Global predictors of alien plant establishment success: combining niche and trait proxies

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.

Long-term Spartina alterniflora invasion simplified soil seed bank and regenerated community in a coastal marsh wetland

The coastal wetland is easily invaded by alien species due to locating in the land and sea transitional area. As a potential driving regeneration force, the soil seed bank is vital to the community restoration and species diversity protection. To reveal the long-term Spartina alterniflora invasion impact on the soil seed banks and regenerated communities, we investigated the seed banks under the different vegetation types (S. alterniflora, Phragmites australis, Scirpus mariqueter, ruderal and unvegetated site) and soil depths (0-5 and 5-10 cm) in the coastal salt marsh wetland, Chongming island, eastern China. The results showed that the soil seed bank richness and species density under different vegetation types were higher than the aboveground vegetation, and those of 0-5 cm seed banks were higher than 5-10 cm, except for the unvegetated site. The species richness and S. alterniflora seed proportion in the seed banks under S. alterniflora communities (S.AS) were lower and larger respectively than those of other sites. The species composition between S.AS and the aboveground communities showed high similarity with aggregation phylogenetic structures in two soil depths. The seed bank variations at 0-5 and 5-10 cm depths were interpreted 3.03% and 2.25% by the aboveground communities, while 4.92% and 5.55% were interpreted by the soil microbial biomass. The SEM model explained 98.1% and 91.8% of the seed banks richness at the 0-5 cm depth and 5-10 cm depth, respectively, and explained 98.8% and 46.1% of the seed banks species density at the 0-5 cm depth and 5-10 cm depth, respectively. The aboveground vegetation biomass and abundance directly affected the 0-5 cm seed banks richness and species density, while its height and biomass only affected the 5-10 cm seed banks species density. The 0-10 cm soil depth microbial biomass indirectly affected the 0-5 cm seed banks richness and species density, while affected the 5-10 cm seed banks richness. Soil physical and chemical properties only indirectly affected the 0-5 cm seed banks species density. The results provided a reference for the ecological evaluation of the impacts of S. alterniflora invasion into the coastal salt marsh wetland of eastern China, and guidance for the protection and restoration of the native plant communities.

Patterns of phylogenetic relatedness of non-native plants across the introduction-naturalization-invasion continuum in China

Human activities have caused the exchange of species among different parts of the world. When introduced species become naturalized and invasive, they may cause great negative impacts on the environment and human societies, and pose significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystem structure. Knowledge on phylogenetic relatedness between native and non-native species and among non-native species at different stages of species invasion may help for better understanding the drivers of species invasion. Here, I analyze a comprehensive data set including both native and non-native angiosperm species in China to determine phylogenetic relatedness of introduced species across a full invasion continuum (from introduction through naturalization to invasion). This study found that (1) introduced plants are a phylogenetically clustered subset of overall (i.e. native plus non-native) angiosperm flora, (2) naturalized plants are a phylogenetically clustered subset of introduced plants, and (3) invasive plants are a phylogenetically clustered subset of naturalized plants. These patterns hold regardless of spatial scales examined (i.e. national versus provincial scale) and whether basal- or tip-weighted metric of phylogenetic relatedness is considered. These findings are consistent with Darwin's preadaptation hypothesis.

Consistently high heat tolerance acclimation in response to a simulated heatwave across species from the broadly distributed Acacia genus

When leaves exceed their thermal threshold during heatwaves, irreversible damage to the leaf can accumulate. However, few studies have explored short-term acclimation of leaves to heatwaves that could help plants to prevent heat damage with increasing heatwave intensity. Here, we studied the heat tolerance of PSII (PHT) in response to a heatwave in Acacia species from across a strong environmental gradient in Australia. We compared PHT metrics derived from temperature-dependent chlorophyll fluorescence response curves (T-F 0 ) before and during a 4-day 38°C heatwave in a controlled glasshouse experiment. We found that the 15 Acacia species displayed surprisingly large and consistent PHT acclimation responses with a mean tolerance increase of 12°C (range, 7.7-19.1°C). Despite species originating from diverse climatic regions, neither maximum temperature of the warmest month nor mean annual precipitation at origin were clear predictors of PHT. To our knowledge, these are some of the largest measured acclimation responses of PHT from a controlled heatwave experiment. This remarkable capacity could partially explain why this genus has become more diverse and common as the Australian continent became more arid and suggests that the presence of Acacia in Australian ecosystems will remain ubiquitous with climate change.

Indigenous and introduced Collembola differ in desiccation resistance but not its plasticity in response to temperature

Biological invasions have significant ecological and economic impacts. Much attention is therefore focussed on predicting establishment and invasion success. Trait-based approaches are showing much promise, but are mostly restricted to investigations of plants. Although the application of these approaches to animals is growing rapidly, it is rare for arthropods and restricted mostly to investigations of thermal tolerance. Here we study the extent to which desiccation tolerance and its phenotypic plasticity differ between introduced (nine species) and indigenous (seven species) Collembola, specifically testing predictions of the 'ideal weed' and 'phenotypic plasticity' hypotheses of invasion biology. We do so on the F2 generation of adults in a full factorial design across two temperatures, to elicit desiccation responses, for the phenotypic plasticity trials. We also determine whether basal desiccation resistance responds to thermal laboratory natural selection. We first show experimentally that acclimation to different temperatures elicits changes to cuticular structure and function that are typically associated with water balance, justifying our experimental approach. Our main findings reveal that basal desiccation resistance differs, on average, between the indigenous and introduced species, but that this difference is weaker at higher temperatures, and is driven by particular taxa, as revealed by phylogenetic generalised least squares approaches. By contrast, the extent or form of phenotypic plasticity does not differ between the two groups, with a 'hotter is better' response being most common. Beneficial acclimation is characteristic of only a single species. Laboratory natural selection had little influence on desiccation resistance over 8-12 generations, suggesting that environmental filtering rather than adaptation to new environments may be an important factor influencing Collembola invasions.

An exotic plant successfully invaded as a passenger driven by light availability

Invasive exotic plant species (IEPs) are widely distributed across the globe, but whether IEPs are drivers or passengers of habitat change in the invaded spaces remains unclear. Here, we carried out a vegetation and soil survey in 2018 and two independent field experiments (Pedicularis kansuensis removal in 2014 and 2015, and fertilization experiment since 2012) and found that the invasive annual P. kansuensis was at a disadvantage in light competition compared with perennial native grasses, but the successful invasion of P. kansuensis was due to the sufficient light resources provided by the reduced coverage of the native species. Conversely, nitrogen enrichment can effectively inhibit P. kansuensis invasion by increasing the photocompetitive advantage of the native species. sP. kansuensis invasion did not reduce species richness, but did increase plant community coverage, productivity and soil nutrients. Furthermore, the removal of P. kansuensis had little effect on the plant community structure and soil properties. Our results suggest that the passenger model perfectly explains the benign invasive mechanism of P. kansuensis. The invasion "ticket" of P. kansuensis is a spare ecological niche for light resources released by overgrazing.

Persistent soil seed banks promote naturalisation and invasiveness in flowering plants

With globalisation facilitating the movement of plants and seeds beyond the native range, preventing potentially harmful introductions requires knowledge of what drives the successful establishment and spread of alien plants. Here, we examined global-scale relationships between naturalisation success (incidence and extent) and invasiveness, soil seed bank properties (type and densities) and key species traits (seed mass, seed dormancy and life form) for 2350 species of angiosperms. Naturalisation and invasiveness were strongly associated with the ability to form persistent (vs. transient) seed banks but relatively weakly with seed bank densities and other traits. Our findings suggest that seed bank persistence is a trait that better captures the ability to become naturalised and invasive compared to seed traits more widely available in trait databases. Knowledge of seed persistence can contribute to our ability to predict global naturalisation and invasiveness and to identify potentially invasive flowering plants before they are introduced.

Local climate adaptation and gene flow in the native range of two co-occurring fruit moths with contrasting invasiveness

Invasive species pose increasing threats to global biodiversity and ecosystems. While previous studies have characterized successful invaders based on ecological traits, characteristics related to evolutionary processes have rarely been investigated. Here we compared gene flow and local adaptation using demographic analyses and outlier tests in two co-occurring moth pests across their common native range of China, one of which (the peach fruit moth, Carposina sasakii) has maintained its native distribution, while the other (the oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta) has expanded its range globally during the past century. We found that both species showed a pattern of genetic differentiation and an evolutionary history consistent with a common southwestern origin and northward expansion in their native range. However, for the noninvasive species, genetic differentiation was closely aligned with the environment, and there was a relatively low level of gene flow, whereas in the invasive species, genetic differentiation was associated with geography. Genome scans indicated stronger patterns of climate-associated loci in the noninvasive species. While strong local adaptation and reduced gene flow across its native range may have decreased the invasiveness of C. sasakii, this requires further validation with additional comparisons of invasive and noninvasive species across their native range.

Invasive alien plant species: Their impact on environment, ecosystem services and human health

Ecological perturbations caused by biotic invasion have been identified as a growing threat to global sustainability. Invasive alien plants species (IAPS) are considered to be one of the major drivers of biodiversity loss and thereby altering the ecosystem services and socio-economic conditions through different mechanisms. Although the ecological impacts of IAPS are well documented, there is a dearth of studies regarding their economic quantification, livelihood considerations, biotechnological prospects (phytoremediation, bioenergy, phyto-synthesis of nanoparticles, biomedical, industrial applications etc.) and human health risk assessments of IAPS. In this context, the current panoramic review aimed to investigate the environmental, socio-ecological and health risks posed by IAPS as well as the compounded impact of IAPS with habitat fragmentation, climate and land use changes. To this end, the need of an integrated trans-disciplinary research is emphasized for the sustainable management of IAPS. The management prospects can be further strengthened through their linkage with geo-spatial technologies (remote sensing and GIS) by mapping and monitoring the IAPS spread. Further, the horizon of IAPS management is expanded to ecological indicator perspectives of IAPS, biosecurity, and risk assessment protocols with critical discussion. Moreover, positive as well as negative implications of the IAPS on environment, health, ecosystem services and socio-economy (livelihood) are listed so that a judicious policy framework could be developed for the IAPS management in order to mitigate the human health implications.

Evolutionary history predicts high-impact invasions by herbivorous insects

A long-standing goal of invasion biology is to identify factors driving highly variable impacts of non-native species. Although hypotheses exist that emphasize the role of evolutionary history (e.g., enemy release hypothesis & defense-free space hypothesis), predicting the impact of non-native herbivorous insects has eluded scientists for over a century.Using a census of all 58 non-native conifer-specialist insects in North America, we quantified the contribution of over 25 factors that could affect the impact they have on their novel hosts, including insect traits (fecundity, voltinism, native range, etc.), host traits (shade tolerance, growth rate, wood density, etc.), and evolutionary relationships (between native and novel hosts and insects).We discovered that divergence times between native and novel hosts, the shade and drought tolerance of the novel host, and the presence of a coevolved congener on a shared host, were more predictive of impact than the traits of the invading insect. These factors built upon each other to strengthen our ability to predict the risk of a non-native insect becoming invasive. This research is the first to empirically support historically assumed hypotheses about the importance of evolutionary history as a major driver of impact of non-native herbivorous insects.Our novel, integrated model predicts whether a non-native insect not yet present in North America will have a one in 6.5 to a one in 2,858 chance of causing widespread mortality of a conifer species if established (R 2 = 0.91) Synthesis and applications. With this advancement, the risk to other conifer host species and regions can be assessed, and regulatory and pest management efforts can be more efficiently prioritized.