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Rametov NM, Steiner M, Bizhanova NA, Abdel ZZ, Yessimseit DT, Abdeliyev BZ, Mussagalieva RS. Mapping Plague Risk Using Super Species Distribution Models and Forecasts for Rodents in the Zhambyl Region, Kazakhstan. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2023GH000853. [PMID: 37965638 PMCID: PMC10641984 DOI: 10.1029/2023gh000853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2023] [Revised: 10/21/2023] [Accepted: 10/24/2023] [Indexed: 11/16/2023]
Abstract
One of the most extensive natural plague centers, or foci, is located in Central Asia, in particular, the Zhambyl region in Southern Kazakhstan. Here, we conducted plague surveillance from 2000 to 2020 in the Zhambyl region in Kazakhstan and confirmed 3,072 cases of infected wild animals. We used Species Distribution Modeling by employing MaxEnt, and identified that the natural plague foci are primarily located in the Moiynqum, Betpaqdala, and Tauqum Deserts. The Zhambyl region's central part, including the Moiynqum and Sarysu districts, has a high potential risk of plague outbreak for the rural towns and villages. Since the phenomenon of climate change has been identified as a determinant that affects the rodent populations, thereby elevating the likelihood of an outbreak of plague, we investigated the potential dissemination routes of the disease under the changing climate conditions, thus creating Species Distribution Forecasts for the rodent species in southern part of Kazakhstan for the year 2100. By 2100, in case of increasing temperatures, the range of host species is likely to expand, leading to a higher risk of plague outbreaks. The highest risk of disease transmission can be expected at the outer limits of the modeled total distribution range, where infection rates are high, but antibody presence is low, making many species susceptible to the pathogen. To mitigate the risk of a potential plague outbreak, it is necessary to implement appropriate sanitary-epidemiological measures and climate mitigation policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- N. M. Rametov
- National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. AikimbaevAlmatyKazakhstan
- Institute of IonosphereAlmatyKazakhstan
- Department of Geospatial EngineeringSatpaev Kazakh National Research Technical UniversityAlmatyKazakhstan
| | - M. Steiner
- Department of Animal ScienceWageningen University and ResearchWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - N. A. Bizhanova
- Laboratory of TheriologyInstitute of ZoologyAlmatyKazakhstan
- Department of Biodiversity and BioresourcesAl‐Farabi Kazakh National UniversityAlmatyKazakhstan
- Wildlife Without Borders Public FundAlmatyKazakhstan
| | - Z. Zh. Abdel
- National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. AikimbaevAlmatyKazakhstan
| | - D. T. Yessimseit
- National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. AikimbaevAlmatyKazakhstan
| | - B. Z. Abdeliyev
- National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. AikimbaevAlmatyKazakhstan
| | - R. S. Mussagalieva
- National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. AikimbaevAlmatyKazakhstan
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2
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Xu L, Wang Q, Yang R, Ganbold D, Tsogbadrakh N, Dong K, Liu M, Altantogtokh D, Liu Q, Undrakhbold S, Boldgiv B, Liang W, Stenseth NC. Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China. Sci Rep 2023; 13:11906. [PMID: 37488160 PMCID: PMC10366125 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38966-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 07/26/2023] Open
Abstract
The incidence of plague has rebounded in the Americas, Asia, and Africa alongside rapid globalization and climate change. Previous studies have shown local climate to have significant nonlinear effects on plague dynamics among rodent communities. We analyzed an 18-year database of plague, spanning 1998 to 2015, in the foci of Mongolia and China to trace the associations between marmot plague and climate factors. Our results suggested a density-dependent effect of precipitation and a geographic location-dependent effect of temperature on marmot plague. That is, a significantly positive relationship was evident between risk of plague and precipitation only when the marmot density exceeded a certain threshold. The geographical heterogeneity of the temperature effect and the contrasting slopes of influence for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and other regions in the study (nQTP) were primarily related to diversity of climate and landscape types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lei Xu
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Qian Wang
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Ruifu Yang
- Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Dalantai Ganbold
- National Center for Zoonotic Diseases, Ulaanbaatar, 211137, Mongolia
| | | | - Kaixing Dong
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Min Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China
| | | | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changping, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Sainbileg Undrakhbold
- Professional Biological Society of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, 14201, Mongolia
- Department of Biology, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, 14201, Mongolia
| | - Bazartseren Boldgiv
- Department of Biology, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, 14201, Mongolia.
| | - Wannian Liang
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
| | - Nils Chr Stenseth
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
- The Centre for Pandemics and One-Health Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
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3
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Fell HG, Jones M, Atkinson S, Stenseth NC, Algar AC. The role of reservoir species in mediating plague's dynamic response to climate. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2023; 10:230021. [PMID: 37206964 PMCID: PMC10189594 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.230021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
The distribution and transmission of Yersinia pestis, the bacterial agent of plague, responds dynamically to climate, both within wildlife reservoirs and human populations. The exact mechanisms mediating plague's response to climate are still poorly understood, particularly across large environmentally heterogeneous regions encompassing several reservoir species. A heterogeneous response to precipitation was observed in plague intensity across northern and southern China during the Third Pandemic. This has been attributed to the response of reservoir species in each region. We use environmental niche modelling and hindcasting methods to test the response of a broad range of reservoir species to precipitation. We find little support for the hypothesis that the response of reservoir species to precipitation mediated the impact of precipitation on plague intensity. We instead observed that precipitation variables were of limited importance in defining species niches and rarely showed the expected response to precipitation across northern and southern China. These findings do not suggest that precipitation-reservoir species dynamics never influence plague intensity but that instead, the response of reservoir species to precipitation across a single biome cannot be assumed and that limited numbers of reservoir species may have a disproportional impact upon plague intensity.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Matthew Jones
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK
| | - Steve Atkinson
- Centre for Biomolecular Sciences, Nottingham University, Nottingham NG7 2JE, UK
| | - Nils Christian Stenseth
- Department of Biosciences, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, Oslo 0316, Norway
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Adam C. Algar
- Department of Biology, Lakehead University, Ontario P7B 5E1, Canada
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4
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Li H, Liang Y, Dong L, Li C, Zhang L, Wang B, Ma D, Mu Q, Wang J, Hou H, Liu Q. Predicting global potential distribution of Peromyscopsylla hesperomys and Orchopeas sexdentatus and risk assessment for invading China under climate change. Front Public Health 2023; 10:1018327. [PMID: 36684875 PMCID: PMC9850084 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1018327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Peromyscopsylla hesperomys and Orchopeas sexdentatus are regarded to be representative plague vectors in the United States. The incidence of plague is rising globally, possibly due to climate change and environmental damage. Environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of plague vectors. Methods Maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) were utilized to predict the distributions of these two fleas and their trends into the future. The main environmental factors influencing the distribution of these two fleas were analyzed. A risk assessment system was constructed to calculate the invasion risk values of the species. Results Temperature has a significant effect on the distribution of the potentially suitable areas for P. hesperomys and O. sexdentatus. They have the potential to survive in suitable areas of China in the future. The risk assessment system indicated that the risk level for the invasion of these two species into China was moderate. Conclusion In order to achieve early detection, early interception, and early management, China should perfect its monitoring infrastructure and develop scientific prevention and control strategies to prevent the invasion of foreign flea vectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongyun Li
- School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, China
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Ying Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Li Dong
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Cancan Li
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Lu Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Bin Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Jiamusi University, Jiamusi, China
| | - Delong Ma
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Shizhong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China
| | - Qunzheng Mu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Haifeng Hou
- School of Public Health and The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, Taian, China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China
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5
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No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2209816119. [PMID: 36508668 PMCID: PMC9907128 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2209816119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th-8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338-1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported "natural plague reservoirs". We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.
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6
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Nilsson P, Ravinet M, Cui Y, Berg PR, Zhang Y, Guo R, Luo T, Song Y, Trucchi E, Hoff SNK, Lv R, Schmid BV, Easterday WR, Jakobsen KS, Stenseth NC, Yang R, Jentoft S. Polygenic plague resistance in the great gerbil uncovered by population sequencing. PNAS NEXUS 2022; 1:pgac211. [PMID: 36712379 PMCID: PMC9802093 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2022] [Revised: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 09/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Pathogens can elicit high selective pressure on hosts, potentially altering genetic diversity over short evolutionary timescales. Intraspecific variation in immune response is observable as variable survivability from specific infections. The great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is a rodent plague host with a heterogenic but highly resistant phenotype. Here, we investigate the genomic basis for plague-resistant phenotypes by exposing wild-caught great gerbils to plague (Yersinia pestis). Whole genome sequencing of 10 survivors and 10 moribund individuals revealed a subset of genomic regions showing elevated differentiation. Gene ontology analysis of candidate genes in these regions demonstrated enrichment of genes directly involved in immune functions, cellular metabolism and the regulation of apoptosis as well as pathways involved in transcription, translation, and gene regulation. Transcriptomic analysis revealed that the early activated great gerbil immune response to plague consisted of classical components of the innate immune system. Our approach combining challenge experiments with transcriptomics and population level sequencing, provides new insight into the genetic background of plague-resistance and confirms its complex nature, most likely involving multiple genes and pathways of both the immune system and regulation of basic cellular functions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pernille Nilsson
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, 0371 Oslo, Norway
| | | | | | | | | | - Rong Guo
- Xinjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Urumqi 830002, China
| | - Tao Luo
- Xinjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Urumqi 830002, China
| | - Yajun Song
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China
| | - Emiliano Trucchi
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University, Via Brecce Bianche, 60131 Ancona, Italy
| | - Siv N K Hoff
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, 0371 Oslo, Norway
| | - Ruichen Lv
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China
| | - Boris V Schmid
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, 0371 Oslo, Norway
| | - W Ryan Easterday
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, 0371 Oslo, Norway
| | | | | | - Ruifu Yang
- To whom correspondence should be addressed:
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7
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Molina-Guzmán LP, Gutiérrez-Builes LA, Ríos-Osorio LA. Models of spatial analysis for vector-borne diseases studies: A systematic review. Vet World 2022; 15:1975-1989. [PMID: 36313837 PMCID: PMC9615510 DOI: 10.14202/vetworld.2022.1975-1989] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2022] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and Aim: Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) constitute a global problem for humans and animals. Knowledge related to the spatial distribution of various species of vectors and their relationship with the environment where they develop is essential to understand the current risk of VBDs and for planning surveillance and control strategies in the face of future threats. This study aimed to identify models, variables, and factors that may influence the emergence and resurgence of VBDs and how these factors can affect spatial local and global distribution patterns.
Materials and Methods: A systematic review was designed based on identification, screening, selection, and inclusion described in the research protocols according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guide. A literature search was performed in PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and SciELO using the following search strategy: Article type: Original research, Language: English, Publishing period: 2010–2020, Search terms: Spatial analysis, spatial models, VBDs, climate, ecologic, life cycle, climate variability, vector-borne, vector, zoonoses, species distribution model, and niche model used in different combinations with "AND" and "OR."
Results: The complexity of the interactions between climate, biotic/abiotic variables, and non-climate factors vary considerably depending on the type of disease and the particular location. VBDs are among the most studied types of illnesses related to climate and environmental aspects due to their high disease burden, extended presence in tropical and subtropical areas, and high susceptibility to climate and environment variations.
Conclusion: It is difficult to generalize our knowledge of VBDs from a geospatial point of view, mainly because every case is inherently independent in variable selection, geographic coverage, and temporal extension. It can be inferred from predictions that as global temperatures increase, so will the potential trend toward extreme events. Consequently, it will become a public health priority to determine the role of climate and environmental variations in the incidence of infectious diseases. Our analysis of the information, as conducted in this work, extends the review beyond individual cases to generate a series of relevant observations applicable to different models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Licet Paola Molina-Guzmán
- Grupo Biología de Sistemas, Escuela de Ciencias de la Salud, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Medellín, Colombia; Grupo de Investigación Salud y Sostenibilidad, Escuela de Microbiología, Universidad de Antioquia UdeA, Calle 70 No. 52-21, Medellin - Colombia
| | - Lina A. Gutiérrez-Builes
- Grupo Biología de Sistemas, Escuela de Ciencias de la Salud, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Leonardo A. Ríos-Osorio
- Grupo de Investigación Salud y Sostenibilidad, Escuela de Microbiología, Universidad de Antioquia UdeA, Calle 70 No. 52-21, Medellin - Colombia
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8
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Carlson CJ, Bevins SN, Schmid BV. Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:753-769. [PMID: 34796590 PMCID: PMC9299200 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15966] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2021] [Accepted: 09/04/2021] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high-elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long-term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs-with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places-and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin J. Carlson
- Center for Global Health Science and SecurityGeorgetown University Medical CenterWashingtonDistrict of ColumbiaUSA
| | - Sarah N. Bevins
- US Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service–Wildlife Services National Wildlife Research CenterFort CollinsColoradoUSA
| | - Boris V. Schmid
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary SynthesisDepartment of BiosciencesUniversity of OsloOsloNorway
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9
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Wu JY, Guo C, Xia Y, Bao HM, Zhu YS, Guo ZM, Wei YH, Lu JH. Genomic characterization of Wenzhou mammarenavirus detected in wild rodents in Guangzhou City, China. One Health 2021; 13:100273. [PMID: 34179329 PMCID: PMC8214141 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Revised: 05/30/2021] [Accepted: 05/30/2021] [Indexed: 10/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Wenzhou mammarenavirus (WENV) is a zoonotic pathogen newly discovered in east and southeast Asia. WENV has been found in wild rodent animals around the world while its standing is barely understood in Guangzhou city, where is known as a region of outbreak hotspot for zoonotic emerging infectious diseases. To investigate the prevalence and genomic characteristics of mammarenavirus in Guangzhou City, lung tissue samples from wild rodent species were collected from five districts of Guangzhou City in the year 2015 and 2016. The viral RNA was extracted and then subjected to mammarenavirus-specific PCR. The result revealed approximately 1.0% (3/306) nucleic acid positivity for lung tissue samples obtained from three rodent species: Mus musculus, Rattus flavipectus, and Rattus norvegicus. Viral metagenomic sequencing of three samples was then carried out and two full segment L and three full segment S sequences were obtained. Phylogenetics analysis indicated the sequences of the new mammarenavirus strain have 76.2% - 94.4% similarity to known WENV encoded genes, with the highest similarity to the WENV 9-24 strain. Population structure analysis grouped all known WENV into seven lineages, and this WENV Guangzhou strain was grouped with WENV 9-24 as well. Though the seroprevalence result was not available, our data provides the first nucleic acid evidence of circulating WENV in Guangzhou city, and it suggested WENV had a broader host tropism than previously known.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian-Yong Wu
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Cheng Guo
- Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York 10032, USA
| | - Yao Xia
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.,Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Acadamy of Sciences, Kunming 650201, China
| | - Hui-Min Bao
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Yan-Shan Zhu
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Zhong-Min Guo
- Laboratory Animal Center, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Yue-Hong Wei
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
| | - Jia-Hai Lu
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.,One Health Center of Excellence for Research & Training, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.,Key Laboratory for Tropical Disease Control of Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.,NMPA Key Laboratory for Quality Monitoring and Evaluation of Vaccines and Biological Products, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
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10
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Andreassen HP, Sundell J, Ecke F, Halle S, Haapakoski M, Henttonen H, Huitu O, Jacob J, Johnsen K, Koskela E, Luque-Larena JJ, Lecomte N, Leirs H, Mariën J, Neby M, Rätti O, Sievert T, Singleton GR, van Cann J, Vanden Broecke B, Ylönen H. Population cycles and outbreaks of small rodents: ten essential questions we still need to solve. Oecologia 2021; 195:601-622. [PMID: 33369695 PMCID: PMC7940343 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-020-04810-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2020] [Accepted: 11/19/2020] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Most small rodent populations in the world have fascinating population dynamics. In the northern hemisphere, voles and lemmings tend to show population cycles with regular fluctuations in numbers. In the southern hemisphere, small rodents tend to have large amplitude outbreaks with less regular intervals. In the light of vast research and debate over almost a century, we here discuss the driving forces of these different rodent population dynamics. We highlight ten questions directly related to the various characteristics of relevant populations and ecosystems that still need to be answered. This overview is not intended as a complete list of questions but rather focuses on the most important issues that are essential for understanding the generality of small rodent population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Harry P Andreassen
- Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Campus Evenstad, 2480, Koppang, Norway
| | - Janne Sundell
- Lammi Biological Station, University of Helsinki, Pääjärventie 320, 16900, Lammi, Finland
| | - Fraucke Ecke
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgränd, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Stefan Halle
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Dornburger Str. 159, 07743, Jena, Germany
| | - Marko Haapakoski
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, Konnevesi Research Station, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, 40014, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Heikki Henttonen
- Terrestrial Population Dynamics, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Otso Huitu
- Terrestrial Population Dynamics, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jens Jacob
- Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Vertebrate Research, Julius Kühn-Institut, Toppheideweg 88, 48161, Münster, Germany
| | - Kaja Johnsen
- Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Campus Evenstad, 2480, Koppang, Norway
| | - Esa Koskela
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, 40014, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Juan Jose Luque-Larena
- Departamento de Ciencias Agroforestales, Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenierıas Agrarias, Universidad de Valladolid, Campus La Yutera, Avenida de Madrid 44, 34004, Palencia, Spain
| | - Nicolas Lecomte
- Canada Research Chair in Polar and Boreal Ecology and Centre D'Études Nordiques, Department of Biology, Université de Moncton, 18 Avenue Antonine-Maillet, Moncton, NB, E1A 3E9, Canada
| | - Herwig Leirs
- Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitslain 1, 2610, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Joachim Mariën
- Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitslain 1, 2610, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Magne Neby
- Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Campus Evenstad, 2480, Koppang, Norway
| | - Osmo Rätti
- Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, P.O. Box 122, 96101, Rovaniemi, Finland
| | - Thorbjörn Sievert
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, Konnevesi Research Station, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, 40014, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Grant R Singleton
- International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Chatham Marine, Kent, ME4 4TB, UK
| | - Joannes van Cann
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, 40014, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Bram Vanden Broecke
- Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitslain 1, 2610, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Hannu Ylönen
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, Konnevesi Research Station, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, 40014, Jyväskylä, Finland.
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11
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Dash SP, Dipankar P, Burange PS, Rouse BT, Sarangi PP. Climate change: how it impacts the emergence, transmission, resistance and consequences of viral infections in animals and plants. Crit Rev Microbiol 2021; 47:307-322. [PMID: 33570448 DOI: 10.1080/1040841x.2021.1879006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has made us wonder what led to its occurrence and what can be done to avoid such events in the future. As we document, one changing circumstance that is resulting in the emergence and changing the expression of viral diseases in both plants and animals is climate change. Of note, the rapidly changing environment and weather conditions such as excessive flooding, droughts, and forest fires have raised concerns about the global ecosystem's security, sustainability, and balance. In this review, we discuss the main consequences of climate change and link these to how they impact the appearance of new viral pathogens, how they may facilitate transmission between usual and novel hosts, and how they may also affect the host's ability to manage the infection. We emphasize how changes in temperature and humidity and other events associated with climate change influence the reservoirs of viral infections, their transmission by insects and other intermediates, their survival outside the host as well the success of infection in plants and animals. We conclude that climate change has mainly detrimental consequences for the emergence, transmission, and outcome of viral infections and plead the case for halting and hopefully reversing this dangerous event.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shiba Prasad Dash
- Department of Biotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India
| | - Pankaj Dipankar
- Department of Biotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India
| | - Prasad S Burange
- Department of Entomology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, India
| | - Barry T Rouse
- Department of Biomedical and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Sciences, The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Pranita P Sarangi
- Department of Biotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India
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12
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Tennant WSD, Tildesley MJ, Spencer SEF, Keeling MJ. Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898-1949. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 287:20200538. [PMID: 32517609 PMCID: PMC7341932 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.0538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2020] [Accepted: 05/19/2020] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Warren S. D. Tennant
- The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Mike J. Tildesley
- The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Simon E. F. Spencer
- The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Matt J. Keeling
- The Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
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13
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Cui Y, Schmid BV, Cao H, Dai X, Du Z, Ryan Easterday W, Fang H, Guo C, Huang S, Liu W, Qi Z, Song Y, Tian H, Wang M, Wu Y, Xu B, Yang C, Yang J, Yang X, Zhang Q, Jakobsen KS, Zhang Y, Stenseth NC, Yang R. Evolutionary selection of biofilm-mediated extended phenotypes in Yersinia pestis in response to a fluctuating environment. Nat Commun 2020; 11:281. [PMID: 31941912 PMCID: PMC6962365 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-14099-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2018] [Accepted: 12/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Yersinia pestis is transmitted from fleas to rodents when the bacterium develops an extensive biofilm in the foregut of a flea, starving it into a feeding frenzy, or, alternatively, during a brief period directly after feeding on a bacteremic host. These two transmission modes are in a trade-off regulated by the amount of biofilm produced by the bacterium. Here by investigating 446 global isolated Y. pestis genomes, including 78 newly sequenced isolates sampled over 40 years from a plague focus in China, we provide evidence for strong selection pressures on the RNA polymerase ω-subunit encoding gene rpoZ. We demonstrate that rpoZ variants have an increased rate of biofilm production in vitro, and that they evolve in the ecosystem during colder and drier periods. Our results support the notion that the bacterium is constantly adapting-through extended phenotype changes in the fleas-in response to climate-driven changes in the niche.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujun Cui
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Boris V Schmid
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - Hanli Cao
- The Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, 830002, China
| | - Xiang Dai
- The Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, 830002, China
| | - Zongmin Du
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - W Ryan Easterday
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - Haihong Fang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Chenyi Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Shanqian Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Wanbing Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Zhizhen Qi
- Key Laboratory for Plague Prevention and Control of Qinghai Province, Qinghai Institute for Endemic Diseases Prevention and Control, Xining, 811602, China
| | - Yajun Song
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Min Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Yarong Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Bing Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Chao Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Jing Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Xianwei Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Qingwen Zhang
- Key Laboratory for Plague Prevention and Control of Qinghai Province, Qinghai Institute for Endemic Diseases Prevention and Control, Xining, 811602, China
| | - Kjetill S Jakobsen
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway.
| | - Yujiang Zhang
- The Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, 830002, China.
| | - Nils Chr Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway. .,Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
| | - Ruifu Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, 100071, China.
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14
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Yue RPH, Lee HF. Drought-induced spatio-temporal synchrony of plague outbreak in Europe. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 698:134138. [PMID: 31505345 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2019] [Revised: 08/16/2019] [Accepted: 08/26/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Plague synchronously swept across separated regions in Europe throughout history. However, the spatio-temporal synchrony of plague and its driving mechanism have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we transformed the historical European plague database spanned 1347-1800 CE into country-level time-series that differentiated large-scale plague outbreak from counted data. We found that there are 74 years in which two or more countries in our study region (UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy) experienced large-scale plague outbreak in the same year. Our Multivariate Ripley's K-function results showed that the onset year and the cessation year of large-scale plague outbreak are synchronized at the 0-23-year and 0-20-year windows, respectively. The temporal association between such synchrony and climatic forcing was further investigated using the Superposed Epoch Analysis, and drought was found to be responsible for the synchrony. Integrating our results with a literature survey, we suggested that prior to the peak of plague, the occurrence of drought and the subsequent reintroduced rainfall dampened both the rodent community and human society and boosted the number of fleas that carried plague. Such a synthesis facilitated the outbreak of plague. At the same time, high temperature associated with such drought also confined the geographic diffusion of the plague. Hence, although continental mega-drought could initiate the synchrony of plague outbreak, the synchrony actually consisted of a number of localized plague outbreak events scattering across different regions in Europe. According to the projected rising trend of drought in terms of its magnitude, duration, and geographic extent, the risk of synchrony of rodent-borne diseases in Europe will be significantly elevated, especially in France, Italy, and Spain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricci P H Yue
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong.
| | - Harry F Lee
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong.
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15
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Marquez JF, Lee AM, Aanes S, Engen S, Herfindal I, Salthaug A, Sæther B. Spatial scaling of population synchrony in marine fish depends on their life history. Ecol Lett 2019; 22:1787-1796. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.13360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2019] [Accepted: 06/29/2019] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Jonatan F. Marquez
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology 7491 Trondheim Norway
| | - Aline Magdalena Lee
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology 7491 Trondheim Norway
| | | | - Steinar Engen
- Department of Mathematical Sciences Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology 7491 Trondheim Norway
| | - Ivar Herfindal
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology 7491 Trondheim Norway
| | - Are Salthaug
- Institute of Marine Research Post box 1870 Nordnes 5817 Bergen Norway
| | - Bernt‐Erik Sæther
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology 7491 Trondheim Norway
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16
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Jones SD, Atshabar B, Schmid BV, Zuk M, Amramina A, Stenseth NC. Living with plague: Lessons from the Soviet Union's antiplague system. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:9155-9163. [PMID: 31061115 PMCID: PMC6511024 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1817339116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Zoonoses, such as plague, are primarily animal diseases that spill over into human populations. While the goal of eradicating such diseases is enticing, historical experience validates abandoning eradication in favor of ecologically based control strategies (which reduce morbidity and mortality to a locally accepted risk level). During the 20th century, one of the most extensive plague-eradication efforts in recorded history was undertaken to enable large-scale changes in land use in the former Soviet Union (including vast areas of central Asia). Despite expending tremendous resources in its attempt to eradicate plague, the Soviet antiplague response gradually abandoned the goal of eradication in favor of plague control linked with developing basic knowledge of plague ecology. Drawing from this experience, we combine new gray-literature sources, historical and recent research, and fieldwork to outline best practices for the control of spillover from zoonoses while minimally disrupting wildlife ecosystems, and we briefly compare the Soviet case with that of endemic plague in the western United States. We argue for the allocation of sufficient resources to maintain ongoing local surveillance, education, and targeted control measures; to incorporate novel technologies selectively; and to use ecological research to inform developing landscape-based models for transmission interruption. We conclude that living with emergent and reemergent zoonotic diseases-switching to control-opens wider possibilities for interrupting spillover while preserving natural ecosystems, encouraging adaptation to local conditions, and using technological tools judiciously and in a cost-effective way.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan D Jones
- Department of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108;
- Program in History of Science & Technology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Bakyt Atshabar
- M. Aikimbayev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Ministry of Public Health, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan
| | - Boris V Schmid
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-01316 Oslo, Norway
| | - Marlene Zuk
- Department of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Anna Amramina
- Program in History of Science & Technology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Nils Chr Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-01316 Oslo, Norway;
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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17
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Brekke TD, Supriya S, Denver MG, Thom A, Steele KA, Mulley JF. A high-density genetic map and molecular sex-typing assay for gerbils. Mamm Genome 2019; 30:63-70. [PMID: 30972478 PMCID: PMC6491409 DOI: 10.1007/s00335-019-09799-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2019] [Accepted: 03/29/2019] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
We constructed a high-density genetic map for Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus). We genotyped 137 F2 individuals with a genotype-by-sequencing (GBS) approach at over 10,000 loci and built the genetic map using a two-step approach. First, we chose the highest-quality set of 485 markers to construct a robust map of 1239 cM with 22 linkage groups as expected from the published karyotype. Second, we added an additional 5449 markers onto the map based on their genotype similarity with the original markers. We used the final marker set to assemble 1140 genomic scaffolds (containing ~ 20% of annotated genes) into a chromosome-level assembly. We used both genetic linkage and relative sequencing coverage in males and females to identify X- and Y-chromosome scaffolds and from these we designed a robust and internally-controlled PCR assay to determine sex. This assay will facilitate early stage sex-typing of embryonic and young gerbils which is difficult using current visual methods. Accession ID: Meriones unguiculatus: 10047.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas D Brekke
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK
| | - Sushmita Supriya
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK
| | - Megan G Denver
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK
| | - Angharad Thom
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK
| | - Katherine A Steele
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK
| | - John F Mulley
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK.
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18
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Yue RPH, Lee HF. Pre-industrial plague transmission is mediated by the synergistic effect of temperature and aridity index. BMC Infect Dis 2018; 18:134. [PMID: 29554882 PMCID: PMC5859406 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-018-3045-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2017] [Accepted: 03/13/2018] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Although the linkage between climate change and plague transmission has been proposed in previous studies, the dominant approach has been to address the linkage with traditional statistical methods, while the possible non-linearity, non-stationarity and low frequency domain of the linkage has not been fully considered. We seek to address the above issue by investigating plague transmission in pre-industrial Europe (AD1347–1760) at both continental and country levels. Methods We apply Granger Causality Analysis to identify the casual relationship between climatic variables and plague outbreaks. We then apply Wavelet Analysis to explore the non-linear and non-stationary association between climate change and plague outbreaks. Results Our results show that 5-year lagged temperature and aridity index are the significant determinants of plague outbreaks in pre-industrial Europe. At the multi-decadal time scale, there are more frequent plague outbreaks in a cold and arid climate. The synergy of temperature and aridity index, rather than their individual effect, is more imperative in driving plague outbreaks, which is valid at both the continental and country levels. Conclusions Plague outbreaks come after cold and dry spells. The multi-decadal climate variability is imperative in driving the cycles of plague outbreaks in pre-industrial Europe. The lagged and multi-decadal effect of climate change on plague outbreaks may be attributable to the complexity of ecological, social, or climate systems, through which climate exerts its influence on plague dynamics. These findings may contribute to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of plague and other rodent-borne or flea-borne infectious diseases in human history. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3045-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricci P H Yue
- Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong.
| | - Harry F Lee
- Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong. .,International Center for China Development Studies, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong.
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19
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Using Satellite Data for the Characterization of Local Animal Reservoir Populations of Hantaan Virus on the Weihe Plain, China. REMOTE SENSING 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/rs9101076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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20
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Yue RPH, Lee HF, Wu CYH. Trade routes and plague transmission in pre-industrial Europe. Sci Rep 2017; 7:12973. [PMID: 29021541 PMCID: PMC5636801 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-13481-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2017] [Accepted: 09/26/2017] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Numerous historical works have mentioned that trade routes were to blame for the spread of plague in European history, yet this relationship has never been tested by quantitative evidence. Here, we resolve the hypothetical role of trade routes through statistical analysis on the geo-referenced major trade routes in the early modern period and the 6,656 geo-referenced plague outbreak records in AD1347-1760. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation results show that major trade routes played a dominant role in spreading plague in pre-industrial Europe. Furthermore, the negative correlation between plague outbreaks and their distance from major trade ports indicates the absence of a permanent plague focus in the inland areas of Europe. Major trade routes decided the major plague outbreak hotspots, while navigable rivers determined the geographic pattern of sporadic plague cases. A case study in Germany indicates that plague penetrated further into Europe through the local trade route network. Based on our findings, we propose the mechanism of plague transmission in historical Europe, which is imperative in demonstrating how pandemics were spread in recent human history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricci P H Yue
- Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Harry F Lee
- Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
- International Center for China Development Studies, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Connor Y H Wu
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Virginia-Maryland College of Veterinary Medicine, Virginia Tech, Virginia, USA
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21
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Tian H, Yu P, Bjørnstad ON, Cazelles B, Yang J, Tan H, Huang S, Cui Y, Dong L, Ma C, Ma C, Zhou S, Laine M, Wu X, Zhang Y, Wang J, Yang R, Stenseth NC, Xu B. Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. PLoS Pathog 2017; 13:e1006198. [PMID: 28141833 PMCID: PMC5302841 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1006198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2016] [Revised: 02/10/2017] [Accepted: 01/23/2017] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public health in the 21st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid changes. We have used a three-decade-long field study on hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was closely linked to environmental fluctuations at the human-wildlife interface. We reveal that environmental forcing, especially rainfall and resource availability, exert important cascading effects on intra-annual variability in the wildlife reservoir dynamics, leading to epidemics that shift between stable and chaotic regimes. Our models demonstrate that bimodal seasonal epidemics result from a powerful seasonality in transmission, generated from interlocking cycles of agricultural phenology and rodent behavior driven by the rainy seasons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Pengbo Yu
- Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Ottar N. Bjørnstad
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania
| | - Bernard Cazelles
- Ecologie & Evolution, UMR 7625, UPMC-ENS, Paris, France
- UMMISCO UMI 209 IRD - UPMC, Bondy, France
| | - Jing Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Hua Tan
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Shanqian Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Yujun Cui
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China
| | - Lu Dong
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Chaofeng Ma
- Xi’an Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Changan Ma
- Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Sen Zhou
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Marko Laine
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Xiaoxu Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Yanyun Zhang
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Jingjun Wang
- Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Ruifu Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China
| | - Nils Chr. Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of OsloBlindern, Oslo, Norway
| | - Bing Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
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22
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Laperrière V, Brugger K, Rubel F. Cross-scale modeling of a vector-borne disease, from the individual to the metapopulation: The seasonal dynamics of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.09.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
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23
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Eads DA, Biggins DE, Xu L, Liu Q. Plague cycles in two rodent species from China: dry years might provide context for epizootics in wet years. Ecosphere 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1495] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- David A. Eads
- U. S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado 80526 USA
- Department of Biology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado 80523 USA
| | - Dean E. Biggins
- U. S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center Fort Collins Colorado 80526 USA
- Department of Biology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado 80523 USA
| | - Lei Xu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Changping Beijing 102206 China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Changping Beijing 102206 China
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Manlove K. Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics. Ecology 2016; 97:2593-2602. [PMID: 27859120 PMCID: PMC5116922 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2016] [Revised: 06/08/2016] [Accepted: 06/22/2016] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kezia Manlove
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, 208 Mueller Lab, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802
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Effects of habitat and livestock on nest productivity of the Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii in Bukhara Province, Uzbekistan. EUR J WILDLIFE RES 2016. [DOI: 10.1007/s10344-016-1018-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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26
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Yang R, Cui Y, Bi Y. Perspectives on Yersinia pestis: A Model for Studying Zoonotic Pathogens. ADVANCES IN EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2016; 918:377-391. [PMID: 27722871 DOI: 10.1007/978-94-024-0890-4_14] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Yersinia pestis is a typical zoonotic bacterial pathogen. The following reasons make this pathogen a model for studying zoonotic pathogens: (1) Its unique lifestyle makes Y. pestis an ideal model for studying host-vector-environment-pathogen interactions; (2) population diversity characters in Y. pestis render it a model species for studying monomorphic bacterial evolution; (3) the pathogenic features of bacteria provide us with good opportunities to study human immune responses; (4) typical animal and vector models of Y. pestis infection create opportunities for experimental studies on pathogenesis and evolution; and (5) repeated pandemics and local outbreaks provide us with clues about the infectious disease outbreaks that have occurred in human history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruifu Yang
- Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, No. 20, Dongdajie, Fengtai, Beijing, 100071, China.
| | - Yujun Cui
- Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, No. 20, Dongdajie, Fengtai, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Yujing Bi
- Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, No. 20, Dongdajie, Fengtai, Beijing, 100071, China
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Dubyanskiy VM, Yeszhanov AB. Ecology of Yersinia pestis and the Epidemiology of Plague. ADVANCES IN EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2016; 918:101-170. [PMID: 27722862 DOI: 10.1007/978-94-024-0890-4_5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
This chapter summarizes information about the natural foci of plague in the world. We describe the location, main hosts, and vectors of Yersinia pestis. The ecological features of the hosts and vectors of plague are listed, including predators - birds and mammals and their role in the epizootic. The epizootic process in plague and the factors affecting the dynamics of epizootic activity of natural foci of Y. pestis are described in detail. The mathematical models of the epizootic process in plague and predictive models are briefly described. The most comprehensive list of the hosts and vectors of Y. pestis in the world is presented as well.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Aidyn B Yeszhanov
- M. Aikimbayev Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan
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Bramanti B, Stenseth NC, Walløe L, Lei X. Plague: A Disease Which Changed the Path of Human Civilization. ADVANCES IN EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2016; 918:1-26. [PMID: 27722858 DOI: 10.1007/978-94-024-0890-4_1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Plague caused by Yersinia pestis is a zoonotic infection, i.e., it is maintained in wildlife by animal reservoirs and on occasion spills over into human populations, causing outbreaks of different entities. Large epidemics of plague, which have had significant demographic, social, and economic consequences, have been recorded in Western European historical documents since the sixth century. Plague has remained in Europe for over 1400 years, intermittently disappearing, yet it is not clear if there were reservoirs for Y. pestis in Western Europe or if the pathogen was rather reimported on different occasions from Asian reservoirs by human agency. The latter hypothesis thus far seems to be the most plausible one, as it is sustained by both ecological and climatological evidence, helping to interpret the phylogeny of this bacterium.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara Bramanti
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
| | - Nils Chr Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Lars Walløe
- Department of Physiology, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Xu Lei
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 102206, Changping, Beijing, People's Republic of China
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Levick B, Laudisoit A, Wilschut L, Addink E, Ageyev V, Yeszhanov A, Sapozhnikov V, Belayev A, Davydova T, Eagle S, Begon M. The Perfect Burrow, but for What? Identifying Local Habitat Conditions Promoting the Presence of the Host and Vector Species in the Kazakh Plague System. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0136962. [PMID: 26325073 PMCID: PMC4556633 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0136962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2014] [Accepted: 08/10/2015] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The wildlife plague system in the Pre-Balkhash desert of Kazakhstan has been a subject of study for many years. Much progress has been made in generating a method of predicting outbreaks of the disease (infection by the gram negative bacterium Yersinia pestis) but existing methods are not yet accurate enough to inform public health planning. The present study aimed to identify characteristics of individual mammalian host (Rhombomys opimus) burrows related to and potentially predictive of the presence of R.opimus and the dominant flea vectors (Xenopsylla spp.). METHODS Over four seasons, burrow characteristics, their current occupancy status, and flea and tick burden of the occupants were recorded in the field. A second data set was generated of long term occupancy trends by recording the occupancy status of specific burrows over multiple occasions. Generalised linear mixed models were constructed to identify potential burrow properties predictive of either occupancy or flea burden. RESULTS At the burrow level, it was identified that a burrow being occupied by Rhombomys, and remaining occupied, were both related to the characteristics of the sediment in which the burrow was constructed. The flea burden of Rhombomys in a burrow was found to be related to the tick burden. Further larger scale properties were also identified as being related to both Rhombomys and flea presence, including latitudinal position and the season. CONCLUSIONS Therefore, in advancing our current predictions of plague in Kazakhstan, we must consider the landscape at this local level to increase our accuracy in predicting the dynamics of gerbil and flea populations. Furthermore this demonstrates that in other zoonotic systems, it may be useful to consider the distribution and location of suitable habitat for both host and vector species at this fine scale to accurately predict future epizootics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bethany Levick
- Ecology, Evolution and Genomics of Infectious Disease Research Group, Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Anne Laudisoit
- Ecology, Evolution and Genomics of Infectious Disease Research Group, Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Liesbeth Wilschut
- Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Elisabeth Addink
- Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Vladimir Ageyev
- M.Akimbayev’s Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan
| | - Aidyn Yeszhanov
- M.Akimbayev’s Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan
| | - Valerij Sapozhnikov
- M.Akimbayev’s Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan
| | - Alexander Belayev
- M.Akimbayev’s Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- Taldykorgan anti-plague station, Taldykorgan, Kazakhstan
| | - Tania Davydova
- Taldykorgan anti-plague station, Taldykorgan, Kazakhstan
| | - Sally Eagle
- Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Mike Begon
- Ecology, Evolution and Genomics of Infectious Disease Research Group, Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
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31
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Heier L, Viljugrein H, Storvik GO. Persistence of plague outbreaks among great gerbils in Kazakhstan: effects of host population dynamics. POPUL ECOL 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-015-0500-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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32
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Luis AD, Douglass RJ, Mills JN, Bjørnstad ON. Environmental fluctuations lead to predictability in Sin Nombre hantavirus outbreaks. Ecology 2015. [DOI: 10.1890/14-1910.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2015; 112:3020-5. [PMID: 25713390 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1412887112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.
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Kreppel KS, Caminade C, Telfer S, Rajerison M, Rahalison L, Morse A, Baylis M. A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2014; 8:e3155. [PMID: 25299064 PMCID: PMC4191945 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003155] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2013] [Accepted: 07/31/2014] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharina S. Kreppel
- LUCINDA group, Institute of Infection and Global Health, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, University of Liverpool, Neston, United Kingdom
| | - Cyril Caminade
- LUCINDA group, Institute of Infection and Global Health, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, University of Liverpool, Neston, United Kingdom
- Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, Merseyside, United Kingdom
| | - Sandra Telfer
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | | | - Lila Rahalison
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Bacterial Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Andy Morse
- Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, Merseyside, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew Baylis
- LUCINDA group, Institute of Infection and Global Health, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, University of Liverpool, Neston, United Kingdom
- Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Neston, United Kingdom
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Xu L, Stige LC, Kausrud KL, Ben Ari T, Wang S, Fang X, Schmid BV, Liu Q, Stenseth NC, Zhang Z. Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague. Proc Biol Sci 2014; 281:20133159. [PMID: 24523275 PMCID: PMC4027397 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.3159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2013] [Accepted: 01/21/2014] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lei Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Leif Chr. Stige
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Kyrre Linné Kausrud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Tamara Ben Ari
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Shuchun Wang
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic ofChina
| | - Xiye Fang
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic ofChina
| | - Boris V. Schmid
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic ofChina
| | - Nils Chr. Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Zhibin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China
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Zhang Z, Li Z, Tao Y, Chen M, Wen X, Xu L, Tian H, Stenseth NC. Relationship between increase rate of human plague in China and global climate index as revealed by cross-spectral and cross-wavelet analyses. Integr Zool 2013; 2:144-153. [PMID: 21396030 DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-4877.2007.00061.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Plague has caused the death of hundreds of millions of people throughout the human history. Today this disease is again re-emerging and hence is again becoming an increasing threat to human health in several parts of the world. However, impacts of global climate variation (e.g. El Nino and Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) and global warming on plagues are largely unknown. Using cross-spectral analysis and cross-wavelet analysis, we have analyzed the relationship between increase rate of human plague in China during 1871-2003 and the following climate factors (as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], Sea Surface Temperature of east Pacific equator [SST] and air Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere [NHT]). We found in the frequency domain that increase rate of human plague was closely associated with SOI and SST. Cross-spectral analysis reveals that significant coherencies between increase rate of human plague and ENSO were found over short periods (2-3 years), medium periods (6-7 years) and long periods (11-12 years, 30-40 years). Cross-wavelet analysis reveals that increase rate of human plague oscillates in phase with SOI, but in anti-phase with SST over periods of 2-4 years and approximately 8 years (6-10 years). These results indicate that ENSO-driven climate variation may be important for occurrences of human plague in China. However, there is a need for a further analysis of the underlying mechanism between human plague in China and ENSO.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhibin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaLaboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Atmosphere, College of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Zhenqing Li
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaLaboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Atmosphere, College of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Yi Tao
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaLaboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Atmosphere, College of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Min Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaLaboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Atmosphere, College of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Xinyu Wen
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaLaboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Atmosphere, College of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Lei Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaLaboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Atmosphere, College of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Huidong Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaLaboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Atmosphere, College of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Nils Chr Stenseth
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaLaboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaAcademy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Atmosphere, College of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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Luque-Larena JJ, Mougeot F, Viñuela J, Jareño D, Arroyo L, Lambin X, Arroyo B. Recent large-scale range expansion and outbreaks of the common vole (Microtus arvalis) in NW Spain. Basic Appl Ecol 2013. [DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2013.04.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Wu X, Tian H, Zhou S, Chen L, Xu B. Impact of global change on transmission of human infectious diseases. SCIENCE CHINA. EARTH SCIENCES 2013; 57:189-203. [PMID: 32288763 PMCID: PMC7104601 DOI: 10.1007/s11430-013-4635-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2013] [Accepted: 04/19/2013] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Global change, which refers to large-scale changes in the earth system and human society, has been changing the outbreak and transmission mode of many infectious diseases. Climate change affects infectious diseases directly and indirectly. Meteorological factors including temperature, precipitation, humidity and radiation influence infectious disease by modulating pathogen, host and transmission pathways. Meteorological disasters such as droughts and floods directly impact the outbreak and transmission of infectious diseases. Climate change indirectly impacts infectious diseases by altering the ecological system, including its underlying surface and vegetation distribution. In addition, anthropogenic activities are a driving force for climate change and an indirect forcing of infectious disease transmission. International travel and rural-urban migration are a root cause of infectious disease transmission. Rapid urbanization along with poor infrastructure and high disease risk in the rural-urban fringe has been changing the pattern of disease outbreaks and mortality. Land use changes, such as agricultural expansion and deforestation, have already changed the transmission of infectious disease. Accelerated air, road and rail transportation development may not only increase the transmission speed of outbreaks, but also enlarge the scope of transmission area. In addition, more frequent trade and other economic activities will also increase the potential risks of disease outbreaks and facilitate the spread of infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- XiaoXu Wu
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China
| | - HuaiYu Tian
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China
| | - Sen Zhou
- School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084 China
| | - LiFan Chen
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China
| | - Bing Xu
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China
- School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084 China
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39
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Climate change impacts population dynamics and distribution shift of moose (Alces alces) in Heilongjiang Province of China. Ecol Res 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s11284-013-1054-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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40
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Affiliation(s)
- Phyllis Kanki
- , Department of Immunology and Infectious, Harvard School of Public Health, Huntington Avenue 651, Boston, 02115 Massachusetts USA
| | - Darrell Jay Grimes
- , Department of Coastal Sciences, The University of Southern Mississippi, East Beach Drive 703, Ocean Springs, 39564 Mississippi USA
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Schmid BV, Jesse M, Wilschut LI, Viljugrein H, Heesterbeek JAP. Local persistence and extinction of plague in a metapopulation of great gerbil burrows, Kazakhstan. Epidemics 2012; 4:211-8. [PMID: 23351373 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2012.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2012] [Revised: 10/16/2012] [Accepted: 12/17/2012] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Speculation on how the bacterium Yersinia pestis re-emerges after years of absence in the Prebalkhash region in Kazakhstan has been ongoing for half a century, but the mechanism is still unclear. One of the theories is that plague persists in its reservoir host (the great gerbil) in so-called hotspots, i.e. small regions in which the conditions remain favourable for plague to persist during times where the conditions in the Prebalkhash region as a whole have become unfavourable for plague persistence. In this paper we use a metapopulation model that describes the dynamics of the great gerbil. With this model we study the minimum size of an individual hotspot and the combined size of multiple hotspots in the Prebalkhash region that would be required for Y. pestis to persist through an inter-epizootic period. We show that the combined area of hotspots required for plague persistence is so large that it would be unlikely to have been missed by existing plague surveillance. This suggests that persistence of plague in that region cannot solely be explained by the existence of hotspots, and therefore other hypotheses, such as survival in multiple host species, and persistence in fleas or in the soil should be considered as well.
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Affiliation(s)
- B V Schmid
- Utrecht University, The Netherlands; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, Norway.
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Rogozi E, Bego F, Papa A, Mersini K, Bino S. Distribution and ecology of small mammals in Albania. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH 2012; 23:258-268. [PMID: 22963015 DOI: 10.1080/09603123.2012.717917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
In order to gain an insight into the population dynamics and habitat preferences of rodents in Albania, small mammals were collected during 2006-2009 in various districts of the country. Of the 15 species of small mammals captured (12 in Rodentia and 3 in Insectivora order), the yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollis) was the most frequently collected, representing 50% of the 325 small mammals captured, followed by the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) (20.62%). Apodemus flavicollis is the primary reservoir for Dobrava-Belgrade virus which causes to humans hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome; the places with A. flavicollis abundance were those with records of the human disease. Knowledge of the reservoir ecology in a country facilitates risk assessments for rodent-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elton Rogozi
- Control of Infectious Diseases Department, Institute of Public Health, Tirana, Albania
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Association of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and weather factors in Junan County, China: a case-crossover study. Epidemiol Infect 2012; 141:697-705. [PMID: 22793368 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268812001434] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a type of vector-borne zoonosis sensitive to climate change. To explore the short-term effect of air temperature and amount of precipitation on HFRS incidence, a total of 13 722 clinically confirmed HFRS cases from January 1977 to December 2001 in Junan County, China were included in this study. According to symmetric bidirectional case-crossover design, the hazard period (the three calendar months preceding the month when the case was diagnosed) and the control period (the same calendar month of the year before and the year after the hazard period) matched and conditional logistic regression was used to examine the effect of monthly mean temperature and precipitation on the risk of HFRS. The results showed the facilitating climatic conditions for HFRS included: condition with moderate mean air temperature (10-25 °C) and abundant precipitation (>120 mm) 3 months before [odds ratio (OR) 1·346, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·191-1·522] and 2 months before (OR 1·193, 95% CI 1·063-1·339); and condition with temperature >25 °C and abundant precipitation (>120 mm) 3 months before (OR 1·17, 95% CI 1·004-1·363). Temperature of 10-25 °C and moderate precipitation (10-120 mm) in the current month was the most favourable condition for HFRS incidence.
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MacMillan K, Monaghan AJ, Apangu T, Griffith KS, Mead PS, Acayo S, Acidri R, Moore SM, Mpanga JT, Enscore RE, Gage KL, Eisen RJ. Climate predictors of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2012; 86:514-23. [PMID: 22403328 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
East Africa has been identified as a region where vector-borne and zoonotic diseases are most likely to emerge or re-emerge and where morbidity and mortality from these diseases is significant. Understanding when and where humans are most likely to be exposed to vector-borne and zoonotic disease agents in this region can aid in targeting limited prevention and control resources. Often, spatial and temporal distributions of vectors and vector-borne disease agents are predictable based on climatic variables. However, because of coarse meteorological observation networks, appropriately scaled and accurate climate data are often lacking for Africa. Here, we use a recently developed 10-year gridded meteorological dataset from the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model to identify climatic variables predictive of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda. Our logistic regression model revealed that within high elevation sites (above 1,300 m), plague risk was positively associated with rainfall during the months of February, October, and November and negatively associated with rainfall during the month of June. These findings suggest that areas that receive increased but not continuous rainfall provide ecologically conducive conditions for Yersinia pestis transmission in this region. This study serves as a foundation for similar modeling efforts of other vector-borne and zoonotic disease in regions with sparse observational meteorologic networks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine MacMillan
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado 80522, USA.
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Eisen RJ, Borchert JN, Mpanga JT, Atiku LA, MacMillan K, Boegler KA, Montenieri JA, Monaghan A, Gage KL. Flea diversity as an element for persistence of plague bacteria in an East African plague focus. PLoS One 2012; 7:e35598. [PMID: 22530057 PMCID: PMC3329458 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0035598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2012] [Accepted: 03/19/2012] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Plague is a flea-borne rodent-associated zoonotic disease that is caused by Yersinia pestis and characterized by long quiescent periods punctuated by rapidly spreading epidemics and epizootics. How plague bacteria persist during inter-epizootic periods is poorly understood, yet is important for predicting when and where epizootics are likely to occur and for designing interventions aimed at local elimination of the pathogen. Existing hypotheses of how Y. pestis is maintained within plague foci typically center on host abundance or diversity, but little attention has been paid to the importance of flea diversity in enzootic maintenance. Our study compares host and flea abundance and diversity along an elevation gradient that spans from low elevation sites outside of a plague focus in the West Nile region of Uganda (~725-1160 m) to higher elevation sites within the focus (~1380-1630 m). Based on a year of sampling, we showed that host abundance and diversity, as well as total flea abundance on hosts was similar between sites inside compared with outside the plague focus. By contrast, flea diversity was significantly higher inside the focus than outside. Our study highlights the importance of considering flea diversity in models of Y. pestis persistence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca J Eisen
- Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
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Baylis M, Risley C. Climate Change Effects on Infectious Diseases. Infect Dis (Lond) 2012. [DOI: 10.1007/978-1-0716-2463-0_524] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/10/2023] Open
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Gage KL. Factors Affecting the Spread and Maintenance of Plague. ADVANCES IN EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2012; 954:79-94. [DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-3561-7_11] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
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Investigation of the climatic and environmental context of Hendra virus spillover events 1994-2010. PLoS One 2011; 6:e28374. [PMID: 22145039 PMCID: PMC3228733 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0028374] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2011] [Accepted: 11/07/2011] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Hendra virus is a recently emerged bat-borne zoonotic agent with high lethality in horses and humans in Australia. This is a rare disease and the determinants of bat to horse transmission, including the factors that bring these hosts together at critical times, are poorly understood. In this cross-disciplinary study climatic and vegetation primary productivity variables are compared for the dispersed and heterogenic 1994-2010 outbreak sites. The significant occurrence of spillover events within the dry season (p = 0.013, 95% CI (0.57-0.98)) suggests seasonal forcing of transmission across species, or seasonal forcing of virus excretion by the reservoir host. We explore the evidence for both. Preliminary investigations of the spatial determinants of Hendra disease locations are also presented. We find that postal areas in the Australian state of Queensland in which pteropid fruit bat (flying fox) roosts occur are approximately forty times more likely (OR = 40.5, (95% CI (5.16, 317.52)) to be the location of Hendra spillover events. This appears to be independent of density of horses at these locations. We consider issues of scale of host resource use, land use change and limitations of existing data that challenge analysis and limit further conclusive outcomes. This investigation of a broad range of potential climatic and environmental influences provides a good base for future investigations. Further understanding of cross-species Hendra virus transmission requires better understanding of flying fox resource use in the urban-rural landscape.
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Ben Ari T, Neerinckx S, Gage KL, Kreppel K, Laudisoit A, Leirs H, Stenseth NC. Plague and climate: scales matter. PLoS Pathog 2011; 7:e1002160. [PMID: 21949648 PMCID: PMC3174245 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1002160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 101] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Plague is enzootic in wildlife populations of small mammals in central and eastern Asia, Africa, South and North America, and has been recognized recently as a reemerging threat to humans. Its causative agent Yersinia pestis relies on wild rodent hosts and flea vectors for its maintenance in nature. Climate influences all three components (i.e., bacteria, vectors, and hosts) of the plague system and is a likely factor to explain some of plague's variability from small and regional to large scales. Here, we review effects of climate variables on plague hosts and vectors from individual or population scales to studies on the whole plague system at a large scale. Upscaled versions of small-scale processes are often invoked to explain plague variability in time and space at larger scales, presumably because similar scale-independent mechanisms underlie these relationships. This linearity assumption is discussed in the light of recent research that suggests some of its limitations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tamara Ben Ari
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS UMR 7625, Paris, France
| | - Simon Neerinckx
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Kenneth L. Gage
- Bacterial Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Center of Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Katharina Kreppel
- Liverpool University Climate and Infectious Diseases of Animals Group (LUCINDA), Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Leahurst, Great Britain
| | - Anne Laudisoit
- Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Biology, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Herwig Leirs
- Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Biology, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Nils Chr. Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- * E-mail:
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Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2011; 108:14527-32. [PMID: 21856946 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1015946108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.
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