The influence of weather conditions during gestation on life histories in a wild Arctic ungulate

Using non-invasive behavioral and physiological data to measure biological age in wild baboons

Biological aging is near-ubiquitous in the animal kingdom, but its timing and pace vary between individuals and over lifespans. Prospective, individual-based studies of wild animals-especially non-human primates-help identify the social and environmental drivers of this variation by indicating the conditions and exposure windows that affect aging processes. However, measuring individual biological age in wild primates is challenging because several of the most promising methods require invasive sampling. Here, we leverage observational data on behavior and physiology, collected non-invasively from 319 wild female baboons across 2402 female-years of study, to develop a composite predictor of age: the non-invasive physiology and behavior (NPB) clock. We found that age predictions from the NPB clock explained 51% of the variation in females' known ages. Further, deviations from the clock's age predictions predicted female survival: females predicted to be older than their known ages had higher adult mortality. Finally, females who experienced harsh early-life conditions were predicted to be about 6 months older than those who grew up in more benign conditions. While the relationship between early adversity and NPB age is noisy, this estimate translates to a predicted 2-3 year reduction in mean adult lifespan in our model. A constraint of our clock is that it is tailored to data collection approaches implemented in our study population. However, many of the clock's components have analogs in other populations, suggesting that non-invasive data can provide broadly applicable insight into heterogeneity in biological age in natural populations.

Early-life conditions impact juvenile telomere length, but do not predict later life-history strategies or fitness in a wild vertebrate

Environmental conditions experienced during early life may have long-lasting effects on later-life phenotypes and fitness. Individuals experiencing poor early-life conditions may suffer subsequent fitness constraints. Alternatively, individuals may use a strategic "Predictive Adaptive Response" (PAR), whereby they respond-in terms of physiology or life-history strategy-to the conditions experienced in early life to maximize later-life fitness. Particularly, the Future Lifespan Expectation (FLE) PAR hypothesis predicts that when poor early-life conditions negatively impact an individual's physiological state, it will accelerate its reproductive schedule to maximize fitness during its shorter predicted life span. We aimed to measure the impact of early-life conditions and resulting fitness across individual lifetimes to test predictions of the FLE hypothesis in a wild, long-lived model species. Using a long-term individual-based dataset, we investigated how early-life conditions are linked with subsequent fitness in an isolated population of the Seychelles warbler Acrocephalus sechellensis. How individuals experience early-life environmental conditions may vary greatly, so we also tested whether telomere length-shorter telomers are a biomarker of an individual's exposure to stress-can provide an effective measure of the individual-specific impact of early-life conditions. Specifically, under the FLE hypothesis, we would expect shorter telomeres to be associated with accelerated reproduction. Contrary to expectations, shorter juvenile telomere length was not associated with poor early-life conditions, but instead with better conditions, probably as a result of faster juvenile growth. Furthermore, neither juvenile telomere length, nor other measures of early-life conditions, were associated with age of first reproduction or the number of offspring produced during early life in either sex. We found no support for the FLE hypothesis. However, for males, poor early-life body condition was associated with lower first-year survival and reduced longevity, indicating that poor early-life conditions pose subsequent fitness constraints. Our results also showed that using juvenile telomere length as a measure of early-life conditions requires caution, as it is likely to not only reflect environmental stress but also other processes such as growth.

Context-dependent fitness costs of reproduction despite stable body mass costs in an Arctic herbivore

The cost of reproduction on demographic rates is often assumed to operate through changing body condition. Several studies have found that reproduction depresses body mass more if the current conditions are severe, such as high population densities or adverse weather, than under benign environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated the association between the fitness components and body mass costs of reproduction. Using 25 years of individual-based capture-recapture data from Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, we built a novel Bayesian state-space model that jointly estimated interannual change in mass, annual reproductive success and survival, while accounting for incomplete observations. The model allowed us to partition the differential effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on both non-reproductive mass change and the body mass cost of reproduction, and to quantify their consequences on demographic rates. Contrary to our expectation, the body mass cost of reproduction (mean = -5.8 kg) varied little between years (CV = 0.08), whereas the between-year variation in body mass changes, that were independent of the previous year's reproductive state, varied substantially (CV = 0.4) in relation to autumn temperature and the amount of rain-on-snow in winter. This body mass loss led to a cost of reproduction on the next reproduction, which was amplified by the same environmental covariates, from a 10% reduction in reproductive success in benign years, to a 50% reduction in harsh years. The reproductive mass loss also resulted in a small reduction in survival. Our results show how demographic costs of reproduction, driven by interannual fluctuations in individual body condition, result from the balance between body mass costs of reproduction and body mass changes that are independent of previous reproductive state. We illustrate how a strong context-dependent fitness cost of reproduction can occur, despite a relatively fixed body mass cost of reproduction. This suggests that female reindeer display a very conservative energy allocation strategy, either aborting their reproductive attempt at an early stage or weaning at a relatively constant cost. Such a strategy might be common in species living in a highly stochastic and food limited environment.

Seasonal influence of snow conditions on Dall's sheep productivity in Wrangell-St Elias National Park and Preserve

Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) are endemic to alpine areas of sub-Arctic and Arctic northwest America and are an ungulate species of high economic and cultural importance. Populations have historically experienced large fluctuations in size, and studies have linked population declines to decreased productivity as a consequence of late-spring snow cover. However, it is not known how the seasonality of snow accumulation and characteristics such as depth and density may affect Dall's sheep productivity. We examined relationships between snow and climate conditions and summer lamb production in Wrangell-St Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska over a 37-year study period. To produce covariates pertaining to the quality of the snowpack, a spatially-explicit snow evolution model was forced with meteorological data from a gridded climate re-analysis from 1980 to 2017 and calibrated with ground-based snow surveys and validated by snow depth data from remote cameras. The best calibrated model produced an RMSE of 0.08 m (bias 0.06 m) for snow depth compared to the remote camera data. Observed lamb-to-ewe ratios from 19 summers of survey data were regressed against seasonally aggregated modelled snow and climate properties from the preceding snow season. We found that a multiple regression model of fall snow depth and fall air temperature explained 41% of the variance in lamb-to-ewe ratios (R2 = .41, F(2,38) = 14.89, p<0.001), with decreased lamb production following deep snow conditions and colder fall temperatures. Our results suggest the early establishment and persistence of challenging snow conditions is more important than snow conditions immediately prior to and during lambing. These findings may help wildlife managers to better anticipate Dall's sheep recruitment dynamics.

The accuracy and precision of age determination by dental cementum annuli in four northern cervids

Individual age is an important element in models of population demographics, but the limitations of the methods used for age determination are not always clear. We used known-age data from moose (Alces alces), red deer (Cervus elaphus), semi-domestic reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) and Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) to evaluate the accuracy and repeatability of age estimated by cementum annuli analysis of longitudinally sectioned permanent incisors. Four observers with varying experience performed blind duplicate age estimation of 37 specimens from each cervid. The relationship between known age and estimated age was linear, except for Svalbard reindeer where a quadratic model gave a slightly better fit. After correcting for observer ID and animal ID, there was a slightly declining probability to assess the correct age with increasing age for moose, red deer and Svalbard reindeer. Across cervids and observers, estimated age equalled known age in 69% of all readings, while 95% age ± 1 year. Predicted probability of correct age assessment for experienced observers was 93% for red deer, 89% for Svalbard reindeer, 84% for moose and 73% for semi-domestic reindeer. Regardless of observer experience and cervid, there was a high agreement between repeated assessments of a given animal’s tooth sections. The accuracy varied between cervids but was generally higher for observers with former ageing experience with a given cervid. We conclude that the accuracy of estimated age using longitudinally sectioned incisors is generally high, and even more so if performed by observers with former ageing experience of a given species. To ensure consistency over time, a reference material from known-age individuals for each species analysed should be available for calibration and training of observers.

Accelerated reproduction is not an adaptive response to early-life adversity in wild baboons

In humans and other long-lived species, harsh conditions in early life often lead to profound differences in adult life expectancy. In response, natural selection is expected to accelerate the timing and pace of reproduction in individuals who experience some forms of early-life adversity. However, the adaptive benefits of reproductive acceleration following early adversity remain untested. Here, we test a recent version of this theory, the internal predictive adaptive response (iPAR) model, by assessing whether accelerating reproduction following early-life adversity leads to higher lifetime reproductive success. We do so by leveraging 48 y of continuous, individual-based data from wild female baboons in the Amboseli ecosystem in Kenya, including prospective, longitudinal data on multiple sources of nutritional and psychosocial adversity in early life; reproductive pace; and lifetime reproductive success. We find that while early-life adversity led to dramatically shorter lifespans, individuals who experienced early adversity did not accelerate their reproduction compared with those who did not experience early adversity. Further, while accelerated reproduction predicted increased lifetime reproductive success overall, these benefits were not specific to females who experienced early-life adversity. Instead, females only benefited from reproductive acceleration if they also led long lives. Our results call into question the theory that accelerated reproduction is an adaptive response to both nutritional and psychosocial sources of early-life adversity in baboons and other long-lived species.

Social determinants of health and survival in humans and other animals

The social environment, both in early life and adulthood, is one of the strongest predictors of morbidity and mortality risk in humans. Evidence from long-term studies of other social mammals indicates that this relationship is similar across many species. In addition, experimental studies show that social interactions can causally alter animal physiology, disease risk, and life span itself. These findings highlight the importance of the social environment to health and mortality as well as Darwinian fitness-outcomes of interest to social scientists and biologists alike. They thus emphasize the utility of cross-species analysis for understanding the predictors of, and mechanisms underlying, social gradients in health.

A case for environmental statistics of early-life effects

There is enduring debate over the question of which early-life effects are adaptive and which ones are not. Mathematical modelling shows that early-life effects can be adaptive in environments that have particular statistical properties, such as reliable cues to current conditions and high autocorrelation of environmental states. However, few empirical studies have measured these properties, leading to an impasse. Progress, therefore, depends on research that quantifies cue reliability and autocorrelation of environmental parameters in real environments. These statistics may be different for social and non-social aspects of the environment. In this paper, we summarize evolutionary models of early-life effects. Then, we discuss empirical data on environmental statistics from a range of disciplines. We highlight cases where data on environmental statistics have been used to test competing explanations of early-life effects. We conclude by providing guidelines for new data collection and reflections on future directions.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Developing differences: early-life effects and evolutionary medicine'.

Modeling the evolution of sensitive periods

In the past decade, there has been monumental progress in our understanding of the neurobiological basis of sensitive periods. Little is known, however, about the evolution of sensitive periods. Recent studies have started to address this gap. Biologists have built mathematical models exploring the environmental conditions in which sensitive periods are likely to evolve. These models investigate how mechanisms of plasticity can respond optimally to experience during an individual's lifetime. This paper discusses the central tenets, insights, and predictions of these models, in relation to empirical work on humans and other animals. We also discuss which future models are needed to improve the bridge between theory and data, advancing their synergy. Our paper is written in an accessible manner and for a broad audience. We hope our work will contribute to recently emerging connections between the fields of developmental neuroscience and evolutionary biology.

Silver spoon effects are constrained under extreme adult environmental conditions

Early-life environmental conditions may generate cohort differences in individual fitness, subsequently affecting population growth rates. Three, nonmutually exclusive hypotheses predict the nature of these fitness differences: (1) silver spoon effects, where individuals born in good conditions perform better across the range of adult environments; (2) the "environmental saturation" hypothesis, where fitness differences only occur in intermediate adult environmental conditions; and (3) the "environmental matching" or "predictive adaptive response" (PAR) hypothesis, where fitness is highest when adult environmental conditions match those experienced in early life. We quantified the context-dependent effect of early-life environment on subsequent reproductive success, survival, and population growth rate (λ) of Svalbard reindeer, and explored how well it was explained by the three hypotheses. We found that good early-life conditions increased reproductive success compared to poor early-life conditions, but only when experiencing intermediate adult environmental conditions. This is the first example of what appears to be both "beneficial" and "detrimental environmental saturation" in a natural system. Despite weak early-life effects on survival, cohorts experiencing good early-life conditions contributed to higher population growth rates, when simulating realistic variation in adult environmental conditions. Our results show how the combination of a highly variable environment and biological constraints on fitness components can suppress silver spoon effects at both extremes of the adult environmental gradient.

Developmental responses to early-life adversity: Evolutionary and mechanistic perspectives

Adverse ecological and social conditions during early life are known to influence development, with rippling effects that may explain variation in adult health and fitness. The adaptive function of such developmental plasticity, however, remains relatively untested in long-lived animals, resulting in much debate over which evolutionary models are most applicable. Furthermore, despite the promise of clinical interventions that might alleviate the health consequences of early-life adversity, research on the proximate mechanisms governing phenotypic responses to adversity have been largely limited to studies on glucocorticoids. Here, we synthesize the current state of research on developmental plasticity, discussing both ultimate and proximate mechanisms. First, we evaluate the utility of adaptive models proposed to explain developmental responses to early-life adversity, particularly for long-lived mammals such as humans. In doing so, we highlight how parent-offspring conflict complicates our understanding of whether mothers or offspring benefit from these responses. Second, we discuss the role of glucocorticoids and a second physiological system-the gut microbiome-that has emerged as an additional, clinically relevant mechanism by which early-life adversity can influence development. Finally, we suggest ways in which nonhuman primates can serve as models to study the effects of early-life adversity, both from evolutionary and clinical perspectives.

Antler growth as a cost of reproduction in female reindeer

The costs of reproduction are important in shaping individual life histories, and hence population dynamics, but the mechanistic pathways of such costs are often unknown. Female reindeer have evolved antlers possibly due to interference competition on winter-feeding grounds. Here, we investigate if variation in antler size explains part of the cost of reproduction in late winter mass of female reindeer. We captured 440 individual Svalbard reindeer a total of 1426 times over 16 years and measured antler size and body mass in late winter, while presence of a 'calf-at-heel' was observed in summer. We found that reproductive females grew smaller antlers and weighed 4.3 kg less than non-reproductive females. Path analyses revealed that 14% of this cost of reproduction in body mass was caused by the reduced antler size. Our study is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that antlers in female Rangifer have evolved due to interference competition and provides evidence for antler growth as a cost of reproduction in females. Antler growth was constrained more by life history events than by variation in the environment, which contrasts markedly with studies on male antlers and horns, and hence increases our understanding of constraints on ornamentation and life history trade-offs.

Direct and indirect effects of early-life environment on lifetime fitness of bighorn ewes

Cohort effects, when a common environment affects long-term performance, can have a major impact on population dynamics. Very few studies of wild animals have obtained the necessary data to study the mechanisms leading to cohort effects. We exploited 42 years of individual-based data on bighorn sheep to test for causal links between birth density, body mass, age at first reproduction (AFR), longevity and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) using path analysis. Specifically, we investigated whether the effect of early-life environment on lifetime fitness was the result of indirect effects through body mass or direct effects of early-life environment on fitness. Additionally, we evaluated whether the effects of early-life environment were dependant on the environment experienced during adulthood. Contrary to expectation, the effect on LRS mediated through body mass was weak compared to the effects found via a delay in AFR, reduced longevity and the direct effect of birth density. Birth density also had an important indirect effect on LRS through reduced longevity, but only when adult density was high. Our results show that the potential long-term consequences of a harsh early-life environment on fitness are likely to be underestimated if investigations are limited to body mass instead of fitness at several life stages, or if the interactions between past and present environment are ignored.

Biased estimation of trends in cohort effects: the problems with age-period-cohort models in ecology

Environmental variation can generate life-long similarities among individuals born in the same breeding event, so-called cohort effects. Studies of cohort effects have to account for the potentially confounding effects of current conditions (observation year) and age of individuals. However, estimation of such models is hampered by inherent collinearity, as age is the difference between observation year (period) and cohort year. The difficulties of separating linear trends in any of the three variables in Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models are the subject of ongoing debate in social sciences and medicine but have remained unnoticed in ecology. After reviewing the use of APC models, we investigate the consequences of model specification on the estimation of cohort effects, using both simulated data and empirical data from a long-term individual-based study of reindeer in Svalbard. We demonstrate that APC models are highly sensitive to the model's treatment of age, period and cohort, which may generate spurious temporal trends in cohort effects. Avoiding grouping ages and using environmental covariates believed to be drivers of temporal variation reduces the APC identification problem. Nonetheless, ecologists should use caution, given that the specification issues in APC models may have substantial impacts on estimated effect sizes and therefore conclusions.

Ageing with a silver-spoon: A meta-analysis of the effect of developmental environment on senescence

What determines variation between individuals in how they senesce, and are environmental conditions experienced during development relevant to late-life performance? We report a meta-analysis of studies of wild populations to determine how the quality of the environment experienced during development affects rates of survival and reproductive senescence. From studies of 14 bird or mammal species, we calculated effect sizes for the interaction between the effects of environmental quality during development and age in predicting survival (N = 18) or reproduction (N = 30) over time in late life. We found no evidence that developmental environment affected rates of survival senescence (βmean = -1.2 × 10-4 ± 0.022SE). However, a better developmental environment was associated with slower rates of reproductive senescence in late life (βmean = 0.062 ± 0.023SE), indicating a small, but significant, "silver-spoon" effect of early-life conditions that persisted through to late life. Our results illustrate how the effects of environmental conditions during development can persist throughout life, and indicate one possible cause of phenotypic plasticity in senescence.

Echoes of Early Life: Recent Insights From Mathematical Modeling

In the last decades, developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD) has emerged as a central framework for studying early‐life effects, that is, the impact of fetal and early postnatal experience on adult functioning. Apace with empirical progress, theoreticians have built mathematical models that provide novel insights for DOHaD. This article focuses on three of these insights, which show the power of environmental noise (i.e., imperfect indicators of current and future conditions) in shaping development. Such noise can produce: (a) detrimental outcomes even in ontogenetically stable environments, (b) individual differences in sensitive periods, and (c) early‐life effects tailored to predicted future somatic states. We argue that these insights extend DOHaD and offer new research directions.

Developmental plasticity: Bridging research in evolution and human health

Early life experiences can have profound and persistent effects on traits expressed throughout the life course, with consequences for later life behavior, disease risk, and mortality rates. The shaping of later life traits by early life environments, known as 'developmental plasticity', has been well-documented in humans and non-human animals, and has consequently captured the attention of both evolutionary biologists and researchers studying human health. Importantly, the parallel significance of developmental plasticity across multiple fields presents a timely opportunity to build a comprehensive understanding of this phenomenon. We aim to facilitate this goal by highlighting key outstanding questions shared by both evolutionary and health researchers, and by identifying theory and empirical work from both research traditions that is designed to address these questions. Specifically, we focus on: (i) evolutionary explanations for developmental plasticity, (ii) the genetics of developmental plasticity and (iii) the molecular mechanisms that mediate developmental plasticity. In each section, we emphasize the conceptual gains in human health and evolutionary biology that would follow from filling current knowledge gaps using interdisciplinary approaches. We encourage researchers interested in developmental plasticity to evaluate their own work in light of research from diverse fields, with the ultimate goal of establishing a cross-disciplinary understanding of developmental plasticity.

The influence of weather conditions during gestation on life histories in a wild Arctic ungulate

The internal predictive adaptive response (internal PAR) hypothesis predicts that individuals born in poor conditions should start to reproduce earlier if they are likely to have reduced performance in later life. However, whether this is the case remains unexplored in wild populations. Here, we use longitudinal data from a long-term study of Svalbard reindeer to examine age-related changes in adult female life-history responses to environmental conditions experienced in utero as indexed by rain-on-snow (ROS_utero). We show that females experiencing high ROS_utero had reduced reproductive success only from 7 years of age, independent of early reproduction. These individuals were able to maintain the same annual reproductive success between 2 and 6 years as phenotypically superior conspecifics that experienced low ROS_utero Young females born after high ROS_utero engage in reproductive events at lower body mass (about 2.5 kg less) than those born after low ROS_utero The mean fitness of females that experienced poor environmental conditions in early life was comparable with that of females exposed to good environmental conditions in early life. These results are consistent with the idea of internal PAR and suggest that the life-history responses to early-life conditions can buffer the delayed effects of weather on population dynamics.