrapie has been broadly understood for many years, attempts to introduce voluntary or compulsory controls to eradicate the disease have frequently failed. Lack of precision in defining the risk factors on farm has been one of the challenges to designing control strategies. This study attempted to define which parts of the annual flock management cycle represented the greatest risk of infection to naive lambs exposed to the farm environment at different times.

Results

In VRQ/VRQ lambs exposed to infected sheep at pasture or during lambing, and exposed to the buildings in which lambing took place, the attack rate was high and survival times were short. Where exposure was to pasture alone the number of sheep affected in each experimental group was reduced, and survival times were longer and related to length of exposure.

Conclusion

At the flock level, eradication and control strategies for scrapie must take into account the need to decontaminate buildings used for lambing, and to reduce (or prevent) the exposure of lambs to infected sheep, especially in the later stages of incubation, and at lambing. The potential for environmental contamination from pasture should also be considered. Genotype selection may still prove to be the only viable tool to prevent infection from contaminated pasture, reduce environmental contamination and limit direct transmission from sheep to sheep.

Failure to transmit scrapie infection by transferring preimplantation embryos from naturally infected donor sheep

The objective of the study was to examine whether or not the preimplantation embryo can act as a carrier of classic scrapie infection. The study was carried out on quarantined premises with sheep of highly susceptible scrapie genotypes. Uninfected embryos, collected from New Zealand-derived Suffolk ewes, were surgically transferred into recipient ewes that were also of New Zealand origin. Seventeen negative control lambs were born on the study premises from these embryo transfers. Thirty-nine experimental lambs were from embryos collected from naturally infected donor ewes. The experimental lambs were also born on the study premises after their surgical transfer into recipient ewes of New Zealand origin. These embryos had been collected from donor ewes in a scrapie-infected flock where the ewes were clinically sick with scrapie or developed clinical scrapie after embryo collection. All lambs were confirmed as scrapie susceptible of the ARQ/ARQ genotype. Twenty-eight experimental animals survived to the end point of the study at 5 yr of age with a mean survival of 1579 d. In the negative control group, 12 of 17 sheep survived to 5 yr of age with a mean survival of 1508 d. Postmortem examinations were carried out on all animals derived by embryo transfer, and in none was histologic or immunohistochemical evidence of scrapie found. In contrast, in the originating flock the majority of scrapie cases occurred in ARQ/ARQ genotyped animals where a 56% mortality from scrapie had been recorded in animals of this genotype. Thus, the study provides no evidence for transmission of scrapie and reinforces published evidence that vertical transmission of scrapie may be circumvented by embryo transfer procedures.

Epidemiological characteristics of classical scrapie outbreaks in 30 sheep flocks in the United Kingdom

Background

Most previous analyses of scrapie outbreaks have focused on flocks run by research institutes, which may not reflect the field situation. Within this study, we attempt to rectify this deficit by describing the epidemiological characteristics of 30 sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, and by exploring possible underlying causes of variation in the characteristics between flocks, including flock-level prion protein (PrP) genotype profile. In total, the study involved PrP genotype data for nearly 8600 animals and over 400 scrapie cases.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We found that most scrapie cases were restricted to just two PrP genotypes (ARQ/VRQ and VRQ/VRQ), though two flocks had markedly different affected genotypes, despite having similar underlying genotype profiles to other flocks of the same breed; we identified differences amongst flocks in the age of cases of certain PrP genotypes; we found that the age-at-onset of clinical signs depended on peak incidence and flock type; we found evidence that purchasing infected animals is an important means of introducing scrapie to a flock; we found some evidence that flock-level PrP genotype profile and flock size account for variation in outbreak characteristics; identified seasonality in cases associated with lambing time in certain flocks; and we identified one case that was homozygous for phenylalanine at codon 141, a polymorphism associated with a very high risk of atypical scrapie, and 28 cases that were heterozygous at this codon.

Conclusions/Significance

This paper presents the largest study to date on commercially-run sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, involving 30 study flocks, more than 400 scrapie cases and over 8500 PrP genotypes. We show that some of the observed variation in epidemiological characteristics between farms is related to differences in their PrP genotype profile; although much remains unexplained and may instead be attributed to the stochastic nature of scrapie dynamics.

A descriptive study of the prevalence of atypical and classical scrapie in sheep in 20 European countries

Background

The development of active surveillance programmes for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies of small ruminants across Europe has led to the recent identification of a previously undetected form of ovine prion disease, 'atypical' scrapie. Knowledge of the epidemiology of this disease is still limited, as is whether it represents a risk for animal and/or public health.

The detection of atypical scrapie has been related to the use of only some of the EU agreed rapid tests. Information about the rapid tests used is not, as yet, available from public reports on the surveillance of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants. We collected detailed results of active surveillance from European countries to estimate and to compare the prevalence of atypical scrapie and classical scrapie in sheep for each country stratified by each surveillance stream; healthy slaughtered and found dead adult sheep.

Results

From the 20 participating countries, it appeared that atypical scrapie was detected in Europe wherever the conditions necessary for its diagnosis were present. In most countries, atypical scrapie and classical scrapie occurred at low prevalence level. The classical scrapie prevalence estimates were more variable than those for atypical scrapie, which appeared remarkably homogeneous across countries, surveillance streams and calendar years of surveillance. Differences were observed in the age and genotype of atypical scrapie and classical scrapie cases that are consistent with previous published findings.

Conclusion

This work suggests that atypical scrapie is not rare compared to classical scrapie. The homogeneity of its prevalence, whatever the country, stream of surveillance or year of detection, contrasts with the epidemiological pattern of classical scrapie. This suggests that the aetiology of atypical scrapie differs from that of classical scrapie.

Detection and survival of prion agents in aquatic environments

Environmental contamination is considered a potential mechanism of transmission of prion diseases. Sheep scrapie and cervid chronic wasting diseases (CWD) epizootics are thought to be maintained by natural horizontal transmission through the environment. Here, we describe a method for the detection of prion proteins (PrPres) in aquatic environments. The procedure is based on a glycine buffer-mediated extraction, sonication, and an ultracentrifugation step. The detection limit of the method was estimated to be over 5-10 microg of infected tissue. In order to determine the inactivation of these agents, we spiked infected brain tissue in urban sewage, seawater and a buffered solution (final concentrations of 0.1-0.2% brain in matrix), and studied the decay of BSE- and scrapie-associated PrPres over time (up to 265 days). Densitometric data from Western blots were plotted in logarithmic scale against time. Reduction of PrPres titer in sewage was quantified in one logarithm after 13.5 days for BSE, 27.9 days for mouse-passaged scrapie and 32.6 days for sheep scrapie. In the buffered solution, a logarithm of BSE-associated PrPres also disappeared earlier than that of scrapie (113.9 and 214.3 days, respectively). By means of the covariance analysis, these differences in the inactivation patterns were shown to be statistically significant. According to the data, prions may be stable for extended periods of time in buffered solutions like PBS, but would show limited survival in aquatic environmental matrices.

Advanced survival models for risk-factor analysis in scrapie

Because of the confounding effects of long incubation duration and flock management, accurate epidemiological studies of scrapie outbreaks are difficult to carry out. In this study, 641 Manech red-faced sheep from six scrapie-affected field flocks in Pyrénées Atlantiques, France, were monitored for clinical scrapie over a 6–9 year period. Over this period, 170 scrapie clinical cases were recorded and half of the culled animals were submitted for post-mortem transmissible spongiform encephalopathy diagnosis to assess their infectious status. Collected data were analysed using a ‘mixture cure model’ approach, which allowed for the discriminating effect of PrP genotype and flock origin on incidence and incubation period. Simulations were performed to evaluate the applicability of such a statistical model to the collected data. As expected, ARR heterozygote sheep were less at risk of becoming infected than ARQ/ARQ individuals and had a greater age at clinical onset. Conversely, when compared with ARQ/ARQ, the VRQ haplotype was associated with an increased infection risk, but not a shorter incubation period. Considering the flock effect, we observed that a high incidence rate was not associated with shorter incubation periods and that the incubation period could be significantly different in flocks harbouring similar infection risks. These results strongly support the conclusion that other parameters, such as the nature of the agent or flock management, could interfere with epidemiological dynamics of the infection in scrapie-affected flocks.

Dynamics of prion disease transmission in mule deer

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a contagious prion disease of the deer family, has the potential to severely harm deer populations and disrupt ecosystems where deer occur in abundance. Consequently, understanding the dynamics of this emerging infectious disease, and particularly the dynamics of its transmission, has emerged as an important challenge for contemporary ecologists and wildlife managers. Although CWD is contagious among deer, the relative importance of pathways for its transmission remains unclear. We developed seven competing models, and then used data from two CWD outbreaks in captive mule deer and model selection to compare them. We found that models portraying indirect transmission through the environment had 3.8 times more support in the data than models representing transmission by direct contact between infected and susceptible deer. Model-averaged estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) were 1.3 or greater, indicating likely local persistence of CWD in natural populations under conditions resembling those we studied. Our findings demonstrate the apparent importance of indirect, environmental transmission in CWD and the challenges this presents for controlling the disease.

Flock-level risk factors for scrapie in Great Britain: analysis of a 2002 anonymous postal survey

Background

In November 2002, an anonymous postal survey of sheep farmers in Great Britain (GB) was conducted to identify factors associated with the flock-level occurrence of scrapie. This survey was undertaken to update an earlier postal survey in 1998, and was the first occasion in which a large-scale postal survey had been repeated.

Results

The results of the 2002 survey indicated that scrapie was more likely to occur in certain geographic regions; in purebred compared to commercial flocks; in larger flocks; in flocks which lambed in group pens compared to those which lambed in individual pens; in flocks which always lambed in the same location compared to those which did not; and in farms which kept certain breeds of sheep. In addition to these factors, the likelihood of the disease occurring in homebred animals was higher in flocks which bred a greater proportion of replacement animals or which bought-in lambs. Finally, within-flock transmission following exposure was more likely to occur in hill flocks compared to other farm types; in flocks which bred a greater proportion of replacement animals; and in farms which kept a certain crossbreed of ewe.

Conclusion

The risk factors identified from the 1998 and 2002 anonymous postal surveys in Great Britain were similar. However, differences between the surveys were identified in the influence of region and of purchasing behaviour on the risk of scrapie. These differences are most likely a consequence of changes in farmer awareness and the impact of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic, respectively.

Epidemiological analysis of data for scrapie in Great Britain

In recent years, the control or eradication of scrapie and any other transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) possibly circulating in the sheep population has become a priority in Britain and elsewhere in Europe. A better understanding of the epidemiology of scrapie would greatly aid the development and evaluation of control and eradication strategies. Here we bound the range of key epidemiological parameters using a combination of relatively detailed pathogenesis and demography data, more limited data on susceptibility and incubation times, and recent survey data on scrapie incidence in Great Britain. These data are simultaneously analysed using mathematical models describing scrapie transmission between sheep and between flocks. Our analysis suggests that occurrence of scrapie in a flock typically provokes changes in flock management that promote termination of the outbreak, such as the adoption of selective breeding, and that a large fraction of cases (possibly over 80%) goes undetected. We show that the data analysed are consistent with the within-flock reproduction number of scrapie lying in the range 1.5-6, consistent with previous epidemiological studies.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep. II. Assessing the impact on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie

By establishing a breeding programme for transmissible spongiform encephalopathie (TSE) resistance, there are plans to eradicate sheep TSEs from member states of the European Union (EU). In this paper, we used a simple age- and genotype-structured model to assess the impact of four breeding strategies on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie in the British sheep flock. The strategies ranged from the minimum EU requirements to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP). All four strategies were predicted to reduce the prevalence and incidence of disease, though there was likely to be a delay of several years between the implementation of a breeding programme and the reduction in incidence. There were differences in the efficacy of the strategies, with the most stringent resulting in the greatest reduction in prevalence and incidence. However, the magnitude of the differences was not great, largely because all four strategies eliminated the VRQ allele, which is associated with a markedly higher risk of disease than any of the other alleles. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the model results were robust to selection bias when estimating the risk of infection; and that the efficacy of a breeding programme was unlikely to be compromised, unless the risk of infection is substantially underestimated by data on clinical disease.

A modelling framework to describe the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks in Great Britain

My aim was to develop a stochastic, spatial model describing the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks in Great Britain; I wanted a model, which could subsequently be used to assess the efficacy of different control strategies. The structure of the model reflects the demography of the British sheep flock, including a description of the contact structure between flocks. The dynamics of scrapie were incorporated through two probabilities associated with each flock: of acquiring infection and of experiencing a within-flock outbreak following exposure. The acquisition of infection depends on whether or not a flock buys-in sheep and, if it does, whether or not it trades with an affected flock. Once a flock is exposed, the probability of a within-flock outbreak occurring and its duration depend on the basic reproductive number, the prion-protein (PrP) genotype profile and the flock size. The model was validated using regional data from two postal surveys conducted in 1998 and 2002, which demonstrated that the model captures the spatial dynamics of scrapie (at least at a regional level). Moreover, the predicted distribution for the duration of a within-flock outbreak reflects the duration of outbreaks reported in the literature. Using the model to predict long-term trends in the proportion of affected flocks suggested that, even without control measures beyond the removal of animals with clinical signs, scrapie ultimately will disappear from the national flock, though it is likely to be decades before the disease is eliminated. However, there were scenarios consistent with the available data which suggested that scrapie could remain endemic within the British sheep flock. Consequently, it is essential to take this uncertainty in the long-term dynamics of scrapie into account when considering the efficacy of control strategies. Although control strategies were not explicitly examined, the model suggests two aspects important for control: larger flocks remain affected for longer and provide infection for other, smaller flocks and animal movements must be traceable.

Simulation of the options for a national control programme to eradicate scrapie from Great Britain

Because of the risk to public health posed by the potential presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in sheep, there are plans to eradicate transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) from the British sheep population. We used a mathematical model for the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks to assess the efficacy of five control strategies at eradicating the infection from the national flock. These range from ram-genotyping schemes through whole-flock genotyping with selective culling to whole-flock slaughter. The impact of control was considered under three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie in GB: two in which scrapie is ultimately eliminated (with different median extinction times) and one in which scrapie remains endemic. Results suggested that it is feasible to eradicate scrapie from the British sheep flock, but that any national control programme will take decades to eliminate the disease and be costly. The most-effective strategy, measured in terms of the probability of eradication and time taken for eradication, was predicted to be whole-flock culling, which was effective under all three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie. Strategies involving whole-flock genotyping with selective culling were also effective, though they were predicted to take longer to eradicate scrapie than whole-flock culling. Ram-genotyping schemes were effective in some instances, but not for the scenario where scrapie remained endemic in the national flock. At low levels of reporting of clinical disease (< 20%) the probability of eradication within 100 years was predicted to be < 100% and, consequently, low levels of reporting could compromise the effectiveness of a control programme. Moreover, the predicted time taken to eradicate scrapie would increase markedly if the reporting compliance decreased.

Polygenic variation and transmission factors involved in the resistance/susceptibility to scrapie in a Romanov flock

Data from 4049 Romanov sheep belonging to a flock affected by natural scrapie were analysed by using survival-analysis techniques. Failure time was defined as the period of time between first exposure to infection and the date that animals left the flock with scrapie signs. Four hundred and forty-seven sheep were identified as ‘scrapie animals’. Several models, including level of exposure as a time-dependent effect, PrP genotype, sex, age at first exposure, litter size and factors related to vertical transmission, were tested. The best model was extended to a sire–dam frailty model, in order to estimate the polygenic variation in addition to that in the Prnp gene. A combined effect of rearing type and the dam's disease status was detected. Thus, only sheep with a low degree of exposure to infection as lambs (lambs reared artificially and born out of a healthy dam) showed less risk than others. Animals first exposed to infection at older ages seemed to be less susceptible to scrapie. In this Romanov population, new genotypes (AHQ/AHQ, AHQ/VRQ, ARR/VRQ and ARR/ARQ) were associated with risk, suggesting the effect of genotypes on the incubation period of animals. Polygenic variance was responsible for 21 % of the total genetic variability that was related to susceptibility to scrapie. Therefore, the genetic susceptibility to scrapie may be explained by the joint effect of point mutations at the Prnp major gene and a number of genes that modulate its effect.

Biology of PrPsc accumulation in two natural scrapie-infected sheep flocks

Sheep scrapie is a prion disease that requires interaction of exogenous prions with host prion protein (PrP) supporting prion formation. Disease is associated with deposition of a host-generated conformational variant of PrP, PrPsc, in a variety of tissues, including brain, resulting in fatal spongiform encephalopathy. Efficiency of PrPsc formation is determined by polymorphisms in the PrP-coding sequence. This article adds to previous data of natural sheep scrapie, concentrating on the effect of host genotype and age on PrPsc accumulation patterns during preclinical and clinical disease. Two entire scrapie-infected, predominantly Suffolk-cross, sheep flocks euthanized for regulatory purposes were genotyped and analyzed for PrPsc deposition in various tissues using single- and dual-label immunohistochemistry. Scrapie, as defined by PrPsc deposition, occurred in 13/80 sheep. Preclinical disease was evident in nearly 70% of infected sheep, ranging in age from 14 months to 7 years. PrPsc accumulated systemically in the nervous tissue, various lymphoid tissues, both alimentary tract related and non-alimentary tract related, and the placenta. Clinical neurological illness was always associated with spongiform encephalopathy and PrPsc deposition in the brain. Only 6 of 9 sheep with preclinical scrapie had PrPsc deposition in the brain but widespread PrPsc deposition in peripheral lymphoid tissue, supporting previous data showing peripheral PrPsc accumulation preceding deposition in the brain. PrPsc colocalized with a marker for follicular dendritic cells throughout the lymphoid system. PrPsc also accumulated in the peripheral nervous system, particularly the nervous supply of the gastrointestinal tract. Abundant PrPsc was evident in trophoblast cells of placentomes but not in the endometrium, myometrium, or associated nervous plexus. PrPsc deposits were not observed in the mammary parenchyma or bone marrow. Scrapie susceptibility was defined genetically by PrP codon 171: PrPsc deposition was restricted to PrP genotype AA136RR154QQ171 in 12/13 cases or AV136RR154QQ171 in 1/13 cases. The earliest accumulation was observed in the single VRQ/ARQ heterozygous animal, consistent with the reported high scrapie susceptibility and brief incubation period observed in breeds with predominance of the V136R154Q171 allele. Disease occurred within, as well as independent of, mother-daughter lines, suggesting both maternal and nonmaternal transmission in the flocks.

Environmental sources of prion transmission in mule deer

Whether transmission of the chronic wasting disease (CWD) prion among cervids requires direct interaction with infected animals has been unclear. We report that CWD can be transmitted to susceptible animals indirectly, from environments contaminated by excreta or decomposed carcasses. Under experimental conditions, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) became infected in two of three paddocks containing naturally infected deer, in two of three paddocks where infected deer carcasses had decomposed in situ =1.8 years earlier, and in one of three paddocks where infected deer had last resided 2.2 years earlier. Indirect transmission and environmental persistence of infectious prions will complicate efforts to control CWD and perhaps other animal prion diseases.

A generic spreadsheet model of a disease epidemic with application to the first 100 days of the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK

A generic, stochastic spreadsheet model was developed to calculate the number of cases within the first 100 days of a propagating epidemic and with the ability to incorporate generic control measures. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics were simulated with a range of assumptions about the number of cases incubating the disease on day 1 and the efficiency of control measures. Particularly severe epidemics resulted from scenarios with low efficiency of control measures and high numbers incubating. Control measures that prevented 0.8 of cases from resulting in new cases were able to reduce substantially the cumulative number of cases. The results of various scenarios using the model were compared to the number of cases of FMD in the first 100 days of the 2001 outbreak in the UK, with specific reference to cases in Cumbria and Anglesey. Potential practical and educational applications of the model are discussed.

Epidemiological implications of the susceptibility to BSE of putatively resistant sheep

The experimental infection of sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) by the oral route and the likelihood that sheep were fed BSE-infected meat and bone meal has led to extensive speculation as to whether or not sheep are naturally infected with BSE. In response, the UK government has initiated the National Scrapie Plan (NSP), an ambitious £120 million per year project to create a BSE- and scrapie-resistant national sheep flock, by selectively breeding for a genotype of sheep believed to be resistant to both diseases. This genotype has recently been shown to be susceptible to BSE by intracerebral (i.c.) inoculation. Should these sheep be sufficiently susceptible to BSE via natural transmission, the NSP might fail. Here we estimate the susceptibility of this genotype to horizontal (sheep-to-sheep) transmission of BSE by comparison with more extensive oral and i.c. exposure data for other sheep genotypes. We show that a previous estimate of the risk of BSE transmission to sheep via the feedborne route remains robust. However, using a mathematical model for the within-flock transmission of BSE, we show that, while the best estimate indicates that the NSP should be successful, current data cannot exclude the failure of the NSP.

Prevalence of scrapie infection in Great Britain: interpreting the results of the 1997-1998 abattoir survey

An accurate estimate of the prevalence of scrapie infection in the Great Britain (GB) sheep flock is essential when assessing any potential risk to human health through exposure to sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs). One method for assessing the prevalence is to sample sheep intended for human consumption using a diagnostic test capable of detecting infected animals prior to the onset of clinical signs. An abattoir survey conducted in Great Britain in 1997-1998 tested brain samples from 2809 apparently healthy sheep of which none was found to be positive for scrapie by histopathology or immunohistochemistry (IHC) although 10 were positive for scrapie-associated fibrils (SAF). Subsequently, the tonsils from a subset of the animals sampled were examined using IHC, one of which tested positive. To interpret these results we use a likelihood-based approach, which accounts for the variation in the prevalence of infection with age and test sensitivity and specificity with stage of infection. Combining the results for all of the diagnostic tests yields an estimate of the prevalence of scrapie infection in the GB sheep flock of 0.22% (95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.97%). Moreover, our analysis suggests that all of the diagnostic tests used are very specific (greater than 99%). Indeed, only SAF detection yields a specificity estimate of less than 100%, which helps to account for the high number of samples found to be positive for SAF.

Prion disease: horizontal prion transmission in mule deer

Epidemics of contagious prion diseases can be perpetuated by horizontal (animal to animal) and maternal (dam to offspring, before or after birth) transmission, but the relative importance of each mechanism is unclear. Here we compare the incidence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) that is attributable to horizontal or maternal transmission. We find that horizontal transmission is remarkably efficient, producing a high incidence of disease (89%) in a cohort of deer in which maternal transmission was improbable. Our results indicate that horizontal transmission is likely to be important in sustaining CWD epidemics.

Assessing the efficacy of a ram-genotyping programme to reduce susceptibility to scrapie in Great Britain

Susceptibility to clinical scrapie is associated with polymorphisms in the PrP gene. The 'ARR' allele of this gene reduces susceptibility to clinical disease caused by all known strains of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) agent. The British government proposes to use a ram-genotyping scheme to breed genetic resistance to clinical scrapie into the national sheep population. We considered how best to target limited genotyping resources to achieve the maximum rate of genotype evolution. We created a metapopulation model of the British sheep industry, which includes the major pure-breeds of sheep and the cross-breeds produced by crossing these pure-bred animals. The main criterion for assessing the efficacy of different strategies was the time taken to increase the prevalence of the ARR allele in the slaughter-lamb population. Our model predicted that the most-effective strategy would be to target genotyping to those rams used for pure-breeding (i.e. mated with the same breed of ewe). This strategy was compared to two further strategies, in which the proportion of rams genotyped in each breed depended on the prevalence of the ARR/ARR genotype in that breed. A policy in which the proportion of animals genotyped is reduced as the ARR prevalence in that breed increases is efficient. The most-effective policy was targeting the hill sector in the early years and gradually switching to genotyping more terminal-sire and longwool rams as the resistance of the hill sector increases.

A centuries-long epidemic of scrapie in British sheep?

The apparent persistence of scrapie in British sheep for more than 250 years is difficult to explain. Susceptibility to scrapie is associated with particular alleles at a single locus, the PrP gene. As the only known effect of these alleles is to confer susceptibility to a fatal disease, natural selection is expected to reduce their frequency, as has been observed in practice during scrapie outbreaks in single sheep flocks. Susceptibility alleles, and hence scrapie itself, are therefore expected to become rare, yet the disease remains widespread. We suggest that the paradox of scrapie's persistence can be explained by the exceptionally long time-scales inherent in the epidemiology of the disease. It is proposed that scrapie should be regarded as epidemic in British sheep but, unlike more familiar epidemics, which have time-scales of months or years, the scrapie epidemic has a time-scale of centuries. This interpretation implies that scrapie should eventually disappear from the sheep population.

The transmission dynamics of the aetiological agent of scrapie in a sheep flock

We formulate and investigate the properties of a model framework to mimic the transmission dynamics of the aetiological agent of scrapie in a sheep flock. We derive expressions for summary parameters that characterize transmission scenarios, notably the basic reproduction number R(0) and the mean generation time T(g). The timescale of epidemic outbreaks is expressed in terms of R(0) and cumulants of the generation time distribution. We discuss the relative contributions to the overall rate of transmission of horizontal and vertical routes during invasion and in endemicity. Simplified models are used to obtain analytical insight into the characteristics of the endemic state.

Descriptive epidemiology of scrapie in Great Britain: results of a postal survey

In 1998, a questionnaire was sent to 11,554 British sheep farmers to determine how many believed that scrapie cases had occurred in their flock; 61.4 per cent of them responded anonymously. The results indicated that 14.9 per cent of farmers with more than 30 breeding ewes thought that they had ever experienced scrapie in their flock and 2.7 per cent thought that they had had cases in the past 12 months. A comparison of these results with the number of farmers reporting suspect scrapie cases to MAFF, in accordance with the statutory requirement, suggests that only 13 per cent of farmers who suspect that they may have cases of scrapie are currently reporting them. Scrapie occurred in all regions of the country but there was an apparent regional variation. Larger farms and those with purebred sheep appeared to be at greater risk of having cases. Other differences between affected and unaffected farms included lambing practices and sheep purchasing policy. On the majority of farms the first case occurred in a purchased animal. The survey also revealed a need for the provision of further information about scrapie to farmers.

The basic reproduction number for scrapie

The basic reproduction number R0 provides a quantitative assessment of the ability of an infectious agent to invade a susceptible host population. A mathematical expression for R0 is derived based on a recently developed model for the spread of scrapie through a flock of sheep. The model incorporates sheep demography, a long and variable incubation period, genetic variation in susceptibility to scrapie, and horizontal and vertical routes of transmission. The sensitivity of R0 to a range of epidemiologically important parameters is assessed and the effects of genetic variation in susceptibility are examined. A reduction in the frequency of the susceptibility allele reduces R0 most effectively when the allele is recessive, whereas inbreeding may increase R0 when the allele is recessive, increasing the chance of an outbreak. Using this formulation, R0 is calculated for an outbreak of scrapie in a flock of Cheviot sheep.

Population dynamics of scrapie in a sheep flock

A detailed analysis of an outbreak of natural scrapie in a flock of Cheviot sheep is described. A total of 137 cases was reported over 13 years among 1307 sheep born into the flock. The epidemiology of scrapie can only be understood with reference to sheep demography, the population genetics of susceptibility to scrapie, pathogenesis during a long incubation period, and the rate of transmission (by both vertical and horizontal routes), all of which interact in complex ways. A mathematical model incorporating these features is described, parameter values and model inputs are derived from available information from the flock and from independent sources, and model outputs are compared with the field data. The model is able to reproduce key features of the outbreak, including its long duration and the ages of cases. The analysis supports earlier work suggesting that many infected sheep do not survive to show clinical signs, that most cases arise through horizontal transmission, and that there is strong selection against susceptible genotypes. However, important aspects of scrapie epidemiology remain poorly understood, including the possible role of carrier genotypes and of an environmental reservoir of infectivity, and the mechanisms maintaining alleles giving susceptibility to scrapie in the sheep population.

Estimation of the basic reproduction number of BSE: the intensity of transmission in British cattle

The basic reproduction number, R0, of an infectious agent is a key factor determining the rate of spread and the proportion of the host population affected. We formulate a general mathematical framework to describe the transmission dynamics of long incubation period diseases with complex pathogenesis. This is used to derive expressions for R0 of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in British cattle, and back-calculation methods are used to estimate R0 throughout the time-course of the BSE epidemic. We show that the 1988 meat and bonemeal ban was effective in rapidly reducing R0 below 1, and demonstrate that this indicates that BSE will be unable to become endemic in the UK cattle population even when case clustering is taken into account. The analysis provides some insight into absolute infectiousness for bovine-to-bovine transmission, indicating maximally infectious animals may have infected up to 400 animals each. The relationship between R0 and the early stages of the BSE epidemic and the requirements for additional research are also discussed.

A mathematical model of the dynamics of scrapie in a sheep flock

A mathematical model is developed for the dynamics of an outbreak of scrapie in a single sheep flock with the aim of assisting the interpretation of field data. The model incorporates age structure of the sheep population, both horizontal and vertical transmission, genetic predisposition to infection, variable initial load of the infectious agent, and increasing infection load during an incubation period of the same order as sheep life expectancy. This leads to system of partial differential equations with respect to time, age and infection load. Numerical analyses using this model demonstrate that a scrapie outbreak is likely to be of long duration (several decades), will lead to reduction of scrapie susceptible allele frequency (but not to zero), and has different dynamics in homozygous and heterozygous susceptible sheep, even if these genotypes are equally susceptible, due to the different contributions of vertical infection to transmission to genotypes.